Homegrown terror. And joining me this morning for insight and analysis are veteran journalist and author of a new book about cyber terrorism, ted koppel. Helene cooper of the new york times. Molly ball of the atlantic and jerry seib of the wall street journal. Welcome to sunday, its meet the press. Good sunday morning. 50 days until voters start expressing their opinion. We have two new polls on the republican race for president. According to what may be developing into a threeman race, lets get to these numbers. Donald trump is back on top in our new national nbc news wall street journal poll sitting at 27 . Up four points since late october, the highest number hes had in our poll so far. Ted cruz is surging, now in second, sitting at 22, more than double where he was in october. Marco rubio also on the rise. And look at old ben carson, the onetime leader. Believe it or not, he led in the last nbc news wall street journal poll. Hes dropped dramatically to 11 . Heres the rest of the candidates who picked up at least 1 in our poll. Jeb bush still stuck in Single Digits. Then this bombshell out of iowa. Cruise surging into the lead with 31 , a 21point gain since october. Trump is Holding Steady at 21 followed by carson who, here, too has crashed. Hes down 15 points since october. Then rubio and bush. So what we think were seeing thats emerging here is perhaps a threeway race with trump and cruz representing the insurgents at the republican gate and marco rubio counting on becoming the candidate of the faction he needs but is reluctant to acknowledge, the republican establishment. I caught up with senator rubio in greenville, South Carolina and i asked him if donald trump had been good for the Republican Party and rubios candidacy. Obviously i dont agree with everything he says. Theres a lot we have a difference of opinion on but we cant ignore hes touched on issues people are concerned about. If you look at the statement he is made this week, obviously i think he made them to recapture the limelight after having lost it and i do think we lost some of the focus on the attacks in San Bernardino and focused on a plan that isnt a plan and is never going to happen. But he is reminding us in that process that people are really upset and scared. Theyre worried. And i think the president made things worst with his speech, not better. Thats what hes focused in on. You call the comments offensive and outlandish. Thats different than the tone you took with me right now. Its offensive and outlandish for example that its not going to happen, number one, i violates the things we think about in our country. But also the practical reality. That in order for us to eidentiy homegrown violent extremism, well need the cooperation of muslim communities in this country. They may be the first ones to see it. Theyre the ones that will see radicalization happening at a mosque or in the community or even among their own family members so and the other smart theres a narrative that isis and other jihadists pose that this is a war between muslims and the rest of the world and that sort of victimization narrative is something we shouldnt contribute to. On the other hand we have to acknowledge that there is a radical element in islam, jihadism, that needs to be called by name and needs to be confronted. About three months ago you were asked whether donald trump was qualified to be president and you said so far you hadnt heard anything to make him qualified but give it time. Where have you in heard today. The most important thing for a president is to be commander in chief and that means having an understanding of the complex issue on foreign policy. Foreign policy presents with us hard choice, not black or white choices. Often times choices are down to two less than ideal outcomes but you have to choose which is the best for the country. I personally believe he continues to struggle to articulate that. So that makes him unqualified . Well, obviously i think im the most qualified. Thats why im running. Is he qualified at all . I have very strong reservations about what hes expressed about his understanding on these Critical Issues before our country so he has another month before the iowa caucus. Do you think in a month he can learn . Hes not alone. I think others in the field have confused us as well in terms of where they stand on these issues. You just said that the president s speech made it worse. If you were president in a moment like that, what would you have done . What would you have said . Well, first i would have acknowledged why people are concerned and i would have acknowledged that he acknowledged it. Beyond just acknowledging it in the way he did. I would have said, look, i know people, i personally know people that have told me theyre not taking trip this is new years because of theyre afraid of what theyre reading in the press, people in have always taken a tress. Perhaps its anecdotaanecdotal. We can defeat them. What were doing now is not enough. And i honestly believe we need more air strikes, you cant defeat them from the air. You must do two additional things we are not doing now. Number one is put together a Global Coalition on the ground made up primarily of arab sunnis. Well work with the kurds in the kurdish areas and even with christians but isis needs to be feeted on the ground and rejected ideologically by sunni arab themselves. It will require embedding alongside them special operators from the u. S. And other international partners. And we need to start cross messaging these people, countermessaging, propaganda has played a war in every conflict. I think this is critical. Isis is portraying themselves that has extraordinary caliphate, that life is glorious under isis rule, nothing can be further from the truth. So we need to invest more time, for example, explaining to people what happens to noniraqis that join isis. Theyre treated as cannon fodder. Everything you just outlined, though, the administration would argue theyre thats all part of their strategy. Sounds like you basically agree with the president s strategy, you just might implement some part of it differently. Maybe rhetorically some of it is but most of it is not. They