0 vladimir putin and the russians while the ukrainians are being killed before our eyes right now today, here and now. >> trace: here and now. yeah. congresswoman tenney, thanks for joining us. we appreciate it. continuing coverage of the breaking news you see life pictures right there, kyiv, ukraine. the war is on. now to a fox news alert. air raid sirens heard across ukraine from the capital of kyiv. ukraine is under martial law. explosions rocking ukraine as russia on launches an attack. it's only the beginning. a full-scale invasion. a defiant ukrainian president says he's not going anywhere. he vows his people will stand and they will fight. hello, everyone. i am trace gallagher with continuing live team coverage of the crisis in eastern europe. it's 11:00 p.m. here in los angeles, 9:00 in the morning now and kyiv, a dark morning for the people there. and around the world. for months we've been watching the buildup of russian forces along ukraine's sovereign border. just a few hours ago, despite the kremlin's repeated insistence that it was all just a military exercise, those forces lashed out. it began wednesday with cyberattacks and then came reports of explosions. russia targeted ukraine's military bases in border guards. at the white house, president biden vowed the u.s. and its allies will hold moscow accountable for what he calls an unprovoked and unjustified attack. he is expected to unveil new sanctions he calls severe sanctions against russia in the coming hours but it's unlikely threats and deeds can deter vladimir putin from completing his violent mission to proclaim ukraine russian territory. an ever escalating -- failed in a huge way to resolve. we will be joined by our team of fox news correspondence. we have lucas tomlinson and trey yingst on the ground for us. kevin corke is standing by in washington with reaction from our nation's political leaders and amy kellogg will join us from moscow as the european union prepares to face one of its biggest crises in decades. first, let's bring in fox news correspondent lucas tomlinson standing by. lucas. >> for the fifth time this morning you can hear air raid sirens. not seeing any russian jets or bombers but clearly this is more than a test. it might even be a warning to the people here. as you mention, the russians are claiming they've taken out all of ukraine's air defenses. certainly some air defenses in the western part of country. right now these air raid sirens are on. one of the things i think it's important that we go back to was the russian response to the u.s. the letters that went back and forth between ambassador sullivan and the state department in russia. i was thinking just before we went on, something that was in that letter, an 11 page letter delivered to the u.s. ambassador in moscow that said if putin does not get his way on nato and the security guarantees, he will be forced to take action. he called them military technical actions. even though they rejected any kind of invasion which clearly was a lie, it was our first hint that something like this was going to happen. it's also very clear that this attack, this full-scale invasion is coming in phases. phase one the began early this morning was a missile attack. all the damage done in this country, the strikes against ukrainian bases, ukrainian military fortifications, all from a standard short range ballistic missile, caliber cruise missiles. where did russia perfect this technique? in syria. their interaction in syria began in 2015. a lot of people look back at the russian experience in syria and say this was their proving ground, their testing ground. most of russian fighter pilots had combat experience thanks to deployments to syria. i interviewed a retired lieutenant general who used to be the head of u.s. forces, u.s. army europe. he said he didn't even know russia had this capability to launch cruise missiles from warships that we saw in syria. tonight they are seeing all of that practice come through. when russia invaded georgia in 2008, they used about half the forces they use to invade ukraine. it really was a mess. there was a lot of friendly fire. trouble with communications. vladimir putin set a goal to modernize his military nursing the fruits of that. launching these short range ballistic missiles. it appears actions are going into the invasion phase. seeing armored personnel carriers from the north from belarus. we have these russian warships offshore. we are still waiting to see what that invasion looks like. >> trace: i want to read this to you because this pertains to where you are. it's an alert saying if you hear a loud explosion or sirens, we just heard sirens moments ago in the background, immediately seek cover. if you are in a home or building go to the lowest level of the structure with the fewest exterior walls, windows and openings. close any doors, sit near an interior wall away from any windows or openings. kind of like a tornado warning that we've seen so many times. my question to you is because we have talked about what's happening in the streets behind you, the siren was going off. are people adhering to these alerts? or is it just kind of -- they are going about their day? >> trace, looking down on people, they look like they are just living their day. seeing people walking dogs. some kids are still going to school. people are walking around. the streets are little quieter, no question the people know what's going on. people do feel like they are getting a little bit more nervous and jittery. but for the most part here in western ukraine, a city the size of boston, it's a university town, home to one of the oldest universities in ukraine. people appear to be going about their lives but no question they are very tense. some targets the russians hit were close to lviv, some military bases to the north and south. >> trace: lucas tomlinson live on the ground. back to u.s. news breaks. nice job. let's bring in senior foreign affairs correspondent -- maybe not. marsha blackburn "we pray for the people of ukraine as they defend against putin's attempts to rebuild the old soviet union. biden must stand up to putin and immediately levy severe sanctions against russia starting with removal from the swift banking system. the usa stands with ukraine." that's a big question. is it enough to do these major sanctions against these banks? is it enough to have the international community condemn russia so that these banks will actually help