0 ukrainians are prideful, passionate, strong people. the russians do not have that will to fight but you cannot imagine the conflict people are going to having to kill their fellow native russians in ukraine. >> trace: we have to go. thank you all for coming on. >> thank you. >> trace: continuing coverage right now. the sovereign nation of ukraine this morning under fire as russian forces unleashed a violent and massive military attack. at this very hour, explosions can be heard rattling in at least three ukrainian cities be air raid sirens blast across the capital city of kyiv paid moscow claims it's already knocked out ukraine's air defenses. the country now under martial law and its only beginning a war we've been fearing for months. good morning, everyone. it's trace gallagher continuing live team coverage of the crisis in eastern europe. it's now midnight here in los angeles, 10:00 in the morning in kyiv. dark morning for people there and around the world. for months we were told that what was yet to come as nearly 200,000 russian forces massed along ukraine's southern border. u.s. intelligence provided a virtual play-by-play of how russia would advance. today, that intelligence proved to be spot on. it began last week with preliminary operations in separatist regions of ukraine. yesterday came the predicted cyber attack. then explosions as russia targeted ukraine's militaries and airfields from all sides. successful defense hits on russian military vehicles and warplanes. president biden is expected to unveil what the white house describes as "severe new sanctions against russia. but so far, threats indeed have failed to deter vladimir putin from launching a bloody campaign to seize ukraine on his own. it's an ever escalating conflict and efforts of diplomacy by the international community has failed so far to resolve. the coming hour, will be joined by our team of fox news correspondence. we have lucas tomlinson and steve harrigan on the ground in ukraine. kevin corke is standing by in washington with reaction from our nation's political leaders. we will get all of them. in the meantime, president zelenskyy and the ukrainian parliament, well... let's go back to steve harrigan whose life for us on the ground in kyiv. >> this is a city now declared by the government to be under martial law. they are telling people to stay in their homes. if you take a look at what's going on, not everyone is listening to that. some people are out and driving. other people are huddled in the subway. there were bombings in the predawn hours and there were more attacks in the past hour. we could hear a sort of rumbling in the distance. it's a foggy cloudy day here so you can hear just sort of muffled thunder in the distance. there have been no reports of mass casualties from any of those attacks. russia is saying it's using precision weapons and they are not targeting civilians. it's likely they are targeting air defense systems. russia is saying it has knocked out the entire air defense system of ukraine. we can't verify that. we can say we've seen jets and helicopters fly overhead. it's not clear whether they are ukrainian or russian. there is a real fear in the city now, of fear which had not existed up until today for a lot of people. people are fleeing, especially west and towards poland, it's bumper-to-bumper. there are lines for gas hours long. people buying groceries, people trying to get money out of the bank. they are fleeing. other people are in their basements. they are in the subway system here. it's 37 degrees. it's cold and wet out there. people are scared about what could happen. so they are taking shelter where they can. the russian president vladimir putin has announced an operation in eastern ukraine. but it's clear the facts in the ground go far beyond that. the nation of ukraine is being attacked on all fronts. from the north, to the east, and to the south. the most worrisome prospect at this time is russian forces from the north, belarus across the border. more than 30,000 russian forces there on the move. they've been battling ukrainian border guards, heading this way towards the capital city. what happens next is not clear. will those tanks, the armored vehicle stopped outside the city? will there be a siege operation? it seems likely there is the extent and widespread nature of this attack that this is about regime change. it's a change regime, the decapitate this regime. the russian forces are going to have to come here to kyiv. that's what we are waiting for, that's what we expect. >> trace: as you look at the screen, live pictures, 10:04 a.m., coming west out of kyiv, it's bumper-to-bumper. looks like it'll come take a really long time to get these people to where they are going. we aren't saying all of them are fleeing but certainly some of them are and i wonder if you know, i don't know, i don't want to pin you in on this. if you know there are any policies in places like poland on what they would do, they would allow these people to come in, are they allowing refugees to come across the border, do we know any of that and has that been talked about? >> it has been talked about in multiple bordering nations be preparations underway to receive refugees and of course estimates of the amount of refugees if there is a full-scale russian invasion and that's certainly what we are looking at this morning is up to 5 million refugees. this will be a test of that. i think the question can be asked, why did people wait so long? why are they flooding the highway now? i think that speaks to the fact that for many people here in ukraine, what is happening today is the unthinkable. to be attacked with rockets, with missiles, with bombs from russia in their capital city was for many people here unthinkable. so they haven't left until this morning when they could hear for themselves the explosions. trace? >> trace: i know you are busy and let you go, but it seems to me that when people are leaving and you say that today is the unthinkable, was there a belief here from the days that you have been here that these people believed that vladimir putin was just not going to go forward with this campaign, or that diplomacy really stood a very good chance of succeeding? >> i think there was a bully from top to bottom, from people on the street to journalists who have covered the story for years, the analysts that a full-scale attack was so illogio reckless that it simply couldn't happen. it is happening, even the worst expectations. not just eastern ukraine, not just the capital, cities in the west under attack as well. full-scale major invasion, regime change likely goal. >> trace: steve harrigan, back to you as a news brakes. we've seen in kyiv people coming west out of kyiv, likely going to or near the polish border. many of them could be refugees. 