Good morning. Its been a packed week in politics and we begin with Hillary Clinton, as she sets to barnstorm the country with her new memoir, hard choices, we have a first look at her exclusive interview with diane sawyer. A poll Shows Hillary clinton has a commanding lead for the democratic nomination. 7 in 10 democrats want her to be their candidate. And her time as secretary of state has boosted her standing with the broader public, 67 of americans think shes a strong leader, 60 say shes honest and trustworthy and 59 believe she has new ideas for the countrys future. The top political question right now, hillarys personal future. When are you going to decide whether youre running for president . You know, when im going to decide when it feels right for me to decide. Still by the end of this year . Well, you know, certainly not before then. I want to kind of get through this year, travel around the country, sign books, help in the midterm elections in the fall and then take a deep breath and then kind of go through my pluses and minuses and what i will and will not think about by making the decision. Probably not announced until next year . Im not positive about that. The way i make decisions thats probably likely. I know its a personal decision, but if you can do that if you can do that, you see a path and can do, do you have to do it . I have to make a decision thats right for me and the country. But is the party frozen in place waiting for you . No, people can do whatever they choose to do on whatever timetable they decide. But are they disadvantaged waiting for you . You know, bill clinton started running for president officially in like, september, october of 1991. I dont think thats a, you know, real concern. People will do what they think is best for them and whether they choose to take the step is very personal for everybody. And ultimately, it has to be for you, too. Right. Absolutely. While clinton considers her final decision, it seems like the campaign has already begun, with questions about her age and health raised by Top Republicans, like karl rove. You would not be human and not have a serious brain injury like this was and take into consideration if youre thinking about what shes doing. How serious was it . It was, you know, i think a serious concussion. The clot in addition, if clot had dislodged well, that was a scary point. You had trouble with vision. Because of the force of the fall, i had double vision for a short period of time and i had some dizziness. So no lingering effects . No. You would release your medical records if you ran for president . Absolutely. And what would you like to say to karl rove about your brain . That, i know he was called bushs brains in one of the books written about him and i wish him well. Age . Age, yes. Isnt it great to be our age. Mitch mcconnell said at one point, 2016 would be the return of the golden girl. That was a very popular, longrunning tv series. There will also be scrutiny of clintons record, especially the last four years as secretary of state. No surprise its polarizing. Our new poll shows that 90 of democrats think she did a good job, only 27 of republicans. And theres bipartisan concern about how she handle the bengha benghazi. 13 hearings, as you pointed out, 25,000 documents turned over, theres going to be another hearing in the house, are you going to testify . Well, thats going to be up to the people running the hearing, im not going to say one way or another. Well see how they conduct themselves. Whether or not this is one more travesty of the loss of four americans or is this in the best tradition of congress. You can watch dianes entire interview, a onehour primetime special, right here on abc tomorrow at 9 00 eastern. Now to the firestorm over Bowe Bergdahl, the fbi is being called in to handle the growing backlash against his release. We have new details about how hes doing right now, what he went through during nearly five years of captivity. Abcs Martha Raddatz is here with the latest. Good morning, martha. Reporter good morning, george. Bowe bergdahl is doing remarkable well physically, but hes now telling staff at the hospital in germany that he spent time in a cage and hes still not ready to cope with a family reunion. It was after an escaped attempt that bergdahl was kept in a small metal cage in the dark. According to a senior official. But his physical recovery is going well. The New York Times saying he has problems only with his skin and gums. Yet a senior official says the 28yearold soldier is not yet mentally prepared to see his parents and he has no idea the firestorm his release has created. Its hard to believe that just over a week ago, Bowe Bergdahls parents were celebrating, this morning there have been threats against the familys lives. So serious, the fbi has been called in. One said the ugly turn of events happened quickly for a variety of reasons. First, the circumstances of his capture, this week, we learned the results of an Army Investigation done at the time of bergdahls disappearance. It backs up what some fellow soldiers have said, that bergdahl walked away from his base willingly. He was not forcefully taken off the base. He left on his own accord. Reporter then the swap. The trade provoking sharp criticism and even jokes from republican senator rand paul. Mr. President , you love to trade people. Why dont we set up a trade, but