shut down the russian economy? as we have seen in country after country where the sanctions have been severe, the leaders always end up staying the leaders. the people always end up getting hurt in the sanctions. it appears the -- because vladimir putin is very wealthy the sanctions will not directly impact him. a lot of calls to sanction directly the president of russia, vladimir putin, the man who calls the shots and called for this war to begin. air raid sirens and reports of blasts can be heard in the capital city of kyiv this morning. president zelenskyy of the ukraine has issued martial law for ukraine but as you see on the ground there many people are out and about. there are also reports of attacks on defense facilities and border units. for the very latest from ukraine, let's go back to steve harrigan standing by live for us and kyiv with more. anything in the past 30 or 40 minutes that's changing that we should know about? >> trace, it's a city under martial law. the military is in charge and they are telling people to stay in their homes. not everybody is listening to that. we are still seeing cars on the road and some people out walking. but before dawn we heard about 20 explosions and that really scared a lot of people. many people now are taking shelter either in basements or in the city subway system. it's a deep underground system. that's where the mayor has told people to go in case of bombing. it's 37 degrees this morning, cold, wet morning. a lot of people who live in the city of kyiv are huddled in subway systems below the ground because they are scared of being blown up by russian bombs. as far as the situation goes, wanting to keep in mind is putin's words. some frightening words from the russian president. the man who is in charge of this operation. he said, he gave a warning not just ukrainians but really to the world. he said don't interfere. if any nation interferes with this operation, the consequences that will be seen have never been seen before in history. an attack not just against ukraine but a warning to the entire world. a menacing warning. consequences never before seen in history. this as ukrainians are huddled in metro stations underground this morning. trace, back to you. >> trace: i wonder if your senses he means something else. the warning as he said again he said russia will respond immediately and there will be consequences we've never had before in your history. i'm wondering, we talk to an expert about it, if it includes cyberattacks? if it includes things russia believes it has an edge over the rest of the world on? that is something that we've never seen. you wonder what vladimir putin thinks he has in his quiver that the world hasn't seen that can give him a step up in this entire battle. >> you're right, a range of options from perhaps cyberattacks that have not been seen but keep in mind more traditional assaults. he has the potential to carry out as well. he had a major show of force before this operation took place. he and the president of belarus were in the kremlin situation room basically watching live fire exercises of ballistic missiles. this was to show once again to the world that russia when it comes to nuclear warheads, the largest power in the world. dramatic show of force on a warning to other nations to stay out of ukraine until russia settles what it thinks is its business here. the words from putin are extraordinary. he's talking about genocide against russian people and those separatist areas and he's talking about fighting against denazification. he's talking about nazis and genocide, that's the language being used. when you are talking about nazis and genocide, you're not talking about a minor incursion. this is a major battle with cities now all over the nation of ukraine being hit by russian forces. >> trace: he also is the same one in his speech a couple days ago who talked about one, ukraine and russia are one and these are his brothers and sisters. and yet he is bombing his brothers and sisters. the rationale and the reasoning doesn't appear to be there. >> it was fun settling speech, a tour through his own personal version of soviet history. it's important to keep in mind that this 69-year-old has been in power since the year 2000. i don't think anyone has said no to him in the past 21 years. certainly in this attack, no one stopped him. so we'll see where it goes. the other thing to keep keep an eye on ion, forces from belarus. ukrainian border guards have reported fighting with those forces. more than 30,000 russian forces in the north from belarus and they are moving south. that's the quickest way to the capital. that's the convoy to keep an eye on. where will those armored personnel carrier stopped? >> trace: great question. steve harrigan, back to you is the news breaks. thank you. joining us now his former chief of staff from the national security council. you're the man to talk to about all of this. steve harrigan kind of was close to ending on the fact that russia has more nuclear weapons than anybody in the world. ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons in 2018, struck a deal saying we'll get rid of them in return for some sort of security blanket that was never really laid out. certainly it doesn't mean nato has to go and defend ukraine but i wonder if ukraine still has -- if they had the nuclear weapons if we would be in this position. what do you think? >> it's an excellent point. it's going to have an effect with various efforts to stop nuclear weapons programs. it's going to make it harder to convince the north koreans to give up their nuclear weapons. it's going to convince the iranians to continue their sprint to get nuclear weapons. we made kind of -- some kind of promise to the ukrainians. i don't think it was spelled out as you said. now we are where we are. i think ukrainians which they haven't given up those weapons. >> trace: you look at what is happening. russia says it's taking out all of ukraine's air forces which is a huge strategic blow to ukraine. they have said they are going to stand and fight and they've got weapons from the united states, they have weapons from nato. these are valuable and clearly lethal weapons. the question is, this is a mismatch. this is a huge mismatch. are we, by arming these people, are we giving them a confidence that might be overstated? >> we have nationwide attacks. the russians are saying that they're only taking out military targets. they