Public a violent and those who wanted to remain attached to the United Kingdom as bricks it reopened old wounds while the u.k. As a whole those to leave the e.u. Northern Ireland voted to stay while the desire to remain in the European club galvanized nationalists to make moves towards building a United Ireland will others join their cause is there the appetite for upheaval among voters on either side of the border will changing demographics and economics play their part and could think Kring with the status quo provoke the extremists on both sides to return to violence we explore the impetus for a united Ireland and we hear why there are still powerful forces ranged against it that's the real story from the b.b.c. Coming up after the news. I'm Jack Speer Christine bossy Ford's lawyers continue to negotiate with the Senate Judiciary Committee about possible testimony next week but as N.P.R.'s Scott destroy reports top Republicans sound increasingly ready to vote for George Brett Kavanaugh were guard less of what Ford tells lawmakers about his alleged sexual assault of her and high school board's lawyers have said she'll testify about her claim that Cavanagh assaulted her in high school but only under certain conditions according to a Senate Republican source g.o.p. Committee staff use some of force demands as quote nonstarters that includes the committee calling other witnesses and having Cavanaugh testify before she does Fort also wants to delay the hearing which is currently scheduled for Monday still top Republicans are sounding like they aren't taking Ford's allegation seriously Majority Leader Mitch McConnell spoke to the Values Voter Summit the small but here's what I wanted to in a very near future. Judge Kavanaugh will be on the United States Supreme Court and President from Question 4 to count on Twitter urging the Senate to quote take the vote Scott d'être n.p.r. News deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein is denying a New York Times report the claims last year he suggested secretly recording President Donald Trump in the White House to expose chaos in the administration and float the idea of trying to remove Trump from office of the 25th Amendment Rosen signs saying today the story is quote inaccurate and factually incorrect The Times cites individuals who describe the episode but who are not named floodwaters to force the shutdown of a power plant and overrun a cooling lake along the Cape Fear River in North Carolina David borax of member station w f a e reports Duke Energy says it shut down the gas fired Sutton plant near Wilmington after floodwaters reached the plant Overnight officials are watching to see if the flooding affects coal ash stored at the site says state environmental Secretary Michael Reagan what we know is the case your river has spilled into the Sun Lake set lake has spilled over into Duke's transmission. So they have evacuated their employees the officials still don't know if any coal ash has reached the Cape Fear River coal ash contains toxic heavy metals Duke shut down a coal fired plant there in 2013 a spokeswoman says the flooding is an evolving situation workers are shoring up the walls containing the coal ash and planning repairs for n.p.r. News I'm David Borax in Charlotte federal prosecutors are seeking to send a message to clergy namely they cannot escape allegations of sexual abuse even if they flee the country in New Mexico a fugitive pre-supposed of child abuse has been extradited from Morocco it world Arthur parole vanished in 1902 f.b.i. Special Agent James Landon Burr the f.b.i. And our partners were determined to make sure he faced justice. No matter how long it took or how far we had to go to get paroled been a chaplain it Kirkland Air Force Base in Santa Fe National Cemetery on Wall Street today the Dow was up 86 points the Nasdaq closed lower This is n.p.r. . A shakeup is coming to the u.s. Stock market the s. And p. $500.00 is changing how the index classifies some of the biggest tech media and telecom companies N.P.R.'s Alina so you quote ports these stocks are merging into a new sector called communication services 2 of the biggest stocks affected by this change are Facebook and Google spare and company alphabet for years they were traded as part of the information technology sector but they're no longer viewed as pure technology stocks they're also data companies and advertising companies so now their stocks along with Twitter and video game maker Electronic Arts are part of the communications services sector This means they will now trade alongside telecom and media giants 18 t. And Verizon and in addition Comcast Walt Disney and Netflix will leave the consumer discretionary sector to also join this new communication sector Alina so you n.p.r. News officials in Tanzania say at least 130 people are now confirmed dead after a ferry sank on Lake Victoria at last word about 40 people been rescued after the ferry capsized and sank Thursday but still say it's still not clear how many people were on board 100 stood and watched as bodies were pulled from the capsized vessel which authorities say appeared to have been badly overcrowded at the time of the mishap some officials say they expected Beth toll could rise to more than $200.00 the ferry was apparently only designed to carry about $100.00 people little futures prices under the week modestly higher oil up 7 tenths of a percent to settle at $7178.00 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange I'm Jack Speer n.p.r. News in Washington support for n.p.r. Comes from n.p.r. Stations other contributors include Zoom Zoom offers cloud video conferencing on line meetings and a video conference room solution in one platform featuring digital video and audio with Screen Sharing a cow registration and more Ed zoned out u.s. . Welcome to The Real Story I'm on this week we're asking if breaks it may have boosted the prospects of a united Ireland in 1908 the Good Friday Agreement brought peace to Northern Ireland for 3 decades before that the violence that became known as The Troubles had pitted those who wanted to remain part of the u.k. Against those who wanted a united Ireland the Good Friday agreement offered reassurance to all parties in the north that the future had more than one possibility for unionists it offered confirmation that Northern Ireland remained in divisible part of the United Kingdom on the other hand nationalists have the pledge that if they were to be a knight at all and it would be decided in a referendum by the people of both North and South breaks it has appended this delicate balance the Good Friday agreement was based on the idea that both the u.k. And the Republic were members of the e.u. In the BRICs referendum Northern Ireland voted to remain supporters of reunification have seized on this to argue that by uniting with the Republic Northern Ireland could still remain a part of the e.u. Well it's far from clear that this idea has the support of the majority of people in the north but could demographics worries about breaks it and changing attitudes transform that could breaks it have opened the door to a United Ireland that's the topic for this week's Real Story we'll introduce our panel in a moment but 1st if you've been following the torturous negotiations between the e.u. And the u.k. Ever breaks it you'll know that the question of the Irish border is now the single biggest sticking point in those talks Jane McCall Mack is a b.b.c. Political reporter in Northern Ireland and she explained why the border is such a difficult issue for both sides to resolve if I can just set this hour for your listeners maybe some of them have never even visited the island of Ireland the border where Northern Ireland meets the Republic of Ireland is 310 miles long with