Three days to go some races are too close to call making a republican wave far from certain but gop pollster whit ayers is starting to see some movement. He joins me now from washington. Great to see you again. Paul, good to be with you. So, what do you see here in the last week as these as these races move to a climax . Well, weve known for a long time that the broader environment was very conducive for republican victories. But we havent seen much hard evidence of that in the polling. Up until now. But the last week or ten days or so we started to see some shifting. And thats not unusual. When waves come in, they tend to come in late. We did bill frists senate race in 1994 against jim sasser. A week before the election he was only ahead by four points. But by thursday he was up by seven. By saturday he was up by nine. And he eventually won the race by 14 percentage points. So, we need to be watching the polls all weekend long. But as i look at the polls youre seeing i think ten senate seats that are still really close. 12 or 13 governors races that are within the margin of error or very close to that. Can you recall a year when there were so many big races that were this close . In a lot of these wave years, paul, there are a number of races that get decided by only one or two percentage points. Right. But they all tend to fall the same way. That occurred way back in 1980 when reagan was elected and it occurred in 86 when the democrats made a run back. Occurred in 94, 2006, 2010. So, its a wave is a whole lot of races get won by double digits its that a whole lot of close races fall the same way. As i see this race coming to an end youre seeing republican the going back to the obama care issue. Running a lot of ads in a lot of seats on obama care, believe it or not. Now, is this in your view a smart strategy . Because as i see it just about every antiobama care vote is already a republican vote. Whats the purpose here . The purpose here is to remind people particularly independents who may be Still Deciding what they think about obamacare about the negative consequences for their health care and their costs. Obamacare remains one of the top three issues in these Critical Senate battleground states along with the economy and National Security and isis. So, it is a safe strategy and its a smart strategy. But is it a strategy youre saying you want to get independents. Is it persuasion strategy or is this just a base turnout issue, were trying to remind republicans who say, oh, i dont care, i dont want to vote, you better get out if you want to do something about this law . Its a combination of a base strategy to remind them and a persuasion strategy for the independents who are up for grabs. Keep in mind that obamacare is a proxy for obama. Right. What people think about obama they tend to think about obamacare so its a way to reinforce their disapproval of the job the president has been doing. And do you agree that the president is really the number one issue here, number one motivator, certainly for Republican Voters . Theres no question about that, paul. The disgust with the administration, with an overall sense of incompetence of being in over their heads is the dominant issue as it frequently is in the sixth year of a president ial term. Republicans know all about that from 2006. They were on the other side of this debate. Thats right. You mentioned National Security. And we havent seen that come come center stage in an election maybe since, well, certainly from the hawkish side of the ledger since 2004, that is, working for republicans or those candidate who want to be more aggressive in providing for American Security abroad. Youve got the islamic the threat from Islamic State and youve had the ebola mishandling and Vladimir Putin on the march. Has that really been an issue that has helped some of the republican candidates . I know scott brown has used it in New Hampshire and tom tillis in New Hampshire. What have you seen . Sure, weve seen that very much that theres such disquiet about the state of the world and particularly the administrations ability to handle these unexpected events that were seeing National Security pop up in a number of races and its usually to the republicans advantage. So, what races are you looking at here in you go to tuesday, how would you advise viewers to look, which races as the bellwethers in terms of the senate . There are five Critical Senate races that are all in states that are completely in the eastern time zone. So, were going to get a pretty good indication early. Georgia, North Carolina, virginia, West Virginia, and New Hampshire. If the republicans only win one of those and theyre pretty well assured to win West Virginia, then they can still take control of the senate but its going to be a long night. If republicans win three or four of those five, its going to be a great night for the gop. Okay. Now, i know you know georgia very well and thats one of the races which is held by a republican now who is retiring saxby chambliss, so you have david purdue the republican businessman running against Michelle Nunn the