have a Propaganda Program that frankly outsiders have said hasnt worked and maybe government cant be behind it. I dont believe that we have. Do you think government can do i dont think a couple twitter posts from the state department is a true anti would you model after radio well, absolutely but it would require us to work with muslim communities around the world that are not islamists to counter message to young people, to counter message to them about why this is not true islam as these Muslim Leaders argue and, in fact, what life under isis control is like. Much more widespread than what were doing now. On the ground i do not believe the president is doing what im outlining. Your campaign has been critical of one of your rivals, senator ted cruz for his vote on the usa freedom act and senator mike lee, somebody you have a tax plan with, you guys are allies on a lot of things, he has said that your rhetoric has been not based in fact. And that its not true what youve been saying that somehow federal officials cant track use the usa freedom act, use the court to track the phone numbers. Well, on this issue not only is he wrong but others that argue that are wrong. We had a program that allowed us to collect the phone records. Basically the phone bill, not the content of your conversations, your emails, anything like, that just your phone bill. Only 16 people in the u. S. Government could look at it and only if they got a court order from a fisa court to look at those phone records. And they retain them for a significant period of time. Under this new law, we are trusting the phone companies to hold those records and all of these phone companies have different period of times when they hold it. Some will hold it for 18 months, some six months. In is a valuable tool. If you have identified someone as a potential terrorist or someone who carries out a terrorist activity, the ability to look at who theyve been calling and talking to is part of a larger puzzle that you can put together to see what network theyve been working with, who theyve been communicating with. We have lost that capacity in many cases. Is this a commanderinchief test for senator cruz . I believe it is for all the candidates. In the case of senator cruz my argument is it wasnt just the intelligence vote. He talks tough on these issues, for example hes going to carpet bomb isis. But the only budget hes ever voted for in his time in the senate is a budget that cut defense spending by more than barack obama proposes we cut it. He voted against the Defense Authorization act every year it came up. And that is the bill and i assume if he voted against it he would veto it as president thats the bill that funds our troops and the ierm dome for israel. So my point is each time hes had to choose between Strong National defense and some of the isolationist tendencies in american politics he sides with the isolationists. This is an important issue to have a debate over. Its not personal. Theres been some questions on some of your even your supporters and people that are pulling for you that say wheres rubio going to win . Hes not playing to win iowa. Hes not playing to win New Hampshire. At some point, you know, donald trump aside, you have to win if youre going to win the nomination. Look, well all be judged at the end of the race. At the end of the race things dont work out well be subject to criticism. Lets wait and see how the votes are counted. I feel confident in our plan. Are you trying to win iowa . Im trying to do well and win everywhere we campaign. Im not running for second or third place in any state in this country. Youre trying to win iowa . Im trying to win everywhere we can. I always go for first place, it doesnt always work out this way. In many elections strong a strong second place is viewed at first place. You cant campaign to take second or third. You are viewed as the establishment candidate. How do you feel . It is viewed as a slight. Is it an attack . It reflects my history. I wouldnt be here if the establishment didnt want me. I have consistently voted against some people who you would identify as the establishment are for. When i chose to get into this race i had people come forward and tell me i shouldnt run, it wasnt my turn. By the way, if i was the establishment favorite i would have raised more than 6 million in the last quarter. That all being said, the truth is, we ultimately will need to unify the party. The Republican Party cannot be elected unless it is together, working together in the same direction and that alone is not enough. We cant win without unifying our party but we cant just win by unifying our party. We must also attract new people to our cause and we do that not by changing our principles but by applying our principles of limited government, Free Enterprise and Strong National defense to the hopes and dreams of concerns of Everyday Americans some of whom have not heard from republicans in a long time. Are you going to work to overturn samesex marriage . I disagree with it on constitutional zblound are you going to overturn it . If you want to change the definition of marriage, you need to go to state legislatures and get them to change it. States have always defined marriage. Thats why some people get married in las vegas by an elvis impersonator and in florida you have to wait a couple days. Every state has different marriage laws but i do not believe the court system is the right way to do it because i dont believe its done now. Are you going to work to overturn it . You cant work to overturn it. You can do a constitutional amendment. That would be conceding that the current constitution is somehow wrong and needs to be fixed. I dont think the current constitution gives the federal government the power to regulate marriage. That belongs at the state and local level. And thats why if you want to change the definition of marriage, which is what this argue system about, its not about discrimination, its about the definition of a specific traditional and ageold institution, that definitional change, if you want to change it, you have a right to petition your state legislature and your elected representatives to do it. What is