hundreds of crossing points 208 formal and loads more that are in form on thousands of people make their way over this every day for. Work and pleasure as the huge minds of goods and services like food and medicine and even animals for example livestock and after bags that people will still be able to move freely across the border that is guaranteed under an arrangement which predates the a you called the common travel area but because the u.k. Is leaving the e.u. Single market and Customs Union it's dealing with the goods and services part and they don't face any customer checks at the moment this is where things get really tricky because after brags that there needs to be some sort of way to track what's coming in and out of the u.k. From the e.u. Just to give an example of just tricky this is for officials to even try just come up with some solution to if you go to some parts of Northern Ireland Take for example the border where for my mates kind of cabin there's a little bridge in the Black Lion Bell coup area you take one step across that bridge and you're in to the border you're into the Republic of Ireland and that part cross back over it you're back in from Ana there are so many areas like that dotted all over Northern Ireland where the border is invisible and it's been like that for such a long time and people talk about a haul of border that concerns about a hard border just gives a sense of of why on the island of Olland the idea of a hard border along that particular bit of land is such a traumatic and difficult memory if you cast your mind back 2 or 3 decades there used to be what's referred to as the hard border between northern Ireland and the republic not a physical wall per se but but actual security and customs checkpoints and they bear some terrible memories for people here in Northern Ireland the Good Friday Agreement signed in 1990 that brought several decades of violence in Northern Ireland to an end and it also removed those checkpoints and helped to make the border practically invisible as I was talking about what it's like at the moment and the concern is that bringing back any sort of physical infrastructure like cameras or even guard posts could undermine all of that. Yes And in fact the police here have even said that reinstating those checks could even make them crossing targets for violence so both the u.k. And you have said well you know what we're committed to avoiding a hard border we don't want that but the problem is they're at odds over hard to achieve that and one last thought then for people living along the border on a daily basis what does it mean where do they base themselves there are so many people that travel over the border day and day art for work there are people that students who go to school over the border and cross that day in day out and at the minute the problem is because neither the e.u. Or the u.k. Have come up with any clear compromise for moving forward people here are left uncertain businesses here have no idea 6 months away from the u.k. Leaving the e.u. How they are actually going to function after bags that whether or not they're going to be charged extra for bringing in their goods from over the border they just don't know and at the minute anybody that you talk to who lives in one of these border areas is really saying we just don't know what's going to happen b.b.c. Political reporter Jane McCormack that's given us a sense of the tensions and issues that are at stake here let me introduce our panel and we can explore some of their thoughts Lord m.p. Regiment he is the chairman of the else to Unionist Party it was for many years the most popular Unionist Party in Northern Ireland though its influence has waned since the Good Friday Agreement in 1980 and it no longer sends any M.P.'s to the u.k. Parliament nemesis and is a unionist a political commentator in Northern Ireland and a columnist for The Irish Times did Raheen and is an author and academic at the University of Ulster she describes herself as a moderate nationalist and Kevin Ma is a commentator on Irish and British politics and the author of a united ireland why unification is inevitable and how it will come about Kevin you've written the broke so briefly Can we hear your thesis We'll explore it more in the hour to come but what is the primary reason that you see unification as inevitable. We're clearly in an extraordinary period of political change in flux there's a lot of dynamic issues that are now in play Bragg's that of the chief amongst them but I think Briggs it represents for me an accelerant to that that's poured over the dry tinder of a lot of other issues demographic electoral economic constitutional on the pin by the otherness frankly of Northern Ireland I think to the British state and the general British indifference to the place and I think I think all that is now in play in that catalyzed if you like by Bragg's it by this very very sharp political issue that's that's in front of us and calls in obviously the British prime minister to resume a no small amount of difficulty this week there's always been an argument for Irish unity there's always been a pathway that has been dividing of all but I think that now is thrown into sharp relief with brags that with the issues that it throws up that demand clarity Regine p I think it's safe to say you would see the reunification of Ireland as far from inevitable I do 1st of all when we negotiated the Good Friday Agreement a process was put in place that in circumstances where the secretary of state for Northern Ireland felt that with regard to the constitutional future had changed a poll could be held the circumstances to bring that about have not occurred so therefore it's not imminent and I think as far as leaving the European Union is concerned why my party recommended that we remained in the European Union nevertheless a decision as not having taken on we must get on with it and I think that high that is brought up by it is where we should be focused on the circumstances that are giving rise to on certainties and concerns should be addressed in the process and that I think is where our focus should be at the present time Dierdre Heenan Is it inevitable that they are in the violent will we unify but I don't know efforts inevitable but probably most people thought it might happen in a number of generations time but so. Not something that was eminent that whole conversation has changed remarkably after the Good Friday Agreement it was believed that the constitutional question was largely settled Bragg's that has changed all of that and this conversation that same remote destine nice seems to be a possibility something that West discussing and discussing in a realistic way it was so remote it barely merited the mention our people would have thought about it as a pipe dream now I very as factors of Lang up to make this a real topic of discussion a new set of political circumstances not least the collapse of our devolved government the demographics in the north of Ireland the rise of nationalism the threat of a return to hard border and the social and cultural progress that has been made in the Republic of Ireland which makes it a much more attractive option for people living in the north not long ago the perceived Whetstone of people living in the north of this island was that we were culturally and socially and economically light years ahead of the the republic that was full of corruption per road bad infrastructure failing economy all of that has turned around and over markedly short period of time new nemesis Well I think that brags it has brought forward the conversation from the on the forseeable future to the forseeable future that really is what has happened you were talking about something what statistically looks like