Transcripts For GBN Vote 20240704

For Prime Minister rishi sunak. Just one defeat tonight would mean the government has clocked up more by election defeats in a single parliament than any government since the 1960s. Well, lets begin with wellingborough. The seat now vacant after peter bone was found by parliament to have subjected a staff member to bullying and Sexual Misconduct. He, of course, has denied the allegations and his partner Helen Harrison is running to replace him as the conservatives hope to hold after winning with a majority of over 18,000 at the last election in 2019. Well, lets get more detail now with our east Midlands Reporter , will our east Midlands Reporter, will hollis. Will, whats the mood on the ground. 7 the ground . Yes. Well, were here just down the road, actually still inside northamptonshire shire, the county thats a part of where wellingborough is. But were just down the road in kettering. Thats because theyve got this massive Leisure Centre and this is where all the sorts of counts from over the past years take place, including when were inside of the european union. The accounts for the local area, for the european union. And you can see right now down bottom, verification down at the bottom, verification has the last has been going on for the last hour or so. When those ballot boxes start coming in at around 10 00, we havent got to the count stage yet. Now, wellingborough has taken some really strong headlines in the build up to this by election, and there are a few reasons why. Of course, there is the background to ousted mp peter bone being kicked out of the party after those allegations for bullying and Sexual Misconduct were made by a staffer. Now those were investigated , edited and they investigated, edited and they were found to be true in those investigations. Of course, peter bone, the former mp whod been here since 2005, he said that he was denying those and its interesting because the current conservative candidate, Helen Harrison, is now actually his partner. And what we might see tonight is peter bone coming in support of Helen Harrison here at the council. That would be quite an interesting thing to watch out for. Now. This is one that labour have targeted harder in this hard in this period in the build up to it, 18,500 votes is the majority that the conservatives have. But we know that labour can topple that. We only need to think back a few months ago to what happened in mid bedfordshire is a much bigger majority. It was about 24,000 votes that period. And 24,000 votes in that period. And i think the final reason that theres been a lot of attention on this is the reform party. Theres been a lot of conversation around reform and if can split that if they can split that conservative vote, particularly at a time when the conservatives arent so in the arent doing so well in the polls against labour, what we saw in 2019, the then brexit party stepped back from a lot of seats, including this one in wellingborough. But now do they have the strength to take it in a full general election . I think what tonight here with what happens tonight here with ben and reform is going to ben habib and reform is going to be really telling for the future. Tom. We havent future. Tom. Now, we havent seen the count start officially yet today. But what we do know is declaration will come in at around 4 00. So weve got about 4 or 5 hours till well see a result here in the wellingborough by election as well. Will. Thanks very much for bringing us that live count for the wellingborough by election live in kettering. And i have to say will i know that sports hall well , that was the first area i well, that was the first area i went to a general election count, not a general election. A European Election count. I helped count the votes back in 2014 there, but well be back with you throughout the programme. Cross to programme. Lets cross to kingswood by election this kingswood by election now. This was triggered after Chris Skidmore, former tory skidmore, a former tory minister, quit parliament dramatically in a protest at the governments green policy. Or governments green policy. Or what he saw was a less than green policy. The tory majority is 11,220, with skidmore having held the position as an mp. There since 2010. Lets cross to Theo Chikomba, our National Reporter whos in thornbury for the count. And theo, you have , the count. And theo, you have, uh, you have a guest. If we do indeed. If we do indeed. Well, we are as you rightly say, we are in thornbury. Just a couple of miles away from kingswood. But of course, as you kingswood. But of course, as you mentioned, Chris Skidmore was in that position as an mp since 2010. But he left his role due to in protest, 2010. But he left his role due to in protest , actually, for the to in protest, actually, for the green policy that the government is putting forward, particularly when it comes to licensing for oil and gas in the north sea. But i am kindly joined by luke hall, whos been campaigning over the last couple of weeks alongside sam bromley. Over the last couple of weeks alongside sam bromley. Thank you alongside sam bromley. Thank you so much for your this so much for your time this morning. First question is, do you think youll win . Look, its far too well, look, its far too early to make a prediction on that. Weve just finished the verification stage here. We havent any havent started counting any votes what i can say is votes yet, but what i can say is that we fought a really positive campaign. We picked an excellent candidate sam and candidate in sam bromley and weve been speaking to weve been out speaking to people the people right across the constituency over the last 4 or 5 weeks. We fought a Campaign Based green based on protecting green spaces, keeping parking spaces, keeping car Parking Charges free and having a best local candidate for the constituency. So its too early constituency. So its too early to tell the results, but its a Great Campaign that weve run and im proud of it. Been out as gb news weve been out as gb news speaking to people in that area. Um, something um, cost of living is something theyve highlighted. Is that theyve highlighted. Is that a concern . Concern . Um, absolutely. The best thing that we can do to support people with the cost of living is to bring down the level of inflation. And over the last 12 months, weve seen inflation fall from at its peak, fall from 11. 1 at its peak, down 4 today. So were down to 4 today. So were making a lot of progress in that area. Were starting to see area. Were starting to see Mortgage Rates come down. Were starting wages rising. Mortgage rates come down. Were star1crucially, wages rising. Mortgage rates come down. Were star1crucially, werees rising. Mortgage rates come down. Were star1crucially, were alsoing. And crucially, were also starting to cut too. And starting to cut taxes too. And with come later this with more to come later this yeah with more to come later this year. Course, thats an year. So of course, thats an issue thats been raised. But actually have been actually people have been talking a lot more about some of these issues that affect these local issues that affect people kingswood about the people in kingswood about the plans to build on green people in kingswood about the plans twhen d on green people in kingswood about the plans twhen d could] green people in kingswood about the plans twhen d could] gree been spaces when they could have been prioritised on brownfield sites about local plans to about the local plans to introduce Parking Charges , introduce car Parking Charges, and the best local and about who the best local candidate is to be the next mp in kingswood. Theres in kingswood. So theres been a lot issues discussed, but lot of issues discussed, but its positive campaign. Its been a positive campaign. Im proud of what weve done and im proud of what weve done and im hoping a result in im hoping for a good result in recent years. Im hoping for a good result in rec in the community, and i hope people turned out responded people turned out and responded to positive way. Hes to that in a positive way. Hes a great candidate. We ran a Good Campaign. Im hoping Good Campaign. Im hoping for a good result. Of course, were not that far away been away from kingswood. Youve been here since 2015. Do you feel safe here . Look, i was elected in well, look, i was elected in 2015 with a slim majority and every single day i fought for every single day i fought for every vote in my seat. Every single vote in my seat. Im a man lived here im a local man whos lived here all of my and fought all of my life. And fought passionately get the for passionately to get the best for my constituents, ill my constituents, and ill continue do every single continue to do that every single day. In terms this result. Day. In terms of this result. Look, its still really early. We havent actually started the count im not going count yet, so im not going to make what count yet, so im not going to m might what count yet, so im not going to m might be. What count yet, so im not going to mmight be. But what count yet, so im not going to mmight be. But look, what count yet, so im not going to mmight be. But look, we what count yet, so im not going to mmight be. But look, we picked it might be. But look, we picked a great candidate. We fought a Good Campaign fingers Good Campaign and fingers crossed a good result. Crossed for a good result. Local. You so much for local. Thank you so much for your course your time. Well, of course accounting beginning accounting will be beginning very the pace is very shortly, but the pace is picking up here and well bring you the latest as we get it. Well, theo, thank you very much. And what an interesting fact to learn. 37 turnout there in kingswood. Well, im delighted to introduce my studio guests. Now ill be with these gentlemen up until 3 am. For the first half of the programme. Former labour mp Stephen Pound joins us and the professor of politics at the university of kent, matt goodwin, is with us too. Uh, matt , kent, matt goodwin, is with us too. Uh, matt, were going to start with you. Youre a pollster . Yeah um, what do you think this 37 turnout at in kingswood mean . How does that relate to other by elections . Well , firstly, dont read um, well, firstly, dont read too much into turnout. We dont know is turning know ultimately who is turning out the reform out to vote. Is it the reform party voters getting energised, wanting give the wanting to give the conservatives kicking . Is it conservatives a kicking . Is it the conservative voters staying at it a sort of at home . Is it a sort of resurgent insurgent labour vote . You know, lets wait and see. I think we always read a bit too much into turnout. Having said that, you know, we know whats at here, right . This is at stake here, right . This is rishi sunaks ship. Rishi sunaks press ship. This is the in essence, this is the latest in premiership. Latest test in that premiership. Hes only won by election hes only won one by election since Prime Minister. Hes only won one by election since of Prime Minister. Hes only won one by election since of course, Prime Minister. Hes only won one by election since of course, was� ne minister. Hes only won one by election since of course, was boris nister. That, of course, was Boris Johnsons the johnsons old seat. Um, the National Polls this week. Not looking good at all. Conservatives down to 24 of the vote nationally. Um, conservatives down to 24 of the vote nationally. Um, this is beginning to look like its make or break time for rishi sunak. You know, and i think that this is going to be a very difficult evening if the polls are correct. No. Really interesting stuff. Stephen , uh, we have very Stephen Pound, uh, we have very little to go on at this stage, but we do that turnout but we do know that turnout figure. I say again, 37. 1. But middle of the pack. Middle of the pack. I think thats actually quite respectable under the circumstances. But matts absolutely correct. Youve got to down disaggregate to drill down and disaggregate and find. But for me, the two emotions that struck me most strongly two strongly about these two byelections, and ive certainly been more than the other, been to one more than the other, is peter bowens is firstly, peter bowens activities as activities and his behaviour as the former the conservative former conservative added further to conservative mp added further to the disrepute that parliament is held in. And when i see that what Chris Skidmore did in kingswood, hes cost the council cost the government £250,000 for an utterly unnecessary by election in the seat which will not exist in nine months time and could he not just have sat on his hands for nine months and saved us a quarter of £1 million . I think with these two things, the number of people i spoke to rushden when i was spoke to in rushden when i was up week and it was up there last week and it was almost a sort of plague on all your they were very, almost a sort of plague on all your angry. They were very, almost a sort of plague on all your angry. I they were very, almost a sort of plague on all your angry. I thinkwere very, almost a sort of plague on all your angry. I think labour ry, almost a sort of plague on all your angry. I think labour can very angry. I think labour can be confident, certainly if kingswood. Roger who kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew well indeed, dont kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew he well indeed, dont kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew he won l indeed, dont kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew he won the deed, dont kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew he won the seat dont kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew he won the seat in nt kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew he won the seat in 92 and forget he won the seat in 92 and thats before, you know, before the and the blair landslide. Yeah. And wellingborough i mean i remember Paul Stinchcombe but but kingswood right up Paul Stinchcombe but but kings2010. Right up until 2010. So to extent did so to some extent it did switch conservatives switch when the conservatives got think if labour got in. Do you think if labour win tonight thats a bit of an indication then of where the country going general yet country is going in general yet again you put your finger on it, the key thing about kingswood is its suburb of a big city. There are a huge number of commuter suburbs, of big cities all around leeds, manchester, sheffield, around all around leeds, manchester, shecountry. Around all around leeds, manchester, shecountry. Labour around all around leeds, manchester, shecountry. Labour ar win the country. If labour can win there very, very there then that is very, very much. Used to call it a much. We used to call it a bellwether seat because it used to switch backwards and forwards to switch backwards and forwards to but think to certain amount. But i think tonight know, the bell with tonight you know, the bell with the ringing the the tories wont be ringing the bells. Ringing their bells. Theyll be ringing their hands their hands. Bells. Theyll be ringing their hands matt their hands. Bells. Theyll be ringing their hands matt goodwin,ds. Bells. Theyll be ringing their hands matt goodwin, this is an well matt goodwin, this is an interesting night because there well matt goodwin, this is an intemoreg night because there well matt goodwin, this is an inte more. Theres3ecause there well matt goodwin, this is an intemore. Theres morese there well matt goodwin, this is an intemore. Theres more to there well matt goodwin, this is an intemore. Theres more to this; well matt goodwin, this is an intenjust theres more to this; well matt goodwin, this is an intenjust these s more to thise well matt goodwin, this is an intenjust these two ore to this; well matt goodwin, this is an intenjust these two elections. ; than just these two elections. There are always implications from saw after from by elections. We saw after the by election, the the uxbridge by election, the prime out a Prime Minister come out with a raft policy changes, rowing raft of policy changes, rowing back on zero off the back of back on net zero off the back of that what could we that one vote. What could we see, perhaps as a political implication from results tonight . My gut 7 my gut instinct is were going to see a lot more desperation in number 10. I think theres going to be a real sense after tonight if the polls are right and the conservatives are right and the conservatives are as badly as the are doing as badly as the National Polling would suggest, and on the up and the and reform is on the up and the labour leads are pretty solid. Um, think theres um, look, i think theres going to a sense of desperation. To be a sense of desperation. How they turn this how are they going to turn this ship before the looming ship around before the looming general election . Because, look, i people in number 10 i speak to people in number 10 like know, the same like you. You know, the same stuff me. But heres what stuff as me. But heres what theyre thinking we theyre thinking about. We havent stopped the small boats. Theyre thinking about. We havengotopped the small boats. Theyre thinking about. We havengot anotherie small boats. Theyre thinking about. We havengot anotherie smehot oats. Weve got another long, hot summer weve just gone summer coming. Weve just gone into got some into recession. Weve got some really gdp and gdp per head really grim gdp and gdp per head numbers. Weve got no real numbers. Weve got no Real Progress on the nhs yet that we can point to. Weve got Public Services under strain and weve got a divided , restless got a divided, restless parliamentary party. I mean, if youre looking at this from the perspective of rishi sunak, you know, doesnt really look know, this doesnt really look good remember what good at all. And remember what the pitch was for sunak the starting pitch was for sunak , you know, put the adults back in the adults back in charge, get the adults back in charge, get the adults back in the room. So far, in the in the room. So far, sunak actually has only really been an election loser for the conservative cause. And i was looking the polling data looking at the polling data before on you. Now, the before coming on you. Now, the conservative party is conservative party today is weaker than it was when rishi sunak became leader and Prime Minister on almost every metric, his are down, partys his ratings are down, partys ratings are down. The National Average is down. Theyre losing by elections. Theyve got local elections in the springtime that you know about. So i think you put these things together. Put all these things together. The implication is the implication i think, is going growing of going to be a growing sense of desperation. And when that happens, mps turn in happens, of course, mps turn in on they on on themselves. They focus on their seats. Dont their own seats. They dont focus the big national. Focus on the big national. The start of this week, a lot of conservatives were saying, whisper have labour taken of conservatives were saying, whisjeye have labour taken of conservatives were saying, whisjeye off ave labour taken of conservatives were saying, whisjeye off the labour taken of conservatives were saying, whisjeye off the labo oftaken of conservatives were saying, whisjeye off the labo of the n their eye off the ball of the wheels . Come off the wagon. We saw billion u turn from saw the £28 billion u turn from keir last week. And then keir starmer last week. And then over the weekend , the over the weekend, the most extraordinary , uh, shot in the extraordinary, uh, shot in the foot that we saw over the process of candidate selection, something that should really have been nailed down for a future by election, a by election in two weeks time. Um, there was almost a sign there that hang on, are the wheels coming off the labour machine . But then, of course, we got the news about the Economy Today that probably turned that back. Is today that probably turned that back. Is there any, however narrow path for the conservatives to capitalise upon the sort of issues we saw at the start of this week . Well, as the old saying goes, opposition parties dont win elections. Governments lose them. And in some it them. And in some sense it doesnt really matter what happens the labour side happens on the labour party side of the of things, because the conservatives so unpopular. Conservatives are so unpopular. I there are two pieces of i mean, there are two pieces of news week. One was news this week. One was economic, disaster economic, obviously disaster numbers sunak. Economic, obviously disaster numbers sunak. The numbers for rishi sunak. The other was about the small boats and people picked up on and few people picked up on this. Just of people who this. Just 1. 3 of people who have come to britain on the small boats have been removed from the country. Now, why does that matter . Well, that matters because one because that is the number one issue conservative voters. Issue for conservative voters. And also, for tom, reform party voters. When you to them voters. When you say to them what be the top priority, what should be the top priority, they all say, stop the boats now, labour voters, of course, dont but for dont say that. But for conservatives reformers, conservatives and reformers, they when look at they do so when you look at rishi five point pledge rishi sunaks five point pledge and we saw him come back to this at news Peoples Forum in at the gb news Peoples Forum in darlington week darlington earlier this week with voters, you with the undecided voters, you go through of those, you go through each of those, you know, the exception maybe know, with the exception maybe of inflation. Hes failing on every every single one. Growth isnt coming back. Debt isnt really falling. The nhs isnt really falling. The nhs isnt really improving. The small boats being stopped. So boats arent being stopped. So im looking at him now and im just looking at him now and thinking, you know what is his pitch going to to the country pitch going to be to the country at the election . Because its not a very not going to be a very convincing one at this rate. Its starting look and its starting to look like this election that like this general election that we are told to expect in the second half of this year as well. It might be its possible that it kicked into the that it gets kicked into the first of 2025. Thats the first month of 2025. Thats the last possible month it could be held. Well , weve been there well, weve been there before. I mean, major did before. I mean, john major did this 1992. He until, you this in 1992. He took until, you know, the last minute of the last hour, the last day. But ill something ill just Say Something that actually me a great ill just Say Something that actua at me a great ill just Say Something that actua at 12 00 me a great ill just Say Something that actua at 12 00 tomorrow,aat ill just Say Something that actua at 12 00 tomorrow, lit ill just Say Something that actua at 12 00 tomorrow, i will deal. At 12 00 tomorrow, i will be in stretford, in manchester at lloyds his at tony lloyds funeral. His funeral lloyd was one funeral mass. Tony lloyd was one of the most decent, principled and honest mps ever met. And honest mps ive ever met. I worked in northern and honest mps ive ever met. I worked for in northern and honest mps ive ever met. I worked for many,in northern and honest mps ive ever met. I worked for many, manythern and honest mps ive ever met. I worked for many, many years. Ireland for many, many years. His legacy rochdale is being his legacy in rochdale is being trashed by whats going on. We cant about the rochdale cant talk about the rochdale by election. Obviously at the present , it me present time, but it fills me with sadness that when i see whats happening and to a whats happening there and to a certain , whats happening whats happening there and to a ce these , whats happening whats happening there and to a ce these two. Its happening in these other two. Do you of it, as a what do you make of it, as a former labour mp, that on the ballot there are two former labour disowned labour mps and one disowned labour mps and one disowned labour candidate. Its just an extraordinary situation. Believe. I mean, matt can correct me. I dont think its ever happened before. I mean, weve had situations in america where people have died and still been elected know, and weve elected and, you know, and weve actually situation actually had a situation in this country somebody died. Country where somebody has died. And south staffordshire, i and in south staffordshire, i seem about years seem to remember about ten years ago, they had to rerun the ago, and they had to rerun the whole election. But ive never known this. Known anything like this. And obviously well, we cant obviously we got well, we cant actually the actually enumerate the candidates in rochdale for obvious you know, candidates in rochdale for obv news you know, candidates in rochdale for obv news has you know, candidates in rochdale for obv news has some you know, candidates in rochdale for obv news has some skin] know, candidates in rochdale for obv news has some skin innow, candidates in rochdale for obv news has some skin in the. Game. Well, we will be talking much more about the wider implications throughout the night because an night because it is an interesting night the interesting night for the conservative sure. Conservative party, for sure. And joining me now, will be and joining me now, who will be watching developments very closely, the sitting closely, is the sitting conservative member of parliament, davies , the parliament, Philip Davies, the conservative shipley. Of conservative mp for shipley. Of course, lots and lots of course, now lots and lots of talk about by election defeats since 2019, but is there is there any hope . Phil that the tories can hold on tonight. Tories can hold on tonight. I wouldnt have thought so, tom. I think itd be an absolute miracle if they did. I think i think that ship sailed quite a long time ago , to be perfectly long time ago, to be perfectly honest, and why do you think thatis . What is it most about these seats . Weve spoken before about the local factors here, a general antipathy attitude from many constituents. Or is it that do you think National Issues that will be coming to the fore here . Oh, well , look, by elections, oh, well, look, by elections, all sorts of things, uh, come to the fore in by elections. But look, weve been weve been getting hammered in by elections , uh, for the majority of this parliament. I mean, you know, we lost , uh, at 24,000 majority in lost, uh, at 24,000 majority in tiverton and honiton. We lost tiverton and honiton. We lost a 23,000 majority in north shropshire. Uh, they were back shropshire. Uh, they were back in, you know, 2021, 22. You know, this is this has just been the trend throughout this parliament and people are protesting and the thing is that the governments got to do is to is not to dismiss those protests. Uh, theyve got to listen to them and listen to why people are unhappy and people are are so unhappy and people are unhappy a range of unhappy for a whole range of reasons. Um, and matt there, as articulated quite a few of them. Obviously, the issue of immigration is one that we need to sort out. And im, im pretty sure were certainly on the right track on legal immigration. Rishi sunak acts introduced changes to the rules to make sure that the number of people who are allowed into the country has down. We also country has come down. We also need sort out the illegal need to sort out the illegal immigration as well. We all we all know that, um, and so weve got to listen what people are got to listen to what people are saying, why people are got to listen to what people are sajunhappy why people are got to listen to what people are sajunhappy and why people are got to listen to what people are sajunhappy and addresstle are got to listen to what people are sajunhappy and address them. E got to listen to what people are sajunhappy and address them. But so unhappy and address them. But look end of the day, the look at the end of the day, the next election is, you next general election is, you know, it was bill know, i think it was bill clinton who said elections are a referendum on the future. Um, and you know, if youre and if you know, if youre unhappy about the state of the economy, i think economy, which i am, and i think im, nigel farage on gb im, i heard nigel farage on gb news saying, actually, the bank of england to blame of england was more to blame than government for the than the government for the economic but, you know, economic figures. But, you know, if youre unhappy about if you if youre unhappy about the the economy, the the state of the economy, the question is who do you trust to deal it . Know, do you deal with it . You know, do you trust a labour party that believes in taxing more and spending know, do you spending more . You know, do you believe in spending your way out of and your way to of debt and taxing your way to growth . Who you trust to growth . Uh, who do you trust to sort immigration sort out the immigration problem . A conservative problem . Uh a conservative government do government is trying to do something about it, or a Labour Government that doesnt even care accept care about it. So i dont accept that, know, just because that, you know, just because people unhappy the people are really unhappy at the moment. And and i know moment. And they are. And i know that from constituency, that from my own constituency, of theyre but of course theyre unhappy. But i dont it therefore follows dont think it therefore follows that a general election. That its a general election. People will, uh, not weigh up those options. I think, those options. I think, actually, who is the who is the best to sort out these particular problems that theyre unhappy your party is unhappy about. So your party is running out of time. Unhappy about. So your party is run the out of time. Unhappy about. So your party is run the message he. Unhappy about. So your party is run the message has been that the message has been that there be time to turn there will be time to turn things around, but we learn this morning that for the last two quarters of, of 2023, the country actually dipped into a technical recession. Weve been technical recession. Weve been discussing the five pledges of the Prime Minister. It seems like hes only winning on one of them. How much longer does he need . Well, he needs until the general election. Doesnt he . And then the general election. He needs to persuade people that our plan for the future of the country better than the country is better than the labour the labour partys plan for the future country. Im future of the country. And im pretty sure when people pretty sure that when people look at those two options, theyll come that, uh, theyll come to that, uh, conclusion. Yeah. Look theyll come to that, uh, conclsunak, yeah. Look theyll come to that, uh, conclsunak, mean, h. Look theyll come to that, uh, conclsunak, mean, people rishi sunak, i mean, people treat rishi sunak as if he inherited a, a sort of an economic miracle and inherited a 30 point lead in the opinion polls. He actually inherited about a 30 point deficit in the opinion polls and a terrible situation. Thats why he became situation. Thats why he became Prime Minister and hes been trying to stabilise the ship. I think that, um, he has stabilised it. 20 points behind fell. 20 points behind fell. Look, the theres still theres you know, i think i saw a poll last week that showed there were 12 points behind. Theres a variety of polls, um, you know, that show different things. I think matt will be more of expert me on more of an expert than me on this. Probably depends this. It probably depends how they carry method. Um, they carry out their method. Um, but yeah, weve got a mountains to climb. We had a mountain to climb over. Weve climb when he took over. Weve still a mountain to climb, still got a mountain to climb, but that doesnt mean to say that be climbed. That mountains cant be climbed. And question is, do we have and the question is, do we have the right plans to deal with the problems of countries facing, uh, cut taxes the uh, and if we cut taxes in the budget, if we get the rwanda plan and running, then plan up and running, uh, then i think that people might conclude. Well, actually, it has. Well, actually, yes, it has been sticky period and we have been a sticky period and we have gone through a turmoil. And by the of turmoil the way, most of this turmoil has been caused by locking down the which some of us the economy, which some of us warned time during covid, warned at the time during covid, that was a complete disaster. And pooh poohed and we were we were pooh poohed at but think weve at the time. But i think weve been to be correct. But been proved to be correct. But but the question who do but the question is, who do people in the in the people trust in the in the future . And weve got to persuade people when the general election are election comes that we are a better bet than labour better bet than the labour party. Thats effect, what party. Thats in effect, what the election will the next election will be decided and our task in decided by. And so our task in the next few months . Decided by. And so our task in the no,t few months . Decided by. And so our task in the no, it ew months . Decided by. And so our task in the no, it hasnonths . Decided by. And so our task in the no, it has been s . Decided by. And so our task in the no, it has been fascinating no, it has been fascinating today to read of just how many European Countries in the European Countries are in the same doldrums as we same economic doldrums as we are. Its not just the United Kingdom thats in a technical recession our recession at the moment. Our neighbours ireland, denmark, neighbours in ireland, denmark, sweden , the netherlands, uh, sweden, the netherlands, uh, weve heard about the economic malaise of germany as well. Frankly he is whoever has the reins of the british economy in a poisoned chalice as well. A poisoned chalice as well. So, look, everyone suffered the same from the same international phenomenon. Weve all suffered from the fact that everybody followed like sheep and locked down their economy. Uh, weve all suffered the inflation from all. All opening up the economy all at the same time. Having boost time. And having a huge boost in, in, in, in people, you know, in, in, in, in people, you know, in demand , which caused a huge in demand, which caused a huge spike in inflation. Weve all suffered the war in suffered from the war in ukraine. And the impact of that with all their suffered from High Energy Prices and higher food and high inflation food prices and high inflation and higher Interest Rates. Thats thats not just the thats been thats not just the uk happened where thats uk thats happened where thats happened, the happened, thats happened the world so it would world over. And so and it would have happened had been a Labour Government lock government who wanted to lock down economy even down the economy for even longer, recall. Longer, uh, if i recall. So look, it wouldnt have been any different if labour had been in office, they would say it office, they would have say it faced exactly the same pressures. The pressures. The question the country to decide country will have to decide is whos best deal with those whos best to deal with those particular and i still particular issues. And i still maintain want to get maintain that if you want to get Economic Growth, a party thats instinct cut taxes instinct is to is to cut taxes rather put them up. Is rather than put them up. Is better place to do it. If you if your problem is immigration, a party whos actually trying to solve the problem is better than a party doesnt care a party that doesnt even care about problem. And so about the problem. Uh, and so i sort think that when sort of think that when a general election comes and if we have some debates between the leaders, um, i dont think its impossible that people will conclude , however reluctantly, conclude, however reluctantly, that actually the conservatives are a better bet to deal with the challenges the country faces than that than the labour party that doesnt about any of doesnt have a clue about any of the the country faces i yeah, youre completely right about the global situation. Weve seen Interest Rates shoot up in the United States of america, in the america, in canada, in the European Central bank, in australasia, as well. But australasia, as well. But frankly, some extent , we had frankly, to some extent, we had this argument in 2010. The conservative party would say its a labour party recession, and the labour party would say its a Global Financial crisis. Its a Global Financial crisis. It feels like the shoe is on, the other boot is on the other foot. At this point in time, the pendulum might have swung world events. Sometimes just, uh, just turn up and as one former Prime Minister once said, events, dear boy events. But, phil, well be back with you later in the programme. Philip davies, mp for shipley, conservative member of parliament um, really parliament there. Um, we really thank you for your time. I want to extend the conversation out now head of policy and now to the head of policy and pubuc now to the head of policy and Public Affairs at opinium research, crouch. Plus my research, james crouch. Plus my studio guest still with me , studio guest still with me, former labour mp Stephen Pound and the professor of politics at the university of kent, matt goodwin um, james, youre goodwin in, um, james, youre a pollster. You look at these numbers day in day out. What can we say about what happened at the start of this week . Was there a wobble . Did we start to there a wobble . Did we start to see a way in which the conservatives could fight back from this . From this . Uh, good morning, tom. Uh, so. Well, our last poll that we published opinium was actually the fieldwork was the middle of last week, so we dont have updated numbers from this week yet, but that actually showed an 18 point lead for labour, which is highest weve seen since is the highest weve seen since liz truss left office. And that was after the 28 billion u turn. So that was just as that was starting to hit. Um, so what weve the news. Um, so what weve got now is we first had the £28 billion u turn, then then followed from that. We had the deselection or the well, the kind of, uh, redraw of support for azhar ali and so what you its okay. So there are there are broadcast regulations. When we mentioned the names, we will mentioned the names, we will mention all of the candidates names at the end of this hour. Its completely we were expecting to do this. Weve got the ready. Its all the graphics ready. Its all good. But no talking about that. Rochdale by election. Had all of those um, so weve had all of those changes happen. So the expectation is that labour would probably have a dent. And other probably have a dent. And other pollsters have seen that. But the real problem will still be that friday morning or this that on friday morning or this morning , in fact, we will morning, in fact, that we will have headline probably of two have a headline probably of two conservative losses conservative by election losses and that will give keir starmer the space which the breathing space which to break of bad news. Break that spate of bad news. And how much do two victories beget victories. This sort of sense of a of a snowballing campaign , the sense of perhaps campaign, the sense of perhaps what some people call the strong horse theory of politics, when theres a candidate in the lead, when theres a candidate who looks like a winner. We sort of saw that rally around the flag effect with donald trump in the united keir starmer United States. If keir starmer suddenly like a winner off suddenly looks like a winner off the by elections, the back of these by elections, is likely that more people is it likely that more people will believe him . Will think will believe in him . Will think of as a strong leader . Of him as a strong leader . Already what well, this is already what were to see. So for were starting to see. So so for the first time, i think at the end of last year, we had a majority people expect that majority of people expect that labour to win the next labour was going to win the next election and all those, election and all of those, i guess those expectations start to become a little bit self fulfilling. So when you have minister whos have a Prime Minister whos sitting there and the public think, well, youre definitely not going to be the guy winning the election, that is the next election, um, that is very hard to fight back from. Its very to demonstrate its very hard to demonstrate that youre control. The that youre in control. The person whos strong , ready to person whos strong, ready to make decisions is very make tough decisions is very difficult to demonstrate that when think youll be out when people think youll be out the door within 12 months. Say were now, i should say were looking at live pictures of the wellingborough count our wellingborough count on our screens know that the screens now we know that the counting has begun, but all counting has begun, but not all of those look like they of those boxes look like they are yet, so count is are in yet, so the count is still in its early stages. Matt goodwin still with us, frankly, is this why what were talking about here . The sort of the winning begetting, Winning People expecting someone to lose, making them look like a loser . This why the labour loser . Is this why the labour party has been using the word weak whenever they talk weak so much whenever they talk about rishi sunak, they include the word weak in the sentence. Is that sort of ing it is that sort of drill ing it into the minds of people, almost making a self fulfilling making that a self fulfilling prophecy . There are prophecy . Yeah i think there are two on there, tom. Two things going on there, tom. One we know from focus one is we know from focus groups uh, partners groups that, uh, joe partners for example, have released this week, that is a word that week, that week is a word that people with rishi people associate with rishi sunak. Know, however, at sunak. We also know, however, at the same time compared to the same time that compared to keir sunak , ratings are keir starmer, sunak, ratings are are weaker and theyve just reached a new low. So he has a reached a new low. So he has a leadership problem. The party itself has an image problem. The net satisfaction score for the conservatives today is about 65, which is basically where Prince Andrew is within the royal family. If you want a Reference Point standing, uh, no hes not. But we better mention the other members of the royal family. Yeah broadcasting regulations, but theres a very serious there is a serious point here, which is that, you know, there is part of me that actually feels quite sorry for rishi sunak because, you know, he is unpopular, a keir starmer isnt the isnt exactly setting the country by the way, but country on fire by the way, but hes around this hes dragging around this party that soaked of the that has soaked up all of the toxicity of partygate , out of toxicity of partygate, out of liz of inflation and now liz truss, of inflation and now recession. I mean, its almost an Impossible Task to turn that that kind. He was golden boy. He was the most popular politician in the country. At one point, when he was giving away £400 billion. I mean, if i was giving mean, you know, if i was giving away billion, be the away 400 billion, id be the most popular professor in the country. Mean, on, lets country. I mean, come on, lets you get serious. You know, lets get serious. Yeah, yeah, but but yeah, yeah, yeah, but but hes also its your its your prognosis the prognosis that its the conservative partys brand thats dragged rishi sunak. Is completely bust. The brand is completely bust. I brand completely i mean, the brand is completely toxic. Lets not forget toxic. Well, lets not forget rishi decisions rishi sunak took decisions of his you in his own. Tom, you were in manchester at the party conference. The decision conference. He took the decision to banning smoking conference. He took the decision to reforming anning smoking conference. He took the decision to reforming a levelsnoking conference. He took the decision to reforming a levels when] and reforming a levels when the country wanted to talk about the cost of living crisis and stopping boats. Stopping the small boats. He took the decision say im took the decision to say im a change and then change candidate and then brought David Cameron. Brought back David Cameron. He has made a series of decisions along think along the way, which i think have his premiership, have undermined his premiership, and there have been and i know there have been different advisers in number 10, almost for where almost battling it out for where rishi should face what rishi sunak should face for what his like. His campaign should look like. But stephen, as a former member someone member of parliament, as someone who have sat there on the who will have sat there on the green benches, getting your lines of lines to take on both sides of the house, your lines to the house, getting your lines to take the labour election take from the labour election machine was very machine back when it was very formidable and when it was less formidable. Do you recognise this idea that words are picked up in focus groups and then spewed out to politicians, almost to reinforce the prejudices of the electorate . 100 . You may remember tony 100 . You may remember tony blair and john major in 1996. Week, week, week , you know, and week, week, week, you know, and that was the way we used to have to wear pages in those days. We had to clip them on. I think they were surgically attached to us. Us. And did you have your lines to take beeping on your pager . Im not sure if i can say this, but yes. Yeah, we did. And they used to say, breathe in, breathe and but look a breathe out. And but look a serious you a very, serious point. You asked a very, very question that every very serious question that every single this country single democrat in this country should themselves, who should be asking themselves, who wants the election . Wants to win the next election . And immediate if and my Immediate Reaction is, if you imagine the worst ever circumstances that any government entire history circumstances that any govern country entire history circumstances that any govern country is entire history circumstances that any govern country is certainly|istory of this country is certainly going to the napoleonic going back to the napoleonic wars has come in. Clement wars has ever come in. Clement attlee 1945, the country is a attlee in 1945, the country is a smoking after years smoking ruin after six years of war. Said, who war. Everybody said, who on earth to this . Within earth wants to win this . Within 3 4 years wed set up the 3 or 4 years wed set up the nhs. Wed actually got the country again because of country going again because of the energy. Within 3 or 4 years, wed most of empire. Wed lost most of our empire. Yeah, pretty much yeah, i think we pretty much lost that with thanks to the lost that with it. Thanks to the americans you remember lost that with it. Thanks to the am how did that happen when the americans money . Or how did that happen when the ameit ans money . Or how did that happen when the ameit that money . Or how did that happen when the ameit that clem money . Or how did that happen when the ameit that clem attlee money . Or how did that happen when the ameit that clem attlee wasnt y . Or was it that clem attlee wasnt perhaps as good as say . Perhaps as good as you say . I dont clement. Well, i dont clement. Well, i dont clement. He didnt sign off on bretton woods. I mean, and forget woods. I mean, and dont forget those boats that we those liberty boats that we took. Wanted them 1942, took. We wanted them in 1942, 1943, is we got the 1943, which is when we got the ships there. But ships over there. But its a long time since i did my economics degree at the London School of economics. I only got a21 well perhaps we a21 professor. Well perhaps we should zoom forward to more recent political than recent political history than the my fault, isnt it . Well my fault, isnt it . Well i think should probably look at think we should probably look at where uh, relate the where we can, uh, relate the current political time. Is this looking like 1997, an election you stood in . Is this feeling like 1997 . Not at the moment, no. Because i think the euphoria of 97 was quite extraordinary. I mean, the two in my lifetime, Margaret Thatcher coming over the hill in 1979, you could feel it coming. Jim callaghan i remember talking at a private meeting i with my union at meeting i had with my union at the and just talked the time, and he just talked about the tectonic plates are shifting. Theres nothing you about the tectonic plates are shifdo. Theres nothing you about the tectonic plates are shifdo. The;res nothing you about the tectonic plates are shifdo. The rocks othing you about the tectonic plates are shifdo. The rocks rollingyou about the tectonic plates are shifdo. The rocks rolling down can do. The rocks rolling down the we actually felt the mountain. We actually felt that going to come. We that it was going to come. We could coming and it was could see it coming and it was it was tangible. Could feel it was tangible. We could feel it was tangible. We could feel it i still feel that it coming. I still feel that about time, not to the about this time, but not to the same extent. Theres not that exhilaration. Theres that exhilaration. Theres not that things better. Things can only get better. Theres joyous feeling theres not that joyous feeling on streets. But but the on the streets. But but on the other hand, dont forget, people make minds up five weeks make their minds up five weeks before so before a general election. So weve to play for. Weve got a lot to play for. Youre nodding your head here that it doesnt feel like 1997. And pollster. And yet youre a pollster. Youre guy. The youre a numbers guy. The numbers the same 1997. Numbers look the same as 1997. Why are the numbers and the feeling so different . Just because people are feeling so different . To just because people are feeling so different . To choose cause people are feeling so different . To choose t01se people are feeling so different . To choose to vote eople are feeling so different . To choose to vote forle are feeling so different . To choose to vote for the re going to choose to vote for the labour party to get this current government out, doesnt necessarily mean that the feeling the same numbers feeling behind the same numbers necessarily same. Necessarily has to be the same. If look at of the kind if you look at any of the kind of issues, you find of of key issues, you find none of the above winning on an awful lot them, which actually lot of them, which is actually when about it, when you think about it, probably depressing about probably quite depressing about what people think about the next five in politics. Is the five years in politics. Is the choice definitely has to to choice definitely has to be to get the current government out. But what are we replacing it with and why are we replacing it, are we hoping the it, and what are we hoping the labour party is going do with labour party is going to do with that mandate . I dont the that mandate . I dont think the pubuc that mandate . I dont think the public particularly on that. And just a final word to you in segment, matt, clearly , in this segment, matt, clearly, none of above winning in so none of the above winning in so many of these categories is a huge, failure. Of the two huge, huge failure. Of the two major parties. Were major parties. And yet were talking tonight. Talking about reform tonight. Theyre standing there. Theyve just eked up a little bit in the polls. Arent they miles polls. Why arent they miles ahead there is this huge gap ahead if there is this huge gap in british politics. Averaging 11 well theyre averaging 11 now nationally. I think to be honest, this evening ill be looking at whether they get up to 15, 16. Thats kind of where they really should be. If theyre going to be demonstrating that theyre a serious and theyre serious threat and theyre theyre in line with serious threat and theyre they national in line with serious threat and theyre they National Polling. Ine with serious threat and theyre they National Polling. Look,ith their National Polling. Look, i know reform have a brand know reform have got a brand problem. Many people still dont know have know who they are. They have a leadership many people leadership problem. Many people dont who richard tice is. Dont know who richard tice is. They have problem. Many they have a money problem. Many of brexit donors of the big brexit donors that threw at brexit and that threw money at brexit and that referendum still reluctant referendum are still reluctant to behind reform. That to get in behind reform. That will be the interesting thing. Theres a woman i mean, theres a woman called anna savage gun whos the liberal candidate, liberal democrat candidate, a fantastic a former police fantastic name, a former Police Officer. Savage gun, officer. Yeah. Savage gun, a savage gun, a movie about tough on crime, tough on criminals , on crime, tough on criminals, tough on everybody. But look, if reform overtake the liberals, then they will be, you know, a gnashing of teeth and pulling out of hell. But look, when i was up there last week, i noticed. Extraordinary. You know, this this extraordinary image of the van with pas covered in parking tickets outside the conservative office that vw camper that that was a big vw camper that i saw in where i was in irthlingborough up way irthlingborough and up that way towards of towards rushden. The number of reform on doors, reform people knocking on doors, driving down, booming driving up and down, booming out through their speakers, absolutely extraordinary. Through their speakers, absowasly extraordinary. Through their speakers, absowas the ltraordinary. Through their speakers, absowas the sortrdinary. Through their speakers, absowas the sort of1ary. Through their speakers, absowas the sort of energy that that was the sort of energy that you energy, but you see from people energy, but not sort of not necessarily the same sort of ground that years and years ground game that years and years of political experience have. Of political experience have. Voters are, i knowing where voters are, i think. Think. T were in a more i think were in a more facile time of politics. I think were in pick and mix. I think were in pick and mix. I think were in pick and mix. I think were in retail politics now. The certainties, mean, the old certainties, i mean, matt better me, but matt knows better than me, but 1955, of the people in 1955, 98 of the people in this country voted for one country who voted voted for one of the two main parties. Its nowhere near that now, nowhere near theres more choice. Maybe theres more choice. Well, hold well, gentlemen, lets hold these because we do these thoughts, because we do have a lot more to cover tonight. Well, of be back with. Well, of course, be back with you moment. And you in a moment. And indeed, well be talking to anna savage gun we all look gun herself, so we can all look forward that. But with forward to that. But with two crunch elections in one crunch by elections in one night, could it be make or break for parties ahead of this for the parties ahead of this years general election . Our Political Editor, christopher hope, a breakdown on hope, gives us a breakdown on what tonight means for the near future. Future. Our elections are like london buses nowadays. You wait for one and then two. Come along at the same time. And so it is with the wellingborough kingswood. By wellingborough and kingswood. By elections. Kingswood elections. The kingswood by election, caused by an mp leaving Parliament Early in a seat which wont even exist in the general election in a few months time, and the wellingborough by election caused by an quitting caused by an mp quitting parliament in disgrace. So the tory party hasnt really sent anyone here to campaign of a senior level. Certainly not rishi sunak preferring to focus its efforts on winning these seats back. If labour win them at the general election in a few months time. So for labour, an opportunity , but still a opportunity, but still a mountain to climb. The party ran mountain to climb. The party ran the tory party close in both seats in 2019. The conservative majority in that in that election was 18,000. In wellingborough. And 11,000 in wellingborough. And 11,000 in kingswood. So a lot to play for kingswood. So a lot to play for the party, but still a mountain to climb in wellingborough, labour needs an 18 swing to win the seat in kingswood and 11 swing, but possible because these swings are far less than required to win the tamworth by election. The selby and ainsty by election and in the mid bedfordshire by election last year , labours say neither last year, labours say neither of these seats is on the partys target target for general Election Campaign , so theyre Election Campaign, so theyre both trying to manage a degree of expectation. Still, both by of expectation. Still, both by elections offer a chance for the electorate to pass judgement on the woes of both main parties on the woes of both main parties on the day the government announced that this country has fallen into recession , the voters may into recession, the voters may want to pass judgement on its economic record. For labour, its economic record. For labour, its got problems with a u turn last week on green spending and more recently , the ugly face of recently, the