are not going to attack cities. you can believe anything the russian say. there has been video on tv and on the internet today of troops coming across the border. tanks coming across the border from belarus into russia. if that is true, those tanks are on the way to kyiv. i think this is a good point. the ukrainian people, ukrainian army, they may feel a little overconfident. on the other hand i think in trying to take kyiv, the russians will suffer some pretty significant casualties. it is hard to take cities. there will be many well armed troops in that region. so a half to think about what is the objective of this operation. does russia have enough troops to take these cities, or is russia hoping it's going to get capitulation by the ukrainian government before it tries to do that. >> trace: that's my next question. what if president zelenskyy says okay, we are going to take nate off the table. we don't want -- we want you to pull your troops out tomorrow. would it be enough? you look at what's happening here on i think the last thing as we talked about with some other people, the last thing vladimir putin wants is to get bogged down in another afghanistan like in '88. doesn't want to get bogged down in iraq like we have seen where these guerrilla warfare scenarios go on for months and months. sometimes years and years. i think that's the last thing they want here. is there possibility here that may be both sides are looking for an off-ramp? >> i don't think so. the nato membership was always a ruse. ukraine can't be admitted to nato unless all 30 members vote for it and there was nowhere near unanimity to permitting it. russia wants ukraine to be -- putin wants ukraine to be a russian client state. he was threatened by democracy in ukraine. he sees it in his sphere of influence. he wants more than just a silly promise that ukraine will never join nato. >> trace: when you say that he wants them as a -- he doesn't want to go in there and run, he doesn't want to run ukraine. he wants them to keep running themselves but he wants a kind of give the direction. he wants to say here's what we're going to do today. >> i think that's right but remember that putin had stalled -- installed a puppet government which was overthrown because of popular protests in 2014. he puts another puppet government in, there's a chance it will happen again. sometimes you have to be careful what you wish for. putin may be able to seize control of ukraine, the capital, overthrow the government. what happens then? the ukrainian people are not going to stand for being occupied by this russian army which is probably not large enough to resist will be a rather aggressive insurgency. >> trace: if we were, for the sake of argument, might be a bridge too far, if we were to take russia at its word and that they were only doing strategic strikes to go after the command centers on the military installations and so forth and that's really what their goal was, would that change your opinion on the way this should be, this should proceed or does ukraine absolutely not trust them and they go to war? >> i thought at the beginning of the evening that putin just wanted donetsk. this was an effort to knock out any troops that would stop the russians from taking full control of these provinces. i assumed that after putin did that, sometime in the future there would be wider invasions. i didn't think there would be a wide invasion of the entire country like this. i think this is something that putin had planned all along and i don't think putin's in the mood for negotiating. he has shown that over the last couple weeks, he has refused to talk to zelenskyy. unless there is complete capitulation and agreeing to be a russian puppet i don't think there is going to be a deal. >> trace: is that with the total capitulation means in your terms? being a puppet? that means that zelenskyy has to give whatever putin wants? >> i think it would be unconditional surrender of the russians make the term so that would be the capitulation. >> trace: and you think the national, the international community would support that or say it's not going to happen? >> the international community would never accept that. it's really a disaster for the international system but it's worth noting as we talk, how can we stop this? this is a result of the year of incompetent u.s. national security policy by the weakest president in the history, the catastrophe that happen with u.s. withdrawal from afghanistan, foreign policy that focuses on climate change. over the last couple weeks, positive press that joe biden cocked for revealing intelligence that putin is going to launch a false flag operatio. this was a ridiculous response and i think it emboldened putin to go ahead with this invasion. we need to have a reset of american national security policy after this disaster. >> trace: what next? if your president biden. or if you're giving him guidance, what next for him? does he go forward with the sanctions? is there something else he needs to have up his sleeve? >> i have to sanction. u.s. troops are not going into ukraine. it's not a strategic interest of the united states. we do not want unnecessary war. should have been maximum sanctions a year ago. we should never have dropped sanctions on the nord stream 2 pipeline. biden has been appeasing putin for the last year. he has let putin know there's opportunities now. he would never have had under a strong and decisive american president. biden needs to clean house. he needs to fill his national security positions with men and women of gravitas and sense, people like jim baker. someone who would be like jim baker. i would bring in jane harman. maybe bob gates, may be leon panetta. senior statesmen who can help reset our national security policy. give biden good advice to stop him from making bad decisions and stand up to these dictators who are really going to be on the rampage i'm afraid after this catastrophe. >> trace: so many bad decisions made in afghanistan and you wonder if those are going to kind of overlap. great conversation. thank you for coming on. we appreciate it. >> trace: fox news senior foreign affairs correspondent amy kellogg is life in moscow. amy. >> that's right, trace. things feel normal coming into the office this morning. traffic on the streets. people going to work probably in something of a stupor. i don't think many people expected this at all to happen. they certainly don't know what it means