Trump tells session to call off the hounds and says Michael Cone is out of bounds Welcome to the land of collusion and illusion on the Political Junkie. Ken Rudin House speaker Paul Ryan is on his way out but Nancy Pelosi says she's not stepping aside could she withstand a challenge from within her own party a lot of Democrats are almost assuming that they're going to win the majority if they fall short term going to be looking for somebody to blame and I wouldn't bet a lot of money on Pelosi remaining party leader under those circumstances and we remember how the Gulf of Tonkin incident led to expanded u.s. Involvement in Vietnam nobody had any suspicions about the report of an attack or the information released to the public seem to leave no room for reasonable or even on reasonable doubt so nobody questions there had been an attack it's all coming up on the Political Junkie after the news. I'm Stuart McIntosh with the b.b.c. News Hello the United States is welcomed a commitment by Zimbabwe's electoral Thora to used to release the details results of this week's elections in which President Emerson. And his new p.f. Party would it clear the victors the election loser Nelson Chamisa who heads the m.d.c. Has claimed the vote was rigged with more on the challenges facing the new president he is Fergal Keane in Harare there are big questions for Emerson and God what the president he has to show the international community in particular that he has control of the security forces because the kind of events which took place in the city which happened with soldiers attacking people they harmed massively his attempts to draw international support and to get the kind of investment the funding from the World Bank the International Monetary Fund that this country desperately needs to rescue us from the Internet from the crisis that was created by the decades of Robert Mugabe's rule of Emerson man and God What has the biggest job of all the Hollywood film producer Harvey Weinstein is attempting to have criminal charges against him dismissed his lawyers have told a judge in New York the e-mail evidence was not disclosed which they say shows he was involved in a long term relationship with one of the women he's accused of raping Paul Blake is in New York the e-mails the defense says show a long term consensual intimate relationship between Mr Weinstein and the woman alleging an assault happening now the lawyers claim that at no point in these e-mails that span both from weeks after the alleged assault to up to 4 years afterwards never wants reference an assault happening now that's in the words of the defense we haven't been able to contact the woman at the center of the claims because we don't know who she is her identity is being protected in this case now in terms of the other 2 cases the lawyers claim that those should be thrown out on technicalities. Accordion Kenya has freed a man who'd been given a 20 year jail sentence for smuggling Ivory the judge in Mombasa said the original sentence imposed on Mohammed Feisal in 2016 was unconstitutional as the evidence had been circumstantial The 28 year old woman wearing the Muslim full face veil has become the 1st in Denmark to be fined for violating a controversial law banning all face coverings in public use of tougher tar has the details of the law which came into effect on August the 1st bans all face coverings including a cop's burkas key Mosbacher lavas and even false beer it's the woman came to the police pension when a scuffle broke out between her and another woman who tried to pull her off at the top of an escalator in the shopping center in the City of her small north of Copenhagen police were called in to deal with the altercation they find in a cab wearing woman $155.00 and charged both women with a turban the piece world news from the b.b.c. The International Red Cross says more than 50 people have been killed and $150.00 injured in the latest violence in the Yemeni port city of her data in a statement the head of the i.c.r.c. In Yemen Yohannes Brewer called the disrespect for international humanitarian law civilian life and property reprehensible on Thursday the Al Thora hospital the biggest and best equipped in her day that was hit in a suspected airstrike by the Saudi led coalition fighting who theory rebels the coalition has denied any involvement in the incident. Medical sources in Gaza say Israeli troops have shot and killed a Palestinian man during a protest on the territory's border dozens of others were injured Palestinians have been protesting at the boundary fence every Friday for weeks demanding that they be allowed to return to their ancestral homelands in what is now Israel the Israelis say they have to counter a threat from militants who use the demonstrations to mount attacks the Greek Civil Protection Minister Nicolas Tosca has resigned after a devastating wildfire which killed more than 1000 people the government of the prime minister Alexis Tsipras has faced strong criticism over its handling of the disaster in a seaside resort near Athens survivors and opposition politicians have accused the authorities of reacting too slowly to the fire and doing too little to help evacuate those risk Chile's become the 1st South American country to ban the widespread commercial use of plastic bags the new legislation approved by Congress gives shops between 6 months and 2 years to adapt to a total ban is to peer a said similar action was needed across the globe it will pass at the level we want to hear from throwaway culture where everything is used and chucked away to a healthy culture of recycling there are 7 and a half 1000000000 inhabitants in the world each one of us can't continue polluting as if we are the earth b.b.c. News. Ok everybody I've got a president that I view and I don't care and you. Are going to pay anybody to be very much. The big power. Player was delivering us. Thanks for joining us and welcome to Episode 230 you know you know the Political Junkie Ken Rudin. His former campaign manager is on trial for tax evasion and bank fraud his longtime lawyer says he's lying about the Playboy model hush money and the Donald Jr meeting with a Russian lawyer and his b.f. F. Is ramping up nuclear material in North Korea so what to do within the United States I would have no problem doing a shutdown it's time we had proper border security yes folks we're back to the border wall with Mexico which has been a constant theme in President Trump's