44 million people in the country of ukraine who had steve harrigan just telling us moments ago that up to 5 million of them could become refugees. that would be a crisis for ukraine as well as poland, and some other countries that are nearby. of course, that's one of the key things will be looking at in days to come. i want to read this, from the ap. the european union is planning, quoting, the strongest harshest package of sanctions it has ever considered and an emergency meeting thursday as the russian military attack ukraine. the european union president said, quoting here, "the target is the stability in europe and the whole of the international peace order and we will hold president vladimir putin accountable for that. we will present a package of massive and targeted sanctions to european leaders for approval." strongest in harkness package. the question is will it be enough and will it give the people of ukraine breathing room to be able to mount their fight. let's turn to fox news correspondent lucas tomlinson, live with more. >> i'm located in with the western ukrainian city about six hours west of where steve harrington reporter from the capital where he talks about, they are likely coming this way. the mayor of the city a few days ago said he is prepared to take hundreds of thousands potentially of refugees and this is a university town about the size of boston, home to one of the oldest universities in the country and the mayor told me he's actually prepared to dismiss the students, use the dormitories to host some of these refugees. speaking of the russian launching this invasion, there's video on social media of russian forces five hours north of the city, where i am right now in belarus heading south, heading this way. we'll continue to look at that. as far as conditions on the ground, after joining the last time, i took a walk around the city, i saw signs of panic, walked in a small morning, much longer line then i saw, people buying a large amount of food, a lot of potatoes, coffee. this happens to be the copy capital of the country. people loading up on supplies. the queue at the atm machine come along lines of people getting cash. and a police station a few blocks away, one of the largest police stations in this country, the first time we've been here, saw a number of police officers surrounding the building with small machine guns and certainly obviously taking precautions. in terms of the air raid sirens we heard, we heard five different blast of the air raid sirens. we spoke to a number of residents here saying they've never heard that in nearly 50 years. >> trace: it's amazing. as you look at the traffic again. we are looking at, lucas, coming out of kyiv, and that the mayor is willing to hold some of these people and yet there are troops marching from belarus down to where you are. you are about five or six hours away from where steve harrigan is. how far would that make you from where the troops are coming down? >> if they just go south, the russian troops from belarus will be here in five hours. straight shot from the highway. we are located 40 miles east of the polish border and six hours west of the capital of ukraine. this is coming. like steve said, a lot of people in the streets here for weeks here in the ground about three weeks, in the capital of two weeks, here for about a week, nobody saw this coming on the ground. getting warnings from the pentagon and the white house, when we spoke with people on the street they shrug. they say they been in war, a largely dirty route war with artillery but nothing what we saw this morning. the first phase has ended. now its missile strikes, caliber cruise missiles, short range ballistic missiles that took out from what the russians claim our airfields, military targets, ukraine's air defense system. you would expect that the air defenses have been neutralized, you'll see helicopter gun ships. we've seen these civilians, satellite images showing thousands of russian helicopters in belarus and crimea. you expect those will be launching later today. >> i'm curious. why leave kyiv and go to lviv? is there a sense you get to one of these outlying areas even though it's a large city that there is no appetite by the russians to take these over and what they really want is the grand prize which is the capital of ukraine? >> you'll need a few people in the ground asked that question, trace but some people refer to this area as a safe zone. people left the capital in the last few days leading up to this. some of them where staying in hotels around here. some have moved in some plants. they are here because i thought they'd escape, you know, potential carnage elsewhere in the country. they think this is a safe zone but what these unconfirmed reports of troops going south from belarus, there might be no city safe in the country. >> trace: very good point. no city safe. lucas, we'll get back to you as a news warrants. it should be noted that earlier amy kellogg told us if you look at kyiv which is a bustling city, they are about to get hit with the harshest most severe sanctions they've ever endured there, at the very least maybe it won't go after vladimir putin personally with him and his oligarch friends. but the question is how severe will it hit cities like moscow where they are are young bustling populations, and many people saying they didn't want this. they wanted the life they are living where they are successful and now their lives are going to be changed in ways that are dramatic beer with us now retired u.s. army colonel great to see you again. i look at lucas tomlinson and he is saying, well, they think of lviv is a safe haven, 4-5 hours outside of kyiv. they think it's a safe haven and you wonder is any place right now in your estimation safe inside ukraine? >> here is one of the things, the physical limitations here. all the things we said that president biden told us, and this department, approximately 200,000 russian troops that were surrounding the area. that's not enough troops to even closely to take over the whole of