wrong is that the Supreme Court has found this hidden constitutional delight 200 years of jurisprudence had not discovered and overturned the will of voters in florida where over 60 passed a constitutional amendment that defined marriage in the state constitution as the union of one man and one woman. So are you accepting the idea of samesex marriage . Well, its current law. I dont believe any case law is settled law. Any future Supreme Court can change it and ultimately i will appoint Supreme Court justices that will interpret the constitution as originally constructed. You can see the cot people are and extented version of my sit down including health care, hes getting credit for from the right from helping to undo a big portion of obamacare. And the question of whether hes putting florida special interests ahead of his conservative principles on the issue of big sugar. Thats on meetthepressnbc. Com. When we come back, fear and loathing on the campaign trail. Why so many in the Republican Party fear trump and loa [ male announcer ] whether it takes 200,000 parts, 800,000 hours of supercomputing time, 3 million lines of code, 40,000 sets of eyes, or a million sleepless nights. Whether its building the worlds most advanced satellite, the space station, or the next leap in unmanned systems. At boeing, one thing never changes. Our passion to make it real. 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Theres a truisim in american Politics Democrats fall in love, republicans fall in line. So we thought. Not this year. The opposite has happened. Democrats are falling in line with their established candidate, Hillary Clinton, while its republicans, like a rebellious teenager, smitten with the bad boy on the motorbike in donald trump. And the parents in this case the republican establishment are taking a dim view of that relationship, terrify add trump nomination would wipe out republicans up and down the ballot. Its no longer a silent majority, it a test noisy majority. As donald trump weathers yet another storm of his own making are you racist . I am the least racist person you have ever met. I am the least racist person. The republican establishment is grappling with how to keep the nomination away from trump without alienating his supporters. The partys leaders in washington rushed to condemn Donald Trumps plan to ban muslim immigration. This is not conservatisconse. What was proposed yesterday is not what this party stands for. That would be completely inconsistent with american values. The root of the panic . That trump at the top of the ticket will mean a wipeout down the ballot, losing the senate for republicans and even putting the house in jeopardy. But while trumps 2016 rivals warned republicans he is unelectable if he continues to do what hes doing hes destroying the party, it will be a generation before we can overcome this. Maybe never. All this helps is Hillary Clinton for sure. Those establishment rivals are mired in Single Digits and trumps latest comments dont appear to have damaged his standing among certain republican primary voters. Whos cutting off peoples heads in whos bombing buildings . Whos bombing airplanes . Not the christians. Not the jewish, not the buddhists, its the muslims. 41 of americans believe Trumps Campaign statements are frequently insulting and have the wrong approach. But thats true of just 16 of republicans. Conservative rival ted cruz is raising questions in private about trumps judgment. Who am i comfortable having their finger on the button . Now thats a question of strength but its also a question of judgment. But in public avoiding a cage match, tweeting sorry to disappoint, real donald trump is terrific. Dealwithit. Behind closed doors, republican officials are preparing for the possibility of a contested convention. On the record, the party chair is treating trump cautiously telling a conservative newspaper he disagrees with trumps muslim ban but turning down requests to make that point on camera. And republican officials worry about angering Trump Supporters. A new coalition of White Working Class voters fighting to remake the gop who themselves may be open to an independent run by trump. If im two votes short, i have a problem because ill have to go into that convention and im dealing with all these blood sucker politicians and theyll make their deals. But if i get the number of delegates, theres not a thing they can do and ill do fine with the establishment. I was a member of the establishment six months ago. Im joined by a panel thats already laughing here. Former nightline hose ted koppel, author of a new book about cyber terrorism called lights out, a cyber attack, a nation unprepared. Then helene cooper, pentagon correspondent for the new york times, molly boll of the atlantic and jerry seib who is the bureau chief. Jerry, let me start with you, trump, trump, trump, trump. But you were talking about fear and loathing. Heres the number in our poll that has republican establishment people in fear and loathing mode. 59 of the people that we surveyed have a negative view of donald trump. 47 have a very negative view of donald trump. So thats those are tough numbers in a general election. Thats the specter they worry about. However, having said that, you know, there is no sign that the block of people within the republican electorate who support donald trump are going anywhere. Theres been no erosion. Not since june, really, has there been any question who was the leading candidate in the Republican Party. And these are new voters. Will they be republican primary voters . Well find out. Molly, whats been interesting here is the people will look at these polls today and say trumps falling. No, trumps increased his support. Not only here, its theres other stuff going on. Hes just not growing anymore. The story of this race has been remarkably stable. When you look at it over the long term, its been remarkably stable. In 2012 we had different frontrunners over and over and over again. There has been one frontrunner in this republican primary and we talk about it like its changing because theres churn underneath. People look at these polls with trump on top and theres a blindness