administration going back to the time when he was still a candidate of course back then things were a little different I don't want to cause a problem I don't want to cry but in the end in the end Mexico is going to pay for the well I'm just telling. Now with Mexico not budging Trump is insisting that Congress pay for it and he says he's willing to shut the government down if it doesn't happen that's the last thing Republican leaders want with an election coming up and a shutdown just as the Senate may be ready to vote on Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court that doesn't sound like smart politics Meanwhile Kavanagh this week received a pledge of support from Rand Paul the Kentucky Republican who often expresses concerns and serious questions about Trump nominees he threatens to vote no gets the White House in a tizzy and then he relents that's what happened this week with the cranky poll getting his latest 15 minutes of attention and with Senator Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski holding their fire it's hard to see any Republican voting no on Cavanaugh In fact it's easy to see a few Democrats maybe Heidi Heitkamp maybe Joe Donnelly maybe Joe Mansion voting yes the guess here is that barring something unexpected Kavanaugh gets confirmed. Just as predictable as Rand Paul expressing concerns is Donald Trump saying these words no collusion which I knew anyway no coordination no nothing it's a witch hunt that's all it is there was no collusion with Russia but now with former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohn reportedly about to tell the best gaiters that Trump knew in advance of Donald Jr's meeting with the Russians or dirt on Hillary Clinton the administration is venturing a new approach he has Rudy Giuliani on Guess where Fox and Friends I've been sitting here looking at the federal code trying to find collusion as a crime it's not collusion is not a crime everything it's been really selfish of the president to be absolutely innocent doing wrong and just in case the collusion is no crime defense doesn't work there's always the reach out to the attorney general strategy on Wednesday Trump tweeted out a plea for Jeff Sessions to quote stop this rigged witch hunt right now before it continues to stain our country any further so maybe it really isn't collusion After all no maybe that's just obstruction of justice the world is the news that Ron Dellums has died Dellums was a left wing Democratic congressman from California who ousted incumbent in 1970 and went on to serve for nearly 28 years improbably rising to chair the House Armed Services Committee he was fiercely opposed to the Vietnam War and was a strong advocate of ending apartheid in South Africa his voting record wasn't always popular and his rhetoric often led some to brand him a radical Some even called him a communist but he was respected across the aisle for his decency and fairness he died Monday at the age of 82 and that leads to this week's trivia question when Dellums 1st ran for Congress he defeated a white liberal congressman Geoffrey Cohen in the Democratic primary. Who is the most recent African-American member of the House who came to Congress by ousting a white incumbent send your answer to trivia at Khe our political junkie dot com will select a winner at random from the bunch the winner will get a fabulous vintage Political Junkie button again that's trivia at Khe our political junkie dot com We'll reveal the answer and winner of last week's trivia question later in the show so stay tuned. For the. Real This is. The. Sky This is the. Real. Story. In the field. There are about 5 months to go in the 115th Congress 5 months left in Paul Ryan's tenure as speaker of the house he became speaker in October of 2015 after far right elements of the Republican caucus forced his predecessor John Boehner at of his job Ryan hasn't had the same problems with these conservatives but he still has his hands full with them just before the House adjourned for the month of August a dozen or so of these conservatives mostly from the house freedom caucus offered a motion to impeach the deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein Why investigate a possibly corrupt president when you can impeach the guy in charge of the investigation. But the a peace bit route is likely to go nowhere Ryan himself gave it a thumbs down do I support impeachment of Rod Rosenstein No I do not I do not for a number of reasons 1st it takes it I don't I don't think we should be cavalier with this process or with this term number one number 2 I don't think that this rises the level of high crimes and misdemeanors from really high standards even wrote Stein's boss Attorney General Jeff Sessions wanted no part of it my deputy Rod Rosenstein is how they capable I have the highest confidence in him but that is hardly likely to silence the conservatives in fact just a they have to be impeachment motion was filed the founder of the Freedom caucus Jim Jordan of Ohio announced his candidacy to succeed Ryan as speaker should the Republicans keep the house or as minority leaders should the Democrats have a good day on November 6th and while conservatives are making noise on the right there's also impatience amongst the Democrats left wing Nancy Pelosi is likely to stay on as the party leader as speaker or otherwise and did oh for the party's number 2 in the House Denny holier the concern with Pelosi and her lawyer was less about ideology and more about freshness Palosi is 78 and Hoyer is 79 and some newer Democrats are hungering for younger leadership few people know more about congressional leadership battles and Jack Pitney of politics professor at Claremont McKenna College Jack it's great having you back on the program thank you very much well before you get to the leadership battle let me ask you a question about the Rosenstein impeachment which was led by Mark Meadows of North Carolina and Jim Jordan. Only 11 Republicans signed on to it later I think Steve's belief perhaps a contender for speaker said he would vote for it even though Speaker Ryan said there was no basis for it but assuming it's not going anywhere there were unlikely to get a majority vote for it in the house let alone 2 thirds in the Senate why why go through all those motions to words Donald Trump it's a way for some members of the house to curry favor with Donald Trump who is very unhappy with the Russian festa geisha and in fact has just