it might have been on the cards 40 years from now I really anything could have happened it's meaningless to talk about politics and the economy 4034 years hence but not really going at something that might happen 10 or 20 years hence I'm not completely transforms the conversation and brags it has also slipped an assumption that most nationalists had acquiesced to the status quo in Northern Ireland and that even a majority might not in the immediate term a vote for unity in a border poll slide probably safe to assume but almost all words the deciding swing voters in Northern Ireland with. You know it's not a majority minority Tory or the roughly 10 percent of normal lines voters in the middle here again had always been assumed to be soft nationalist but lawyer according to polls are split 3 whereas between unification and non unification undecided so we're not a perfect balance certainly at this at this very fraught stage of the brakes at negotiations moderation is not does not look like something that's likely to carry the day but let's think about some of these things that may influence attitudes the board has become a dominating issue in the BRICs negotiations I don't want to get bogged down in the minute shy of the proposals because they're complex and changeable really by the day by the minute but given that everyone has rejected the idea of a hard border has this been oh the reg as an issue absolutely and ruthlessly I think we've got to put it into perspective there's not going to be a hard core there's no need for it nobody wants it the British government has made it clear they're not going to do it no r.h. Government is conceivable is ever going to be able to do it and if Mr Barnier wants to bring his breach blocks and cement and build of them self he can but nobody else is going to do that Kevin are has it been overact. Well I mean I think the thing we can see with the difficulties treason may face is in Salzburg and convincing the e.u. 27 The Michel Barnier and the Irish government that clearly it's not over it because they're all very concerned about it so the fact that it's a it's an issue right in front of us I think of it kind of proves the point really new nemesis and you talked about there being right now a perfect balance among people's views but is the border the issue that could actually begin to change minds of well I would want to say that Nationals concerns by the hard border are genuine but there certainly has been the law for of overhyping Offit stories about needing a permit to drive your car across our path passport to take your dog cross about roving patrols of soldiers checking people within a mile of the border we've had all these over the past few months and they've all turned like to be nonsense and a cynic might say that some people are enjoying those stories certainly that their grasp on very keenly by nationalists and then there's no apparent relief when they're debunked it's not as if people say well thank goodness that's not going to happen he was disappointed to see it really do you reveling in this a bit and not at all and I don't believe it's been over it I think a lot of people actually don't understand the border and what is quite clear is when the vote happened the Irish border was an even thought about if we leave the Customs Union and the single market then we will be the only land fronted to the so there's going to have to be some hardening of the border unless we stay in the Customs Union otherwise I can't understand how you can square that circle we're told time and time again about technology there will be a technological solution yet we are told on the other hand that this technology simply doesn't exist anywhere else in the world and I think it is important I live in a border area and yes there are concerns about the economic ramifications the cultural arm for occasions the political ramifications but it is important to understand that for many people who live in a border area psychologically that border becoming invisible was a symbol of the peace process and people simply are unwilling to kindness any going back so who is changing their mind whether it's the ball. Or whether it's somebody something else did Renan is it moderate Catholics is it young people who might be changing their mind you might be moving away from this comfortable status quo that Northern Ireland perhaps is arrived at in the last 20 years well I think it's largely moderate nationalists who are relatively happy to be part of the u.k. They enjoyed being part of access the National Health Service they liked things about being part of the u.k. And still being able to have a British and Irish identity and is that largely Catholics that we're talking about largely Catholics but some soft unions also began to look to the site and say perhaps it would be better for us if we were here it could be economically better but the reality is when we see how we're being dismissed by the bags of tears in London how you have been treated the whole issue of the border kind of all of the fears of people living there well they're over eggs are over hyped they're being played up well no they're not if you're actually living there and also for moderate niceness the fact that our devolved government has collapsed and the British government seem quite content to let us go into a period of draft for almost 2 years without saying we need a fully functioning government people are also very disillusioned and angry about that new nemesis and clearly nationalist poses of old might well want to see a united Ireland now but do you think moderate Unionists are changing their mind no there have been a couple of polls that suggest that for 3 or 6 of unionists might consider voting for a united Ireland but there turned out to be issues with the sample behind all out I simply don't believe that large numbers of us are going to switch to voting for for a united Ireland there they are in for their own psychological pain though because the alternative theory asked a bite to the heart border is what's called a sea border there's going to be this is certainly part of the box stop proposal checks between Britain and to try and avoid having physical checks on the border and yes we were told the technology for that doesn't exist by Europe I'm told this week when Michel Barnier son. Alliance that in fact it's existed between Spain and the Canaries for decades and we don't I mean I find those positions change once again so without any incident the details of who said what when I do want to get into the detail I think it's efficient to explain that we're not facing a choice in Northern Ireland between a law and border or a sea border in order to protect all the integrity and complexity of all these relationships between the Europe and aren't you know started going to like the sea border any more than nationalists like somebody is going to lose I wonder what you make though I think something that danger Heenan brought up the way in which the republic is now perceived and the way the North is now perceived have the economic and social circumstances of both changed Yes And I think that the people are likely to be persuaded by are those 10 percent of alliance and Green Party voters that I mentioned earlier they are very very much influenced by the social policies of the Republican particular such a c.m. Sex marriage and abortion liberalization but I think it's a little bit much to criticize us for this as the Republican only changed its mind on these weeks ago months ago having previously hard even stricter policy the last in fact national parties nor the larger still doubling over their challenge on the opposition but the fact is that this looks like a permanent change in the Republic social liberalism that's going to be chary influential