ugly face of anti semitism rising in its ranks. But dont forget the minor parties. Ranks. But dont forget the minor parties. The lib dems were minor parties. The lib dems were distant third in both elections in both seats in 2019, but in wellingborough, reform uk is pushing very hard to try and get any vote which might replicate its standing in National Polls. Anything more than 10 is quite a good result for reform, and if the party can push the tory party into third place behind a labour victory in wellingborough, well that will provide the party with big momentum. Now theres talk all momentum. Now theres talk all the time in westminster of opinion polls , small samples of opinion polls, small samples of people and those those opinions of those people moved onto a much bigger national canvass. But by elections are different. They offer a chance for the electorate to register a protest vote about the governing party, or even a warning for the challenging, challenging part of the labour party in this case. But what it must do more to win the next general election. Thats why i think tonights vote in wellingborough and kingswood will have a real bearing, far more than opinion polls run up to the big polls in the run up to the big one. This years general election. Election. Smashing stuff from christopher hope, our political edhon christopher hope, our Political Editor. There well, im delighted to welcome now the telegraph columnist Allison Pearson and the former labour Party Adviser matthew lazor. Matthew, lets start with you. Frankly the labour party has been trying to play down expectations tonight , but expectations tonight, but expectations tonight, but expectations are sky high. Why youre the bookies favourites to win both these seats. Win both these seats. Yeah, absolutely. And i can just say im just having a flashbacks to the by election that i did with ed miliband, where we did nearly actually lose and being in a travelodge on a, on a, on a Motorway Service area outside uh, 20 2014. In 2015, it was the heywood and middleton by election. Wow thats when ukip was really thats was surging in thats when ukip was surging in and in a couple and labour were in a couple hundred ahead. So expectations management are of are an important part of the spin game. I think that spin doctors game. I think that what from the labour what im hearing from the labour party is that things are looking, theyre looking, you know, that theyre calming theyre, you calming down, that theyre, you know, in know, naturally, people in politics beings. And politics are human beings. And its difficult for its been a difficult week for laboun its been a difficult week for labour. Therefore you know, labour. So therefore you know, just a of human just just on a sort of human level, people are a bit more uncertain. But i that uncertain. But i think that wellingborough is looking good and theyre not quite calling kings but, but kings kingswood yet. But, but but but i mean, but they will. But yes, i mean, you know, i, we should be expecting to win both of expecting labour to win both of these. The if, if the these. And on the if, if the polls are to believed and if polls are to be believed and if keir going to get into keir is going to get into downing street so. Well thats, thats all right or thats looking all right or honest for the former labour, you honest the you know, honest about the secrets spin doctors are secrets of the spin doctors are and those memories of that travel lodge will be with me forever. Amazing. Well alison, it is extraordinary. Looking amazing. Well alison, it is extra0|numbers looking amazing. Well alison, it is extra0|numbers here. Looking amazing. Well alison, it is extra0|numbers here. Kingswood at the numbers here. Kingswood has a majority of 11,220. Wellingborough majority wellingborough a majority of 18,400 how on earth are we 18,400 540. How on earth are we talking about these as marginals, tom . No thing as a there is no such thing as a conservative safe seat. There is no longer any such thing for conservative safe seat. Ive been saying this for two years. Um, its just true. So whats really happening is my lot. Those are the tory faithful, no longer faithful. Absolutely. Longer faithful. Absolutely. Some of them want revenge. Uh, some of them just massively disillusioned. And what weve seen on almost all of the by elections over the last two and a half years. Is the tories staying home now . Im just going to turn to matthew now because were going to something to do with your to fix something to do with your microphone. But, um, but matthew, the, the party matthew, the, the labor party is in very interesting position in a very interesting position now because when youre this far ahead, almost like you can ahead, its almost like you can only trip up. And we started to see a little bit of that at the start of this week. Absolutely. Hence my, my friends having a slightly, you know , uh, you know, sort of know, uh, you know, sort of troubling few days, especially with two by elections in the same year. How did it go so wrong in Labour Party Candidate vetting . The issue about well, i mean, the issue about the vetting for the candidate vetting for the candidate, x candidate in candidate, the x candidate in rochdale, uh, was is a complicated one because because hes , uh, was seen as a sort of hes, uh, was seen as a sort of moderate within the party. Nobody had heard anything about this before. There was nothing on social media which would have been trawled. Um, louise been fully trawled. Um, louise ellman, whos, uh, you see, there was nothing on social media. There was, fact , an image there was, in fact, an image that gb news played out just a couple of days ago of the former laboun couple of days ago of the former labour. Well, still, the candidate theyve got labour next to his name on the ballot papen next to his name on the ballot paper, shaking hands with George Galloway. He posted it himself. Well, they should have. They certainly should certainly they certainly should have spotted. But he was basically labour terms, basically in labour party terms, he was a kind of seen as a he used with hazel blears, used to work with hazel blears, the cabinet minister for the former cabinet minister for um, uh, you know, he lots of people vouched for him. Was people vouched for him. He was excuse he was seen as a good excuse me. He was seen as a good guy in overall. And therefore i think people think that what people were reluctant throw him reluctant to do is throw him under the bus, particularly when you george you ended up with George Galloway i mean, galloway on the thing. I mean, look, all other circumstances look, in all other circumstances over weekend, if the over the weekend, if the nominations closed, he nominations hadnt closed, he would in 15 minutes. Do you think that the labour left actually might have a bit of they say youre of a point here . They say youre going to me the going to make me say the sentence the left might sentence the labour left might have of a point which, you have a bit of a point which, you know, will go down in history as one times i would one of the few times i would have said it. I think they, i think look because of course what they argue that um, while may argue that um, while there may have in the have been anti semitism in the labour its been labour party, its always been directed left and directed against the left and the that. The right of that. The centrists the the centrists within the party sort of got an easier party have sort of got an easier time have been given more time of it, have been given more benefit the doubt. Benefit of the doubt. Absolutely, tom. I mean, look, its not just the labour left that the times left is saying that the times sketchwriter was sketchwriter yesterday was saying you know, reminding saying that, you know, reminding us that rebecca long bailey, who, know, came second, us that rebecca long bailey, whcin know, came second, us that rebecca long bailey, whcin the, know, came second, us that rebecca long bailey, whcin the, in know, came second, us that rebecca long bailey, whcin the, in the iw, came second, us that rebecca long bailey, whcin the, in the leadership;cond, uh, in the, in the leadership contest, the deputy leadership contest, the deputy leadership contest so in the contest that she um, so in the leadership she um, leadership contest, she was, um, the corbynite against the corbynite candidate against keir. That she was keir. Uh that what, that she was kicked out. Remind kicked out. Lets remind what her crime was retweeting her crime was. It was retweeting and interview with a former coronation actress coronation street actress wherein about paragraph 36, she said something not not not rebecca long bailey, but the coronation julie coronation street actress Julie Hesmondhalgh said something that was in a was critical of israel, but in a sort fairly mild terms. And sort of fairly mild terms. And she was gone in about shed gone on about three minutes out of the so double the shadow cabinet. So double standards good look. Standards is not a good look. The factions within the labour fascinating and labour party are fascinating and they kept, but not they need to be kept, but not least, dont have the seven least, we dont have the seven families in the tories. Well, this what ive got. Well, this is what ive got. Well, this is what ive got. On two. Used to be three on two. It used to be throughout the years that we would talk about the cbgbs and the um, the various the and the, um, the various hard the hard left factions within the labour party that. Well, labour party beyond that. Well, its tory party thats its now the tory party thats looking divided, potentially. Ive lost track of all the acronyms as weve got the popcorns, napkins, new popcorns, the napkins, the new cons, know, the erg is old cons, you know, the erg is old hat i mean, hat now the chat cons, i mean, you honestly, mean, ive you know, honestly, i mean, ive lost theres at least sort of 6 or 7 of them. Arent there really. Itsjust or 7 of them. Arent there really. Its just a sign, isnt it . Its a sign. Its a its an end of sign. Really. Theyre end of day sign. Really. Theyre all now. Theyre all all splitting now. Theyre all positioning for the positioning themselves for the succession again, basically. And all people in for all the people who are in for the succession, including kemi badenoch, leading candidate, the succession, including kemi bade dont leading candidate, the succession, including kemi bade dont wanteading candidate, the succession, including kemi bade dont want theng candidate, the succession, including kemi bade dont want they dontdidate, the succession, including kemi bade dont want they dont want;, they dont want they dont want to tom, they dont to go now. Now tom, they dont want come forward want to come forward because they, um, im going to say they, um, im not going to say what of them said. Im going what one of them said. Im going to think of a polite way to try and think of a polite way of goodness me. Of saying is, goodness me. Well, yes, we are after the watershed. Im not sure he can he can own his own pile of dot, dot, dot, dot. That is a that is a such a fascinating way to see things because it could be a small because it could be a very small rump of conservative mps, if were believe some these were to believe some of these big polls, very specific big mrp polls, the very specific data polls, very data driven polls, very expensive. Some expensive to do. Some of them have conservative party have the conservative party going seats. Going below 100 seats. I think its easily. I was saying to Matthew Easley at 120, possibly below below 100 worse than 1997, worse than 1997. But the serial betrayal, you see, because because they now feel fool me once, fool me twice. Youre not fooling me again. So basically, we have a conservative government which has promised each election to reduce immigration. Immigration for people who voted tory in 2019, is not only the most important issue, its 20 points ahead of any other issue. And yet, alison, the paper you write for the telegraph is a big supporter of Boris Johnson. Supporter of Boris Johnson. Boris johnson was behind some of the reforms that led to the high levels of migration, whether it was the, uh, visa system for hong kongers fleeing communism , noble though it was, communism, noble though it was, whether it was for the ukrainian refugee scheme, but also for some of these, uh, graduate visa was and the idea that University Students could bring over their families, that was all Boris Johnsons migration reform. Im not going to defend him on that. He has he has a magnificent bonhomous spirit, you know, so it was all a welcome. No, that was a grave. Welcome. No, that was a grave. That was a grave misjudgement. But you cant last year, 745,000 net immigration. Uh, you just you just cant do that to people. They are. They were so flabbergasted at that, i think. And thats what well be seeing tonight is people have given up on them and they will. Matthew and i were talking about, can they be persuaded back . So theres this idea that my sense is no, absolutely not, alison. There will be people watching tonight who find it mind boggung tonight who find it mind boggling that the beneficiaries of a public reaction against the conservatives for too much immigration is the labour party. Immigration is the labour party. Well, i dont know why, tom, because immigration was lower under the last Labour Government. Under this government. It is under this government. It is under this government fact. Labour closed government fact. Labour closed the calais migrant camp in the then calais migrant camp in sangatte by working properly with and, you with the french fact and, you know, so i know its an instinct that people have that labour is weak on immigration. The facts dont numbers speak dont speak, the numbers speak for themselves. You are absolutely true to say today is say that immigration today is higher was any year higher than it was at any year under the labour party. From 1997 to 2010, but the rate of change was steeper under the labour party, going from the tens of thousands to the hundreds of thousands is a bigger shift. But also going from the low hundreds of thousands to the mid hundreds. The crucial thing it but the crucial thing was it was different sort of was a different sort of immigration it was mostly immigration and it was mostly from it was from the eu, it was overwhelmingly from eu, overwhelmingly from the eu, and a went home. I a lot of people went home. So, i mean, if id been running the remain in the remain campaign in the referendum, have pointed referendum, i would have pointed out that, yes, you had out the fact that, yes, you had freedom of movement, freedom of movement way process movement is a two way process that went home. And what that people went home. And what you now is people you have is seeing now is people coming particularly dependent. Youre issue youre seeing this huge issue about justin about dependence. Justin trudeau, wokeist leader in about dependence. Justin tru west, wokeist leader in about dependence. Justin tru west, you ilokeist leader in about dependence. Justin tru west, you ilokeist argue, in about dependence. Justin tru west, you ilokeist argue, has the west, you might argue, has just down in the past just clamped down in the past fortnight on university fortnight hugely on University Students and particularly bringing its bringing dependents because its in its completely messing up the Canadian Housing market. Its a huge, know, its its a huge, you know, its a huge and its fascinating huge issue and its fascinating actually. Like sunak 20 trudeau just like sunak 20 points behind in the polls , the points behind in the polls, the canadian conservative leader pierre poilievre, is actually presenting a pro House Building policy much akin to keir starmer. Its almost like the parties are in reverse in canada and the United Kingdom. It wasnt wasnt there it wasnt there. Wasnt there a i think, a Canadian Party . I think, called reform, which actually went down to or 3 because the went down to 2 or 3 because the tories and then reform came up. Yeah. Yeah. So the so the then now the reform conservatives. So the story of canada in 1992 is fascinating and perhaps fascinating. And its perhaps a word of warning to the conservatives this time the conservatives this time the conservative was seen to conservative party was seen to go too too liberal, soft, too left. They changed their party leader and there was a new party called reform that started to grow in the west to get some of the more conservative votes. What happened . The right was split by these two parties. The conservatives and reform and the conservatives went down to 2 or 3 seats from from over 100 to just 2 or 3 seats in 1992. Is there a risk . And it ended up with a reverse takeover of the existing conservative party by the reform, not from western canada and five, the what was then the Progressive Conservative Party became just the conservative party merged with reform. Party merged with reform. Um, Stephen Harper um, and Stephen Harper actually got back in as canadian Prime Minister less than ten years. Oh just over about 15 years. Oh just over about 15 years after that big, big loss. So it does show how things can turn around, but also, alison, it shows just how low incumbent governments can fall. I think theres tremendous arrogance and complacency. I arrogance and complacency. I think they think, oh, thats not going to happen. Something will turn up. Im saying it wont. I think that, uh, that the conservative government is not conservative and concern voters are not having it. So i think were going to see, you know, were going to see, you know, were just you know, as i said, it will be revenge or just absolute dumb with them now. And the big issue for me is will they come out and vote for ben habib in wellingborough, or will they just stay home . Because what weve seen pattern is what weve seen the pattern is the its not that theres a huge surge, enthusiasm surge, tom, for of enthusiasm for labour. We never see those figures for labour going up. Its the tory votes are missing. People staying home, people staying home. Uh, Alison Pearson and matthew laza will be with you. Of course, again. But, alison, you mentioned what has happened to those reform uk votes in wellingborough. Why dont we check in at the counts . Our reporters are primed and ready bring you updates in ready to bring you updates in both and both wellingborough and kingswood. Cost first to kingswood. Lets cost first to northamptonshire with our east Midlands Reporter whos covering that wellingborough count. Uh, that wellingborough count. Uh, will i believe you have a candidate with you. Candidate with you. Yes. Well weve just had the turnout come through at 38. Much lower , 26 lower than the 2019 lower, 26 lower than the 2019 general election. It isnt just general election. It isnt just journalists here waiting anxiously. And there is an army of journalists for the wellingborough by election weve got anna savage going as well. The liberal democrat candidate. Anna, thanks for joining the liberal democrat candidate. Anna, thanks forjoining us anna, thanks for joining us today on news how has this today on gb news how has this campaign gone for you . Whats the response been like from the people in wellingborough . Theres a lot of anger and frustration. Um at and they really when you , when they open really when you, when they open the door to you they just dont really want to engage with a politician because of all of the history medical scandals weve had and then, of course, peter bones , the scandal around that bones, the scandal around that and so the first job was to try and so the first job was to try and engage with them and get them to believe that you will do something for them, and youre not in it for yourself. I mean, that was the toughest ask. Youve got a long history in wellingborough. You served as a Police Officer for northamptonshire police. Crime northamptonshire police. Crime has been the big thing that ive heard from people in wellingborough. Just how bad is it in wellingborough in this area that you served as a bobby on beat . Well, its 29 on the beat . Well, its 29 higher crime rate in wellingborough than it is in the rest of the county. And there needs to be a lot more policing here. A lot of the stuff was based around Youth Services here and we went to queensway and to see a wonderful priest there. Father and he is trying to do a lot for Youth Services, but hes struggling financially with getting sponsorship for that. And i see sponsorship for that. And i see that that would be a great place for police and the Police Crime Commissioner to spend some of the 2. 5 million that he has in his coffers for Youth Services , his coffers for Youth Services, that i dont actually quite see where its being spent. It where its being spent. It really should be spent there. I mean , in northamptonshire, that mean, in northamptonshire, that is the place that it should be spent and i dont see it and nor do did, uh , father ben either. Do did, uh, father ben either. Youve got the benefit of being local to this area, being local to wellingborough, having a history in the police, which goes down well with the electorate. But is this election here in wellingborough ultimately about giving peter bowen and the tories a really good kicking . Tories a really good kicking . And you think the liberal and how do you think the liberal democrats come of this democrats will come out of this in three hours, do in about three hours, when we do get that result . Get that election result . This is going to be i think this is going to be a lot of people on the doorstep are going to tactically vote. And now ive spoken to people on the doorstep that ive worked with their father in the Police Service and they are going to tactically vote for labour. And theyve said to me, anna, you know , i trust you up at and but know, i trust you up at and but i will vote labour because i just dont want the conservatives back in because of the scandal and because of their National Issues as well. And i say, great, do that. Thats say, great, do that. Thats thats fine by me because in a sense that helps all round because the country is in a bit of a mess. Of a mess. Does that mean that this isnt really about winning for you . This is just about making point. Yes. And for quite a few of us that are going to not be at the lower end in is its about giving the people of wellingborough, rushden and higham a voice to voice our anger at what on earth is happening to politics in Northampton Shire. Um, you know, the police chief, the medal scandal , the police crime scandal, the Police Crime Commissioner putting a lady friend of his as the fire chief. Its just been scandal after scandal and everybody is angry. So if all i do is give the constituents of wellingborough a voice, and they know that theyve been heard, then thats fine by me. Fine by me. Anas sarwar john dunne, the liberal democrat candidate. Thank you so much for speaking to us. Its a long night. Weve still got few hours, so still got a few more hours, so thanks sparing a little bit thanks for sparing a little bit of your time. We are waiting anxiously. About 4 00 anxiously. Its about 4 00 that were to that were going to hear that election result. Still election result. So still watching tom. Well watching the clock, tom. Well thank you very much. And please do tell anna savage gun. What a fantastic name she has a police name she has for a Police Officer. Fantastic nick. Well, thats liberal democrat thats the liberal democrat Party Candidate there. Uh, at that, uh, wellingborough count. That, uh, wellingborough count. Uh, lets go back to Philip Davies now, the conservative mp for shipley and philip. Its fascinating to hear that the lib dems perhaps arent expecting to do that. Well, theyre expecting their votes to almost consolidate with the labour party. Are we expecting a lot of party. Are we expecting a lot of tactical voting, not just a by elections, but maybe in the general two . Uh, well , general two . Uh, well, its a good question, tom. I dont know the answer to that question. Um, i mean, obviously you always get tactical voting in by elections. Thats been one of the tried and trusted methods in by trusted methods in in by elections. Uh, trusted methods in in by elections. Uh, i in elections. Uh, i mean, in general elections , it tends to general elections, it tends to be less so, but not but i think, uh, its not impossible that therell tactical voting and therell be tactical voting and therell be tactical voting and the voters are far the voters are voters are far more intelligent and sophisticated than many people. Give for. The give them credit for. And at the end of day, people vote for end of the day, people vote for what they the best outcome what they for the best outcome that they feel that they can achieve. And thats um, you achieve. And thats why, um, you know, be perfectly honest, if know, to be perfectly honest, if people labour people dont want a Labour Government, way government, the only way they can is by voting can avoid one is by voting conservative. Of conservative. And thats one of the key messages that we will no doubt the run up to doubt be making in the run up to the to the, the general the to the, to the general election that, you know, theres two ways of voting for a Labour Government wants vote Labour Government wants to vote labour and a 2019 and one is if youre a 2019 conservative by voting conservative voter by voting reform, theyre the ways reform, uh, theyre the two ways that got vote in in that youve got to vote in in effect, for Labour Government. And people want that, and if people dont want that, they conservative. They can only vote conservative. And are all the people and so these are all the people are used to making these sophisticated choices at elections. They and the public, elections. They and the public, you know, theyre more intelligent and sensible than many people give them credit for. And yet at an election where it looks like the incumbent Prime Minister will lose, perhaps that message that its either this guy or this guy thats going to be behind the door of downing street, perhaps thats a less pertinent one, and perhaps it leads to people to think, well, if the incumbent is going to lose anyway , i might as going to lose anyway, i might as well shop around. I might as well, uh, vote with frustration. Or perhaps even sit on my hands. Well whether its pertinent or to not you, its a fact. Nevertheless, there is only going to be one of two people, Prime Minister, after the general election. And thats either going to keir starmer either going to be keir starmer or rishi sunak. Thats just the thats just fact. Not thats just a fact. Thats not an opinion. Thats just a fact. Thats not an opinion. Um, and its up an opinion. Um, and so its up to people to make their mind up as who they would prefer to as to who they would prefer to see. Uh, behind the doors of number 10, they can they can make for make that decision for themselves. General themselves. Thats what general elections about. But elections are all about. But thats a fact. And the thats basically a fact. And the conservative party will only lose a general election if conservative voters dont vote conservative. Now philip, were looking at the kingswood count on our screens right now. It looks like the count is well and truly underway. Sorting of ballot papers on those tables. Uh, it is fascinating to look at how these by elections go. People working through the night to get these results. But to get these results. But generally, can we tell anything from what the candidates will be doing, what their agents will be pacing up and down and looking at us . Tell us a little bit about whats actually going on in rooms like this on Election Night. Well to be honest, tom, its always been a bit of a mystery to me too, because i have i have somebody in my association whos a great guy who can do a sample of the ballots when they first come out of boxes. Of the boxes. Uh, after a few and, uh, after a few mathematical equations means that doing. That hes capable of doing. And im can tell me im clearly not he can tell me within a few hundred what the result the election is going result of the election is going to be. And pretty sure all to be. And im pretty sure all of the parties have somebody like there, who will like that whos there, who will be able to tell after the be able to tell them after the first all been first boxes have all been opened . Much. Um you opened . Pretty much. Um you know, to the few hundred what the going to so the results going to be. So um, and what to do in and what i used to do in an Election Night waiting for Election Night is waiting for that call from that individual. And then making my way to the count. I mean, i, to be perfectly honest, i love watching the Election Night on the get to the telly, so i try and get to the telly, so i try and get to the late as possible. The counters late as possible. The tends to be thoroughly the count tends to be thoroughly boring, election boring, and the election coverage seems to coverage on the telly seems to be quite exciting. Philip, do youdo be quite exciting. Philip, do you do you be quite exciting. Philip, do youdo you mean to say that do you mean to say that in depth political conversation is more exciting is to some extent more exciting than watching piles than watching little piles of paper lower higher and paper get lower or higher and bundled different stacks, bundled into different stacks, watching you on the telly . Tom is more entertaining than virtually any activity i can think of, to be perfectly honest, but certainly more, more excited, more excited. Excited, more excited. Well, thats going in my twitter. Ill that as twitter bio. Ill take that as an accolade. Oh, fantastic. An accolade. Oh, fantastic. Tom, Everybody Knows it. Tom, Everybody Knows it. Everybody knows it. Everybody knows it. Well, Philip Davies, we will be back with you of course, again. But for now, conservative mp for shipley , thank you very mp for shipley, thank you very much for talking through that much for talking us through that process and indeed just how exciting these by Election Night programmes can be. But of course tonights by elections are not the only ones taking place this month. In two weeks time, rochdale will elect a new mp and as we said a little earlier when we mentioned the by election we have to mention the candidates who are the candidates, azhar ali is the Labour Party Candidate officially, although not by the party. Mark not endorsed by the party. Mark coleman, independent Simon Danczuk reform uk. Ian donaldson , liberal democrat paul ellison concern of George Galloway, Workers Party of britain Michael Howarth , independent william howarth, independent william howarth, independent william howarth, independent. Guy otten, green party. Raven, rodent green party. Raven, rodent suborder nr. Official Monster Raving Loony Party, fantastic and david tully, independent. Ah, well, weve got through that list. And dont we Love Television . An Election Television . An election regulations. Well, youre regulations. Well, youre watching and listening to gb news, leading the news tonight. Votes are being counted in two by elections tonight that represent the first tests for the main Political Parties of 2024. The year of the general election. Polling station staff election. Polling station staff are now emptying out the ballot boxes in wellingborough and northamptonshire and kingswood in South Gloucestershire. In South Gloucestershire. Labours National Campaign coordinator , pat mcfadden, says coordinator, pat mcfadden, says that although it will be some time before we know the official results, the party is making Real Progress in all corners of the country. Thats the assessment of the labour party. Gb news is up all night following the events for you and bringing you those live declarations together with expert analysis from midnight right through to breakfast, the government is facing questions tonight over its economic record after it emerged the uk entered after it emerged the uk entered a recession at the end of 2023. Official figures show that the economy shrank by 0. 3 in december and of course , that december and of course, that followed another quarter of contraction as well, meaning an official technical recession. But but were going to, of course, refer to those two counts that were looking at tonight. Were covering two tonight. Were covering two by election counts. Both wellingborough and kingswood. Were going to be with you through the night here on gb news. Britains election channel. And weve just heard from friend of gb news, Philip Davies , from what he thinks of davies, from what he thinks of his conservative party prospects. Now the kingswood by election was triggered after Chris Skidmore, a former conservative minister, quit parliament in protest at the governments green policy. Lets cross to green policy. Lets cross to Theo Chikomba our National Reporter who is in thornbury. For that count. And theo, how is for that count. And theo, how is it looking . How are those stacks it looking . How are those stacks of paper piling up . Of paper piling up . Yes, youre certainly right. Well, those stacks of paper are beginning to pile up now. Weve learnt in the last hour that 37 was the turnout just under 25,000 people casted their votes today in this by election for kingswood. We are in thornbury , kingswood. We are in thornbury, which is just a few miles away by the official count, is taking place here now. Of course, the seatis place here now. Of course, the seat is now vacant following Chris Skidmore leaving this position in the last couple of weeks and we are, of course, looking to see what the result is later this morning. Will it paint a picture for the upcoming general election . And that is general election . And that is something we are going to see later this morning. Now, we have later this morning. Now, we have been speaking to constituency or should i say members of the pubucin should i say members of the public in this constituency and this is what they had to say. A voice constituent see in a little bit, well dig them out. Our elves are searching for them and well bring them to the audience in a little bit. But lets, uh, also look at, well , lets, uh, also look at, well, canberra, of course, a place that i am familiar with myself. Well, the count im familiar with, its being counted in kettering. In fact , you can see kettering. In fact, you can see me there in 2014 as a student section manager of the count there in that very same counting hall, a sports hall where the kings where the wellingborough countis kings where the wellingborough count is , is taking place count is, is taking place tonight. So count is, is taking place tonight. So that was a perhaps where i started my political journey. There at the european parliamentary elections 2014, as a section count manager. Well there we go. Uh, i dont know, perhaps ive, ive put on some. Its ten years. That was ten years ago. Goodness me. But years ago. Goodness me. But remember, this is the vacant seat after peter bowen was found by parliament to have subjected a staff member to bullying and Sexual Misconduct. He has denied the allegations , but it led to the allegations, but it led to a recall petition in. And this by election lets cross to our east Midlands Reporter , will east Midlands Reporter, will hollis to northamptonshire, where that count is underway. Will how are the stacks of paper looking over where you are . Looking over where you are . Yes, tom. Well, lets take you on a bit of a trip down memory lane. This section up here is where the media are all the way for about ten 20m down here, you can see row and rows of cameras , plus the reporters of cameras, plus the reporters that are reporting into all sorts of different tv programmes. But then down here in the sports hall, which im told for a game of told is very good for a game of badminton, youve got a little army local people, people, army of local people, people, civic officers , businesses, all civic officers, businesses, all sorts of people from the local community that take the responsibility. Really quite pridefully to make sure that this count and democracy can go ahead without any problems. Now, thats not somewhere that we can go down and film , because this go down and film, because this has a secure count. Im told that the count hasnt actually started yet. They just sorting those ballot papers. Weve gone those ballot papers. Weve gone through verification and you can see the pulling them into piles for the different parties. And then theyre going to be going along and then the count will begin. Weve still got a few hours off until the declaration, so be watching our so well be watching our watchers very carefully. Just to give you a reminder, were not in wellingborough. Were about ten minutes down the road in nearby kettering. This is Northampton Shire and the wellingborough consortium. Kc. Wellingborough consortium. Kc. Since 2005 has been in the hands of the conservatives. Every year they increase their majority and in 2019 it was a very, very hefty majority of 18,500. Peter bowen had earned a lot of respect here from local people. By respect here from local people. By the way , that hed turned the by the way, that hed turned the constituency around. People said constituency around. People said he was the kind of guy to get things done, but quite recently we saw him booted out of the tory party. Those allegations coming in for Sexual Misconduct and bullying. And because of that, in investigation which found had committed found that he had committed those he was no longer those acts, he was no longer allowed to be a part of the party. Those acts were things that he denies. We might even see him popping in later because hes going to be supporting his partner, harrison , who is partner, Helen Harrison, who is the conservative candidate. What we might also see that will be quite interesting is to see how reform do, because this is where reform do, because this is where reform standing. Brexit reform is standing. Brexit party, which reform was born out of, they stood to the side in 2019. So that they could pave the way for boris to get brexit done this time. Are they going to do that . I think that judging to do that . I think that judging by what happened here tonight, if they get a pretty good share of the votes, it might set the pace for what might happen in the general election, which of course is expected by the end of the year. Whos likely to win it though . Well, all sources point towards labour having a successful by election we know that they can topple those tory majorities. Mid bedfordshire that was a 24,000 vote majority that was a 24,000 vote majority that they toppled and labour are in good minds that they can do it again here in wellingborough. It again here in wellingborough. Well, will hollis, thank you very much for the latest there from the count. Still sorting from the count. Still sorting those ballot papers before the countis those ballot papers before the count is underway. Its been three hours since poll polls have , but at least all have closed, but at least all those ballot papers are in and being sorted now will thank you very much for the very latest there. From the count, well. Of there. From the count, well. Of course, be popping back into both of these counts throughout the night, hopefully when the counting has actually begun as well. There is lots, lots to well. But there is lots, lots to talk about and im delighted to be joined back studio now talk about and im delighted to be mattd back studio now talk about and im delighted to be matt goodwin, studio now talk about and im delighted to be matt goodwin, the studio now talk about and im delighted to be matt goodwin, the pollster w by matt goodwin, the pollster and academic, and Stephen Pound, the labour of the former labour member of parliament, now, matt, were looking wellingborough parliament, now, matt, were looking its. Lingborough parliament, now, matt, were looking its. Li|brexity gh parliament, now, matt, were looking its. Li|brexity part parliament, now, matt, were lookinicountry. I|brexity part parliament, now, matt, were lookinicountry. Yeah,ity part parliament, now, matt, were lookinicountry. Yeah,ityvoted of the country. Yeah, it voted leave by 63. That was , uh, ten leave by 63. That was, uh, ten points above the National Vote or 11 points above the National Vote for leave. We should be looking really closely here at how the brexit how reform uk, formerly the brexit party, is performing. Yeah, thats right tom. So if you take the National Average for reform theyre currently averaging about 10 this week. So really reform needs to be polling above that to show that their real support on the ground is matching their their National Polling average at. And in an ideal world, be able to say to people, if anything, the polls are underestimating support. Now in a strong pro brexit seat like wellingborough, arguably they should be doing even better. They should be getting up to the 15, 16, 17 now. I followed ukip in in the early in an earlier era in the early 20105, in an earlier era in the early 2010s, and what you there 2010s, and what you saw there was slowly, from one by election to another, they started going from 5, 6. And when they started breaking into the double digit 5, breaking into the double digit s, there was the rotherham by election. The rotherham particularly, and quite and also eastleigh was quite important well. Important as well. Course they and then of course they started by elections. Started winning by elections. You rochester and you know the rochester and strood and so on. Strood by election. And so on. But to but what they projected to people was that they were a credible alternative to the big parties. Now reform havent done that. But the dream headline for richard tomorrow this richard tice tomorrow is this party is going somewhere. This party is going somewhere. This party is going somewhere. This party is outperforming its its National Average. So were looking. For perhaps 15, 16 as looking. For perhaps 15, 16 as a as a good result for reform uk. So i would say if reform come out of this with eight 9 its a disaster. Somethings fundamentally gone wrong with the party. If they come out in that 10 to 15 range, theyre going to able to say, right, going to be able to say, right, this is the best by election result theyve had much result that theyve had much better their previous peak better than their previous peak of theyre matching of 5. 7. And theyre matching their National Polling. If they inch even further up and they get into 15, 16, 17, then actually we you know, weve got some pretty good evidence here that things are going just one last stat today. Reform are taking 1 in 4 of the people who voted for Boris Johnson in 2019. What happens if that starts going up . What happens if they start getting up to, you know, uh , 40, 50, then actually rishi uh, 40, 50, then actually rishi sunak has got a really big problem. I think the key the key thing is if they can leapfrog the liberal democrats, i mean, that will be brilliant for them. Itll be absolutely toxic itll also be absolutely toxic for the liberal democrats. Pretty nailed on isnt that pretty nailed on in of seats . Because in both of these seats . Because weve been talking to one of those liberal democrat candidates this Program Candidates on this very program who shes who said, actually, shes not expecting a big lib dem vote. She theres a lot of she thinks theres a lot of tactical voting going on. The liberal democrats probably aligning party aligning with the labour party in isnt that in these seats. Isnt that megxit very, very easy to leapfrog expectation megxit very, very easy to leapfrog e isnt ation megxit very, very easy to leapfrog eisnt it . Yn management, isnt it . I mean, thats not the case. I mean, people are liberal democrats will vote liberal democrats, some will vote tactically. Didnt w tactically. of tactically. Ofthe didnt in tactically. Of the seatst in tactically. Of the seats that in tactically. Of the seats that that in some of the seats that that didnt happen in mid bedfordshire. No it didnt. Fact, was quite in fact, it was quite a surprise. But on the other hand, it was very healthy vote. But it was a very healthy vote. But im intrigued by, you know, young kettering. I mean, young tom in kettering. I mean, the idea your career. I mean, the idea of your career. I mean, i in rockingham road i remember in rockingham road when i came when for the football and i came back after the game and i see my car and i said, oh, car was there and i said, oh, good, the car is still there and there was somebody saying to me, course this isnt corby, course it is. This isnt corby, you know, mate. And i hadnt realised that the hatreds that existed northampton existed within Northampton Shire, mentioned that shire, you mentioned corby, that was by election was another great by election of the cameron era. Just lib dem yeah, just on the lib dem point its important point and, and its important because traditionally the lib dems the none of the above dems were the none of the above party. Now, what if richard tice was out tomorrow was able to come out tomorrow morning say good point. Morning and say good point. Well, the well, actually reform is now the third anti politics third party. The anti politics vote and you get a bit of a nudge from nigel farage. Weve already seen that yougov polling showing vote goes showing that reforms vote goes up points. Is up 3 or 4 points. If farage is leading party. You know, leading the party. So, you know, there there are things there there are there are things there that into play that i that can come into play that i think conservatives will be think the conservatives will be worried about. Though ultimately could it though ultimately isnt the biggest isnt perhaps the biggest confound for nigel confound factor for nigel farage . Fact that one of his farage . The fact that one of his best could very well be best mates could very well be about to become the president of the states, and does he the United States, and does he really want to be trudging around kingdom, around the United Kingdom, knocking in knocking on rainy doorsteps in november . Or would he rather be november . Or would he rather be in the house drinking in the white house drinking champagne and looking across the south lawn and thinking , im south lawn and thinking, im running world . No, no, hed running the world . No, no, hed be embassy. Be in the embassy. Hed the british embassy. Thats what he. You think hed be appointed . Because what nigel because remember what nigel farage said, i really farage said . He said, i really dont to spend every year dont want to spend every year in clacton, but lets. But. Having said that, but. Well, having said that, you serious you know, there is a serious question here, is how do question here, which is how do reform go from by elections and locals general locals into that general Election Campaign . Because i would are 10 to would say there are 10 to 15 seats coast of seats up the east coast of england, clacton being one of them. Boston, boston and skegness, another them. Boston, boston and skegmaybe another them. Boston, boston and skegmaybe great another them. Boston, boston and skegmaybe great grimsby,nother them. Boston, boston and skegmaybe great grimsby, where one, maybe great grimsby, where actually to actually reform are going to have to start to think about, okay, where going to okay, where are they going to focus resources focus their, their resources because said theres because theyve said theres going no with going to be no deal with the conservative deals are conservative says all deals are off, theyre for hartlepool. Its going to be their number one. And this is where things really start to get. Even if there are no formal deals. We saw in and its deals. We saw in 1997 and its been widely publicised in biographies fact, biographies after the fact, decades after the fact. There were the were in formal deals between the labour and the lib dems in labour party and the lib dems in 1997. Very 1997. We Wont Campaign very hard no one stood down hard here. No one stood down against each other, but they they where would put they agreed where they would put effort where they effort in and where they wouldnt effort where wouldnt put effort in, where the reform uk party concentrates its efforts really, really matters. Might there be being matters. Might there be being behind the scenes negotiations there . Uh there are always negotiations going on and i think there are lots of 2019 conservatives, lets say red wall conservatives who i think will be looking at their seats and thinking as a conservative, im going to lose this seat. Will they be tempted between now and the election, particularly after lets say, a decent by, um, by reform decent result by, um, by reform at these by elections, at some of these by elections, maybe the local elections will some people be some of those people start to be tempted to think about defecting . Are we going to go back to 2014, 2015 douglas carswell, mark reckless, are we going to start to conservatives start to see 2019 conservatives saying, well, going to lose saying, well, im going to lose this seat a tory, this red wall seat as a tory, why dont i just try my chances . Well, weve already seen that in derby. Weve actually seen a conservative sitting conservative mp cross the floor and become become labour. Sir i dont. Dont know. That was at the height of party. But i just say party. Yeah but can i just say one thing about these informal pacts. Mean, had i mean, when we had the tamworth beds tamworth and the mid beds by election, the idea was, you know, was supposed to be know, there was supposed to be an informal deal. Believe you me, theres me, there wasnt. And theres a huge United Kingdom huge part of the United Kingdom where parties loathe where the two parties loathe each with such an absolute each other with such an absolute fury. Obviously fury. Im talking obviously about scotland. I mean, there is not hells chance not a snowball in hells chance of any deals there. No, and its interesting because we can all sit back and sort of academically at sort of academically look at whats and say, well, whats going on and say, well, of course these votes going of course these votes are going to here. And, and you forget to go here. And, and you forget the personality issues that drive politics. And weve been talking in talking about factionalism in the conservative party. In the labour party, its often said the conservative party. In the labothearty, its often said the conservative party. In the labothe left its often said the conservative party. In the labothe left of s often said the conservative party. In the labothe left of the ten said the conservative party. In the labothe left of the labouri that the left of the labour party the party hate the right of the labour more than they hate labour party more than they hate the tories. I mean, theres certain i mean, theres a certain amount truth in that, and amount of truth in that, and i wouldnt normally but wouldnt normally admit it, but there that and theres that there is that and theres that group which one of group of people, which is one of the why im rather the reasons why im rather opposed proportional opposed to proportional representation, because i know very, fair points. Very, very, very fair points. Just very in um, just very finally, in this particular conversation, before we and we before we move on and we and we and with further and we check in with further areas , what is the biggest areas, what is the biggest parallel between this political time that were seeing today . And any period before in history . Because we are often talking about things that are unimpressive, dented . Well, i be keen to hear, um, to hear everybody elses thoughts, but i think there are lots of parallels with the 19705. Lots of parallels with the 1970s. Weve got industrial disputes, weve got low growth, sluggish economy. Weve also , to sluggish economy. Weve also, to be honest, not got leaders who are fully of are fully capable of understanding the depth of the problems and coming up with radical alternatives. Of course, a margaret a key difference is Margaret Thatcher wings as thatcher waiting in the wings as you earlier on. Well, who you said earlier on. Well, who is next Margaret Thatcher . Is the next Margaret Thatcher . Whos the next radical whos the next big radical leader different leader with a very different growth as we saw with growth strategy, as we saw with liz truss, know, and boris liz truss, you know, and Boris Johnson as country, were johnson as a country, were actually no longer really capable even thinking about capable of even thinking about radical ideas of the radical ideas outside of the box. We sort of shut them down and say, well, thats going to spook markets. Mean, who spook the markets. I mean, who is margaret of is the Margaret Thatcher of todays is the Margaret Thatcher of tod well, i know who the tories well, i know who the tories would claim that, sir Margaret Thatcher, know kemi thatcher, we all know its kemi badenoch. Look, i mean, in badenoch. But look, i mean, in terms of a major realignment, i mean, of mean, i was thinking of sort of the peelite conservatives the the peelite conservatives in the 18405 labour in 1924, 18405 and, and labour in 1924, and the strange and things like the strange death england. But death of liberal england. But i think back to a point i made think get back to a point i made earlier on. Were in a completely different Political Landscape where old landscape now where the old loyalties dad loyalties, you know, my dad voted i vote labour, voted labour, i vote labour, its gone, its finished, its gone. Weve got very, very promiscuous voters the promiscuous voters across the board, parties. Board, different parties. I never my constituents never called my constituents promiscuous have promiscuous because i would have got well, Stephen Pound, got a slap. Well, Stephen Pound, matt goodwin, we will back matt goodwin, we will be back with you. Of course, throughout the programme. But, lets the programme. But, uh, lets uh, of course, also talk uh, uh, of course, also talk about those who will be hearing from a little later and from a little bit later and widdecombe, Jacob Rees Mogg, nigel farage be in the nigel farage will be in the building and the reform party leader, richard tice, whos at the in wellingborough. But the count in wellingborough. But joining is george eaton, joining me now is george eaton, the senior online editor of the new statesman and of course, the new statesman and of course, the new statesman. George is , uh, i new statesman. George is, uh, i think its fair to say a labour leaning publication in, uh, how will the labour party be feeling about tonight . Id say they are about tonight . Id say they are quietly confident that they will win both. Wellingborough. Uh big tory majority of over 18,000 and also kingswood , a smaller tory kingswood, a smaller tory majority of just over 11,000. Uh Party Sources are saying they had a strong final week in wellingborough with lots of, uh, dont knows and former tories , dont knows and former tories, uh, coming over to the party now in some senses its not a surprise if they, they win wellingborough, even though its um, its Something Like 224th on their target seat list because at the moment in the National Opinion polls, they have leads as big as 20. But i think the key point politically is this. This has been one of the worst weeks of Keir Starmers leadership. Theyve had to suspend not one but two parliamentary candidates. Youve parliamentary candidates. Youve had briefing against his chief of staff, sue gray theyve had the recent u turn over 28 billion. But im reminded of the napoleon quote, which is id rather have lucky generals than good ones. Heres starmer has consistently been a lucky general. Uh, he was lucky with bofis general. Uh, he was lucky with Boris Johnson and partygate. He was lucky with, um, liz truss and the economic turmoil he unleashed. And hes been lucky with all of the by elections , with all of the by elections, um, triggered by conservatives. Um, triggered by conservatives. If the conservatives lose both seats tonight, theyll have lost ten. Uh, over this parliament, which is the most of any governing party since 1966 to 1970. It will allow labour to, uh, draw something of a line under the troubles of, of this week and regain some momentum , week and regain some momentum, though of course we have the rochdale by election. Uh, in two weeks time. Uh , youre talking of lucky uh, youre talking of lucky generals. Generals. I mean, wasnt it just stupendously lucky for the labour party that this morning we had published economic figures, figures from last year that had the 0. 