ukraine. so they can't be going on to all these cities, just to give you an idea. they sent 60,000 into grozny a in 1995 which is only 27,000. it would take almost all the troops they've had just for the one city and they aren't going to do that. if you are going to knock out some of the communications and radar systems, which apparently they've already done, they are going to bypass the cities to knock out the actual field armies, and then if they want to turn back to the cities, they have a chance to do that with almost nobody to defend them. >> trace: what i hear you saying, you think that this might be a fair fight then a lot of people give the ukrainians credit for? >> i don't think it's a fair fight. i don't think they have the capacity to defend. that's why even after this war is started, i'm still a strong advocate that they need to make a negotiated settlement to end this as quickly as possible. the authorities in kyiv, because they cannot win. they don't have the military capacity. they have big heart, they can fight hard, but if they fight hard they'll die fast. >> trace: other military experts came on and said, listen, they don't have to win to they have to stand their ground long enough to turn russian sentiment against this campaign. >> that's going to take a long time. because the big strength of the russian military is their fast ability to have mobile armored firepower. they could kill large numbers of troops fast. they won't stay alive long enough, not enough of them to even get to that point, i don't think. i think that's a bad strategy. >> trace: i read a little earlier talking to lucas tomlinson about the sanctions. the european union, they are coming out just like president biden is saying, hey, these are going to be the strongest, harshest sanctions the world has ever seen and they are calling an emergency and it's time to act. is it enough in your estimation or should have this been done a long time ago? >> there's really no alternative. you can't just let biden get away putinget away with this. but here's the real problem. the sanctions are not a tool, it's a double-edged sword. if, for example, we take them out of swift, that sounds good on the surface of it. but lots of european countries depend on that to receive payments from russia and that will also be cut off and that will affect their economy. we have to be very careful not just of the energy but even of the financial markets, or it's going to cause problems for us. if that drags on, that's going to cause problems for the entire western world and that's something we have to be careful with. >> trace: is anybody, colonel, watching is closer than president xi with taiwan? >> the circumstances are very similar between both of them. because the fact is one of the reasons, there is many, one of the reasons why the u.s. is not even thinking about fighting for the ukraine is because we can't. we don't have the force capacity and certainly without many months of build up to have a chance in a conventional fight much less potential for nuclear. the same is true in the east with china and taiwan. because we say a lot of we want to defend them and we want to help them out to make them independent country, but we don't have the force structure to even come close to competing tactically with china who is 10. and if xi wants to come he could probably move at the same time. we can't handle one of these can really pay we certainly couldn't handle both at the same time. that's a concern i do have. >> trace: watching the u.n. security council go through their emergency meeting and we look at the whole thing like, well met, russia is like, okay, we've all come to the understanding that the u.n. security council is feckless and useless in cases like this. what about nato, what's your assessment of nato in this situation? >> look, i'm kind of a critic of it, because this could've been prevented. we did not need -- the nato alliance did not need to go incorporate both the ukraine and georgia. it wouldn't help the alliance. it wouldn't make it stronger. it was clearly going to be a point of contention with the only power on the continent that could bring problems for the whole western alliance. so i think that they made some really bad technical decisions and strategic decisions. they should've stopped at 2004 and say, let's consolidate what we have, and let's cooperate with russia the best we can. that would've been a winning scenario and it wouldn't have it would have completely avoided this. putin has called our bluff with these sections, i'm not going allow you to come onto my border here and there is a crisis at nato, no doubt about it. >> trace: a surprise as you look at these pictures of kyiv, it could take hours to get outside the city. are you surprised there has not been another explosion in the kyiv, the capital city, for the better part by our count of an hour, an hour i have? what's the pause? what's next? >> i would have expected that, that's happy after what i expected. what putin wants to do is take out the military aspect. that's why they talk about cervical strikes, because they don't have any... they truly are related with the slavic heritage and all that. nobody wants to kill innocent people by any stretch. he just wants to preserve the security and take out the military capacity so he can then make his own guarantees on his border. >> trace: there doesn't seem to be any concern by the people waiting in that line who are outside walking around town. there doesn't seem to be a concern on behalf of the ukrainian people that they are going to be targeted in the minutes ahead. >> yeah. i truly don't think that would be the case because that would be just a catastrophic failure of on biden's apartment a military blunder on the highest order putin's part. a military blunder of the highest order. he may be cold, cackling, but he's not stupid. he's going to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible. >> trace: let's check in with our fox news senior correspondent amy kellogg. good morning to you. >> hi, trace. well, lost in the news cycle has been the fact that opposition leader has been on trial again for yet another charge. i've lost track to what he's being tried for at this point because the other news has been this buildup to war. he in court today has just said, an opportunity in being in a room with a lot of witnesses saying that he is against this war being carried out "by thieves and