dr. ben carson surging in recent iowa polls. but according to the just released "new york times" poll, this is a national number, carson is in the top spot nationally. he has 26%. donald trump has 22%. those two are within the margin of error. senator marco rubio and ted cruz, and carly fiorina come in the top 10 spots. >> it's just one poll so you can't see you it's a national trend. but it's the first time trump has not been on top since early summer. he has been dominating the race. and it goes with a trend of ben carson surpassing donald trump in iowa. bill: margin of error 6 points. but when you look at dr. carson's support, he quadrupled since august, he's doing better with women, evangelicals and conservatives. >> in one of those iowa polls he was 84% favorable. it's hard to get 84% of the people to like you. he has a very effective facebook network. he's getting out there and contacting voters in non-traditional ways. bill: trump was asked about this an hour ago and this is how he reacted. >> i was number one pretty much in iowa from the beginning. i would say we are doing well. so i was a little bit surprised. this one i don't quite bit. i thought we were doing much better. i think we are doing much better. >> your eyes can deceive you sometimes. you go to political rallies and see a lot of enthusiastic people and think this guy must be leading. but the facts as far as iowa is concerned, we have seen several that show trump surpasses -- that carson surpasses trump. trump has been dominating the national race for so long, but all the polls show 60% to 80% of republicans haven't made up their mind. and they may switch candidates at some point. we still have less than 100 days to go before the first votes are cast. i would expect this race to change significantly in the next couple months. bill: rubio and bush and fiorina are stuck in single digits. what does that tell you? >> that's one way to look at it. it shows they are middle of the pack now. but if you are a that just for one of those campaigns, they believe that trump and carson will ultimately fade. they don't know how it's going to happen. but they believe they will fade. and when that happens it will be a jeb or marco or ted tore -- a ted or a carly race. bill: byron york for us in washington, d.c. martha: a lot of interest can numbers within this poll. there is other good news for dr. ben carson. this is the favorability number. he's crushing this number. 84% have a positive view of dr. ben carson. trump is in the middle of the pack when it comes to these numbers. meanwhile, trump talking foreign policy at a town hall meeting and he raised eyebrows with some of the comments he made. he talked about women wear burkas. we want it where the women don't have to wear the you know what. i said that makes sense. then i saw women interviewed, they said we want to wear them. we want to wear them for a thousand years. they want to. what the hell are we getting involved for. i have to put up makeup. wouldn't it be easy? i tell you if i was a woman -- i'm ready, darling, let's go. martha: is that kind of thing eating into his lead a bit? we'll gone it that with our panel. both sides of our argument coming up. bill: jeb bush trying to swing momentum in his campaign by bringing his brother in. the two talking about the race during a meeting with donors in texas. former president bush saying eventually the american people will say who has the experience necessary to be president. who has iran state, for example. jeb painting marco rubio as our current commander-in-chief. saying rubio and president obama have strikingly similar profiles. you can talk about ben carson, or donald trump and so many candidates who don't have experience like jeb bush did as a two-term governor in florida. martha: one of the things we learned from this poll is movement is possible and likely and will happen. that's why everybody is hanging in there because they think their moment will come in the sun. news that the gop cut a deal to avoid a shutdown of the government for the next two years. speaker john boehner in his final weeks in office says he's cleaning out the barn before he goes. peter doocy is live on this. what happened here? reporter: conservatives in congress have a problem this deal, first the spending increase of $8 billion. and speaker boehner is hammering out terms and he's on his way out the door. the critics say the does not reflect the will of the house but the will of the speaker. but some of the more moderate members in the house think it's good to let the next speaker start with a clean slate. >> we are about to transition to a new speaker. it's important we have the question of speaker to be ryan, what leadership role will he take? i think it's a combination of yes, i think he will have the majority. but you also need the new speaker in the lead in this process. reporter: this agreement is rare for this congress. it will need just about all of the democratic leaders to back it. he says it it makes sure private equity firms and hedge funds pay the bills they owe. it will be the last time president obama and republicans in congress will fight over the budget