daughter of sam nunn the former democratic senator there. You know that state well. How do you see that going . Because democrats have been pounding david purdue about his comments about outsourcing jobs . Its a very close race right now. Michelle nunn was ahead a couple of weeks ago but its part of republican candidates starting to do better. David purdue has started to pull ahead. The critical question is whether either candidate get over the 50 mark. If not, they go into a runoff that doesnt occur until january 6th. What do you expect . Do you think that will go to a runoff . The bet now would be that it goes to a runoff. But if you look at the states where democrats have been leading like North Carolina and New Hampshire, the lead is narrowing. Right. If you look at states where republicans have been leading, the lead is growing. The arkansas poll just came out this week showing tom cotton ahead of mark pryor by 13 points. Thanks for putting down the marker. Well check you on it and see how it goes. Coming up next with republicans just six seats shy of a takeover all eyes are on the battle for control of the u. S. Senate. Our panel takes a closer look at how some key races are shaping up in the campaigns final weekend when we come back. Cold. I took nyquil but im still stuffed up. Nyquil cold and flu liquid gels dont unstuff your nose. Really . 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Here with a look at how those contests are shaping up in the campaigns final day wall street journal columnist and Deputy Editor dan heniger and jason riley and washington columnist kim straussle. So, jason, we heard whit talk about maybe a republican wave building. Do you see that yourself or is this going to be trench warfare, turnout warfare all the way down to tuesday . I think for the latter. For it to be a wave id want to see more distance between the republican candidates and the Democratic Candidates and a lot of these races republicans are leading but not by much. Often within the margin of error so that concerns me a little bit. Daniel . Ill disagree a little bit with that, jason. I think that the democrats these are all incumbents, incumbents are hard to defeat. What struck me was how much trouble the democrats have had putting distance between them and their republican challengers. Theyve been campaigning hard since the beginning of this summer and theyve never built a lead which suggests to me that if theres going to be a republican wave which is what whit ayers suggested late in a campaign the republicans are going to start pushing out further over the weekend. Kim, lets talk about specific races because it looks like montana, south dakota, and West Virginia republicans are comfortably ahead, theyll pick up those three seats. They need six to get to 51. Tom cotton in arkansas as whit ayres suggested now getting a more comfortable lead, looks like that one may be a republican pickup. Where are the next seats most likely to pick up the states that pick up the next two to get to that 51 . I think you look down at louisiana, where Mary Landrieu is thats going to go to a runoff because its called a jungle vote and so if no one gets to 50, then theyre going to have a runoff in december. After the main election. Yes, in december. And right now theres a Third Party Candidate which means not everyone will probably get there. But if you look at cassidy who is the republican running against her, he along with, like, tom cotton in arkansas the numbers are getting pretty big in a headtohead matchup between him and Mary Landrieu, hes ahead by six or seven. That gets you that gets you one more. Where do you get the elusive 51 . Well, this is why republicans are feeling good because they feel like they have a lot of opportunities there. You look up to alaska, where dan sullivan has consistently been leading in the polls against mark begich. The one uncertainty is there is that polling is infamously difficult to do in alaska but you look at colorado and you look at iowa where cory gardner the republican in colorado and joanny ernst the republican in iowa have been leading consistently, again, all throughout october in the polls and much of september. And the uncertainty in those states is going to be whether or not the democrats vaunted ground operation is as good as they say it is. On that point, jason, Michael Bennet the democratic senator from colorado was behind in every single poll leading right up to the election in 2010. The polling was off. And he won by a single points and the democrats are saying, look, weve invested ten s of millions of dollars on turnout and youll wake up republicans wednesday morning and youll be surprised that we eked out a victories . Both 2010 and 2012 polling was off with respect to the democratic turnout and theyre counting on that to be the case again. In terms of that six or seventh seat, paul, ive looked at georgia thats a republican seat. Well, okay. Okay, im sorry. In terms of the pickup. I was talking about the republicans chances of holding that seat which i which i like because its another case where you could see a runoff