on the critical swing demographic Ridge m.p. Is your party out of step on issues like this you know we have a policy with regard to same sex marriage which is it's up to the individual it's a matter of conscience and we've held our policy for a long time and we've no plans to change it but do you worry then about the perceptions of Northern Ireland as perhaps being behind the curve as it were well that if you if you have a devolved administration with those responsibilities then you know you have to take whatever the electorate to decide to support and the sad thing is that our assembly has been collapsed for nearly 2 years but I do think we need to put this trade and board. In perspective the real border is not between Northern Ireland and the Republic it's between the Republican Great Britain because the vast majority of goods go from Dublin to Holyhead and Britain and Britain is our land border to the European Union only 1.6 percent of the republics exports come to Northern Ireland and only $1.00 of the problem in ports come from Northern Ireland so you know we're getting us way out of proportion and the goods that are travelling up and dying every day are primarily from the same people every day so to suggest that we're going to have a hard border is nonsense is that it's going to what we're more concerned about today though is the effect of the possibility of that the fact that is even being discussed what that is doing to changing people's attitudes Kevin McHale in a sense is there a captive audience for this because it's a way in which nationalists can exploit the ideas that they've always held I think what's different is that this is an issue now has become mainstreamed we're obviously talking about it on the b.b.c. Results when evidence based proposition I think I think the direction of travel of where we are is pretty clear for anybody to see in terms of in terms of the demographics in terms of a letter that women days or demographics you know is it who is it that is changing bluntly as of course we have to talk on these matters in Northern Ireland the Catholic and Protestant populations are leveling out as Newton has pointed out I think we're likely to see evidence of that in the census in 2021 we're seeing that of course in terms of electoral performance between the 2 main parties Shin Fein and the d a levelling out 1100 votes between the 2 of them just in the Assembly elections last year so so there's a sense that Northern Ireland was created again to put it bluntly as a unionist fief back in the 1920 s. That has leveled off lots of things have been dynamic in the last few years lots of things have changed the relationship between Britain and and Ireland Southern Ireland the Republic of Iowa. Has changed dramatically in that period it's got so weird in the last while with Briggs it but we're in a much better place in terms of not only North South relations here but I think East West relations as well there is a very large Irish hinterland community in Britain there are more people in Britain with an Irish granny than the around the island of Ireland and so the future between north and south and east and west is I think can be very very positive read it is there a sense in which perhaps people in Northern Ireland might feel they're rather forgotten by the mainland I don't think that could be said currently because it's such a central part of the branches argument is taken up a disproportionate amount of time so I don't think it's forgotten at all certainly in the political arena it's far from forgot the trouble has been that the current government because it's involved in it's in the difficult negotiation because it doesn't want to rock the boat with the Republic because it doesn't want to upset chin faint which incidentally could easily become a kingmaker in a future Irish government which could even happen within the next number of months and should be a very nationalist they're the party that supported the terrorist campaign over the last 30 over the 30 years so there's lots can change but I don't think at the present moment it could be said that Britain has forgotten about his attachment but what it has done is doing absolutely nothing to bring restored evolution and I think that because how do we do you pollution there are things that we could do if there were devolved here which will enable us to negotiate with the Irish government on some of these issues that are causing the problem the moment and we could come up with our own local solutions that Mr Barney a would find I think very difficult to reject on the stall months assembly is currently not sitting it is all it's not saying and I think that's one of the major problems that is leading to a lot of the concern of certain date great anger I have to say right across the community did remain and I can't. Disagree because I think why she couldn't say we have been forgotten because we're in the front of every newspaper the border has become the salient political issue I think people in the north do a favor that London really doesn't care very much of biters that we have been allowed to have this period of almost 2 years without a devolved government were traced in May simply will not step in like she has previously our governments have previously and introduced Direct will that we are alive to have this form of no director or no Deva lotion and Par is in the hands of civil servants there is no rhyme nor reason to the decisions they make sometimes they won't make decisions other times they make decisions other times they make decisions and you turn on us so people are saying well this wouldn't happen in Wales that simply would not be tolerated in Scotland so we feel like we're 2nd class citizens and we're faired up and also then the narrative going along side that is saying we're being denied rights in terms of abortion and same sex marriage we've been denied access to economic opportunities and we look to the south with envy there for example their average salary is almost twice the average salary of Northern Ireland they have managed to have a globalized economy a diverse cultural and economic development that we can only dream of well on that thought so I'm going to ask you to hold it there we will come back in the next half an hour thank you for now to all our panelists lot m.p. Regimen he did Raheen in and Kevin ma just remind you do let us know what you think of the program or any ideas for topics you'd like us to look into you can email us at the real story at b.b.c. Dot co dot u.k. And if you enjoy the program we have a podcast you can subscribe to just search for b.b.c. The real story in your podcast. Distribution of the b.b.c. World Service in the us is made possible by American Public Media with support from Exact Sciences offering Colo guard for average risk adults over 50 called 0 guard is a noninvasive colon cancer screening test that can be used at home of a global by prescription only information at Colo guard test dot com. This is your local public radio station there 91.7 f.m. You know good agent matches buyers and sellers with top performing real estate agents and donates part of the commission earned to a nonprofit you choose you forgot about buying or selling your home you can learn more about it by heading over to k.l. W. 