this time instead of five taliban, how about five democrats . Im thinking john kerry, Hillary Clinton, nancy pelosi couldnt we send them to mexico. Reporter finally, theres the deal how it was handled politically. The startling comments from National Security adviser on civil rights to george right here on this week. The administration is still defending those comments. Saying rice was talking about bergdahls service before he walked away from the base. But he was in less than a year and he did nothing that stood out. We have learned that bergdahl does not to be called sergeant. He was promoted automatically during his captivity, hes telling staff he did not earn it. And george, its still not clear when hell be back to the United States. But he wont directly home. Hell go to an Army Medical Center in texas. Yes, theyre taking it step by step. Hes showing great selfawareness there. Yes. Okay, martha, thanks. Now, lets get the latest on those five taliban leaders that were traded for bergdahl, theyre now in qatar. Abcs brian ross with the abcs brian ross is on their trail on how theyre living now. Reporter its been a week since the five senior taliban leaders arrived here. In the midst of luxury in this tiny, prosperous country. Goftd Officials Say the former detainees are free to travel wherever they like in qatar. The country with the highest per capita income in the world and the fivestar hotels and other trappings of wealth and prosperity to prove it. Since their arrival to a heros welcome seven days ago, the five former detainees have been kept hidden from view by the qatar government. And told not to talk to any reporters. The taliban operate here out of a villa in an upscale residential community. Theyll be free to talk and meet with whomever they like. The qatar government says theyll closely monitor all of their communications and movement. In a statement over the weekend, their first, the five men say theyll comply with the agreement to return to afghanistan or the battlefield, over the next year. George . Okay, brian, thanks. Lots of questions for the chairman of the house intelligence committee, mike rogers, he joins us now. Congressman, thank you for joining us this morning. Lets begin with the five men, you have seen the intelligence on these five men, what is your sense of what theyll do after this year is up . Well, and were not even sure theyll wait a year, their real value in the next 51 weeks is propaganda by the taliban. We have already seen that start. They can meet with taliban political leaders in qatar, they can have family members travel to qatar, and back through pakistan and afghanistan. And we believe thats certainly an opportunity for a Courier Network to get them prepared for whats next. I dont think youll see any operational activity by them now. Theyre smart enough to know better. It allows them to prepare for whats next and thats going to be to join the fight. Youre convinced of that . Im absolutely convinced of that. We have seen both in their rhetoric and actions and certainly the information we see coming out of the taliban, including the network in pakistan, that suggests. Its absolutely going to happen. Maybe not all five. I believe three for sure, likely four, and that fifth one is on the fence, but will probably say play rosome role in active operations. Anything we can do to prevent that . Well, unfortunately, the deal is done. Thats the problem here. One thing about this, george, the focus has been, is one soldier worth it, not worth it . I think that completely misses the problem here. This is a huge regional and geopolitical problem for the United States now. Hostages are now currency in the war on terror. But secondly, think about what happened in the last week, america said were leaving in 2016 completely, we negotiated with the terrorists, and by the way, this happened before the election even occurred. This weekend, this weekend, the taliban tried to assassinate one of the political leaders, abdullah abdullah, whos running for office in afghanistan. This was the wrong message at the wrong time. And were going to pay for this decision for years. This shouldnt be about congress being invited to the party. This is all about this honest discussion about what the ramifications of this is. Youre very clear, you said you wouldnt have made the trade. What about the bedrock principle of soldiers creed, i will never looech a leave a comrade. Those of who have followed this for years, this wasnt the only option that was available. The administration said it was. No, this administration has this theory youre either with them thats wrong. So, the reason they avoided congress, this isnt about what we didnt get invited to the party and we should have our feelings hurt, its because we can empower all of the people, diplomats who disagreed with this decision. Military folks. That voice never got heard in the final discussions leading up to this deal. Thats why you engage with congress. We can empower those voices. We can get those questions asked. So you dont make a mistake that actually might jeopardize, diplomats, aide workers and soldiers as we move forward. Thats what my fear is as we move forward. Had Bowe Bergdahl been captured during a battle, would you still be opposed to this deal . Yes. Remember, he was in pakistan, not all that far we believe from an isi and their Intelligence Service and