that would favor the republicans. There have been something, like, five statewide runoffs in georgia and republicans have won every single one, so although that race is tight right now, i think as in louisiana youre going to see a runoff and then the republican candidate favored. I want to stress these two races in colorado and iowa, dan, because those are states that barack obama carried twice. Yeah. These are also states that where the i mean, republicans do better statewide in iowa than they have done lately in colorado and colorado its been hard to win statewide in many, many years. Why are republicans so confident about picking up that state . I think one thing they have going for them is events late in the campaign. And that is the fact that National Security has become an issue. And cory gardner in colorado has been using it against mark udall. Joanie ernst certainly has been using it in her race. Add to that the fact that the democrats have always had to deal with the reality of economic anxiety in the country, polling continues to say 65 of people think the countrys going in the wrong direction. The National Security anxiety over ebola hit them late and has put the democrats on the defensive, kind of pushed them off their game of blaming republicans for war on women, that sort of thing. So, i think that in states like colorado and iowa the republicans feel the momentum for that reason is building in their direction. And two states, kim, that the republicans have to hold if theyre going to keep the majority i think. Thats right. Kansas, pat roberts the incumbent is running against an independent greg orman and then in kentucky where Mitch Mcconnell the minority leader hopes to be majority leader is locked in a very tight race. How do you see those . Yeah. The republicans are feeling very confident about kentucky at the moment. Mitch mcconnells lead has been pretty substantial for a while now. Democrats threw a little bit of money late in the game. I think that was partly just to keep up the spirits of everyone on their side. I think the bigger concern when you talk to republicans right now is kansas where pat roberts just continues to have some difficulty getting his own Republican Base to rally around him. Theres been some controversy down there about whether or not he i mean, the fact that he didnt have a home down in the asset for a while and a hot of his core voters still are unhappy with him after a very bitter primary he fought, too. So, that has been a very neckinneck race and i think thats the one when you talk to the strategists theyre looking at most closely. Okay, well be watching it. We didnt get to North Carolina in this block or New Hampshire but those are also two very important races to watch. Okay. When we come back 2014 is shaping up to be a tough year for incumbent governors with as many as a dozen facing tight reelection fights, so who is likely to be left standing after tuesdays vote . Find out next. receptionist gunderman group. Gunderman group is growing. Getting in a groove. Growth is gratifying. Goal is to grow. Gotta get greater growth. I just talked to ups. They got expert advise, special discounts, new technologies. Like smart pick ups. Theyll only show up when you print a label and its automatic. We save time and money. Time . Money . Time and money. Awesome. Awesome awesome awesome awesome all awesome i love logistics. Dentures with toothpaste or plain water. And even though their dentures look clean, in reality theyre not. If a denture were to be put under a microscope, we can see all the bacteria that still exists on the denture, and that bacteria multiplies very rapidly. Thats why dentists recommend cleaning with polident everyday. Polidents unique micro clean formula works in just 3 minutes, killing 99. 99 of odor causing bacteria. For a cleaner, fresher, brighter denture everyday. Well, 2014 has been a rough year for sitting governors with as many as a dozen incumbents locked in very tight reelection fights including democrats in connecticut, colorado and illinois. And republicans in florida, kansas, michigan and wisconsin. So, which ones are likely to return to the Governors Mansion after tuesdays vote . Were back with dan and colin and assistant Editorial Page EditorJames Freeman also join the panel. Dan, fascinating, but there didnt seem to be a wave in the governors races, not in the polling. Incumbents on both sides vuln vulnerab vulnerable. Why is it close on both sides . Incumbents should win but theyre under pressure. The main reason is a lot of the races are in the north, massachusetts, michigan, wisconsin, even maryland. The economy is a large part of it. And i think personally i think you can blame obama here which is to say the National Economy has grown through most of these terms at best 2 . So, no matter what policies they put in place it has been difficult for the economy in those states to grow. Some have marginally but i think the sour mood of the electorate has made people want to look at, you know, just overturning the status quo in some of these gubernatorial races. Lets take the democrats