Taper timeline. When the fed might be getting ready to execute a new plan for the economy. In todays cover story. A look ahead at 2014, through the eyes of traders. Plus. Simple tips to investing in etfs. And. Why super bowl tickets are the hottest commodity. On wall street. Lets get down to business youre watching First Business financial news, analysis, and todays investment ideas. Good morning its wednesday, december 18th. Im angela miles. In todays first look stocks stall ahead of the Rate Decision and potential taper talk from the fed today. The dow, nasdaq and s p remained close to unchanged for the day. Gold shed 13 dollars and oil 38 cents. Amc raises the curtain on its ipo. The stock begins trading today, alternatives after pricing in 17, 18,19, 20,21 the ticker is amc. Triple aaa predicts 94. 5 Million People will travel during the holidays. Making it the 5th Straight Year of an increase of americans hitting the road and taking to the skies. And today is Free Shipping day more than 800 retailers will shipping at no charge with gauranteed delivery by christmas eve. Its going to be a really interesting wednesday. Scott shellady of trean joins us now. It is all about the fed today. What is your anticipation . Im gonna do something a bit different here. I think some folks think there is going to be some sort of taper. Heres what im gonna go for. I dont think that they should taper but i think that theyre going to give us taper guidance. Were going to taper july 1st if the numbers keep giong the way theyre going. If they dont we reserve the right to push the taper off or bring it forward. You may have something there and i want to know your thoughts about what happens after the announcement. After that press conference with ben bernanke. Sometimes that tends to be the market mover. I think thats the billion dollar question. I would say that the Market Sentiment right now is that if we get no taper we might see a little pop in stocks and maybe a decent selloff. So i think ultimately, heres the scorewe have an economy thats got some hurdles. Weve had some decent numbers as of late. We have to take that sugar water away at some point in time. Maybe the market wants to have it happen sooner rather than later and that will give us the confidence that we need. Whats the trade of the day . Do you short the market, go long, or stay on the sidelines . Im going to stay on the sidelines until after i see some verbiage or some rhetoric come out of the fed. After that i think youre going to see a pop if we dont taper but i think thats ultimately to be sold. And i think that if we do taper, a lot of folks out there are going to start to believe that strength in the market, which im not quite sure, but i think thats how the market will be read and i think that will be a buy. Thank you scott. Thank you. In our cover story, the fed tapering of its bondbuying program could be a boost to commodities traders. They see futures in 2014 looking better, weatherpermitting, and less volatile than stocks at this time. Thanks largely to hydralic fracturing or fracking, Us Oil Production is on track to nearly reach an alltime high. According to the Energy Information administrations 20 14 outlook, as much as 9. 5 Million Barrels a day just two years from now. The previous peak was 9. 6 million in 1970. I think in the new year, theres going to be a lot of pressure on the us to lift the 1970 ban on exporting oil. So i think next year, the u. S. Will take the historic step and start exporting oil. Also, natural Gas Production is up and flynn predicts greater demand for it in 2014. Youre going to see natural gas cars, factories and were going to export nat gas in ways no one thought possible in the next few years. Some think energy could supply the boost, the economys needed. Ill be watching the dollar against the euro currencies. Well gain against them but lose ground to the japanese yen. On soft commodities, soybeans are trading three times than corn and may lead farmers to plant more soybeans this year. And with last years 14billion bushel record corn crop, cattle ranchers are hoping to recover from 2012s disasterous drought. Corn prices are now at levels that farmers can afford it for feed and so theyre going to continue to expand herds. As far as corn, wheat and soybeans, im looking at spreads rather than an outright position. Soybeans are historically high and so is wheat to corn and it could be very profitable in the coming year. Jack scoville says theres an ample supply of coffee but there may be rising prices for cocoa and rice. Its the ultimate tech talk in washington. President obama in a round table visit with the leaders of apple, twitter, yahoo, google and netflix. Im just wondering if you have an advanced copy of the house of cards . laughter you could do a cameo i wish that things were that ruthlessly effiecient. The president no doubt was refering to the technical glitches that plagued the roll out of healthcare. Gov. A former microsoft exec has been named to managed the troubled site. At the white house yesterday, a number of the ceos are urging president obama to move aggressively forward with reforming the government surviellence program. Said to have distrupted more than 50 terrorist plots. A judge ruled this week the government snooping of tech data may be unconstitional. A vote is expected today on a bipartisan budget agreement. Yesterday the senate cleared a path for a final vote on the budget deal. It sets top line spending for 2014 15, and reduces sequester spending cuts by 63 billion over two years. The senate voted to end debate. However, some conservative members opposed the deal. Its expected to pass the senate and receive a signature from the president. After that, congress would begin work on an omnibus spending bill for 2014. The sec is collecting a Staggering Amount of money this year as corporations pay a record price for bad behavior. The securities and Exchange Commission reports it levied a 3. 