military outpost, so now theres two others, an american in pakistan, bergdahl was in pakistan, certainly osama bin laden, pakistan, theres a reoccurring theme here. The fbi, george, we would call that a clue. This is a problem and a place to start. We never went at pakistan with any level of pressure. There were other options on the table. Many still classified that never even rose to the level of discussion. I think thats the problem. Remember, its not just getting the soldier out, and were glad and happy for the family thats great. But its a bigger ramification of what this trade means to afghans that we have asked to risk their lives trying to free that country of the taliban. What should happen with bergdahl now . If hes found to have deserted, should he be punished . Or, has he already paid the price . Well, i think the department of defense needs to do a very thorough investigation. Obviously, those soldiers are very concerned by it and very p upset about it. You jeopardized other soldiers when you walk away from your post, period, end of story and thats a serious, serious matter. But it needs to be thoroughly investigated by the department of defense. The administration trying to change the narrative through the leaks to the papers what was or wasnt. They should stop all of that. We need to have a full discussion right now about the policy implications, broader implications that just occurred. Final questions, the question about impeachment, should impeachment be on the table . Well, again, you know, thats a long way down this road and the most disturbing part about this, george, is that in 2011, their answers to the questions about for a bipartisan opposition to this trade, by the way, was a whole series of things that had to happen, and one struck me, by the secretary of state at that time, if none of the conditions were met. None of them will be met. Like, renouncing violence, adhering to the afghan constitution and making sure that women are treated fairly in afghanistan, we got none of that. I think thats where we ought to focus right now. We have made a serious, serious, geopolitical mistake. We empowered the taliban, the one thing they wanted more than anything, george, is they wanted recognition from the u. S. Government so they can use that to propagandize. Thats where we need to focus. We need to unwind this thing before we fix it. This is as serious as i have seen it. We need to work through these issues. I encourage the administration to come back to congress, as the law requires, to have these discussions. To get the answers before you move forward. Congressman, thanks very much for your time this morning. Thanks, george. The debate over bergdahl has brought guantanamo back in the spotlight. The president pledged to shut down during his campaign. Abcs chief National Correspondent byron pitts got a rare look inside. Reporter justice moves slowly at Guantanamo Bay. Of the 149 who remain inside the wires, some like alleged 9 11 architect will face trial. But many others, like the five taliban commanders freed in exchange for Bowe Bergdahl, were never charged. At this point, were stending no more than ten feet away from the detainees. They cant see us. This glass were seeing is onesided. Inside one camp its dark. Were asked to keep quiet. Theyre calling for the guard. So, you guys cant be seen. Reporter we step back. We noticed when the guards went in they wore those protective shields to protect their faces. Shields protect from cocktails of urine and feces that have been hurled in their direction. A few minutes, afternoon prayer begins. And were soon escorted out. 700 men have come through gitmo. Some say past allegations of waterboarding and hungry strikes have turned this place into a terrorist recruiters dream. These men are ghosts. Theyre not being held for who they are. Theyre being held for our idea of who they are. Reporter the defense secretary has final signoff on transfers. And the white house has been pressuring him to pick up the pace of transferring lowlevel detainees. National security adviser susan rice reportedly asking last month for updates every two weeks. Commander of the joint detention center. How concerned should the American Public, at some point, this place will close, theyll be transferred . As a private citizen, and a military officer, i think we need to be concerned about it. Reporter why . Once we transfer them to another country, were obviously losing control over that. Reporter nearly half the men here have already been cleared to leave by an independent review panel, identified as, bodyguards to drivers. Waiting for hagels transfer order. The other, more dangerous detainees may need to be transferred to u. S. Prisons. You believe at some point, that some of the detainees at Guantanamo Bay will serve their time on u. S. Soil . Yes, i do. Reporter i can hear some folks in congress saying, over my dead body. In addition to other issues with guantanamo, it is enormously expensive. Reporter so, as the sun sets on gitmo, the dilemma which of these prisoners pose a continuing threat and where should they go . For this week, byron pitts, abc news, Guantanamo Bay. And the roundtable weighs in later in the program. Up next, our closer look, is seattle leading the way in living wage. That debate in two minutes. The minimum wage. mother vo when i was pregnant. I got more advice than i knew what to do with. What i needed was information i could trust on how to take care of me and my baby. Luckily, unitedhealthcare has a Simple Program that helps moms stay on track with their doctors and get the right care and guidancebefore and after the baby is born. Simple is good right now. anncr vo innovations that work for you. Thats health in numbers. Unitedhealthcare. Youre not doing anything as fast as you used to, which is funny, cause i still do it better than her. [ afi ] i do not like sweeping its a little frustrating. [ zach ] i cant help out as much as i used to. 