for their day-to-day life. my phone is lighting up with stories of the fall of the ruble. also the central-bank is announcing it's going to release some of its hard currency reserves to try to stabilize the markets. airports are closing. people are nervous about how they're going to get out of here when they eventually do have plans to go abroad. many people simply didn't recognize their president last night or early this morning i should say or whenever that message was recorded. it was a putin that many people had never seen before. i think a lot of people are awfully nervous. they seeing their life as changing now in a direction they simply can't predict. we are hearing from the kremlin press pool that the first phone call that putin made was to the belarusian president alexander lukashenko and then he gave the address which was prerecorded and then he had a phone call with the turkish president. then he has a meeting with the pakistani prime minister later today. it's kind of a hodgepodge of things going on. many of them seeming sort of detached from what's going on in ukraine which is the most important thing, an earth changing and a universe changing event. we have been talking about what putin said earlier today which was really a message that he wanted to change the world order, change the world as we see it, feeling aggrieved for not being part of the western camp and then trying to say that the u.s. has really taken over the world and that had to change because not only russia but the whole world's security was at risk with america sort of marching through being the only world power, starting wars in the middle east leading to an uptick in terrorism. then those words about wanting to do not defy -- demilitarized ukraine were alarming. there is a sense that it's been fabricated by many people here as well of course. the state propaganda and ctv has been building this case for a long time now. russians and ukrainians fought side-by-side against the nazis in world war ii and president zelenskyy himself is jewish. it doesn't make sense. zelenskyy said he had tried to call putin last night, understanding this was about to happen. putin wouldn't take his call. putin wouldn't take his calls we decided to address the russian people directly in russian. he normally states in ukrainian, saying that we are two different nations but that does not mean we don't need to be enemies. we respect the russian culture. we don't want any of this. ukrainians on some russians, some of the dissidents and opposition in exile, some with independent media and organizations are short of encouraging russians to speak out against what their president is doing. so far we haven't seen a sign of that. we know that any such protests would be put down very quickly. i saw on social media i noticed that there was a picket going on in belarus against war and i looked to see the picture and it was just a poster someone had put in their window. we know that the situation belarus similarly has been terribly repressive. people putting the colors of the opposition, red and white, in their windows, it's cause for arrest and perhaps imprisonment. >> trace: a couple things that i want to go over with you. you talked about the address that president zelenskyy gave. some of it was in russian. most of it was in russian addressing the russian people. was their response, reaction to that from where you are pushing mark to the people, do you know of any reaction? >> it's interesting. calling them propagandists. that's in effect what they are. journalists were tweeting about it and they were certainly drawing attention to it. it was very emotional speech and i can't believe that it did not move people. i did hear some people, this is informally, in chats talking about how they wish they had such a president who was so able to speak to the real person. it all happens in the middle of the night so i think reaction will be coming throughout the day. it obviously didn't change the course of events. certainly people here are waking up in what they consider to be a changed world on so many levels. having lived through the soviet union and an repressive regime and then segueing into what should have been a democratic world. now they are feeling like they are being dragged back in time and it just doesn't make sense. this is a city, moscow is different from the rest of russia in the way that new york and los angeles perhaps are different for the rest of the united states. it's a booming city, a clean city, thriving city on many levels and the fear is that that could change very soon. the thought is, why do we need this? we don't want ukraine. we want to be friends with ukraine. we don't want a war. we don't want to hear about body bags and we don't want our lifestyle being limited by any new restrictions. we don't want to be ostracized by the rest of the world. we don't want to turn into iran. >> trace: you've covered that part of the world for decades. i'm wondering through all this time, you mentioned vladimir putin's speech and how it shocked some, alarmed others. when you hear that speech, do you believe in the weeks that led up to this, maybe the month that led up to it, what was -- was diplomacy ever on the table? were international ambassadors and others spinning their wheels? >> we even have heard from president macron, not directly perhaps, through the grapevine. it's been reported widely that putin was a changed man when he sat for five or six hours speaking with him. turns out he wasn't speaking with him, he was listening for a lot of the time, giving lectures about history. people have said that putin has been increasingly isolated over recent years and some of that may be the long rain, 20 years. only hearing people who say yes to him then you have to factor in coronavirus and the lockdown precipitated the isolation that he has lived. and that's not just for putin. it's a lot of different world leaders. there is a sense that he was more in lecturing mode, trying to -- the fig leaf. he was trying to show the world he was open to diplomacy but it seems for some time now he's been developing and spinning and putting out a worldview that we are seeing now in its culmination as he goes after ukraine. >> trace: amy kellogg, live in moscow. thank you. back to you is that his brakes. joining now retired u.s. navy captain, captain bob wells. thank you for coming on. we are putting video on this creative some explosions earlier in ukraine. we