4 billion in penalties. Up 10 from last year. The bulk of the fines is coming from hedge fund sac capital, bp and jp morgan chase. Starting this week, less chit chat at jpmorgan. Reuters reports the bank has banned employees from using chat rooms to communicate with each other at work. Regulators have monitored online chats as part of the ongoing libor investigation. Deutsche bank and ubs both banned chatting services after probes into Interest Rate rigging cost both banks hefty settlements. A jpmorgan employee tells cnbc that chatroom bans are unrelated to the libor investigation. A break out plan to end paying doctors to promote drugs is coming from glaxosmithkline. The british drug maker also says sales rep salaries will not longer be tied to how many prescriptions doctors write. Meantime, glaxo faces scrutiny by chinese authorities who accused the company of bribing doctors, hospitals and government officials in an effort to sell more drugs at a higher price. Glaxo officials are cooperating with authorities. A new Study Suggests u. S adults are wasting money on vitamins. An editorial out this week finds more than half of adults take a multivitamin to help prevent illness. However, the study led by a group of doctors finds. Taking supplements on a regular basis did not help decrease risks of stroke or heart attack. Herbalife shares are spiking. Yesterday the stock rallied more than 2 . The stock is gaining on word an audit by pricewatershousecoopers found no material changes after checking Accounting Records for 2010, 2011 and 2012. Nonetheless Hedge Fund Manager bill ackman maintains the nutrional supplement company is an illegal pyramid scheme. Google and hewlettpackard are recalling 145thousand chromebook 11 laptop chargers because the units can overheat. The Us Consumer Product Safety Commission says people should immediately stop using the chromebook 11 because of fire and burn hazards. The affected laptops were sold in october and november for about 3 hundred dollars. Consumers should contact google for replacements. Facebook is becoming more visual. The social network is preparing to launch video ads this week. Youll see them pop up, and automatically play on both the web and on the Facebook Smartphone app. Its not clear how Many Companies will use the ads right off the bat. But the wall street journal says one of the first will be lionsgate to promote its new film divergent. One analyst had this response. Ha, ha, good luck. Most people will silence most of them unless and this is a big unless, they are incredibly good, funny ads. The ad venture could open up a fresh source of revenue for the company. Fb stock is trending higher, closing last at 54 dollars. Talks between Car Companies and Union Workers are way down the road. But the uaw is already gearing up. Reuters reports a top uaw official has plans to eliminate the two tier wage system. The system pays new auto workers at a lower rate than long time employees. The pay division was installed because of the nations financial breakdown in 2007. The uaws next negotiations with gm, ford and chrysler happen in 2015. Tesla is taking a couple of new routes. The electric car company set up a chinese website making it possbile for chinese consumers to buy the tesla model s. Deliveries are expected early next year. The automaker also has plans to unveil an electric car in the u. S. That will sell in the 40 thousand dollar range. Making the car more affordable for main stream america. The model s sedan currently starts at 71grand. The confidence of us Home Builders continues to climb higher in a solid sign that rising Interest Rates arent hurting the economy. The National Association of Home Builders latest index rose four points in december to 58. Levels above 50 indicate industry expansion. Economists had predicted a 55 for the index. Jed kolko of trulia says the boost in confidence was helped by more Building Permits in december. That means there are more units that are being permitted, which should translate into more starts over the next couple of months. Kolko adds that construction of multi family buildings are up, which will lead to a spike in rentals next year. The number of americans with underwater mortgages has dropped 40 . In the Third Quarter 6. 4 million homeowners still owed more on their mortgages than their homes market value. Down significantly from 10. 