tweeted that he thinks sessions should shut it down and in Washington d.c. These days currying favor with Donald Trump is very much an activity of interest in the Republican Party so nobody really thinks that Rosenstein of the Justice Department are really holding back documents it's just maybe just to please drop in to read and more red meat for the conservative Yeah obviously there are always tensions between the legislative and executive branches when it comes to disclosure of documents this is something that's gone on since time out of mind it doesn't come anywhere near the level of impeachable offense or even misconduct So what's really going on here is a number of members looking for a way to get Trump's attention to get on Fox News and that's really what they want they want the president's attention and they got it well the Senate Impeachment would certainly interfere with the Brett Kavanaugh good for confirmation hearings wouldn't it that's right which is why it's not really a serious matter they're not going to take it to the floor certainly it wouldn't get to the Senate and it would have all kinds of negative consequences but it makes for good theater Well Ok if the impeachment's not happy let me go to the Jim Jordan candidacy everything I read about him is that he has no shot at winning enough Republican votes to become you know the party leader So what is real goal. Attention and leverage he also craves attention and if there is a very tight margin if Republicans in fact somehow hang onto a majority in the house there is a possibility that some members of the Freedom Caucus could withhold their votes from the Republican candidate in the speakership election which would create a very interesting situation giving the freedom caucus a great deal of leverage and I think that's really what ultimately this is about in the secret ballot in the Republican conference there is no question Kevin McCarthy would win but when it goes to the formal vote some strange things could happen. I understand that could ferreted want to test your leverage or use your leverage in any kind of succession battle but Jim Jordan I mean he has those questions gnawing at him from his days of the assistant wrestling coach at Ohio State about the sexual misconduct by the team doctor that's tough to put on your resume if you try to win over votes among your fellow Republicans yet there is absolutely no way Jim Jordan is going to be the next speaker of the House but again if it's a margin of just a few votes even if he's only able to get a dozen people willing to vote for him in the formal speakership election that creates a lack of majority and potentially gives him a great deal of power the trouble is that kind of approach could lead to a Normas ill will in the House among Republicans and make his future in the house very difficult because people are going to remember that he made the party look bad what about this theory that he's getting in the race to cause Kevin McCarthy some problems and Steve believes joins the contest because he wants to put aside the squabbling between McCarthy and Jordan that's also a possibility if there is a situation in the secret ballot in the Republican conference where nobody gets a majority at that point there is some quiet talk that Scully's could get into the race at this point though it doesn't seem that that Jordan would get enough support to bring that about and all this of course is assuming the Republicans maintain the bridge already which at this point is very very much in doubt well that that leads to the Democratic side 2 years ago 63 House Democrats voted for someone other than Pelosi to lead their caucus and I I suspect that that number could be bigger this time and much bigger if the Democrats fail to win a majority that's right the history in the past half century or so in the House of Representatives is disappointing result. Often yield leadership changes 158 go back way way in history back that was yesterday. Republicans got plastered in the midterm elections and they they changed leadership ousting their longtime leader Joe Martin of best choose its and replaced him with Charlie Halleck and 6 years later after they suffered enormous losses and the 64 presidential election that's when Jerry Ford replaced how like something similar could happen on the Democratic side a lot of Democrats are almost assuming that they're going to win the majority if they fall short they're going to be looking for somebody to blame and I wouldn't bet a lot of money on Palosi remaining party leader under those circumstances you know so I mentioned the ages of the the top leaders in the House and on the Reid and the Democratic side Joe Crowley of New York is 56 and he was supposed to be the new blood of the party and yet to many on the left he was too much part of the average woman that's right and that gets to the dynamics of a leadership election ideology is is part of it but it isn't that it's you know you have multiple kinds of fisheries you have young versus old you have regional divisions gender divisions and very much like a student council election just personal popularity so these things are very difficult to to call and the dynamics could work out in a way that may seem puzzling if you just look at the ideological dimension. There was an editorial in The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday that speculated that President Trump despite all the names he calls our wouldn't mind having a speaker Nancy Pelosi to use at the for all in 2020 you buy that there's a great deal to that and one name comes immediately to my Newt Gingrich after Gingrich became speaker following the 1994 election he became the punching bag for the Clinton administration for the next 2 years and in the 1996 election a lot of Clinton's ads featured a creature called Dole Gingrich they realize that Dole was was personally well respected so they welded his dame to that of Newt Gingrich who was extremely unpopular and that approach worked in that that could work for Trump in 2020 now where as a new speaker somebody with less visibility and who triggers less visceral reaction among Republicans would be a less inviting target maybe Trump could be helped by what may be seen as Democratic overreach on impeachment the way Republicans and Newt Gingrich were in 1908 Oh absolutely if Democrats take control of the house they should very very carefully study the Republican mistakes of the Clinton years high profile of Newt