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News with Debbie Ross the president of Tanzania John Mica foully has ordered the arrest of all those involved in the management of a ferry that capsized killing more than 130 people in a television address he spoke of negligence saying it was clear the ferry was overloaded He said the arrests had already begun present Trampas challenge the woman who's accused the Supremes Court nominee of sexual assault demanding she provide evidence Christine blahs a Ford said Brett Kavanaugh tried to rape her when they were both teenagers Mr Jobs said if the assault was as bad as she said then she or her parents were to file charges the us deputy attorney general rode Rosenstein has described the report as inaccurate that he discussed invoking a constitutional close to remove President Trump from office the New York Times citing anonymous sources also said that Mr Rosenstein had suggested secretly recording Mr Trump to expose chaos in the White House. The president of the European Council Donald Tusk has said that Britain and the e.u. Can still find a bricks it compromise that we good for both sides he rejected the British prime minister to resign May's criticism that she had been shown no respect at Thursday's summit insults Virg police in Brazil have arrested a man accused by the United States of being one of the main finances of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah or Paraguayan had issued an international arrest warrant for us said Ahmed Barak and for identity theft he was detained near the border with Paraguay and Argentina the International Criminal Court has announced that it will not investigate the violence in Gabon that followed a disputed presidential election 2 years ago the court's prosecutor said there was no evidence that acts committed by supporters of either the elected president Ali Bongo or of his rival John ping amounted to crimes against humanity has the latest b.b.c. News you're listening to the real story from the b.b.c. World Service with me ritalin this week we're asking if breaks it may have boosted the prospects of a united Ireland we're joined by Lord m.p. The chairman of the Ulster Unionist Party new nemesis and a unionist and a political commentator did Heenan is an author and academic at the University of Ulster she's a moderate nationalist and Kevin Maher a commentator on Irish and British politics who believes there will be a united Ireland Welcome back to you all earlier in the program we looked at some of the factors that may be changing the status quo but now I'd like to discuss how change might happen there is a provision in the Good Friday agreement which allows for a poll on the question of a united Ireland but it's pretty vague no Whelan is a lawyer and a columnist for The Irish Times I asked him to explain how such a vote might come about what it says is that if there is or appears to be using the cloakroom term a majority support for a change in the constitutional status of normality then the secretary of state law . Told what again is globally called a border poll effectively I think once you had a serious of either opinion polls and or collected election results which would point to a suggestion that there was a comfortable majority far issue Nitty then the secretary of state would have no option but to hold a referendum in Northern Ireland I think it would probably get to a point ultimately where you'd have a legal challenge to any resistance on his or her part to do so and that moment can just to be clear the secretary of state is a member of the u.k. Government and would then have to be parallel poll in The Republic and what would constitute a majority but a simple majority in both jurisdictions no it wouldn't require a poll in the south on the same day and all sequences and I think are important in that what you would 1st have in my view is a vote in Northern Ireland expressing an intention I wish to join a United Ireland that would have to be just a simple majority and the constitutional position is that is literally 50 percent plus one vote politically Many argue that you would you would want greater level of critical support for that but the constitutional legal position is 50 percent plus one so this would be a lengthy process and not as straightforward one I think once the vote happens once a border pool happens and if that power pole was to be in favor of United Ireland then I think the imperative would be there I think there are complexities there all of which can be overcome there are also obviously economic arrangements that would have to be negotiated between the Dublin Exchequer and the white Alec's checker and indeed in the storm and arrangements about how you would fund and support what the transitional arrangements would be a basic necessity that the u.k. Government Caridi provides and although not in for Northern Ireland I think the psychological impact of the Bracks achieved breaks it changes everything I'm a big believer in the psychological impact of political change it was Lenin once said It takes decades sometimes to bring about change but sometimes decades come in years and I think the pace of change could be such that you would have that momentum but then there would have to be a moment a pause moment a cameraman in which you frame the constitutional and institutional and economic. Grange meant that would make United aren't possible if we've learned anything from the bricks of process the need to consider those things even before the Board report on how to work out on the part of Paul is important in your view is the real impetus from the South do you have any sense that this is something that the Republic actually wants the bottom line is that there is a constitutional imperative written into our Constitution to require that government that championed the cause of a united Ireland that's the legal situation terms of popular opinion all of the opinion poll sure skepticism among the electorate in the Republic of Ireland towards uniting with Northern Ireland but my view is that that's largely because it is as of now a theoretical proposition until relatively recently the concept of a united Ireland was a Republican nationalist dream it is now in my view not only a possibility but frankly a probability because of the psychological shifts and changes that are going to flow from even already from a consideration of breaks at the Irish or a lawyer no we and Kevin mall skepticism in the south could be a serious barrier Well I think what Paul and evidence that it shows a kind of 2 to one support actually I think this is an issue that is in the marrow frankly there is people and I don't think this issue is ever going to go away until we get aboard a poll and this question once and for all but I think no makes a very good point in terms of the need as we've seen with brags that the need to have some heads of agreement some assumptions about what would happen in the event of unity in the event of a board a poll and I think that's almost the conversation that we're at today that we need to sort of look at this theoretically and look past a border post and say how would how would things change how would things be paid for what arrangements would be necessary and I think that conversation is beginning to be had I think we've moved a long way as no suggests even in the last 3 or 4 years and I think this is very much as I say an issue that's in flux and the more it's talked about on all sides by all parties the better new name a sense get this isn't potentially in the south but why would any unionists vote. To become a minority exactly they certainly wouldn't and my view you know what you know sir promised that they would have a much greater say in a southern state that be a much higher percentage of its population than they are in the u.k. But they still only be 13 to 14 percent of the population and a very very much mistrust I don't dislike minority I think that there be great reluctance to enter governing coalitions with them and also of course the big question over the and the cohesion of the community after unification what with unionism before the union have been permanently despondent so it's not a particularly inviting prospect Eunice are also subjected to dreadfully