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Abcs Neal Karlinsky in seattle. Reporter across the country, this spring has seen protests by fastfood workers demanding a raise. Fastfood workers and all workers deserve a living wage. Reporter democrats are listening, hoping it will be a winning issue for them in the midterm election. The minimum wage, even if it doesnt affect you or your family, its an issue of basic fairness. Reporter seattle has done something that no other city has come close to, raising the minimum wage to more than double the federal rate, an unprecedented 15 an hour, the nations highest hourly wage. If we want to regain our economic strengths the minimum wage is going to have to raise. Reporter newly elected seattle mayor ed murray says his city is setting an example others should follow. And he is not afraid of the criticism. Im sure you read and heard some of these things. Seems ready to turn his city into a gigantic laboratory. One of the most ambitious labor experiments. I think were acting as a laboratory of democracy. Because the federal government is not acting. The seattle approach is the way out. You rebuild the middle class, you get back to a vibrant economy. Reporter this Restaurant Owner says her cafe and others will almost certainly be forced to lay off workers and possibly close because 15 an hour will put her in the red. Some of us might lose our livelihood if we cant keep our businesses open, but whos really going to pay for it . The workers in the restaurant industry. Once we get to 15, the cafe is pretty difficult. Reporter the new rate will be phased in over several years. The International Franchise union isnt waiting and plans to sue to protect small businesses. But the mayor says, he isnt worried. I actually feel pretty excited about the work we did, the very difficult negotiations we had between business labor and nonprofits to reach a good balance. And i think its a model for the nation to look at. Reporter for this week, Neal Karlinsky, abc news, seattle. And lets get more on this from paul gigot and katrina vanden heuvel. Paul, you heard the mayor, he said seattle will be a model. Well, if its a model, well find out if it works. When you raise the cost of labor, you outprice a lot of people out of the labor market. Particularly, the young, the least skilled. Those who want to get on, on that basic wrung on the ladder. And move up. Look, i worked for minimum wage. I worked for 2. I had jobs what did i learn i learned to show up on time. I learned certain skills. I learned that i didnt want to make the minimum wage for the rest of my life. I better get an education. Katrina, what about that argument, this will squeeze young people out of the job. Listen, this is smart economics. Its good politics and its morally right. Only 1 out of 10 minimum wage workers, is a teenager or a young person, you know, who are the real job creators in this country . Its a strong middle class. They create jobs. You create growth. Its a winning issue. 76 of americans support this. Its republicans and et cetera. Morally, what does it say about america . If youre an american and you work full time and you live in poverty, its a broken economic system. Henry ford had it right. A good capitalist. He put money in the pockets of his workers to buy cars. And he created a middle class. The ceo of mcdonalds. They understand people have money in their pockets. They spend it. What theyre going to do probably, mcdonalds going to hire a lot of people, theyre going to have kiosks. And automation. But a lot of people who employ the minimum wage workers are lowmargin businesses, restaurants, cafes, retail, they are the ones who cant afford to pass the cost along. The biggest employer of lowwage workers, walmart i mean, walmart is being subsidized by taxpayers, because their workers cant afford food. Were getting socked as taxpayers on both ends. There are enlightened businesses, costco, stride rite. Trader joes. Big businesses with big profit margins. Walmart, they can afford it. They dont mind. They play politics. Theyll go along with it. Then its their competitors there are studies that have demolished the idea that increasing the minimum wage will cost lowwage workers jobs. That Congressional Budget Office showed the benefits of raising the minimum wage outweighs the costs. You lift nearly a million out of poverty. 