because this won't expire until the next president is sworn in. bill: defense secretary ash carter and the joint chiefs chairman about to testify. we are watching that for headlines as well, martha. martha: donald trump trying to relate to american voters talking about going through hard times as only he can. will a comment on a loan he got from his father come back to bite him? or will it help him? plus this ... bill: a bit of outrage over that. a police officer dragging a teenaged girl across a classroom. what happened and how his that now explained. >> we have to look at what happened that led up to it and what happened afterwards. ducts. because no one kills germs better than clorox. feel free to be yourself all day.... just switch from denture paste to sea-bond denture 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and create jobs because they think they can make a profit and have success. bill: sounds like jeb bush. martha: the next three months will be interesting. we are starting to see shifting of these numbers. the fact that 75% save they don't know who they will vote for yet is very interesting. bill: there is a debate on all this economic news. the pentagon's top brass arrived testifying on the u.s. strategy against isis. in ash carter, and the joint chiefs chairman getting set to testify. this on recommendations we put boots on the ground in syria for the first time. adam kinzinger with me now. i know we have had strike forces go in and out of syria. the focus would be on raqqa and eastern syria and ramadi in iraq, a town that was peaceful just four years ago. what do you think is the right move? >> i think we do have to step up the fight. the president has been obsessed about talking to the american people about what we won't do and what lines we won't cross. it's time to talk about what we'll do. we'll defeat isis. raqqa is their spiritual headquarters in syria. this is the headquarters in the old islamic state. i think the more we can be involved in -- nobody likes to talk about it. we'll have to do direct action. we found people where we found the guys fierce on our side, the special operators come in. we continued that and unwound it and it was basically destroyed. that's what we would have to do. bill: what's the number of troops that the american people supported? >> i don't know the actual number. what i think we need to have is the propertier number so we can inflict the amount of combat power necessary to unravel these networks. it will probably be some people on the ground protecting them, keeping them safe. but i think when this all said and don't american people want a president and strategy that will defeat the enemy of freedom in the america not necessarily one that will look good in the newspapers. bill: it seems the fall of ramadi got attention of people in washington. two years ago fallujah fell. that's when we should have started bombing but instead we waited a year and aloud this organization to develop legs. it's almost a country. bill: you can make recommendations but the commander-in-chief doesn't have to follow them. >> no. he has a tremendous amount of power in the constitution. it's his decision and his decision alone. history will judge the president in terms of did he stop isis or did he give them an environment where they can explode. i think pulling out of iraq was the beginning of bad choices. bill: did putin force his hand? >> maybe to an extent. i don't think this president understands the threat putin poses, and not just in the fight against isis, but 10 or 20 years down the road. i would like to see him be and little tougher against the russians in ukraine. bill: you are starting to see what has been a stalemate for several months. according to reports in washington, the president said let's figure this out. >> i give the president credit for reversing the strategy. everybody basically knew it. i want to give him credit where credit is due. by the seems like there is more an obsession about troop numbers. 5,500 at the end of the year. so when it's all said and don't president need to make clear, 80% of the afghan people support the presence in afghanistan. we'll probably thereby for a while and the president need to make that clear. bill: the president is saying a no-fly zone is a no-go because it takes american personnel to make it happen. martha: breaking news between the showdown between the united states and china. china's foreign minister telling the united states that we need to watch it when it comes to the island they have built in the south china sea as u.s. navy warships do drive byes around those recently built, fabricated eyed in the south china sea. >> we need somebody that can go to dhiena and say, folk, it's type. you can't keep taking our money, you can't keep take tour jobs. 