first. The democratic incumbents. A couple of open seats. Massachusetts is one you mentioned. Maryland another where its a very competitive race, but you see the democratic incumbents, illinois, connecticut put big tax increases on the table. Now they seem to be paying for that as the republicans attack them for it. What is the problem for these incumbents in those states . I think you hit it. Take illinois as an example. Its not just that pat quinn has been increasing taxes, the economy is even worse than the National Economy when we look at unemployment. And the state has just massive problems that he hasnt really addressed. The big one is unfunded pension liability, so as high as the taxes are its not as high as they should be for all the government theyre buying. Colin, youre in illinois, what do you think i mean, pat quinn, the incumbent governor hes hitting bruce rahner for being another mitch romney rich guy out of touch. Rahner if you look at the economy should be further ahead than he is. Hes not ahead. Hes tied or slightly behind. Well, you know, the race here is very close theres no question about that. But the effort to raomneyize rahner hasnt been as successful as people say it is. The state is hemorrhaging jobs and people. You had both chicago newspapers endorse rauner which was rather surprising because the suntimes doesnt typically endorse candidates. I think the financial acumen thats coming from raunor is resonating with people particularly from chicago which is a typically overwhelming democratic place. Obama won here by 20 points so quinn is a weak candidate and i think that i think youre going to see some of that start to come through. Okay. Dan, lets talk about the republican governors here. Weve got several who are vulnerable. No question about it. In pennsylvania tom corbett the incumbent it looks like hes already so far behind that they basically republican Governor Campaign committee looks like its written him off. What happened there . Well, tom corbett simply was not campaigning as an effective republican governor. I think these governors have to understand whatever they are doing they have to get their message out 24 7 like scott walker has done in wisconsin. You have to defend yourself. And maybe rick scott in florida has made that mistake as well. You have to be in front of the voters all the time in the media cycle that we live in these days. Sam brownback in kansas, cut taxes, tried to cut spending, should be winning but he is in a very, very tight race. Colin, lets talk about scott walker because that was so traumatic for two years. The big source of debate. They tried to recall him and he won comfortably but now hes got a tight race. Why is this race so closely this time after he won the recall comfortably . I think wisconsin is an incredibly divided state and i think the fight there is also about the economy. There were some pretty interesting news there, mary burke has really been campaigning on her private sector experience as something thats going to also help the economy there. And sort of trying to go after walker for jobs numbers which have been strong but not as strong as he predicted. Some stories came out recently that her experience as a trek bicycle executive werent as big as they were made out to be. She was something of a disaster said by the commerce secretary when she was working for the state and then also that she was fired from trek in 1993. I bet you there are not five undecided votes in all of wisconsin. It is going to come down to turnout. Everybody knows what the they think about walker pro or con. And theyll come out. It depends on whether they can get the turnout. Sam brownback in kansas has been the poster child for republican tax cuts. He has. This is one of the moments where you really learn what the politicians are for. We all think of democrats generally bigger government, republicans generally Smaller Government but hes angered a lot of republican politicians because when he said he wanted to restrain the size of government, cut the tax burden, he meant it. And theyre upset wanted more of that money to spend. And so this is really the establishment of both Political Parties going after a reform governor and i think for t taxpayers everywhere you certainly hope he hangs in there. Thank you, james. Much more to come on this special onehour edition of the journal editorial report. It was a potent weapon in the 2012 democratic elections, but is the war on Women Campaign falling flat . And the green money machine. Liberal environmentalists are spending big this election season but will it pay off on tuesday. A party . Hi. Im new ensure active clear protein drink. Clear huh . My nutritional standards are high. Im not juice or fancy water. Ive got 8 grams of protein. Twist my lid thats three times more than me. 17 vitamins and minerals. And zero fat hmmmm. You bring a lot to the party yay new ensure active clear protein. 