that you hear among the republican establishment or pundits like they pretend hes not there. He is there, he is staying there and he is remarkably stable and the only thing that is going to take him out is somebody else doing better by consolidating the rest of the vote and this is what youre seeing in the register poll, in the iowa poll. When i talk to these establishment republicans, as we like to call them, cruz scares them more than trump. Because trump makes cruz look reasonable. Thats interesting. I want to show you. The other candidates dont want to outright say they dont want to support trump. Theyre afraid of it. Let me show you a roundup on that question from the candidates themselves. Thats a hypothetical i reject out of hand that he is going to be the nominee. I will absolutely support the republican nominee but i hope and intend for that nominee to be me. I dont answer theoreticals. I dont answer hypotheticals. What i am firmly convinced so that donald trump will not be our nominee. I signed a pledge, thats why you have to be careful with pledges you sign, that i would support the republican nominee. But i will tell you, sir, theres no way that donald trump is going to be president. All right, so if you want to know why they wont say that, why they wont say they wont support him, well, i asked republican senator jeff flake of arizona and he gave me the honest dodge as to why. Take a listen. If republicans say now we will not support the ultimate nominee, that gives donald trump license to run as a third party candidate. Ted, theres the issue. Well, theres the issue and, of course, theyre all old enough to remember Lyndon Baines johnson who once said if you get down into the mud with a hog and you wrestle with a hog, the hog loves it and youre both going to get dirty. They dont want to get dirty and they know that trump love this is kind of thing. And your polls and yours are whats giving them the material that they need. Its the oxygen the Trump Campaign requires. A poll every three or four days showing him where he is. A poll every three or four hours. [ laughter ] youre absolutely right. Youre giving them too much credit with three or four days. And this is the that is the oxygen for trump and the fear of the republicans. Theyre afraid of him attacking them. They are. They are, because theyre also afraid of alienating the people who support him because those people they all believe are going to be up for grabs when the what they believe is going to be the inevitable happens and trump doesnt win the nomination and they want to make sure theyve got his voters. Its so interesting watching how the republicans navigate this because i think the party seems to have moved to the right as a whole anyway and now its almost as if theres this quandary in the heart of the party in how far to the right. Can they embrace these voters and still win the general election . Where has it moved . Is it the right . In the poll, trump is getting motion of his support from republicans who consider themselves moderates or liberals. Its not the hard delight is supporting trump. Its not the well, its a new group of people. Hes not ideologically conservative. Its largely identity based, demographic based but not the right per say. Youre right about the remember party overall. But its not the tea party or what have you thats powering. Among those groups, tea party voters, talk radio listeners, social values voters, ted cruz is winning the people. Donald trump is not winning those people. Theres a different kind of populo populous, they call themselves more moderate than conservative part of the party. Thats where his strength is. Ted, these are the voters that have felt outcasted, their parents probably felt like outcasts in the 60s and 70s during that social upheaval. But the irony is they think theyre being tough on isis and trump thinks hes being tough on isis. Senator rubio in his interview with you touched on it very, very lightly. Donald trump is in effect the recruiter in chief for isis. Isis wants nothing more right now than to ve the world divided into judeochristian on one side and the islamic world on the other. Thats exactly what trump is doing for them. I think its time we started thinking about what isis wants and then not doing it. And this is something we are taking a look at. Is this stuff becoming new isis propaganda . By the way, ill pause here a bit and do more of this. Nbc news is announcing today were teaming up with the web site politifact to help us fact check key moments on the campaign trail, have a third party grade these things, including interviews here on meet the press. Youll see their findings on our web site, meetthepressnbc. Com including a fact check well post later today on one of senator rubios statement from my earlier interview. Back in a moment with secretary of state john kerry on the climate agreement in paris and the fears here at home on the idea of homegrown terrorism. Proud of you, son. Ge a manufacturer. Well thats why i dug this out for you. Its your grandpappys hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. It meant a lot to him. Yes, ge makes powerful machines. But ill be writing the code that will allow those machines to share information with each other. Ill be changing the way the world works. interrupting you cant pick it up, can you . Go ahead. He cant lift the hammer. Its okay though youre going to change the world. Heres a little healthy advice. Eat well, live well, and take of what makes you, you. Right down to your skin with aveeno® aveeno® daily moisturizing lotion with the goodness of active naturals® oat and 5 vital nutrients for healthier looking skin in just one day. 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Were trying to give them all the feeling of being at the stadium. The microsoft cloud gives us the scalability to communicate exactly the content that people want to see. It will help people connect to their passion of living real madrid. Welcome back. Earlier we showed you where all the republican candidates stand for the white house. But in our nbc news wall street journal poll, we asked who would you choose if the race narrowed down to these five candidates . Heres what we found out. The race narrows to three lanes. In lane one, establishment lane, bush and rubio. Their totals add up to 30 . Cruz and carson, their lane of evangelical christian conservatives, they add up to 37 . Then theres the trump lane, all of its own. He hits 30 . So what distinguishes these lanes . Well, when it comes to the establishment lane, its education. Here, bush and rubio. 