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latest island in the u.s. china sea. china has been building those islands. beijing calls the u.s. moves there illegal with our ships saying they will take the steps necessary to protect their interest in the south china sea. john bolton was a an ambassador from the u.s. to the u.n. we have seen 2,000 acres built, there are reportedly barracks and air strips. they are creating territory out of thin air, and they are saying this is china. >> they essentially claim the entire south china sea. they have declared a capital to rule over this area. these rocks and reefs are claimed by the philippines and taiwan. it's international waters. and in vietnam where it' called the right innocent pass and. sailing within the 12-mile limit, we are saying we do not recognize that claim. i think this was a mission that was long overdue. it took the white house a long time to approve it. but we are missing a strategy to deal with this land gra grab cha is doing. oil for the world go through that area. martha: the criticism of the administration is they haven't pushed back and these country and actors in the world will continue pushing until somebody pushes back. china's defense minister said their military will take all necessary steps to protect their country's security and they strongly request the u.s. to prevent a recurrence of sailing into their waters. >> apparently they did not protest it. if we are going to do this in a sear why you way we have to have more ships in the water. but nobody should misunderstand how potentially dangerous this is. >> the worry i have is the white house has not thought this through because if we get in a situation where the chinese crowd our ships and impede their passage and there is a collision at sea, what do we do then? if the united states hadn't initial gate this free of navigation exercise and backs down, it will be worse than not having ini yaitd it at all. think is what happens when you project weakness. the risk of confrontation increases. martha: you are saying if you back don't' war than not going at all because you have started giving up one of your chips. the president met with president xi at white house, and no doubt this issue came up. do you know what came of it? >> they haven't said anything. but there was a vague agreement not to even gang in commercial espionage which the chinese have already violated. they know they have 15 more months of this administration and they are going to take advantage of it. bill: donald trump recalling his days as a young man trying to make it in the big city. we'll explain. martha: in new york, k.c., they are getting ready for the world series. the new york mets coming into this series on fire. bill: we are watching a hearing closely in the senate after reports the white house is weighing sending a small special ops force closer to the front line. here his defense secretary ash carter from a moment ago. >> from the sky above we expect to intensify our air campaign including addition all of s. and co-leg aircraft to target isil. this will include more strikes against high-value targets. also its oil enterprise which is a critical pillar of it infrastructure. bill: this comes a week after the first american was killed. a stalemate against isis. it's been that way for months. >> it has not been easy for me. i started off in brooklyn. my father gave me a small loan of $1 million and i had to pay him back with interest. but a million isn't have much compared to what i built. martha: the republican candidate trying to recall tough times with money. rich lowry is editor of "the national review" and a fox news contributor. rich, how much did your dad lend you? >> not nearly a million dollars if anything. he gave me $10 once to go to movie theater as a kid. brook speaks about brooklyn like it's bangladesh and for most people a million dollar isn't chump ask change. but this gets to an aspect people haven't focused on. his dad was a wealthy and successful developer and there are many advantages that came with that. martha: when you read stories about donald trump and his family and far it, also his children. they have a strong work ethic. while he could have rested on his laurels and lived on the money his dad gave him and invested it. he didn't do that. he has worked hard and his children are also hard workers. we have seen this before where candidate -- it's tough to run for president if you don't have a little something in the nest. but there were knocks before when candidate decided they were in tough straight and they were not. >> $10,000? $10,000 bet? >> i'm not in the betting business. >> we came out of the white house dead broke and in debt. we had no money when we got there and we struggled. martha: these poor people. >> i don't know that i would drag hillary clinton into this. she did come from a middle class upbringing. donald trump will tell you he's worth billions of dollars. he brags about his wealth. i don't think this is the type of thing that will surprise people. i don't think it will hurt hip. i think what he's struggling with is how to play three dimensional chess with carson in a place like iowa and how to get back ahead of him in the polls. i wish i had a small loan of a million dollars. but i couldn't count on my dad for that. martha: just based on the history of this campaign so far. it doesn't seem like something that will hurt him. he has been open about how wealthy he is. when you look at the real estate investments he's made in new york