8 grams protein. Zero fat. 17 vitamins and minerals. In delicious blueberry pomegranate and mixed fruit. Live from americas news headquarters. U. S. Marine veteran andrew tmarisi is free after eight months in a mexican jail. A mexican judge ordering the Immediate Release of the Afghanistan War veteran who suffers from ptsd. He was arrested for crossing the border with loaded guns. He said he crossed the border by mistake and had no intention of bringing weapons illegally into mexico. A tragic halloween in Southern California to report as three girls trickortreating are killed by a hitandrun driver. The victims 13 years old. Two of them are twins. Police are searching for two men from an suv that was found abandoned near the scene. Witnesses say the men fled on foot after ditching the vehicle. Ill see you at the top of the hour for americas news headquarters. Now back to the journal editorial report. Welcome back to the special ition digs of the journal editorial report. As we count down to tuesdays midterm elections. It was a potent weapon in the 2012 campaign and domes are once again relying on the war on women to give them the edge in some key races. In the closely watched Colorado Senate campaign incumbent democrat mark udall has been nicknamed mark uterus by the media for his procuss on womens reproductive issues and hes closing out the campaign awith a new ad with a bill that critics say would ban abortion and outlaw some common forms of berth control. As you are making your decision remember a bill that everybody says is a personhood bill at the federal level you are telling me its not. Cory gardner is still sponsoring the personhood bill in congress but gardner just keeps denying it. The denials even failed the independent fact check. In a Less Charitable interpretation you are not telling us the truth. Whether its our rights or freedoms or his own words colorado just cant trust the real cory gardner. Were back with dan and kim. And Dorothy Rabinowitz joins us. Do you think the ad is effective . I think its not effective. Once youve gone into the hellhole of being mailed a cartoon figure and having uterus attached to your name there is no help for you. And i think that this isnt a effective rebuttal. How is he rebutted it . Hes basically said he would not vote for the colorado which is why interesting in that ad they didnt have Cory Gardners words just had the media questioners. Thats right. This is a large part of what is burying the womans cause here the fact that the war on women along with people outside, Debbie Wasserman schultz, about pulling women back by the hair. Shes the Democratic Party chief, yes. And the aggregate, you know, impression that this leaves is, it is all too much. I think you have to accept the fact that there are intelligent theres an intelligent body of citizen called the women of america who when is a little consciousness raising that theyve been used by every other alleged i had afflicted group that the democrats have ever tried to pull in, they pull back. People understand when they are being used and you can see it in colorado. Right, but, kim, if i read another story that talks about how democrats are crucial that they get out the women vote, thats their big advantage, they need it, they have to get it especially Single College educated women out. And thats why i assume udall is going back to the well despite the fact that hes been so mocked for being a onetrick pony. Look, theyre doubling down on this strategy. Its flailing but they dont have anything else. And this is one of the stories of this election. This has not just been a referendum on the president but some timeworn democratic strategies. The war on women worked for them in the past. They decided to go allin it, Something Like 50 to 60 of all the ads run out in the states attack ads have focused on womens issues. But the problems the polls show theyve largely alienated women. They also turned off men. And now their deficit among male voters is so huge that the only thing theyve got is to try to convince some more women to come out for them, but even then they are not pulling ahead in women the degree they need to be to offset the damage theyve done with men voters and thats why they are behind in so many polls. All right. Lets take a look at it. One Senate Campaign republicans response to the war on women. Allison lundergrimes that im not good enough. That i cant graduate College Without raising your taxes. She wants me to believe that strong women and strong values are incompatible. She thinks ill vote for the candidate that looks like me. Rather than the one that represents me. As a strong kentucky woman, im voting for Mitch Mcconnell. Because he votes for me and works for us. Do you think the testimonial ads work, dorothy . I guess its better than having Mitch Mcconnell on there. Thats not the kind of comeback we need. It looks very much like an election phony. What they really need now is an allout assault on what has been going on for a long time, saying this is what the Democratic Party is. This is what they do with people. They put them in this undifferentiated blog of a mess and people are not uncon, of these things. What is required is raising that consciousness. And thats what the republicans should do. In other words, attacking them