Gingrich the effort to impeach Bill Clinton which whatever you think of the merits was politically bad for the Republicans and more generally the Republicans didn't do a very good job of running investigations you had people like Dan Burton running hearings and that brought the house not a great deal of credit so if the Democrats who are smart they'll be very cautious about going forward with peaceful and they will run investigations that are highly professional and highly substantive and if they do that they'll be they'll find plenty to work with but they need to do it right. The conventional wisdom 3 months out is that the Democrats win the House Jack Pitney the all knowing Jack Pitney will Nancy Pelosi become the speaker once again good question I think there is going to be some rumbling in the Democratic ranks I wouldn't bet a lot of money either way but if I add about one way or the other I think she hangs on I think a majority of the conference would side with a particularly if the Democrats take a majority they're going to be grateful for leadership in recruiting Democratic candidates and in fundraising so I'd bet a quarter I wouldn't bet the other nets mortgage payment but we bet a little more if the Democrats don't get the majority that Palosi is gone yes that's one where I'd bet the mortgage payment I'd be very confident that her tenure is leader would be very short in a case Jack Pitney is a politics professor at Claremont McKenna College he's active on Twitter you can find him Ed j. Pitney Jack it's great as always to have you on the show thank you very much. Coming up on the Political Junkie Kris Kobach made a national name for himself with his crusade against voter fraud now he's hoping to win Tuesday's primary for governor. Of Kansas comeback was in the lead 34 to 25 percent in the most recent polls he has definitely touted his relationship with the Trump and trump one state and he still seems to be a popular figure there stay tuned. The Political Junkie on Aspen Public Radio support comes from the Aspen Institute presenting its 25th annual summer celebration conversation tomorrow from 5 to 6 15 pm evening features Jamie Diamond c.e.o. And Board chairman of j.p. Morgan Chase and company tickets at Aspen show takes dot com in from Aspen Club Sports Medicine where clients receive 45 minutes of one on one time with their physical therapist to help meet their goals and get back to what they love more than Aspen Club Sports Medicine dot com Thanks for making us part of your evening Happy Friday. Welcome back I'm Ken Rudin and this is the political junkie after a mostly primary free July the contests return in force this month with a big day coming on Tuesday 4 states are holding primaries on Aug 7th Kansas Michigan Missouri and Washington and there's a special congressional election in Ohio to boot Joining us to lay out everything at stake on Tuesday is Sarah Roge or she's a new generator for ballot Pedia the great resource for all things campaign. Sarah welcome to the Political Junkie Thanks thanks for having me well of all the states holding primaries I want to start with Candice and for an obvious reason I mean there's no Senate race there but there is a high profile contest for governor Sam Brownback is gone he joined the trump an illustration earlier this year but but Kris Kobach is running and he's the guy with the crusade against what he calls illegal voting He is a national figure he is then he come back was in the lead to the next closest competitor which is Jeff Colyer 34 to 25 percent of the most recent polls so you've definitely considered the front runner in the race he's made national news for you know as reasons you stated and also just what a fierce competition this gubernatorial race has been so far this year which Kobach has done more than any other person to stop illegal immigration and immigration advisor to Donald Trump he coauthored one of the toughest immigration laws in the nation and drafted a bill to stop sanctuary cities intentness Meanwhile just call your voted against a bill that would stop illegal aliens from receiving welfare benefits and prevent Kansas employers from hiring illegal aliens and you call us part of the problem on August 7th vote to stop illegal immigration and cancer vote Chris Kobach Kansas governor is definitely shaping up to be one of the most interesting primaries to watch on Tuesday Now you mentioned Jeff call your he became governor when Sam Brownback left right yes yes so he he's receiving the crux of this campaign and actually if you look at some of the state races down ballot one of the biggest issues for all of these races in Kansas is a spending in this tax cut repeal bill that came out in 2017 under Brownback that repealed some taxes Kobach has argued that Coyer and the administration as a whole had air. Burden reducing the taxes without reducing spending sufficiently and this is come up time and again in this campaign and also a lot of the state legislative races so it's it's very dynamic between these 2 has been fierce in Kansas the choice for education is clear Kris Kobach calls more funding for education a disaster and says he wants the power to punish school but Governor Jeff whole year is a real conservative who found solutions for our schools getting dollars to the classroom with tough accountability standards all with new tax increase the choice couldn't be clearer punish schools with savage cuts or support education a stronger economy and a better future for Kansas Republican governor just call here we know I mean nationally we know Kris Kobach as this crusade against the voting he was on Trump's . Faded commission on fraudulent voting but he is equally controversial in Kansas is the nationally. You know it's hard it's hard to say at this point he has definitely cow did his relationship with the Trumps and Trump won the state and he still seems to be a popular figure there it has been a long time since the state has seen a non Brownback administration with colors ties to the Brownback administration Kovacs lack of such can possibly be a draw for those voters. No I know that Democrats never won a Senate race in Kansas the last time that happened was as you well remember here at 1932 when you were just a mere Todd top end but but Democrats do win the governorship so who's a leading Democrat does he or she have a chance in November so all the 3 major race ratings outlets Cooke's about Iowa and inside elections are giving this at