condescending remarks about how they shouldn't worry because what they do to others will not be done to them outside it's extreme extreme that double edged guide of reassurance regimen he just when you even contemplate such a prospect do you think that in a sense would be a very strong case for a unionist like yourself to make that hang on a minute guys even if you think there might be economic benefits here there's a lot to be lost in the way of cultural traditions in a way of life well of course the Rays and we're part of a very large economy people don't seem to grasp the fact that London effectively subsidizes Northern Ireland to the tune of about 14000000000 euros a year I mean we're talking vast amounts of money here but there's a whole range of other things historically people looked at what happened to the Unionist community when the Republic was formed and basically after a few years it was gone and the other thing you've got to remember is that Shin Fein suddenly becomes part of an Irish government or propping one up which could happen within the next 12 months that changed the dynamics but there's an even bigger change that nobody's talking about if you listen to President Mark rant and the Europhiles in the Commission in Brussels they are looking to take control over the economy of the European countries over foreign affairs defense immigration all of these things and if that were to come a bite the smaller countries within the European Union would effectively lose their . And say they would end up being vassals of Brussels and I think that changes the whole dynamics too because there's so much change going on in Europe and this policy that they have pursued is running the European Union until the Grant did remain in that vision of the e.u. As this overarching trans national organization is one that was rejected by Shin Fein until relatively recently they were always enthusiastic era Falls' No they weren't in need but of course you have to grasp every political opportunity and the night it's opportune to support the and to support being part of the I disagree with red I don't think wider issues of the European you know are really feeding into this discussion about a new Ireland there is and then creating conversation rather than a United Ireland about this new Ireland and a vote for a unification could begin the process of reunification but I think what is clear is it's not simple it's not straightforward there hasn't been any real strategic thinking around it and there are huge as she has to be addressed not least for example the economic impact does the Republic of Ireland actually want Northern Ireland to join them could they afford it how would they deal with people for example the Unionist community perhaps who don't recognise the state and I think as these discussions are beginning and beginning to have traction you realise that there is a shocking lack of thought or in what things might look like what preparation might be required and I think people are deliberately avoiding the difficult issues and still talking about this as though it were a dream are among Dick ideal but the practicalities have not been discussed and Kevin while there's nothing like a multi-billion pound bill to pop an idealistic bubble is there. Probably I mean we've got to be clear here that change is only going to happen via the ballot box Vajra bought a poll where certain conditions have been met when you actually just kind of pick you up on that point because she and feign is supporting the idea of a board a poll but yes d.l.p. Also a national party has one that are. Rushed poll could erupt in violence could return they could be returned to the bad old days but is that a reason to deny the validity of any ballot for change I mean we can't make assumptions about what loyalists may do all the finances down the road the fact is the Good Friday Agreement put in train at this very idea 20 years ago and of course as he's watching frame is bought into this process to begin with the Republicans by extension that the idea that they can peacefully and democratically bring about change slowly incrementally that maybe 20 years down the line it may take a few more years yet but I think the direction of travel is set and I think it will be perverse if for example in Frayne nationalist parties accrued a greater share of the vote than unionist parties and there was no border poll then as a result of that the point you know we all made 5 minutes ago if that one were to happen and there were to be a board a poll and I think it would be perverse to deny the results of that but I think the important question is who exactly is calling for a border poll and champion have said it should happen within 5 years all unionist parties opposable the u.k. As expressed the wish that it should be put off for generations so who gets to decide if we have a border poll when we have a border poll how is that the surgeon made and I think there was another also an important factor which is if we have a border poll then there cannot be another one for a 7 year period so you can't have one until you get the result that you want depending on what you're looking for so in a sense the example perhaps of the Scottish referendum is one which may really actually focus minds in Northern Ireland yes I think timing is all important so you will hear that the national parties are calling for it but not imminently they're talking about a period of 5 years some of them talking slightly longer so this is being discussed but it isn't going to happen in the very near future I think is Newton said earlier it is the foreseeable future but again that's quite a fluid idea rich m.p. This potential of a return to violence even as these ideas begin to resurface is that one that worries you Peter Robinson who's the leader of the main Unionist Party. The d.d.p. Has said I don't expect my house to burn down but I still insure it because it could happen suggesting that you shouldn't rule out the possibility of a border poll but to these kind of ideas inflame the most extremist elements at both ends of the political spectrum Well if you concentrate on the most divisive issues in the community the constitutional question that we're currently discussing that type of thing it upsets community relations what we should be doing and that's why I'm annoyed that storm it isn't functioning is concentrating on the things that we can work together on and which we can agree on like the health service the education service our economy these are the things that actually bring people together because that's more important in my opinion than having these i.q. Demick debates about what may or may not happen in the future Peter Robinson had 7 years as leader and 1st minister to do that sort of preparation of these lecturing the rest of us bite and I but I'm not conscious that he did any and apart from anything else he was a very divisive figure so as far as I'm concerned the what we should be doing now is particularly with the young people and the new generation coming up with very high aspirations is to be working together on things that we can actually deliver for those young people and stead of having arguments about things of that that are the most divisive in our community and I have to say also that I understand the psychological issues around border issues perfectly well because participating in the negotiations for the Good Friday Agreement we spent years sitting talking and listening to Marshall it's about us where I think we understand up of the most important thing which was torn out of the Belfast Agreement or the Good Friday agreement by the British government in 2006 was the core partnership leadership model that was at the very center of that process and that was designed to bring people