slosh China relations. Yes so to see it is headed to the top president trumps desk in the next day he should receive it and then he has the choice whether to sign it or to veto it he is expected we're hearing to sign it if he did veto it there was such overwhelming support in Congress in both chambers and bipartisan support that they would likely have the votes to override a veto and he hasn't he hasn't faced that situation before in Congress so he's likely to just sign it what the bill does is it requires the State Department to certain to undergo have certified annual certifications to determine whether Hong Kong is sufficiently autonomy to justify the special trading relationship that the u.s. Has with Hong Kong it treats it differently than it does the rest of China so and then there also is in the bill provisions for say actions against Chinese officials who are not upholding human rights in Hong Kong So this is a bill of course that has drawn a very harsh criticism from Beijing there have been several states. Made including one this week that if the u.s. Went ahead and pass this legislation that there would be an identified but there would be counter measures that would be retaliatory measures so the question is now of course how does this affect the trade talks that are going on at the very same time. So they hold those horses bring in Tom MacKenzie our resident a store of value on that over the foreign ministry. Well I actually don't believe a us agreement is that important so from my point of view whatever will be agreed in phase one. Will be fairly irrelevant trying to delay the inevitable and trying to perhaps blockade the markets and the markets are really looking forward and I said both of us saw it and Sean aside would like to find a common ground so fundamentally I don't saying this phase while the green but actually gold is a nice saying probe of market perspective it's a consensus that the agreement will be reached so they need to sign some saying otherwise what will tilt see in markets could be quite extreme because those that it's complete consensus that they will achieve a least some sort. Of victory let me ask you something that I know that you care about and that is of course the sort of interplay between economics and society of course the situation in Hong Kong is not the only spot of instability that we have seen around the world we've seen a number of protests take off including some in the Middle East has not as well knows you've written before about the backlash to the Liberal Order social instability coincide with high risk acid valuations and even bull markets in things like us stocks and the Hang saying up until one or 2 days ago. Well the difference between the 2 is. Really liquidity that central banks of pumping the way of basically look at it it's like this ship in the hall which has lots of holes in the hall it's taking in a lot of water but there are pumps inside the ships which is a central bank just pumping the water out and everybody's looking at this boat and saying oh my god it's got to think it's got to go down it's got to go down below the waist but it doesn't and the reason it doesn't is a very proactive central bank policy and number 2 an expectation in the marketplace that China ultimately will stimulate it's like everybody is against them and t. But everybody is begging China to do its own name and see it's a little bit hypocritical you don't like it but on the other hand you would like China to do it and so it's really did make sure of liquidity and expectation of China reflation that is keeping up asset values but as you correctly said one of the key areas is uncertainty and that's what could be reflected in the u.s. Dollar and u.s. Dollar could easily derail this rally. And it takes a lot to knock that dollar off its part to find it very very hard to do so. Do you think the dollar remains strong into 2020. Well my view for 2020 it's probably going to be a relatively arranged by a couple of reasons reasonable on us monetary base is expanding quite rapidly by us the central bank is now meeting 506070 1000000000 dollars every months but to which you have is that the Federal Reserve is more aggressive than I They used to be and b o j but on the other side of the coil and spreads I still like to in favor of u.s. Dollar I do you still have a lot of volatility in the marketplace you still have a lot of uncertainty geopolitical social trade on certainty so you sort of balance between the 2 you can understand why speculative positions right now in. Us neutral if you will if you look at noncommercial us dollar contracts that basically quite neutral and I think that's about right I don't sing the dollar will last collide I don't sing it will collapse mob view is it will remain relatively neutral and that's no the bat backdrop. For risk assets. But if the will to want to go is all if we actually have a lot more social geopolitical a trade unrest us don't like it isn't a Spike Lee's. Ok not so hot cold Goldilocks of the dollar Victor latest problem by studios about. Thanks man it's crazy it was a very quiet day of trading yesterday in the Gulf but we did get one interesting coincidence 111111 markets in Saudi Dubai and Abu Dhabi those main indices all up 11 basis points I don't know what that means in Turkey we had our biggest mover however that that index the D.I.'s t 100 falling 7 tenths of one percent I want to take you to Kuwait where the story is really what's not happening lately and that is that the main index there not moving a tiny despite some political turmoil we saw the government. In fact resign and the Emperor having to appoint a new leadership over the past week after amid corruption charges graft charges potentially allegations Excuse me but generally we haven't seen this market move a ton in the last few months it's moved down since hitting a high in July and while the index is up about 20 percent year to date we just really haven't seen a ton of movement and that's despite but centrally being included in the m.s.c.i. E.