56 of their combined supporters have a college degree. Lets go to the evangelical lane. In that second one, the carson and cruz voters. 56 of their voters attend church weekly. Thats probably the biggest distinguishing characteristic. Now lets go to trump. Because in this third and final lane it appears to be a new force in the Republican Party, at least when it comes to primary politics. For instance, 64 of his supporters didnt attend college. The polar opposite of the establishment lane. Then this fact, 61 of his supporters dont attend church weekly. Again, opposite of the evangelical wing. Theres one more distinguishing characteristic with worth pointing out. This is a bluecollar vote, again, that hasnt been a force in republican primaries before. 54 of Trump Supporters earn less than 75,000 a year. So the question is, to get the nomination, somebody is going to have to succeed in uniting at least two of these three lanes. Whos got the best shot of that . Right now, you might say it could be ted cruz. We shall see, its something to watch for. Later in the broadcast, well look at the chance we may have our first contested convention in 40 years if there is no consolidation. But up next, secretary of state john kerry on the Climate Change agreement and on fears o 40 of the streetlights in detroit, at one point, did not work. You had some blocks and you had major thoroughfares and corridors that were just totally pitch black. Those things had to change. We wanted to restore our lighting system in the city. You can have the greatest dreams in the world, but unless you can finance those dreams, it doesnt happen. At the time that the bankruptcy filing was done, the Public Lighting Authority had a hard time of finding a bank. Citi did not run away from the table like some other bankers did. Citi had the strength to help us go to the credit markets and raise the money. Its a brighter day in detroit. People can see better when theyre out doing their tasks, young people are moving back in town, the kids are feeling safer while they walk to school. And folks are making investments and the community is moving forward. 40 of the lights were out, but theyre not out for long. Theyre coming back. Made a simple tripvere chto the grocery storeis anything but simple. So finally, i had an important conversation with my dermatologist about humira. He explained that humira works inside my body to target and help block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to my symptoms. In clinical trials, most adults saw 75 skin clearance. And the majority were clear or almost clear in just 4 months. Humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. Serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. Before treatment, get tested for tb. Tell your doctor if youve been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if youve had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flulike symptoms or sores. Dont start humira if you have an infection. Ask your dermatologist about humira. Because with humira clearer skin is possible. I believe this moment can be a turning point for the world. Weve shown that the world has both the will and the ability to take on this challenge. That was president obama last night on the Climate Change deal struck in paris yesterday. The agreement aims to keep the increase in Global Temperatures well below 3. 6 degrees fahrenheit by the end of this century. It also aims to raise about 100 billion to help developing countries adapt their economies in order to reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions. It was not drafted as a treaty to avoid president obama having to take it to congress for approval and late last night paris time i was joined by secretary of state john kerry and i started by asking about the lack of an enforcement mechanism in the agreement. Theres a lot of pledges, theres a lot of promises. But there seems to be no mechanism for getting countries to comply other than wagging your finger at them and shaming them. Am i wrong . Well, thats the most powerful weapon in many ways but its not the only weapon. In fact, we think more other powerful weapons. President obama understood and believe me, hes been really committed to getting this done and its his leadership in america on our own Climate Action plan that give us credibility here and the president has been able to do that without that enforcement mechanism but by setting policy. Here we set policy. 186 countries came together. Each submitted their own plan for reductions according to their capacities. We have a mandatory legally binding reporting mechanism, chuck, and that reporting mechanism requires people to retool their plans every five years in order to do more than they might be doing and meet the goal. People understand this issue. This is not a question of doing it because it seems nice or politically its good. Its because its having a profoundly negative impact on nations. They need to respond and thats perhaps the most compelling reason of all. But you say legally binding. Okay, so somebody doesnt comply, again, is it whats this law that youre going to hit them with other than International Shame . Theres a mechanism being set up within this structure that will promote compliance and you will have nations within that mechanism working with countries in order to help bring them on board. You dont always need a sledgehamm sledgehammer. If you can provide people with technology or you provide them with Technical Assistance or youve discovered a new means of reducing emissions more at less cost, more efficiency there will be a huge sharing of these kinds of experiences through the reporting mechanism of the agreement. And thats going to have a profound impact on a lot of countries, chuck. It is enough to necessarily