city, comparative live speaking a million dollars isn't a huge amount of money based on the work he has been doing since then. >> his business success hasn't hurt him. it helped him. one of the most amazing aspects of the trump phenomenon is you have this billionaire with this incredible lifestyle with real populace appeal. this won't hurt him in the republican nomination battle if he were to get to a general election. i think it's among the many vulnerability. >> the other great thing about it as he points out often is he's not beholding to anybody because of his money. he's talking about pacs and saying how awful he thinks these pacs are and he feels like they basically own you, brad. >> i think there is something to that. but i agree with rich. these are the types of things that won't hurt him. he has populace appeal and he has this appeal that he attacked the republican establishment. there will be republicans that will have turned off. these comments and his wealth will be something that can be exploited in terms of a general election battle. >> some brand-new polls we'll talk about coming up. rich, thank you very much. brad, thank you. bill: baseball fans get ready game one. kansas city royals. matt half harvey the dark knight. the back cover the new york post reading tonight, the night. -- knight. for the mets the first time since 2000, they lost them. it starts at 8:07 on fox the big network. the royals won in '85 and the mets in '86. martha: i remember new york going crazy. so everybody is going to be watching these games. bill: you will lose your tv for two weeks. martha: if you dress up like harvey you can say i'm the dark knight. firefighters racing against the clock after a plane crashes in south florida. we'll tell you what they did to try to save those inside. bill: president obama has been vowing to lower the cost of obamacare. the new numbers that will stun you in some states ahead. america has led the world and it is a more peaceful world when we're engaged the right way. we do not have to be the world's policeman. we have to be the world's leader. we have to stand for the values of freedom. who's going to take care of the christians that are being eliminated in the middle east? but for the united states, who? who's going to stand up for the dissidents inside of iran that are brutalized each and every day? but for the united states, who? who's going to take care of israel and support them - our greatest ally in the middle east? but for the united states, no one - no one is capable of doing this. the united states has the capability of doing this, and it's in our economic and national security interest that we do it. i will be that kind of president and i hope you want that kind of president for our country going forward. announcer: right to rise usa is responsible for the content of this message. you get used to sweaty odors you think it smells fine, but your passengers smell this... eliminate odors you've gone noseblind to for up to 30 days with the febreze car vent clip break out the febreze, and [inhale/exhale mnemonic] breathe happy. martha: a jar scene after a small plane crash in the florida everglade. all three were injured but miraculously you will three survived. one person walking away with reportedly nothing more than blood on his face. no word on what cause that plane to go down. bill report irs commissioner john kosken getting grilled. here is the commissioner on changes made so far. >> we discovered it was a mistake that should not have happened and it did not help our response to the investigation. when we have a document protection and retention request, you can't rely on sending it out from the top in a large organization of 85,000 employees and assume it will be accurately transmitted to the bottom. what did you learn after the department of justice says we'll not pursue charges. >> that was disappointing but it shouldn't come as any big surprise, this is the obama justice department. what the commissioner is going to say, this is a management issue. it's more than that. it's not just bad management and poor judgment. this is a cultural issue weren't irs where they have people who bleach they have this power over the american people. and we believe what has to happen is a complete culture change there and it starts with putting in place a taxpayer bill of rights. senator grassley and i introduced legislation that would require irs to treat taxpayers the way they deserve. bill: catherine engelbrect was on our program yesterday, she sound defenseless. she said the government polices itself. and the only way you can fight back is by wing an election a year from november. what do you think about that reaction from an everyday american. >> unfortunately that's the way a lot of hard-working taxpayers feel. 600 years are the number of the years they were delayed in terms their application for that status because of the targeting at the irs. there has to be a cultural change. if the ranking member on the senate finance committee ranked this as a bureaucratic dysfunction. that's true, but it's not enough. we believe this agency has to go through a change. we need a taxpayer bill of