have heard from the russians who say they have knocked out the air defenses of ukraine. is that something that you would believe? we have been told to believe very little of what's coming out of the kremlin. >> thank you very much. i think if they are trying to knock out air systems to basically create air superiority, it's going to take a little bit longer to do that. i also think that the national security situation with regard to the previous comments by fred were right on. i think looking at this serious moment, we need to be smart about it. we have to be very deliberate about it as well. it's not just talking about sanctions. we need to really address the american people about them know what's really going on. things have changed now. i would argue just as it was stated in "the wall street journal" earlier this week that this could be the cold war 2 moment and we need strong presidential leadership. it has to be trumanesque. >> trace: are you saying that we need to go forward with sanctions because they are imperative? it's important that we actually implement them because they are tough? or is there something else that has to be thrown into the mix? >> there is something else that has to be thrown into the mix. during the truman presidency, the soviet influence was really taking hold in greece and turkey. we came up with the truman doctrine, looked at stability in europe, the marshall plan and it needs to be an overall focus on readiness in the united states, building or military capability, creating energy independence for the united states, strengthening the united states, allowing congress to do its role with regard to strength and sanctions. i also think the american people need to see things other than banking sanctions. president reagan, when the incursions occurred in poland, basically denied operations by the russian airlines. if you look at that now, hubs in new york and washington, d.c., and miami, access to the united states. gives them access to the oligarchs in the united states as well as the americans. the sanctions need to be stronger but it needs to be more comprehensive. we need to be very, very deliberate. we need to really think it through and be smart. this is a new pivot that we need to take aboard. >> trace: i guess the question would be what does that do? is there a remedy or a solution there in the sanctions or any other measure that you would suggest that would help the people right now? >> i think the people of ukraine, we have to do what we can. provide intelligence as much as possible. we have to support president zelenskyy, the ukrainian ground forces, looking at the lines of communications from belarus, looking at naval forces in the black sea and also the eastern mediterranean with regard to the russians in their conduct at sea. we need to try to communicate as best we can with our -- strengthen the western alliance with the europeans and the european union. the g7. essentially coordinate as much as possible so that we can show solidarity for the people of ukraine while at the same time strengthening the deterrent posture for any future type of mischief that putin would do outside of ukraine. >> trace: you listen to people and some of the intel experts will tell you that if this is an all-out battle, we are talking about anywhere from 100,000 to 125,000 civilians in ukraine killed. military personnel. you're talking about upwards of a million refugees flooding across the border into poland and other countries. i am wondering, to those who say that this is an unwinnable battle for the ukrainians, what would you say? >> i disagree. i know many ukrainian officers up to the three-star level. i looked at their service during the 2014 incursion with crimea, also donetsk in eastern ukraine. ukraine has a special forces, many special forces officers and leaders. they are very, very capable. as you mentioned previously, there are the javelin missiles that are there against -- could be used against tanks. there's also the strength of the will of the ukrainian ground forces, armed forces themselves. many of them trained in moscow. they still wanted to be -- they used, we have a young country. we have a promising future. i think the will of the ukrainian people won't be seen as people that are weak but they are very strong. looking at the lines of effort that the russians are pursuing now, as you mentioned through their report with the sounds of armament in kyiv as well as the movement of tanks across the belarusian border, that says we'll see how far they are able to go. we'll see if air superiority is accomplished and try to do a battle damage assessment using american as well as other country sources to help the ukrainians and support their effort to defend their country. >> trace: one thing that turned the tide against the russians back in afghanistan was the fact that the afghanistan the afghans held their ground. it wasn't about winning. i am wondering if your senses the same. do the ukrainians have to win or do they have to stand their ground long enough to turn russian sentiment, turn the popular sentiment a different direction? >> i think they hold their ground. i think also there is another capability that they also have, as i understand it in ukraine, that is the stinger missiles, very effective in afghanistan. against the russian helicopter fleet. if you look at holding on as best they can. the waves from the eastern portion of ukraine, the railways. russia needs trucks to move the troops, not just the tanks coming forward. their airpower themselves with other types of antiair capability that could be mobile that the ukrainians can use, i just think they have to hold their ground in order for the russians to basically be brought to a stalemate and not have regime change. not to have president zelenskyy and his government leave power. i think they will stay there until the end. >> trace: captain wells, thank you so much. we appreciate it. thank you, sir. ukrainian president zelenskyy has reached out to president biden asking for the u.s. president to denounce the invasion, and president biden will meet with g7 leaders tomorrow to talk about the next steps for the u.s. and its allies. let's go to fox news correspondent kevin corke. he is live in d.c. with more. good morning. >> good morning. it's been very interesting watching all the changes happen late into the evening in our early into the morning here in washington. as you pointed out, joe biden