get us there. Probably not but what it is is enough to send a very powerful message to the global marketplace. And we expect somewhere in the vicinity of 50 trillion to be spend next 30, 40 years on energy. That is going to be one of the greatest reasons that nations spontaneously move in this direction because there are jobs to be created, money to be made and theres a population to respond to in terms of the demand of their citizens. I know you can go around congress in agreeing to this because youre not asking for ratification but congress does have the power of the purse. And they can prevent the federal government, despite executive action, from using money to participate in this. If they do that, do you ask the president to veto that bill . Is that a show down . How do you get congress to just give you the money you need to participate in this deal . Well, let me tell you something, president obama has been on the phone to president xi this week, Prime Minister modi, president hollande. Hes called the president of brazil. Hes invested in this very deeply. This is a major priority because president obama believes this is a major challenge to our country. So if people want to tempt the president s veto, i believe they do so inviting him to take the steps they will do to protect what he believes is a critical Urgent National security issue for our country. And the president , as you know, has been able to secure money for critical programs on the basis of the fact that there is that check and palace between the congress and the executive. So i think the president s going to stand up for his program no matter what. Youve spent a lot of time with a lot of diplomats around the world. Whats been their reaction to Donald Trumps proposal to temporarily ban muslim immigration into the United States . Well, those people who know the United States well are quite shocked because they see it as totally contrary to american values, as discriminatory and, frankly as potentially dangerous and it seems like a person running for United States is doing well in the polls is prepared to take actions that would, in fact, ratify the notion that people are at war against islam, not against daesh. So i think you have to be very careful by categorizing people by being muslim. Thats discrimination and its contrary, i think, to the fundamental values of our country. We have plenty of ways to vet people. We already do it. We have a huge process of examining people for visas. We know whos coming into our country for the most part. Youre talking about review of the state department. The wife in the San Bernardino terrorist attack, it turned out, she had been communicating radical believes on social media before she applied for her fiance visa. Thats something done during the veti in vetting process. Is that something that now needs to be done during the vetting process . A look at social media and things like that . The review has been ordered and we need to look at whether there are means and how we can do it. Clearly the social media has placed a whole new burden and a whole new set of questions but not impossible ones to resolve and i think we need to look at this very, very carefully which is what were doing before we jump to a wholesale prohibition without understanding what the implications may be. That was secretary of state john kerry in paris. It was after midnight in paris time when we talked. Coming up, its been 40 years since we saw a contested convention. That was in 1976 between president gerald ford and Ronald Reagan. Up next, the very real possibility you saw in our data display there on the fact of the matter that this party could split into three, leading us to trublend has the Perfect Blend for each of us covergirl p nk blend of rockstar and mama bear. Her trublend. Light 4 it blends in doesnt build up for a flawless nude look find your trublend at easy breezy beautiful covergirl this is the one place were not afraid to fail. Some of these experiments may not work. But a few might shape the future. Like turning algae into biofuel. New technology for capturing co2 emissions. And cars twice as efficient as the average car today. Ideas exxonmobil scientists are working on to make energy go further. No matter how many tries it takes. Energy lives here. Are you curious . Do you wonder why things work . Do you look at things and say i can make that better . These questions, these curiosities then lead to discoveries. And those discoveries are going to lead to the Energy Solutions for the next 50 years. We have big, big challenges. One challenge is to capture the co2 before its released into the atmosphere. We captured more than 6 million tons in 2014 alone. Thats the equivalent of eliminating the annual emissions of more than one million cars. In the longer term, we are working on how to convert algae into biofuels. The ultimate objective is to be able to put it into an existing car, to not have to redo the engine. That could be one of the very important parts of the Energy Equation in the future. We want to drive our scientists, we want to drive our engineers, to never be satisfied with where we are today. Because there are always better ways to do things. Im vijay swarup, and i am a scientist at exxonmobil. Welcome back. Not since 1976 have we even seen the potential for a contested Political Convention but we might see one this year in cleveland. Here are four possible scenario s were looking at in the republican race right now. One is trump fades and and either ted cruz or marco rubio takes over. No fight in that case. Second scenario has trump fading and cruz becomes the insurgent candidate. The two of them go on, one wins and there will be no convention fight. Scenario three is trump taking off, party going into panic mode, and unless trump walks in with a majority of delegates count on a contested convention. The fourth scenario is one i outlined earlier, trump, cruz, rubio and split everything onethird, onethird, onethird, no clear winner arrives in cleveland and let the games begin. Jerry, i know it seems absurd and everything but there seems to be something different. To me its about trump. If trump is viable for the next three or