rights. running amok and doing the things this agency was responsible for the last several years. >> what koskinen is saying is it wasn't -- it was poor judgment. >> this agency need a top-down change in the culture. it's got to be changed and we intend to get at that. >> so you have disagree with the department of justice and its decision not to prosecute lerner. charges should have been presented? >> a couple things. this is an obama justice department which failed to prosecute in the past whether it's fast and furious or the wait times at the va. but it's hard to prove intend when mysteriously loi lois lerns emails all disappeared. that's an important part of being able to prosecute that case. there was terrible things that happened at the irs, they need to be held responsible for and coming up and saying it was incompetence and bad judgment, it doesn't solve the problem for people who were harmed. bill: taxpayer bill of rights. do you have democratic support? >> not at the moment. this agency this desperate need reform. the only way to get at that is to put in place a taxpayer bill of rights. we need top change the culture top down. bill: one last comment before we get to the period at the end of the sentence. we got it. senator, finish you have. >> i think the taxpayer beautiful rights is something that needs to move. we need top-down reform at the irs and the american people need to be protected from bad behavior by the agency that has control over their lives. martha: disturbing video raised a lot of questions about what was going on here. watch this. a police officer body slammed and dragged a teenaged girl as the class looks on. the explanation we are hearing now for his behavior. >> thinking about what could have led up to that and what she could have done to warrant that response. there is nothing i can put my finger on. active management can tap global insights. active management can take calculated risks. active management can seek to outperform. because active investment management isn't reactive. it's active. that's the power of active management. does your mouth often feel dry? multiple medications, a dry mouth can be a side effect of many medications. but it can also lead to tooth decay and bad breath. that's why there's biotene, available as an oral rinse, toothpaste, spray or gel. biotene can provide soothing relief and it helps keep your mouth healthy too. remember, while your medication is doing you good, a dry mouth isn't. biotene, for people who suffer from a dry mouth. bill: the south china sea. a u.s. navy ship was followed at a safe distance by the chinese in the south china sea. a trolts in the area said to increase. it was by vietnam and the philippines. the chinese are building temporary island? how would you characterize that? martha: pretty permanent. bill: this territory is claimed by half a dozen countries. martha: shock video out of south carolina shows a school security officer throwing a high school student from her desk and dragging her out of the classroom. it happened while the teacher and no doubt fellow frightened student watched. what's the reaction been to this video and this incident? >> different people can watch this same video and have different reactions. the director of the aclu is calling it an egregious use of force. but others point out the deputy was trying to control a student who was being disruptive in class. authorities will look at what led up to the incident. >> the student was candidate to leave the class by the teacher and the assistant principal as well. then the officer was called to remove the student. the student refused and the officer acted like you see on the video. reporter: it happened in spring valley high school outside the columbia city limit. the columbia mayor is weighing in. he tweeted, this is a child and i find it holy unacceptable. this need to be dealt with quickly and transparently. martha: what's going to happen to this deputy. reporter: this officer in question has been placed on administrative leave pending investigation. the richland school district is barring him from setting foot on school property while the incident is under investigation. the school district and the richland sheriff's office are look into what happened and trying to determine whether this department acted properly given what was going on with this student in this classroom, martha. bill: dr. ben carson surges to the top of the national poll for the first time. what do you make of the numbers? donald trump reacts. martha: jeb bush turning his campaign into a family affair. a. you had some blocks and you had major thoroughfares and corridors that were just totally pitch black. those things had to change. we wanted to restore our lighting system in the city. you can have the greatest dreams in the world, . (0209fox555a.ecl) the public lighting authority had a hard time of finding a bank. citi did not run away from the table like some other bankers did. citi had the strength to help us go to the credit markets and raise the money. it's a brighter day in detroit. people can see better when they're out doing their tasks, young people are moving back in town, the kids are feeling safer while they walk to school. and folks are making investments and the community is moving forward. 