3 below the line. Instead of above the line. Of course, a relatively flat lining economy, but very lucky that on the morning of polling day , the all of the news website day, the all of the news website , its headlines were recession. In that was very helpful. Um, that was very helpful. Um, not just for the by elections , not just for the by elections, but looking ahead to the budget on on march the sixth, which the tories hoped to use as a reset moment in recent weeks, rishi sunak has been talking up the economy, talking up the prospect of tax cuts. Now now, given the economic backdrop and worse than expected forecasts from the obr, jeremy hunts, looking to talk down tax cuts and even though this by historic standards is set to be a mild recession, its of huge political significance and of course, if you dig into the data and look at the figures on gdp per capita, gdp per person , thats the best measure person, thats the best measure of how the economy feels for actual people in terms of living standards. They are very poor. So its not really a surprise that labour will pose the reagan question at the general election. Do you feel worse off or better off than you did five years ago . And most people probably say worse off, which puts labour in a strong position and the conservatives in a very weak one. Yeah. No, i think thats an absolute fair analysis. But what the conservative say , the conservative party will say, uh, later this morning, on uh, later on this morning, on friday morning is the same thing that they said after the tamworth by election and after the mid bedfordshire by election, that if you look at the turnout and the absolute number of votes, its very unlikely the labour vote will have grown in absolute terms. Have grown in absolute terms. The percentage will be a lot higher than it was, but what the conservatives might argue is this is simply a result of a lot of tories staying at home. Yes , um, to turnout as yes, um, to turnout as always, lower in by elections. Always, lower in by elections. Uh, labour themselves would say by elections, polls at this point they dont mean they dont mean everything. They dont mean a huge amount. Ultimately uh, you do see big swings. Uh, you see governing parties recover. I think the problem for the conservatives at the moment is that if you look at the historic trend normally by this point, the governing party has already started narrow the advantage. Started to narrow the advantage. And lets not forget, turnout was low in 97. It was low in 2001. Its pretty low in 2005, labour won majorities in all of those elections. Now there are some in labour who will fairly openly say part of our job is actually persuading tories that they dont have to disillusion tories, that they dont have to rush out to vote for the government because theyre scared about labour. Um, part of labours strategy has been to de risk the party, uh, to elect a leader in keir starmer, who is not hugely popular by historic standards but who doesnt scare many voters , who certainly less many voters, who certainly less scary to a lot of tories than than Jeremy Corbyn was, or even ed miliband. So labour would be ed miliband. So labour would be very happy with a low turnout election in which they still they get their first majority since 2005. Yeah a lot of people forget that. It was actually john major who got more raw votes than tony blair ever got. Uh, so sometimes blair ever got. Uh, so sometimes it is actually simply the fact of, of concern of voters staying home that really does matter, not just in by elections but also in general elections. Two i wonder, though , though from a wonder, though, though from a labour Party Perspective , lviv labour Party Perspective, lviv is there not a huge amount of worry here that this is a bit of a poisoned chalice . We look not just at the United Kingdom now in a technical recession, but our neighbours are on the island of ireland. The republic is also in recession. The netherlands is in recession. The netherlands is in recession. The netherlands is in recession. Germany has had massive Economic Contraction and it is predicted to continue Economic Contraction into next year as well. Well were predicted to have some growth at least, although low growth right across europe were seeing sclerotic growth living standards, not improving. Frankly the labour party is going to have a very hard job turning it around, if it even is possible. Possible. Absolutely. Look labour are very clear. Theyre going to have one of the worst inheritances of any post war government. If you look at the International Landscape at the moment, as you say, you see all the centre left parties that have taken power recently in australia , the us, theyre australia, the us, theyre theyre struggling. So that doesnt that doesnt bode well. Where i think they have an advantage is they could surprise on the upside, uh, the resolution foundation, uh, think tank says the uk has a lot of catch up potential at the moment. Since 2019, its been the worst performing performing economy apart from germany. So if labour do, for instance, enact radical planning reform , enact radical planning reform, if they do invest more in infrastructure , if they boost infrastructure, if they boost Business Confidence , they offer Business Confidence, they offer a more stable environment for investors that may have quite quick results and expectations may be so low that they surprise on the upside. But as you say, we live in an age where our incumbent governments tend to be unpopular by historic standards. Theyre very clear this is not going to be a 1997 moment when there was a sense of euphoria, when the economy was, uh, growing strong , when the west growing strong, when the west was in the middle, really, of a prolonged economic boom , much prolonged economic boom, much more like the 1970s. But george eaton, were going to have to leave it there. Senior online editor of the new statesman. Really appreciate your time and your thoughts. Were cross now the were going to cross now to the leader reform richard leader of reform uk, richard tice, who is at the wellingborough count in northampton , where richard tice northampton, where richard tice your party needs to do well tonight in wellingborough your party is polling ten, 11, 12 points nationally, but wellingborough is a brexit voting area. 63 leave really , voting area. 63 leave really, your party needs to be getting much , much higher than your much, much higher than your National Polling results. Surely i well, 5mm well, tom, good evening. And from the early indications weve got here in wellingborough , got here in wellingborough, were delighted were going to have our best ever by election result by a considerable margin. Were getting similar indications. Runs down in indications. Runs down in kingswood ward, which is a very different type of constituency. And look, the message is that were the party thats on the up. There are a huge number of very dissatisfaction and dismay died. Conservative voters. And died. Conservative voters. And so yeah, were delighted that were going to essentially for the first time, equal or beat our National Polling average. Thats really important. And were making great progress. We havent been in wellingborough for very long. Obviously, the tories have been here for decades and decades , as have the decades and decades, as have the labour party, who in fairness to them, credits run them, all credits have run a very campaign here. Very Successful Campaign here. Equal or beat. So thats a prediction of at least double digits. Can i get you. Can i digits. Can i get you. Can i squeeze out of you . Can i tease out of you any greater specifics for expectations . Its a touch for expectations . Its a touch too early, tom, but rest assured, as and when weve got that a little bit more detail, well give that to you soonest. But the indication is, are that in both of them were going to be give or take around our National Polling averages. Maybe slightly better. It depends. You know, your polls bounce around. But for us. This but look, this is for us. This is great progress in a very Short Campaign period. And as Short Campaign period. And as i say, were the party on the up. More and more people have heard of us. It takes time to build a brand, but so far so good. Its early indications, as i say , but early indications, as i say, but were very pleased with what were very pleased with what were hearing and seeing on the on the tables, on the counting tables behind me. Do you regret the rebrand . Do you regret changing the name from the brexit party, which had such high name recognition and right across the country to a name that has been, lets face it, a struggle to cut through with voters. Yeah but actually, tom, weve now got the best of both worlds because on our logo weve got reform uk and weve got the brexit party. And of course we look at all these things, but the name reform now is being recognised up down the country. And up and down the country. And heres does what heres the point. It does what it the tin. And today , it says on the tin. And today, as tom, youve been as you know, tom, youve been talking about it. Were in recession. Said at a press recession. I said at a press conference on the 3rd of january, you cannot grow an economy burdens of the economy with the burdens of the highest record levels highest taxation record levels of very often wasteful government spending, nanny state regulations that this government hasnt taken advantage of brexit to get rid of mass immigration, low skilled immigration, and also the huge multi trillion cost of net zero. You cant grow an economy on that. Your previous commentator was just referred to labours challenge to grow the economy. I would refer you back to america growing at 3 at the moment. Why because theyve got cheap energy. Theyve got smarter regulations. They havent got a big nanny state and compound growth is absolutely critical. And thats why well be putting forward our plans to get this country growing again, because otherwise , frankly, after the otherwise, frankly, after the tories have broken britain, labour will bankrupt britain. Labour will bankrupt britain. Its a compelling message and youre right to talk about the cheap level of energy, particularly in the United States of america. But frankly , states of america. But frankly, with this message, why are you only looking at this party, at the reform party at ten, 11, 12 points in the polls . Surely if the tories and the labour party are so, so useless and the British Public wants to turn away from them, youd be polling higher. Higher. Well, everybody talks a good game and it takes time for, you know , for people to recognise know, for people to recognise what is going on here. I think people have been hoping that rishi sunak is sort of much vaunted plan. Hes been telling vaunted plan. Hes been telling us the plan is working. He said that on gb news last monday, he said the plan is working well. Its clearly not working. Weve got the data actually. Its doing the opposite. Its failing. Significantly and. Its failing significantly and if look at gdp per head , if you look at gdp per head, its worse than the overall its even worse than the overall numbers, which have the benefit of mass immigration. So were just telling it as it is sometimes that message can be a little bit challenging and uncomfortable for people , but i uncomfortable for people, but i absolutely know that that were right. You cannot grow an economy with these huge burdens. Economy with these huge burdens. And when people wake up to that , and when people wake up to that, i think theyll say, well, reform uk, theyve constantly said whats really going on and people say, weve got to change. Well richard tice, we heard it here exclusively from you. Youre expecting double digits tonight and the best ever reform uk by election performance. Well see if that performance. Well see if that holds true as these votes are getting counted in northamptonshire. Thanks for your time , richard. Well, were your time, richard. Well, were going to go back to the kingswood count now where im joined by the senior conservative mp and gb news presenter, sirJacob Rees Mogg. Presenter, sir Jacob Rees Mogg. Now, sirjacob, presenter, sir Jacob Rees Mogg. Now, sir jacob, lets presenter, sir Jacob Rees Mogg. Now, sirjacob, lets. Be blunt, now, sirjacob, lets. Be blunt, things arent looking good for the conservatives in kingswood. The conservatives in kingswood. Sorry, i didnt quite hear that my earpiece fell out of my ear as you were talking. Oh it sometimes happens, jacob. It sometimes happens. Im just trying to be blunt with you. Things arent looking good for the conservatives in kingswood, but i asked. Kingswood, but i asked. Well, well have to wait and see. I mean, its silly to make predictions when were quite so close to the result, and you can see theyre making announcements, can hear announcements, you can hear probably in the background. Theyre as theyre making announcements as we speak. To get a sense of im trying to get a sense of what the campaign has been like in part of the world, in this part of the world, because as as i can see, the because as far as i can see, the conservative candidate, sam bromley , has been talking about bromley, has been talking about a Housing Development of 5000 houses and his steadfast opposition to it, and pretty much nothing else. Much nothing else. Well , much nothing else. Well, sams been absolutely excellent candid. Hes worked terrifically hard. Hes a local councillor and hes been making the point that there is proposed building on the green belt, which is not being stopped by the labour mayor of wahaca, the west of england combined authority, or by the non conservative combo of the lib dems and labour, who are in control of the South Gloucestershire council. And hes arguing the case for his local constituents , the people local constituents, the people he seeks to represent. And i think thats very impressive. And hes fought a very good, energetic campaign. Energetic campaign. Football prospectus isnt it, jacob, on the on the day that we hear that the United Kingdom has supped hear that the United Kingdom has slipped into recession , the slipped into recession, the Great Campaign of hope from the conservatives is stopping development, is stopping growth. Development, is stopping growth. Well, this is green belt. The green belt is different. There are plenty of places where you can have development, as michael gove and rishi sunak have been speaking about in the last week without making bristol spill over into the rural areas, over into the more rural areas, the developed areas of the less developed areas of South Gloucestershire. What will it say if the labour party romp home in kingswood this evening . Kingswood this evening . Its very difficult to know that if you look at by elections between 1987 and 1992, the conservatives proceeded to win every single one of them. Back at the general election in 1992, in spite of some pretty heavy losses in that period. If you look at by elections, 92 to 97, i think the only one we won back was christchurch with christopher chope. So its very hard to tell in advance of a general election what by elections mean. So ill probably elections mean. So ill probably be to you later on be able to tell you later on this year. And course, theres the and of course, theres the example brecon and example of brecon and radnorshire, was in radnorshire, which was lost in 2019, only to be won back the 2019, only to be won back at the end the conservative end of 2019 by the conservative party. It does seem that party. But it does seem that theres an extraordinary , theres been an extraordinary, uh, of by elections now, uh, string of by elections now, bigger swings from the conservatives to the labour party than weve seen in history i but go back to orpington in the 1960s and you see that by elections are sometimes important there, sometimes straws in the wind, sometimes they are merely an opportunity for people to protest or not turn out to vote. And the turnouts in both kingswood and in wellingborough have been quite low , 37, i understand in kingswood. Yeah. Well i mean this is yeah. Well i mean this is this is fairly regular for by elections, these, these sorts of turnouts. We saw the same in tamworth, 36 mid bedfordshire a little bit higher, 44, none of them breaching 50. I just wonder, have we reached a sort of new calibration in the way that we look at these by elections, looking at an 18,540 majority as we are in wellingborough , or an over wellingborough, or an over 11,000 majority as we are in kingswood and thinking, well, the labour party could well take these. Its almost run of the mill that it might. Thats a different paradigm to the way that we thought about politics. Even ago. Even two years ago. But but is it . I mean, i but but is it . I mean, i think if you look back at elections, when Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister in by elections, there was a steady stream of by elections that we lost when Shirley Williams won a safe conservative seat , um, in safe conservative seat, um, in whatever it was, 1982. And that that was seen to be sounding the death knell of the conservative party in 1983, we won with a majority of over 140 by elections, have in recent decades, not just in recent years, been an opportunity for people to beat a government without there being the consequence of a change of government. And the thing i found on the doorstep in kingswood was people saying that they didnt want to vote if they were conservative, that they were conservative, that they were not excited by what the conservatives were doing. And crucially , they didnt think the crucially, they didnt think the by election was necessary. One by election was necessary. One constituent to me that she constituent said to me that she thought that Chris Skidmore should pay the quarter of £1 million personally for the by election creating it by election by creating it unnecessarily , probably be able unnecessarily, probably be able to pay it whether he will want to pay it whether he will want to or not. I dont know how many jobs hes got lined up in his post mp career , but jacob, are you career, but jacob, are you trying to say that there are no lessons learn from these lessons to learn from these by elections . Would have elections . Or would you have a message for the Prime Minister about how he can things, about how he can change things, about how he can change things, about can improve things about how he can improve things for party . For his party . Well, you should always listen to the voters. If voters arent voting for you, you have to ask why . Why are we not inspiring conservatives to turn out vote in these out and vote in these circumstances . What is it . When you look back to Margaret Thatcher, you could see that she was doing things that were unpopular but necessary, she unpopular but necessary, and she needed to get them done. They were essential for the benefit of but they werent of the country, but they werent going to be, leading to people cheering as cheering from the rooftops as they the they were implemented. The question us now is what question for us now is what should our message to conservatives it true conservatives be . Is it true that the economy is picking up . And i happen that it and i happen to think that it probably i think the bank of probably is. I think the bank of england things back. Probably is. I think the bank of eninf1d things back. Probably is. I think the bank of eninf interest things back. Probably is. I think the bank of eninf Interest Ratesthings back. Probably is. I think the bank of eninf Interest Rates are gs back. Probably is. I think the bank of eninf Interest Rates are going k. But if Interest Rates are going to come Mortgage Rates to come down, Mortgage Rates coming can some coming down, if we can have some tax cuts, if we can keep control of public expenditure, theres an opportunity for economic of public expenditure, theres an oppotheresfor economic of public expenditure, theres an oppotheres an economic of public expenditure, theres an oppotheres an opportunity growth, theres an opportunity to things that our to do things that our conservative voters expect and would be inspired by. There you go, rishi well, there you go, rishi sunak. If youre listening, thats your thats your prospectus. Your menu to prospectus. Thats your menu to pick so Jacob Rees Mogg , pick from. So Jacob Rees Mogg, thank you very much for your time. This aukus. Suppose we time. This aukus. I suppose we should morning at the should say this morning at the countin should say this morning at the count in kingswood really appreciate it. Appreciate it. Well, lets get back to that wellingborough count now as the labour mp for chesterfield shadow environment. Shadow environment. Shadow environment minister toby perkins joins us, who has also been running a senior role in this campaign , on toby in this campaign, on toby perkins. How in this campaign, on toby perkins. How is it looking for you tonight at the labour party seems fairly confident. Seems fairly confident. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Oh, i believe we might need to establish a bit of a better line to you, toby perkins. Just hold for on one second. We have our studio guests with us. Matt goodwin and indeed, Stephen Pound. Goodwin and indeed, Stephen Pound. Uh, still with us, but, pound. Uh, still with us, but, uh, stephen, we were about to talk to, uh , toby perkins. Of talk to, uh, toby perkins. Of course , who . You sat on the course, who . You sat on the green benches with. Toby was a goalkeeper in our parliamentary football team. Well, theres a fact he was a very, very good goalkeeper , but very, very good goalkeeper, but its interesting talking about Jacob Rees Mogg there you see, kingswood three ways. Kingswood splits three ways. Lot goes into the new a lot of it goes into the new North East Bristol constituency. A it into jacobs a chunk of it goes into jacobs constituency. So hes got some skin here, but skin in the game here, but i think the interesting think one of the interesting things came up earlier on things that came up earlier on was talking about american growth. The motor growth. I mean, the real motor for growth america is for engine growth in america is the inflation the thing called the inflation reduction act. Rather unfortunately the ira, unfortunately known as the ira, where they actually borrowed trillions to actually stimulate and boost the economy. And its working. Stephen im being told that we do have a line to toby perkins. So lets see if we can give this another go. Of course, live from that wellingborough count toby perkins is the labour party looking confident of winning this seat at. Well, i think we are increasingly optimistic if weve had a great day, our candidates been really positively received on the doorsteps. Weve had a incredibly positive campaign. I think right the way through. And think right the way through. And so, you know, whilst we dont like to do a lap of honour until the race is run, were feeling increasingly hopeful that were going to come up with something really seismic today , which i really seismic today, which i suspect will send shockwaves through the conservative party and will give us real cause for optimism. Optimism. So what does it say , then, if so what does it say, then, if you winning these huge, you keep winning these huge, huge by election victories . Should people really not believe your leadership when it says when it seems almost coy about winning the next election . Youve got this in the bag. Surely well , no, i actually surely well, no, i actually dont think we do. We know by elections, and general elections arent the same thing. And whilst theres a real thirst for change, theres, i think a widespread view that this government is failing. We this government is failing. We know that for an opposition to win is always a difficult thing. And so we dont take anything for granted in terms of that. Were really encouraged that weve had a fresh hearing here in northamptonshire. It gives us in northamptonshire. It gives us tremendous confidence that people want to listen to labour party again. But does that mean that theyve already concluded what the results of the next general election is . Absolutely not. No. Weve got a lot more work to do and of tomorrow, work to do and as of tomorrow, well on with doing it. Well get on with doing it. How do feel about the how do you feel about the candidacy of reform uk, particularly in wellingborough . Theyve had a very visual, very vocal presence in this seat. You must have been pretty happy with that. Must have been pretty happy with that. Well i mean, i think for that. Well i mean, i think for the sake of democracy its good that you have different parties giving people different options. Giving people different options. But i think the idea that everyone who voted reform would otherwise have voted conservative is for the birds. Conservative is for the birds. You know, there were many voters here who had already decided they werent going to vote conservative, wanted to send rishi message and there rishi sunak a message and there were different ways of doing that. And some of them voted the labour of them voted that. And some of them voted the labreform of them voted that. And some of them voted the labreform , of them voted that. And some of them voted the labreform , some of them voted that. And some of them voted the labreform , some of if them voted that. And some of them voted the labreform , some of themn voted that. And some of them voted the labreform , some of them votedd for reform, some of them voted for reform, some of them voted for other parties , and some for other parties, and some didnt at all. But, you didnt vote at all. But, you know, absolutely is not the case that if reform hadnt stood, then you could have just picked all those votes up put them all those votes up and put them in the conservative box. Not at all. Now, a lot of Labour Party Politicians in 2010 would be talking about the Global Financial and the Global Financial crisis and the global headwinds that britain was facing. Yet today, or rather, facing. Yet today, or rather, yesterday, we heard, uh, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves say that this recession that the United Kingdom is currently in is rishis recession. You cant have it both ways, can you . It cant be a Global Financial crisis. Back at the 2010 election, and now its only britain. Uh, surely what the conservatives say has some merit is that this is a global economic. Storm. Economic. Storm. Well, i mean , you know, weve well, i mean, you know, weve all heard tories, um, for many, many years trying to blame the labour party for, uh , the, the labour party for, uh, the, the global recession that happened in the 2000. But i think when you look at what happened to the state of mortgages and the state of our economy following liz trusss disastrous budget , um, trusss disastrous budget, um, its very reasonable to plant that the floor of the conservative and now weve rishi sunak said that once he got in, we would see growth in the economy, that hed got the economy, that hed got the economy sorted and so when we go into recession , then after hes into recession, then after hes sort of ignored the advice of both the labour party and many independent, uh, economic advisers, i think its perfectly reasonable that the person who was trying to take the credit for what he saw as the returning strength in the economy should also take the blame for his entering into recession. But actually, whats most important for voters here in wellingborough isnt just about whether were technically in recession or not, its actually the experience they have in their at the end of their pockets at the end of every month when they find theyre running of money, theyre running out of money, when that mortgage when they see that the Mortgage Rate gone through the roof, rate has gone through the roof, when they see the failure on Energy Prices and the record profits of Gas Companies , at the profits of Gas Companies, at the same time that peoples bills are higher than they are in other countries, thats the recession that they experienced day in, day out. And thats , i day in, day out. And thats, i think, why rishi sunak has a lot of questions answer. Of questions to answer. Toby perkins , i must well, toby perkins, i must finally ask one question on finally ask you one question on not the two by elections today, but the one were expecting in two weeks time. Um, its fairly two weeks time. Um, its fairly embarrassing for your party that you dont endorse a single candidate on that list. What what on earth went wrong with the vetting procedures . Well the vetting procedures . Well i mean, its heartbreaking that we havent got a candidate in that by election uh, rochdale is an incredibly important town to the labour party. And, you know, it was party. And, you know, it was a Massive Decision for keir starmer to say that as our euanne starmer to say that as our elianne had lost the support of the labour party, i actually , the labour party, i actually, you know, what was said wasnt known at the time. Weve got the most stringent vetting that weve ever had at any point, and im really confident about that. But the comments that were made by azhar ali were unacceptable. And so keir starmer decisively said , you know, despite the huge said, you know, despite the huge cost to the party that action had to be taken and i absolutely support him in doing that decisively. Only after further comments were revealed by the daily mail. Were revealed by the daily mail. But toby perkins, thank you for your time. Really appreciate it. Your time. Really appreciate it. And and well well be looking forward to seeing how your party does uh, in the wellingborough count. Thank you. Now joining us on the at the desk at the news desk here overnight is the head of public of policy and Public Affairs at opinion research, james crouch. Former labour mp james crouch. Former labour mp Stephen Pound and professor of politics at the university of kent matt goodwin , james what do kent matt goodwin, james what do we make of what toby perkins was saying there . Did the labour party need to be so coy about the next election somehow being close . Close . Well, i dont think you can ever really completely count the votes until they are actually counted. So theres no reason counted. So theres no reason why we should expect that labour will have to have a lead this size. I think their big problem theyll be worried about is not that that theyre going to lose next election , but more that next election, but more that that lead is going to whittle down slowly and slowly and suddenly well be questioning whether labour is going to have a majority of 60 majority of ten, maybe majority at all. Ten, maybe not majority at all. Um, up until, uh, the snps problems, the rough rule of thumb, i was always working with was that labour might get to maybe 310, 320in england, and then the majority will be composed of every single seat they win in scotland. That might not be the case now, but that was the territory were in not that ago. So i dont blame that long ago. So i dont blame them for being a little bit coy. Its fascinating that you mentioned scotland and speaking to members to scottish conservative members of parliament over the last few weeks, they they seem much, much more happy than english or welsh conservative mps at this point in time. Even the ones with very slim majorities. It seems like scottish tories , sitting on scottish tories, sitting on majorities of the low thousands , majorities of the low thousands, are happier than english tories sitting on 20,000 majorities. Why is that . Why is that . Well, it wont be the first time that the kind of voting patterns are going to be very different in scotland to england. But what youve got is a situation now where the snp is the only competitor to labour in all of its seats, and also the only competitor to the conservatives in all of theirs. So when you have the snp tanking in the polls, even if thats more focussed in the central belt and not necessarily in those places that the conservatives are up against the snp , theyll be pretty happy. In snp, theyll be pretty happy. In fact , we did snp, theyll be pretty happy. In fact, we did some marginal polling where we found that the snp and the conservatives were falling at almost the same rate. Falling at almost the same rate. If case, the if thats the case, the conservative hold seats. That is fascinating. So whilst the conservatives in england on current polling might be losing seats of 20,000 majorities, conservative scottish conservative mps with a majority of maybe even just 1000 could hold their seats. Its could hold their seats. Its really, really interesting stuff. Lets turn this to matt goodwin. In the different areas goodwin. In the different areas of the country. During an election are always showing different stories. Regional variation as its often called. Were seeing two results tonight in two different areas of the country. Yeah, in the east midlands and in the, uh , wheres midlands and in the, uh, wheres wheres kingswood in the Greater Bristol area . Um, its the eastern suburb of bristol trying to think of one of the 12 regions that it might sit in, but thats going back to perhaps too much eu organisation. Um, is there, is there a big, big difference between how these two seats act . Um, well , two seats act . Um, well, were about to find out tonight, but i think, you know whats interesting demographically, i think theyre not too, too far apart. Theyre not too, too far apart. Theyre both seats, as weve both pro brexit seats, as weve mentioned and, you know, mentioned. And, um, you know, theyre both conservative held seats currently. You know, seats currently. So, you know, there some there are there are some similarities. I think probably what sunak will be doing is what team sunak will be doing is taking all of the by elections that have happened time and that have happened this time and trying guesstimate, firstly , trying to guesstimate, firstly, is the conservative vote holding up better in some areas than others . Also, the degree others . Also, what is the degree of voting between of tactical voting between laboun of tactical voting between labour, dem and green labour, lib dem and green voters . Think thats to voters . I think thats going to be also , you know, what be key. And also, you know, what are areas , what are these are the areas, what are these byelections saying about their forthcoming election forthcoming general Election Strategy . Because, you know, the assumption , i would think in assumption, i would think in number is theyre going to number 10 is theyre going to get smashed in london, theyre going smashed in the going to get smashed in the university towns, going going to get smashed in the unget sity towns, going going to get smashed in the unget chased ns, going going to get smashed in the unget chased out going going to get smashed in the unget chased out of going going to get smashed in the unget chased out of the going to get chased out of the commuter around london, and commuter belt around london, and theyre have pretty theyre going to have a pretty brutal time in scotland, i would imagine. Leaves imagine. So that leaves non london right . Non london england, right . Non london england, right . Non london england. And non london non city england. And to win that part of the country , to win that part of the country, you really needed to have leaned into the post brexit realignment because thats full of working class voters. Non grammar states and older voters. Now, whats rishi sunak got to say to those voters . Well, we were in, um, darlington earlier this week where he was pitching to the undecided 100. Undecided voters with and at the end of with gb news and at the end of that, we saw half of those undecided voters say theyd vote conservative. But the rest, of course, theyd for course, said theyd vote for another maybe reform, another party. Maybe reform, or theyd labour theyd vote for the labour party. This is sunaks party. So this is sunaks problem, know, getting problem, you know, hes getting hit flanks the same hit on three flanks at the same time. Number going to time. Small number going to laboun time. Small number going to labour, slightly bigger number going reform and bigger going to reform and even bigger going to reform and even bigger going apathy. You know. So going into apathy. You know. So hes got hes got to somehow deal this this assault on deal with this this assault on three flanks. Now im being told that the announcement imminent at announcement is imminent at kingswood. Lets listen in the declaration of the kingswood by John Mccormick , the acting John Mccormick, the acting returning officer , that the returning officer, that the election for the kingswood constituency give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate is as follows sammy null carl bromley commonly known as sam bromley , the known as sam bromley, the conservative Party Candidate. Conservative Party Candidate. 8675 Andrew Charles brown , 8675 Andrew Charles brown, liberal democrats. 861 damian liberal democrats. 861 damian james egan, commonly known as damian egan, labour party. Damian egan, labour party. 11,170. That. Was 11,176. That. Was 11,176. Labuschagne. Antoinette Francis Green party. 1450. Rupert green party. 1450. Rupert james Graeme Le Saux reform uk, 2578. Yes. Nicholas david, would you yes. Nicholas david, would you kip people not. Politics 129. Kip people not. Politics 129. The number of ballot papers rejected was follows. Want of an rejected was follows. Want of an official mark zero voting for more than one candidate , 39 more than one candidate, 39 writing or mark by which the voter could be identified. One unmarked or void for uncertainty 22 two. Giving a total of 36 rejected ballot papers. The rejected ballot papers. The turnout figure across the constituency was 37. 11. I and i do hereby declare that damian eganis do hereby declare that damian egan is duly elected. Thank you i well, thank you all very much. Thank you to the returning officer and the team of people here. And across the constituency who have been counting the ballots , making counting the ballots, making sure all the election today ran fairly and ran smoothly. So fairly and ran smoothly. So thank you to everybody. Um, some thank you to everybody. Um, some personal thank yous. Id like to say thank you to my husband. Id like to say thank you to my mum. My sisters, my family have been there every step of the campaign. Been there every step of the campaign. Id like to been there every step of the campaign. Id like to say thank campaign. Id like to say thank you to my agent haley, to chris. Siobhan, to all the fabulous labour team that we have had of activist and volunteers who have pounded the streets in all weathers over the last week. So weathers over the last week. So thank you. Um, most of all, though, id like to say thank you to the residents and people of kingswood. Your honesty and of kingswood. Your honesty and your frankness has has helped keep my campaign rooted in the issues that are really impacting our community. The cost of living crisis , safety on our living crisis, safety on our streets and the nhs. Thank you streets and the nhs. Thank you for giving me your trust and for allowing me to serve the community that im from. Its community that im from. Its a trust that i promise to repay to show you that politics can be different, and that it can make a difference. In kingswood , as a difference. In kingswood, as across the country , 14 years of across the country, 14 years of conservative government have sucked the hope out of our country. See, there is a feeling country. See, there is a feeling that no matter how hard you work, you just cant afford , and work, you just cant afford, and that with rishis recession , that with rishis recession, were left again paying more and getting less. It doesnt have to getting less. It doesnt have to be this way. You know it, i know be this way. You know it, i know it. We all know it. And when the it. We all know it. And when the Prime Minister finally finds the courage to give the people a say , were going to need each and every one of you again to come out and vote and make sure your voices are heard. Our country is voices are heard. Our country is at a crossroad , as under the at a crossroad, as under the conservatives we can choose more managed decline , more chaos, managed decline, more chaos, more division or we can choose a changed labor party, a government that will put people first, that ensures a childs background is not a barrier to their future , and that well their future, and that well rebuild great britain. The work rebuild great britain. The work to give kingswood its future back starts now. And thank you back starts now. And thank you again to everybody for all your support. Thank you. There we have it. That is daymore john egan, the Labour Party Candidate giving his victory speech there at the kings wood by election countin at the kings wood by election count in thornbury. At the kings wood by election count in thornbury. Uh, he, of count in thornbury. Uh, he, of course, received. 11, 1176 votes course, received. 11, 1176 votes that represent its. 44. 9 of that represent its. 44. 9 of the vote. Thats ahead of the conservatives sam bromley with 8675 votes, or. 34. 9. Thats 8675 votes, or. 34. 9. Thats precise early, 10 ahead. Lets see if we can listen in to see if we can hear anything thats still being said in the hall. Thank you guys. Thank you guys. Soon to be sworn in as the next labour member of parliament for kingswood. As the first labour member of parliament for this constituency since the 2005 general election, when the uh Labour Party Last won that seat with roger perry. Um roger berry , i beg your um roger berry, i beg your pardon, but no, we this is this is an interesting, interesting point. James crouch , as point. James crouch, as a pollster , we think this is pollster, we think this is around a 16 to 17 swing, which is a huge swing to labour, but its less than recent by elections where labour have done a lot better. Yes. So usually by elections are referendums on the government and, and everything weve seen assume that the government is less popular than it was basically this time last summer. And ever since then weve seen 20 swing, 20 swing, one after the other. It seems to be this lower, 17 swing, whatever it is. Precisely and seems to be down because labours vote share hasnt actually gone up as much, and reform for the first time seems to actually be doing the business in an actual electoral event. And we havent really seen that in any by election up until now. This is really significant. Matt goodwin, reform 10. 4 that suggest that for the first time, we have evidence this sort of what some people have described as a phantom polling number for reform. This is now hard evidence in an electoral event that perhaps it isnt a phantom, perhaps this real reform rise in the polls is actually turning into votes. Yeah well, tom, 10. 4 is basically bangin well, tom, 10. 4 is basically bang in line with where their National Polling average is this week. So you know, richard tice will be happy with that. Hes able to say, look, actually theyre not a mirage. Theyre doing on the ground what theyre doing on the ground what theyre doing National Polling. Doing in the National Polling. What will be interesting now will that 10. 4 will to be compare that 10. 4 with wellingborough, where again, know, youve a again, you know, youve got a bit of a pro brexit seat bit more of a pro brexit seat and also, lets be frank, reform have been throwing a lot more effort wellingborough than effort into wellingborough than they this they than they have in this seat. Know, youve had a lot seat. You know, youve had a lot more activity the ground if more activity on the ground if they of with maybe they come out of that with maybe you know, 13, 14, 15. This you know, 13, 14, 15. Um, this is night for is a really good night for reform. Mean, some only, you reform. I mean, some only, you know, the sort of National Populist Party british populist party in british politics is back. Lets see if we can well, lets see if we can have a look at these results in visual form now our screens. Visual form now on our screens. Lets see if we can get this graphic up for us. Here we go. Labour win damien egan, labour party , 11,107 and 51 votes. And party, 11,107 and 51 votes. And thats 44. 9. The conservatives. Thats 44. 9. The conservatives. On 34. 9. Reform uk breaking into double digits. There with 10. 4. The green party keeping their deposit. Can we get that graphic back up on screen . Because this is important. We cant at the moment. Dont you worry about it. The green party keep their deposits in this seat on 5. 8, but who loses their deposit . The liberal democrats, now the liberal democrats, now the liberal democrats, now the liberal democrats are in coalition in the council in this area. And we know that what the area. And we know that what the council has been up to in its proposal, plans to build some housing has been very controversial in this campaign. But Stephen Pound, we were talking earlier about ukip , how talking earlier about ukip, how it was doing in the coalition modern era. In those five years from 2010 to 2015, where it started, nowhere. And then there was started to be these by elections as we started to see rotherham, heywood and middleton, eastleigh , we started middleton, eastleigh, we started to the vote climb and climb to see the vote climb and climb and climb. Are we starting to and climb. Are we starting to see a similar effect here with the reform party . There we can see on our screens double digit percentage. Remember we called it beastly eastleigh because we actually swore and we try not to use the word momentum in the labour party nowadays. But demonstrar hinckley momentum hinckley theres a momentum there. For me, the there. But look for me, the single most extraordinary, quite stunning piece of information thats of this is the thats come out of this is the third party are now reform and the greens are very , very the greens are very, very strong. From brighton, strong. Apart from brighton, bristol strongest bristol is their strongest base anywhere country. Theyve anywhere in the country. Theyve got eyes thangam got their eyes on Thangam Debbonaire seat. Theyve got a lot of seats on the council and theyve well at all. Theyve not done well at all. But extraordinary. The liberal democrats , they are the ones democrats, they are the ones wholl be weeping. Be wholl be weeping. Therell be a gnashing of teeth there. , thats a lost deposit. Yeah, thats a lost deposit. So for those that arent the so for those that arent in the know anything below 5 in a British Election count is a lost deposit. So no money back from deposit. So no money back from the liberal democrats and their candidate , andrew brown. But the candidate, andrew brown. But the greens, perhaps theyll be disappointed that its not higher. But but but still 5. 8 keep their deposit in an election where the labour party squeeze on voters will have been very, very high, will have seen a lot of, uh , leaflets with bar a lot of, uh, leaflets with bar charts on them saying your vote doesnt count. Well, i mean, the liberals since the dawn of time have been putting a leaflet says putting out a leaflet that says its a two horse race. You know, you cant win here. I know you know, in where labour know, even in seats where labour have majority, or the have got 30,000 majority, or the tories , you know, tories have, you know, they always look, i mean always do that. But look, i mean the are strong this the greens are strong in this part of world and, but part of the world and, but theyre clearly not as strong as theyre clearly not as strong as they thought were. But they thought they were. But for me, sorry to coming me, im sorry to keep coming back but the back to this, but the extraordinary statistic is the back to this, but the exthe rdinary statistic is the back to this, but the exthe liberal statistic is the back to this, but the exthe liberal democratsthe back to this, but the exthe liberal democrats being is the liberal democrats being squeezed almost out of existence . Mhm. Mhm. Absolutely, absolutely. No. Absolutely, absolutely. And interesting and its so its so interesting because a couple because there have been a couple of elections. Tiverton and of by elections. Tiverton and honiton example, not too far away. But the liberal democrats were the by election specialist. Remember minute now you remember any minute now id driving id have ed davey driving a tipper through a brick tipper truck through a brick wall be, you know, wall or theyd be, you know, liberal winning here wall or theyd be, you know, lilwhingeing winning here wall or theyd be, you know, lilwhingeing here winning here wall or theyd be, you know, lilwhingeing here or1ning here wall or theyd be, you know, lilwhingeing here or winningre or whingeing here or winning here or whatever. I cant remember what now. Remember what it is. Now. The of visual the number of visual metaphors is that the that the liberal democrats whenever liberal democrats do whenever they they had they win a by election they had they win a by election they had they where they they had a big door where they said, boris the door they said, show boris the door they had, they had some sort of cannon clown show. Cannon from a clown show. I mean, doesnt labour mean, why doesnt the Labour Party Like this . Party do fun stuff like this . Because we got some taste of the liberal had this removal van and said of the golden and they said one of the golden rules british politics, which and they said one of the golden rulesshattered| politics, which and they said one of the golden rulesshattered anditics, which and they said one of the golden rulesshattered and broke vhich and they said one of the golden rulesshattered and broke was| they shattered and broke was a huge picture rishi sunak on huge picture of rishi sunak on the removal van. The side of the removal van. Remember something do you remember something called edestone . Called the edestone . Was, that was moving oh, that was, that was moving on the edestone, which was these concrete pledges. Thats all right. With stone and what were they . I right. With stone and what were they . I mean, they were even more vague than rishi sunak. Five pledges, one of them an nhs with time to care. Get a grip on immigration, nhs with to care. Nhs with time to care. Well, they put that a mug. Well, they put that on a mug. I know we actually put the mug around on immigration. Of those mugs. I had one of those mugs. I had one of those mugs. I had one of those mugs. I one those mugs that i had one of those mugs that makes you fairly unique on the on just other thing on the on just one other thing on the on just one other thing on the on the result. Quite today its quite remarkable today isnt can look at a isnt it, that we can look at a 17 or 18 point swing and we say actually and say thats yes, thats nothing, because we got used to 20 swings in used to the 20 to 25 swings in recent elections. Labour is recent by elections. Labour is doing what labour needs to do in order win the next general order to win the next general election. Point election. Thats the key point in all this. If its turning in all of this. If its turning over these seats, its over these kinds of seats, its going win the next election going to win the next election comfortably. Wellingborough and william wellingborough gets it interesting. Its a much, bigger pack in much, much bigger pack in wellingborough. Its more many, many can many more candidates. So we can see the votes will be see the way the votes will be splitting. See the way the votes will be splittingvery, very interesting to and very, very interesting to see does in see what reform does in wellingborough. Put more wellingborough. They put more resources as resources into wellingborough as opposed also resources into wellingborough as 0|muchi also resources into wellingborough as 0|much more also resources into wellingborough as 0|much more rural also resources into wellingborough as 0|much more rural constituency a much more rural constituency to which traditionally is not been but james, been good for labour. But james, what would a 16 what have i written . 16. 4 look like what would a 16 what have i wrterms16. 4 look like what would a 16 what have i wrterms of 4 look like what would a 16 what have i wrterms of the look like what would a 16 what have i wrterms of the scale look like what would a 16 what have i wrterms of the scale loclabour in terms of the scale of labour victory . Were this to be projected nationally . Its pretty much its i think its pretty much bang on what our last poll was, which i think is 15. If they have an 18 point lead in the in the polls, its about a 15 swing. Actually that makes me swing. So actually that makes me quite but the one thing quite happy. But the one thing thats going to interesting thats going to be interesting for not a large for that is thats not a large enough swing to take wellingborough. Um, interestingly , i think you need interestingly, i think you need 18 to take wellingborough. So thatis 18 to take wellingborough. So that is where that becomes even more exciting and more interesting. Interesting. Well, that is tantalising. Well, that is tantalising. And on that note, terrifying. And on that note, terrifying. It5 and on that note, terrifying. Its 2 am. Or just after this its 2 am. Orjust after this is gb news, britains election channel. A crucial year starts here. Votes 2020 for the people decide. Weve just heard that decide. Weve just heard that labour have won kingswood. Thats the first result of the night. Thats the first result of the night. Damian egan won it thats the first result of the night. Damian egan won it with night. Damian egan won it with 44. 9 of the vote. Will bring you the result when we have it from wellingborough. Gb news presenter nigel farage will be joining us in the studio to give his view and later on Ann Widdecombe will join us live in the studio. The studio. To. Now, commenting on labours gain in the kingswood by election, sir keir starmer has said this is a fantastic result in kingswood that shows people are ready to put their trust in a Labour Government by winning in this tory stronghold , and we can this tory stronghold, and we can confidently say that labour is back in the service of working people and we will work tirelessly to deliver for them to those who have put their trust in us. You can be safe in the knowledge that the labour party will deliver on your priorities. Labour will give britain its future back. Well hes describing hes describing kingswood. There as a tory stronghold. Of course , the stronghold. Of course, the tories only took it in 2010, but they have held it since then. For the last 14 years. So that i suppose, is debateable. But those are the words of sir keir starmer. Now nigel farage is imminent , starmer. Now nigel farage is imminent, but were going to go back to the kingswood count, where im joined again by the conservative mp for North Somerset and gb news presenter sir Jacob Rees Mogg. So, jacob, sirJacob Rees Mogg. So, jacob, we now have these numbers. Uh, we now have these numbers. Uh, the labour party has taken this seat. Its in your patch. What do you make of it. Well, i think its not as good a result as labour would have liked, but id like to begin by congratulating mr egan. It is a wonderful thing and a great honour to be a member of parliament, and anyone who wins a seat deserves congratulations. But you add up the but if you add up the conservative vote and the reform vote, then then that is more than the vote achieved by the labour party. And i think the challenge for conservatives and conservatism is to reunite the right wing of politics, because the way we let keir starmer in by the back door of downing street is if the two parties that share so many things in common are divided on election day. Day. So it is really, really interesting to for you to say that, sir jacob, because interesting to for you to say that, sirjacob, because , uh, that, sirjacob, because, uh, this is going to be a crucial message for the conservative party. I can almost see this written on conservative leaflets going into the future, going into further elections that the reform party and if ive taken it from what youre saying there, from pointing out that tory plus reform would have beaten labour here, is it your message that the reform party cost the tories this seat . It cost the tories this seat . It no, i think its very arrogant to say that people should have voted for another party. Its for us as politicians to win their support. But i think we win their support by concentrating on the areas where we agree. And that means getting to a position where taxes are reduced , dealing where taxes are reduced, dealing with the ridiculous net zero proposals that are becoming unaffordable and are closing down industry in this country , down industry in this country, and making sure we get all the benefits of brexit, the things that people voted for in 2019, if we can have across, we can remind people of the excitement of conservatism and can reuse right the right of politics. Then the conservatives with reform have a chance of winning the next election. The next election. The conservatives won 8675 votes in kingswood. Labour won 11,176. That is not the biggest margin in the world. But frankly, perhaps more than looking at other parties, the question might be what has happened to all those conservative that turned out in 2019 whove chosen to stay at home . Thats absolutely right. I mean, very often at by elections , people stay at home. But it goes back to what i was saying. How do we energise our supporters to make them feel they want to out to vote . They want to turn out to vote . And i think that is by reminding them of what conservatives for, stand that is getting stand and that is of getting taxes the economy taxes down, getting the economy going , of not taxes down, getting the economy going, of not having an energy policy. Thats making people cold if we can push cold and poor. If we can push that forward, then we can encourage people to turn out to vote. Message there of, uh, vote. Your message there of, uh, turning to perhaps a more for want of a better word, trusss policy prospectus , some people policy prospectus, some people might say , didnt turn out might say, didnt turn out particularly well last year. What would be your counter to that argument . Arent well, im not putting any particular name to what im suggesting. Im saying its suggesting. Im saying its conservative policy. And conservative policy. And actually ideologically, i dont think its a million miles away from rishi sunaks view of the world. Rishi sunak is a huge admirer of the late nigel lord lawson , and has said that on lawson, and has said that on many occasions nigel lawson was the biggest tax cutter this countrys known in its modern history and yet what rishi sunak has been saying is that inflation needs to come down first to some extent. First to some extent. The policy, the Monetary Policy that weve seen thats pushed this country into a mild recession , into a technical recession, into a technical recession, into a technical recession, uh , yesterday to some recession, uh, yesterday to some extent, that is precisely what rishi sunak wanted to see happen in. Well, its obviously important to get inflation under control, but im afraid the bank of england failed to keep inflation under control, was slow putting Interest Rates up and is now being slow to bring them back down again. There is them back down again. There is a real problem with the way the bank england is operating and bank of england is operating and the governor coming out in the last couple days and blaming last couple of days and blaming his forecasts on the his inaccurate forecasts on the data they use , is really data that they use, is really hopeless. Its always been known that the data that go into forecasts are not as accurate as you would hope for, and you have to apply judgement to your forecasts, assuming that forecasts, not assuming that they will just mathematically be right. The labour party yesterday saying that is rishi saying that this is rishi recession. Are you sirjacob, recession. Are you sir jacob, saying that this is actually the bank of englands recession , bank of englands recession, though its clearly the bank of englands recession. The bank of england has bungled Monetary Policy in the last years. Last few years. Well, you couldnt have been clearer than that. So Jacob Rees Mogg, thank you very much for coming to us live, live from the kingswood count as we again learn that information on labour has taken the seat of kingswood. They have won it with ten Percentage Points clear of the conservative party well, heres that moment to remind ourselves of labours damien egan winning kingswood. Kingswood. Damien james egan, commonly known as damien egan, labour party. 