least a lean are for the race but the Democrats are still putting up a fight for sure they have 5 candidates vying in the primary including Carl Brewer who seem to be the front runner he's the former mayor of Wichita you also have Laura Kelly She's a current state senator and Joshua Statius he is the former state secretary of agriculture and a current state representative So those are kind of the cream of the crop that a river risen on the Democratic side you also though have this x. Factor and his name is Greg or then and he you may remember that name from 2014 he's the guy running it's Pat Roberts right yep so he ran for Senate in 2014 and in that race he pulled 42.5 percent of the statewide vote there was not a Democrat in the race but that's still a significant percentage for an independent to pull in a state right race so he's coming into the street team contest with some leftover name recognition from that race and he could end up being a spoiler and working against whoever wins the Democratic nomination next week so you look at Kansas Yeah you typically think pretty Republican pretty red and in the state only 25 percent of registered voters are registered Democrats so if you get a up and coming Republican candidate and you also have somebody like Greg Orman in this race. The. The the odds are stacked against Democrats but you do have a few front runners who have had political names throughout the state vying for the sama nation let me let me travel east to Missouri I think we already know in advance who the nominees would be for the Senate Claire McCaskill the Democratic incumbent she's obviously going to win the Democratic primary and state attorney general Josh Hawley isn't in the Republican primary but this is clearly one of the top Senate races in the country oh definitely this is going to be a doozy from here until November every every race brings out considers this a tossup It's a trump 2016 state with a Democratic incumbent both Democrats Democrats will be fighting to keep the seat the Republicans will be fighting to flip it so McCaskill is the last democratic to win a statewide election in Missouri and that was her 2012 reelection bid some 2014 in 2016 and we didn't see any Democrats win statewide election I was in the say that the state has certainly become more Republican more conservative since 2012 right in 2016 you saw Trump when I think with over 18 percentage points over Clinton so if we still see a climate that favorable to trump this is a hard seat to defend but of course incumbents always hold that inherent incumbency advantage so looking at her and Holly we're seeing that Holly has received like you said we're expecting him to come out of Tuesday as the nominee and he did receive pretty early and fast support from present on trump your stay attorney general hopefully we need him so badly Hopefully your new senator to be Josh Paul a we need badly we saw. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in the Senate Conservatives Fund give early and quick endorsements Yes we'll see what happens there in this conservative state at least as we saw what happened 2016 is obviously going to be pressure on her from both sides regarding the Brett Kavanaugh nomination indicated which way she's leaning she's kept pretty tight lipped up until this point before the release of Cavanagh's name she had made some comments that she didn't expect Donald Trump would put up a good nominee definitely kind of toeing the party line there unlike mansion we haven't seen any indicators that he would for sure be meeting with her that's going to be an important vote we saw she ended up voting against the nomination of course such and the voters in Missouri will likely be looking to that as a keystone especially if this vote happens during grass least timeline any outlined on Wednesday saying that a vote would happen likely and hopefully according to Republicans by October 1st so that'll be on the minds of voters in Missouri whether or not they they like Cavanagh or not I know there's a Senate race in Michigan coming up as well Debbie Stabenow is seeking a 4th term as she's heavily favored to win that and I don't think that will be any real interest that much interest in the Senate race but the Michigan gubernatorial race in Michigan is her is closely watched sense of well where Rick Snyder the current governor is term limited so this rate race seems pretty fractioned you have Cali who is Snyder's current lieutenant governor Ryan Cali so he's he's running he has 100 support for this but he's been criticized for expanding Medicaid in the state under Obamacare and he's been hit on just some different things that have happened under the Snyder ministration since he is so closely associated with it. Bill shooting has been endorsed by present Donald Trump he's been endorsed by Mike Pence. But then we have this 3rd Patrick Colback who's a state senator he's now been endorsed by Senator Ted Cruz and television host Sean Hannity who has called on President Trump to reconsider his endorsement and look at Colback as a possible alternative So we'll see what happens Colbert is trying to position himself as the stirred candidate who's the outsider candidate he's talked about draining the lancing swamp so he's been trying to adopt some of that outsider rhetoric that we saw coming out of the Trump campaign in 2016 even though he doesn't have the president's endorsement now you know I think the reason I love the big state governors in these midterm elections is because as you get closer to the census the governors of these big states could play a big role in redistricting so who would tell me a little bit about the Democratic candidates so on the other side there are 3 main Democrats. We see former state senator Gretchen Whitmer who is the polling lead in in the primary and she's gained support of some of the leaderships within the Democratic Party of Michigan. There's also physician Abdulla else I need to just received an endorsement from Bernie Sanders in the past week and run your exciting news to share I just got off the phone with Senator Sanders and guess what he's coming in with us I have a great conversation with him and he was talking about when the race bullies universal health care and we're bullies and breaking the hopper choke hold on hold right here who here believes that we can actually stand up for politics when we believe in our ideals. That's why we we're really honored to have support our thanks and