did speak with ukraine's president zelenskyy by phone during which the u.s. leader called russia's military activities their unprovoked and unjustified. biden pledging that the u.s. and allies will ordinate their responses in a "united and decisive fashion, including more severe sanctions." i'll tell you more about that in a moment. biden will speak with the leaders of the other g7 nations tomorrow. the readout we got a little while ago, it'll probably happen late morning. after which he is expected to address the american people about the next steps to engage the world in coordinating a stop of this russian aggression. i mentioned a moment ago more severe sanctions. one of the things the white house official of talked about throughout the night is they are really trying to work on this step-by-step. it's a little bit if you will sticks and carrots. you want to make sure that you hit them in a way that gets their attention and hopefully will effect a change in behavior. however, by not going all in at once, you still reserve or retain some of the chances to have more carrots for later on if you want to entice the russians in another direction. unfortunately for this white house, they have seen throughout this night and throughout the time that joe biden has been in office, there has been a total disregard for his leadership by the russian leadership especially as it is related to ukraine. so now we are seeing the fruit of that distain and disregard. we will see if the collective effort by world powers will be enough ultimately to slow down vladimir putin. we will all be watching throughout the night and days and weeks ahead. >> trace: you talk about carrots and sticks. even those who are really good at these sanctions and can tell you exactly what they do and go after it, they'll tell you that the stick takes a while for someone to feel the pain. the sanctions are always kind of on the delay mechanism. takes a while for them to hit hard. at some point you feel if ukrainian people don't have that much time for the sanctions to work. there's got to be that kind of feeling inside the white house. >> you nailed it. when you thing about a person who is as well-positioned as vladimir putin is, not just his personal financial fortune but we are talking about having friends in wealthy places like the chinese for example and the iranians and others in the billing motions. he can withstand this and i'm sure he's game. i listened to morgan and fred and other guests they've had. i think they have laid out a scenario whereby vladimir putin has not only planned for the sanctions. he knows that he can wait them out for a while. i think the real question is how much can the collective powers around the globe finally come together? we've seen with the germans have done with respect to this and lead up to this particular incursion. not a lot which has been the complaint by some folks on the side of the atlantic. we have seen what the french have tried to do, diplomacy. now it's a chance to -- the powers of the g7 to put their money, if you will, where their mouths are and see if that's enough to compel change. >> trace: the last thing i would say or ask, there's got to be some feeling. people would say including the president of ukraine, if you have put these sanctions in place when we asked, a couple weeks ago, three weeks ago, mom ago. when they started amassing troops. now they would start to fight. they would be biting a little bit. wondering if the president things we should've put them in so at least now there would be some kind of -- talking with amy kellogg about this about whether diplomacy was ever on the table. and she thinks probably not. he was going to do this because he has a goal and he is have a school for 20 years. the question would be a lot of smart people in this administration must've said hey, these sanctions need to go in place yesterday. >> this will come out in the days ahead. in particular as people here in washington. there's always lots of hand-wringing, lots of predictions. most of them are wrong. sometimes you make a prediction of what will happen and you turn out to be correct. unfortunately for this white house there were those voices that said listen we need to act strongly. talking about how important it was to hit them early on. by the way, we listened to some ukrainian officials earlier tonight, the conversation with shannon bream and also earlier today with bret baier. they have been imploring washington to do more. forcefully. don't wait. we have heard john kirby and others on the side of the atlantic say you don't want to punish them before they do it. well, as we have seen, maybe that wouldn't of been such a bad idea. it's easy for me to him monday morning quarterback from my perch here in washington but i think it's a discussion point that will get a great deal of attention in the days ahead. >> trace: i heard john kirby say it, jen psaki. you don't want to punish them before they do anything wrong. i think the whole definition of deterrence is to deter. it's really tough to deter somebody when they have dropped bombs already. kevin corke, thank you. joining us, former deputy assistant secretary of state under president obama. to you the same question. this is the question of the day. the president is going to come out later and say these sanctions are going to be in place. they are going to be harsh, biting. go right to the head of the snake and go after putin himself. who knows exactly whether going to hit him with. the question is, had you hit him a month ago, they would be starting to take effect. they would start to feel the pinch a little bit more. maybe my assessment is way off. but i'm asking. >> this is the right question to ask. how do we deal with the madman with nuclear weapons? seems hell-bent on invading a neighbor that hasn't done anything to provoke him other than existing. i think it's very hard to navigate this, with the administration has been trying to do and i think this has been the approach that we've seen working is make sure we have unity with our allies. make sure we have partners in this program of punishment and sanctions and the nord stream 2 gas pipeline which was just canceled by the germans. we have verified that cancellation. it was a huge win. germany did not want to do that. that's a major loss for russia. there is a -- sanctions are meant to deter. there was diplomacy underway. constant engagement with russia and at the end of the