11,170. Party. 11,170. That. Party. 11,170. That. Was 11,176. That. Was 11,176. Well, a big cheer there from an exuberant Labour Party Campaign team in kingswood. But really interesting there to see not just the labour partys position and the tories position. There was a third party that came in with a double digit share of the vote, and that was the reform party. And that was the reform party. And im delighted to say that joining me in the studio is the honorary president of reform uk, nigel farage. Nigel what do you make of this result . So what have been said in the last few months is that reform is a party in theory. It gets, you know, National Polling of eight, nine, 10, 12, whatever it is. But in by elections, its always underperforms. And to date it always has. Kingswood is the first election in which weve actually got up with the National Vote share at 10. 35. Of course, jacob would say bigger than the difference between the conservatives and labour, which it was. But the truth is, people it was. But the truth is, people voting reform would not vote conservative anyway. They are so , so upset. They feel so , so upset. They feel so betrayed with the conservative since 2019 and you know , its since 2019 and you know, its a funny thing and i guess not many viewers will get this. I have led 30 by elections , 30, 30 and led 30 by elections, 30, 30 and 31 actually, as ukip leader. And we got better and better at it as the years you were there. First candidate i stood in a by election 30 years ago. You werent even born. You werent even born. I wasnt 30 in 1994. I wasnt 30 in 1994. Yeah. I stood in eastleigh just before i was born. Well, only just i know youre getting too, on but. So i stood 30 years ago in a by election i got a thousand votes. I mean, actually, it was a Pretty Amazing achievement. Really given where we were. Politics in given where we were. Politics in by elections is as much about perspiration as inspiration. Perspiration as inspiration. It5 perspiration as inspiration. Its about a Party Machine. And its about a Party Machine. And the one thing that reform has not got that ukip did have ten years ago is a big machine. Rupert lowe standing in kingswood. Yes, he had 20 or 30 people helping him, but it literally was a threadbare operation with zero data compared to the conservatives who know how your granddad voted, and labour as well. Well, voted, and labour as well. Well, and the fact that hes managed to get a vote up with National Vote share shows you something very sexy is going on in british politics, very sexy words. Im not sure i would have heard you, nigel farage, say , heard you, nigel farage, say, but there we go. I wonder we talk about the big parties, the established parties. And youre established parties. And youre right to talk about the fact that running multiple elections, you build up data , you know, you build up data, you know, where your voters are and then, crucially, in by elections, turn out to be lower turnout elections. Often you turn your people out, uh, have was the reform party been using brexit party data . I suppose its the same entity. Was there much brexit party . The truth is that the brexit party was launched on the 12th of april 2019, when it was an air war. We were an air war party, not a ground war. No, there was no time to do it to build up the kind of volunteer army base. You know, i called ukip the peoples army. It was a long time ago. Its gone. So we even time ago. Its gone. So we even in the European Elections, you know, do we have data . Yes. Do we have 150,000 supporters on our database . Yes we do, but do our database . Yes we do, but do we have data going back generations . No we dont. And generations . No we dont. And that makes a hell of a difference. Look, that result shows you something very big. Sexy as i called it, is going on. But you know what the most significant result of kingswood is . The lib dems losing their deposit. This is gloucestershire. This is the kind of turf in which the lib dems would have expected a very solid by election result. The fact they got 3. 5 lost their deposit. Its very interesting. My deposit. Its very interesting. My goodness me, isnt rishi lucky . If the lib dems had a good leader, the tories would be in huge trouble, not just in the north in the red wall, but in the south as well. Could you not say that were seeing perhaps a reverse of the politics that we saw in the 19805, politics that we saw in the 1980s, the politics that we saw in the 19805, the 19805 . Politics that we saw in the 1980s, the 1980s . There was a big split on the left of politics between the liberal sdp alliance and the labour party. Alliance and the labour party. It seems that theres been this coalescing around perhaps a more centrist labour party, at least thats the image they want to project. And unarguably see a split on the right. No , theres no right. No, theres no right. No, theres no right. The conservative party is not right in 14 years of conservative government, the whole agenda has shifted ever leftwards. This is a conservative party of big state, high tax , mass immigration. This high tax, mass immigration. This is not a right wing conservative party. Its not even centre right. Its actually just the left of the political spectrum. There is now a massive gap on the moderate gender within sensible grown up centre right of british politics. And what youve seen in kingswood and what you will see in wellingborough in an hours time, that gap beginning time, is that gap is beginning to filled. To be filled. Would tell you he rishi sunak would tell you he was thatcherite, rishi was a thatcherite, but rishi sunak would say that hes trying to this rwanda scheme off to get this rwanda scheme off the ground. He would say he cut national insurance. Im sorry , five pledges im sorry, five pledges right, reduced inflation. Yes. Inflation is down. You know why . Because grow the economy. Pledge because grow the economy. Pledge three is now a complete catastro fee because were in recession cutting the debt. Our National Debt has never been higher in our history. Its £110 billion repayments every year. Number four, cutting nhs waiting lists. It5 four, cutting nhs waiting lists. Its still over 7 million. Stop the boats. Hes telling us that the boats. Hes telling us that 30,000 young males coming last yearis 30,000 young males coming last year is somehow a victory. Hes the best spinner since blair. None of its sincere , none of none of its sincere, none of its genuine. And you know what . Hes not even recognisable in terms of policy as a conservative. Lets zoom back to these by elections because as the leader of ukip, ukip was originally, uh , losing deposits at the start of the 2010s. , losing deposits at the start of the 20105. How did it build up through those early by elections to a point where you actually won two by elections . I remember winning a winning deposit in wigan in about 2006. Wow. And we would lose deposit after deposit after deposit in 2010. Id been leader of the party until oh nine. I stepped down for a year, i came, i said, right, were going to do this properly and you have to build a machine. You have to get a lot of volunteers in and the incentive, of course, in those days come and have drink days was come and have a drink with know, i mean, with nigel, you know, i mean, you know, i didnt have a drink with all of them, but you need to get bodies. You you need data. If youre a punter living in a by election seat, you will have 150 leaflet knock. I mean, 30 leaflets through your door. Mm youre so hacked off with the whole thing to get people out on monday to vote. Youve got to knock on the door and have personal persuasion. You need a machine. I build a machine. I raise money for by election raise money for each by election i who understood i got experts in who understood polling, focus, grouping. I made polling, focus, grouping. I made it a massive, massive enterprise and in the barnsley and in 2011, in the barnsley by election, we came second and we never, ever came less than second in any other by election. Dufing second in any other by election. During my leadership. It doesnt during my leadership. It doesnt happen overnight. Richard tice richard tice has saved reform because a lot of people say that richard tice doesnt have the name recognition you do. Some people say he doesnt have the charisma you do. And a lot of people say, well, my goodness, if reforms getting 10 here, if nigel was leading, it could be getting 20. Well , that may be true. It well, that may be true. It may not be true. What i will say for richard is he kept that party going, much of it out of his own pocket. I mean, he has his own pocket. I mean, he has put an astonishing amount of money, of his own money in to keeping that vehicle going dunng keeping that vehicle going during a time when people said, oh, no , brexits done. We dont oh, no, brexits done. We dont need reform. And now its coming into his own. So i have the utmost admiration for richard. It could be the case that in november theres a general election in this country and another election just across the atlantic, a president ial election in the United States. Election in the United States. Be honest. Now, which are you more interested in . Oh, well , look, both i mean, oh, well, look, both i mean, i mean, its a very unfair question. Um, of course i want the donald to win. Donald to win. I, whatever his flaws may be, whatever his excesses. I mean, whatever his excesses. I mean, the nato speech is classic donald. Excessive. And yet pushing people in the right direction. Uh, the western world needs leadership, needs strength. Otherwise, these bully boys are going to walk all over us. Ah, but of course, im british. Im english, and i want to see what happens here. Tom look, you know, i, i am enjoying my life at gb news. Im the honorary president of reform. I honorary president of reform. I have no executive role in the party. Um everyone speculates. Well, i come back as leader. I might do, i might not, i dont know , um, my big fear would be know, um, my big fear would be to come back and get 5 million votes in three seats. If i see a really historic opportunity to go in and to win a large number of seats and to replace the conservative party, well, i ill probably do it, but im not sure yet. Goodness me. Cards close to your chest, nigel farage. Thank your chest, nigel farage. Thank you so much forjoining us and talking us through those enormous issues on this big night in british politics. Well, lets cross now to northamptonshire, to the wellingborough count. Uh, and uh , lets see, heres will hollis , lets see, heres will hollis, heres will hollis, our reporter on the ground. Heres will hollis, our reporter on the ground. Is a heres will hollis, our reporter on the ground. Is a result on the ground. Is a result imminent . Will well, i suppose the sign that a result could be imminent is the fact that a lot of the people here conducting the count in the wellingborough by election have stopped counting. If you just look over to the sports hall where we are in kettering, which is only a ten minute drive from the wellingborough constituency, chosen because of sheer size chosen because of the sheer size and the interest from the local media, as well as the number of candidates , most people have candidates, most people have stopped counting. The ones that stopped counting. The ones that are counting only have a few ballots in front of them. Ballots left in front of them. Now it seems to be the same all the way along the sports complex. We saw somebody that we havent seen so far tonight, not too long ago. Thats jen kitchen, whos the candidate here for labour looking very likely that she will take a victory lap. Weve seen it so far in kingswood. Could it be two wins in a night for labour. Now thats what they seem to think. Theyre certainly quite hopeful. We heard positive messages from toby perkins, chesterfield mp, when he was speaking to us earlier on gb news. But you know who else is feeling quite confident . The reform party. We heard from richard tice ben habib as well. The candidate here in wellingborough, hes hanging around table. It like around the table. It looks like they could very well, even if they could do very well, even if it might not mean a win, because sometimes in these by elections its not necessarily about winning it might about winning. It might be about making statement and showing making a statement and showing what electorate wants and what the electorate wants and potentially what the electorate thinks it might need. Um, we thinks it might need. Um, we were told recently by a press officer that theyre looking at maybe a 3 00 declaration. So it could be within the next half an hour or so. But most people have stopped counting here in the wellingborough by election. And we saw quite quickly that kingswood count was announced. The declaration came in much quicker than we were expecting here, uh, on our on our media balcony a hundred miles away from that gloucestershire by election so this one could creep along quite quickly as well. Tom very much will hollis. That is good news. 3 am. Potentially for a result there in wellingborough. Well, what an in wellingborough. Well, what an extraordinary moment this is. I wonder , can you read the faces wonder, can you read the faces of the various campaigns of the various teams around that room . Various teams around that room . Um, is there anyone looking particularly chuffed or anyone looking particularly gloomy . Looking particularly gloomy . Yes. Well everybody seems to have a bit of a buzz around them. A lot of the candidates are talking to each other, particularly those in independent candidates. We were here from the here in earlier, from the candidates might not do, candidates that might not do, you know , in those three, we you know, in those top three, we were from liberal were hearing from liberal democrat anna savage democrat candidate anna savage gun, and she was saying that its not necessarily about winning, about standing up its not necessarily about winwellingborough standing up its not necessarily about winwellingborough , anding up for wellingborough, northamptonshire, where she is spent most of, if not all of her life. It seems that , um, jen life. It seems that, um, jen kitchen seemed quite happy and quite positive when she was going around checking some of the ballots. I think she was probably the most happy of all of the people that weve seen. Ben habib seems to have a bit of a a bit of spring in his a buzz, a bit of a spring in his step. I havent anything step. I havent seen anything from harrison the from Helen Harrison yet. The conservative candidate. We are expecting that she will be here. I think im just getting a nod. Actually, we have seen her. I personally havent seen her. I was probably enjoying my tea a little too much there, tom, little bit too much there, tom, but it little bit too much there, tom, butit that little bit too much there, tom, but it that theres but it seems that theres a good, um, atmosphere here in the air because it gets the people going. A by election weve got a general election later in only a few months, so while not everybody gets to win, not everybody gets to win, not everybody gets to be the mp. Um, it certainly a good time to get excited about politics, isnt it, tom . Marvellous. The theatre of democracy, the wonderful celebration of democracy. We love to see it. Will hollis, thank you very much. Uh, live from kettering, where the wellingborough count is taking place now were going to be speaking. Were going to be crossing back to kingswood in just a second, because we really do want to talk to a candidate who has done something that was perhaps confounded expectations of the media. Rupert lowe is the brexit party. I beg your pardon . The reform Party Candidate out there, rupert , rupert, thank you there, rupert, rupert, thank you for joining us here live on gb forjoining us here live on gb news on our results special. You have achieved something that many people thought impossible , many people thought impossible, able. You have made matched reform uks National Polling numbers in a real vote. Numbers in a real vote. Yup. Its good to see. Its good to see a 10. 4 result for us tonight. Id like to thank my us tonight. Id like to thank my team. Theyve been fantastic. Weve had a very small team down here and we came in very late, but i think the it shows the scale of disc affection that people have for the way in which theyre being governed. And ive got to thank the people who voted for us because the english electorate is often very slow to react, but i think theyre now on the march. And i think the, the westminster elite , backed up the westminster elite, backed up by the Civil Service the quangos and the entire organs of the state, need to start listening to what the people want and they want better government. They want better government. They want more long tum planning, they want less tax, less waste and state. And less state. Rupert, a lot of people are commenting on the fact that your number of votes is a larger number of votes is a larger number number than the difference between the labour party and the concern party in kingswood. Kingswood. What do you say to those who say you are responsible for the election of a labour party mp . Election of a labour party mp . Well i think thats piffle. Well i think thats piffle. At the end of the day, the tories have been playing with the train set for quite a number of years now and they havent been playing with it very successful. We, were taking votes both the tories and votes from both the tories and labour and its quite clear from, from going , going round from, from going, going round kingswood today. Labour were all over the constituency like a rash. There were so many people out with their boards obviously driving the vote. I think, i think both the main parties, the oligopolistic tories and labour, are worried about what were doing and i think quite rightly so, because we represent people, we represent real people and we want to make this country better governed and more successful. Governed and more successful. There was, of course, a bit of a kerfuffle over the fact or the question over whether reform uk would have a candidate in kingswood. Initially, there was kingswood. Initially, there was an announcement from richard tice saying that there was going to be a principled sitting out of this by election, and then you changed your minds. Do you think perhaps hurts your think that perhaps hurts your standing this by election standing in this by election not at all, no. I think i think we changed our view because, quite rightly, richard was concerned that this constituency disappears in all probability in october. When, when, when , when the election is when, when, when the election is likely to be held , uh, which was likely to be held, uh, which was a waste of a quarter of £1 million of taxpayers money. But we had such an overwhelming demand from local people that we should stand that that i stepped into the breach. And i think whilst we came to it late and i think we may have suffered a little in the postal vote when the main vote came in as a result of the campaign we fought, i think, i think we, we, we did well and im delighted to see as we as we went into the vote, our momentum was gathering pace and rupert just finally were you a little bit put out by the focus of reform uk on wellingborough . Wellingborough . It seemed that reform uk leadership were throwing the kitchen sink at wellingborough and perhaps leaving kingswood with less love, less attention than. Well, i think were all big boys. At the end of the day i funded this campaign in in kingswood myself. I, im very happy to do that. Its im happy to do that. Its im delighted its an improvement on my last foray into a general election. When i stood for the election. When i stood for the referendum party, i got 6. 6 of the vote in 97. So weve got 10. 4 now. I stood as a lightning rod for the people of kingswood to send a message to westminster, and i think thats what theyve done. Well rupert lowe, thank you very much for your time. The first reform uk candidate to have matched National Polling levels in a by election. Really appreciate your time there. Thank you. Well, back in the studio with me is Stephen Pound, the former labour mp. Nigel the former labour mp. Nigel farage. The former leader of ukip, the former leader of the brexit party, the honorary president of reform uk and best friend of donald trump. Um and were also joined by james crouch , the opinion pollster and crouch, the opinion pollster and james, just your overview here, how different is wellingborough from kingswood . Weve got the kingswood result. Were expecting the wellingborough results in around half an hours time. So they are actually pretty different places. I mean ultimately they are both leave voting constituencies , but voting constituencies, but wellingborough is far more that kind of core middle england, more blue collar conservative territory. Um, its the sort of territory. Um, its the sort of place where actually ukip did come second in 2015. Um but kingswood is very different. Kingswood is very different. It5 kingswood is very different. Its relatively ordinary middle people, but suburban. So a lot people, but suburban. So a lot of Home Ownership , a lot of car of Home Ownership, a lot of car ownership. But were not talking about stockbroker belt here. Were talking about ordinary People Living very suburban lives. Puts you in lives. Usually that puts you in the blue column today they seem to be in the red column. James, this is a very good day for pollsters far. Uh, day for pollsters so far. Uh, this lead, this this 16. 4. This this lead, this this 16. 4. Uh swing is precisely what the opinion polls were suggesting. Opinion polls were suggesting. Indeed, the brexit i keep saying brexit party, the reform uk percentage matches their National Polling percentage, uh, are we seeing a resurgence after are we seeing a resurgence after a time when opinion pollsters were pretty low in in Public Opinion , where people didnt opinion, where people didnt really trust you guys , youve really trust you guys, youve pretty much nailed this. Well i hope from 2019 where we actually managed to nail the result bang oii. On. And i hoped we gave a had a little bit of a rehabilitate then, but it is very much its one of the things thats been top of our mind is reform is one of these big numbers. For once, its actually really coming out of one partys vote share more than other. Its coming than the other. So its coming more out of the conservative vote and we had to see vote share. And we had to see some actual evidence of this happening on the ground without us well, is this not us saying, well, is this not going to change when we get to a Short Campaign . So they will be very finally saying very happy in finally saying kingswood, where very happy in finally saying kingswood,where wouldnt very happy in finally saying kingswood, where wouldnt put kingswood, where i wouldnt put it top. Its well, it in the top. Its uh, well, wellingborough probably the wellingborough is probably the top 100 seats for reform. Kingswood is not even probably top 200, so its very much to see the average vote share means that wellingborough, were going to see something probably a bit more exciting. Nigel, seeing a so nigel, if were seeing a seat like like kingswood, which is not in the two top 200 seats for reform uk and thats over 10. Theres been a lot of rumours about you and a seat called always always rumours about media and a seat a seats called clacton which was the number one seat for ukip. Number one seat for ukip. Douglas carswell won it for ukip twice. Twice. What does it tell you . What does it tell you . What does it tell you . What lets focus on tonight. Lets focus on these by elections tonight. But have you and youve just made the point to me that kingswood would not be in the top 200 seats for reform . Top 200 seats for reform . Um, and the fact that rupert lowe and its very interesting, he was a late candidate, as you alluded to. Yes. You know, richard said were not going to do then. Werent going to do it then. We werent going to do it then. We werent going to do the late candidate a do it. The late candidate with a tiny people with zero tiny team of people with zero data and i mean zero data because no history in the constituency. I saw his campaign constituency. I saw his campaign photographs , you know, on a good photographs, you know, on a good day, 20 people, um, and he still got 10. This is a blatant reform uk vote. You think . Vote. You think . Very much so. I think something is going on out there thatis something is going on out there that is much bigger than most political analysts understand, or even want to understand , and or even want to understand, and its a feeling that the whole system doesnt work anymore , system doesnt work anymore, that politics isnt working anymore. And reform is a radical party. We want to change the electoral system, get rid of the house of lords as it is the whole thing doesnt work. Thats our view and its gaining currency. Currency. Currency. Im being told were going to hear the wellingborough result in the next 10 to 15 minutes. It5 in the next 10 to 15 minutes. Its getting really close. Its getting really very close. But nigel, i saw a fire light up behind your eyes when we were talking about the way the placing these seats come in, the areas that are good for reform uk because 10 on a seat that is , you know, down past 200 would imply by that there are some seats on current polling where reform uk might be more than in with a chance. I think that if reform really continue to go the way they are, i think much of the red wall go from being two way marginals to three way marginals. Now now historically, to break the first past the post system in british politics is dash difficult. Roy jenkins came very close back in 83. Stephen will remember it very, very well by election. You know very well indeed. Crosby , crosby all of and crosby, crosby all of that. E e was interesting, but what was interesting, stephen, was the 83 general election jenkins get 25. 4 and election. Jenkins get 25. 4 and 23 seats. Labour gets 27. 6 and 209 seats busting the system is very, very difficult. If we were, i ironically in europe, where the where with the european system of pr , a european system of pr, a european, wed have been in recession three three quarters ago. But stephen, you i mean, you know, if we had pr, the whole thing would look different, wouldnt it . But i mean, i have to say, um, its hardly room enough for me. And nigel smile in this particular studio because these are the two big winners, the labour party. No, hang a second. Well, no, hang on a second. Well, no, hang on a second. Labour party that was the labour party that was baked lets be honest. Yeah. Yeah. Baked him the tories pretty much had realised they were going have swallow going to have to swallow the bullet but for bullet on this one. But for reform to do that, that is incredible. But isnt the, isnt the even bigger story that in gloucestershire, the liberal democrat 3. 5 and also the democrat 5 get 3. 5 and also the greens like the greens have disappeared like the snow melting. Is their big but but this is their big strong area. Saying, this is as we were saying, this is a squeeze. This is by election squeeze. This is a by election squeeze. This is a by election squeeze. Is. The labour party squeeze. It is. The labour party wanted decapitate and wanted to decapitate a tory and they and they managed to do it. I that, tom. But for the i get that, tom. But for the liberal democrats in gloucestershire their gloucestershire to lose their deposit remarkable. And they deposit is remarkable. And they have more have got a leader even more ineffective sunak. Ineffective than rishi sunak. And starmer. And sir keir starmer. You think that reform uk do you think that reform uk could now that almost, do you think that reform uk could now that almost , that could now take that almost, that its sometimes used as a pejorative, but protest party space, because there is a role , space, because there is a role, you know what the anti politics you know what the anti politics you know what the anti politics you know what, what it was really interesting. Said ukip they always said the ukip vote protest vote. When vote was a protest vote. When you polled ukip voters, they said, were protesting. Said, no, were not protesting. We agree with them. Yeah, is the difference, yeah, this is the difference, i between the sdp. I think, between the sdp. I mean, i remember doing the crosby by election croydon crosby by election the croydon by election, crosby by election the croydon by eyeahyn, it was anti labour one. Yeah and it was anti labour it was anti establishment, but it was anti establishment, but it wasnt offering any alternative. A alternative. I think ukip had a specific purpose. It did. We all know they wanted. Knew know what they wanted. We knew exactly stood. Yeah, exactly where they stood. Yeah, its said tip. Its what it said on the tip. I think reform is a much Bigger Picture its just an picture now. Its not just an anti on all your houses anti plague on all your houses party. This is an party. I think this is an alternative motive. And i think all of the, you know, the big two a half should be two and a half parties should be actually concerned. Actually very, very concerned. But what happens at but lets see what happens at wellingborough if reform go wellingborough if, if reform go over 10 then the Political Landscape totally. Landscape has changed totally. James reform uk up until very recently didnt have any name recognition at all. Is this result suggesting this result in kingswood suggesting that perhaps its starting to have that sort of name recognition . Well, potentially i think the thing thats going to be really interesting about wellingborough is most by is that unlike most by elections, dont really have elections, you dont really have any benchmarks about which any good benchmarks about which to compare. Know what . What you know what . What is a significant result . In october, we had the tamworth by election, which is, you know, on all things on paper, a remarkably similar seat and actually remarkably similar polling circumstances standing down. Yes. Yes. So the idea that you have in october reform in a very similar seat, only doing 5 and labour barnstorming ahead if thats not happening in wellingborough, this time, it does suggest that there is Something Different about the Political Landscape up to october. Well yeah. And nigel, given what weve seen with the reform uk vote in this part of the world doubling , this part of the world doubling, you must surely be tempted to. You must surely be tempted to. Were covering by elections , were covering by elections, not my personal life. You know. I mean, look, you know, as stephen, ill tell you this , i stephen, ill tell you this, i did nearly 21 years in the european parliament. Politics is not all glamour where you give up a heck of a lot to do politics. And i wasnt an mp. I was an mep. I missed my kids was an mep. I missed my kids growing up. I lost a huge amount of income id have had from private business. I suffered abuse that no modern political figure has suffered. Now im at figure has suffered. Now im at gb news trying to be part of a broadcasting revolution. Do you know what were doing . Rather well. So, tom, i might do it, but im having a long, hard. Youre showing a little bit of legs, so bits of leg more than a little bit of leg. Than a little bit of leg. Zigi shipper. Zigi shipper. Gentlemen, stay with us and well turned. Stay with me, because im delighted to. Now welcome. Uh, damian egan, the labour candidate who has won the labour candidate who has won the kingswood by election this morning and who is soon to be sworn in as a member of parliament. But, uh, damian, first of all, i suppose i have to ask you, do you have nigel farage and his to party thank for your win . I havent seen all for your win . I havent seen all the results through. So. So i got the headline, so ill crack the figures. But no, ill crack the figures. But no, i think when were talking to people, we talked about the issues that people were raising as top ones with us was, um, nhs cost of living and policing. But cost of living and policing. But you know, certainly other issues as well were coming up. But um, but no, id like, id like to think that we won the election on our own back by working hard and getting a good message out there to the voters of kingswood i well, damian, im going to just let everyone be aware that we might have to cut away for an imminent result in wellingborough, but were going to stick with this for now. So, um, your view of the um, what was your view of the conservative partys campaign on focusing on a development of a few thousand houses . Liz. Did it few thousand houses . Liz. Did it cut through . Cut through . I think it did cut through in some areas, but i think also the conservatives were trying to make this campaign about anything but their record. So, you know, they focus on two things which was kind of development on on green belt. Development on on green belt. And, and the reality is that development on green belt has gone up ten fold under the conservative government, the local the local council, under the conservatives built conservatives have built thousands homes green thousands of homes on green belt. I think were belt. So i think people were a bit cynical about that. And then also on the fact also they went big on the fact that id be in a directly elected mayor in london, in a place called lewisham , and they place called lewisham, and they were making the argument that i couldnt know the area that i grew up in. All my family live in. Do you think that we focus too much about where people come from this country . You from in this country . Do you think politics some think that politics to some extent out on good extent loses out on good candidates of an candidates because of an excessive focus on localism . Um excessive focus on localism . Um i was getting worried about that in the campaign that it might be a really big hindrance, but the reality was a lot of people were coming up to me saying that they didnt like those tactics. And actually, if anything, saying anything, people were saying these positive id these sorts of positive that id gone else, they gone somewhere else, that they could, like, look into my experience and they could see for themselves. So in a way, for themselves. So so in a way, i wonder if it actually worked to my advantage. But i dont know, like, you never know really. There was, of course, a semi viral moment when the conservatives took a video of you speaking in lewisham, in london and a video of you speaking back in the west country and claiming you had changed your accent or adapted your accent depending on your circumstance. Whats your response to that . Response to that . I know, i know, it made me look really paranoid when i was doing Something Like about how i speak. So you saw it like when you really trying to, you start really trying to, like, you think about like, make sure you think about it and like the reality was that i for the first time, id i think for the first time, id always been nervous doing always been quite nervous doing videos a videos before. But in a by election just have try by election you just have to try not be. And i was just trying not to be. And i was just trying to be and obviously to be myself. And obviously youre surrounded by your family to be myself. And obviously youryou rrounded by your family to be myself. And obviously youryou know,ed by your family to be myself. And obviously youryou know, ii by your family to be myself. And obviously youryou know, i showedr family to be myself. And obviously youryou know, i showed mynily to be myself. And obviously youryou know, i showed my nam, and, you know, i showed my nam, my nam thought they sounded the same. It same. She didnt think it sounded even west country. Sounded even that west country. I wonder , what did you well, i wonder, what did you think of sir Keir Starmers pledge to say that sometimes local concerns on construction should be overridden, that the labour party would scrap parts of the green belt . What he would call the grey belt. Uh, do you call the grey belt. Uh, do you agree with him on that pledge . And do the people of kingswood mind . Mind . I think , like when i spoke to i think, like when i spoke to people overwhelming , it was people overwhelming, it was about like balance and proportion on, um, nobody wants to see the green belt all built oven to see the green belt all built over. Of course they dont. We dont want to lose all our countryside. We also dont want to lose what keeps areas like kingswood special. So does does anyone think there be kingswood special. So does does anydevelopment there be kingswood special. So does does anydevelopment encroachingbe kingswood special. So does does anydevelopment encroaching out . No development encroaching out . People were saying that they didnt think that was realistic enhen didnt think that was realistic either. Main thing that either. The main thing that bothered here was that bothered people here was that the Planning System is so geared towards developers that youre not getting the infrastructure in, so you cant get a dentist anywhere in bristol except a new nhs patients, and its really hard get a doctor. Um, hard to get a doctor. Um, theyre cutting buses, so youre adding homes to places where theres less transport pressure on School Places. So like the infrastructure around development was coming up as much as anything. And so i think much as anything. And so i think the questions are around, how do we the planning work we make the Planning System work better and work better for communities and work less in favour , less overly less in favour, less overly supportive of developers . I mean , egon, congratulations on your victory and thank you very much for joining us here on gb news forjoining us here on gb news special live results program. Special live results program. Thank you very much. Well uh, matt goodwin has returned to join us on the panel. He joins, of course, Stephen Pound, the former labour mp, and nigel farage, the ubiquitous celebrity. And so ive no doubt, matt, youre blown away by the charisma of the new labour mp. What did you think, stephen . What did you think, stephen . Youre not a big fan, nigel. I mean, that was the dullest interview of hes just won a bloody by election. He should be celebrated. I mean, probably celebrated. I mean, he probably hasnt days. Are hasnt slept for three days. Are you that wasnt what you sure that wasnt what i slept . Em em w get, you know. Oh, yeah, i get, you know. Oh, dear oh, dear. Yeah, i get, you know. Oh, deaareyh, dear. Yeah, i get, you know. Oh, deaare you ear. Yeah, i get, you know. Oh, deaare you saying that this new are you saying that this new crop of labour mps are you saying that this new crop of labour mp5 is perhaps not. Not as not not in the mould of the, i think, politicians . I think that politics in general has suffered over the last few decades by people going into it without real Life Experiences and i just think its become boring , dull, no its become boring, dull, no personality , be scared of personality, be scared of criticism on social media. And look, im sure mr regans a lovely chap and all that , but a lovely chap and all that, but that was not exactly inspiring. No. No. No. Its interesting nigel. Its interesting nigel. Sorry. Sorry. Because. Because ultimately there is always this sort of criticism of politics. Perhaps as it stands now, theres this sense that members of parliament perhaps dont have the gravitas that they used to. And perhaps that they used to. And perhaps im sorry to bring it back to this. Perhaps its because people who do have gravitas, who do have national profile, who do perhaps who would be a commanding presence on the green benches , arent so sure about benches, arent so sure about standing for election. Standing for election. Well, its a slight tangent. Maybe not for now, but i thought what happened . Um, outside mr what happened . Um, outside mr elle edwards home in bournemouth two nights ago was nearly a hundred people protesting for four hours. Family home screaming. I mean, stephens been an mp. Ive been an mp, you know. Can all put know. You know, we can all put up a bit of stick. Yeah. Yeah think that comes up, yeah i think that comes up, you know, you stick your head above the parapet and expect above the parapet and you expect of and think we take of course. And i think we take it and somebody earlier it and as somebody said earlier on, you know, were all grown ups but ive never seen ups now. But ive never seen anything this awful wasnt anything like this awful wasnt it. This is the worst it. This is this is the worst that ive ever seen. And in my own weve groups of own patch, weve got groups of people screaming people with megaphones screaming outside surgeries. To outside the mp surgeries. But to actually i actually get that, when i remember was stephen remember when i was stephen timms, when got stabbed timms, pps when he got stabbed and know, we know and of course, you know, we know weve lost two good mps. Yeah. No, its david amess. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Too easily forgotten that in the last ten years a lot of two political assassinations, the last ten years a lot of two politicgoodsassinations, the last ten years a lot of two politicgood people ions, the last ten years a lot of two politicgood people ins, the last ten years a lot of two politicgood people i know, people many good people i know, people in entrepreneurs in business, entrepreneurs who have thought about politics. Touch it with a they wont touch it with a bargepole theyre of bargepole and theyre scared of it. Theyre of it. Theyre theyre scared of it. Theyre also of social also scared of social media. Theyre the fact that theyre scared of the fact that every mobile phone camera. Every mobile phone is a camera. Theres know . Theres no privacy, you know . And lets not link this to and look, lets not link this to mr wouldnt be fair, mr regan. It wouldnt be fair, but general point, we not but a general point, we are not getting high calibre people going for parliament. You stand well, why dont you stand well, thats a very different question. Speak to goodwin. Speak to goodwin. Okay, ive you so okay, well, ive asked you so many , matt. Were expecting the many, matt. Were expecting the wellingborough result in the next five, ten minutes. This is getting really, really close now. Just remind remind people watching what were expecting from reform uk. What would be a good result for them. Perhaps we got a slightly higher result than we were expecting in kingswood. What are we looking at in wellingborough. Yeah, so i think in kingswood youve seen the best by election result to date, 10. 4. Result for reform to date, 10. 4. Thats bang in line with their National Polling average. So what richard tice is able to say today isnt a mirage. Today is this isnt a mirage. The party is delivering on its National Polling ratings. Now, given that wellingborough is a stronger pro brexit seat , you stronger pro brexit seat, you know, there is an argument that perhaps reform should be doing a little bit better than their National Polling average in that particular seat. I know theyve been throwing lot more. You been throwing a lot more. You know, people the ground, know, uh, people on the ground, theyve campaigning quite theyve been campaigning quite hard. I mean, guess hard. And look, i mean, i guess a scenario for , for a best Case Scenario for, for richard tice and reform, maybe they come out, know, 13, 14, they come out, you know, 13, 14, 15, like that. Theyre 15, Something Like that. Theyre able to say, look, actually, you know, were now a third place party. The dems, party. Were above the lib dems, were the greens, were were above the greens, were now alternative to now the serious alternative to the parties. This is, the big two parties. This is, you , this is still already you know, this is still already i think , a good night for, for i think, a good night for, for reform though really really interesting stuff because to some extent all by elections have a narrative all by elections are thought of in the past of being to some extent a moment or a part of a journey. We can point to the by elections that were turning points in the rise of ukip. We can point to eastleigh , we can can point to eastleigh, we can point to, uh, rochester and strood, to clacton. Uh, will strood, to clacton. Uh, will tonight be one of those turning points, matt. Well, lets see what lets see the just how high the vote goes here in wellingborough. I think what is clear is that reform of established themselves as a, um, you know, a party that is delivering on the polling expectations. And lets be honest, a lot of people were sniffy about reform a few months ago in the polling community. They vote was they said their vote was inflated. They said it was exaggerated. Well, there no exaggerated. Well, there was no evidence was. It evidence to show that it was. It was not the case. Now, was clearly not the case. Now, if you look at whos voting for reform, 1 in 4 of Boris Johnsons voters have gone over to already. About to reform already. Uh, about about the brexit about a quarter of the brexit vote. Lot more growth , vote. Theres a lot more growth, actually, for reform than people appreciate it. Theres lot appreciate it. Theres a lot more growth, from the more growth, both from the undecided labour voters and undecided and labour voters and disillusioned conservatives. So lets see where they are. Weve got you know, weve got the rochdale by election, weve got local coming you local elections coming up. You know, going a busy know, its going to be a busy spring. Got potentially spring. Weve got potentially a long, summer with small long, hot summer with small boats and of that stuff boats and all of that stuff thats to kick in. Weve thats going to kick in. Weve weve seen the remarkable statistics this week, 1. 3 of people who arrived on the small boats have been removed from the country. 1. 3. This is all helping reform. Its all adding to a sense that nobody in number 10 is really in control of these big issues, which course are big issues, which of course are the most important issues for 2019. Conservative stopping 2019. Conservative is stopping the number one priority. I think one of one of the things that were really you need to look in wellingborough is to look at in wellingborough is theres many, many more. About three many candidates. Three times as many candidates. I think its about 10 or 11 candidates. Thatll give candidates. Yeah so thatll give us very good idea of us a very, very good idea of where the votes are splitting to whats happening there. Whats actually happening there. Theres candidate whats actually happening there. Theres in candidate whats actually happening there. Theres in wellingborough standing in wellingborough on stop itll be stop the boats. Itll be interesting to see that. Thats all they up. All they stand up. Theres also nick the flying brick from the Monster Raving Loony Party. I them, i love i love them, i love them, theyre a great party. Also wood isnt also on nick wood isnt there, is you think is there, which is you think is sort of the anti forest party. Where where are we . Where where are we . Um, but but that would be very, interesting to see um, but but that would be very, happens. � esting to see what happens. But i think when you said if reform in reform uk do well in wellingborough, does this change the weather. I think the weathers already. Weathers changed already. In all think this all honesty i think this this really not just a flash in really is not just a flash in the this an the pan. This is an extraordinary result and it gives pleasure to say gives me no pleasure to say that, to be perfectly honest. Why why not as a as why not . Why not as a as a labour man . Why doesnt it delight that theres a split delight you that theres a split on right . On the right . Doesnt delight me because it doesnt delight me because i anything which i dont like anything which actually insecurity and actually leads to insecurity and instability government. Instability in government. And i think moment we think that at the moment we reform its so utterly reform uk, its so utterly radical its so totally radical and its so totally radical. Stephen, people want but stephen, people want change arguing change and youre arguing for the quo on as it the status quo to go on as it is. Know, youre arguing is. You know, youre arguing really. Tweedledum and tweedledee and what what reform voters are saying is we actually want change. I agree, nigel, but the thing is, you will go above all for proportional representation. You will youll be will do that. Youll be ludicrous for not to have a ludicrous for you not to have a representative, a Parliament Representative of the voters wouldnt be bad. Well, im sorry if you lose the constituency link then. Then sorry. Link then. Then im sorry. I think democracy is. A way through but there is a way through that. Blair and you were that. Tony blair and you were there. Tony blair appointed roy jenkins a look at jenkins to say, have a look at this a proposal. This. Come back with a proposal. The Jenkins Commission came back in 98 and said, as youve just said, man or woman that said, the man or woman that represents guildford, for arguments sake is a very important link that works in our system. So what you do is you make guildford a bigger constituency. You have a second vote with a top up , constituency. You have a second vote with a top up, and were already doing it on the london assembly. The Welsh Assembly , assembly. The Welsh Assembly, the scottish parliament. And that means that any view in britain with significant support over , say, 5, gets, gets voice. And its known by the wouldnt that be better as additional member system ave ave plus additional member system mixed member proportional. These are words but its used in are all words but its used in new zealand. But jenkins put this forward. Jenkins put this forward back in 98. And i actually think it gives it gives it gives us a stephen quite rightly says knowing who the bodies you complain to. But nigel and stephen, it also gives you two tier mps. It gives you mps also gives you two tier mps. It gives you mp5 from the list and mp5 from the constituency and one of the big criticisms of electing people by a party list , rather than by a party list, rather than by a constituency link, is its the party bosses who choose who go on the top of the favoured son, favoured sons and daughters, radical people. Youre right, its imperfect. Youre right, its imperfect. Youre right, its imperfect. But you are speaking to the human being that never in the history of British Electoral politics have more votes be given for such little reward. Given for such little reward. You have actually mentioned that before. So what . I know im somewhat bitter. I know for me, i miss it. Im bitter for one mp, you know. Yeah, yeah. But i was most closely involved with the situation in Northern Ireland where we didnt just we had just have av and pr, we had a thing called the dtv. Well, we had the da johnson. Thats what used the european parliament. Yeah. Copied from that. Which is we copied from that. And sort fettered by and it was sort of fettered by the even more complicated the it was even more complicated than that. And thats where some of peculiar formula of its a peculiar formula that is votes. Is applied to the votes. And it just removes that sense that you know, what youre voting for. Absolutely, sir, well, absolutely, sir, because youve multiple because youve got multiple votes constituency. Votes within constituency. It doesnt does not. Nigel farage defending nigel farage you defending the french sounding dont forget. Im sorry. Forget. Sorry im sorry. We actually had thing we actually had a thing called the droop quotient. Exactly. I cant believe where this conversation has gone. Going droop cogent, gone. Were going droop cogent, steve and steve, shall we return to reality in 1999 . All those years ago, i could say to voters in the south east of england, if you vote for me and we get 910 of the vote, i will become one of your meps. Do you know what they jolly well did . But you know, everybody talks about reform and all election reform until they win a majority. And on the numbers were seeing, were looking at a labour majority in this election. So i think labour will will hint and theyll show a bit of leg when it comes to pr and so and so on. But the National Polling, were still looking at a pretty comprehensive labour victory. Whats happened in look whats happened in london. In london. In london weve gone in the direction see rishi the other direction to see rishi sunaks reaction tomorrow morning. Its going to be interesting to know, dont to see because you know, dont forget going 11 by forget this is going to of 11 by elections. Hell have hell have presided his one, one presided over his only one, one of that was boris of those. And that was Boris Johnsons seat. This johnsons former seat. So this guy election loser. And guy is an election loser. And remember what they said he remember what they said when he came adults are back in came in. The adults are back in charge while the adults are losing pretty everything losing pretty much everything theyre moment. How does he respond the day we into recession, ian. And we go into recession, ian. And that was of the five pledges that was one of the five pledges that was one of the five pledges that made in the country. That sunak made in the country. And thats important, i and thats very important, i think, how does respond think, matt, how does he respond to this . E g sacked suella because hes sacked suella braverman. Has employed david braverman. He has employed David Cameron fundamentally , some cameron fundamentally, some people might argue hes alienated. Did a certain section alienated. Did a certain section of the vote that used to vote conservative in his might be looking to other parties. Hes lost half of the conservative vote. Well he hasnt lost only half of the 2019 conservative voters are currently saying theyre going to vote conservative in this election. Only half of them. Okay, look , look, could say okay, look, look, you could say hes to build upon the hes failed to build upon the conservative party going conservative party is going to keep sunak in office to soak up a heavy election defeat. Theyre not going him before the not going to dump him before the next id be amazed next election. Id be amazed if they did. Couldnt six mps. They did. Couldnt have six mps. Going to him theyre going to leave him there for five years. But the deeper problem facing the conservative party is if you look after a heavy look at whos left after a heavy defeat, southern, all defeat, all southern, all oxbridge, socially oxbridge, mainly socially liberal, red wall mps. Liberal, no red wall mps. No, i dont think theres any northern mps so the northern mps all gone. So the party then is going to face a real dilemma. What is it . What doesit real dilemma. What is it . What does it believe . Who is it going does it believe . Who is it going to win back . How are it going to create a new electorate . Having lost all of these working class voters these people voters, all of these people from, know, the east coast from, you know, the east coast and north and the and the north west and the industrial heartlands and enormous opportunity , actually, industrial heartlands and encsomethingortunity , actually, industrial heartlands and encsomething newiity , actually, industrial heartlands and encsomething new in , actually, industrial heartlands and encsomething new in british. Lly, for something new in british. Well every 5000 years you well once every 5000 years you get a sea change in politics, you know, 1918 labour party you know, 1918 the labour party won a remarkable number of mps in 1924. Ramsay matt becomes the first labour Prime Minister the liberal party never, ever got back from that. Canada back in 1992, saw saw a conservative party in government, a reunification of reform and the progressive