bandits," and he says that fratricidal war is impermissible anywhere in the world. add to that, trace, the fact that many people are posting on social media there a sense of shame about all of this. russians are scared for the ukrainian friends and relatives and human beings, they are scared for changes to their quality of life, but many of them comment on how guilty, ashamed what's going on, much like the ukrainians who didn't believe this war was coming until it came. i think russians feel the same way. trace, i'm quite curious to know what was on the minds of the kremlin insiders i spoke to over the course of the past few weeks and who told me, no, there won't be a war. it would just go against russia's interest in the end and i really believe them and some of them i think believe what they were saying. it must've been a very small circle of people who were really pushing this whole plan forward, of course first and foremost president to putin. but i think there's a great sense of shock this morning as people come to terms with what's going on and the uncertainty it will mean for their lives. >> trace: you bring up navalny. there were a lot of his supporters protesting this. i'm wondering if there is enough anti-biden sentiment because of this attack that we will see more and bigger protests in moscow and around the country. >> st. petersburg's and other cities, the protests that took place here after navalny's arrest and his return to russia, we should remind people that he was poisoned with a soviet era nerve agent. he claims at the hands of the kremlin at the orders of president putin. western countries believed that he was poisoned on orders from the highest level. he returned here very briefly knowing he'd be thrown into jail and people took to the streets and very large numbers in the bitter cold winter, they were arrested and beaten, the screws were tightened to such the extent that the leadership of his campaign had fled abroad and a lot of people just gave up the fight because they couldn't get authorization for a protest bid they'd go out, be beaten, rounded up, and it ended there. we will see if this protest movement that we are hearing about and that we know people are feeling in their house down the carts materialize into something and actually scare the regime and make a difference here. i even think that zelenskyy's plea last night and rushed into the russian people because he couldn't reach vladimir putin by phone was somewhat for that as well to instill in the hearts of russians that biden is not listening so it's up to you, you know that you do not want to kill your slavic brothers. it's up to you guys to start telling your leadership enough is enough. we don't want this, trace. >> trace: you wonder because you brought up a great point earlier in that you watch moscow and at such a bustling city and you pointed out, listen, these people are thriving here. all this energy coming into russia, you know, the economy, it's not the greatest economy on the planet but the economy is stabilized at least to a certain extent and people were kind of getting through to them, living the fruits of that, and all of a sudden you talk about getting your legs cut off. these sanctions at the very least might take a while but these sanctions will definitely hurt the economy. >> they will. i kind of take issue when people refer to russia as a gas station. i don't think that's fair. russia is dependent on its petrochemicals, but there is a lot of activity, economic activity going on in this country. of course, it could be much better and they should have diversified more perhaps when the price of oil was as high as it was in recent memory, the last decade. but the fact remains that you still got a lot of cash, a heck of a lot of corruption, trace, and that ties us back to the navalny story. nevertheless, there's a lot going on. it's very vibrant here and inseam down the st. petersburg for the christmas lights are still up. no energy shortage here obviously. the city feels like it's festive and forward-looking and there are funky creative businesses and restaurants and bars and all of that. just to see, so strange of the president would be taking a step that could potentially bring all of that to a screeching halt for people who are enjoying the fact they have all of this to experience as a russians. especially those with memories of living under communism, trace. >> trace: it's not just a big gas station. they have huge amounts of wheat, nickel, aluminum, and all the prices of those things are going up. amy kellogg but we'll get back to you as news breaks. russia using an onslaught of cyberattacks to undermine ukraine's defense abilities. the next question is are we next? with us now is matthew shoemaker, former intelligence officer under the trump administration. i guess the question here would be, you know, are we or should we be concerned? we look at this 5,000 miles away like, oh, the poor people of ukraine. should we be concerned about cyber activities, mellon tended cyber activities, agree to cyber activities aimed at the united states? >> thanks for having me. off the bat there is a cause for concerned to make sure that it gets localized to ukraine and keep it focused there. at the same time too, the same reason that putin is doing this and even allowing these activities whether it be cyberattacks or just kinetic activity that's going on right now, it's because putin thinks he can get away with it. he didn't think that he could accomplish his goals, he would not be undertaking these activities. when it comes to the cyber side of things, we certainly need to make sure that our electrical grid in particular are secure but at the same time that our banking activities in particular as well are secure as well. i know that president >> trace: 11 has spoken to a number the past number of days to make sure that they are taking appropriate precautions. it's a wait-and-see scenario. >> trace: because we said this earlier when the russian president came out and said those who interfere, kind of pointing towards the united states, we'll see consequences like you've never seen. do you think part of that threat included cyberattacks against the united states? do you believe that vladimir putin does some of the intel, does he really think is cyber guys are top-notch? >> it seems that way. the reason he is conducting those threats and even attempting to intimidate us is because he