four month s were going to have a contested convention. You do pause here because we have this conversation or some version of it every four years. But this is different because, as you said this is a third lane that comes out very clearly. Its not two, its not bipartisan, bipolar, theres a new calendar, there are more states that have proportional delegate allotments so that its harder to pile up in winner take all states all the delegates you need to get to that magic number of 1, 200 plus to win the nomination. So its there. Ill throw out one last interesting scenario here. John kasich, governor of ohio. Ohio is a winner take all state with lots of delegates. Lets say john kasich stays in, wins his home states, pockets the delegates, wins your conventi convention. Maybe theres your broker because he has a big block of control and nobody else has a majority. Ted, you brought this up earlier with the polling. This is such a nationalized electorate now. It used to be there were specific ways you campaigned in different states and some are trying to do it the old way. Rick santorum is going to all 99 counties. Hey, it worked last time. Chris christie is doing town halls in New Hampshire but for the most part this is a nationalized race and the more nationalized, the more likely you want people to see the reality show continue. And i think you have to admit you are essentially drooling on your shirt at the prospect. You famously walked away from Convention Coverage because there was no news. Youll come back thats exactly right. Thats exactly right. Every single one of us is going to be saying thank god, finally, an interesting convention. But youre right about those people out there. All the people who have been energized by the Trump Campaign are going to be very, very angry folk if they think trump is not well treated. Ive been disappoint sod many times because this is every political reporters fantasy. Lets put that out there. Every four years it doesnt happen, the idea of a floor flight in cleveland sounds fantastic. But i do think you would be looking at a case of really seeing a lot of alienated republican voters, people in the primary who may end up feeling theyve been cast aside if the tactics are too strong handed. Look we see cruz rising in iowa in the register poll and the last time i went to a trump event he was the only person the Trump Supporters said they would even consider. A lot of them said if its not trump its nobody. And they were very dedicated to trump. He is the second choice. Hes drafting off of trump. But now that means theyll go at each other and that will change the dynamic weve dn talking about cruz, bush not cruz, rubio and trump. Bush we dont talk about him any more. Heve spent the most money than anybody and in iowa hes upside down. Is it over, jerry . Its hard to see the path out of that ditch hes in. I dont know when its over. A lot of money to spend on advertising still counts for something. The other name we havent mentioned, i think theres a possibility of a Chris Christie moment in New Hampshire because hes the guy who seized on the terrorist threat as effectively as anybody and its very focussed in New Hampshire so maybe theres one other wild card. And what you havent mentioned, chuck, so far that cruz is almost as unpopular with the republican establishment as trump is. Theyre not going to be happen wi with cruz as an alternative. I want to switch gears here a little bit. There was a Supreme Court argument over an affirmative action case with the university of texas. The audio has been released is and let me play what Justice Antonin Scalia said thats caused a bit of controversy. Take a listen. There are those who contend it does not benefit africanamericans to get them into the university of texas where they do not do well as opposed to having them go to a less advanced school, a slower track school where they do well. Ted, i couldnt help of thinking of nightline. I was thinking of al campanus, too. Both of them had the same problem. Its generational. He really doesnt think he is saying anything untoward. This is the kind of thing someone of antonin scalias generation has been saying all his life. Al campanus did the same thing. But being a Supreme Court justice means never having to say your sorry. Thats it. Hes said it. Whats going to happen to him . Nothing. It was so declarative. Theres a lot of anger. There is. But theres also my facebook feed exploded when this came out but it was so particularly among my black friends and younger black friends, the collegeage ones. This just seemed to reinforce what they already thought he thought so i dont know that that changes anything. Its just saying something they all thought. He was just articulating. Scalia being scalia . Absolutely. As you say, theres no need to explain your comments if youre a security justice. Interesting the way he framed it. There are those who think that. And we do have conservatives saying hes getting a raw deal because he was playing devils advocate and throwing out an argument that exists but isnt his argument. And the other part is Pete Williams will say this is why scalia is against any video in the courts, in i audio. He believe what is will happen is somebody will take a snippet and turn its called accountability and thats what they dont want. There you go. Good for you. Ill let that be the last word there. Well be back in 45 seconds with our end game segment including something you wont want to miss the president ial candidates talking about their favorite fictional president. Because one of them decided to fight back. Meanwhile, on saturday night live, the return of a familiar face to save the Republican Party from donald trump. Watch. Poor jeb, you have to admit its a good plot twist that i turned out to be the smart one. [ laughter ] of course, i wish you would have asked me about the exclamation point on the end of his name. Look, i dont like the taste of broccoli. But it doesnt get any tastier if you call it broccoli you can collect rainwater to shower with, but there are easier ways to go green. Like taking shorter showers, which conserves water and lowers your bill. Youll sing long ballads in the rain and