conservatives into the conservative. They went down to one seat, as you remember, two seats, two seats, two to. The really interesting thing is the number outrageous . Sir, i was sorry, i was 100 out. Yeah. I was always told, you yeah. I was always told, you know, when i first cut my teeth in politics, i was told that labour would never win again because had gone, the because the docks had gone, the mines gone, the shipbuilding mines had gone, the shipbuilding had steel. And in had gone, the steel. And in fact, the labour Core Industrial vote now vote had disappeared. It was now a class country with a middle class country with middle class voters. Party became so the labour party became middle class and, well, prescott said, know, they of said, you know, they sort of keeping the bidets. Keeping coal in the bidets. Know, they with that you know, they were with that middle but and the middle class. But and so the point had actually point was we had to actually create a new constituency. And thats a situation nigel has put his on it. His finger absolutely on it. Where constituency at where is that constituency at the its in the sort of the moment . Its in the sort of rural hinterlands suffolk, rural hinterlands of suffolk, but actually spread but that doesnt actually spread far but this happened in 1997. But this happened in 1997. But this happened in 1997. All wrote endless people all wrote endless opinion columns that the conservative was doomed, conservative party was doomed, was would never rise was over, would never rise again, especially after 2001 when the when the conservative party, after four years of the labour party in power, added one extra seat, robert total castle point. Point. Ooh, it was really good. Really good question. Ill get back to you on this. I thought i was pretty impressive. They just got one extra seat. Well look at that. But i think it was castle. They cycled through a couple of leaders looking around for strategies, and they settled upon David Cameron. But remember that blair there had , and to be fair, still has had, and to be fair, still has the most extraordinary charisma. I mean, i you know, i watched blair as an mep when he took over the presidency of the european council. I mean, the european council. I mean, the guy, the guy you can agree or disagree, forget the politics. The guy has an aura. The guy has an aura. Hes in that pantheon with thatcher. He can speak and bill clinton, he doesnt need notes. He knows what he wants to talk about. He gets it. Blair was an astonishing figure at and i didnt like much of what he did, but he was astonishing figure starmer figure and starmer and starmer is is the really is not, which is the really interesting part of all of this. And thats why thats why potentially , despite the first potentially, despite the first past the post system , british past the post system, british politics is more open to change than its ever been. Weve got a conservative party that is seen by half of its 2019 voters as having betrayed what it promised, and literally in the red wall, its betrayal of the immigration stuff and everything else. They are furious. A labour party led by a man who professionally is very competent and very clever and very decent and very clever and very decent and honest, but hes got no charisma at all. Honest. You turning on every leader election pledge honest. Leader election pledge honest. What i mean is, is not a liar. Hes a flip flopper. Thats a very different. Ah. Whats the distinction between being a flip flopper and being a liar . Well, because you say one thing one moment, you believe thing at one moment, you believe in then change. Ones in and then you change. Ones a pragmatist, changes pragmatist, one changes their mind a lot, and the otherjust lies. That is not a liar. You know, bons that is not a liar. You know, boris labelled as liar. No boris got labelled as a liar. No one says that. Starmer is a liar. They that hes a flip liar. They say that hes a flip flopper. Ive never seen ive never well what the never seen. Well see what the other think of this. But other boys think of this. But ive never seen two more uninspiring leaders in personality terms in life. Personality terms in my life. And thats where the gap is. You see that in the polling. I mean, starmers ratings are low. About davey . I low. What about ed davey . I mean, know, people mean, blair, you know, people forget had a personal rating blair had a personal rating of plus 50. You just dont see that. You dont see that today. Starmer is on plus 12 sunak on 20. His governments minus 60. His governments minus 60. His governments where Prince Andrew is and the royal ratings. Right. I mean this is a very unpopular government. So is not setting the world on whats going the world on fire. Whats going to interesting is, of course, to be interesting is, of course, if these by elections, if both of them go, go, labours way, of them go, go, go labours way, labour end up winning the labour end up end up winning the election, how soon it until election, how soon is it until labour to start breaking labour have to start breaking their manifesto pledges . Because what over what theyre going to take over is economy thats in is an economy thats in a toilet, as we learned today, no serious. You serious growth strategy. You know, large Scale Migration , know, large Scale Migration, clearly the wrong kind of migration contribute fighting not a lot to the economy. London not a lot to the economy. London centric, uh , high tax overloaded centric, uh, high tax overloaded state. I mean, you know, if you were keir starmer, would you want to take this . Listen to wes streeting when you talk about a radical party, what wes streeting saying the streeting is saying about the nhs extraordinary. Nhs is extraordinary. What. Thats what. Thats what. Yes, thats i agree with street. I agree with look, if were about politicians were talking about politicians in of thatcher and in the calibre of thatcher and blair isnt wes streeting someone who can command a role in a way that keir starmer never could . I to say that w to say that i do could . I to say that i do think i have to say that i do think hes a very impressive, if in fact probably the most impressive said that the impressive when he said that the nhs a service, not a shrine. Nhs is a service, not a shrine. But i the point about but i think the point about reform youre going to have reform uk, youre going to have to start getting some councillors, youre to councillors, youre going to have building up your have to Start Building up your urban, your actual, your have to Start Building up your urbarin your actual, your have to Start Building up your urbarin the your actual, your have to Start Building up your urbarin the town actual, your have to Start Building up your urbarin the town hall. Il, your base in the town hall. Youre absolutely right. Youve but but youve got takes time. But but stephen, other point that youve got takes time. But but stersort. Other point that youve got takes time. But but stersort of other point that youve got takes time. But but stersort of half1er point that youve got takes time. But but stersort of half mutteredthat youve got takes time. But but stersort of half muttered and you sort of half muttered and you sort of half muttered and you youve got a very short you were youve got a very short amount of time, nigel. Was that ed davey . The lib dems should be booming moment. Theyre booming at the moment. Theyre going nowhere. Its just not coming up well, its just not coming up to 3 am, a crucial year starts here. Votes 2020 for the people decide. Well by election result is imminent. Weve just learned that labour have won the first by election of the night in kingswood. The wellingborough result is, as i say, imminent. Well bring you that as soon as possible. This is gb news, britains election channel at three in the morning. Well take you through the night here on gb news. Britains election channel. Earlier we spoke to the successful labour candidate in kingswood, damian egan. Heres how he reacted. Egan. Heres how he reacted. But now id like, id like to think that we won the election on our own back by working hard and getting a good message out there to the voters of kingswood i and heres how gb news presenter nigel farage reacted to the result. Earlier right. The conservative party is not right. In 14 years of conservative government the whole agenda has shifted ever leftwards. This is a conservative party of big state, high tax and mass immigration. This is not a right wing conservative party. Its not even centre right. Its actually just the left of the political spectrum. There is now a massive gap on the moderate gender thin, sensible, grown up centre right of british politics. And what youve seen in kingswood and what you will see in wellingborough in an hours time, gap is beginning time, is that gap is beginning to filled. To be filled. Gb news National Reporter Theo Chikomba is in thornbury at the count for kingswood. Theo the count for kingswood. Theo what is happening on the ground . Good morning to you. Yes, good morning to you. Yes, well, very good morning to you. Just after 3 am. And the newly elected damian egan has been speaking to gb news and hes saying work starts now. And of course, they anticipated it will be wrapping up around three. But it was about an hour earlier. Now, we do know this was a vacant seat following Chris Skidmore leaving that seat following his almost protest against the governments green policy. Now, in terms of what weve heard from him, this morning, hes saying hes looking forward to work on some of those issues, as weve heard about cost of living infrastructure in the town centres. One example he mentioned was dentist. We were overin mentioned was dentist. We were over in saint pauls just last week where hundreds of people were queuing up for a dental appointment , were queuing up for a dental appointment, and hes saying this is one of many issues, including School Places , which including School Places, which people were saying to him as he campaigned for around five weeks. Now Daniel Damian egan also say in kingswood across the country, 14 years of conservative government have sucked the hope out of our country with a feeling that no matter how hard you work, you cant just move forward now we also heard from reforms candidate rupert lowe, who spoke to us just a few moments ago , to us just a few moments ago, and he was saying reforms share 10 of the vote in kingswood represents its best performing in a by election so far in this parliament, and is up from 5 from four that the party achieved in the tamworth and mid bedfordshire by elections respectively. In october 2023. So the work here for damian egan is going to begin. He is confident , is going to begin. He is confident, hes happy, he thanked his family and all of those who helped him to campaign over the last couple of weeks. But of course the journey begins from today. From today. Theo chikomba thank you very much for bringing us that latest report. We are going to be talking about the latest results. Of course, weve heard from kingswood and were still expecting welling borough to come to us here is the scene of the count in wellingborough. Not yet. Are we seeing candidates up on stage , but we had been told on stage, but we had been told we were expecting the result around 3 00. So were keeping our eagle beady eyes on this result. But joining me now our eagle beady eyes on this result. But joining me now in the studio is Mark Littlewood, the studio is Mark Littlewood, the leader of the popular conservatives popcorn and Aaron Bastani , co founder of novara bastani, co founder of novara media. Now. Mark if theres one media. Now. Mark if theres one thing we can say about the results weve got so far, the results weve got so far, the result that the conservatives arent popular , we know thats arent popular, we know thats true enough. I mean , i think there are i mean, i think there are some things that the conservatives can do to become more popular. It was epic more popular. It was an epic piece of trolling by me call piece of trolling by me to call my new initiative popular conservativism. But i think conservativism. But i think conservatism can be popular, and my guess is i heard rupert lowe on your show earlier. I mean, he was running on a fairly conservative platform right . I mean, he was talking about a smaller state getting taxed down, tackling the quangocracy and bureaucracy. I imagine and the bureaucracy. I imagine he appealed to quite a good number of conservative voters or conservative inclined people. I conservative inclined people. I would just say this about the kingswood result. You cant put a particularly great gloss on it, right . A 16 or so percent swing against the conservatives is but but not as horrific is bad, but but not as horrific as it has been for the conservatives in recent by elections. Kingswood wont exist at the next election, but lets imagine that the election this autumn was held on the same boundanes autumn was held on the same boundaries as 2019. Kingswood would have been, i think, the 337th seat labour would win. So they would have need to win a seat like that to have a majority of 20. They won it, but in a by election circumstance and not by a colossal margin. So im not saying. And not by a colossal margin. So im not saying. That the result im not saying. That the result for the conservatives is good in kingswood, but its probably not a apocalyptic or oblivion like enhen but Mark Littlewood, if we were talking about this by election in kingswood in isolation , had we not seen the isolation, had we not seen the results in some of these other in mid bedfordshire, for example, overturning a colossal majority , this would seem like majority, this would seem like one of the highest labour tory to labour swings in a by election in history. In fact, if we ignore this parliament, it would, i think, be the highest labour to tory to labour swing in a by election in history. But thats exactly my point, tom. Were obviously comparing the conservatives from a very, tom. Were obviously comparing the low arvatives from a very, tom. Were obviously comparing the low base. es from a very, tom. Were obviously comparing the low base. Rightm a very, tom. Were obviously comparing the low base. Right but very, tom. Were obviously comparing the low base. Right but this, very low base. Right but this result is not as bad as mid bedfordshire by quite some margin. Not as apocalyptic. It margin. Not as apocalyptic. It is still bad for the conservatives but nothing on those scales. So are you those scales. So are you potentially seeing just the early signs of a perhaps modest swing back to the conservatives . I dont think theres enough in the National Polling to make those judgements yet. There was one poll suggesting that the lead, the labour lead, had been cut to 12, but we saw earlier this week still a colossal margin easily enough labour this week still a colossal m. Win, easily enough labour this week still a colossal m. Win, butily enough labour this week still a colossal m. Win, but possiblyih labour this week still a colossal m. Win, but possiblyih uptick ur to win, but possibly an uptick in conservative fortunes. Well, thatis in conservative fortunes. Well, that is the brightest spin i have heard today on. Im sorry, thats rude to call it spin. Thats the brightest analysis i have heard for the conservatives prospects. Um, bastani , youre not um, Aaron Bastani, youre not a big fan of keir starmer or of this leadership of the labour party, but surely you have to admit theyre doing something right. Uh, well, theyve done very well here, but i dont think this what were seeing right now, i dont think theres a resounding endorsement of keir starmer. I think theres a few things at play. Youve obviously talked great deal talked about it a great deal this evening. Conservative voters at home. And this evening. Conservative vactually at home. And this evening. Conservative vactually think, at home. And this evening. Conservative vactually think, asit home. And this evening. Conservative vactually think, as you me. And this evening. Conservative vactually think, as you said and this evening. Conservative vactually think, as you said ind i actually think, as you said in kingswood, its a this is a okay result for the conservatives given weve seen given the massacres weve seen in the last six months to a yeah in the last six months to a year. That difference year. Um, and that difference between margin between between that margin between labour tories, labour and the tories, of course, slightly smaller course, was slightly smaller than vote. I than the reform vote. And i think in a general election where constituency is still where that constituency is still there tories probably there, the tories would probably keep it. The big thing weve not mentioned the big thing is mentioned this. The big thing is Interest Rates, right. If Interest Rates, right. If interest have been cut by Interest Rates have been cut by half a percent and if weve just seen a little bit of Economic Growth than recession , growth rather than a recession, these things that are these are the things that are going to make difference in going to make the difference in a like kingswood at a a seat like kingswood at a general election. Aaron. People dont necessarily have , uh, dont necessarily have, uh, month by month changing rolling mortgages. People will have fixed home mortgages for perhaps two years, meaning that if Interest Rates come down by 0. 5 or whatever, therell be a lot of people who are going from mortgages at sort of 2 interest to mortgages at maybe 4 interest, which is still doubling the Interest Rates. I mean, its less bad rates. I mean, its less bad than it would have been, but its still a situation for them. Thatis its still a situation for them. That is getting worse than it was before. Even if Interest Rates are down. Sure. The point is the tories havent got a story right now. They havent a story in they havent got a story in terms of inflation being where they it be. Fallen, they need it to be. Its fallen, but its ticking but by the way, its ticking back again. Mortgage rates back up again. Mortgage rates and rates generally and Interest Rates generally are still high growth is still very high growth is nowhere they thought maybe we can out of a hat can pull a rabbit out of a hat with regards tax cuts. Thats with regards to tax cuts. Thats now spiked. Were going to now been spiked. Were going to see potentially a two tax cut thats going thats not going to happen enhen thats not going to happen either. Its really hard to either. So its really hard to see apart the over 65, see how apart from the over 65, the people whove bought their houses theyre houses outright, theyre going to vote for the tories regardless. Generally speaking, take it. For the take those out of it. For the working age population, then the conservatives them conservatives have to offer them something. Theyre something. Doesnt mean theyre going by way. Going to vote labour by the way. They might bother. And they just might not bother. And right between interest right now, between Interest Rates, inflation rates, between inflation and between of between probably an absence of tax very much , tax cuts, there isnt very much, i think, by the way, we had the pleasure of seeing rishi sunak on monday in darlington in a very man, very genial, very competent man, very genial, very competent man, very genial, very sweet. But look, if your very sweet. But look, if your mortgage bills are up £600 on a year ago and your energy bill is double what it was three years ago, thats not going to cut the mustard. And i think starmer is confusing people. But i think kingswood particular is kingswood in particular is interesting because probably interesting because he probably can the line. Oh, interesting. So sorry. Who can just get over the line i think i think this is an indication that labour will probably get majority on that result. And of course its not even going to exist next time. Lets say the big variable, say 30 to 40. The big variable, rather than a 1997 style 20 watershed. Yeah, the big variable reform. And well watershed. Yeah, the big vari about reform. And well watershed. Yeah, the big vari about the arm. And well watershed. Yeah, the big vari about the second d well watershed. Yeah, the big vari about the second resultl watershed. Yeah, the big vari about the second result in see about the second result in a minute. Look if reform get a national 15 more National Vote of, say, 15 more than ukip got 2015, which than ukip got in 2015, which would extraordinary, the would be extraordinary, then the tories big trouble. If we tories are in big trouble. If we do have of do have some kind of rapprochement, like we saw between party and the between the brexit party and the tories 2019, different tories in 2019, different story. Were talking but again, were talking about this idea of splits on the right they used to be right and mark. They used to be five families. Some people now say are six families. Say that there are six families. You head. One is the you head. One of them is the right just to divided. No because theres not an electoral divide there. I think what a Political Party is what hurts a Political Party is when you get divisions around personalities, you know, one faction trying to dislodge the Prime Minister, another faction rallying behind him, different candidates positioning. Thats damaging. I dont think theres any in a large any problem in a large mainstream Political Party having whole people having a whole bunch of people trying forward slightly trying to put forward slightly different nuanced analyses different and nuanced analyses and views. Thats what popcorn is about with made it very plain. Were not trying to get rid of rishi sunak as Prime Minister. Is that why you disinvited simon clarke . It is attending your yeah your launch event. Yeah simon clarke, former clarke, of course, the former cabinet minister who called for rishi to resign, thats right. That why we yes. That is why we disinvited him. Ive got a great deal of respect for simon. I mean, Andrea Jenkins as mean, i know Andrea Jenkins as well as called for sunak to go. Theyre entitled to individually to make those but think to make those calls. But i think its of stuff that its that sort of stuff that undermines confidence in a party. Got party. Not that youve got a group one nation and group called one nation and another the another group called the conservative growth group, and another popcorn. Another group called popcorn. So the dont about the electorate dont care about that divisive. Its when that being divisive. Its when you marshal yourself as a circular firing thats , i circular firing squad thats, i think, supremely unhelpful and actually , for all of the poor actually, for all of the poor opinion polls for the conservatives i think theres quite a lot more intellectual vigour on the right of british politics at the moment than on the left. Who are the 5 or 6 families in the labour party . What the big intellectual what are the big intellectual discussions that the labour party having not very many party are having not very many of them. W 5 mark, what of them. Mark, what what although, mark, what what some might that some people might say is that this criticism of many this was the criticism of many people, of tony blair, that he squashed dissent, that he forced everyone to read from a little pledge card that we had sound bite politics, politicians all sounding the same, and all of those criticisms might well have been true , that there was very been true, that there was very little dissent, and it was all squashed out, but it was electorally successful. Was. But under blair, you it was. But under blair, you wouldnt have seen this fiasco happening in rochdale. Can happening in rochdale. I can tell you that would never tell you that that would never have occurred under the blairite labour vetting im labour party. The vetting im not privy to what exactly the vetting processes are that the labour party has got, but theyre going to have to be completely overhauled once again. So that doesnt suggest, well, necessarily say well, you cant necessarily say its ill discipline. I mean, they armed and about it, they armed and hard about it, but that the party but it suggests that the Party Machine necessary. The machine is not necessary. The slickest most focussed it it slickest and most focussed it it could so look, i mean the could be so look, i mean the labour party is well ahead in the opinion polls. Theres no doubt about that. I think on all historical comparisons the conservatives will require the biggest since biggest swing back since democracy began. Theyre to democracy began. If theyre to prevail the next election. Prevail at the next election. But its very febrile out there. It really is. And i know everybody talks about the underside kids and the dont knows, but i think theres a vast swathe of people who have not made up their mind one way or other. Theres a heck of or the other. Theres a heck of a to play that might a lot to play for that might play a lot to play for that might play labours hands or the play into labours hands or the conservatives all reform, or indeed other small indeed one of the other small parties. Pisani. Parties. Aaron pisani. You make of that . What do you make of that . What do you make of that . Well, would say that there well, i would say that there are few fiascos under are a fair few fiascos under tony the labour party. Tony blair and the labour party. Of there was the frank of course, there was the frank dobson, Ken Livingstone farrago in of the london mayor. So in terms of the london mayor. So you of the you know, his control of the party wasnt always top Party Machine wasnt always top notch, although before it notch, although before 1997 it certainly what i would say certainly was what i would say is families is in terms of the five families in the tory party, you can do that. You can have that wonderful environment and atmosphere of academic and intellectual debate. If you have a leader at the top a charismatic leader at the top whos the shots . The whos calling the shots . The tories okay. If tories dont have that. Okay. If youve Harold Wilson or youve got Harold Wilson or youve got Harold Wilson or youve Margaret Thatcher, youve got Harold Wilson or youcan Margaret Thatcher, youve got Harold Wilson or youcan have argaret thatcher, youve got Harold Wilson or youcan have those thatcher, you can have those conversations. And when push comes to shove, the gaffer decides tories not have decides the tories do not have that. I think thats what that. And i think thats what theyre most. Look theyre lacking the most. Look gordon brown in 2010 gets 28 of the theres hung the vote. Theres a Hung Parliament happen for parliament that can happen for the it can happen. You the tories. It can happen. You have to have a very efficient vote right votes in the right places. Youve not got the person to do it. I look at rishi sunak i great sunak and i think great chancellor, the great finance secretary, he a great undersecretary to the treasury. Undersecretary to the treasury. Right. | undersecretary to the treasury. Right. I do not think pm and thats no thats no larry, you just described him as sweet, which think could be damning which i think could be damning with praise. And its not with faint praise. And its not meant be an insult to him. Meant to be an insult to him. And i think, finally, ill say this. The problem for the tories is we can talk about ideas and we can talk about polling and resources media. Resources and the media. They dont personnel, resources and the media. They dont personnel , they dont have the personnel, they dont have the personnel, they do not have talent the do not have the talent on the tory ben habib, whos tory benches. Ben habib, whos running the for the brexit running for the for the brexit party, i keep doing that sort of reform. Ben ive met him reform. Ben habib ive met him many times on here. Very impressive more impressive impressive man. More impressive than 90 of tory mps. And mark isnt there something margaret something in that Margaret Thatcher, when she was Prime Minister, would have people who disagreed her in her disagreed with her in her cabinet. She would relish that. Shed want people to challenge her and shed want to win , but her and shed want to win, but shed want to have that fierce debate over the cabinet table. Every single biography of every single minister of hers says the same thing. And yet your great same thing. And yet your great friend liz truss, when she became Prime Minister, was accused of having no dissent around her cabinet table. Do you think that was a big mistake . Yes, i think it probably was. And theres a danger, perhaps, thats being repeated by rishi as well. That the cabinet is not very big tent ish. Right. So liz put around the table, i think there was only one cabinet minister who had not voted for her in the leadership election. I havent done the math on the sunak cabinet, but about the same. Im be careful though. I mean , Margaret Thatcher, i think mean, Margaret Thatcher, i think theres anecdote about her theres an anecdote about her early office where she sort early in office where she sort of had a piece of paper on the left hand side of it, wrote down the other cabinet ministers who were who agreed her on the were who agreed with her on the right side, the cabinet right hand side, the cabinet ministers think ministers who didnt. They think she find the who. She she could only find the who. She could find initially could only find two. Initially so was a purging of so then there was a purging of the you need, you need, you the wet. You need, you need, you need to stress test your ideas, but you need allies around just ideological wets. Also, to some extent it was also, to some extent a personality and also, frankly, poshness. Of patrician yeah. And a kind of patrician , attitude which she railed , an attitude which she railed against. But yeah, i mean, look, i mean governments of any stripe need to be broadly based. You need to be broadly based. You need to be a broad church, not so broad that youre a cathedral, but a broad church nevertheless. And i think thats the best way to stress test policies, try to get the right answers. You know , not to be answers. You know, not to be worried or concerned about internal debate as long as its about policy, as long as its not political manoeuvring. Not about political manoeuvring. Hmm. Uh, now, earlier we hmm. Uh, now, earlier we spoke to Jacob Rees Mogg, who is, of course, a neighbouring seat to that of kingswood. Uh, seat to that of kingswood. Uh, lets have a listen to what Jacob Rees Mogg said when he was in thornbury. For us. He had a message for Prime Minister rishi sunak. Ba. 2 you should always listen to the voters. If voters arent voting for you, you have to ask why . Why are we not inspiring conservatives to turn out and vote in these circumstances . What is when you look back to what is it when you look back to Margaret Thatcher, you could see that was doing things that that she was doing things that were but necessary and were unpopular but necessary and she needed to get them done. They were essential the they were essential for the benefit of the country, but they werent leading to werent going to be, leading to people cheering from the rooftops as they were implemented. For implemented. The question for us now our message now is what should our message to conservatives be . Well, that was Jacob Rees Mogg speaking at the last result. The result in kingswood, where of course, the labour party won an extra mp against the conservative party were still waiting for that result in wellingborough we were told to expect that result 17 minutes ago, but it should be coming very, very soon indeed. Delighted to be joined back by james crouch from opinium research, now james opinium has come under some fire in the polling community for perhaps having smaller labour leads than some of the other polling organisations. But you did get it bang on in kingswood and you do Something Different with your turnout modelling. Could you explain what that means . Explain what that means . So at the moment what we do is we say that theres a very large number of dont knows and they are generally coming from one place. Theyre generally coming from the conservative party. So what that means is that if you just leave them as dont know, the actual people who go into that final headline figure tend to look much more labour than the country would do generally. So what we do is we take them out and then we reweight the final people who were in our poll to actually look like how the country voted last time. So you kind of get around the fact that loads of conservatives are saying, dont know, loads of skew, the dont knows concern live at five and do some clever maths. Do some clever maths. Yes. And you think thats a more accurate way of doing the polling than just ignoring the dont knows. Theres , its more well, theres, its more accurate than just accurate probably than just ignonng accurate probably than just ignoring the dont knows but also weve learned as an also weve all learned as an industry from 2015, 2017 especially to not do artificial things with the dont knows. So not to automate assume theyll go back to the conservative party or, you know, move over in whatever direction to do sensible things that make using real data from last time, yes, is much better , but also yes, is much better, but also not to do artificial things with your polling to move people around because you make assumptions about how they might vote, which was the big, big problem in 2017 when people saw the Labour Party Rise and it didnt fit with the media narrative. And polling organisations almost said, well, that cant be right, lets do some clever and ridiculous maths to make it look more like we feel like it should be. Well, theres of course its every single electoral event is always different from the last one, and youre always having that struggle of basically fighting the last battle when actually really you should be fighting the next one. Um, so 2015, 2017, we had an awful lot of basic electoral events to work through. Fortunately, we managed to get the referendum right. 2017 orders and industry. Right. 2017 orders and industry. We all had the problems. We all had for 2019. I think we managed to work through a lot of those. So even though i know that we managed to get it spot on, actually the industry as a whole all to do pretty well all managed to do it pretty well is fair to say that the is its fair to say that the opinion Polling Industry in the last few years has been doing a lot a lot more lot better, getting a lot more things, lot more on, and things, a lot more spot on, and bustani much attention bustani how much attention should actors be should political actors be paying should political actors be paying polls , given that they paying to polls, given that they are a snapshot, not a prediction, as Lord Ashcroft always says . Does it matter if a poll uh, does it matter if a poll says one thing eight months out from a general election . Well, i think in an election context, theyre hugely important. And this in important. And we saw this in 2017. Fascinating. You talk 2017. Its fascinating. You talk about because theres what about this because theres what sociologists reflexivity. Sociologists call reflexivity. You phenomenon. People you have a phenomenon. People look phenomenon and it look at the phenomenon and it creates feedback loop. And creates a feedback loop. And what saw in the 2017 general what we saw in the 2017 general election was of course labour start quite poorly. Low expectations means they do slightly becomes slightly well. The story becomes well. Surprising. Well. Labour is surprising. Expectations and then that feeds back and back and feeds back and feeds back and feeds back. Now the tories would want to something similar in the to do something similar in the 2024 potentially 2025 general 2024 or potentially 2025 general election. Than done. Election. Easier said than done. However, are starting from however, they are starting from a low base if in the next two, three, four months they can start to poll consistently in the low 30s, start to poll consistently in the low 305, which, by the way, is still a john major style result in 1997, but nonetheless , result in 1997, but nonetheless, that itself could be a phenomenon that gives them some impetus, some momentum. So in impetus, some momentum. So in and of themselves, i dont think polls are important this far out, but it can be a spur to create a different kind of narrative, a positive story, even if theyre losing these by elections. And mark, this is where by elections also become very, very important. No one thought of keir starmer as a strong figure until he started winning and then winning almost begets winning. Its almost as if once winning. Its almost as if once youve won, people go, oh, hes won that. He must be successful, he must be strong, he must be. And then all of these attributes get applied. Similarly with rishi sunak starts losing, people start thinking instead of being super chancellor, hes somehow a weaker figure. Its almost like a Snowball Effect that often happens. Yeah, mean, youre right, yeah, i mean, youre right, it momentum. It it generates momentum. It changes morale. Um they have a huge impact. I mean, i dont huge impact. I mean, i dont think you can read into a by election result that people would never necessarily have voted that if had been voted that way if it had been general election day. Typically the government perform the government will perform better general election day better on general election day than in a by election because people like people can vote, if you like more flippantly or cast a protest vote knowing that the future of the government is not at stake, but of course they matter for morale and the conservatives have been on with the single exception of holding the single exception of holding the uxbridge by election, to the surprise many pollsters and surprise of many pollsters and pundits, they go into most by elections expecting to get thrashed. I mean, that is the oddest starting point. Theres i dont think there was anybody in the party the conservative party who thought, well well thought, oh, well well probably win kingswood and comfortably wellingborough. Comfortably hold wellingborough. I mean, almost writing i mean, youre almost writing them before they before they them off before they before they start. So then all goes to start. So then it all goes to the expectations, i the expectations, which is why i come back this point. Theres come back to this point. Theres nothing applaud about a 16 nothing to applaud about a 16 swing against your party. But but grim and but it is not quite as grim and apocalyptic as some of the other experiences that the conservative party have had. And well see if thats repeated in wellingborough, which strongly wellingborough, which i strongly suspect the labour party will win. Are we going to see a win. But are we going to see a swing of that sort of nature . It5 swing of that sort of nature . Its going to have to be a little higher than kingswood if labouris little higher than kingswood if labour is to prevail. I still think they will. So these are, if you like, results so far if you like, the results so far for the conservatives, its definitely on the very, very bleak spectrum. But bleak end of the spectrum. But its on the truly its not on the truly catastrophic of spectrum catastrophic end of the spectrum that seeing in the that we were seeing in the previous elections that you previous by elections that you referenced start, but referenced on the start, but almost of a recovery narrative, although it has to be said this morning, uh, yesterday morning, polling day, morning, it was almost the worst set of headunes almost the worst set of headlines that the conservative party could possibly have imagined. Britain is in recession. Britain is in recession. Yeah. Uh, yes, it britain is in recession. Yeah. Uh, yes, it is a very bad headline. And i think if you bad headline. And i think if you actually want to get to the economic story of it and its perfectly true to say that the numbers show were in a recession. But really, the problem the truth is were about flat lining. I mean, youre flat lining. I mean, youre right. Whether were , uh, going right. Whether were, uh, going backwards by nought point 1 or Going Forwards by nought 1 does determine whether youre in a technical recession or not. But really , i think the problem out really, i think the problem out in the country is people are not feeling theyre getting richer. Uh, its basically if you look for the last five years, i mean, with the exception that we go backwards under the covid lockdowns recover it lockdowns and swiftly recover it. Economic growth. But basically, Economic Growth is line. This is is a flat line. Yeah. So this is why Rachel Reeves is saying that the continual the the continual question the labour put to the labour party will put to the electorate are you feeling electorate is, are you feeling ncher electorate is, are you feeling richer 5 years ago and richer than 4 or 5 years ago and there wont many people that there wont be many people that arent honestly answer to arent honestly answer yes to that question. Theyll be feeling about the same, and people expect richer over people expect to get richer over a period. A five year period. And aaron, that is precisely the question. The answer we the question. The answer that we often its not often hear. Uh, its not oppositions who win elections, its governments who them. Its governments who lose them. Mhm. Its governments who lose them. Absolutely. On the point of absolutely. On the point of the data from this morning, even more interesting that over more interesting is that over the two years, on a per the last two years, on a per capha the last two years, on a per capita basis, which is the thing that gdp that really matters, gdp per person, theres million of person, theres 68 million of us. Actually lower now us. Thats actually lower now than it was two years ago. And then we have covid then of course, we have covid and recovery from that. But and the recovery from that. But broadly speaking, like you say, mark, over the last five years per person, were poorer. Productivity is broadly stayed the about, what, since the same for about, what, since 2008. On 16 years 2008. Now getting on 16 years productivity is how much output each person is creating. But this british disease. This isnt a british disease. This is a european disease. This is a european disease. Well , thats not saying um, well, thats not saying much because europes not great, but partly right. But thats partly right. Im its partly true britain in thats partly true. This in that thats partly true. This part of the world has seen a sclerotic well the sclerotic growth. Well the netherlands hasnt, you know, the netherlands, netherlands recession. But economy, if you yeah, but its economy, if you look at its output per person, its about 35 than here. Its about 35 higher than here. And you actually look at it and if you actually look at it since it is doing somewhat since 2008, it is doing somewhat better. Appreciate point. Better. I appreciate your point. Terrible early because terrible early 2010 because youve youve youve got germany, youve got germany, france, italy. Are the three largest these are the three largest economies eurozone. Economies in the eurozone. But i get your point. I mean, theyre all struggling all really struggling and ultimately im ultimately the point that im trying make is that if trying to make here is that if we look across the european union, at britain, if union, if we look at britain, if we look at japan, again, these are countries that have are all countries that have low or growth. Or no growth. And youre saying the uh, and youre saying the electoral consequences of that . Europe, youre look, across europe, youre seeing some, you know, new parties being voted for really, really mark, really are suffering. But mark, what want to to is that what i want to get to is that the rich, developed that the rich, developed country that bucks the united bucks that trend is the United States america. States of america. Yeah. Thats true. Why well, i mean, it has a more free market capitalist model around it, would know those on it, i would say. I know those on the will say its, uh, its the left will say its, uh, its joe sort of colossal joe bidens sort of colossal fiscal stimulus package, which i think more a sugar rush think is more of a sugar rush than underlying strength than an underlying strength in the is more of the economy. But it is more of a low tax, less regulated economy than , than than most of western than, than than most of western europe. Its tilted in a social europe. Its tilted in a social democratic direction rather than a more free market direction over recent years. But it still has that edge over us. But even the us numbers are not historically spectacular. Historically spectacular. Theyre only spectacular in comparison to the absolute paucity of growth in most of the rest of the west. 25 compared to 0. 25. 25 compared to 0. 25. That should be the norm, 2. 53 shouldnt be considered heroic. Heroic. Aaron, you probably want to come back on that. Why is the us wealthy than britain or lets say france or germany . Look, fundamentally were dealing with a constant, not country. Got not a country. Its got infinity, hydrocarbons , its got infinity, hydrocarbons, its got infinity. Farmland these are big factors of production. Factors of production. So cheap energy, cheap energy i and of course, then the rebuttal is from somebody on the right, somebody like me, some eco warrior on the left. Well, then we should be fracking. We then we should be fracking. We should be drilling for oil and gas. That would help gdp gas. That would clearly help gdp. Point then of. Theres the point then of well, okay, what are our priorities . But finally , look, priorities . But finally, look, if we had a conversation, it was lets drill oil and gas and lets drill for oil and gas and it pay for infrastructure it will pay for infrastructure across the country. We can modernise our economy. We can, uh, if you want to create uh, even if you want to create tax for businesses, tax incentives for businesses, im that. What would im up for that. What would happen in the happen really in the conservatives . Be honest. Conservatives . Lets be honest. Lets scrap inheritance tax. They do little they would do little tax giveaways to their friends. So i am open to all kinds of conversations around what we do with hydrocarbons. I dont trust the tories to do it properly. Well, i should remind everyone we are waiting for everyone that we are waiting for this result in in wellingborough we been hearing that it has we have been hearing that it has been imminent for quite some time, but were trying to scurry around and find information on the ground where we have a reporter, but back to the macro level of this. Zooming out from this by election to the political conflict agencies. James crouch opinion pollster. Uh, by elections can sometimes have a knock on effects to not just the standing of a party. In an opinion poll, but also, frankly, machinations within westminster. Westminster. Uh, well, its frequently kind of believed that the eastbourne by election was the thing that basically did for Margaret Thatcher was one of the first things it did for Margaret Thatcher. Um, and then actually, i guess really we were thinking earlier on that, actually, you can the fall of boris can trace the fall of Boris Johnson effectively way johnson effectively all the way back shropshire. Um, back to north shropshire. Um, and by election loss and the huge by election loss there. So they have a huge impact. I think one the impact. I think one of the really big things thats done the damage for the conservative party helped labour is party and has helped labour is that these big by election wins have meant that the labour party holds together. So even with the holds together. So even with the huge debates over israel and palestine , i mean, they are palestine, i mean, they are still relatively Holding Together and keeping as a unified force, whereas the conservative party is very fractious and very ready to criticise the government. And it , as you can see from these by elections , clearly seems to be elections, clearly seems to be deserving criticism. But it always depends on what the predominant issue is on the day, because we did see a seven point drop in a couple of in one poll at the start of, of this week, and that was all in the midst of, although not after the point that the that the rochdale candidate as ah ali was dropped as a candidate by the official backing of labour, but but in the midst of that scandal, we did see a significant drop for the labour party. Uh does does it show perhaps a very narrow path where if the conservatives basically shut up , perhaps the basically shut up, perhaps the splits within labour get a bit more to the fore . More to the fore . Uh, well, theres definitely something in saying if the conservative party stopped infighting , it would help the infighting, it would help the conservative party. I dont think thats i dont think thats not particularly controversial. I dont think thats particularly controversial moment there. But think that the but i do think that the problems keir starmer has problems that keir starmer has had might why were had this week might be why were seeing down 20, seeing conservatives down 20, labour up ten, because what you might have expected to see, if we were talking about, for example, the tamworth by election is tories down 20, labour are up 20. Um, so its where is that conservative vote going because its not going back to the conservative party, but theyre looking for a new place to vent their vent, their anger and dissatisfaction. And anger and dissatisfaction. And it should be going to labour or thats what theyd want it to be now, an issue we havent touched on much in this conversation is, of course, party. Of course, the reform party. Matt, having their National Polling figures there had been a big debate as to whether this was sort of a mirage as to whether reform that vote was a very internet based thing that only if people paying attention to politics sort of knew what they were. Mark, i suppose this they were. Mark, i suppose this is evidence , at least is some evidence, at least kingswood is some evidence that its of broken into the its sort of broken into the vague mainstream. I think thats right. Yes. I think thats right. I mean, again, its all kind of, you know, how do you compare apples and pears. So here are some numbers to look at. If you were to go back to the 2015 general election, where i think you can fairly compare ukip as then the reform party then was to the reform party today, not quite a direct successor, but nearly well , ukip successor, but nearly well, ukip got across the nation as a whole. I think it was about 14 of the vote in kingswood. They of the vote in kingswood. They got 15 of the vote in a general election , not a by election election, not a by election where you might expect them to hoover up more protest votes. 