thinks it will work. i think that it comes down to... the fact that he things it works that there is a failure of leadership from the white house. they have given the impression to vladimir putin that he can succeed with what he's doing. so yeah, i think that he thinks that he can accomplish his goals with little consequences. >> trace: we saw it earlier just as expected that they went after ukraine. they have the cyberattacks on ukraine. the bottom line is that they want to flood their networks with all this traffic so that nobody else can use it. the ukrainians at what point using other providers who can trying to get us away from these attacks. do you think that was accurate? do you think that may be kyiv, the ukraine was able to defend and deter again some of these attacks? >> the last few years, they've learned a lot in terms of how to defend themselves from russian cyberattacks. this has been going on since 2014. about 4-5 years ago in particular the ukrainian electrical system came under heavy attack. they had to learn on the fly, if you will. fairly decent hacks to fight against russian cyber activity. the russians as your previous guests have mentioned they certainly are an absolute top tier actor when it comes to cyber activity. it's something the ukrainians are going to struggle against. they were much better than they were in 2014. it could only be a matter of time, unfortunately, before they succumbed to it. >> trace: how big, in your estimation, is cyber warfare now in the overall picture of war, talking about russia going to war with ukraine but how big is the cyber aspect of that in any war but especially this one? >> trace: i think just the way the russian government has put a particular emphasis on it both in terms of how much money they spend on it and the amount of time that they put into it. at the same time though as well, cyber in many respects is a very cheap sort of activity compared to some of the other aspects of warfare such as funding the navy or funding the army. to be able to fund cyber, you need a person behind a desk with a computer. it becomes much cheaper from their perspective and they can be sitting at their desk in moscow conducting these activities but i think the russians find a particularly important for the 21st century aspect of warfare. >> trace: as you look at the big picture, the overall thing, nobody should be better in this cyber warfare than americans. we created most of these machines. you would think in silicon valley, there are people who are being recruited by intel and the state department saying, hey, we need you, and we need some cybersecurity defense forces, and you are the people who can do that. is that not accurate? >> i don't agree with that assessment at all. i think the united states is the one to beat when it comes to cyber activity. unfortunately though, our involvement when it comes to ukrainian cyber activities right now and helping to defend ukraine and they are cyber networks, is going to be a presidential level decision. that'll come down to whatever president biden decides if he wants the united states to assist ukraine when it comes to defending their cyber system. unfortunately we are waiting probably another 7-8 hours before he gives us tiny indication of what that might be. >> trace: you are saying that the silicon guys are targeting the president, he's going to announce the sanctions and the question becomes, matthew, when and how do they kick in, and what triggers them, and how long is it going to take before president president putin feels the pinch. >> thank you for having me having me. >> trace: speaking to president zelenskyy overnight and biden will meet with g7 leaders today to discuss the next step for the u.s. and its allies but let's go live to fox news correspondent kevin corke. he is in washington with more on this. >> good morning to you, trace. going to be watching very carefully what happens at the white house. we do expect that the president will get on the phone and speak with g7 leaders later on. we will tell you more about that in just a moment. as you pointed out, it's late wednesday into thursday that he had a conversation with ukraine's president zelenskyy during which the u.s. leader called russia's military activity unprovoked and unjustified. mr. biden pledging that the u.s. and its allies would coordinate their responses in united and decisive fashion including more severe sanctions on the kremlin. speaking of which, mr. biden will speak to the leaders of the other g7 leaders. at some point tomorrow, we have on fairly good authority, that'll probably happen late in the morning, perhaps around noon. after which mr. biden is expected to address the american people about the next steps to engage the world in stopping russian aggression. i mentioned a moment ago, trace, and i think this bears repeating, there's a real sense here in washington that not just administration but leaders around the world really have to come together with the most severe sanctions possible at this particular stage. as you pointed out throughout your coverage tonight, it's not a deterrent if it doesn't really hit hard. at this point given what we've seen from the russian leader tonight, and as we continue to watch the coverage and they really move into central parts of ukraine, they really have to come to the kremlin with a great deal of strength. whether or not that'll make a long-term difference is anyone's guess, but it's a collective that'll make a difference certainly as far as the world is concerned. that's the position of the white house tonight. i just saw a note from a friend that works for the white house. i've been insert a conversation tonight. he just said to me you should expect the sanctions to really be something. of course, back to you. >> trace: i just want to focus on the if i can with you for a second because this note that we got from the european union it says, "we will present a package of massive and targeted sanctions to european leaders for approval." that always scares me, when you have a group that says "we'll pitch these to leaders who we can all approve this." how long does that approval take? the approval needed to be last week, last month. not next week. >> absolutely right. in this particular circumstance, we have to keep in mind, trace, they are economic ties that also have to be somehow massaged. we have talked at length about germany's ties certainly to the