short ditties in the shower. The more you know end game time and the panel is here. Ted we had you on for a bunch of other reasons, not the topic of your book but we should because its a topic i feel like politicians will tell you is important, cyber terrorism, but they dont know how to talk about it on the campaign trail. The problem, is everybody is wondering about explosive vests and people with ak47s. We live in the day in age when someone sitting in somalia or chile or perth, australia can be sitting there with a laptop and theoretically can take down one of our power grids or part of our infrastructure and do infinitely more damage. Nobody talks about that. Its not a question of who comes into the United States. Were way passed that. Republican anonymous . What do you make of anonymous going after isis . Its beautiful. I like it. I will tell you who does talk about this with the wall street journal. We talk to business leaders. Business leaders are very worried. Almost obsessed about this topic. J. P. Morgan, for example, has spent about a billion dollars on cyber security. Hasnt done them a whole lot of good. All of us work at Media Companies that are also panicked about this. Absolutely. Not just the Media Companies the. Government the pentagon has had hack attempts and theyve been very, very concerned. Weve also used it aggressively ourselves. Keith alexander the former director of the nsa likes to say every company in the United States falls into one of two categories, those that have been hacked and those that dont yet know it. Thats scary. Im going to lighten the mood here a little bit. We had a little bit of interesting weve done these sit downs with various candidates. Weve asked them to do fun little things, whats your favorite concert, this or that. So we asked them whos the favorite fictional president and were going go star wars crazy. We decided to show the clips because Harrison Ford was asked to react to what he thought of donald trump talking about him as one of his favorite president s via air force one. Watch his reaction. Donald, it was a movie. Its not like this in real life. But how would you know . [ laughter ] gotta love it. Theres the laugh line. Theres the punch line. Well see a lot of Harrison Ford when everybody goes star wars crazy. Kwu look at what weve been asking and Harrison Ford is quite popular. Take a look. Oh, my god. I dont know. I guess Harrison Ford when he was on air force one. The guy who on the american president. That was a good film. That was a liberal but he was certainly Michael Douglas did a fabulous job. The movie dave was hysterical and i enjoyed that as well. My most favorite guy is Harrison Ford. People have said that i look like him. Do you think i do . [ laughter ] oh, jerry. How could nobody say Morgan Freeman . Nobody said Morgan Freeman. The voice of god. Dont we think republican candidates sit there and they want the tough guy. They all want to fly a plane. They want to be on air force one. Ill tell you a quick funny story. My old friend and abc colleague barry was talking to gore vidal who said he got a call from a hollywood actors agent who wanted to play the president in one of vidals movies and vidal said no, its just not credible. That actor of course, was Ronald Reagan . Ronald reagan. [ laughter ] can i say in the spirit of this factchecking project, no, john kasich, you do not look like Harrison Ford. Ouch. That isnt fair. I dont know. I can see it. Come on now. I didnt say he was lug ugly. I just said he didnt look like Harrison Ford. I want to go to rahm emanuel. The mayor of chicago has had a tough time. I have this theory, helene, that there would be more calls for his resignation if, number one, he didnt have friends in high places, president obama, Hillary Clinton, and the governor of illinois even though hes a republican whos a personal friend. All three of those people if any called for his resignation hed be out. Thats absolutely true. But thats because the people most angry about this are the people who support president obama and who naturally gravitate toward the allies of emanuel but this is a tough one for him. I dont im going to be very curious to see how he survives it. Can i tell you, we spent a lot of time talking about the divisions in the Republican Party but the Democratic Party is also deeply divided and rahm was in trouble, he got into the runoff for chicago mayor before this came out. Its because of closing the schools and pensions and things that put him in the establishment wing, the corporatist wing of the Democratic Party. Theres a rising liberal tide in this country. Its powering bernie sanders. Its increasingly aggressive so they were mad at rahm and this is the spark. She brings a good point. Rahm is a creature of the 90s Democratic Party. Remember, that means he worked in the Clinton White house in the 90s. A bill Clinton White house. And he knows how the go into damage control mode. Does he . Well, i think so. Well find out. But you can either resign and he doesnt strike me as a resigning kind of guy be recalled and i dont think that happens here and i think he struggles through. But it feels as even if he wants to leave, can he . If he wants to leave . No, lead. I dont know if he can. If anybody will listen to him. And replace him with what . Thats always the issue. No, i think he stays and fights. Well, theres no doubt hell fight but can he get anything done . I dont know. I think thats going to be a tough call which may end up being the reason why he leaves. The tough things have to be done in chicago. He knows it. Nobody will jump up and do those tough things because its a recipe for trouble. You cant help chicago is so much different. Every other city as much as were having these problems, every other citys Police Department doesnt seem to have the same problems as chicago these days. Thats all for today. Well be back next week because if its sunday its meet the press. 16 seconds. Yes. Yes. This week we delve into the economics of the heart Court Contest and find out why one of the worlds greatest card players hopes you missed. And holiday security scams even smart people fall for. And Dave Elkington predicts the fate of the