15 in kingswood. So they havent matched that today, even though they have got into double figures and in wellingborough they got 19 of the vote in a general election vote, not in a by election ukip were, you know, were doing quite spectacularly well in some by elections. They, you know, they they, they were polling higher than, than what was reflected in the opinion poll. So we heard from nigel farage earlier, the honorary president of reform. And i think president of reform. And i think an awful lot of this goes into whether theyve really got the infrastructure. Already infrastructure. Weve already heard today theyve thrown heard today that theyve thrown more at wellingborough more resources at wellingborough. And rupert lowe was sort. And poor rupert lowe was sort of on own with a dozen or so of on his own with a dozen or so people in kingswood. People leafleting in kingswood. Sort of shows the but that sort of shows the latent support. But that sort of shows the latewell,pport. But that sort of shows the latewell, it ort. But that sort of shows the latewell, it does show the latent well, it does show the latent support, but the problem theyre going general going to have in the general election is youre not going to be fighting two constituencies on going to on the same day. Youre going to be fighting 600 uh, which be fighting 600 mw. Uh, so which are going to throw are you really going to throw resources doubt resources at . I doubt rupert lowe will have even 20 people with him, because theyll be with him, because theyll all be candidates in other constituencies. So i think the real question is not real question for reform is not that there isnt latent support there. Is. It there. There clearly is. It would be remiss to it. Would be remiss to ignore it. Its good showing its a reasonably good showing by in kingswood. But by rupert lowe in kingswood. But its yet up to the ukip its not yet up to the ukip levels. And i think there is a question farage was question which nigel farage was very , about whether very honest about, about whether they really have got the infrastructure a, infrastructure here to fight a, you 600 seats the same you know, 600 seats on the same day. I would question that ukip built up number of years built up over a number of years with the help of the European Elections, which were under a different electoral system, and with the help of two mp defectors , we forget only by defectors, we forget the only by elections that ukip actually won in had the advantage of being the candidate had been the previous mp as well. Previous mp as well. Aaron bastani is it possible that reform could be on a par path, a similar path to where ukip was . Well, i think the ceiling for reform is a lot higher because its not a single issue party and i think people are upset, discontented with politics. Theyre not happy with how its conducted. They think conducted. They dont think their are reflected their preferences are reflected by politicians. And i by mainstream politicians. And i was actually very surprised to hear nigel farage earlier on speaking to you. He said, hear nigel farage earlier on speai is. Thinking about what is probably. Thinking about what he is going to do for the next five years. Does he want to one be of three mps raised local issues on the green benches . Getting one question at Prime Ministers questions every three months . Does he want be months . Or does he want to be zipping around United States zipping around the United States on force one . Um, i mean, on air force one . Um, i mean, i can see which is more attractive then. Sure. I get i get that. But look, heres the thing. You do that for one parliament, and im saying as somebody the saying this as somebody on the left, im trying to left, right. But im trying to be objective political be an objective political analyst for your audience out there. You do for five there. You do that for five years, those three mps are years, and those three mps are a launch. And many places do launch. And how many places do you right . Or third . And you find where your vote is, you know where to build the machine. Is, you know where to build the machin you get the data, you get the software. You know, you pay you get the data, you get the softhe e. You know, you pay you get the data, you get the softhe facebookyw, you pay you get the data, you get the softhe facebook adsou pay you get the data, you get the softhe facebook ads next pay you get the data, you get the softhe facebook ads next timey for the facebook ads next time you know that three can become 43. So there is a real opportunity there. And i say, look, thing can look, the main thing is we can talk about data. Westminster. Talk about data. Westminster. It5 talk about data. Westminster. Its tory voters that its not just tory voters that are going to go to reform, right. Your ceiling is people are going to go to reform, rightareyur ceiling is people are going to go to reform, rightare really. Ing is people are going to go to reform, rightare really disaffectedle are going to go to reform, rightare really disaffected and who are really disaffected and politics right now. That is millions and millions of people. Huge challenge. But its there. Huge challenge. But its there. And that group of millions and millions of people mark, is what popular conservative popcorn in your group is trying to tap into. To tap into. Yeah. Thats right. I mean, i dont agree with nigel farage and richard tice on everything, but agree them on quite but i agree with them on quite a lot. My analysis would be that despite rightly says despite what aaron rightly says about potentially the ceiling for quite but for reforms quite high, but i think the floor is quite as think the floor is quite low as well, that could you could well, that you could you could imagine vote , i dont imagine their vote, i dont know, retreating back to 5 them not having the campaigning infrastructure to be able infrastructure to really be able to campaign , to mount a nationwide campaign, finding it difficult to find 650 strong candidates, both of their candidates in this by election are very strong candidates. True, but they probably dont have 650 such people. So i definitely dont think they should be taken for granted. I mean, on what farage does next. I mean, tom, you did the very best on several occasions to try and wheedle out of him. Oh, he might, i tried hard whether hell take role in the campaign. Im not going get im not going to get a pulitzer for any of those. My guess is that nigel farage will what does will be thinking, what does the centre of british Politics Centre right of british politics look the election . If look like after the election . If the are in the conservatives are in opposition and a bit opposition and i hear a bit about what aaron saying about perhaps if there were or 4 of perhaps if there were 3 or 4 of them who somehow into them who somehow got into parliament know, parliament with a, you know, a with base of millions of with a base of millions of voters, could from voters, he could build from there. But wonder whether he there. But i wonder whether he actually, future to be actually, in future wants to be actually, in future wants to be a candidate for Parliament Wearing the conservative blue rosette, not the reform party slightly turquoise rosette. I mean , that must be in his mind. Mean, that must be in his mind. Hes obviously and hes not really being coy about it. In newspaper articles, saying newspaper articles, hes saying hes trying weigh up exactly hes trying to weigh up exactly what do what the future what to do and what the future should like. Should look like. Well, aaron, youre saying three a great launchpad. Three mp5 is a great launchpad. Say conservative say the conservative party crashes crashes mps. Crashes crashes to 100 mp5. Thats a bigger launchpad through. Again , nigel through. But yeah, again, nigel was about, you know, the was talking about, you know, the breakthrough of the labour party at start 20th century. So hes clearly got that in his mind. And i, i do think thankfully for the tories , thankfully for the tories, starmer isnt charismatic enough. You had enough. I think if you had a talented, charismatic leader , talented, charismatic leader, the would be looking at the tories would be looking at something canadian Something Like what the canadian conservatives so long conservatives saw. Not so long ago. Be looking ago. They would be looking at something so something very existential. So so look , the machiavelli italian so look, the machiavelli italian political theorist has a great quote. He says its better to make mistakes for ambition than mistakes of sloth. And i think, look, going with reform would be a mistake of ambition potentially, because you potentially, because like you say, the floor is very low. Say, mark the floor is very low. And look, the thing he gets nbbed and look, the thing he gets ribbed lot is youve stood ribbed for a lot is youve stood seven times, lost in seven times, youve lost in seven times, youve lost in seven constituencies, even though the most influential though hes the most influential conservative generation. Though hes the most influential con i ervative generation. Though hes the most influential conzl know,; generation. Though hes the most influential conzl know, but generation. Though hes the most influential conzl know, but it generation. Though hes the most influential conzl know, but it must eration. Though hes the most influential conzl know, but it must hit. Ion. No, i know, but it must hit. I was about to say thats just a fancy way of saying you miss 100 the shots. You miss 100 of the shots. You dont take. Well, yeah, its true, well, yeah, no, its true, but must. But it must. It must, it must hit home in a way you dont want to be the butt of that joke again. But my goodness, we have been goodness, we have never been closer a complete evaporation closer to a complete evaporation of the conservative of trust. And the conservative party this would. Party and finally on this would. Why just join the why wouldnt you just join the conservatives extent, conservatives to some extent, youre busted youre looking at a busted brand. Somebody mr brand. So somebody like mr farage the greens in farage or maybe the greens in five years, or, you know, the snp ago, the whole five years, or, you know, the snp is ago, the whole five years, or, you know, the snp is we ago, the whole five years, or, you know, the snp is we dont 0, the whole five years, or, you know, the snp is we dont do he whole five years, or, you know, the snp is we dont do politicse five years, or, you know, the snp is we dont do politics as thing is we dont do politics as normal. Were different. We want to , you know, turn things upside to, you know, turn things upside down. I struggle to see how farage and various people right now in the orbit of reform, like ben habib, a talented man. Can you do that in the tory party with old grey suits in the with the old grey suits in the 1922 committee . I suspect not. Now. Ive got some news to bnng now. Ive got some news to bring from wellingborough, which is reports the is were hearing reports on the ground that the reason were experiencing this delay, 39 minutes of delay, compared to when we were expecting this result , is when we were expecting this result, is that when we were expecting this result , is that there are result, is that there are reports that the count has lost ten bundles of votes on the ground. Uh, just to repeat that, ground. Uh, just to repeat that, there are reports not verified , there are reports not verified, that the count has lost ten bundles of votes. Sorry, a lost bundles of votes. Sorry, a lost one bundle of ten votes. Now of course, this is a serious issue because the integrity, the integrity of elections is important. I integrity of elections is important. I dont think we can read anything into that in terms of saying this result is within ten votes. But just to repeat and for claritys sake , there is and for claritys sake, there is one bundle of ten votes reportedly missing on the floor of this count. Now, this is a conundrum. I suppose this is conundrum. I suppose this is a an issue which will be being worked through. Mark, youve been following politics for many, many , many years. This many, many, many years. This stuff happens, but its frankly embarrassing for our electoral system. Yeah, it is. I mean, god , i yeah, it is. I mean, god, i mean, i hope this doesnt trigger us style conspiracy theories about how the electoral process works. It is trouble. These things it is trouble. These things occasionally happen generally speaking. Actually, our electoral machinery is pretty robust. I electoral machinery is pretty robust. I always joke electoral machinery is pretty robust. I always joke with my robust. I always joke with my american friends , right . It american friends, right . It might be now in the, you know, darkest hours of the morning here. What was it, 20 to 4 in the morning. But were at least able hold election, count able to hold an election, count votes and the result between votes and get the result between what, you know, 4 or 5, six hours. By the time most people wake up. So, m, p so, u up. So, um, so thats a shame if this has happened. I mean, again, were speculating about it. I would thought the it. I would have thought the bundles by bundles are now bundles by candidate,. So its most candidate, right. So its most likely ten votes for likely these are ten votes for one specific candidate. Even if we dont know who it is. And then sorts things come then all sorts of things come into play. Might that, into play. Might not be that, uh, theres only ten votes between the top two candidates, but perhaps there are only ten votes between. I dont know, fourth and fifth place or some candidate is on the verge of Holding Deposit and ten holding their deposit and ten votes get them the votes will get them over the line. Yeah, that could slow line. So yeah, that could slow us quite even if ten us down quite a lot, even if ten votes are not actually decisive in next mp for wellingborough. James, lets turn to you. What do you what make of what do you what do you make of this . Mean, if this is true, this . I mean, if this is true, we are just hearing this from reports on the ground. One bundle of ten votes has gone missing. Um, well, i, i agree with mark. I its one of those, uh, the, the important thing here is the, the important thing here is the actual integrity of this election and making sure that everyone is completely happy with that. But it does seem unlikely that its going to be important for this, because if a candidate is genuinely only about ten votes from either keeping their deposit or winning the chances wed be actually into a recount anyway, and wed be getting information. Be getting that information. I imagine. Imagine. So im just understanding now that were experiencing what is a bundle check . Now, this is very, very common by elections. Just going through, just making sure the number of votes sure that the number of votes cast matches , the number of cast matches, the number of votes that they have on the table. So it might not necessarily be that this bundle is lost , but necessarily be that this bundle is lost, but they necessarily be that this bundle is lost , but they need to is lost, but they just need to make that these numbers make sure that these numbers match. And currently theyre out by could be that someone by ten. It could be that someone has sort of fumbled through has just sort of fumbled through a couple each stack, but it a couple in each stack, but it does mean the whole process does mean that the whole process needs go again. And actually needs to go again. And actually far from i said moment far from what i said a moment ago, make you ago, that it does make you question integrity of these question the integrity of these elections. The fact elections. Actually, the fact that are going through and that they are going through and they a result they will not announce a result until the number votes they until the number of votes they know been cast, matches the know has been cast, matches the totals of those votes for each individual candidate. Thats a sign of integrity and i suppose Aaron Bastani, thats something that we should be thankful for. Yeah, i wont make a joke about how we need venezuelan venezuelan style Voting Machines because, you know , although the because, you know, although the former president , because, you know, although the former president , jemmy former us president , jemmy carter, was very fond of them, you this is the you know, he said this is the most robust election system in the i think paper the world. Uh, no, i think paper votes. It can be slow. It can be annoying sometimes the old ways are the best ways. Because theres yes, because theres integrity votes. You integrity in paper votes. You know, theyre physically know, that theyre physically theyre electronic votes. Theyre in electronic votes. It5 theyre in electronic votes. Its machine that nebulous. Its in a machine that nebulous. Yeah. And frankly , even if its yeah. And frankly, even if its a very robust system , the system a very robust system, the system only works if theres confidence in it. If theres trust in it. And i mean, it seems that even though many things are getting much, much digital voting much, much more digital voting in this country will remain paper for a very, very long time. Thats got to be right. And its, you know, yes, obviously we have got the technology where theoretically go in and theoretically we could go in and hit button get the result hit a button and get the result within minute. But i think within one minute. But i think its like our system of its a bit like our system of justice. This has to be done in public. And evidently and at the count, there will be representatives from each of the parties for each of the candidates through, candidates looking through, making gone making sure that nothings gone wrong. Bundle check if ive wrong. The bundle check if ive got it right they would have got it right is they would have broken ballot papers by broken the ballot papers down by candidate. Now be candidate. Yes, theyll now be flicking through them, making sure of in the sure that all of those in the conservative, theyll be conservative, uh, theyll be a bundle and theyll be in bundles of theyll be of 50 usually, and theyll be making sure that they it could be theyve got 51 in 1 or be that theyve got 51 in 1 or 40 8 in 1. And they just need to make sure all of those bundles. So we might say its only ten votes. But youre right, tom. I mean, the idea that the returning officers should say, well, thatll you well, who cares . Thatll do. You know, mean, we do actually know, i mean, we do actually have to have has to all tally up at of although at the end of the although interestingly, there are certain things about election counts like might like this, um, that might make people eyebrow for people raise an eyebrow for example, agents example, the battles that agents of candidates have over ambiguous votes. Ambiguous votes. I was i was shown a famous example of this, where someone had, uh , what some people argued had, uh, what some people argued spoilt their ballot a big x across the entire ballot paper. But the agent for one candidate was able to successfully argue with the returning officer that where the x crossed was across a name was actually a clear sign of intention to vote for that individual. Theres also been examples in the past where a rood object is drawn in one box. It has been argued as a clear vote of intent for one particular candidate. But, uh, particular candidate. But, uh, there are lots of different sort of some slightly spurious, some quite comedic arguments that are made by the agents of candidates who get to haggle over the ambiguous votes. And that always takes place at counts like this. Takes place at counts like this. I once had a vote, im told, disqualified, because another reason you can disqualify a ballot paper is if the voter can be identified. And i had left a message in the box of the candidate i had voted for, which im told was so obviously me that one of the other agents said , thats littlewoods ballot said, thats littlewoods ballot papenl said, thats littlewoods ballot paper. I still dont know to this day. It was in the 97 election whether it was disqualified or not. So yeah, all of those go through and its important to get that right. And for the final tally to match the number who up number of people who turned up and voted. Unlikely and voted. But its unlikely that of level, its that these sort of level, its rare for that to make a difference. I mean, occasionally if somebody by 1 or 2 votes. If somebody one by 1 or 2 votes. Yeah, most normal yeah, but in most normal circumstances just to get circumstances its just to get the tally right. Its also very, rare. Its also very, very rare. But a contingency if but there is a contingency if two leading candidates have precisely the same number of votes after recount after recount after recount, and it is a tie. The returning officer flips a coin , flips a coin, and flips a coin, flips a coin, and thats how we decided. I suppose its as fair as anything could be short of rerunning the election. I think we did have that. So it correct me if im wrong. I think it was winchester in 1997. I think Mark Houghton. Yes, by two votes for the liberal democrats. They reran it all over again. But obviously the voters of winchester said , why voters of winchester said, why are making us do again . Are you making us do this again . And re elected houghton by and re elected Mark Houghton by a majority . Yeah a large majority . Yeah um, well, lets revisit that kingswood result now. Chikomba gb news Theo Chikomba gb News National is our man on National Reporter is our man on the in kingswood. And the ground in kingswood. And theo, has been, uh , some time theo, it has been, uh, some time now since that result set in. It has perhaps reverberated through the area. What are your main the area. What are your main takeaways from what we saw in kingswood . Kingswood . Yes. Well, after weeks of campaigning, uh, damien egan came out on top as six candidates looked to take over this constituency here in gloucestershire. Now, of course, gloucestershire. Now, of course, he was telling us earlier that he was telling us earlier that he was telling us earlier that he was going out and speaking to people and theyre saying some of their concerns are the cost of their concerns are the cost of living, some people arguing that theyre just existing and not living the life that they would want to. Uh, schools , would want to. Uh, schools, dentists, infrastructure , dentists, infrastructure, transport, which has had some cuts , uh, in recent times. These cuts, uh, in recent times. These are all concerns he heard from members of the public. And he is looking to address that. But of course, we know he doesnt have much time because this seat wont exist when the next general election comes. Now general election comes. Now lets hear a bit more of what he had to say a little earlier when we spoke to him, nigel farage and his party to thank for your win. Win. I havent seen all the results through so i got the headline, so ill crack the figures. But no, i think when were talking to people, we talked about the issues that people were raising as top ones with us was, um, nhs cost of living and policing. But, you living and policing. But, you know, certainly other issues as well. Were coming up. But um, well. Were coming up. But um, but no, id like, id like to think that we won the election on our own back by working hard and getting a good message out there to the voters of kingswood i now, once also interesting is that of all the people that voted reform uk had 10 of the vote. And if reform uk and the conservatives were together, they would have overturned. And they would have overturned. And labour now Going Forward and the wider picture, what does this mean for the tory party considering the general election is at some point this year, will people be swayed . Will there minds change following this by election . But interestingly, ispoke by election . But interestingly, i spoke to luke hall a little earlier. Hes the mp for the constituency where we are in thornbury at the moment. Hes saying, well, weve seen in the past parties losing general, well, not general elections, by elections , i should say. And he elections, i should say. And he said, well, when we do go onto a general election, they do get a majority. So hes saying we can look it doesnt look at this, but it doesnt paint a picture in what might happenin paint a picture in what might happen in a general election. When happens. Now, we also when it happens. Now, we also heard from sir jacob when it happens. Now, we also heard from sirjacob reece morgan. Hes saying this is no time for the conservatives to make a u turn as he said labour are the party. Theo, im just going to interrupt you there, theo, because im hearing people might because im hearing people might be coalescing at the counts in wellingborough. Were going to take you live there. Pictures. Now, hearing that there is now, were hearing that there is movement, were to keep movement, so were going to keep our eyes on this screen. And im really hoping this isnt a false warning because were expecting candidates to line up on this screen in wellingborough. Screen in wellingborough. Wellingborough, the constituency that peter bone was the member of parliament for, from 2005 up until very recent indeed, he had a majority. Of 18,540. And of a majority. Of 18,540. And of course, before 2005, wellingborough was a labour seat, so it hasnt been labour, it hasnt been conservative forever , but it was only at the forever, but it was only at the peak of blairs prowess that this seat was won by the labour party. It currently has a conservative council in its area and it was a 63 leave seat. We can see some activity, some staff on the ground there moving around. Could this be because were clearing some space for those candidate to appear . This is what we seem to be being told. Were going to keep our eyes and ears on the ground there. A crowd are massing some some, some activity there. Still with me , uh, is of course, our with me, uh, is of course, our panel and oh, glorious, glorious. We cant not have a look at this. This,. We cant not have a look at this. This, uh, this is, of course, the wonderful line up of candidates, including the monster raving loony Party Candidate , nick the flying brick candidate, nick the flying brick delves. And i just think, what a wonderful part of british democracy. Kc. You dont get democracy. Kc. You dont get this in other countries, aaron. The Monster Raving Loony Party are an institution. Yeah, theyre the sensible ones. Theyre the only ones you can actually listen to and believe what they say. Um, no, but theyre very good. And look, it goes back to what we were saying paper ballots as saying about paper ballots as well. Its think patriots can well. Its i think patriots can criticise country, criticise their country, but we do britain hell of do criticise britain a hell of a lot days because theres lot these days because theres lots it. Theres some lots wrong with it. Theres some many things as well. Is many good things as well. One is the which these the spirit in which these elections are often thought. Another integrity of the another is the integrity of the election process. Know, election process. You know, such a debate places like the a big debate in places like the us, dont have here for us, we dont have that here for good reason. The that potential and the fact that potential Prime Ministers, Party Leaders have with have to stand up there with people with anyone whos paid a deposit stand in an election, deposit to stand in an election, and you have a situation where a giant fishfinger stands next to tim or a giant man in an tim farron or a giant man in an elmo costume stands next to theresa may or indeed, count binface pops up next to Boris Johnson. These are all johnson. These are all situations that weve seen in recent elections. I just wonder recent elections. I just wonder what we might see. What peculiarities we might see in an election if its held this year, orindeed election if its held this year, or indeed in the first month of 2025. Uh, Mark Littlewood , we 2025. Uh, Mark Littlewood, we seem to be seeing these candidates , uh, being having candidates, uh, being having some sort of briefing here. Things are very, very close. Things are very, very close. Yeah, were going to get the result pretty soon. I agree with whats been said about the, uh, the kind of gaiety of elections really , when you have these really, when you have these slightly praepostor candidates, it takes us all down a peg or two. But the Monster Raving Loony Party has actually come up with a couple of decent policies over the years. Whats your policy . Whats your favourite policy . Whats your favourite policy . The favourite policy i think the favourite policy was said should was when they said we should replace the pound coin with a £0. 99 coin, because things, £0. 99 coin, because most things, most things in 99. Um, so its great to have these sort of characters it does add characters around. It does add it add. It does add. Favourite policy is they my favourite policy is they wanted conditioning wanted to put air conditioning units of units on the outside of buildings combat climate buildings to combat climate change. Okay just thought was which i just thought was brilliant. Other one was to well, the other one was to use, uh, to get rid of the eu, but more mountain by using it as grease artificial ski slopes. Grease on artificial ski slopes. So rather imaginative idea. That takes us back. The oh, that takes us back. The eu Butter Mountain is proper 19805 eu Butter Mountain is proper 1980s sort of stuff. 805. Um, but but but uh, many uh, quote unquote proper parties also have quite funny policies is my favourite, uh, lib annie perhaps comes from the ukip manifesto in 2010, which included make the circle line in london on the underground, make the circle line a circle. It included paint trains in traditional colours. It was really rather quick. Do you make the circle in a circle . What you rebuilt . What you rebuilt . It used to be a circle. It used to be a circle, right. What . How did it stop being a circle . Youll have to ask the was it Ken Livingstone who stopped it being circle . Being a circle . Think it was. And it was i think it was. And it was because it now disconnects at paddington. Were really diving into delves a. M. Into the delves of 4 am. Television we, television here, arent we, gentlemen . It gentlemen . Um, this. Yes. It used a circle. And then. Used to be a circle. And then. And then for efficiency and then for some efficiency reason. Um, it wasnt. And this was a key issue for the electorate of london at the time, was it . Know what i dont know you know what i dont know why was so obsessed with why ukip was so obsessed with it. Say again, as somebody can i say again, as somebody on know, i think on the left, you know, i think they had a policy as well about i think taxi drivers had to wear uniforms. Yes maybe nigel can correct this, thats correct me, but this, thats the sort of that look, sort of thing that look, i actually you go on the actually think you go on the train people wearing a polo train and people wearing a polo shirt whatever, us to shirt or whatever, i want us to be a bit more like the japanese shirt and tie. Although im not wearing its 4 am, wearing one myself. Its 4 am, but things like people in but things like that. People in pubuc but things like that. People in public and Public Service public space and Public Service being its nice being nicely dressed. Its nice and it looks like we have the candidates now are walking towards the stage. See the conservative we can see the conservative candidate uh, is candidate there looking, uh, is that on his face . Im that a smile on his face . Im flabbergasted smile on flabbergasted to see a smile on his i mean, it could be his face. I mean, it could be a bemused of just accepting bemused smile of just accepting defeat. Cant too much defeat. We cant read too much into facial expressions, but here we go. Definitely movement here we go. Definitely movement here uh, the wellingborough here in, uh, the wellingborough count, is held count, which is being held in kettering. Its all very confusing for confusing when the counts for various arent various constituencies arent held constituency theyre held in the constituency theyre in, it is a marvellous space in, but it is a marvellous space to have that count it to have that count and it definitely the definitely looks like the candidates lined up candidates are being lined up there. So were going to keep our eyes glued to this 5 um, to this line of candidates line up. Uh, one might say, and i what a splendid hat, a splendid hat from nick the flying brick delves the monster raving loony Party Candidate. I feel like im Party Candidate. I feel like im giving undue weight to the Monster Raving Loony Party. So just to run through the candidates that were looking at on our screens, we can see the Labour Party Candidate , jen Labour Party Candidate, jen kitchen. Yes youve heard of gen z , youve heard of, uh, youve z, youve heard of, uh, youve heard of gen alpha, youve heard of gen x. This is jen kitchen from the labour party. Weve also got Helen Harrison, the conservative Party Candidate, the partner of the former member of parliament, peter bone. Ben habib is standing for reform uk. Viewers might have seen ben habib , uh, popping up as habib, uh, popping up as a panellist on quite a few shows on this channel. Hes a slick media performer, pops up on other channels as well, has been been quite a prominent spokesperson for the reform party. They have put a lot of effort into this particular seat , but weve also got anna savage gunn from the liberal democrats. Weve just written anna gunn, but i think we do really need to put the full name there. Anna savage gunn, fantastic names. We have in this particular by election anna savage gunn was actually formerly a Police Officer, and i just think if you were if you were stopped by a Police Officer called savage gunn, you really you really would your ideas up, would buck your ideas up, wouldnt will . Maurice is wouldnt you . Will . Maurice is representing the green party. You can him on the far left you can see him on the far left of your screen. No aspersions about party and their about the green party and their political theyre for political positions. Theyre for alex merola is standing for britain first. Uh, nick, the flying brick delves the Monster Raving Loony Party. Hes the one in the silly hat. And kit love. Um. Post mortem is standing as an independent. I think that might be a interested name. Andre pine bailey is an independent. Marion turner hawes is an independent, and kevin watts is an independent is an independent. There are 11 candidates standing in this by election, and we can see five of them currently in our frame, standing up there with an audience around them. We really audience around them. We really are expecting this result any moment now. Of course, it was delayed for some time. The number of votes cast cast didnt quite match the number of votes counted for each candidate. There has been a bundle check and it seems as though that has now been satisfactorily resolved. It seems as though those numbers now match so importantly, we are close to this declaration and you can only imagine what is going through the heads of those people standing there waiting for this to be announced to the country. The second by election varne tonight , a big result and varne tonight, a big result and a big task for the labour party to overturn that majority. Of to overturn that majority. Of 18,540 votes, now still with me, of course, is james crouch, the opinion pollster. Of course, is james crouch, the opinion pollster. And what opinion pollster. And what actually is needed to overturn a majority of 18,540 votes. Is that a big majority . That is a huge majority. In fact, if the conservatives were to lose it, it would be the 12th safest seat ever lost at a by election half of the ones that are more safer than that, theyve already lost in this parliament. So were well on the way to it. Um, but thats actually an 18 swing. So its larger than the swing. We actually saw in the by election earlier on today. I dont know if i can read anything into these faces, but Helen Harrison had had been. Now shes not smiling. Okay. Maybe maybe im just going. Maybe im just being to looking too much into this. But it did look like jen kitchen wasnt so happy and helen was quite happy. Jen kitchen wasnt so happy and helemaybe was quite happy. Jen kitchen wasnt so happy and helemaybe thatnas quite happy. Jen kitchen wasnt so happy and helemaybe that is; quite happy. Jen kitchen wasnt so happy and helemaybe that is just te happy. Jen kitchen wasnt so happy and helemaybe that is just thatippy. Jen kitchen wasnt so happy and helemaybe that is just that. Ypy. Jen kitchen wasnt so happy and helemaybe that is just that. Jen but maybe that is just that. Jen kitchen sort feeling kitchen had this sort of feeling of a daunting moment there that she she must look serious because won shes in a big way. But perhaps theres been an upset with Helen Harrison. Um, upset with Helen Harrison. Um, mark, if youre a betting man, who would you say is going to win this labour . Um, i, i would have been nailed on certain 12 hours ago. The only reason that gives me pause for thought. Look, these are different parts of the country, different demographics in the seat. But the kingswood swing that labour got would not be sufficient for them to take this if they got the same this seat if they got the same swing against conservatives swing against the conservatives here in wellingborough, they would fall just short. However, i think labour will i still think labour will prevail because its my guess that reform uk vote will be that the reform uk vote will be measurably higher as a percentage than it was in kingswood. This is where theyve put their behind ben put their efforts behind ben habib. Labour win habib. So narrow labour win would be prediction still. Would be my prediction still. And of course like you tom, im trying to read the faces trying to read into the faces and the smiles of and the frowns and the smiles of the various. Its a fools game monster raving candidate monster raving loony candidate is so is permanently beaming. So maybe, he pulled off maybe, oh, maybe he pulled off a shock. Maybe hes won. Uh, but we should say are also local should say there are also local factors regards to this factors with regards to this election are possibly, election that are possibly, uh, more pertinent than , uh, than more pertinent than, uh, than the result in kingswood. And of the result in kingswood. And of course, this was a recall petition that kicked off this by election. And then a controversy candidate choice by the local conservative party. Uh, Helen Harrison , the partner uh, Helen Harrison, the partner of the previous mp, who was recalled, peter bone. Im heanng recalled, peter bone. Im hearing that the returning officer is getting ready to get on to that stand. And, and it does look like there is some movement there. I believe the returning officer is getting near to the microphone. Lets listen. In. Listen. In. Oh, there in the in the costume. Milan shall be as high costume. Milan shall be as high sheriff. Sheriff. Patrick. Patrick. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen. Good morning and gentlemen. Good morning and welcome. I will ensure in the welcome. I will ensure in the returning officer at the election of a member of parliament for wellingborough on thursday , the 15th of february, thursday, the 15th of february, 2024. Ukip i give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the said election is as follows. There election is as follows. There was Nicholas Charles ellsworth , was Nicholas Charles ellsworth, also known as nick the flying brick. The official Monster Raving Loony Party , 217 members. Raving loony party, 217 members. Done and the savage liberal democrats. 1422 votes. Happy democrats. 1422 votes. Happy william kedjanyi, also known as ben habib reform. Uk 3919 votes. Ben habib reform. Uk 3919 votes. Harrison, helen. Jane the conservative Party Candidate. Conservative Party Candidate. 7408 votes. Jane mallard post mortem and kate love jk rowling lib 18 votes. Kitchen, genevieve. Victoria also known as jane kitchen. Also known as jane kitchen. Labour party, 13,844 votes. Alessandra, also known as alex merola, written first stop the boats, 477 votes. Maurice william john, also known as will Maurice Green party. 1020 votes. Maurice green party. 1020 votes. Im bailey andre pierre by michael, also known as andre bailey, independent, 172 votes. Sinner horse. Marion eileen. Sinner horse. Marion eileen. 1115 votes. Whats kevin charles, also known as kev. Whats. Independent 533 votes. Whats. Independent 533 votes. The number of ballot papers rejected was as follows. For want of an official mark, none. Want of an official mark, none. Voting for more candidates than the voter was entitled to 14. Writing or marked. Being writing or marked. Being unmarked or wholly void for uncertainty 61. Rejected in part none. Uncertainty 61. Rejected in part none. The total number of ballot none. The total number of ballot papers that was rejected was 75. Vacant seats. One. Electorate vacant seats. One. Electorate 79,376. Ballot papers. Issued 79,376. Ballot papers. Issued 30,231. Turnout. 38. 1, and i do 30,231. Turnout. 38. 1, and i do hereby declare that genevieve victoria kitchen, also known as jen kitchen of the labour party, is duly elected. And i, i invite the winning candidate to the lectern. This is kitchen, the successful Labour Party Candidate, overturning a majority of 18,540. Im sorry. Thats my mum. So im sorry. Thats my mum. So i am delighted to be stood here as the newly elected labour mp for wellingborough. I am for wellingborough. I am honoured that local people have placed their trust in me and the labour party under keir starmer. But i also know from the thousands of conversations i have had during this campaign how desperately people want change and a fresh start for our country. The people of wellingborough have spoken for britain. This is a stunning victory for the labour party and must send a message from northamptonshire to downing street. I northamptonshire to downing street. I ran northamptonshire to downing street. I ran a positive street. I ran a positive campaign built on both the local issues that people told me needed addressing here, as well as the National Desire for change urge people here are patriotic and hopeful for our country and they care about our community, but they know that our roads arent fit to drive on getting your child a doctors appointment can seem impossible, and that they are paying more and that they are paying more and getting less. Today they said enough is enough. And getting less. Today they said enough is enough. I and getting less. Today they said enough is enough. I would said enough is enough. I would like to take this opportunity to thank the returning officers and the counting staff for all of your hard work tonight. I would your hard work tonight. I would also like to thank my opponent , also like to thank my opponent, who also worked incredibly hard to put their case to the people to put their case to the people to thank you to my Incredible Team for all the work youve put in over the last three months, and in particular for all of the volunteers who have given up their time to come to wellingborough campaign wellingborough and campaign for me. You to my family, my me. Thank you to my family, my wonderful parents whose love and support have got me here today , support have got me here today, to my sister in law for making me zen zen with yoga classes and baby cuddles, and of claws to my incredible husband joe, whos been such a rock to me even when i cut our honeymoon short. I i cut our honeymoon short. I promise, darling, i will make it up to you. But it might just have to wait until after the general election and finally, and most importantly, i would like to thank everyone who voted today, particularly , of course, today, particularly, of course, those that voted for me. But i those that voted for me. But i take my responsibility to every single constituency very, very seriously. Whether you voted for seriously. Whether you voted for my party, another party or no party my party, another party or no party at all, i will serve you and work to earn your trust again in the labour party is ready to serve the people of this country and so many people across the constituency , not across the constituency, not just in wellingborough, but rushden , higham ferrers, rushden, higham ferrers, finedon, bodger , wollaston and finedon, bodger, wollaston and all the villages have told me that they have voted labour for the very first time today. And the very first time today. And to everyone who has told me they are willing to look at labour again, i want to thank you all for this opportunity and i wont let you down. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you much. Thank you. Thank you. That was jen kitchen, the victorious Labour Party Candidate in the wellingborough by election we now know that the labour party has picked up two seats tonight. Jen kitchen for the labour party. Received the labour party. Received 13,844 votes. That is. 46 of 13,844 votes. That is. 46 of the vote. Helen harrison, who the vote. Helen harrison, who was the conservative Party Candidate, received 7408 votes, equivalent to 25. Now that matches just about National Polling. Ben habib, the reform polling. Ben habib, the reform uk candidate, received 3909 votes. Thats equivalent. To 13 votes. Thats equivalent. To 13 of the vote. Now thats a smidgen above National Polling for the reform party. But not quite at the 15 or 16. That perhaps would have been the stretch target for reform uk in that seat. Its not a million that seat. Its not a million miles away from rupert lowe , who miles away from rupert lowe, who got 10. 4 for the reform uk party in kingswood. So these are party in kingswood. So these are two concrete numbers we have for reform uk. Really for the first time, matching or exceeding National Polling in real results. Rupert lowe reform uk in kingswood 10. 4. Ben habib reform kingswood10. 4. Ben habib reform uk in wellingborough 313. But to repeat , jen kitchin of the repeat, jen kitchin of the labour party has won with 46 of the vote, 13,844 votes and shes overturned a majority of almost 20,000. Nigel farage joins us in the studio and nigel, the labour party has picked up two big wins tonight. Tonight. I mean, this one was wapping, wasnt it . An absolute enormous win. I mean, wellingborough, one of those sort of in terms of class , in terms of income also class, in terms of income also an old thatcherite type seat , an old thatcherite type seat, you know, not not your middle classes in kingswood, a very different kind of seat. Um perhaps actually quite typical of middle england in many, many ways. The remarkable thing about the result is how reflective it is of National Opinion polling. Yeah, you know, 46, 25, 31 with the three parties, uh, remarkable. So big win for remarkable. So big win for laboun remarkable. So big win for labour. Of course were going to talk about. I mean, tonight was the night reform came of age. It became a real Political Party, not a theoretical Political Party. And both those results show that, um , and, you know, show that, um, and, you know, well have to see where it goes from here. But the other standout to me is the liberal democrats have lost deposits in both of these seats. Now so you would have thought with the conservatives under attack from labourin conservatives under attack from labour in the old red wall, you would have thought that in surrey and those kind of southern home counties, this would have been the lib dems, big election. They are making , big election. They are making, in fact, far from any impact theyve been going backwards. Thats also , i think, worthy of thats also, i think, worthy of note. Note. Its interesting to see how close the green party came to overtaking the liberal democrats. The liberal democrats on 1322. Within a few votes, the green party on 1042 20. Yeah, yeah yeah, i mean i it its clear that ed davey is leader is making zero impact and it isnt just the post office scandal. Its the fact that hes chickened out of attending pmqs week after week after week part. I the lib dems did well i mean, the lib dems did well with great leaders. Charlie kennedy had terrible personal problems. A shame, but was problems. Its a shame, but was a huge personality. Paddy a huge personality. Paddy ashdown great charisma. Nick ashdown had great charisma. Nick clegg in 2010 kind of beat the other Party Leaders. Clegg in 2010 kind of beat the other Party Leaders. Um, so clegg in 2010 kind of beat the other Party Leaders. Um, so the other Party Leaders. Um, so the lib dems can do well with charismatic leadership. They havent got it. You know what were talking about the art of oratory. Were talking about art of talking about the art of charisma. Remember paddy charisma. I remember Paddy Ashdown during the referendum. I was there at some of the debates, the way that he could, even if you disagreed with him, grip a room, he had real grip in a room, he had real presence, real charisma, real, real. Just a gift for public speaking. Speaking. He really did. And the odd thing is that i dont think maybe the panel would disagree, but dont think that sir keir but i dont think that sir keir starmer or rishi sunak , i dont starmer or rishi sunak, i dont think either of them have that inspirational flair that some people have in life. People have in life. And yet and yet if you think about the parliamentarians who do have it, michael gove comes to my mind now, hes not ever going to be a particularly Popular Party leader. But my goodness , does he have that art goodness, does he have that art of oratory. Now hold on. Yeah, michael can speak, but actually, look at debates actually, if you look at debates in there in the house of commons, there are very few people in are very, very few people in the modern world stand up modern world that can stand up and really inspire. I mean, ironically, perhaps, George Galloway, know, whatever galloway, you know, whatever you think is one galloway, you know, whatever you thithose is one galloway, you know, whatever you thithose people is one galloway, you know, whatever you thithose people thats is one galloway, you know, whatever you thithose people thats got one galloway, you know, whatever you thithose people thats got an; of those people thats got an amazing ability to reach out to amazing ability to reach out to a emote, to get people a crowd, to emote, to get people to agree. And we just saw, i mean, i dont want to be rude, but, good to jen but, you know, good luck to jen kitchen. Now the labour kitchen. Shes now the labour mp. I mean that wasnt a speech that was reading off a sheet of papen that was reading off a sheet of paper. It kind of sums up, paper. And it kind of sums up, i think, how low grade our politics becoming and how politics is becoming and how isnt it odd were not even voting for candidates anymore. Were voting for and against Party Leaders. Almost got Party Leaders. Weve almost got a quasi president system now operating in general elections, in by elections. What were in by elections. What were people in wellingborough voting on . They werent really voting on . They werent really voting on the local candidates very much. They were voting on National Perception of how they see things, whether they like or dislike leaders in any identikit candidate. And to be honest, to some extent, the scandal in rochdale will probably make the Labour Party Even more cautious of any candidate who sort of has has stepped out of line or free wheels, or doesnt read off a script , which wheels, or doesnt read off a script, which means you wheels, or doesnt read off a script , which means you get even script, which means you get even even more boring candidates with less life, less life experience. I mean, i mean, look, tonights been fascinating. Tonights been fascinating. There are no huge shocks tonight. Lib dems doing very badly. Reform actually exceeding on balance their National Opinion polling. Labour as we expected tories as we expected. Expected tories as we expected. Um i think in a couple of weeks time with rochdale i mean my Goodness Gracious me, this is potentially one of the most exciting by elections weve seen for years. Exciting by elections weve seen for oh rs. This is just oh yeah. This is just the beginning. Aaron and beginning. Aaron bastani and mark with us. Mark littlewood still with us. Im bring you both into im going to bring you both into the conversation. Aaron, first, your this result. Your response to this result. You had its extraordinary. You had a tory majority of 18,020 19. The labour candidate has almost doubled the tory vote. Um, and doubled the tory vote. Um, and unlike what we saw in the other constituency this evening, that margin between reform and the tories, its not something that the tories can sell to themselves. Well, if we get that vote back, well be okay. On the liberal democrats. This is fascinating , isnt it . Because fascinating, isnt it . Because in 1997 there was a very efficient vote and this will be manna from heaven for labour, that they will say, and im sure the lib dems will like that argument too. Well, it is our voters. But in the right places theyre going to labour at the right i think its deeper right time. I think its deeper than i ed davey is than that. I think ed davey is very a btec. Keir starmer , very much a btec. Keir starmer, why vote ed davey when why would you vote ed davey when you can get the real mccoy . Yeah, its like its like mini me, like its me, you know, its like its like doctor evil and mini me. Ed davey is not really a substantial figure in his own right. Agree reform and right. I agree on reform and i think have become a think they have become a substantial operation. Substantial political operation. Well, theyve proved themselves i said well, theyve proved themseon,; i said well, theyve proved themseon, but i said well, theyve proved themseon, but this i said well, theyve proved themseon, but this is said well, theyve proved themseon, but this is without earlier on, but this is without any infrastructure. Councillors there no councillors is um, there is a massive amount of discontent out there for the conservative party. I think theres a very high now, theres a very high ceiling now, a quick word from Mark Littlewood. Response this result. Your response to this result. Your response to this result. Well, heres an interesting conundrum those of the conundrum for those of us on the centre right to play with. I mean, this is a much worse result conservatives result for the conservatives than mean, this is than kingswood. I mean, this is much with with much more in line with with recent by elections weve seen. But in kingswood , for every vote but in kingswood, for every vote that reform got, the conservatives got about three and a half votes here for every reform got the conservatives only got two votes. There is a considerably more divided centre right here. Not that if you do that magic assumption that everybody who voted reform would automatically switch to the tories, which is a wrong assumption. It still wouldnt have been enough centre have been enough for the centre right to the but hold right to win the seat. But hold that right to win the seat. But hold tha well be back with you. But well be back with you. But were to get to now. Will were going to get to now. Will hollis, our gb news east midlands hes in Midlands Reporter. Hes in northamptonshire for the wellingborough count and hes with party mp toby with the labour party mp toby perkins. The shadow environment secretary, whos been a huge figure in this campaign. Secretary, whos been a huge figure in this campaign. Varne. Figure in this campaign. Varne. Uh, please , uh, will whats uh, so please, uh, will whats going. On going. On yes. Well its more than 13,000 votes. Notes that jen kitchen won this seat with. We got toby perkins here. Toby whats your reaction to this labour win . Well, wow. Labour win . Well, wow. Oh, im sorry about that. Were going to see if we can get that line re established. And that line re established. And that audio nice and loud for you at home. Mark, we interrupted you halfway through. Were going you halfway through. Were going to see if we can get back to the count when we can. But your impressions. Yeah. As i was saying, i think that, you know, the interesting challenge for the conservatives is if theres any route to route back, its probably to have to the this ten, have to appeal to the this ten, 15. Thats voting reform. And in wellingborough, as i say, if you make the slightly rash assumption that that these are centre right votes, then reform in ratio to the conservative party has done much better in wellingborough than it did in in kingswood earlier. I mean, the challenge i still think for, for the party of which nigel is the honorary president , is the extent to which in a general election youre split 600 ways. It5 election youre split 600 ways. Its obviously a problem for all parties, but smaller parties can throw their focus at a particular by election, get their activists in there, make quite a kerfuffle and get the leaflets out on the day i, you know, would ben habib have done that . Well, in a general election where resources are more divided, thats entirely wrong. Ill tell you why. Uh, by elections are artillery wars in a labour. I dont know how many people labour had it today in wellingborough. 500,000. I mean, Something Like that. How many did reform have today . 50. 100. Um, in by elections, youre outgunned by the bigger parties. I remember in ukip paper , i remember in ukip paper, candidates who were standing for general election do nothing would get bigger scores than by election candidates. But because the others couldnt fight back, i think its also a story about the conservatives. Rishi sunak didnt visit either seat. No, cabinet ministers did not visit either seat. The labour party sent shadow cabinet after shadow cabinet minister after shadow cabinet minister after shadow cabinet keir starmer cabinet minister keir starmer visited. Many rachel visited. How many times . Rachel reeves how times reeves visited . How many times they threw the kitchen sinks at these tories sort of these seats. The tories sort of said weve sort of lost already. Why well, were not going why not . Well, were not going to try. The difference is, with a general election, i said this a moment ago, were now living in a quasi president ial system. The a quasi president ial system. The amount campaigning and amount of local campaigning and constituencies in general elections is pretty small. You know, were not back in the 19705 know, were not back in the 1970s with mass memberships of both parties, you know, with people going out, knocking on doors in huge numbers general doors in huge numbers in general elections. Happen in elections. It doesnt happen in general its about elections. It doesnt happen in geneyou its about elections. It doesnt happen in geneyou like its about elections. It doesnt happen in geneyou like or its about elections. It doesnt happen in geneyou like or dont about elections. It doesnt happen in geneyou like or dont like. |t elections. It doesnt happen in geneyou like or dont like. And who you like or dont like. And i think if reform, um , under the i think if reform, um, under the heat of fire are being outgunned in every way, i remember they started this with no data. You started this with no data. You know, the conservative party in wellingborough will know how your granddad voted. Um, i mean, your granddad voted. Um, i mean, building that and labour to and building that and labour to and building that and labour to and building that data literally since the end of the first world war, you know, firstly on sheets of paper. Now digitised. Yeah. You and was involved you know, and i was involved with the local conservative party in kent and we literally knew every household and how they voted. And on election day we and knocked them up. We went out and knocked them up. I again, just huge i think again, just huge campaigns. As if reform could campaigns. As if reform could get these numbers in a tough by election in a general election, it can get that or exceed it. And i really well , exceed it. And i really well, thats intriguing. But i mean, the other issue though is of course, i mean, i dont want to pretend to read into the minds of why different voters different ways. Voters vote in different ways. But cast a protest but you could cast a protest vote for reform in either of these seats, a signal that these seats, send a signal that youre the youre dissatisfied with the government, that government, and it might be that youre in a general youre more minded in a general election to vote for one of the two whos likely to form. Were going to get the labour party because weve party view now, because weve re established with re established this line with will news east will hollis, our gb news east Midlands Reporter. Hes with the labour toby perkins. Will, labour mp toby perkins. Will, i think can hear you now. Yes think we can hear you now. Yes well, its, uh, 13,000 votes. Notes that , um, jen kitchen got notes that, um, jen kitchen got there. Toby perkins. Just give me your reaction to the labour win here. Well wow. You know what a result i think of all the elections in, uh , iells. Long history. This think of all the elections in, uh , iells. Long history. This is uh, iells. Long history. This is the second biggest, uh, swing thats ever been. So we were feeling increasingly upbeat as the campaign went on, but i never saw that sort of victory coming. I mean, were just blown away. Um, and coming. I mean, were just blown away. Um, and it opens up huge possibilities for us. Obviously, hes still masses of work to do before the general election, but a place like wellingborough, with a long history of tory vote in recent years, 18,500 majority last time for us to come here and win like that 28. 