kremlin. what exactly might they be able to extract from the other g7 leaders and other g7 economies to go along, to get along. and i do want to also point this out, trace, and the matter what happens with g7 leaders tomorrow, understand this clearly: the kremlin has a great relationship with xi jinping and the chinese but what that means is they have been opened and continued economic relationship with one of, if not the most powerful economy next to ours on the planet. that means they could probably work around some of the sanctions regardless of what comes out of that collective tomorrow. nevertheless in particular if they can work on the swift banking circumstance and get them pulled out of that, that should get some sort of impact, trace. >> trace: that's why i asked you because i knew there'd be great insight. thank you. we appreciate it. in the meantime here to talk more about that sanctions is economist and former naval officer john jordan. thank you so much for coming on pistol looking at live pictures. this is kyiv, this is coming west out of kyiv, the capital city. what they are doing is going toward a couple of places. one is lviv as one of our reporters on the ground said. they are going there because the mayor of lviv said to them, we will take in refugees. we will give you some of our college dormitory because apparently even though it is in ukraine, it is considered a safe haven. the other aspect of that as a lot of these people might be going to poland, and poland is expecting according to intel as many as one 25 million refugees may cross the border and that would 1 to five million refugees may cross the border. i want to read this again, when the european union says that we are going to throw these targeted sanctions to europe he leaders, approval means that we will do a hand raise here and for those who have arguments and debates about this, it could take longer than the 5 minutes it needs to take. your thoughts? >> that's absolutely right. the longer it takes, the greater the opportunity for putin to exact political pressure and economic pressure. russia has the ability to inflict economic pain by tightening up the gas bigot. that'll have an impact on the calculus of european leaders. mark to the point, sanctions of even the most stringent type has been baked into the putin's calculus here. he can seek ukraine and still have his trump card. enacting that pain on european leaders. i'm pretty sure that this is not going to be effective. i spent most of my adult life studying the russians. working with them. learned their language. this is already baked into the cake and will be largely ineffective but it's the barn door closing after the horse got out. >> trace: we just got this breaking. the dow futures now down 657. we know the market has already dropped to correction territory now, more than 10% in recent weeks. 657 is not going to help. do you think when the markets open tomorrow morning that there is going to be a lot of, and we know wall street wall street hates uncertainty, but there is a great deal of uncertainty right now. >> absolutely and the market is going to price that in. if the market is going to fall out of the bottom tomorrow, oil is going to be down a couple of days if not tomorrow. the next few hours are crucial. if putin, the russian army has been successful in decoupling the ukrainian armed forces and severing their command-and-control links and is able to overrun them and the ukrainians don't appear to be putting up a fight, that's going to mean that this will be over very quickly. if it looks like the ukrainians are actually able to hold their ground and the russians were unsuccessful in a lot of their decapitation strikes, unable to sever the ukraine, break up the ukrainian armed forces, we are looking at an insurgency that could go on a long time and potentially be very troublesome inside of russia. very interesting meeting this week with regard to the sdr, their spy chief or the thing to watch for is the action in around the russian airport -- the kyiv airport. if the ukrainians are able to hold off the russians and inflict a blood he knows have at least a victory there and booger up russian plan so to speak, that may give part to european leaders and may cause some problems internally in russia. it remains to be seen. the next few hours, the effectiveness of the initial onslaught is going to really tell us the story of the ark of this conflict. >> trace: you talk about the next few hours being critical and how long does it last? are we talking about the next few hours going into the next few weeks, or the next few hours going into the next several days? what's the timeline on when people feel like there might be some light at the end of this ukrainian-russian tunnel? >> there isn't any light in the very near future. if, in fact, the ukrainians are able to mount something of a defense in the russian initial strikes were not as effective as the russians would like, and the ukrainians fought them off at least in some places, they bought them some some breathing room, then you are looking at more potentially of a protracted struggle. higher russian casualties. that will buck up western will, so to speak, and that'll make it possible if the west desires to bring in more defensive armament. if, in fact, the russians are more successful in neutralizing and basically decapitating the ukrainian military and neutralizing it and rolled right into kyiv whether it's an airlift operation at the airport which is ongoing right now -- there is conflict and shooting in and around the airport and that's really the hinge point here. if the russians are to settle here, you could see this being over and moscow installing a very friendly, family to moscow, regime in kyiv. >> trace: i think anyone in these meetings tomorrow, you talk about the e.u., i wonder if anybody raises their hands, we are kind of keeping up here with the united states and other allies here, but europe is going to pay the brunt of this. europe is already in an energy crisis and shutting down north stream nordstream 2, if he decides he's going to slow walk more natural gas walking into europe, it could boost their prices even more. i wonder if the europeans, we are carrying the load here, americans need to pony up some money. >> that's one of the weaknesses of democracy. they can slow rolled her pain and western european leaders in berlin, paris, london, rome, other places are going