together and that can only be brought to bite if you're actually working on solving the problems that affect everybody's lives every day did he know I think if you are a moderate nationalist and you're looking at our devolution experiment over the last 20 years we've had. Stop start David lotion and the reality is it has delivered very little Many people who expected a peace dividend it did not arrive the peace dividend planned south of the border so for example we didn't have the changes we expected from the devolved government in fact I think it's fair to say that the devolved government feel to deliver at the moment we are listening to a renewable heating inquiry I don't know if you're aware of that but it was the scandal that brought down the government and Dan Daly we're hearing about the dysfunctional nature of our political classes in the north we have a lack of capacity in the civil service we have incompetence we have nepotism avoidance of a kind about a lack of transparency and we are seeing a picture of whole scale incompetence with the government that we had so we're very disillusioned with that and even though we have no government people are beginning to say will do we really want to go back to that system that was so dysfunctional we took them to London and say that we are of absolutely no interest in fact the very last thing Trey's mayor wants is Northern Ireland back in her and train her ministers having diskette from London to Belfast she is also in hock to the pay her conference and supply agreement and she doesn't want to upset there is government agenda and must direct rule so of course then people begin to look at the alternatives because they are unhappy a new name isn't well it's absolutely normal in countries to have them call but it governments hopeless administrators other. Central government to be totally indifferent to the regions and for the regions to be indifferent to each other I can't remember the last time I thought about people in Cornwall for example but you know it's a pretty sad region and it's supposed to be rigid about you know isn't that they never think about us that what's unique about Northern Ireland well special about north is that it's like a country like Belgium when there is retain dysfunction a large portion of the population starts thinking well let's just give up on this state altogether but it is because of a signature of world law and itself that that argument occurs not because of routine problems in government but the comparison with Belgium or some some might say Bill. And with guns Well let's hope not but earlier someone medical that white 100 large was created to have a unique majority Well you might say it was an exercise in national self-determination by the British population but the purpose for Northern Ireland's existence no longer exists because you know Mr Narayana plurality are not no longer in a majority and so one of the great ironies brags that it does promise a new role for Northern Ireland a lot of terrible role or it could be a bridge between the u.k. And the e.u. It could have some kind of special status and if it was better if it had this this status then there could there perhaps the nationalist population would see a point to it. In that special status what we would like you want to all eat well of course it is because want to special status Maine it's Shin Fein and develop this concept because they wanted to separate us from the rest of the u.k. But look I say we can argue all of these things but I come back to my fundamental point if you're sitting at the dinner table tonight with your kids and you're looking at how you're going to make ends meet the debate that just taking place amongst our political class doesn't relate to that and you can count your your mother in law or a place in a care home or whatever these are the things that matter to ordinary people far more than a lot of the things we're talking about queers are very odd because it's I'm not sure that that is actually the case is it not more the key is that people don't care about the economics of constitutional issues for example when the Republic was when it was an economic basket case when its economy collapsed 10 years ago but didn't stop nationalists being nationalist these issues are a little they are technically very interesting and should be penned Dein economic issues they're never decisive in the end Well I understand in the in the context of between nationalists and Eunice but if you continue to push an agenda to people that forces them to be divided you get what we have today the whole concept of the Good Friday agreement was to create a partnership and unfortunately the British government wrecked it in 2006 when they . The very core issue that we had negotiated and which had received a huge majority in both Northern Ireland and the Republican a referendum so when I hear people talk about the 50 to 40 year vote for breaks that we must observe the will of the people I kind of laugh to myself when I see how it cavalierly they pushed aside the majority use that we received for the Good Friday agreement on this island I have to respect I laugh to myself when I hear that also because it is important and we haven't mentioned that the people of the north of out and voted to remain in the European Union we do not want to leave Kevin Mark this question of what people actually really think about where do you lie on that you clearly do want people to take this this dream much more seriously as I say I think this is inevitable I think the Good Friday agreement you know to use a proper hacking metaphor is a is a weathervane 20 years ago it blew in the direction of unionism it is changing direction I think all the evidence starts to suggest that I think really we need to be having a conversation ses Peter Robinson has pointed out and as challenging it isn't as far back as 201120121 this point that look this may happen there is not a majority of the units do not have the numbers in the medium term in the long term it is better to start a dialogue and to start to think about some of these issues and how both jurisdictions on the island of Ireland can work together more effectively better but what about ridge M.P.'s point which is in the end people are more concerned about whether they've got a care home for their elderly mother whether their schools are good whether the hospitals are functioning well find out because I mean as no pointed out what the opinion polls are when the actual electoral results start to show and assemble of all majority for Irish unity then you know the game is up in a sense for you for unionism at that point and you know let's not wait till that point occurs let's have an intelligent conversation as early as possible I totally agree with Reg about get in the executive and the assembly back up and running I think a lot of these discussions should be held and I'm not quite sure of people care so much of by getting people into care homes so for example we hear many times how much the national how. Service is valued in Northern Ireland yet statistics out today have shown that over 106000 people 106000 people in Northern Ireland are withing for treatment for more than 12 months that compares to a figure of Iraq and 7000 well Tannen half 1000 for England and Wales combined that is a shocking figure we have the worst health outcomes in the u.k. We spammed the most perhaps population in the u.k. Yet people I talk are not out on the streets saying this is not acceptable we just kind of shake our shoulders and say oh well it's been most worse and for many people peace means the absence of violence progress means the absence of violence but I think brags that has changed that whole conversation you know essential to return for a moment to the attitudes