500,000 lowwage jobs will be lost if a minimum wage is increased. You have seen mitt romney, you have seen other Top Republicans coming out for minimum wage. It always polls well. I think people should get a raise. What they dont see are the jobs that are never created. Thats harder to detect and its harder to show up in polls. When that 500,000 figure came out from the cbo, they said, you know what, thats a very powerful argument. I dont think its going to pass. You know what. Last word. Its about the values of this country. If were a country that believes in a strong middle class and healthy families, we need rules of the road to do that and i think hiking the minimum wage, by the way, enormous productivity gains of the last four decades were factored in, the minimum wage today would be 22. We need to have a sense of fairness in this country. That also is good for business and the economy. We got to take a break. Thank you very much. Well be right back with the powerhouse roundtable. The take on Bowe Bergdahl and hillarys launch. But first the big winners of the week. But first the big winners of the week. To your old cleaning ways again not once youve tried mr. Cleans new liquid muscle. Its a concentrated liquid gel with 2 1 2 times more power per drop, so a little goes a long way. New liquid muscle. When it comes to clean, theres only one mr. So, whos georges big winner . Back with that in just 30 seconds. Heat shields are compromised. We have multiple failures. Are those thrusters burning . Thats a negative. Whats that alarm . Fuel cell two is down. Im going to have to guide her in manually. This is very exciting. But im at my stop. Come again . Im watching this on the train. Its so hard to leave. Good luck with everything. With the uverse tv app, the uverse revolves around you the uverse revolves around you and now, georges pick. Seattle hero jon meis. Did he make a deal with the devil on releasing those five taliban . I think this was a very hard choice, which is why i think my book is so aptly named. If you look at what the factors were going into the decision, of course, there are competing interests and values. And one of our values is, we bring everybody home off the battlefield, the best we can. It doesnt matter how they ended up in a prisoner of war situation. It doesnt matter . It does not matter. We bring our people home. Talk about all of this on the roundtable. Bowe bergdahl and Hillary Clinton. Were joined by tom cole, alicia menendez, matthew dowd, Bill Richardson and Martha Raddatz, whos back as well. Hes glad Bowe Bergdahl is home, but he would not support the deal . Well, i think the president did the right thing, i know its controversial, it was a prisoner swap at a time when were winding down a war. Leave no soldier behind. I have been involved in these negotiations as well. You negotiated with the taliban back in 1998 . Yeah, theyre very tough, theyre very shifty, so the deal was made at a time when his safety and health were being jeopardized. But at the same time, i think it might lead in the future to a lessening of the tensions with the taliban. I think that might be a tall order. I think the president was totally justified with what he did. Look, congressman, could he had the both ways . Look, i wouldnt have traded murphy for these five guys. Lets talk about who they are. These are five terrorists, they have blood of america on their hands. This was bad policy. Obviously, everybody is happy when somebody comes home, regardless. Frankly, a lot of people are saying that. Its not a partisan debate. This was a big mistake. I think this is an interesting issue to me, because everybody sort of approaches it from a partisan lens. I think theres, for me, three big points, one, its totally confusing to me. We would have sent him to kill these same five men. At a time when were in the midst of a war, in the midst of a conflict, with a very fragmented enemy and were releasing five of them into combat. Why we were in afghanistan and iraq to begin with . Wars that seemed to have no real outcome on them. Second, as byron pitts reports, Guantanamo Bay, which is there are all kind of human rights violations, these prisoners have seen no justice, no fair process, and finally, three, from a political perspective on this, the White House Administration has totally mismanaged this. The president and susan rice stood up there like it was saving private ryan. When we have that situation, the president he should have never stood up with the parents when he knew the information about this soldier was going to come out. Alicia, information came out this week showing real anger suggesting that other soldiers died searching for him. H were in the middle of the war, were at the end of the war. Were winding this down. This is what happens at the end of a war. We transfer and trade prisoners. I think it opens up a big conversation. We have a president who twice campaigned to close Guantanamo Bay. One campaigning to do that. Are we actually going to be able to execute that . Its going to be tough. Also, this question of what should happen to Bowe Bergdahl, you have the details of his state of mind right now, the military came out this week and emphasize more that his actions will be investigated. They have aleady been investigated. They found he walked away willingly. Twice, right . Yes, when he was captured. They said he wandered away one other time. One time in california, he wandered away quite a bit. The one missing element is his side of the story. Why did he do it . Did he intend to go, talk to the taliban . I mean, everyone everyone believes that he was held against his will, definitely. George, in talking to some soldiers and military, this shows a fundamental misunderstanding on the part of the administration, about the military, what the reaction would be in the