5 swing, uh, just couldnt be better. Labours getting pretty good at giving the tories a kick in in by elections. But we know that by elections in general, elections are very different. Do you think that by the time that there is a general election, the labour is up to scratch to labour party is up to scratch to potentially a general potentially win a general election take power again . Election and take power again . I think weve got well, yeah, i think weve got real potential do that. Real potential to do that. I think weve kind of poll think weve got the kind of poll leads kind leads and the kind of by election that by election victories that an opposition has when they go on to but thats not the same to win. But thats not the same as the jobs done. Weve to win. But thats not the same as a the jobs done. Weve to win. But thats not the same as a lot the jobs done. Weve to win. But thats not the same as a lot moreobs done. Weve to win. But thats not the same as a lot more worhone. Weve to win. But thats not the same as a lot more work to e. Weve to win. But thats not the same as a lot more work to do. Ieve to win. But thats not the same as a lot more work to do. Wee got a lot more work to do. We will continue to lay out our policies, but obviously as far as tonight is concerned, you know, a huge triumph. Do you think that they were voting for jen kitchen, or do you think that they were simply not voting for tories, voting for for the tories, not voting for peter uh, no. I think we peter bone . Uh, no. I think we got a positive vote for jen kitchen. We got a positive vote for labour party. Of course, for the labour party. Of course, there um, also a comment there was, um, also a comment made the conservative made about the conservative party in all its forms. But i think that its been really clear the number of conservative voters coming over to us directly this time , that this is directly this time, that this is a positive vote for labour. Theres a conversation going on about reform and their place in the upcoming general election. The two by elections show that people are willing vote for people are willing to vote for reform, that might split reform, and that might split the tory might that split tory vote, but might that split the labour vote well, the labour vote as well, particularly in wall seats particularly in red wall seats like chesterfield . Like in chesterfield . Think the reality is that i think the reality is that no party owns voters. Voters no party owns voters. Voters will make their choice every time, and there are many people who voted reform who had already written the tories off and were considering other parties. So many people have voted labour that might have considered reform. So, you know, i think the idea is some tories have that you can just take the reform vote and pop it on top of the tory vote, its all the the tory vote, and its all the same people. It is absolute rubbish. You know, think rubbish. You know, i think theres people making theres many people making different were theres many people making diffythere were theres many people making diffythere fight were theres many people making diffythere fight for were theres many people making diffythere fight for every re vote. Um, finally, voter turnout, not dreadful 38, but its not van tam stick. Its not a general election levels. Do you think that people have just given up on politics, whether its a bit of fun in a by election, something to make note of the news . We note of in the news . Or have we just completely given up on politics . No, not at all. I mean, by elections always have a lower turnout and this a relatively turnout and this is a relatively normal by election turnout. So, you know, my impression from the time weve spent is a lot of enthusiasm for our candidate. And thats why weve got the sensational result. We got and a lot of enthusiasm across labour right now. Is it just here in wellingborough . It just in wellingborough . Is it just in kingswood or this now kingswood or is this now a National Labour party . Kingswood or is this now a natwell, labour party . Kingswood or is this now a natwell, no, ur party . Kingswood or is this now a natwell, no, irr party . Kingswood or is this now a natwell, no, i mean y . Kingswood or is this now a natwell, no, i mean its very well, no, i mean its very much labour party. Much a National Labour party. And will go out and the message that will go out from wellingborough that from wellingborough is that if we can here, we can be we can win here, we can be competitive anywhere in the country i think be country and i think therell be several conservative mps not sleeping well tonight. W tonight. Well, hopefully fantastic. Well, hopefully well a little bit of well get a little bit of a sleep soon. Toby perkins, mp for chesterfield. Thank you for coming and speaking to us on gb news here at wellingborough news here at the wellingborough by election. Still news here at the wellingborough by eia tion. Still news here at the wellingborough by eia iewi. Still news here at the wellingborough by eia few people still quite a few people hanging around. Hoping to bring around. Were hoping to bring you kitchen the next half you jen kitchen in the next half an or of course an hour or so. But of course there is lots of media here for this by election and theyre all hoping to speak to wellingboroughs hoping to speak to weibrillianthhs will, well brilliant stuff will, well be with you as and when we be back with you as and when we get more people on the ground there astonishing. Well there at that. Astonishing. Well result. A trouncing of the result. Uh a trouncing of the conservative party. But, uh, i must say we have mentioned the rochdale by election and that means we have to talk about all the candidates. So here they come. As are. Ali is the labour come. As are. Ali is the Labour Party Candidate officially, although have disowned him. Although they have disowned him. Mark coleman is an independent. Simon standing for Simon Danczuk is standing for reform uk. Ian donaldson , reform uk. Ian donaldson, liberal democrat. Paul ellison, conservative. George galloway, Workers Party of britain Michael Howarth, independent william howarth, independent william howarth, independent. Guy otten, green party. Raven rodent, sabatina , official monster sabatina, official monster raving loony and david tully, independent. Well, there we go. Its really good that we get to know all of those candidates. Im sure that has left you really well informed. And but were here through to 6 am. Bringing you reaction to these eventful nights in these by elections , this eventful night elections, this eventful night in wellingborough and in kingswood. This is gb news britains election channel. And im delighted to say that joining us live in the studio is Ann Whittaker , former Ann Whittaker, former conservative minister. Uh, then later a brexit party mep and now a supporter of reform uk. Ann uh a supporter of reform uk. Ann uh , reform uk has clearly proven itself that these polling numbers are real, but theyre nowhere close to winning. Nowhere close to winning. Well, youre quite right. They have proven themselves, um , they have proven themselves, um, people were dismissing the National Polls as orwellian. It5 National Polls as orwellian. Its a bit of a fluke. It isnt actually going to be translated into to ballots. Um, and these two by elections have both shown them before the them wrong. Now, before the kingswood i had said kingswood by election i had said to had said to me, well, to rupert had said to me, well, he was hoping hed be able to get and i said, oh, thats get 10. And i said, oh, thats ambitious, thats ambitious. Well, he got 10. 4, well, i was wrong. He got 10. 4, 13 in wellingborough. Im a very happy woman tonight. I think reform is on its way. Its not there. Its not at the not there. Its not at the winning post yet. But its on its way and people will now be talking about reform. Um, uh, i talking about reform. Um, uh, i did notice a huge difference when i did kingswood early in the by elections. I did wellingborough at a very late stage in the by elections. Um sorry, the other way round. And in wellingborough i was getting quite a lot of people saying to me, who you . You know, what me, who are you . You know, what is reform . Kingswood only once. Is reform . Kingswood only once. A lot of interesting. Because a lot of people were saying that wellingborough was the big chance reform uk of 13. If chance of reform uk of 13. If anything , there was more anything, there was more activity in wellingborough. Activity in wellingborough. Wellingborough had a higher leave vote, 63 the leave vote, 63 leave in the referendum in kingswood, 57 leave still above average. But leave still above average. But interestingly , perhaps kingswood interestingly, perhaps kingswood is the more interesting result there just because it was not expected that it would break into double figures. Yeah indeed. I mean, reformers talked about wellingborough the whole time, as you know, as being double figures and indeed it was. And kingswood, i think you know, initially we werent even certain that we were going to fight it for the very simple reason that its disappearing that disappears at that seat disappears at the general. And we thought general election. And we thought it waste of public it was a huge waste of public money even this election. Money to even run this election. But then we decided we would fight you know, fight it because, as you know, were going to fight every single seat in the general election. Obviously that election. And obviously that decision that decision was right. And that decision was right. And that decision is largely due to rupert who really pressed rupert low, who really pressed for what do you make of now, ann, what do you make of the comments people who have the comments of people who have done maths . Yeah, done some maths . Yeah, have looked conservative vote, looked at the conservative vote, looked at the conservative vote, looked reform vote in looked at the reform vote in kingswood , added them together kingswood, added them together and a head the and see thats a head of the labour party. Thats right. Thats right, thats right. Thats right, thats right. What do you make of that. What do you make of that. Well what i make of that is first of all, you must surely have expected that. I mean, i have expected that. I mean, i think that a fairly think that will be a fairly normal pattern. And that is why the tories, i think, are finally starting to take us seriously. I think initially they dismissed it all, you know. Well that didnt really matter now as far as were concerned. Were not doing deals with the tories. We did that last time and look where it got us. It didnt get us any very real brexit or big enthusiast for brexit. It got us a rotten deal in Northern Ireland. They gave us no credit at all for the fact that we actually allowed them to win in that election by withdrawing against the conservative candidates. People that you some people say that if you had withdrawn against the labour candidates, the majority would be would be be far more than 80. It would be over well, actually, over 100 seats. Well, actually, i the results, i went through the results, seat by seat and the fact is that we were not miliband would have lost seat. Lost his seat. Have been well, that would have been very but thats not quite , very nice. But thats not quite, uh, the major point that were considering here. And i did go through the results, and its very clear that if we had, you know, if we had stood against conservatives, um, in their own seats, particularly where the majorities werent absolutely marvellous, you know, we delivered that result to them. Now, all im saying is, you know, learned from that. Know, weve learned from that. Were falling for that one were not falling for that one again. Its no good. Them saying, youre splitting saying, oh, but youre splitting our labour. We our vote against labour. We shall what you told shall say thats what you told us time. Us last time. Before extend now, just before i extend this conversation to our wonderful hello, by wonderful panel. Um, hello, by the and ive heard your the way, uh, and ive heard your leader, richard tice, talk about starmageddon. Yes he is terrified of the prospect of keir starmer as Prime Minister. Thinks he would be a disaster. Should the kingswood numbers mean that hes making it more likely . On i hear this argument all the time , you know, and they all the time, you know, and they say, well, were splitting the tories. Excuse me a minute. You know, im looking around. Im trying to find these tories because i dont any tories. We have a dont see any tories. We have a red opposition we have red opposition and we have a pink now, what pink government. Now, what reform is offering is genuine, common sense policies. Reform is offering is genuine, common sense policies. What common sense policies. What would have been the old conservative policies . Thats what were offering. And frankly , as i say, we heard this argument before we fell for it in the last general election. We aint falling for it again. Well, listening to you very intently is Aaron Bastani, the co founder of novara media, and Mark Littlewood , the new head of Mark Littlewood, the new head of the popular conservative group. Aaron, you were scribbling away. On my goodness, what do you make oh my goodness, what do you make of what ann said . I think thats well, theres a lot of truth to it. If you look at the 2015 general election, ukip get the best part of 4 million votes. If memory serves me, and one seat and the tories get a majority, which course they get which of course they dont get in this idea, this in 2010. So this idea, this canard that, oh, youre canard that, oh, well, youre going split vote and let going to split the vote and let labour in. That didnt happen in 2015. Like you say 2019, 2015. And like you say in 2019, the arrangements hunky the arrangements were hunky dory, johnson dory, frankly, for Boris Johnson and conservatives. Look in and the conservatives. Look in british politics over the last 10 to 15 years, weve had two different approaches. Weve had the of Ukip Brexit Party the sort of Ukip Brexit Party approach the green approach and weve had the green party the green party Party Approach. The green Party Approach we want to get deep councils. We want to get deep organising, get somebody in. Its worked in place so far its worked in one place so far it may work in bristol central with caledonia, they may get a second seat all likelihood. I second seat in all likelihood. I think over the next ten years they will get several seats. On that basis. Its a very different approach to what you get with hollywood tv , get with farage. Hollywood tv, media, good results in by elections dont quite get over the line. I think this might sound counterintuitive because the greens dont poll as well as reform. Um, i think reform needs to take a page out of the green partys book, which is. No, i dont think so. No, i dont think so. Deep organising. I dont think organising, embedding think deep organising, embedding in just in certain seats and just building up. I think to look i think you need to look at 20, constituencies and think i think you need to look at 20,can constituencies and think i think you need to look at 20,canconsthese cies and think i think you need to look at 20,canconsthese overand think i think you need to look at 20,canconsthese over ad think i think you need to look at 20,canconsthese over a ten ink i think you need to look at 20,canconsthese over a ten year we can win these over a ten year time frame. Im not saying its not. Its not or the other, but i not one or the other, but i think that thinking wouldnt hurt actually think it well, i actually think it would be quite nice if we were to make some. If you look at the pace of the green partys results, if we were to make some advance, you know, before the last day of judgement, and i dont see that happening if we go greens and were going go at the greens and were going to go at the farage pace, which go at the greens and were going to different. Farage pace, which is different. No, the point is farage no, but the point is farage shape political conversation no, but the point is farage shimade political conversation no, but the point is farage shimade brexit cal conversation no, but the point is farage shimade brexit happen. Ersation no, but the point is farage shimade brexit happen. Buttion he made brexit happen. But actually of without actually in terms of without ever being in parliament precisely without winning councils. Greens councils. Look the greens control council. Theyve got councils. Look the greens cthink council. Theyve got councils. Look the greens cthink 500 council. Theyve got councils. Look the greens cthink 500 councillors. Yve got councils. Look the greens cthink 500 councillors. Now got councils. Look the greens cthink 500 councillors. Now the i think 500 councillors. Now the point youd agree point is i think youd agree with this. Your ceilings are a with this. Your ceilings are a lot higher than the green party. Youve got millions of disaffected conservatives out there. Think im not saying there. So i think im not saying this to wind you up. I think the idea of deep organising along the whole media driven politics, which farage is brilliant at, is where you want to be at. And i think if reform go for this yet, well get 20 in National Polls. But you need the councils, you need the deep organising and youve got years of brexit youve got ten years of brexit activism and all these networks that have been built up to draw upon. Quick response from you an. Well i mean, its quite true that, you know, we have networks that, you know, we have networks that draw but its that we could draw on, but its also that going we are also true that going as we are at moment, we are making at the moment, we are making a terrific set of strides in this. Terrific set of strides in this. If you think that 10, 13, you think where we were at the beginning of last year, where we were then , that is the pace were then, that is the pace were moving at. But again, this is talking about the overall polling rather than winning specific seats. Mark littlewood, do you think reform uk is more a political reform uk is more of a Political Party aimed at getting seats or a Pressure Group aimed at influencing the wider conversation . Exactly. Well , look, this a yeah, well, look, this is a Political Party. I dont think anybody should turn their nose up at any candidate that runs. And, you know, reform has got a meaningful share here. But meaningful vote share here. But but you could argue that its long terme road will be to alter one of the major parties, most likely the conservative tvs. And thatis likely the conservative tvs. And that is in fact what nigel farage is. Success has been over the years, going back to ukip. He didnt win a seat himself, but i think you could well argue that he has been the most influential politician of the last quarter of a century, because he forced the conservatives to call a referendum. Think without referendum. I think without nigel farage that would never have the have happened. He forced the conservatives to take brexit seriously at the last election and might be disappointed with the final way brexit was done, but it required the brexit party to that pressure on the to put that pressure on at the euro elections, where they won outright all of outright and was elected. All of that ended up really being pressure. The party, ukip pressure. The brexit party, ukip and have never been and reform have never been anywhere near close to forming a government, but that does not make at all. And make them relevant at all. And the conservative party should be looking at these results and thinking, well, you looking at these results and thinking, well , you know, how thinking, well, you know, how the do add to the vote the hell do we add to the vote share that we picked up here . You a poor vote share you know, a poor vote share worse the in worse the result in wellingborough kingswood wellingborough than in kingswood. And presumably say, well,. And you presumably say, well, theres of theres a good number of conservatives sitting conservatives who are sitting on their hands. Do we actually their hands. How do we actually motivate to but motivate them to vote . But then youll at the reform youll be looking at the reform vote saying, how we tap vote and saying, how can we tap into encourage those to into that or encourage those to vote . Conservative as well , vote . Can conservative as well, which doesnt necessarily require pact or a deal, but it require a pact or a deal, but it does require in a competitive electoral environment , a major electoral environment, a major Political Party to recognise that theres a quite a chunk of votes out here that you need to be gunning for and appealing to. I think the problem with that analysis, good one, analysis, and its a good one, but think the problem with but i think the problem with that is that that that analysis is that that appued that analysis is that that applied to what happened applied exactly to what happened last believed last time, that we believed because of the pressure wed put on that, you first all, on that, you know, first of all, wed get brexit. That wed get all secondly, that wed get all the other things like lower taxes. It didnt happen. It didnt therefore , i didnt happen. And therefore, i think solely on being think relying solely on being able to change a big party. Part of the tactic, though, is , of the tactic, though, it is, cannot be the end in itself. Cannot be the end in itself. So its not the end in itself, but already probably youve had that effect. I mean, this will be affecting conservative party thinking the fact theyre so but theyre fact that theyre so but theyre so chaotic and disunited. I think also the other and i think also the other thing that weve all tended to dismiss is we well, turnout dismiss is we say, well, turnout is and by election. So is lower and by election. So its very surprising this is its not very surprising this is okay. But i know because i wasnt sitting there an wasnt sitting there doing an analysis, actually out on analysis, i was actually out on the people who the doorsteps. People who were saying dont want any of saying to me, dont want any of you not voting again. You know , you not voting again. You know, really that is now a force in itself. Well, weve heard a lot about reform. Lets just hear from sir keir starmer, who responded to both by election results. He said these these are fantastic results in kingswood and wellingborough that show people want change and are ready to put their faith in a change. Labour party to deliver it by winning in these tory strongholds , we in these tory strongholds, we can confidently say that labour is back in the service of working people and we will work tirelessly to deliver for them the tories have failed rishis recession proves that those who gave us their trust in kingswood and wellingborough , and those and wellingborough, and those considering doing so , can be considering doing so, can be safe in the knowledge that we will spend every day working to get britains future back. And there we go. That was sir Keir Starmers statement again, digging into that refrain of a rishis recession. Uh much in the same way that the tories in 2010 blamed gordon brown for the Global Financial crisis. Lets go now to will hollis, who is with ben habib, the third place reform uk candidate in wellingborough. Wellingborough. Yes. Well, weve been seeing the reaction to jen kitchen 13,000 votes. You can see here in kettering where theyve been doing the count that a lot of people are starting to go home now. They pack these things down incredibly quickly. Months of planning and then it all seems to disappear as well as all of the people that youre trying to speak to. Weve also heard from toby perkins , labour mp for toby perkins, labour mp for chesterfield, and he says that whats happened tonight shows that labour can also win in general elections. We know that by election wins dont always translate to general election wins. Weve been speaking to jen kitchen just a few moments ago and she was describing how excited she is. Of course, shes very tired as well, but now we can speak to ben habib, who is from the reform party. Ben, youve got just shy of 4000 votes. Is that as many as you would have liked or even expected . Here well, what i would have liked is by the way, im not is to win. By the way, im not tired all. Im tip top, top tired at all. Im tip top, top of the as i said, weve of the pops. As i said, weve done really well, you know, look at reform. Reform an at reform. Reform is an insurgency. New business, insurgency. Its a new business, isnt started three years isnt it . We started three years ago. Months ago, we 5 ago. Three months ago, we did 5 in tamworth, slightly less than that mid bedfordshire. Today that in mid bedfordshire. Today weve done 10 kingswood weve done 10 in kingswood where saying were where people were saying we were going our deposit. Weve going to lose our deposit. Weve done which more done 13 here, which is more than our National Polling. This is staging post in growth is a staging post in the growth of recognition in of reform uks recognition in the growth of peoples understand of what we stand for. And in case anyone on gb news doesnt know what we stand for, we stand for genuine small c conservative policies , cutting conservative policies, cutting taxes on the working and middle classes, cutting taxes on businesses , um, making sure that businesses, um, making sure that we dont undercut british workers with cheap imported laboun workers with cheap imported labour, reduce immigration dramatically, stop the boats getting rid of the economically emasculating net zero, which is driving our economy into the ground. You dont save the planet by killing the economy. These are sensible , common sense these are sensible, common sense policies which cut through in wellingborough in a four week penod wellingborough in a four week period and think, whats going to happen in the general election . Im going to stand here again. Im going to take the fight again to the other, other and were other parties, and were going to much better in the general election. What is this achievable in a year span that well see the general election . Is this something in something thats achievable in the years . Say that the next ten years . You say that you a party in power, you want to be a party in power, but isnt it really just a party to split the conservative vote right now . At all. Im not in not at all. Im not in politics to split the conservative i joined conservative vote. When i joined reform it to reform uk, i did it to obliterate tory party. Well, obliterate the tory party. Well, theyve kind of beaten me to it. What a genuine what we are is a genuine democratic choice for the british i believe, i british people. I believe, and i think understand think people understand and accept also believe that the accept and also believe that the country, as the way its being governed at the moment, is facing threat. Facing an existential threat. You cant have open borders, you cant have debt going through the like weve had, you the roof like weve had, you know, post world ii high in know, post world war ii high in debt, gdp shrinking, debt, taxation, gdp shrinking, 6 million people. You know, surviving on universal credit. Surviving on universal credit. This is a broken economy. We need a rapid change of direction. Only reform uk offers that change of direction. We need to get bums on green seats so we can change the way this country is governed. We saw in 2019 a lot of traditional labour voters going to the conservatives. Some people might say that those voters are now going to go towards reform. Um, but how is towards reform. Um, but how is it likely that they wont just go straight back to labour in the general election, and then therell nothing for therell be nothing left for reform, therell be nothing reform, or therell be nothing left conservatives . Left for the conservatives . Anyone whos thinking well, anyone whos thinking of voting labour really isnt ever vote for reform. Ever going to vote for reform. We are diametrically opposed to just everything they for. Just about everything they for. Stand so im not worried about people who wish to get labour policies. Anyone, by the way, who wants to put labour into office needs their head examined. Frankly um, but, you know, we offer a genuine small c conservative proud britains direct related low taxation , uh, direct related low taxation, uh, alternative for governance. And alternative for governance. And i think the british people recognise thats what we need. Youve got to grow the economy. Youve got to grow the economy. Youve got to grow the economy. You cant put Wealth Redistribution at the heart of your policies, which is what the conservatives have done. We need Wealth Creation. Ian. You cant Wealth Creation. Ian. You cant create this dependency that theyve done in the electorate without damaging the economy. We without damaging the economy. We need aspiration. You get aspiration back into the human spirit by making it worthwhile to work. And you can only do that if you cut taxes. Its simple , a great message. Simple, a great message. Its very likely, though, that in the general election it will be labour that are back in power. It also looks very likely that were going kicked that were going to be kicked out ketterings leisure out of ketterings Leisure Centre. Your word do out of ketterings leisure centendour word do out of ketterings leisure centend this word do out of ketterings leisure centend this nightnord do out of ketterings leisure centend this night with do out of ketterings leisure centend this night with a do out of ketterings leisure centend this night with a smile you end this night with a smile on your face . Absolutely. Why would i not smile . Think about the trajectory that were on. 5 three ago, tonight three months ago, 13. Tonight extrapolate that well be at 100 by the time we get to the general election. Perfect. Ben habib, thanks perfect. Ben habib, thanks for waiting around to speak to us for gb news pretty much the last ones here. Um, were going to leaving kettering shortly to be leaving kettering shortly with of people with smiles with a lot of people with smiles on their even if they on their face, even if they might not have the seat here might not have won the seat here in wellingborough with ambitions to back and maybe to come back to here and maybe fight harder, will hollis, fight even harder, will hollis, youve absolute trooper. Youve been an absolute trooper. Much for thank you so much for sticking and getting sticking around and getting those interviews. Really appreciate good to appreciate it. Really good to hear and uh, my goodness, what a what a prediction from ben habib 100. The sort of opinion 100. Thats the sort of opinion poll rating kim jong un could only dream of. But weve heard only dream of. But weve heard a statement from sir keir starmer. Weve heard from ben habib, why dont we hear from the conservative party next . Then well get the set of all top three performing parties, all the parties that broke into double figures. James daly is double figures. James daly is the deputy chair of the conservative party and the member of parliament for bury nonh member of parliament for bury north and joins me now. Jamie its been a disappointing night for your party. Beyond disappointing. Its been pretty disappointing. Its been pretty savage. Savage. Well, its always disappointing, tom, when the conservative candidate doesnt win. Um, i think that we could have a discussion regarding the local circumstances of each of each of the by elections that weve seen here tonight. I think were going to see a different by election again, when perhaps tommy you may will be tommy and you might, may will be talking rochdale a few talking after rochdale in a few weeks so individual weeks time. And so individual circumstances matter in circumstances really matter in terms of these votes. Terms of some of these votes. I think the, um , the how can think that the, um, the how can i put it in i think in the kingswood by election, 25,000 people approximately didnt vote who voted in 2019 been around 20,000 people didnt vote in this in the in the wellingborough election, i think that what that suggests and what that what that suggests and what that tells me is its in line with the polling, which i find is that a lot of people havent made their up. A lot made their mind up. A lot of people want support a plan people want to support a plan that uh, fit and is going to that is, uh, fit and is going to be a positive , optimistic plan be a positive, optimistic plan for the future of this country. For the future of this country. I think rishi sunak is the only leader that we have with that plan. I think the other thing about this, and one of the things that comes back me, things that comes back to me, thomas, know, do a lot of thomas, you know, i do a lot of campaigning around the country, whether locally in whether its locally here in bury, or elsewhere , is that bury, uh, or elsewhere, is that there no, know, people bury, uh, or elsewhere, is that therethe no, know, people bury, uh, or elsewhere, is that therethe no, that ow, people bury, uh, or elsewhere, is that therethe no, that is, people bury, uh, or elsewhere, is that therethe no, that is a eople bury, uh, or elsewhere, is that therethe no, that is a drage bury, uh, or elsewhere, is that therethe no, that is a drag on that the thing that is a drag on the labour vote is keir starmer. Ive not met anybody yet. Who is who is running out the door saying were inspired by keir starmer. King of the starmer. Hes the king of the flip know, weve seen flip flops. You know, weve seen how many times he changed his policy, including last week on the billion Central Green the £28 billion Central Green economic. And the other economic policy. And the other thing on a on one thing ive just been on a on one of your competitors channels, and talking about the and weve been talking about the issue conservative to labour issue of conservative to labour switches from 2019. And i think thats a central issue that should be at the heart of this. Should be at the heart of this. Now, from both the campaigns , now, from both the campaigns, from both of the people who ive been speaking to, you know, the people being central to our efforts in both constituencies. Efforts in both constituencies. We found any or very we have not found any or very negligible numbers of conservative to labour switches. The reason for that, as ive said, tom, is that people arent inspired starmer. They inspired by keir starmer. They want a plan. They want to support, see what support, they want to see what you know , what this government you know, what this government is and i think by is going to do. And i think by the time of the general election, you know, we are going to plan were to have that plan and were going deliver for the local going to deliver for the local people, people people, and people can have confidence in our track record. Going back to 2010, that we can drive make sure that drive forward and make sure that in of country we in all parts of the country we have high skilled, high have high, high skilled, high paid have a an paid jobs. We have a an immigration that works immigration system that works with with the with reduce immigration with the plans at this plans that weve got at this moment time. And when it moment in time. And when it comes down to it, you know, im not a politician like ben habib who says i am not who just says i am not interested whatsoever under any circumstances in people who consider voting think consider voting labour. I think its statement its an extraordinary statement for to make, to say that for anybody to make, to say that people need the head examined, because that for because i think that for a conservative i want to conservative party, i want to ensure that everyone has the opportunity to back the plan that rishi sunak has deliver that rishi sunak has to deliver prosperity to every part of the country. What a lot of people will be saying to that. Theyll be hearing you and theyll thinking, you know theyll be thinking, you know what . Really good. What . That sounds really good. I want plan for the economy. Want a plan for the economy. Lots will be saying, lots of people will be saying, i want migration come want migration to come down. Lots of people will be saying, i want those waiting lists down. I want those waiting lists down. I want to return to growth. But then theyll say, who the then theyll say, who are the guysin then theyll say, who are the guys in charge . And whats happened the happened under the watch of the guys you say guys in charge . And you say theres for keir theres no enthusiasm for keir starmer. Thats true, but starmer. Maybe thats true, but hes just won two by elections with extraordinary swings of 16 points. And that was in kingswood. And more than that in kingswood. And more than that in wellingborough. Uh, for someone wellingborough. Uh, for someone that no enthusiasm for, that theres no enthusiasm for, he keeps he just keeps winning. He just keeps winning. Well i, i dont dispute that these are disappointing results for the conservative party. And tom, as i say, were all at heart amateur psephologists. We can take what we what we see in respect to these results. When youre in any type of contest, what really matters in the is who wins and who the end is who wins and who loses. Thats the central loses. So thats the central thing. And i congratulate the candidates. On, know, candidates. Uh, on on, you know, on their success in respect of this. But when i look at the votes, i would assume that if the accurate, if there the polls are accurate, if there is lead and we can is a 20 lead and we can extrapolate that in respect to the weve seen here the swing that weve seen here today, we would see mass switching from the conservative to of to the labour party in both of these seats. We essentially seen , um, you know, the labour vote in terms of numbers either standstill or slightly go down. And weve seen the collapse of the lib dem vote in both of these areas. So in of these areas. So in terms of enthusiasm, tom, i would have been see an been expecting to see an increase in those numbers. People out of people coming out on top of those who motivated in 2019 those who were motivated in 2019 to vote for keir starmer. But they are not there. What this poll , 1997 tony they are not there. What this poll, 1997 tony blair won fewer votes than john major did in 1992, and yet he won a massive majority. How is that possible . A load how is that possible . A load of conservatives in 1997 decided to stay at home. That was one of the biggest factors in terms of why tony blair won that enormous victory. Its not an excuse to just say that tories are staying home. Thats what happened in 97. No, no, 97. No, no, no, 97. No, no, no, listen, 97. No, no, no, listen, i 97. No, no, no, listen, i think were were agreeing, tom, in respect of that. The point ive made to im i the point ive made to you is backing up that point that the next election is that how the next election is going to be decided is exactly on that point. I am arguing that on that point. I am arguing that on basis, you know, we you on the basis, you know, we you know, know whether know, i dont know whether youve a labour supporter, youve got a labour supporter, whoever studio whoever youve got in the studio there would there with you. They would disputes from the fact that i can put out i could give you some economic facts, which i think that since 2010, think that show that since 2010, the party have been think that show that since 2010, trforce party have been think that show that since 2010, trforce for party have been think that show that since 2010, trforce for good party have been think that show that since 2010, trforce for good inarty have been think that show that since 2010, trforce for good in thishave been a force for good in this country. Economically, country. So really economically, uh, and in all sorts of other ways, that the plan that ways, i think that the plan that rishi sunak has now, as compared to party leader, and to any other party leader, and it that will give it is the plan that will give the confidence the country confidence that when it comes to it, when it really comes down to it, when it really comes down to it, when it comes down to the it really comes down to the decision that matters, when it really comes down to whether you know youre going to vote for a party with a plan to tackle immigration or essentially has an open door immigration plan as per, as keir per, you know, as per keir starmer, that going starmer, that is really going to matter in wellingborough in particular. Fed back to particular. It was fed back to me that the central issue in that the fight, you know, in that in the fight, you know, in the the contest, there was the in the contest, there was immigration boats, was immigration was small boats, was stopping if we stopping those boats and if we do stop those boats, then we do not stop those boats, then we perhaps to be in perhaps are going to be in a position where people in wellingborough say, wellingborough are going to say, well, you had your well, you know, you had your opportunity, but i have absolute confidence that confidence in the policies that weve what the prime weve got and what the Prime Minister undertaken to minister has undertaken to deliver people. But wellingborough to wellingborough will be able to see that the policies that see that on the policies that matter to them National Matter to them on a national level. This is a government thats delivering well james daly, chairman daly, deputy chairman of the conservative thank you conservative party thank you very much appearing the very much for appearing on the show putting your points across. You really appreciate it at this unsocial hour. Well, this very unsocial hour. Well, still remaining on the still remaining with us on the panel Mark Littlewood, panel is Mark Littlewood, the director popular director of the popular conservatives group. Also, Aaron Bastani of novara media and Ann Widdecombe, now supporting reform uk. Mark, what do you reform uk. Mark, what do you make of the defence that james daly gave us . Well, well, i mean its a tough job isnt it, to be. I mean hes an official spokesperson from the conservative not conservative party. Theres not much good news to say. Just to look numbers. I was just look at the numbers. I was just doing maths doing the maths in wellingborough, swing wellingborough, a 28. 5 swing from conservative to labour, which is the second largest swing from tory to labour in a by election since the second world war. Thats a very , very world war. Thats a very, very bad result indeed. Uh, i must admit, going back to what ben habib was saying a bit beforehand, this is an interesting difference or distinction. And also listening to the way that ann was advocating for reform uk as well, it does mean a difference between reform uk and ukip is reform uk, at least from what ive just heard from ann in the studio and ben habib from the count. Um ambiguously positioning themselves as a centre right party. Ukip not so much. When nigel farage was the leader of ukip, he was a pains to say we appeal to labour and we appeal to conservatives. But we appeal to conservatives. But this is a much more straight conservative platform thing because in the early days ukip was a Libertarian Party was quite a Libertarian Party and nigel farage flirted with legalising cannabis. He would talk about the states being too big, but as ukip did better and better, they moved perhaps further and further from free Market Economics and towards a more communitarian idea of what their party should be. Its the its the same journey that alternative for deutschland took in germany, albeit they took it much, further. And the much, much further. And the original people of that party quit rest of it, um, quit and all the rest of it, um, might we see perhaps a similar journey for reform uk in their vote seeking guise, perhaps drop some of free Market Economics . Well, i dont know. But i mean, from what weve heard, quite the opposite. From what weve heard from Ann Widdecombe and couldnt be and ben habib couldnt be clearer. I mean, on a policy basis, not much. I disagree with at pains to say lower at all, at pains to say lower taxes , Wealth Creation in order taxes, Wealth Creation in order to boost the economy rather than only obsessing about Wealth Redistribution , actually getting redistribution, actually getting to a situation which we can legally control our own borders. Legally control our own borders. Whatever you think our immigration policy should be, this which causes, i think , a this which causes, i think, a challenge for the conservative party is unambiguous a pitch to people who have right of centre opinions much more explicitly so than was the case for ukip, which was closer to being a one issue party just about leaving the european union. Aaron bastani , what do you Aaron Bastani, what do you make of this, uh, reform uk perhaps a more sophisticated message . Well, i was surprised at what ben habib said there because as a politician or a Political Party, you want votes from anywhere . I dont quite anywhere . Yes. And i dont quite understand. And you, you will have who have many labour voters who historically labour. Most historically vote labour. Most of they still of the time, but they still voted thatcher once or they voted for thatcher once or they voted for thatcher once or they voted cameron or boris in voted for cameron or boris in 2019. So look a bit sleep depnved. 2019. So look a bit sleep deprived. Uh, lets give him the deprived. Uh, lets give him the benefit of the doubt. What i would say is in his favour. You know, you have james daly. I dont mean to be mean to james daly. Hes coming on your show at this ungodly hour. But youve got james there. Hes got james daly there. Hes a hes a deputy chair of the conservative habib conservative party ben habib comes far more comes across as a far more impressive person. Im, im im sorry. Know, the sorry. You know, the conservative partys most successful the western conservative partys most succesyoure the western conservative partys most succesyoure the the western conservative partys most succesyoure the deputy iestern conservative partys most succesyoure the deputy chair. | world. Youre the deputy chair. Im not saying youre appalling. Ben a more impressive ben habib is a more impressive person, and i understand. Look, reform these people person, and i understand. Look, reform i these people person, and i understand. Look, reform i appreciate hese people person, and i understand. Look, reform i appreciate that. People on tap. I appreciate that. Habib, i think is the and ben habib, i think is the deputy of reform. Deputy leader of reform. I appreciate that. But you know, it comes down to personnel. The conservative party. Is what party. And i think this is what ann saying and what ben was ann is saying and what ben was saying. Cant change. They saying. They cant change. They dont look dont have the personnel. Look at arent at the mp5. They arent impressive people. They havent got they dont have got a backbone, they dont have ideas. Conservative ideas. And the conservative party, when they party, i think even when they lose, they are still going be lose, they are still going to be the of cbi. The feet, the party of the cbi. The feet, and theyre not going to break with of the sort status with lots of the sort of status quoideas with lots of the sort of status quo ideas had over the quo ideas theyve had over the last 15 years, whether thats on net zero. I agree with net zero a lot more than ann does, but theyre not going to break with it as my point. So i, i think the idea that there are Pressure Group conservative group to put the conservative party different trajectory party on a different trajectory is misguided. From what is misguided. And from what youre from what ben youre saying, from what ben saying, agree. And saying, you would agree. So and how you make what you make how do you make what do you make of that . Well, i i thought that well, i mean, i thought that what said was absolutely what ben said was absolutely right, be wrong to right, but it would be wrong to assume our voters assume that all our voters coming the conservatives, i coming from the conservatives, i mean, i personally met some that were when were coming from labour and when the brexit party formed, we were absolutely we were absolutely determined we were going ex labour people going to have ex labour people there, as well as ex conservatives. Think is true and i think the same is true for i think what ben for reform. But i think what ben is saying look, you know, is saying is, look, you know, the are not offering an the tories are not offering an alternative and we will offer an alternative and we will offer an alternative to labour. And if you take Something Like net zero, you know that is starting to appeal to people now. To appeal to people now. Initially people oh, you initially people said, oh, you know, very etc. Know, its very worthy, etc. When their boilers that when its their boilers that theyve got to spend money on their cars, that got to their cars, that theyve got to spend money on, then it becomes Something Different and we saw that ulez by election, that with the ulez by election, for example. Well, lets remind ourselves of the results that weve heard this evening. The kingswood results are that damian egan, the Labour Party Candidate, has won that seat with 11,151 votes. Sam bromley, the conservative candidate over 8000 votes. Rupert lowe of reform uk, came in with 2578 votes and over 10. Then the lib dems are lost their deposit, as did ukip. The green party and the rest. Now over to party and the rest. Now over to wellingborough for a more sensational win for the labour party, where the labour party romped home with 13,000. Almost 14,000 votes and 46 of the vote. Helen harrison was the runner up on 25 and ben habib of reform uk came in with 13. The liberal democrats again lost their deposit, as did the greens and the rest , their deposit, as did the greens and the rest, but their deposit, as did the greens and the rest , but that their deposit, as did the greens and the rest, but that is the state of play at this point. On state of play at this point. On friday morning, as i suppose it is no longer thursday night. There is so much more to discuss, so much more to digest. And frankly, where do things go from here . How does parliament respond to these results . And what does this mean for how rishi sunak, the Prime Minister, goes about governing and even campaigning for this is an Election Year . This is britains Election Year . This is britains Election Year . This is britains election channel. Youre watching gb news the live results programme for these two sensational by elections. And sensational by elections. And well be getting full coverage continued throughout the morning. And whats more than that . Not just coverage but reaction , just coverage but reaction, response and forward moving analysis to stick with us here on good, on zigi on gb news as gb news. Britains election channel. I think the most exciting bit for me is talking to people , all for me is talking to people, all people who i think are ignored often by the major news channels i were going to give news they want to hear. Theres a voice there that needs to be heard. I think theres a chance here for a diversity of opinion to be expressed, which you dont find elsewhere. Really exciting. Expressed, which you dont find els we dont hold back. We dont hold back. Were to free say how decisions that are taken here affect all around the country i only on gb news the peoples channel only on gb news the peoples channel, britains news channel tired of the usual focus tested pre prepared westminster run around. Well, so am i. 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Every night on gb news, the peoples channel, britains news channel. Its 5 am. Here on gb news is a crucial Election Year, started here tonight in 2020 for the people decide, which generally victoria, also known as jane kitchen labour party. As jane kitchen labour party. 13,844 votes. Labour have won the double in the last hour, it was announced that the party have gained wellingborough from the conservative party. It followed victory in kingswood. Damian egan will be sworn in as one of two new labour mps. He spoke to us earlier but now id like, id like to think that we won the election on our own back by working hard and getting a good message out there to the voters of kingswood , one labour mp said of kingswood, one labour mp said it will rock the tories. It will rock the tories. Were going to come up with something really seismic today, which i suspect will send shockwaves through the conservative party its a night of reflection for the conservative party why are we not inspiring conservatives to turn out and vote this hour . Well bring you reaction and analysis from our political ednon analysis from our Political Editor, christopher hope. Editor, christopher hope. Tories suffer a double by election defeat as reform uk surges a bad week for keir starmer ends well. Starmer ends well. Here on gb news news. Britains election channel. Weve brought you up to date with the latest from the by elections throughout the night. Tonight, the conservative party made history. Its the first time a government has suffered ten by election defeats in parliament. Defeat in wellingborough was the second largest swing from the tories to labour since the second world war. Well, lets cross straight to christopher hope, gb news, Political Editor , whos in Political Editor, whos in northamptonshire, where the wellingborough recount took place. Christopher, this was an place. Christopher, this was an astonishing result. Morning, tom. Yeah, i mean, look at the way the numbers just look at the way the numbers just look at the in politics as you and i know is all about counting and i know is all about counting an 18,000 majority here in wellingborough overturned with the second biggest, uh , swing um the second biggest, uh, swing um since well ever so. Well the biggest was ever. It was in derby in 1994. So a huge number here. Peter bone has gone. Jen kitchen is now the mp for wellingborough. Uh, earlier you heard the result about two hours going kingswood. And uh again going kingswood. And uh again a huge swing towards the tory party 11. 5 swing towards to towards the labour party. Forgive me as the tories are pushed out. Theyre a very difficult week for sir keir starmer. In difficult week for sir keir starmer. In fact a difficult difficult week for sir keir starmer. In fact a difficult two starmer. In fact a difficult two weeks with a reversals last week over the green policy. This week, the ugly face of anti terror ism rising again in the party. And yet, despite those issues in the party, which are big ones nationally, the party has done very well in both these by elections and momentum continues towards labour in a crucial Election Year for the tory party a difficult, difficult result here. Uh, rishi sunak didnt campaign in either seat. These were by elections which the party didnt want in kingswood, forced because the mp left Parliament Early in a seat which was going to be abolished anyway in the forthcoming election. And in wellingborough, peter bone had his issues in peter bone had his own issues in parliament. Know about those. Peter bone had his own issues in parwas ent. Know about those. Peter bone had his own issues in parwas forced know about those. Peter bone had his own issues in parwas forced out ow about those. Peter bone had his own issues in parwas forced out essentiallyrose. Peter bone had his own issues in parwas forced out essentially ase. He was forced out essentially as an. So both by elections were an mp. So both by elections were an mp. So both by elections were an embarrassment to the tory party. And these results are doubly embarrassing for the pm, promising that the conservative party didnt send a cabinet. Ministers didnt send the Prime Minister almost felt like it gave up at the start of the campaign in. Yeah, thats right. And that left the door open for the reform uk party, which came third. Their numbers are extraordinary. 10. 4 of the of the vote in kingswood, 13 in wellingborough from a standing start from zero. Basically tom these seats were not contested in the 2019 general election. In the 2019 general election. The brexit party, of course, as it was then, stood down candidates. So from a standing start theyve done really well there, particularly, i think, in kingswood , because the lack of kingswood, because the lack of a of a warning of that, of that. But that by election the former mp Chris Skidmore quit about five weeks ago. And then theres five weeks ago. And then theres a by election here. The one in wellingborough was much more signposted with peter bones. Uh, issues being being around from , issues being being around from, from from suddenly the autumn. So they knew they could fight here, but the reform uk party is really is still in many ways a protest party. They swung the vote in kingswood. Had they not existed, the tories would have won kingswood if all the votes had gone back to the tory party, but not in wellingborough. And why they do well is they are a Party Without any kind of data. Tom so the labour party, the tories, the established parties have know where people have data they know where people live, reform, dont know that they turn up at these seats and they turn up at these seats and they start. They try and get people to, help them get people out to, to help them get the vote out. And look the vote out. And they look around how can we make mark around how can we make our mark locally . Why i think locally . And thats why i think 10. 