in the South do you think that there is the appetite the strength of will in a sense to go through the kind of constitutional turmoil that we were hearing about earlier that would be needed to make a change like this will have no idea because the site this is foreign to me as friends to be perfectly honest with you and I mean I don't say that the hostile fashion I have employers Tyler our friends what it is a foreign country to me in the in the absolutely Chad you I sense about term it's political culture at public attitudes are very different and what they say about what people say about their politics doesn't always turn out to be what they mean or certainly there is a there's a broad cultural assumption in this our freedom lives are and I'm certain that that is the case and yet as soon as any difficulty is mentioned people turn it seems to me very quickly to her intolerance you have to remember that their public has been a very cohesive culture immigration only because they're very recently 95 percent Catholic country they've had the world their own way for 100 years they're not used to having to make major cultural political compromises I was very taken aback earlier this year when I suggested an article in The Irish Times that perhaps some . Stormont par sharing across community protections could be considered in all our parliament it's a double majority voting but you know recall petitions and so on and the absolute absolute horror at the suggestion that the republican be tampered with in any way was I thought really revealing I think that people in the public are quite happy to consider a United Ireland as well if that's exactly the way our end is noise but better but I mean look at look at the comments from Marilee McDonnell the new president should Faine where she's pushed out that look everything's on the table including national flag national anthem symbols and symbols a the Irish Republic but that many Cleave towards very strongly and I mean there is a willingness or at least an expression of willingness to debate these issues and to hold a handout to unionism and I think Valley's that that's something that's fundamentally different than even 12 months ago Reggie n.p.t. Think that is something that's changed well 1st of all I was made clear the beginning of the program should in fear posed Arash membership of the European Union back when it started so therefore everything that they say is taken by Eunice with a pinch of salt because they were the party that justified apologist for their campaign of terror that went which was waged for their re for years and they covered up sexual abuse they covered up everything so their credibility with Eunice just know that there has been violence obviously on the loyalists are legitimate and I think that this is we're going to enter a lazy they don't covering up sexual I mean that there is no credibility in amongst any unions so I mean I'm with the government with them I have been in government with them and in fact I was a minister and I probably have more dealings with the Republic and their ministers than most others and I set up cross border bodies today was trade and tourism I'm coming to the point that Newton made I find it very interesting that when we did do business whether it was on energy like cross border like into connectors and electricity gas pipelines things like that they were very practical approach but the Republicans are very separate unit on the. No never got any sense that they weren't going to cooperate but I didn't get the sense that they really saw us as part of themselves so to wrap our head a sense I want to ask each of you if you believe then there will be a vote on the future of the island of Ireland in the near future and you can specify your timeframe. I to be involved in 10 years but it will be lost why do you think it will be lost for the sort of reasons we've discussed even in 10 years' time there just aren't the demographic numbers within the kind of timeframe that lossless I think I'm speaking about did Rina do you believe that there will be a vote and is it possible to tell what the result might be I think they'll be much pragmatism around the sez she there will be a vote but it won't happen for 2025 years and when there is a vote it will be one Kevin Maher you're the optimist Where do you stand slightly hemmed in on this question I suspect I think I think there will be a broader poll I think it will between the next 5 to 10 years I think Bragg's it will have a devastating effect on Northern Ireland's economy and will accelerate these trends it's interesting that you go for the next 5 to 10 years you don't think it will be sooner than that it's just too hard these days to be accurate with any predictions given Bragg's I think more happen is the implications for Northern Ireland its economy of Bragg's it will be felt very very quickly and that will sharpen up I think not just the issue about the Irish demand for kind of for single Irish state but the demand for people in Northern Ireland to be part of the European Union again and the quickest way of doing that is to join the Irish Irish state now Rich m.p. I imagine that you wouldn't necessarily see a vote as being inevitable that bearing in mind the impact of Bracks it and the way in which is his refocusing attention on this subject does that swayed to think they could possibly be able to say we're talking and we don't know what the impact of pressure that is going to be and fact we don't even know if there's going to be bloodshed because at the present moment none of the proposals that are on the table looked likely to be capable of being voted through the House of Commons in London so it's not entirely clear to me and even if they are. Are we don't know today what they're going to be under the outworking of them how their plans are over a number of years as extremely difficult to say so as far as I'm concerned I can't predict it all I can tell you is there is a process in the Good Friday agreement as to how a board of Paul could come about and if and when ever happens the process is there but I couldn't predict when that will be daydreaming to you want to come back well I just want to say what is quite clear from our discussion and looking at the documents is no one is prepared for a united Ireland it's still a pipeline there's absolutely no hard facts as to what it might look like what the economy might look like the culture the society and there have been no real discussions particularly amongst those who are fighting hardest for it plenty to think about there plenty to discuss it sounds like it's a conversation that if it if it's to broaden out needs to take some time thank you very much to all our guests on the real story this week Lord m.p. Regiment he did re Heenan nemesis and Kevin Marr if you'd like to listen to the program again or any other from the archive you can listen back online by searching for b.b.c. The real story and if you like this week's program make sure you never miss another edition subscribe to our podcast you can find us simply by searching for the real story in your podcast app and we'd love to hear your thoughts you can e-mail us the real story at b.b.c. Dot co dot u.k. For me with a lush are on the whole team that's the real story for this week thank you for listening. And we keep our programming. Even lower asking for your support you know this is our. Membership campaign and we will not be asking for your support until next year of May you could join us now and know you have stepped up for something that you value you can head over. To donate or give us a call at 1800. 9917 once again that phone numbers 1800. 17. 191.7. Your local public radio station and all. That. She thought and if she's. Out there. On questions about her motives.