to have to decide how much of this political pain they are willing to tolerate and that's really a question of public opinion inside these european countries. it'll be interesting to see how much will there is where this type of pain before public opinion forces some of these countries to fall away from a tougher line towards moscow. that's really going to tell the tale and i'm pretty sure the russians have fought this through. >> trace: i don't know if this is under your bailiwick and i want to read this because it's breaking news coming across. new comments from zelenskyy, president zelenskyy of ukraine quoting here, vladimir putin has unleashed a war with the entire democratic world. he praised his nation's soldiers, hailing their courage, and urge civilians not to panic. he said in quoting part, we are starting the creation of an anti-putin correlation. i've urged global leaders to slam the putin with all possible sanctions, offer large-scale defense support, and close the ukraine for the aggressor. together we must save ukraine, save the democratic world, and we will do it. i mean, it sounds like he's saying, okay, we are all one team, and son of a gun starting bright and early tomorrow morning, or today in ukraine commit wing to act as a team. >> they articulate significant parts to that quotation, trace. he said raising soldiers which means that he still there and he's communicating and asking europe for help which means that there is may be reason to believe that the ukrainian military may be holding out and posing sniffing resistance to the this is chilling. he's asking the west and if you think about this to close ukrainian airspace. not just basically, that's just asking nato to interfere on the ukraine's behalf by providing them air support, neutralizing russia's ability to launch clues missiles, ballistic missiles, and airplanes and helicopters. there are reports coming across the wire that we are hearing right now is that ukrainians have shot down five russian jets and helicopter. here president zelenskyy is asking for nato military help and that's a very big step. that seems to be what he's asking for. >> starting for the anti-putin correlation. i think you are on the right path. we appreciate it. in the meantime we've been showing you these powerful images of thousands of people fleeing ukraine as russia draws closer to the capital city of kyiv. good morning to you again. >> good morning. can you imagine those people in those cars they are? they are terrified, trying to flee bombing. yet they are absolutely stuck. they are trying to get out to the west towards poland because bombs started to fall here, rockets started to fall in the hours before dawn. i think this speaks to two things, really. it spoke to how people here didn't believe this is going to happen. they didn't think russia would attack ukraine. they saw their ties with russia as to close and they didn't think a full-scale invasion would happen. it also speaks to a failure on the part of the political leadership here, the failure to prepare the people for what could happen and what is happening now. so we have a complete road jam here, traffic jam on the way out. we also have people trying to get money out of banks, trying to buy food, people taking shelter as well either in their basements or in the metro system here, in the subway system. initial disaster here on the humanitarian front. there have been explosions but no reports of mass casualties but russia is saying they are using precision guided weapons to attack manned control centers and air defenses. we have heard explosions about an hour ago. we heard a thud, thud, sounded like thunder in the distance, but no reports of mass penalties in kyiv yet. >> trace: you see people walking around in their cars. one of the trucks is in here for a long time. doesn't seem like they are moving at all and the question is was there a plan. i know martial law has been put in place and that people should be sheltering in their home. i wonder if there is a plan in place that may be 1-5000000 ukrainians could flee the country. is there an evacuation plan ever point in place that you know of? >> no and the situation on the ground speaks to a lack of planning. it was remarkable the difference between the ukrainian leadership and many in the west who were warning this russian invasion is coming, this russian invasion is imminent. while i have to say 6-7 times before hitting on the exact day, the warnings were clear from the west. it was a very different tone from president zelenskyy here in ukraine. as late as two days ago, he said we don't expect a widescale war with russia. he was wrong. his people weren't prepared. now they are paying the price. >> trace: yeah. i just want to run this by you, steve. i was talking to a previous guest that they are talking about, zelenskyy in his latest statements, they are creating an anti-putin coalition, really asking for world leaders to team up with ukraine. seems like they are asking for help from nato and other countries. it doesn't seem like help is going to be on the doorstep tomorrow. >> i think the new president of ukraine, relative newcomer to politics. had to ask for a lot of things that might not have been practical like a no-fly zone over ukraine. he also asked biden to visit ukraine when tensions were at its height something never was going to happen. he showed his inexperience and some friends and also showing his resolve on others. bravely traveling to munich on that conference, staying put here, and now trying to rally the ukrainian people. he's late, but he's staying firm. he's backing the military, he's declared martial law. he's here today. the real question, how long will he be here. the russians according to u.s. intelligence do have a list of detain or kill ukrainian politicians bid they'll have to figure that zelenskyy would be on the top of vladimir putin's list. >> trace: i just want to know if you've heard of many while we've been on the air, have you heard of any kind of fighting between ukrainian and russian forces coming from the eastern part of the country or any place you know of at that time? >> there certainly has been heavy shelling from the russian side in the east. russian forces crossing into ukraine from crimea and also from the north. so fighting on three fronts and moving closer to the capital on three fronts as well, trace. >> trace: steve harrigan live for us in ukraine. back