day vladimir putin just seems to be hell-bent on what he's doing right now. we are going to see sanctions go into heart effect and it's going to be a longer-term program. for that we need our allies and i think we have them throughout this whole process. >> i want to go back to the nord stream 2 pipeline for a second. there's a couple things, it's already built. we know that. waiting for the spigots to be turned on. >> not operational. >> trace: that wasn't going to happen until later this year. so the germans are not losing any energy. the question that i have is what happens if the sanctions are put in place tomorrow and president putin decides that he wants to kind of turn the spigot down a little bit on nord stream 1. they are already in an energy crisis in europe. it could put their feet to the fire. >> it's a perfect question. it's a very good explanation for why it's excellent not have nord stream 2 going online. reduces the ability of russia to extort europe down the road but if they go to extortion, they are going to cut their revenue. that's going to be one critical thing. and quite frankly there is going to need to be a program and there are plans underway to try to ensure that there is support coming in from other countries and other avenues for gas. backfilling in the event of that. so a lot at play certainly and i think that's a risk. president biden has spoken to that. prices being impacted. that's why we have a strategic petroleum reserve at home. but these are the risks. this is the moment where the whole global community comes together and says to putin you have to stop. going to punish his economy. threat of nuclear war. i think we need to mention that tonight, and it's been discussed. he actually threatened to use the potential of nuclear weapons. he's operating in a different state of mind right now from anything that we've seen. we have to be very clear. this is a threat to us as well as ukraine. >> trace: yeah, you're right. the use of nuclear weapons is a game changer and that would change the whole calibration of nato and everything else. i want to give you a couple headlines. these are things are going to read tomorrow morning. crude oil tops $100 per barrel. this is after vladimir putin launched the russian attack on ukraine. "wall street journal" reporting natural gas prices rose around the world after the invasion by russia. single biggest exporter of the fossil fuel globally. that's russia. europe experienced the sharpest rally. futures for gas delivered in the netherlands, the benchmark, jumped 30% in early trading. in the markets haven't even open. maybe they have. they have there. 30% in early trading, the equivalent of $129 a megawatt hour. in new york, u.s. gas prices rose 6%. and it's 2:47 in the morning at 9:00 tomorrow morning there are some bets that those gas prices could be up 10%. >> yeah, this is horrible. horrible for the ukrainian people first and foremost. horrible that civilians are getting bombarded with no rationale, no fault of their own. it's a crisis. it's horrible clearly for the global economy and the impact. this is the downside of everything that people have been expressing concern about and we are seeing it. my hope is and will have to hope that we can find a way to get this to be pulled back. contingencies have been organized. the white house has been organizing with our allies. that's why it's good to have allies in this moment because we are going to need to lean on each other through his hard period. >> trace: as a former deputy assistant secretary of state under president obama, i wonder if you think, if you go back a little if you think there were some diplomatic paths that we did not go down that maybe we should have gone down. is that fair? do you think they pretty much exhausted all the options? >> i'm a big fan of diplomacy, obviously having served in diplomacy. i do believe that we've had constant engagement over the years with the russians. diplomacy, strategic stability, nuclear weapons, arms control. there's been periods going back to president bush in 2001. this has been a conundrum for multiple presidents to figure this guy out. we are going to probably have to have more diplomacy with him down the road as well. at this moment he's a pariah. isolated internationally. and he has done a real hole for himself in terms of anyone wanting to talk to him in the future and trusting his diplomatic word. we've had agreements in the past of nuclear weapons. those are crucial to our security. he has crossed a line now that i think really is putting the question, his word as a negotiating partner. it's destabilizing. >> trace: you're right on that and i wonder when you go down the road. it's tough to believe that vladimir putin is going to earn his way back into her role where people would take him seriously when it comes to diplomacy. am i wrong? >> you're not wrong. that's very, very destabilizing. the country with the most nuclear weapons in the world, the united states and russia combined we have 90% of them. that is something that one doesn't want to toy with. we don't want leaders who we can't trust and speak with about that. even with the soviets during rooms control throughout the decades we had agreements where we had confidence we kind of understood and got the other side. i think this is going to be a very critical moment to see if it's possible to get him back into the zone of real debate, real conversation, real dialogue instead of the misinformation, disinformation that he continues to put out. gaslighting and stating that we have no intention of invading while american intelligence he's him building up troops all along ukraine's border. we are saying that you're going to invade. confidence has been deeply harmed. >> trace: it really has. joel rubin, thanks for coming on. it's very important stuff. you are a great guest. thank you. national security and military analysts, rebecca grant. pennsylvania congressman brian fitzpatrick. cochair of the house committee on foreign affairs. i guess we will begin first with congressman. he's the only man on the panel so we need to start with him. wonder what your initial reaction would be from what you've seen tonight. even at about four hours to get through. what's the initial reaction? >> heartbreaking, obviously. i lived there as an fbi agent, mine last international assignment, became very close with the government leaders and citizens. from a military standpoint, it's everything