40% of the lights were out, but they're not out for long.they're coming back. . . martha: right now we're waiting for comments by house republican leaders who cut a two-year budget deal with the white house. the tentative agreement prevents a partial shutdown of the government and allows us to pay our bills. we're watching this. there is controversy over this issue. we'll bring you back more information when they get to that podium. in the meantime, a new frontrunner in the race for the republican nomination today. dr. ben carson, for the very first time, is the person who is leading in a national poll in this race. and it comes just one day before the next gop debate as they get ready to brush up on their talking points and get up there behind the podium tomorrow evening. welcome, everybody, to brand new hour of "america's newsroom." i'm martha maccallum. bill: i'm bill hemmer. good morning. republican candidates ready to take the stage for third debate tomorrow night in colorado. most of the attention will focus on two front-runners, that is dr. carson and donald trump. in a brand new national poll, as some folks wondering whether or not carson is having a breakout moment. martha: "new york times/cbs" poll gives carson a four-point edge as you look at that, but the margin of error is plus or minus six we should point out. trump is 26%. they are four points apart. steep decline for the next three, rubio at eight, bush at seven and fiorina, at seven as they struggle to get out of those numbers. chris stirewalt, fox nice digital editor. food morning, chris. trump, first time since july he trump is not in first place. what is the catalyst here? >> this is first time he has not been in first place. one poll from "investor's business daily" i think it was that came out earlier. we said is this outlyer it showed carson in the lead. is this outlyer. trump showed other strength in polling. this is carson back in the lead. we don't care particularly who is in the lead of a poll when we're still 97 days out from the iowa caucuses. we care about the trend and trend in this poll and other polls, carson has forward momentum. in this poll and other recent polls donald trump is losing ground. not just that carson is rising. it is trump is on a downward trajectory, down i believe five points since his, the last installment of this poll. martha: yee. >> what we see is that it tends to be, i think, a problem with female voters and problems with evangelical christians who make up enormous bloc of the republican party. martha: what is so fascinating here, to watch how trump will respond to this. we're starting to see some of it. he says when i get punched i get counterattacked. he is getting a little bit of a punch from the poll numbers. over last month down 5% for trump, up 5% for carson in this poll. so here's a little bit, we're starting to get a sense how he will go after ben carson. here he is this morning on another network. let's listen to that. >> a lot of things will come out like, ben cast, he was pro-abortion not so long ago as everybody has told me. i don't know personally but that is what i'm told. i've been told. all of sudden he is so hard on abortion, under no circumstances can there be no exceptions. that is unusual stance. i think people will look at that they will look at lots of other things, what happened in hospitals. what he was working on and a lot of things i hear. i just don't actually get it. martha: hmmm. what do you make of all that? there is a lot in there. >> that's a pretty rough practice of politics. it is nasty business. it is what you do if you want to besmirch your opponent but then not take responsibility for it. you attack him, but say, i'm just asking questions. he did the same thing. ben carson is a member of a protestant denomination that is fundamentalist in its reading and interpretation of the bible and donald trump over the weekend touted his own presbyterianism. said it was middle of the road faith but he was just asking questions whether ben carson's fundamentalist reading of the bible was what it was. i'm just asking questions. so trump is trying to have it both ways. he wants to besmirch carson and attack him even though carson is making a point not to punch back with trump. he is trying to stay nice. trump is bashing carson but not taking responsibility for it. this is the biggest problem for donald trump. beats up jeb bush. republican party dislikes jeb bush broadly. you can't hit him too hard. they think he is indeserving the nomination, a big part of the party does. we see the conditi jeb bush's campaign today. they loved it. the crowds roared. when you do it to ben carson, doctor nice guy, brain surgeon, inspiring story, cuba gooding, jr., played minimum in the movie, when you do that people don't like it. martha: thighs guys are outsiders. at one time he suggested i might run on same ticket with him. i might run on the same ticket with him. they seemed to enjoying number one and two spot. when the numbers flip donald trump doesn't like it. he put out something