he's with us and then we have Sri than that are who he's claiming to be the progressive standard bearer in the race so again it's kind of the 3 way race that we're seeing in Michigan on both sides where the indoor center fractured. The money's pretty tight but we see the scum petition among different factions of each party. Debbie Stabenow is the odds on favorite to win another term in Michigan I think it's the same case with Maria Cantwell in Washington State as the 4th state holding a primary Tuesday who is. Who's leading Republican against Maria Cantwell who whole let's talk about that field so there are currently $28.00 candidates who have filed to run Ok forget about the name of. We're not going to name a mall and the thing about Washington State is it's similar to California it's the top 2 primary system so that allows all candidates to run and all voters to vote in this upcoming primary but it only moves the top 2 vote getters were guard Lissa party affiliation to the general election so similarly to what we saw with Feinstein and. Kevin day Leone in California we're not quite sure what this a look like out of Tuesday there isn't a clear Republican that we can point to and say Yep he's likely to come in 2nd to Cantwell So your guess is as good as mine for what happens there again a 28 field candidate field with the top 2 primary Oh my gosh it should be exciting to watch but it's hard to make any sort of predictions in that voting system Ok the next time I have you on the show I want you to have all 28 candidates memorized by then Ok All right I'm working on a well we go we talked about this on the show last week it is also a special election in Ohio 12 districts right outside right side of the north northern suburbs of Columbus we don't have to go into detail that much but you have a good observation a quick observation of what's going on there so we did finally get an endorsement from Governor Kay sick last week. Everybody had kind of been collectively waiting for him to go ahead and the doors tripled or so and and that did happen and Republican candidate yet the Republican Alderson. Again regardless of what the outcome here shows this this district has interrupted some environ public and since 1903 so the fact that Democrats are heavily playing here the fact that there is a chance and we are watching this race means that this is just another special election that they aren't taking for granted it's going to be hard to translate into the November midterms when you have many more seats and many more Senate seats to defend than the Democrats currently have but again the fact that we're here we're talking about this race that should be a safe Republican hold. It is very indicative of what's been happening throughout these special actions Yowza say that when you know the history of special elections that whenever the out party wins it gives great ideas a great attention on it and a lot of people says it portends x. Or y. Will x. Y. Or z. Will happen in November and you know we'll get all these think pieces after the selection happens whether or not they are meaningful and these special elections will will be some kind of indicator once we have 2020 past vision still filled and yet to be seen but it definitely helps the momentum of Democrats to have these tight special election races and convinces Democratic donors to donate to them but it also on the flip side it convinces Republican donors that there's a need to defend these type seats so we'll see what happens it's a double edged sword either way for both parties and in this election Sarah Rosen is the news editor for ballot p.d.f. It's a great resource for campaign analysis and it could be found that ballot Pedia dot org That's the stuff there to help you plan through today's primaries Sarah thanks a lot of big on the show thanks for having me can. It just so it's just it's just it's. Just so it's just after the break it's been 54 years since the Gulf of Tonkin incident that some point to was the beginning of u.s. Involvement in the Vietnam War The communists were winning the war and the Johnson administration was facing the deeply disturbing prospect we're going to have to go to war on a big scale to save itself that's coming up on the Political Junkie Ken Rudin. I am. I am. Good Friday evening to you support for Aspen Public Radio comes from Aspen Historical Society hosting its annual ice cream social tomorrow 2 to 4 pm featuring live music a performance of a briefly complete history of Aspen lawn games and ice cream info at Aspen history dot org And from the Aspen Institute presenting its 25th annual summer celebration conversation tomorrow from 5 to 615 evening features Jamie Diamond c.e.o. And Board chairman of j.p. Morgan Chase and company tickets at Aspen show takes dot com You're listening to the Political Junkie on Aspen Public Radio fresh air coming up at 7 Thanks for listening. You're listening to Ken Rudin's Political Junkie Ken Rudin in Washington it's time to reveal the answer and winner of last week's trivia question which was who was the last Virginian to serve as governor member of the u.s. Senate and a member of the house the answer George Allen the original Republican want to special House race and i.q. 91 was elected governor in 190382000 he defeated incumbent Democrat Chuck Robb for the Senate and the randomly selected winner is David Cole star of Seattle Washington David wins the coveted political junkie button. And don't forget we still have a Scuttle Button puzzle out there waiting to be solved you can find that as well as our political blogs trivia questions and the Political Junkie store all on our website Ok our political junkie dot com I am. The Bueller Bueller Bueller perhaps a. Few a. Few a. Few. Weeks. It's time for this week in political history. The news was frightening alarming disturbing my fellow Americans a recession I am commander in chief. It is my duty to the American people. To risk for serious that remunerative hostile actions. Against United States ships on the high seas in the Gulf of Tonkin have today it required me a lot of the military forces of the United States to take action and replied President Lyndon Johnson went before the nation to tell us about attacks on u.s. Destroyers somewhere with the coast of North Vietnam by North Vietnamese p.t. Boats on August 2nd and again on August 4th in 196454 years ago this week it all sounded ominous and a larger sense a little new act of aggression a aimed