6 million a year ago. According to new data from core logic. The decline is in large part due to rising home prices. The former home of Chicago Bulls legend Michael Jordan is still on the market. It was up for auction, but a spokeswoman for jordan says the highest bid did not meet the reserve price of 21 million dollars. The chicago area home has seven bedrooms, 15 bathrooms, a library, and of course, a basket ball court. Starting december 21st toys r us plans to open for 87 hours straight leading up to christmas. Toys r us joins a growing list of retailers extending hours for this years shortened shopping season macys, nordstrom, target and walmart, among others, are all trying to lure lastminute shoppers with extra time. This is the peak week for Package Delivery service ups the Company Expects to pick up somewhere in the neighborhood of 34million parcels. On its busiest day this week ups delivered 300 packages per second. Nearly 20thousand ups employees are working around the clock as they do every Christmas Season to make it happen. It will also be a very busy day at starbucks tomorrow as it anticipates selling a Record Number of its gift cards. Last december 19th, the coffee giant sold more than 2 million cards in the us and canada thats 15hundred cards per minute. Football fans on wall street are driving demand for superbowl tickets. Ticket brokers say they are fielding calls from wall streeters are already trying to score seats for clients. It will be a pricey year. Seats are ranging from 22 hundred dollars, all the way up to 12 thousand dollars. Still to come the fed head is center stage on wall street. How traders are preparing. Plus. How Corporate America is sharing the wealth with investors this christmas. And. Investment trends. A step by step guide to putting money into etfs. Thats right after the break im going to pass chemistry, and ill take it from there. Im going to do what makes me happy. Im going to work hard. Be independent. Live large. Make the most of every opportunity. I knew i wanted to go to college. But figuring out how to pay for it . I didnt have a clue. The u. S. Department of education has over 100 billion. And thats a lot of money. To help students pay for college. And the free application . You mean the fafsa. I did it online. It was easy. Im never giving up on my goals. I will make a difference. Im going to find out how to pay for college. Im going to college. Gov. 86 billion dollars is invested in Exchange Traded funds. Better known as etfs or even baskets of stocks or commodites or other assets. Joining us on set this morning. Andrew gogertythe etf managed portfolio strategist at morningstar. Good to have you here. Thank you for having me. You track 150 firms using etf strategies. So what are some of the big trends . Are a lot of them using the stock etfs . This year, and if you look at the general market returns, strategies based around u. S. Equity or trying to beat indesxes such as the s p 500 have really gained traction with advisors. The space overall grew at almost 37 through the Third Quarter of this year. But that has really been dominated by demand for u. S. Equities strategies. How big is that demand and what do you see as far as actual growth on return for these people . Returns this year have been mixed. But with any large sample set, were tracking 650 individual strategies. Not every strategy is going to outperform. But many advisors in the United States have home country bias. U. S. Equities consume a large part of the portfolio. And with u. S. Equity broadmarket indexes being up its not surprising to see that advisors are shifting back and away from things that have done well in the past such as fixed income commodities or even non us equities. Any signs of other trends out there . Especially because the stock market has been such a winner this year. I think one of the trends that youre going to see next year is increased adoption of these strategies. Many of these are not wrapped in mutual funds, theyre managed accounts so they are kind of out of the mainstream limelight. But advisors like these portfolios. Its a complete solution for a client. It can be globally diversified with just a handful of underlying holdings, that being individual etf. So we think the penetration is going to continue into next year. And for someone who is new to this and theyre thinking, what is an etf exactly . Just give us some names. Like for instance you could have a big cap etf that would maybe include google or apple. Sure, you could have a large cap etf. One of the most common is the spider s p 500. It tracks the s p 500 index. It holds all of the underlying securities. What youre seeing in these strategies is these Asset Managers are taking Something Like that and pairing it with other etfs such as vanguards emerging market, which covers emerging market stocks. And then Something Like agg which is the ishares total bond for the United States. So what you are getting is a complete portfolio with few number of holdings but youre actually getting exposure to hundreds if not thousands of securities. Youre still diversified. Absolutely. Good to have you on the show. Come back soon. Thank you very much. Investors are taking a hike. Both boeing and 3m have promised end of the year dividend hikes. Boeing said it is increasing its dividend by 50 percent or 73 cents a share. While 3m is boosting its dividend by 35 percent. Dividend payments in the s p 500 hit a new record in 2013. Thanks chuck coming up. What inflation is signaling about a potential fed move today. Plus. How technology is rapidly changing the american workforce. Thats next with bill moller. Several forces are affecting great change in the american workplace. Social, economic but most dramatically change is being accelerated by technology. Doctor tracey wilen speaks, writes and is a teacher on change in the workplace. And you have a new book coming out in 2014. 