with you as a news breaks for joining is now is jonathan hoffman during the trump administration and brett bruen, former director of global engagement in the obama white house. i just want to ask -- we have to talk about this going forward. you see the traffic coming out of kyiv and there apparently was no plan for it you wonder what the plan was, what the thoughts were and what they were hoping against in the days that led up to this. there doesn't appear to be a solid plan on how to get people that want to leave ukraine outside the borders. >> look. first and foremost, we have to acknowledge the ukrainians by and large have been incredibly courageous in the face of unimaginable threats. and that i think is the real story here. president zelenskyy first and foremost really providing his countrymen the example. for that matter, the west an example of how you stand up to president putin. people are scared after having seen the attacks overnight and i think it is not surprising you see folks heading into their cars, heading to the west. obviously that is playing out right now on the streets of kyiv and elsewhere. let's not lose sight of the fact that ukrainians have demonstrated an incredible resolve and resilience. >> trace: yeah. jonathan, do you want to add to that? >> i agree on the fact that the ukrainian people have shown a great deal of resolve. we'd expected that the intelligence community has expected and has shared publicly multiple times over the last few weeks we believe the intentions of the russians were. and as a result, i think you have people who are somewhat prepared for what has transpired over the last few hours. the interesting thing will be that as people move from cities and move toward polian and tried to evacuate how orderly is that being received and whether they are able to do so safely appear will be seeing that in the coming days and seeing what the international community does to assist and by all indications nato, poland, the rest of the european community seems contending to help the ukrainian people as they become displaced. but that'll be one of the additional hard eggs we are going to see in the next few days. >> trace: what do you make of the ukrainian president zelenskyy asking for, you know, the airspace over ukraine to be shut down for the aggressor? >> he can certainly ask. i think it is unlikely that the u.s. or other countries are going to take that step. nonetheless, it is important that president zelenskyy is pressuring the u.s. and nato allies to do more. even if we are not going to enforce a no-fly zone, we are not going to get into direct combat with russian troops, there is a lot that we can be doing from a logistical standpoint, intelligent standpoint and certainly providing more arms to the ukrainians. they are going to need them and i think it is important for us as we watch these first images out of ukraine to look at hard what more can we do to help the ukrainians that are trying to hold the line? >> trace: i would say, jonathan, maybe you disagree, there's probably very little chance of a no-fly zone being enforced by the united states united states or nato. >> well, i think all eyes are going to be on president biden tomorrow when you get his remarks at noon. he has indicated that there will be, have some reporting that there will be a package of sanctions will be introducing as well with the european community, has indicated they'll be introducing. i do not pursue tomorrow the president announcing any type of military action that would involve either overt or covert forces or aircraft enforcing tomorrow. i do not think the possibility of u.s. aircraft going head-to-head with russian aircraft over the skies of europe is a place that the president wants to be. in his defense to some extent on that, i don't think the american people are there yet. i think that's one of the issues we've seen with this is that there's been a lack of leadership to prepare and talk to the american people of what this actually means. this is not a conflict that's only about ukraine. this is a conflict that's about the destabilizing 80 year old post-world war ii global economic security framework that has lead to prosperity for billions of people. and the president would be well served to spend some time tomorrow talking about that. not just the context of ukraine which is a humanitarian crisis right now, and unjust infringement on their sovereignty. what this means for the world and in a larger context is that putin believes that there is no world order, that it is might makes right and you are going to see the chinese look at this as well and they are very fond of that view as well in the pacific realm. so right now the american people haven't been informed about that. they haven't been lead on what that means to them and i think you can see the president talk to them in a great extent tomorrow to do so. >> trace: we said earlier that president xi is looking in taiwan going, i wonder what. my last question to you is that the sanctions will be announced tomorrow. they could be severe, very harsh, and then what happens then? what's the next move that president biden makes, the e.u. makes, what happens then? >> i think that's an important point, trace, we didn't see in the white house statement this evening was any call for russia to cease and desist. after we impose these severe sanctions, we need a plan for how we are going to ratchet up the pressure. how we are going to push putin ultimately back and hopefully out of ukraine because if not and we heard it from putin earlier this week, he has designs on other parts of europe and that will be deeply destabilizing for not only are allies but potentially the united states as well. >> trace: last word on this, jonathan. >> i'm looking forward to see with the president has to say tomorrow. i think this will clearly be the most important speech of his 18 months in office. and to see how he handles it and what sanctions he proposes. i don't know and i hope they aren't planning on holding him back up your reporting indicating that is the case. if there is a time for sanctions, it's now. if there's a time for action commence now. what we don't want is for putin to take additional steps. it would've been good to section him harshly three days ago, either sanction him yesterday then it was today. waiting longer isn't going to make this easier. >> trace: jonathan rath hoffman you see live pictures, the war