directly at our own forces 11 against brings home to all of us in the United States a one part. Of the struggle for peace and security and Southeast Asian male aggression by Tara against the peaceful villagers of South Vietnam. Has now been joined by open aggression on the high seas a a against the United States of America a a determination of all Americans elect to carry out our commitment to the people and to the government of South Vietnam a loving redoubled 'd by this outrage the Gulf of Tonkin incident as this was called is widely considered to be the event that got the u.s. Into the Vietnam War Following Johnson's televised address Congress rushed through a resolution within days a support quote for all necessary action to protect our armed forces. The vote in the house was 416 to 0 in the Senate it was 88 to 2 the war was on but as time went by more and more questions were raised about whether the incidents of the talking Gulf really happened the way the president described maybe it was just the 1st attack not the 2nd maybe neither happened to the government lying us into war and when Mo East has written what has been described as the most thorough account of what happened history professor at Clemson University Molise is the author of Tonkin Gulf and the escalation of the Vietnam War Professor I'm always welcome to the Political Junkie thank you for having me the charge that a president law I do get the us into a war it didn't start with l.b.j. And it certainly did not end with him the charge was level that f.d.r. Prior to World War 2 George w. Bush with Iraq among others was what the government and the president what they told us of what happened back in August of 164 was that a lie you have to break it down into very fine detail I am pretty sure that President Johnson believed at the moment he went on t.v. That there actually been an attack I think he figured out within days that there probably had not been one and he then covered that up and went on pretending to believe that there had actually been an attack. And there was also dishonesty about the issue of provocation there'd been a genuine incident between an American ship and 3 North Vietnamese p.t. Boats a couple of days before and on that one the battle had been perfectly genuine but the u.s. Government was somewhat dishonest about pretending there had been less provocation to the North Vietnamese than there actually had been so there are a lot of separate questions where you have to deal centrally a question of time is this a law is this a lie is this a lot well what to the best of your knowledge and research actually did happen on the night of August 4th I am confident that there was nobody but Americans anywhere near the 2 American destroyers involved the mattocks and the Turner Joy and August 4th was the day that Lyndon Johnson went before the nation Yeah that was the one that prompted the speech from which he played an excerpt and if I had to guess I would say it probably started with seagulls I think they picked up seagulls on their radar they called for air support and I've actually spoken with a pilot who told me he believed that his plane dipping down low looking for p.t. Boats and passing through the beams of the radar from the destroyers was one of the things that the destroyers was thinking was a p.t. Boat you open fire your 1st shots hit the water and lift a great big splashes up out of the water and the droplets of water in the air from the splashes of your 1st shots make a big beautiful clear image on your radar and then you can continue firing as the shell splashes from your own previous shots there are a lot of things that went into it it's certainly possible these were communists eagles all right in as much as all the land on both sides the Gulf of Tonkin was communist yes they would have to have been communists Eagles and what was the public's response to Johnson the dress very supportive his public opinion ratings went way up he would have won reelection in the press. Dench election coming up a couple months later anyway but I think this gave him a wider margin and how much of a debate was there in Congress over this I know that only 2 in the Senate voted against the resolution none in the house now they're all paid lawmakers who think the president is not being forthright did no one feel that way about Johnson nobody had any suspicions about the report of an attack for the information released to the public seem to leave no room for reasonable or even on reasonable doubt so nobody question 3rd had been an attack to the extent there was a debate in Congress. It was over the question of should we be giving the president a blank check to go to war in Vietnam over this rather minor incident and there were some doubts about that although the Johnson administration was presenting a pretty convincing impression that it wasn't actually planning on cashing the blank check the Congress could vote this resolution and the United States would not then go to war on the basis the resolution and even people who were not happy about the idea of going to war could often be persuaded to vote for the resolution on that basis well history books tell us that resolution is what got America into Viet Nam How do you see it we were already in Vietnam Americans had been in combat in Vietnam for years on a small scale and the Communists were winning the war and the Johnson administration was facing the deeply disturbing prospect small scale combat operations by Americans the sort of stuff you can keep fairly well hidden and pretend we're only there is advisors these are not going to hack it we're going to have to go to war on a big scale to save South Vietnam this was what was going on at the time of the talking Gulf incidents but we had been at war for years there was a rule that said when the Us Air Force pilot goes up in a plane to drop bombs on the communists there has to be a Vietnamese in the copilot seat so he can pretend the American is just there as an advisor training the Vietnamese at and they couldn't always come up with an actual Get means pilot trainee to stick in the copilot seat and they sometimes had to simply grab get the means who had no idea what those dials and switches were and no ambition to learn but as long as there was a Vietnamese in the copilot seat you could pretend the American was just there for training purposes and not for what he was actually there for which was drop bombs on the communists so when whenever