1 of these changes is really biological were living longer. Thats right. Some say were living to 100, which unlike our parents who worked 300 years, well be working 50 or 60. So you have multiple generations now in the workplace. Absolutely. Some firms have 4 generations. Were projecting 5 generations in the next 20 years. Whats becoming the norm in the workplace is vuca. If people dont know what that is its volatility, uncertainty, complexity ambiguity. Thats right a firm everyday and individuals deal with a lot of complexity and unknowns. We need to start to think about how to prepare for that. A lot of it is because of technology. The rise of the machines you say is going to be a big automation and robotics are here to stay and are really replacing many jobs and augmenting many jobs in unique ways. Part of that also is the multimedia world. We see that with the ubiquity of tablets and cellphones. And you tube and facebook. Images are everything. How to communicate, how to absorb, how to advertise using multimedia. What do you mean by diversity as being a component here . Diversity is not only age, gender, technology differences, education differences, and cultural differences. So we are a very deep Diverse Company and organizations today. Kind of the globalization of the workplace. Globalization. Your competitor is not just your neighbor next door, its your competitor across the nation and across the sea. And to keep your edge you need these as you call them, transdisciplinary skills. Its a t person. Breadth and depth with a technology overlay. Remember to keep up you skills and education. People want a players in companies today. That also speaks to people going to college. You have to be aware that maybe the schools, i dont know, are fully up to speed with training people on all of this. Yore bringing up a really good point. I think its important that we help students connect the dots between education and skills and employment. I think its important that students know what they need to be employable for life. Employed for life, the name of your new book coming out in 2014. Tracey wilen, thanks so much. Thank you bill. Thank you bill you may have worked harder yesterday than you will today. According to a survey by accountemps nearly half of Human Resource managers say employees most productive day of the week is tuesday after tuesday, monday comes in second, follwed by wednesday, thursday and friday are the days people tend to be less productive. Still ahead what the so called smart money is doing ahead of the fed. Chart talk is next. Beaf and many actors have played the part of u. S. Servicemen in the movies, but for veterans like james crosby their service and their sacrifice are real. And too often when they come home, their struggle continues. For over sixty years, paralyzed veterans of america has been fighting to help our injured veterans get the benefits they need, and have earned. Paralyzed veterans of america was there for me when i came home. Join me in supporting our paralyzed veterans. Visit pva dot org. Time now to head to the pit at the chicago board options exchange. Trader dan deming is standing by. Dan, good morning to you. What is the so called smart money doing . You trade options on the vix. What do you see down there . I can tell you as we roll into this number today we have seen some buying going on ahead of the numbers and the vix options. Meaning the expectations are that possibly the fed might actually do something. You saw the vix rise into this announcement later today. Basically, we saw some buying of january optionsat the money optionsof the vix as well so another indication that some people out there are certainly hedging for the possibility of a pullback. Youre on the Trading Floor so you see it all. What is your trader instinct telling you about the possibility of a taper move with the fed today . Based on what they have been saying over the last couple of years, the one thing im watching very closely is the Inflation Numbers. And right now the fed target of 2 is just not there in 2013. So i would think that based on the fact that we saw pretty benign tpi number come in yesterday that the fed probably will be on hold for december. They might indicate something down the road but if you look at Inflation Numbers by themselves they are not indicating a tightening or even reduced liquidity provisions. Right, because when inflation is low and we start to get deflation thats a bigger problem for the fed. Exactly. Good to have you on the show. Thanks for your insights today dan. Youre welcome angie. Thats a wrap for now. Join us tomorrow for a legendary movies and money thursday. One of the most intensly marketed films anchors the box Office Starting today. Will it be a star . From all of us at First Business have a great day announcer the following is paid presentation for focus t25, brought to you by beachbody. [ echoing its about time. The numberone people have for not working out is they dont have time. I have four kids. I work 60, 70 hours a week. I dont want to work out for no hour. Are you kidding me . I dont have the time. Announcer no time to work out . No problem. Introducing focus t25, the breakthrough inhome Fitness Program guaranteed over an hours results in only 25 minutes. T25 was created by a guy who knows a thing or two about