for saying they are trying to be manipulative. Absolutely. This is all part of the democratic theme which is identity politics. You play to specific Group Identities whether its africanamericans or hispanic americans or young people or women and you hit two or three themes that are assumed to motivate them particularly if you are raise their fear level and then you try to drive turnout. Absolutely. But this is a theme theyve been running now for several election cycles and especially the war on women is beginning to lose altitude. Its simply an old Campaign Theme thats starting to show, you know its yellowing. Lets look at the candidate. There are only two women guaranteed to twin in these Senate ElectionsSusan Collins in maine and West Virginia. Republicans. Two republican women and joni ernst in iowa befeeted four men in their republican primary and it looks like she may defeat bruce braley in iowa, in results its the republican women showing results. And she said i do not plan to run on my gender as a Second Lieutenant in the National Guard should say. Whats the single biggest difference between why it isnt working as well this year but did work in 2012 . One, i think that theyve overdone it. But the other thing, too, the issues are different this year. Weve been talking frijs National Security. People forget its a big issue for a lot of women voters and weve had a lot of oversea questions theyve been turning more to candidates they feel comfortable about and thats often republicans. Okay. Going to be interesting to watch. Still ahead the forgotten house with all 435 seats up for election tuesday, republicans are expected to make some midterm gains in the house, on immigration to tax reform, what the outcome could meanwhile for John Boehners legislative plans. Nothing beats americas favorite chocolate chip cookie. Nestle toll house made with real butter, eggs, and brown sugar for that scratch made taste. Well now you can bake as few or as many as you please. 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Including lymphoma, have happened, as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. Before treatment, get tested for tb. Tell your doctor if youve been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if youve had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flulike symptoms or sores. Dont start humira if you have an infection. Talk to your doctor and visit humira. Com this is humira at work while all 435 house seats are up for election on tuesday fewer than 40 are considered competitive with House Republicans expected to grow their majority by anywhere from five to 15 seats but will governing get any easier for beleaguered House Speaker john boehner . Were back with dan and jason and kim. So, kim, you know, the question that i have is why are so few seats really competitive this year . I read in some places only 30, so youre talking about well under 10 of the seats up. Well, some of its structural, right . We always have these conversations about gerrymandering and after the 2010 census the gerrymandering was really amped up and thats just made put a lot of people in safe seats. But i also think republicans have made a mistake going into this election in that they decided they were not going to come out with an agenda, with a unifying theme, something that they could go to the voters and say, look, we as a party if you give us more seats we promise well pass these four, five, six manageable things. They decided instead to make it entirely a referendum on barack obama. Thats clearly helping them or working but i think had they come out with a positive message they would have expanded the Playing Field even more. Why didnt they . Was it a simply a matter they werent unified even in the house they couldnt get their act together to do that . Or did they think it was a bad strategy to give the voters some positive reason for voting for them . Yes. And theyve been very yes and yes. Theyve been very divided obviously and that was a huge issue getting this house caucus to gel around any one program has often proven tough which gets to your point about the need for a greater majority. But i think the other thing, too, is there was a little bit of fear about coming out. They worried that it might give democrats ammunition to go after them and they wanted to keep this focused on the president. Jason, though, still not much doubt despite the caveats from kim that the democrats are playing defense for the most part. They had to give up going after most republicans they thought they could go after and they are trying to defend safe what they thought were safer democratic seats. Where are some of the vulnerabilities for the democrats . I look at arizona where there are a couple of very close house races. Kirkpatrick to hughes Ann Kirkpatrick in the north of the state down tucson way. And she has Gabby Giffords old seat. I think thats a place where republicans can make some gains. Also in the Hudson Valley of new york nan hayworth is running for her old seat which she lost in 2012 and shes doing quite well in the polls, so there are some spots