4 and 13 is impressive for reform uk. Theyll get a lot of comfort from i think comfort from that. I think probably thankfully they didnt push tories into third place push the tories into third place in wellingborough , which i think in wellingborough, which i think would have been a complete seismic for the party. Seismic disaster for the party. So a crumb of comfort for the tory party. Well, christopher , hope we well, christopher, hope we know be with you know well be with you throughout day. More throughout the day. For more reaction on this story. Really appreciate your time there. From where count where the count for wellingborough took place. Well, lets now to where the lets cross now to where the count for kingswood has been taking place. Jeff moody , the taking place. Jeff moody, the southwest england reporter southwest of england reporter for gb news, is in thornbury , for gb news, is in thornbury, where that took place, and where that count took place, and jeff again, an astonishing result. And perhaps interesting that reform matched its polling rating, which was perhaps doubted by. Some doubted by. Some absolutely. I mean, its all quiet here now, tom, isnt it . This is this is the gap. When weve had the massive excitement of the results, the count, all of the results, the count, all of the results, the count, all of the drama and the mp5 around, and then suddenly everybody goes off to bed for a couple of hours before getting up to really analyse those results and really to look into it. Its only us die hard journalists that are sitting up throughout the night to bring the news to you. Well, to bring the news to you. Well, as you say, it was a pretty seismic seismic result. Although of course we did know that it was likely to go this way. But its the scale again, the its the scale again, its the scale of the swing that really is making people take notice. Well, damien egan , who has now well, damien egan, who has now been voted , has now been elected been voted, has now been elected as labours as labours latest mp, although hes not the latest now because theres been a new one since then. Ten by election defeats for the tories in the last year. So quite, quite last year. So quite, quite something. Well damien talked about the lack of hope that he felt at people in kingswood were experiencing, and thats something that i certainly experienced as i was Walking Around kingswood over the last few days and weeks. That real sense that, oh, nothings really going to change and labour were really able to, uh , to, to lock really able to, uh, to, to lock on to that. I think this whole idea of a, a decade of National Renewal , well, thats idea of a, a decade of National Renewal, well, thats something that really sort of struck a chord with voters down here. But as you say , the kingmakers in a as you say, the kingmakers in a way, really are going to be the reform party. You know, that thatis reform party. You know, that that is quite a staggering result if you think that they didnt exist a few years didnt even exist a few years ago and suddenly theyre coming in third. I mean, it is a distant third. We know that. And distant third. We know that. And Jacob Rees Mogg was saying earlier on, well, you know, this doesnt really matter. Is doesnt really matter. This is this isnt bad a result as we this isnt as bad a result as we think, but the fact that, you know, the if every reform know, if the if every reform voter had voted tory, the tories would have been in here is something quite significant , it something quite significant, it means that, you know, that tory vote, the right wing vote has been split and it will continue to be split. We feel, you know , to be split. We feel, you know, across the whole of the country as we go into the general election. So that really is the real worry , i think, for rishi real worry, i think, for rishi sunak, the fact that so many people are deserting the conservatives in their droves and theyre moving across to reform , um, um, the all eyes reform, um, um, the all eyes will now be on whether they can keep that going, whether in the next sort of six months, nine months. However long it is until the general election, whether reform will continue to sort of produce these sorts of results. Um, various , you know, in by um, in various, you know, in by elections and of in the elections and of course, in the general can general election, if they can really work their up the really work their way up the ladder. Really work their way up the ladder. Um, really work their way up the ladder. Um, and thats going to be very bad news for rishi sunak, who will be waking up this morning with two massive headaches. Imagine. Certainly. Well, jeff moody, thank you for the count for for that. Outside the count for the kingswood constituency. The kingswood constituency. Appreciate your time this morning. Now joining me on the morning. Now joining me on the panelis morning. Now joining me on the panel is Mark Littlewood, leader of popular conservatives, of the popular conservatives, and bastani , the and Aaron Bastani, the co founder of novara media. For now, this will be sending shockwaves through westminster. In fact, if parliament wasnt in recess, we would probably see a lot of worried and hushed conversations. Perhaps people conversations. Perhaps people scurrying through the to each others offices, maybe even mark people writing letters of no confidence. I guess thats possible. I mean , that i think would be i mean, that i think would be a headless chicken kind of response. Look let me try as an interesting intellectual exercise at five in the morning to put some sort of positive spin on this for the conservatives party. Very difficult to do that. But i would say you could argue that these results were baked in. I think if youd asked the conservatives to honestly say yesterday, do you think youre going to win either of these by elections . They would have said no. Uh kingswood. Although a bad defeat is not on the same sort of level of swing that weve seen elsewhere. Wellingborough was. I would imagine the was. But i would imagine the official Party Defence will be that the nature and circumstances of that by election, the incumbent conservative mp peter bowen, being disqualified and kicked out of parliament in disgrace. I out of parliament in disgrace. I think it was his partner who actually ran for the conservative party, Helen Harrison. Helen harrison so a very, very, very difficult circumstance is there for the conservative party. Thats the spin theyll put on it. But i would have thought that, um, conservatives will be, uh, whilst disappointed , broadly whilst disappointed, broadly unsurprised by these two results that doesnt mean that everythings going swimmingly. Well, of course not. But an awful lot of this would have been priced in. And for all of the highlighting of how well reforms done and they have done well, i dont want to pour cold water on their performance , but water on their performance, but they didnt in these two they didnt match in these two seats. What ukip got in those two seats in the 2015 general election , rupert low , former election, rupert low, former chairman of southampton football club, i should say rupert low. So somebody as a devout southampton fan, ive got some time for. Well, he got 10. 5, ukip got 15 there in 2015. Ben habib in wellingborough, 13 habib in wellingborough,13 credible result. But uh, ukip got 19 there in 2015. So they havent yet got to where ukip were in 2015. They may be going in that direction, but they aint yet there yet. Even if theyre on that trajectory. Well, aaron, what do you make of the idea that this was all pnced of the idea that this was all priced in . I dont really buy that. I think we saw that first result and im not meant to say this. It was quite good for the conservatives, you know, given where theyve over the last where theyve been over the last six to a year. Well it six months to a year. Well it matched polls. Yeah. But it matched the polls. Yeah. But it was also, you know, the tories coming from a really bad place in want to turn in 2023. And they want to turn a corner in an Election Year. Um but wellingborough is a disaster. I think the, the disaster. And i think the, the reform results are particularly bad youve an bad because youve had an widdicombe here. Um, Ben Widdicombe on here. Um, ben habib saying overtly , we habib there saying overtly, we want to destroy the conservative party. We dont want to be a Pressure Group. And if they start getting National Polls, 15 that my goodness, we could see the conservatives get less than 100 seats in the general election. Now look, we may be six months out from a general election. There might be a Hung Parliament, but theres very parliament, but theres a very strong possibility. We see the conservative party get the worst result in their history right now. Thats 1906. I think they got 156 seats. I think it seems quite probable theyll get less than 156 seats right now. Thats thats what were looking at. So people like to back Jeremy Corbyn 2019 worst result since 1935. Try the worst result in your partys history. See, its extraordinary for a party that has styled itself as the party of government the Natural Party of government for oldest parliamentary for the oldest parliamentary party, uh, in, in in the world, actually 1836, the tamworth manifesto , when it was founded manifesto, when it was founded by robert peel. Manifesto, when it was founded by robert peel. Uh, manifesto, when it was founded by robert peel. Uh, really by robert peel. Uh, really extraordinary stuff that were discussing. Stay with us. Were going to be back with you because we want to talk to someone representing or indeed, uh, who is supportive of the current labour party. Paul richards is a former adviser to tony blair and paul, uh, frankly, you must be delighted with these results. Well this is steady progress. Steady progress. Yes. Im never delighted , uh, yes. Im never delighted, uh, until weve actually got over the line. But i think this does show three things. One, that rishi recession was decisive in terms of peoples voting behaviours. You know, people behaviours. You know, people know whether its technical or not, that they are hurting in their bank balance. And second, that the rights as fractured and that could be a historic process where the, the bloc that is the conservative Party Fractures into its constituent bits. Um, and fractures into its constituent bits. Um, and that thirdly that labouris bits. Um, and that thirdly that labour is picking up those votes. They didnt go to the lib dems who were crushed or the greens or anybody else , um, that greens or anybody else, um, that people are voting labour, many for very time, and for the very first time, and some for the first time in many years. So those three sort of factors all came together. It vindicates starmer and it absolutely is a crisis now for the conservative. As you say, this is rishi sunak recession. If were to take that logic, would you say that the Global Financial crisis was Gordon Browns fault . Was Gordon Browns fault . Thought we were well, i thought we were talking about the by elections, not ancient history. I mean, this is how people are feeling right now. And uh, we know that people are really suffering across the process. And i think, you know, it was the economy. It was lack government was the lack of government action. It was broken promises all over the place. Um, and a sense that this government is just not delivering for people. But crucially, theyve come to laboun but crucially, theyve come to labour, you know, thats not a done deal. And ive been saying for now that the next for years now that the next election not over, not one, election is not over, not one, uh, but this is very encouraging for labour. It does suggest that the even after a pretty awful week of bad optics that people will vote labour when given the chance. It seems that keir starmer has been , for want of a better has been, for want of a better time, a very lucky general with his , uh, opponents and with his his, uh, opponents and with his timing. The fact that this was timing. The fact that this was announced to be a recession the day of the vote, the morning people went off to go and vote in these two seats. So almost obscured some of the problems of earlier in the week. But but to focus in on some of those problems there, it hasnt been entirely smooth sailing for the labour party. Indeed what we have seen is questions raised over vetting of candidates. Uh do you think that the Labour Party Needs to up its game in that area . Are there some real problems perhaps lurking beneath that 20 point poll lead . That 20 point poll lead . Well, dont forget many of this. Much of the, uh, majority this. Much of the, uh, majority parties in both of these seats would have been in the bag before the recession announced because of postal voting. So it was it is a broader process than just people waking up yesterday morning and deciding how to vote. Um on candidates. I mean, ive got weve got some brilliant candidates. If you look at the two that have been elected, solid, you elected, now only solid, you know, potential future ministers. But i mean, the archewell in rochdale does suggest that need do more. Suggest that we need to do more. Um, and the fight against anti semitism is ongoing. You know, the struggle never ends really in different ways. And so, you know, you do need to have that ongoing basis. But i mean, dont hes starmer mean, i dont think hes starmer is lucky. I mean, i dont think hes starmer is lucky. I think he put a strategy in place very ruthlessly, vigorously , whether ruthlessly, vigorously, whether you agree with it or not, you cant say it being ruthless. Um, and but its being vindicated by these, these kind of results. These, these kind of results. Speaking to some overexcited , speaking to some overexcited, uh, conservative strategy seats and supporters. It did it did seem that at the start of the week, they were sort of hoping that this, uh, that keir starmer perhaps had reached his theresa may moment where this broad big lead in the polls had started to melt and, and the sort of boring, stale , strong and stable boring, stale, strong and stable mantra that perhaps could be ascribed both to theresa may when she led by 20 points and keir starmer as he was leading, perhaps, that started to melt away a little bit. We saw one poll drop this seven points, the labour lead and there was this sense that perhaps the labour party, uh , was was oscillating party, uh, was was oscillating between positions , was was not between positions, was was not making clear decisions , was, making clear decisions, was, was, was waiting and dancing around and u turning and it had some striking similarities to that 2017 general election. That 2017 general election. I think the polls will, of course, narrow. And he talked to any of the labour strategists and people around the leaders office. They dont believe this very big polling is going to be sustained into a general election. As things get tougher and tighter. Its going to be a roller coaster. As Peter Mandelson told us earlier in the week. And so i think that that is priced in, that the polls are going to narrow the test. Of course, then is do you hold your nerve or do you like headless chickens . If it goes down to a ten point lead or whatever it might be by the time holiday comes around . So you know, we have to be ready for that. Um, but i think, you know, the results that the real results show that the real voters in real seats, given the chance to vote against this government and vote for a labour alternative, are doing so. So thats the most Important Role of all, isnt it . The real in real votes and forms , uh, real votes and forms, uh, uptick. You know, its quite significant. I think you can say , well, its only ten and 13, but thats from a standing start for a party that hasnt been around very long. And it does suggest this fracturing on the right that i described earlier, whereby this conservatives is now sort of disaggregated. Um, now sort of disaggregated. Um, and that could be historic. And that could be historic. Now, now, you advised tony blair, do you see the similarities perhaps between keir starmer and the last labour Prime Minister to actually win an election . Well, i was a special adviser in the blair and the brown government , but i wouldnt government, but i wouldnt presume to say that i offered advice to either of the Prime Ministers time. But ministers at the time. But i mean, there are similarities. It5 mean, there are similarities. Its such a different world. I mean, you talk about mean, i you know, you talk about the big swings since, uh, dudley, for example, was i was the big swings since, uh, duthey, for example, was i was the big swings since, uh, duthe dudleyample, was i was the big swings since, uh, duthe dudley by election. I was the big swings since, uh, duthe dudley by election. Iwas the big swings since, uh, duthe dudley by election. I was at the dudley by election. I was at the dudley by election. I was at those by elections in the at all those by elections in the 90s. At all those by elections in the 905. We didnt have mobile phones. We have twitter. Phones. We didnt have twitter. It done through, uh , it was all done through, uh, leaflets and bits of paper. And we had to send candidates out with mp5 for the phone box if they wanted to phone in on their on road, you know, its a on the road, you know, its a different world. Um, there different world. So, um, there are similarities in terms of the type of swing, the size of the swing, but i think were in such a changed frame that starmer is doing in his own way. Hes got his own route to power and hes obviously learning from blair, but also from attlee and from wilson. And labour has been successful, but he is going to have to do it his own way. Im afraid its just different afraid its just a different terrain. Terrain. Well, Paul Richards, former special adviser to both blair and brown governments, thank you very for joining and brown governments, thank you very forjoining us here on very much forjoining us here on gb now moments ago, our gb news. Now moments ago, our east Midlands Reporter will hollis spoke to the newly elected labour mp. Although not yet signed, sworn in as an mp. So new, uh, at least she won. She won the election, but she will be sworn in next week. Presumably uh, for wellingborough. Jen kitchen following is following her victory. This is what to say. Following her victory. This is wh. How to say. Following her victory. This is wh. How are to say. Following her victory. This is wh. How are you say. Following her victory. This is wh. How are you feeling . Do you how are you feeling . Do you think you can win here in a general election . Well, as i just said, theres a lot of try you by a lot a lot of try before you by a lot of people lending their votes and make sure they buy and i have to make sure they buy again. Be out, well be again. So well be out, well be doorknocking, well be campaigning, our campaigning, delivering on our pledges. You very much. Pledges. Thank you very much. Well, that jen kitchen, pledges. Thank you very much. Labourrat jen kitchen, pledges. Thank you very much. Labour party jen kitchen, pledges. Thank you very much. Labour party jen kitcrwho the Labour Party Candidate who has won, course, in has won, of course, in wellingborough, a sensation win a swing of 28. 5, 46 of the vote to the conservatives, 25, overturning a majority of. Of overturning a majority of. Of 18,540 votes. Well goodness me, shall we digest some of that with our panel of course, we still have Mark Littlewood, Aaron Bastani and james crouch has joined us from the, uh, from no, from , uh, remind me no, from, uh, remind me a pinneyum. Its been a long five hours. It has been, uh, the other one, james. Um, this this wellingborough was was much, much bigger than polls suggested. Uh, yes. Polls suggested. Uh, yes. But i think actually, if youre looking at the National Opinion polls, youd probably be pretty unsurprised at both of these results. I think the general pattern we get is that the conservative government is just as unpopular as it has ever been. Um, you find generally that the conservatives are , well, for the conservatives are, well, for every two votes they lose, one is going to the labour party. One is going somewhere else most likely to reform. Um, and the likely to reform. Um, and the third sign is that theres is no sign of that really being undone at any point before the general election. There doesnt seem to be any sign that thats not going to be the case by the time we get to november. You know, its interesting. Aaron bastani, this seems like its a its a romp home for laboun its a its a romp home for labour. I mean, very sort of on this course. This is perhaps a bigger victory than blair i think. So i think right now, you know, john major got i think, um, 31 in 1997. If sunak gets 31 in the next general election, i think he could probably say, actually, look, guys, turned it around. Guys, hes turned it around. Ive too here. Ive not done too badly here. Uh, know, my uh, you know, i wheres my knighthood . So a really and knighthood . So its a really and look, you had Paul Richards there doing expectation management thats his job. Management and thats his job. I understand but its it understand that, but its it might not tighten. Thats the thing. Right now. It could be a 100 majority for labour. Sure it could tighten, but it could also be for labour. There so be 200 for labour. There are so many parts and so much is many moving parts and so much is going labour on the going right for labour on the lib on the snp, on reform. Lib dems, on the snp, on reform. Um, think it could be very bad. It could widen. This is this is a point. Why do we have this sort of natural assumption that the polls have to narrow the closer get a vote . That closer we get to a vote . That seems to be sure. Happened seems to be sure. Its happened in past, but past in the past, but past performance is not a reliable indicator of how will go indicator of how things will go in the future. No, right, i agree no, thats right, i agree with and i, i actually with that. And i, i actually think range possible think the range of possible outcomes general Election Outcomes in the general election is. Uh, obviously the is enormous. Uh, obviously the labour party is well ahead. And if you had to bet your life on it, you would say keir starmer will the Prime Minister. Will be the next Prime Minister. And majority, clearly and with a majority, clearly that the median point that would be the median point for any better. But the for any rational better. But the range of outcomes are colossal. You imagine, certainly, if you could imagine, certainly, if this repeated a national this was repeated on a National Scale in a general election, labour absolutely romp home and the reduced to the conservatives are reduced to a by elections dont a rump. But by elections dont tend to indicate that exactly how a general election will go. Theyre more about a trend, but they tend to be more extreme. So i think the range of possible outcomes are huge. What the outcomes are huge. What the conservative party be conservative party will be looking this firstly , looking at is this firstly, whats rishi sunak message going to be . And weve got a taste of that, of course, on gb news with his speaking to floating voters in darlington and what hes going to lay down and you can argue about whether this will have traction or not, but it might be attracted to reform uk voters is hes going to channel ben habib, the reform uk candidate from wellingborough, who said anyone who wants keir starmer to be Prime Minister must be mad. Those were ben habibs words. Well, sunak will point out, if you dont want keir starmer to be Prime Minister, by all means vote reform in a by election. But youre only chance in a general election is to vote conservative, at least to trim his and then, of his majority. And then, of course, that key course, i think that the key thing were seeing some thing and were seeing some interesting news interesting breaking news on this the course of the this over the course of the evening the early hours, evening and the early hours, what the tories be able to what will the tories be able to do budget in march . And do in the budget in march . And and sort of initial thing and the sort of initial thing was, oh, we might cut income tax by tuppence or something. Uh its now being reported. Perhaps hunt doesnt have fiscal hunt doesnt have the fiscal headroom that. I think if headroom for that. I think if the tories cant get taxes down in the budget, then their problem the problem for the problem, the problem for the party becomes considerably greater. Those are the two greater. So those are the two things id look at. Does the Prime Minister, than Prime Minister, rather than running pledges, running on his five pledges, start running on a stop . Starmer, kind of, uh, Campaign Slogan . And can the chancellor slogan . And can the chancellor do anything to lower the tax burden . Well, lets raise that question with our pollster, james crouch. Is that an effective message to say , uh, if effective message to say, uh, if its if you dont want starmer, vote for me . And frankly, has starmer done enough to sort of detoxify him, to make him so bonng detoxify him, to make him so boring that that doesnt become a particularly scary prospect . Um, well, i think lets i guess almost lets start with one of the, i guess , the two big one of the, i guess, the two big issues that the conservative party has, because i think matt, matt goodwin touched it matt goodwin touched on it earlier is theyre earlier on, is that theyre fighting loads flanks at fighting on loads of flanks at the time. So on hand the same time. So on one hand theres the economy. And the theres the economy. And the problem thats causing with problem that thats causing with voters going straight to labour on the other hand, theyve got the immigration problem, the in the immigration problem, even um, which is driving voters to reform. Now when we test it, their credibility is so shot on immigration. I would be absolutely amazed if there is anything they could do between now and november that would get them back on an even keel on that front. Theoretically there is for them to actually do is scope for them to actually do something economy and something on the economy and then you get bad news, like the technical recession that suddenly robs jeremy hunt of whatever rabbit trick that might get him one step further along that its the best thing they might have. But unless he can find something, its going to be what the fourth reboot of the conservative partys attempt to get re elected. Thats going to fall a bit flat. And aaron, there have been so many reboots. Weve had what how many reboots. Weve had what how many versions of rishi sunak have we seen . Weve had the anti net zero or at least rowing back on net zero rishi sunak weve had the change candidate, uh, rishi sunak, weve had the bnng uh, rishi sunak, weve had the bring rishi bring back David Cameron, rishi sunak , weve had the im more sunak, weve had the im more suella than suella. Rishi sunak stop the boats. Then we had the im sacking suella, rishi said. Im sacking suella, rishi said. Im just running out of fingers im sacking suella, rishi said. Insortt running out of fingers im sacking suella, rishi said. In sort ofunning out of fingers im sacking suella, rishi said. In sort of count| out of fingers im sacking suella, rishi said. In sort of count allt of fingers im sacking suella, rishi said. In sort of count all off fingers im sacking suella, rishi said. In sort of count all of these;rs to sort of count all of these relaunches yeah, its like relaunches on. Yeah, its like a windows you its windows update, you know, its sort never ending with the sort of never ending with the sunak reboots. Look, i think there are some things does. Clearly things he does. Hes clearly a very man. You i had very clever man. You know, i had the pleasure being asked by, the pleasure of being asked by, uh, news to be in darlington uh, gb news to be in darlington to watch the debate on monday. Hes clever man, very hes a very clever man, very astute there some basic astute. But there are some basic things. And i just think i dont get it. He talks in a monotone voice. He uses many words. Voice. He uses too many words. He doesnt emote enough when he does. Its very impressive. Hes very sweet. Hes very affable. So Little Things like that. And i think you are in a fight for your life. If you need to pull your life. If you need to pull up your sleeves. But this is up your sleeves. But this is somebody who is used to silk stockings , im afraid. And i stockings, im afraid. And i dont think hes had to do that in his life. Are going to in his life. You are going to have to take off the gloves and really fight for this. And hes not doing it. Yet he might have worked and yet he might have worked more for example, david more than, for example, David Cameron uh rishi Sunak Cameron did. Uh rishi sunak worked mothers pharmacy worked in his mothers pharmacy as got a scholarship to a as a kid, got a scholarship to a good david good school. Nice. David cameron, even a cameron, perhaps even more of a silver spoon his mouth. But silver spoon in his mouth. But when came to the 15 election, when it came to the 15 election, he there was a fire in he really. There was a fire in him. He said having a go, taking a hunt that pumps me up there was that was that. That was was that that was that. That was the change moment the sort of change moment in that campaign. Mark uh, are that 15 campaign. Mark uh, are we going to see some fire in sunaks belly . I agree with aaron. Uh, well, i agree with aaron. I think i thats the challenge for rishi sunak. Look lets be clear. His rough personality proposition was the adults are back in the room. Im proposition was the adults are back in the room. Im a proposition was the adults are back in the room. Im a safe back in the room. Im a safe pair of hands. You can trust me a bit. Like you might trust an Old Fashioned bank manager and im across every spreadsheet i could possibly be across. Peace and serenity has returned to uk politics, right . Essentially, that was his pitch. But i agree that was his pitch. But i agree hes going to have to fight rather than that. And rather harder than that. And i think we dont yet know how well or badly hell do that. I actually thought performance actually thought his performance in was pretty in darlington was was pretty good, mean, didnt good, actually. I mean, didnt knock out park, but it knock it out of the park, but it was it well, above average. Hes former he does best in those formats. Yeah, probably best yeah, he probably does best in formats. But you know in those formats. But you know what . Really seen him what . We havent really seen him as a National Campaigner okay. He and lost a he fought and lost a conservative leadership election. He was virtually invisible brexit invisible in the Brexit Referendum Campaign even though he side. Okay. He was on the leave side. Okay. He was much more junior politician then. Yeah so just politician then. Yeah so we just havent hes like. If havent seen what hes like. If hes to his sleeves up hes able to roll his sleeves up in heat of a general in the heat of a general election, i think that kind of boots on that the jurys out. Boots on that the jurys out. Yeah, yeah. No, its very hard to see how things substantially change. And i and i do just think that perhaps now is the moment to pop that media bubble , that all that media bubble, that all things will inevitably get tighter. Oh, theres no possible way the conservatives will go below 150 seats. I mean that the idea that these things are sort of received wisdom that they must happen. Its nonsense. And the result in wellingborough says that its nonsense. Can i Say Something which probably will upset many people , probably will upset many people, uh, which is that with uh, watching, which is that with liz truss there was a proposition there, which is well take radical action tax cuts. Well go in a direction which can potentially save whats left of our mandate. From whats left of our mandate. From 2019, she was ditched. She was ditched because the bank of england and right now the tories want to do the exact same thing. Well there we go. So much more to discuss, so more to more to discuss, so much more to come. Again, that overnight come. And again, that overnight double conservative double blow for the conservative party labour gains boast wellingborough and both wellingborough and both wellingborough and both wellingborough and kingswood. More analysis to come. Dont go anywhere welcome back. This is gb news. Britains election channel. Labour have won the two by elections in wellingborough and in kingswood in a double blow to the conservative party, christopher hope, gb news Political Editor, is in northamptonshire for the wellingborough count. Wellingborough count. Yes, tom. Thats right. A double by election defeat for rishi sunak. Um, big wins for rishi sunak. Um, big wins for keir. Keir starmer, both in kingswood, near bristol and in wellingborough. Here in northamptonshire, a complete disaster, really for rishi sunak. It5 disaster, really for rishi sunak. Its been a difficult two weeks for sir keir starmer, but labour party has done really well and despite all of those attempts at projecting National Woes over issues of green policy spending for labour, and then also the ugly face of anti semitism , uh, theres still anti semitism, uh, theres still labour marches on with the second biggest swing ever here in wellingborough , and a large in wellingborough, and a large swing also in kingswood and really in kingswood of course, the reform uk party had that not existed, had those votes stayed with the tories, the tories would have won that seat. Um in would have won that seat. Um in wellingborough. Not the case at all. Swing swing here is so all. The swing swing here is so great that is no crumb of great that there is no crumb of comfort richard sunak swing. Well, uh, chris hope, thank you very much for bringing us that live. From where uh, that live. From where the, uh, wellingborough counts took place. Moody , gb news place. Jeff moody, gb news reporter, is in thornbury , which reporter, is in thornbury, which is where the count for kingswood has taken place. Jeff uh, its been quite a night. It really has been quite a night. And although the nights nearly over, the drama isnt because, of course, everyones now getting a few hours of much needed rest. But then tomorrow, needed rest. But then tomorrow, thats when were expected to see people gathering in kingswood to celebrate or commiserate , depending on your commiserate, depending on your point of view. We dont know whether were going to get a visit from sir keir starmer or the by elections that ive covered recently have all gone to the liberal democrats, who, of course, lost their deposit here. And course, when the here. And of course, when the liberal democrat s a seat, liberal democrat 5 win a seat, sir ed davey produces this amazing , um, sir ed davey produces this amazing, um, uh, sir ed davey produces this amazing , um, uh, sideshow amazing, um, uh, sideshow doesnt he . This big stunt. So none of that for us to enjoy today. But there certainly will be a lot of analysis going on throughout the day. And theres plenty to analyse here, isnt there . Um, the role of reform , there . Um, the role of reform, um, is something thats been extremely interesting here. If reform and the tories had all merged together, if reform hadnt merged together, if reform hadnt put up a candidate, say , hadnt put up a candidate, say, and therefore splitting the right wing vote, then this result wouldnt have happened. Well damian eagan, who has now won the seat, has said this morning that the result was very much about the cost of living. Much about the cost of living. Uh, he was talking about the lack of hope that people have down here in kingswood and that really has been a, a shadowed by sir keir starmer, who was talking again about this decade of National Renewal. That really does seem to have struck a chord down here in kingswood. Well, plenty of reaction, plenty of analysis throughout the day here on gb news. Brilliant. Well be with you all the way, jeff. Thank you very much down there in kingswood now. Its been one kingswood now. Its been one busy night with two by elections which started with one big labour win. Labour win. Damian jeans ian, commonly known as damian egan , labour known as damian egan, labour party. 11,170. Party. 11,170. That was an eventful. Thousand that was an eventful. Thousand 176. Well, that was the result in kings wood. Damian egan, the Labour Party Candidate with 11,151 votes, accounting. For 11,151 votes, accounting. For 45 of the vote. Sam bromley , 45 of the vote. Sam bromley, the conservative, came in with over 8000 votes, or 35, and interestingly, rupert lowe, the reform uk candidate, came in. Reform uk candidate, came in. With 2578 votes over 10, reaching double digits for the first time in reform uk by election history. The lib dems , ukip and the green party dems, ukip and the green party all lost their deposits. Now all lost their deposits. Now heres what damian, the victorious Labour Party Candidate, told me a little bit earlier nigel farage and his party to thank for your win. I party to thank for your win. I havent seen all the results through so i got the headline so ill crack the figures. But no, i think when were talking to people, we talked about the issues that people were raising as top ones with us was, um, nhs cost of living and policing. But, you know, policing. But, you know, certainly other issues as well were coming up. But um, but no, id like, id like to think that we won the election on our own back by working hard and getting a good message out there to, to the voters of kingswood that was damian egan, the victorious Labour Party Candidate. But we had to wait until just after 4 am. For, uh, wellingborough to be announced. Labours jen kitchen was announced as the winner. There kitchen chernihiv victoria, also known as jane kitchen labour party. 13,844 votes. Labour party. 13,844 votes. And here are those wellingborough results. Jen kitchen, the Labour Party Candidate with almost 14,000 votes, 13,844 and 46 of the vote. Helen harrison, the conservative Party Candidate. Conservative Party Candidate. Got 7408, or 25 of the vote, and ben habib, the reform uk candidate. 3919, equivalent to candidate. 3919, equivalent to 13. The lib dems and the greens lost their deposits. I should say that in kingswood, the greens managed to hold on to their deposits, but we did catch up with jen kitchen after her victory. Victory. I am delighted to be stood here as the newly elected labour mp for wellingborough. I am mp for wellingborough. I am honoured that local people have placed their trust in me and the labour party under keir starmer. The labour shadow minister, toby perkins , has been a big figure perkins, has been a big figure in the campaign , but he had this in the campaign, but he had this to say before the results were actually confirmed. Actually confirmed. Perkins is the labour party looking confident of winning this seat. This seat. Well, i think we are increasingly optimistic. Weve had a great day. Our candidates had a great day. Our candidates been really positively received on the doorsteps. Weve had a, uh, incredibly positive campaign, i think right the way through and so, you know, whilst we dont like to do a lap of honour until the race is run, were feeling increasingly hopeful that were going to come up with something really seismic today, which i suspect will send shockwaves through the conservative party and will give us real cause for optimism. Well once both those labour victories were confirmed, toby perkins told our reporter will hollis, this well, wow. You know what a result. I think of all the elections in our aisles long history. This is the second biggest, uh, swing thats ever been so we were feeling increasingly upbeat as the campaign went on, but i never saw that sort of victory coming. I mean, were just blown away. I mean, were just blown away. Quite a relieved toby perkins there, but our very own nigel farage had this to say on the performance from the liberal democrats tonight. Democrats tonight. Stand out to me is the liberal democrats have lost deposits in both of these seats. Now you would have thought with the conservatives under attack from labour in the old red wall, you would have thought that in surrey and those kind of southern home counties, this would have been the lib dems, big election they are making in fact, far from any impact theyve been going backwards. Thats also , i think, worthy of thats also, i think, worthy of note. Note. Now, ben habib, who stood as the candidate for reform uk in wellingborough, shared his reflections with us after his defeat. Your final word . How do you end this night with a smile on your face . Absolutely. Why would i not smile . Think about the trajectory. Were on 5. Three months ago, 13 tonight. Extra late that well be at 100 by the time we get to the general election. Election. A little bit of exaggeration. There perhaps from a pretty happy ben habib. But finally, heres what nigel farage said about his much touted potential return to frontline politics. You know, i, i am enjoying my life at gb news. Im the honorary president of reform. I honorary president of reform. I have no executive role in the party. Um everyone speculates. Well, i come back as leader, i might do i might not, i dont know, um , my big fear would be know, um, my big fear would be to come back and get 5 million votes in three seats if i see a really historic opportunity to go in and to win a large number of seats and to replace the conservative party, well, i ill probably do it. Well, lets digest all of this and more importantly , learn this and more importantly, learn what is potentially to come. What is the aftershock of these seismic results . Mark littlewood seismic results . Mark littlewood is the leader of the popular conservatives group, and Aaron Bastani is the co founder of novara media. Still with us too, is james crouch of opinium. The pollsters , uh, Mark Littlewood. Pollsters, uh, Mark Littlewood. This is nothing short of a disaster for rishi sunak. Well, theyre pretty bad results. I mean, i suppose that the nerdy statistical bit we havent dug into yet is that the wellingborough result is on a par with other monumental by election losses. The kingswood result, whilst a defeat , i mean, the swing kingswood result, whilst a defeat, i mean, the swing in kingswood was only about half of that in wellingborough , a little that in wellingborough, a little more than half. Im really intrigued to work out what the differences were there. The conservatives official line, i think, will be that the wellingborough by election was held under particularly difficult circumstances, with all the scandal over peter bowen and therefore the kingswood result is a better indication of where the real swing is across the country. Because wellingborough was such difficult territory. But i guess difficult territory. But i guess its a question forjames, the its a question for james, the pollster there. Why would why would we see such to such remarkable differences , both remarkable differences, both with big swings to labour . But one monumental and one is one is monumental and one is just sort average ish in just sort of average ish in by election terms. By election terms. Um, well, i do think that the general pattern, as i say, you can still spot so with the conservative vote evaporating to different degrees , half of it different degrees, half of it going to labour, half of it going to labour, half of it going to labour, half of it going to reform , um, i think i going to reform, um, i think i actually want to put a caveat slightly on that reform number, especially in kingswood. No party owns its own voters. So party owns its own voters. So even if reform hadnt stood , even if reform hadnt stood, these people are pretty unhappy with the conservatives. The conservatives wouldnt have won. Yes. They probably would not have won. Kingswood they probably yes. Found some probably yes. Or found some other their other outlet for their dissatisfaction. But think dissatisfaction. Um, but i think that it might come down to what everyone has said, which is that Helen Harrison probably wasnt actually seen that much on the campaign by comparison to laboun campaign by comparison to labour, throwing everything at that and being quite happy to give the tories that bloody nose. So this is interesting. This is perhaps a local factor in wellingborough compounds the problem for the conservative party in kingswood. We get a result much closer to, well , result much closer to, well, pretty much bang on where National Polling is still a 16. 4 swing against the conservative party. What sort of numbers are we looking at nationally . If that was the result across the board . Board . Well, it would definitely be a labour landslide of some description. Ian. Um, i mean, description. Ian. Um, i mean, once again, so much of it depends on what happens in scotland. Um, so we really just cant extrapolate these numbers into , into a labour win. But into, into a labour win. But well, the scale of the labour win, but at least we all know that broadly speaking , what the that broadly speaking, what the National Opinion polls are telling us is probably about. Right. And for the first time, were also getting that with reform. Um, so thats the first time were getting that. I think with labour, we managed to get there by the third or fourth record breaker. But with reform, were there. Were now finally there. Yeah. Aaron bastani, what do yeah. Aaron bastani, what do you of this that actually yeah. Aaron bastani, what do you polls of this that actually yeah. Aaron bastani, what do you polls of pretty at actually yeah. Aaron bastani, what do you polls of pretty spot tually yeah. Aaron bastani, what do you polls of pretty spot on. Ly the polls are pretty spot on. There have been lots of people saying we dont believe the polls always get it wrong, but actually in kingswood, actually tonight in kingswood, weve a pretty much weve seen a pretty much exactly. If i were to put any opinion poll in the last week into a sort of generate me a result sort of algorithm , result sort of algorithm, kingswood is what id get. Yeah. And also look, in 2019, the mrp polls, which are the really expensive huge data sets , uh, expensive huge data sets, uh, they were spot on 2017. They had their weighting wrong. Trump, clinton in 2016. Look its a two horse race. Things can happen. Well they got they got the numbers pretty pretty much right. Well not quite just um, clinton was a lot less efficient with where her vote was precisely. But you remember these things, you know, Huffington Post on the day said that trump has a 3 chance of winning. And of wins. But in of course, he wins. But in recent years, thats changed somewhat. I would say is, somewhat. What i would say is, look, one look, the tories in one by election actually by election have actually fought. That was an uxbridge. They and find it so they won. Um, and i find it so strange theyre just going down without know. Okay, without a fight, you know. Okay, you might not it might not you might not win. It might not look great. Youre sending cabinet ministers up there, but my do something. Try my god, do something. Try something. You know , if it something. You know, if it doesnt work, try Something Different. Thats what you do in different. Thats what you do in sports. Thats what you do in business. And i think maybe a lot these guys at the top of lot of these guys at the top of the conservative party right now, theyve just not been in this situation theyve this situation before. Theyve not situation. 2017 not been in the situation. 2017 was competitive, but only was very competitive, but only in last week and a half. In the last week and a half. Theres not been an this far out from a general election to go back. You have to go back a decade. You back. 2015 was a you have to go back. 2015 was a tight election that was a that was a big fight. But very was a big fight. But a very different fight in some ways. But then, 2015, people but even then, 2015, people were thinking might 20 majority. A lot of these tory mps right now are going to lose their seats. Theyre going have to seats. Theyre going to have to find another job. And i dont find anotherjob. And i dont understand them understand why more of them dont bit more oomph and dont have a bit more oomph and a bit more, you know, front about, do sort about, okay, how do we sort this . About, okay, how do we sort thiswell, this exactly why well, isnt this exactly why we the kingswood by election we had the kingswood by election this was a tory who decided, we had the kingswood by election this knowa tory who decided, we had the kingswood by election this know what, who decided, we had the kingswood by election this know what, perhaps decided, we had the kingswood by election thisknow what, perhaps id ided, we had the kingswood by election thisknow what, perhaps id be d, you know what, perhaps id be better off not waiting for the election having competition election and having competition from colleagues from hundreds of my colleagues in former mp job market. I in the former mp job market. I want get ahead of them by ten want to get ahead of them by ten months and go and get a job in the former mp job market when theres a lot less competition. I mean, thats why this by election thats by election and i suppose thats why frustrating that why its so frustrating that this took place. This by election took place. Obviously wellingborough a recall petition, its different, but you make to but mark, what do you make to that . Tories didnt that point . The tories didnt try. Why have given up . Try. Why have they given up . Well the rationale would go Something Like this. And im not saying its the smartest rationale, but there is a thread of coherent strategy here, which is at the outset, the conservative party expected to lose both of these by elections and badly. And that then being the case, do not associate your top people like the leader of the party and the Prime Minister, with what you see to be an inevitable defeat. However, that said, although i think certain degree think theres a certain degree of im olivier of coherence there, im olivier award with aaron. We were saying, a little earlier in saying, uh, a little earlier in the tom, that rishi sunak the show, tom, that rishi sunak for the general election is going have to his going to have to roll up his sleeves, get out there, talk to ordinary people, see how he can come would have come across. This would have been a good test bed for trying. That wouldnt have meant that been a good test bed for trying. Tha conservativesye meant that been a good test bed for trying. Tha conservatives were ant that been a good test bed for trying. Tha conservatives were ant th. To the conservatives were going to win two by win either of the two by elections, its at least a elections, but its at least a dry run. So going to aaron, sports analogy, you know why not play sports analogy, you know why not play pre season friendly. Why . Play a pre season friendly. Why . You back until you know why hold back until just events roll on to just the big events roll on to the pitch, test it, see how you go. Not just your messages. Psychologically do feel . Psychologically how do you feel . How deal with an awkward how do you deal with an awkward voter an awkward voter who ask you an awkward question . Would thought voter who ask you an awkward quesrishi would thought voter who ask you an awkward quesrishi sunak uld thought voter who ask you an awkward quesrishi sunak would thought voter who ask you an awkward quesrishi sunak would wantought that rishi sunak would want a few on that before we few dry runs on that before we come to an election, i get a sense that theyre all very tired, but lets the tired, but lets get the thoughts of Paul Richards, the former labour adviser, former labour special adviser, and do you think it is and paul, why do you think it is that rishi sunak chose that rishi sunak simply chose not and not not to go to kingswood and not to go to wellingborough, that he didnt send shadow his im didnt send his shadow his im getting myself there, getting ahead of myself there, that didnt cabinet that he didnt send his cabinet ministers to seats. Ministers to these seats. Im getting a really no, im getting a really sneaking suspicion that rishi sunaks just not very good at politics. I dont know about you. I mean , i just dont think you. I mean, i just dont think hes good at this stuff. And we do get Prime Minister sometimes that are in the highest office but just cant quite cut it. That are in the highest office but just cant quite cut it. Um, and soitis but just cant quite cut it. Um, and so it is such a sort of and its so it is such a sort of tone deaf not to sign up. Beau tone deaf not to sign up. Beau biden even if you think you might do badly, you can be seen to be a fighter, be engaged and support your candidates. Whoever they may be. Just. Its just a lack of a typekit. Hes just not good at it. Good at it. So you need to get out onto his soapbox like john major did in 1992. Now there are there arent many parallels we can draw between, uh, 2024 and 1992, but perhaps shapps a Prime Minister having a bit of fight , minister having a bit of fight, not wanting to be seen as a dry technocrat, wanting to get out there on the streets and talk to real people. Is that what rishi sunak needs to do . Real people. Is that what rishi surwell, eds to do . Real people. Is that what rishi surwell, thats do . Real people. Is that what rishi surwell, thats a o . Real people. Is that what rishi surwell, thats a harder ask for well, thats a harder ask for him because of his enormous wealth of privilege and background , and play this boy background, and play this boy from britain card and talk about the badinage on the soapbox back in 92. And i remember again involved in that campaign and it blindsided labour. You know, labours campaign was very slick with hencote and rallies and whatnot. But this guy with the, uh, suddenly trump i just think, no pun intended. No pun intended. Oh, sorry. Having a little bit of trouble, uh, hearing you there, paul, were going to pause that and return to our panel because aaron, there is this idea and weve seen it in a few of the papers that rishi sunakis few of the papers that rishi sunak is going to spend every monday, thursday and friday getting out there in the country talking to people three days a week, from now to week, going on tour from now to the election is that the right the election. Is that the right call . Call . Well, theory, its one well, in theory, its one thing to say it. Its another thing to say it. Its another thing to say it. Its another thing to execute it. You know, i agree with what was just agree with what paul was just saying. There even the image of a fighter is going to win you a couple of points in opinion polls, okay . Its not going to send you back to 10 downing street, but its something, you know, we have cultural memes of, you know, the titanic sinking, but these guys were still playing the music. Now we talk about the titanic as obviously it its shorthand it was a its a, its shorthand for failure and catastrophe. But the somebody having the the idea of somebody having the bravery to fight on, to carry on, to try and do business as usual. Well, weve got the phrase go down fighting. Its a more noble down fighting. Its a more noble thing to do than just to sort of give up. That resonates with everyone, you know, even in 2017, after 2017, theresa may was destroyed. She very good prime she wasnt a very good Prime Minister she was minister even when she was awful. People said shes still sticking at good for her. Sticking at it, good for her. And i dont get it. I dont get im repeating myself, but i dont get it with the man because hes very clever. Hes got Dominic Cummings apparently advising dominic advising him and Dominic Cummings, he would cummings, who deny that he would deny hes apparently deny that, but hes apparently advising been advising him and hes only been involved successful political involved in successful political campaigns, so i cant campaigns, really. So i cant make head or tail of it. But, you know, maybe, maybe theyre playing five d chess and i dont know, hang on, james crouch, is this the case that no matter this not the case that no matter who was in charge of the country right now, Interest Rates would be high as they are in america, as they are in the eu, as they are right across the world or the developed world. Uh, inflation would have been high year. The price level, high last year. The price level, uh, would be materially uh, now would be materially higher was years higher than it was two years ago. Is in every major ago. As it is in every major developed country. Fundamentally, seeing fundamentally, were seeing Justin Trudeau 20 points behind his opposition. Were seeing the his opposition. Were seeing the Martin Schulz in germany, 20 points behind his opposition. Points behind his opposition. Were seeing trump despite having federal indictments. Uh looking like hes going to beat biden. Frankly, isnt it just biden. Frankly, isnt it just the case if youre in government right now, no matter which political flavour you come from , political flavour you come from, youre screwed. Well, im not necessarily going to say that screwed, but it definitely theres massive structural problems facing the conservative and then conservative party and then being in government at the moment. But do think the real moment. But i do think the real problem , that sunak problem is, is that rishi sunak really struggles to articulate in one sentence why i vote for a conservative government under rishi sunak. He really struggles to do it. And the problem is that theyve actually gone down this route of fighting back. But the problem is its a constant well, how do we roll for labour in the headlines this week . And actually that doesnt really win votes. And all thats really functioned in doing is saying, well, we thought rishi was this likeable guy who had a plan for government. All it does is make him look like this. Actually quite dislikeable man trying just to wrong foot the other guy, but not actually governing the and thats what the country. And thats what theyve as the fighting theyve taken as the fighting spirit. And thats not what it spirit. And thats not what it should it should do should be. It should be. Why do you to govern the country you want to govern the country and you that you and why do you care that you might be the guy doing that might not be the guy doing that in a year . Well, james crouch, Aaron Bastani, littlewood, and bastani, Mark Littlewood, and indeed all them, paul indeed before all of them, Paul Richards thank you richards as well. I thank you for participation in what for your participation in what has been an exciting and exhilarating Election Night here on gb news. To remind you, didnt kitchen, the Labour Party Candidate, has won in wellingborough , and damien egan, wellingborough, and damien egan, the Labour Party Candidate , has the Labour Party Candidate, has won in kingswood, overturning enormous conservative majorities , both of them. The question now turns to rishi sunak can he can he hold his Party Together through the coming days . In the aftershocks of what has been a seismic night, aftershocks of what has been a seismic night , the night the seismic night, the night the tories suffered two by election defeats in both kingswood and in wellingborough, two losses the conservative party has now suffered more by election defeats in this parliament than any previous government since the 1960s. Meanwhile, the labour party takes a big step towards power in the upcoming general election. Also, for the first time, the reform party is matching their polling with their real world results. Its their real world results. Its all to play for and the after shocks will be intense. Away britain. This is a stunning victory for the labour party and must send a message from northamptonshire to downing street. Street. A big win for labour as the party seizes the constituent see of wellingborough, with the tories losing the most by elections now in a single parliament since. 1960. Parliament since. 1960. Tory suffered a double by election defeat. A bad night by election defeat. A bad night for rishi sunak. By election defeat. A bad night for rishi sunak. While reform uk for rishi sunak. While reform uk has was ways to be optimistic