celebration in the rose garden. They saw it coming. Thats why they tried to get out ahead of it, bill. No evidence that hes a deserter. At the same time the soldiers will say hes a deserter. I was a governor and we dealt with a lot of young men that came back from iraq and afghanistan with ptsd and mental issues. This is probably what happened to the young man. But that doesnt mean that we should not make every maximum effort to leave a soldier behind. This is a time when our military that said, unless we get them out now, and i know the taliban, because of health and safety issues, were never going to get him out. So, we had to do this. I think weve gotten lost in this whole thing whether or not hes deserter. Every single human life has value, including the taliban. I dont think thats the question. I dont think its a question i have a son who served in iraq and a brother who served in panama and kuwait. The question becomes, how do we do it and when do we do it . And i think in this situation, most of the American Public believes, here are five enemy combatants, whether or not were winding down the war, theyre not winding down the war, theyre going to continue to be enemy combatants whether were there or or not. Were going to risk soldiers lives. Moving on to Hillary Clinton. Congressman cole, no delight from the president on bergdahl. From what we have seen of her interview with diane sawyer, no daylight on the president , any doubt, do you assume that shes going to be the democratic nominee . Yes. I certainly do. Not much doubt to me, and you can look at these really incredibly dull memoirs and know shes still a politician. Well never get a great memoir out of Hillary Clinton until its done. One of the things that we have seen, alicia, fascinating, shes trying to clean up some past mistakes. Also, in the book, in the interview as well, a lot more emphasis on her softer side, which she also didnt do in the 2007 and 2008 campaigns. On top of that, we see her building the case on her time as secretary of state. Saying i have accomplishments i can point to. Reclaiming americas place in the world. Shell have to build an economic narrative that she can sell to americans to get them excited about the possibility of her being president. After watching that interview and after watching this book rollout, theres very little possibility that shes going to run in the course of this. The big question mark in this memoir that came on to me, she knows the difficult balance, what does she do with president obama . Because shes projecting forward that president obama is going to be an unpopular president. Getting a third term is going to be very hard. How she wrote this book, when she mentions disagreement, i supported the president even though i disagreed with him. The other thing is to have ideas for the future, particularly on the economy. Bill richardson, one of your former fellow governors talking. Even in our poll, it shows that most democrats, even though they support Hillary Clinton, want a contest. You know the clintons dont confide in me. But i will say but i do think this poll shows tremendous support, nationally, bipartisan for her. Number two, she was a good secretary of state. Now, if im a primary candidate, you run on her left. Shes still close to wall street, but if this poll is measured, she has the support of every faction of the democratic party. The moderate faction, the business faction, the environmental faction. The progressive faction. And shes going to be very hard to beat. And lastly, on the loyalty issue, she showed her statesmanlike view that she would support the president on this bergdahl issue. And many other issues. You covered her tenure as secretary of state, did you see any other places whehre she might try to open up more differences from the president down the road . I dont see anything in particular. What this depends on is how people react to that narrative. Like alicia said, shes laid out what she did as secretary of state. The pushback is going to come now. A lot of people are going to say, wait a minute, you didnt make a difference here or there. George, inevitably is a huge burden to bear in this. She had it in 2008, it didnt turn out well. In some respects, like the Belmont Stakes yesterday, was she secretaryiat or california chrome, wins along the way, fades in the stretch . What is her biggest vulnerability . When theres no place to grow, theres no place to go. The coalition against her is actually very solid, its not going to change. People poll the same way. I think a Long Campaign is very much not to her advantage. The best day of her campaign is the day before she announces. We have to take a quick break. Nate silver is up next, he reveals his world cup predictions. And our powerhouse puzzler is inspired by the world cup. Heres julie foudy. 1999, when the u. S. Women won it a fabulous penalty kick. When was the last time the u. S. Hosted a mens world cup and who won it . And were back in two minutes with the answer. With the answer. Im sinora, and this is my son, chris. Im a messy person. I dont like cleaning. I love my son, but he never cleans up. 