where the gop could do very well. The the republicans have been so wiped out in new york and northeast new england that anything looks like up from there so theyve got a seat in New Hampshire theyre competing for and three in new york state they might pick up and theres a maine seat, too, which has been competitive. Yeah. I mean, Carol Shea Porter in New Hampshire, the democrat, is under a lot of pressure. Republicans could come out of the election with three new house seats three new governorships in the northeast. It was just unheard of, a lot massachusetts, connecticut and rhode island are very competitive. A lot of these house seats i think have been nationalized, paul, people that vote in house elections watch National Politics and, again, barack obama is hanging over a lot of these elections putting the democrats on the defensive. Even in seats they thought were safe. But to pick up on something kim was saying about the divisions in the gop, it will be very interesting to see how boehner handles this caucus even if its a larger caucus. What types of republicans is he going to be dealing with in terms of tea party folks, conservatives and so forth and hes also lost some of his major lieutenants, eric cantor wont be there, tom latham is gone, buck mckeon is gone, so hes going to have his work cut out in terms of making sure that his caucus is on the same page. But hes campaigning, too, john boehner has raised 100 million for these house races and this weekend hes campaigning all over the country, new york, california, West Virginia, the northeast. Hes building in the events the candidates win, they get to the house theyre going to owe john boehner. If the republicans do get to 246 seats which i guess they have 233 now theres a couple open seats and get to 246, it would be the biggest republican majority in the house since the 1920s. Yes. So that would be an historic event if they get that far. Most people are saying they probably wont get that many. But where else do you see republican republicans can lose seats . Where republicans could lose seats . Well, they feel a couple of candidates that are having a little bit of difficulty, you know, for instance, lee terry is one of them. Just having a bit of trouble getting along. The thing thats more interesting to me, paul, i heard a statistic, 80 of all the money that republicans are spendispend ing independent money right now is going to districts that barack obama won. And so thats as weve been talking illinois, california, new york, hawaii, places. So this is republicans pushing in to a lot of new territory. And largely limiting their losses around the country. Thats not their concern much at the moment. All right. And john boehner does need a new majority so he can govern and the back benchers dont basically run the show over there. So, when we come back, the green money machine. Move over koch brothers, time stier is spending big in tight midterm races. Will it turn the tide in the democrats favor on tuesday . That disease is for older people. Not me. I take good care of myself. Im active. I never saw it coming. It hit me like a ton of bricks. Pneumococcal pneumonia was horrible. The fatigue. The chest pains, difficulty breathing. It put me in the hospital. You dont want to go through what i did. If youre over 50, talk to your doctor. You may be able to prevent it. Im just looking over the company bills. Up . Is that what we pay for internet . Yup. Dsl is about 90 bucks a month. Thats funny, for that price with comcast business, i think you get like 50 megabits. Wow thats fast. Personally, i prefer a slow internet. There is something about the sweet meditative glow of a loading website. Dont listen to the naysayer. Switch to comcast Business Today and get 50 megabits per second for 89. 95. Comcast business. Built for business. Well, after decades of complaining about the influence of big money in politics environmentalists are spending the big bucks themselves this election cycle. Liberal Hedge Fund Billionaire environmentalists are spending the big bucks themselves. Tom stiers reportedly spent a whopping 74 billion in the midterms with his next gen Political ActionCommittee Like this ad against rick scott. Out of 100 scientists 97 agree that Climate Change is re real. At this point whos refusing to accept the science . I guess we could agree to disagree. Dont look at me. Im not a scientist. We like it hot. Were back with kim strassal and James Freeman. An ad so simplistic even a caveman could see through it. What do you make of that . Well, i think its interesting because thats one of the few places in the country where trier is spending money on the Climate Change message. In other places its a loser. He doesnt talk about his real agenda there. There i guess, i dont know how accurate it is, this claim that everyone except caveman believes its pretty ridiculous. But i think maybe thats one place where voters actually do want the styier agenda. How is it working that Campaign Working . I remember advising tom styier to spend his entire fortune. I guess hes not doing all of that. Its a shame. But hes