-m. Index next year no I also want to focus in on Israel as we've talked about Benny Gantz failing to form a government yesterday by the deadline now this goes to Parliament can they do it this is the 1st time they've had this opportunity in 70 more than 70 years the shekel retracing some of its gains this week as this political situation continued and remember the Israeli Central Bank meeting on Monday to decide whether to cut rates so this is this is the currency were watching right now magistracy. 4 How are you interpreting that analogy expansion. It is a Q a fool any expansion of central bank balance sheets creates liquidity and liquidity find its way into various investments it's very seldom action or reaches the people on the ground that's your recipe for inequalities but it does find its way into various investment instruments and remember a Federal Reserve Note that long ago wanted to bring down the balance sheet from by full 4.7 trillion to 2 and a half trillion they could only do destry point 8 and now that back up to over fool I suspect by the end of the year they're going to be higher than what they were at the peak of the balance sheet expansion so it is q.e. It feels like he Except it does very little for underlying economy trickle down economics doesn't work as as well. Well the last time we engaged in and a robust expansion of q.e. Certainly to date it set a mine for risk assets so if it is it is meant as a q.e. Sounds like you even quacks like a duck walks like a duck How do you reacted. To it are you to take more risk into 2020 if it is as you say it is key for. All of you you. Know what an awfully quick easy to go into the marketplace because remember central banks a losing confidence they understand they incredibly toxic they understand that most of the poll that says don't have the same Africa's see and they also understand that one mistake one major mistake and they will be gone they'll go back to ministries of Finance and Treasury Department the idea of independent technocratic central banks will just go away so they're not doing they're not doing it off in my view to stimulate a lot more cyclicality in value and the same by the way applies to China and it applies to fish. Policies essentially whether you're fiscal and monetary policy person you have to ask yourself a question Where am I taking h. No longer militancy measure of September the idea of the permanent What are the implications of what I'm doing and I think that's part of the reason why China's reflation repulse is not calming us quickly or as a rip off slowly as people would We're expecting only several months ago so if you don't have enough liquidity you don't have enough for a flake there is no innocuous cyclicality to wrong there is no to Knopf of value to wrong and so I'm still very much preferring quality sustainability growth Sabbat excess rather than value cyclicality. Ok Muslim. To get fully paid in the month. We are seeing a 2nd session of losses here in Asia but importantly we're off the lows of the day at one point the m.s.c.i. Asia Pacific index was off by about 1.3 percent on those concerns that the Us bill supporting Hong Kong protesters could drop charges I even further but then we heard from Lew head China's top trade negotiator who is cautiously optimistic about a deal so a little bit of a pullback in terms of some of those early losses still deicing Hong Kong's market under heavy pressure so that resilience we saw earlier in the wake very much dissipating the decay down 7 tenths of one percent and Australia's market to having a similar loss let's have a look at current seas because we have been seeing a little bit of support coming back through in the off shore you want which was trading at a 3 way call Lloyd before you comments pretty steady there at the moment no surprise money going into the Japanese yet and the Korean War and really leading. Declines in Asian ethics once again South Korea's imports and exports slumping in the 1st 20 days of November I don't have a quick look at some stocks we're watching because Hong Kong the subway system has said that its passengers fell by a record 26 percent and made the on risk you can see it more than one and a half percent in the afternoon session so any Also in focus we're hearing it seemed talks to acquire a stake in the Indian television network of Bonnie and then what she once again which failed yesterday to a 6 month low. Pay huge find out to all strike the financial crimes agency accused it of breaking money laundering laws more than $23000000.00 times the Australian prime minister also having a say on c.e.o. And his future Tracy. Thanks so much Julie and Julia Tully there with the latest in markets let's turn over to the Middle East now where Saudi Aramco scaled back i.p.o. Has been providing some relief for Saudi bank stocks but it's unlikely to be a game changer for more let's bring in our markets in equities reporter Philippe. Believe they said we have seen this bank shares rally as around close i.p.o. Comes ever closer walk us through the dynamics there and walk us through what exactly is expected to happen once the i.p.o. Actually prices. Are Tracy and that's correct there's been a very good performance by most of the Saudi banks trading in Riyadh in the past month for example we take a look at an index that tracks most of those numbers they've been this index is up close to 10 percent in the that's much more than the index and also more than emerging market lenders in general if you have a global comparison what we hear there is that of course there are media analysts and investors that are saying that they could actually get a. In