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And i know there are many myths out there about a reverse mortgage, so i want you to know the facts. There are currently no credit score or income requirements to qualify. You can get taxfree money from the equity in your home. You can use the money to pay off your current mortgage if you have one. The remaining money can be used for anything. Theres no monthly mortgage payments. And you still own your home call today to get your free guide and dvd. It explains how a governmentinsured reverse mortgage works. Theres no obligation. One reverse mortgage is a quicken loans company. Their licensed experts can answer all your questions. Call to find out what a great solution this can be. Dont wait, call now so, when was the last time the u. S. Hosted the mens world cup and who won . This question is to too hard, but lets see how you do. The heat last year. Thats the only that counts. Brazil and brazil. The last time the u. S. Hosted a mens world cup was in 1994. And you may remember, brazil beat italy, 32, on penalty kicks, and it was actually the first time a world cup had ever been decided on a penalty kick shootout. All right, were back in one minute with nate silvers world cup predictions. Minute with nate silvers world cup predictions. [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. [ birds squawking ] my mom makes airplane engines that can talk. [ birds squawking ] my mom makes hospitals you can hold in your hand. My mom can print Amazing Things right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] my mom makes trains that are friends with trees. [ train whistle blows ] my mom works at ge. Theres the u. S. National soccer team getting ready for the world cup, winning a friendly match against nigeria last night. But what are their chances for 2 biggest prize in the world of sports, the world cup . Abcs paula faris went to our experts at fivethirtyeight for some answers. Reporter who better at predicting the worlds biggest championship tournament, than fivethirtyeight guru nate silver. You played soccer, but your career ended when . I think in sixth or seventh grade, it was my least worst sport. Reporter and now, nate and his team have whipped up their world cup forecast. So its all based on numbers . Its all based on numbers. Theres not any subjective component to it. Were trying to account both of the quality of athletes and the performances. Reporter nate found everything counts. The farther you travel, the tougher to win. Especially east to west. That might help the other south american teams. It might hurt a team like japan, coming in from the other side of the world. Reporter but the big question for american fans, how will the u. S. Do . The last time the team advanced out of the group stage and nate gives them a 37 chance to do it again. They played pretty well together as a team. Reporter but the chances the u. S. Wins it all, nate says, its just 4 . Well, make it. 4 . Words in jim carrey, youre saying theres a chance. There is a chance. Things like this can happen. Its a tough year to be an underdog. Reporter its because of teams like these, the heavy hitters, brazil, argentina, spain and germany. You have four terrific teams that might be favorites in any other year. Reporter big drum roll, who are predicting to win the 2014 world cup . Its brazils world cup to lose. I feel like anyone who doesnt say brazil is trying too hard to be contrarian. Reporter way to go out on the limb. Yes. This is a year in particular where its a good year for the favorites. Reporter all right, nate, thank you so much. Well be watching. See you in rio. Thank you. Nates full world cup predictions tomorrow on fivethirtyeight. Com. Now, lets go back to rio. Julie foudy, look at the scene there, where the world cup is going to begin later this week. Of course, julie won the world cup twice for u. S. Womens soccer. Julie, we just heard nates hard truth,. 4 for team usa. Even the coach said the team cant win. I know, and although, george, they looked good last night, the u. S. Against nigeria, its probably pretty realistic. Because all of the big boys are here, as paula said, the Strongest Team the u. S. Probably had in a very long time and the deepest team, the biggest challenge for them is of course theyre put in this group of death, ghana their first game knocked them out of the world cup. Portugal has the best player in the world in Cristiano Ronaldo and germany. They won three world cups. Thats their group. Thats the big challenge. Were looking at baby steps for the u. S. And how do you handicap the world cup overall . Do you agree with nate . I actually am going to be a contrarian here, george, and i think brazil is the obvious choice, of course, being the host here. But im going with argentina, besides having one of the best players in the world, lionel messi, has a tremendous team as well. Theyre from south america as well, they have a lot of fans coming. Im going to go with argentina to win this world cup, not brazil, because theres tremendous pressure on brazil being the host. It looks so beautiful right there right now, but there have been a lot of protests, some security concerns, how is that playing down there . Well, its interesting, because, brazil is known for this love of football and this joy and its in their hearts and their souls, but theres this undercurrent, when you walk around, i was out yesterday, theres this undercurrent of concern about how much money was spent on this world cup. Surprisingly, everybody thought that the antigovernment protests, whats more disruptive are the strikes. In a city of 30 Million People