doing a lot. Hes getting close. We may be able to categorize this as the biggest investment in nothing ever. I mean, 75 million from him to super pacs. You have the coalition of outside environmental groups, some of the big players. The tally at this point is 85 million that they have spent on the election. Yet, paul, the gallup just recently did a poll. 13 issues asked voters which ones they cared about most. Climate change came in at the dead last. It does every single time. Thats despite this huge push by these groups. Its not being talked about on the campaigns. The voters are not interested in it. In fact, what you have seen are polls showing that i think one of the reasons that some of these incumbents are going to lose their jobs is because the voters want the opposite. They want more natural gas drilling, they want the pipe lines, keystone very popular. Heres i take all that, but what theyre saying, were playing the long game. Okay, yeah, we may not win this time but were preparing the field for 2016 and beyond. Okay . And going to make it easier for democrats in 2016 or in more swing states to be able to win. And influence president obama and the Democratic Partys agenda so theyre continuing to try to ban coal for example. They continue to try to limit not all of them but in new york state for example, there is a ban on fracking for natural gas. They want to extend that around the country. Thats right. Certainly theyre putting money into races where they think politicians theyre supporting will do what they consider the right thing, will make sure the epa can keep regulating emissions for green house gases. But its really striking how much of this agenda is hidden with all of that money. You look at pennsylvania. Some of the ads theyre running for about education. In colorado, gay marriage, abortion. New hampshire theyre talking about bogus claims that scott brown supports tax give ways for out of state companies. Very careful efforts to avoid talking about the real agenda behind all of this money which is Higher Energy prices and as kim said i think we may get up wednesday morning and learn a very nice lesson a refreshing one that money alone is not enough to move an agenda in american politics because its hard to see right now how this is moving the needle. But its moving president obama, is it not . I dont think hell approve the keystone pipe line. Contrary to my predictions, i was been a loser on that for years. The president going to continue to try to regulate green house gases. So maybe this is all about making sure that democratic president ial candidates in 2016 go along with the tom styier flow. You put your finger on it. Thats what this show of money is about. Its to remind president obama and future candidates that a lot of their bread is buttered by a very wealthy community. All right. Thank you all. We have to take one more break. When we come back our panels picks for the biggest upsets on tuesday. You owned your car for four years. You named it brad. You loved brad. And then you totaled him. You two had been through everything together. Two boyfriends. Three jobs. Youre like nothing can replace brad then Liberty Mutual calls. And you break into your happy dance. If you sign up for better car replacement, well pay for a car thats a model year newer with 15,000 fewer miles than your old one. See Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. Time now for our hits and misses. This week our panel makes their predictions for the biggest upset races on tuesday. Dan . The governor of maryland, Anthony Brown a democrat running against businessman larry hogan. Brown started 20 points ahead and its now dead even. This is a race to watch. Jason . A pickup opportunity for republicans in the governorship of rhode island. Where the democrat was well ahead until two weeks ago when she sought the endorsement of planned parenthood in one of the most heavily Catholic States in the country and now its dead even. Kim . Watch minnesota seven. This is colin petersons seat. One of the more powerful figures, a ranking Community Chairman running for his 13th term and yet he has got a race on his hands. If he loses this it could be a big night for republicans. And id say watch the main governors race, where paul page, he made it a threeperson race. One with a plurality and hes done it again and he may yet pull it out this year despite all the controversies of his term in office. Watch that one. If you have your open upset prediction, be sure to tweet it to us. Thats it for this weeks show. Thanks to this weeks panel and thanks for watch. I hope to see you next week. Im paul gigot. Hello, everyone. Im kelly wright. Im julie banderas. Back on u. S. Soil after eight months in a mexican prison. U. S. Marine veteran Andrew Tahmooressi is now a free man. Well have a live report on how this all happened. Plus, a judge rejects a quarantine for a nurse who treated ebola patients. How the ruling could impact the governments ability to protect the public against this deadly disease. A night of trick or treating turns into a halloween tragedy after a driver crashes i