we talked I mean whatever the books tell us. About those advisers that we had of Vietnam during the latter days of the Eisenhower and the Kennedy administration those advisors were far more than advisors Eisenhower's advisors were actually advisers they stayed actually advisors for almost a year in the Kennedy administration and it was a ballot a year into the Kennedy administration that well some of them were still advisors but about a year into the Kennedy administration about the beginning of 1902 some of them were there as actual operational personnel doing the job themselves not just teaching to get me how to do it you mentioned earlier that Johnson probably would have won the election against Barry Goldwater regardless of the Tonkin Gulf incident and I agree with you on that but how much of this do you think had to do with domestic politics and domestic concerns on Johnson's part I can't see it as domestic politics and Busta concerns at all I think it was a foreign policy issue and the domestic espec was simply how domestic politics influences foreign policy he needed to get the Congress to pass a resolution and that was how politics the pay for the Congress was going to impinge on the policy he was delaying escalation of the war to get through the election he was running for election as a peace candidate and the White House had actually asked the CIA can we afford to wait until after the election to start large scale combat operations by American forces are we losing the war fast enough that by the time the election is over it will be too late to do anything to rescue the situation and the answer from the CIA came back you have got time but you don't have much margin for error. You don't have much more delaying time available to you than to after the election when it questions about what really happened begin to service at least publicly publicly I think the question were starting to surface a little bit and maybe 66 or 67 by 68 there were enough questions if the Secretary of Defense McNamara was willing to really bend the rules on declassifying classified information in an effort to shore up the case for there really having been an attack on August 4th and I think the National Security Agency must have been absolutely enraged at McNamara's willingness to declassify n.s.a. Information to use it as evidence that there'd really been an attack on August 4th in 68 did the Johnson administration or any subsequent president did anybody own up to the fact that they may not have the story straight in 64 I'm not aware of a president who has done that Johnson is the only one sort of whose business it would have been and I don't believe he ever acknowledged that although he acknowledged it in private within weeks after talking Gulf incident he was willing to say in private to high level people that he very much doubted he had a way with words quote hell those dumb stupid sailors were just shooting at Flying Fish unquote So tell me the bottom line the Gulf of Tonkin wasn't a lie and a deception was it bad intelligence with the communists ego I think on the central issue that you have to pick out if you're going to pick one item was there an attack on the night of August 4th I think it was an honest mistake at the time when Johnson went on the air I've talked with about 20 guys who were in the middle of the Gulf of Tonkin that night. And I think most of them believed at the time it was going on that a real attack was occurring. On I think I know a good deal about the information flow in Washington and as far as I can tell what Johnson had been told was the evidence is pretty solid we're confident there was really an attack although the question did come up very definitely in Washington in between the time of the actual incident or the time Johnson went on the air they were asking themselves Is there adequate evidence and as far as I can tell there was an honest consensus in those hours coming down to yes the evidence is solid it really happened and when most recent history professor at Clemson University and author of Tonkin Gulf and the escalation of the Vietnam War Professor Mohi thank you so much for being on the program thank you it was 54 years ago this week on August 4th 1904 when President Johnson went before the nation to talk about an attack by North Vietnamese p.t. Boats on u.s. Destroyers in the Gulf of Tonkin within days Congress voted to give the president all necessary action to protect American armed forces it was in many minds the opening shot of the Us involvement in Vietnam. If you're listening to this week in political history on the Political Junkie. Yeah that's it for this week's show be sure to check out our Web site for much more political content and to subscribe to our weekly newsletter it's all at k. Our political junkie dot com if you've got comments questions or complaints send an e-mail to Ken and k. Our political junkie dot com You can also tweet us at Ken Rudin and add Ken Rudin junkie or fall the show on Facebook and you can follow my button of the day on Instagram at the Political Junkie political junkie is distributed by p.r. X. The Public Radio Exchange the show is produced by Devin maverick robins and Douglas spell is our coordinating producer and engineer Ken Rudin thanks for listening see you next week. This is Aspen Public Radio. Broadcasting on. From w.h.y. Y. In Philadelphia this is Fresh Air I'm David Bianculli in for Terry Gross You know why God made snakes before he made lawyers he needed the practice Better Call Saul the Breaking Bad spinoff on AMC begin season 4 on Monday it's a prequel that explains how Saul Goodman became a sleazy criminal lawyer and helm Ermine trout became a hit man today we'll talk with the show's star Bob Odenkirk and we'll also hear from John Carlo Esposito who plays drug kingpin Gus Fring Peter Gold the show's co-creator and Co showrunner and Jonathan Banks who plays Mike who was a cop before he was a fixer Banks says he's played a lot of cops in his career because I'm not very pretty so I can't play on me they're going to beat a bit of a cop that's coming up on fresh air. First the news. Live from n.p.r. News in Washington I'm Jenny Herbst momenta for its longtime tax preparer took the stand today in the former Trump campaign chairman's tax and bank fraud trial as N.P.R.'s Myles parks reports the account says he was kept in the dark about bank accounts man afford had overseas Philip and if he did Paul Man affords taxes for well over a day.