revenue coming from those products that they are offering for investors that are aiming to buy. Shares such as margin and collateralized. But of course they will also make money with brokerage fees so all of this will be impacting their 4th quarter numbers but at the same time if we broaden our view of the Saudi market right now this Stocks have been trading at very expensive levels we're talking about the banking stocks this chart that we see in our screen right now shows the estimated price to book value for the index and it's been trading very expensive this year mostly on top of the index inclusions story those stocks were actually correcting back to the average of the past 2 years but now they're back to increasing trend because of this last. Boost that we've seen in the past few weeks the person going forward is not it's not good because there are concerns regarding n.p.l. It's though they could be increasing in the near term and Wolf of course like the macro perspective for this Saudi economy is not very exciting to actually sustain such high levels and prices. Believe it to be have an indication yet on the way to be a runaway team in the to dollar because obviously we thought was going to 3 percent an issue is not one and so one of the new numbers tell us. What we have right now is a lot of people just estimating what. The what the representation of them could could be within the to dial in considering the numbers that we know from their latest prospectus from what we had early earlier this week we had for example yesterday I was he kept 0 came out with a report saying that the company could have could have between 9 point one and 9.7 percent all of that to dial me in the acts that would still make the. Companies smaller. Bank which is the biggest bank are represented within the main index and its Of course the floating of the bank it's much higher than what we are going to see for around quote so that makes the. Difference for for them and if we look at the estimates for inflows that are he kept to expect for I don't call it coming from those specified investors tracking m.s.g.r. Infants footsie benchmarks for example we're talking about close to $3800000000.00 mil is. A big thank you very much like reasonable rate defeated by jack up the very latest let's carry the conversation on with how to better get if I am wrong or c.e.o. And c I would debate in the value of around Can I start 1st of all with a very simple question How disappointing is it that we're not seeing international investors are more important why do you think the international dancers are not tempted with what's on offer. Morning must look it's obviously a small disappointment that we're not seeing international investors participating in a big way in you and this is mostly driven by valuation as you probably know I think . Of the average range for international investors where they think there is a fair value for and who was more between 1.3 to 1.5 trillion that's far as I'm concerned did it I don't think it mattered that much what price. Gets you what I think would have been much better if we came much closer to 1.5 trillion have international investors participate because of the end of the day let's not forget Saudis only selling 1.5 percent so you know you're still owner of 98.5 percent in. Much more important far as I'm concerned we get more international investors so so today is becoming more of a regional and select. Sovereign Wealth Fund potentially participating into this new but ultimately it remains an anchoring exist size which is still going to be successful in my opinion. No And given their scaled back. How do you expect it to actually perform in the secondary market once it starts trading are we going to get that big of a 1st date on. The float is still $25000000000.00 So I don't do not expect a lot of ball however I do expect it to perform well in the secondary market the reason for that. Is the building exists I think is going to be run properly from what I'm. Hearing So you would see long term investors which are likely to sell in the short term you have also potentially pensions in Saudi and large institutions these will probably stick around for the medium term and also the make unreasoned that was done for the retail investors whereby you get one free share for every 10 shares you buy provided that you keep it. Beyond a certain period will help in terms of the appetite in terms of supply in the 2nd secondary market would probably be reluctantly. And then finally I think the inclusion into footsie an embassy i would happen would be fast tracked and would bring us the flows over roughly $3.00 to $3500000000.00 This would definitely help in terms of stabilizing the. Price after the i.p.o. . The bottom line I think expected to be our 510 percent after the after the listing. And let's realize we need to have another bomb get other all of the dogs let's see with our market at home 88. And you come down on the side of your plate optimistic because 2021 because of the transformation I put it either a great deal optics has already been spent to be accelerated or is there or do I have to wait and they will come. That's right look today the issue with the u.a.e. Is an all back single infrastructure of the supply side I think the demand side has been. Relatively weak and this is where we need a balancing act and I think just to talk a little bit about 20 export 2020 and what it means for the economy I think long term it doesn't mean that much however in the short term you will bring. A play the role of a breather for the retail sector for the hospitality sector and potentially also the real estate sector the reason imbalance in the market we all know it and that will help at least in the short. To balance a little bit the market view on the u.a.e. Though is that the prices on the equity side reflect.