like happened at a hospital statements which as you point out is some pretty difficult politics. we'll see. we'll look more look at internals on numbers coming up with karl rove in a little bit. chris, great to see you. >> you bet. bill: 99 days to iowa. seems like a long time. it will be here before you know it. martha: a lot can happen in 99 days. bill: as you know, martha, iowa voters can be very different from new hampshire voters and very different from south carolina as well. hold on. we see where we're going soon. here is where we're going. fox news alert. chinese warships issuing a warning to u.s. navy ship as it sails near a group of artificial and disputed islands. the guide good missile -- guided missile destroyer passed 12 miles from the spratly islands. they insist are international waters. chinese defense ministry says the military will take all steps to protect their interests. senior foreign affairs correspondent, greg palkot watching about this with more. what is china blaming on this? reporter: bill, strong words coming from china. it went on to say that u.s. is threatening its security interests, even damaging regional peace in that area. what actually happened, according to a defense official, confirming to fox news, that the uss lassen, a destroyer sailed within the 12 miles of the subi reef in the south china sea which china claims is its waters. the u.s. says no. that is one of the reefs in the area china is artificially building up into islands. according to security experts constructing airstrips and military features. this is broader chinese claim on much of that sea. for its part the pentagon tells fox, the u.s. destroyer was conducting routine operations and exercising its freedom of navigation. the action by some experts is seen as pivotal. the u.s. long been concerned about what seems to be a chinese land and sea grab. they have done some fly-bys of the territory. first time they're taking it to the sea. bill? bill: what is the next step for us? what are we going to do, greg? reporter: u.s. officials are saying couple things. however provocative china will look at u.s. actions there will be more according to the pentagon. an official quoting this is first in series of freedom of navigation exercises aimed attesting china's territorial claims. in addition, there are some u.s. and china meetings next month. bound to be some more tough talk of the real fear according to experts this could blow up in into a real military faceoff. china claims it will resolutely respond to any deliberate provocations. also says, in addition to warning of this destroyer, it was tailing it, flashpoint asia. back to you. bill: thank you, greg palkot watching every move of that story from london. thanks. martha: new violence breaking out in the streets of israel. [gunfire] seems more and more familiar every day. a group of young palestinians in this scene hurling rocks and ieds at police on the outskirts of hebron in the west bank. this chaos breaking out after the 19-year-old palestinian man was killed in clashes with police just one day earlier. all latest in recent spike of violence between israelis and palestinians. bill: not settled down yet, has it? breaking news in the fight against isis. defense secretary ash carter testifying at this hour on the hill. the pentagon said to be considering plans to expand the role of u.s. forces on the ground in iraq. and in syria. we'll talk to general jack keane about all that today. martha: a lot of talk about jeb bush today as well as he fights to turn his campaign around bringing in two former presidents he is related to. his dad and his brother. so can they put their heads together and make this work or will it backfire? karl rove coming up on that. bill: hollywood director quentin tarantino facing backlash darking part in a protest of against police in america. should people boycott his movies. >> i don't know who appointed mr. tarantino as advocate for police. his movies are very violent. being antipolice is just not productive. the people who get hurt are the public when tease things are done. where you come from. we didn't really have anything, you know. but, we made do. vo: know you can craft an investment plan as strong as your values. al, how you doing. hey, mr. hamilton. vo: know that together you can establish a meaningful legacy. with the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc wealth management team. that's a good thing, eligible for medicare? 