that we have been seeing. everything that's been presented to our intelligence community and everything reported by your network and other networks. they are going to try to take kyiv. what that looks like remains to be seen. it is setting a god-awful precedent. i am fearful of a wild west type situation. >> trace: dr. grant, what do you think? what is it look like? if you're going to take over ukraine and are going to go after kyiv, what militarily does it look like? >> it's going to be very painful to watch. it's really, the question is will biden help ukraine fight off russia. what putin wants to do is make it as smooth as possible so the first 12 to 24 hours very critical. going after command-and-control targets. there's still a lot the u.s. and nato can do. helping ukraine providing military intelligence, location of russian forces, even some airpower and surveillance. they have got to decide if they are going to help ukraine fight. it's going to be ugly to watch. >> trace: it is going to be ugly to watch. is that the answer? you're going to have to do more, watch ukraine fight the battle? that's going to be heartrending for people around the world because this could go on for a long time. clearly at least from the outside looking in. >> three things that we need to do. the first is this idea that we are going to only do sanctions until we see what russia is going to do. deterrence has failed. so you have to flip the script. now watch the ruble go to the floor. really lay on the pain. and then you can offer to take the pain off. once putin decides to lay off or have more restricted aid. then you're going to see hopefully the russian people come out in the streets and they are going to feel the pain. that needs to be the strategy. the other thing, we need to have a russian military support. it's going to inspire and give greater confidence to the ukrainians and demonstrate to putin that he better not go anywhere near those article five nato allies. that would be a disaster. the last thing i would say is that the biden administration has got to get out of their head that they are going to disarm and move away from american nuclear deterrence. we need to be strengthening nuclear deterrence. talking about the threat of nuclear deployment on the part of the russians. it's not just about the number of nuclear weapons. russians think about it differently. they might if they pop off a low yield weapon that we would back off. we don't want nuclear deployment, not at all. we need to be shoring up deterrence because it's a very serious situation. >> trace: congressman fitzpatrick, talking about laying on the pain, we've established it takes a while to lay on the pain. this could have an implement of a month ago. three weeks ago and that pain could be really on its way or there. now it's going to take a while. now we have to sit and wait. there is little we can do right now for the people of ukraine. >> it's never too late. obviously this is not an ideal situation at all but we -- by the way, we have given them a lot of antitank but no antiaircraft, no antimissile defense systems. look what you're seeing. they have essentially, they are claiming that they have taken out ukraine's air defense system. this is a problem. they were asking for stingers along time ago. asking for patriot missiles. they have received very little if any, they got no patriots and very few stingers and they got them late. it's important to remember that i think rebecca is spot on. over half the ukrainian population today was born after 1991. after they won their independence. they want no part of russian control. russia may be able to take kyiv but they are not going to be able to hold kyiv or ukraine. it's going to be very ugly. that's really what we are about to see unfold and i pray that president biden is strong with his sanctions and that we are aggressive with cyber warfare, understanding not wanting to put troops on the ground but we have options. >> trace: a lot of military experts have said it's easy to take a city, very difficult to hold a city. your thoughts. >> yes, and zelenskyy has said that ukraine will fight. we have provided javelins and they have some stingers. ukraine fought the russians before back in 2015, they didn't get it in the end but they are really ready to fight. the crucial choice now for the u.s. and nato to help ukraine fight russia. thank heavens we have our f-35s in germany, nuclear capable aircraft. tactical nuclear weapons available in europe to maintain deterrence. that is ever so much more important. got to be ready and buttoned up in case of a cyber attack that extends beyond ukraine and reaches the u.s. or our nato allies. >> trace: rebecca heinrich, that's a great point. you look at the chessboard right now. the last thing vladimir putin wants, i'm sure he'd be the first to tell you, to get bogged down in endless war. >> the ukrainians, it's not even the ukrainian military that we signed 2015. it's more disciplined, it more unified, better trained, stronger ukrainian identity. it's going to be a tough military. they are brave. they are brave, outgunned and outmanned delay of courage and heart. it's our responsibility to keep giving them the weapons to do that. i want to put a caution on it. when we do that we are getting involved. i think we should do it. we need to make sure that we are communicating very crystal clear to vladimir putin that he better keep his name's more mild. better not spread them. there is reporting he was going to be near the polish border. he's got to back away from the polish border. ukrainians are not the ones who did anything wrong here. he was not nato. it was all on vladimir putin and his expansionist aims. he's been telling us what he wants to do for years. we haven't been listening. >> trace: i have about 30 seconds. watching reaction to what you're saying. i'm not for you can see this but these are life pictures and kyiv and they are under martial law. the traffic getting out of the city apparently is bumper-to-bumper. some of these people we don't know how many. some of these people clearly are trying to get out of the country. final thoughts. >> there's no question about it. what we need is a strong response so we'll see what president biden has in store for this next round of sanctions. i want to touch on something that rebecca has said so russia is secure in terms of numbers and capability but there is another x factor and it's the will to fight.