theyre having a transit strike in its fourth day, and thats become a real concern, theyre seeing this sadness, the money being spent. So, when you look at it, how this brazil team does, is going to be really a test of the attitude of this country and how they approach this world cup. Julie, thank you very much. You can watch the world cup action all day long on espn, the coverage begins on thursday. When we come back the tea party scores a win this week. Our roundtable weighs in. Theres Chris Mcdaniel. Forcing a runoff. Its a boost for the tea party after some setbacks this season that have established republicans feeling good about taking back the senate. The roundtable weighs in after this. Reporter the Tea Party Announced that its back with a bang. Oni ernst, the Harley Davidson mom of three, blew past her rival to capture a Republican Senate nomination. Shes vowing to make washington squeal. I grew up cast rating hogs on an iowa farm. When i get to washington, ill know how to cut pork. Reporter the same night ernst won in iowa a stunner in mississippi. Newcomer Chris Mcdaniel forced a primary runoff with a senator since 1978. National Tea Party Groups are backing mcdaniel, a former radio talk show host. Now comes a threeweek sprint of a runoff. Mcdaniel supporters were accused of secretly taping cochrans bedridden wife. And this attempt to define a spanish term. Reporter mcdaniels comments have some republicans worried about a rerun of recent tea party tumbles. Could this be a repeat of 2010 or 2012, a candidate ended up doing things that are disqualifying. I think the todd aiken things were one time. Reporter for republicans, though, it guarantees at least a few more weeks of not so friendly fire. For this week, rick kline, abc news, washington. Were now back with the roundtable. Let me bring in congressman cole, you spear headed republican campaigns in the past. Mcdaniel the only Real Tea Party star whos looking to have a chance to win one of these primaries, making a lot of your colleagues excited about the prospects of taking back the senate. I think well take back the senate. You look at seven deep red states, were probably going to win six, or all seven. Iowa, i think well win. Colorado, long shots in virginia. Maybe not quite so long in michigan and new hampshire. So, you know, the board looks pretty good. The fights we have had have been spirited. Predicting a kind of wave of the incumbent wave of the white house . It becomes what the Current Administration is doing and what the president s job approval. The president s job approval is in the low 40s. Which means republicans will pick up seats in the course of this. I think whats interesting about this race in mississippi, the Tea Party Candidate that have won, its wasnt about the quote, unquote, the tea party. The constituents became immersed in the status quo. I think mcdaniel wins this race and he wins in november. Mississippi is red. All of top lines are definitely about the republicans. They got the candidates they want. But i also think theres an interesting conversation happening on the democratic side, where progressive candidates winning in iowa and california and new jersey. Potentially changing the composition of their caucus. I believe well narrowly retain the senate, narrowly, but if we lose the senate, i think the president needs to concentrate on Global Climate change, on executive orders. I think it would be unfortunately, the death nail of immigration reform. What i would do if i were the president in that case, put a moratorium on deportation. I think the senate very narrowly. The president seems to be gearing up for Something Like that, migrant children, up to 1,000 being brought to centers in arizona. Its a policy failure much more broadly. I dont think conditions in Central America are different than two, three years ago. We made a decision, if youre an unaccompanied minor, you show up in the United States, were not only going to take you in, were probably going to keep you, i think thats encouraging news. Not a policy thought. People want to help people in crises, its the appropriate thing to do. On the other hand, you cant have an open invitation for everybody who comes to the border. I think theres legislation that can easily go before congress, we know what comprehensive immigration policy looks like. We have the same conversation every two years. Its time for congress to act on this. Its no longer a partisan issue. It is a humanitarian crisis. On top of that, its an economic crisis. We need to be honest. Were out of time. I apologize. Well be back after this from our abc and now, we honor our fellow americans who serve and sacrifice. This week the pentagon released the names of two soldiers killed in afghanistan. And thats all for us today. Thanks for sharing part of our sunday with us. Check out with world news with david muir tonight and ill see you tomorrow on good morning america. Nd ill see you tomorrow on good morning america. In the news, temperatures will heat newspaper the bay area today raising concerns about fire danger. And the rant continues, the coowners latest comments following the horses failed bid for the triple crown. Taking a look from the roof cam. Hazy sunshine to get us going. Cooler conditions around the coast. And downright scorching inland. Ill have the Weather Forecast where you live coming up. Abc7 news at nine is next