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[inaudible] bill: kevin mccarthy giving kudos to a man he has grown quite close to, house speaker john boehner. if all goes as planned, the vote on budget tomorrow and the vote on speakership on thursday, and that will be paul ryan. so a lot to come on this in the coming days. 15 minutes now past the hour. ♪ martha: back to election news here as jeb bush tries to revive his campaign after the family sat down and met with donors who no doubt some of them are a bit concerned about these numbers. he is taking special aim now as a result of that meeting with two of his rivals, donald trump and going after marco rubio as well who they clearly see as a potential threat. these are the brand new national poll numbers. and they put jeb bush in a virtual tie for third place. all of these folks in single digits right now, sandwiched between marco rubio and carly fiorina. they have got a day before the next debate where they hope to emerge, all of them, with some stronger numbers. karl rove former senior advisor, deputy chief of staff to president george w. bush and he is also a fox news contributor. good to have you here this morning, karl. >> thank you, martha. martha: so obviously the bush camp is concerned, there have been stories this week about 41 saying he just doesn't understand what is going on with this race. everybody tout that jeb would be doing much better at this point in the race but you know, early on jeb bush talked so much, i'm my own man. the jeb with the exclamation point and no bush on there. some would say now that there is trouble, he is bringing in dad, his brother, his mother was also part of the meeting according to the reports. is that a good move? >> well it was a meeting with his fund-raisers, many whom helped raise money for his father and his brother. many were floridians who were focused on jeb but look, this was a sort of, encourage the troops, fire up the fund-raisers and that in an off the record session pretty good idea i think to bring in two of the most, three of the most popular people in the republican party today. look, george h.w. bush is revered. he is 91 years old. he is past politics. doing this out of love of son and love of country you about he is respected figure inside republican party. you remember the second debate best line much the night, jeb impulsively of his brother, he kept us safe. i had friends sitting in audience reagan library, people all different camps immediately spontaneously cheered his response to trump. president bush 43 is also popular inside of republican party. probably a useful thing to have him fire up people who are raising money. martha: what is the mind-set at this point? when you look at these numbers and you have carson and trump trading spots at least according to one national poll for first and second, what we're looking at, but you know these other folks who everybody thought were strong, deep bench of the republican party are just mired, they're not getting anywhere at all, karl? does anything change that. >> well, sure there is and you see it in the poll this morning. i agree with what chris stirewalt said earlier this is one poll. you shouldn't sort of say trump is in second place, carson first but there is an interesting number in there reflected in other recent polls. seven out of 10 people in the "cbs/new york times poll" say it's too early to make a decision. recent poll said 64% of the people side it is too early to make a decision. many people who made a decision are not stuck on their decision. trump was in the "cbs/new york times poll," only put out a couple of these numbers but half the people who said they were for trump, 11% out of 100 said, i made up my mind, i'm nor trump and i'm not going to change my mind. with ben carson in the lead with 2points, five points out of 100, five points said i'm stuck on carson. look, all the people stuck on trump or carson are not necessarily stuck. they're capable of changing. my point the vast number of people, we're sitting here paying attention to it as junkies every single day, but vast majority of people are not paying as much attention as we are, are far more fluid. watching aspect tatetores, capable of changing judgments. martha: absolutely. >> being 100 days out or 98 days out there is so much potential for change. i remember in -- excuse me 1999 feeling really comfortable where we were. remember we lost new hampshire 19 point just 100 days after we were comfortably ahead. martha: 100 days or 99 is a huge amount of time in the life of campaigns. we expect a lot will happen between now and then. there was a slide presentation in this get-together to improve jeb's campaign, it said experience matters. one bullet point, marco is gop obama. they're concerned about marco rubio who edges him out tiny bit in every one of these polls, karl. >> i was not at presentation. i read same article. i don't know how many slides were in the deck and won't make too much out of one line -- martha: jeb bush said as much in many place. >> if i could finish my thought. if i were them i would not think about marco rubio. i would be thinking about jeb bush. sometimes we like to think we can fix a problem by focusing on something else but in reality what this has to do with, for every candidate, the thing that works best for them is not what works badly for somebody else but what works best for them. so i would be focused on what is it that they need to be saying and doing. you got a hint of it in some other slides that were talked about in those articles. they're talking about retooling campaign, put an emphasis humanizing answers to their solutions. humanizing what he did in florida as governor so people get a better handle on how the things that he did and taking on the teachers unions, taking on trial lawyers, taking on the state bureaucracy, helped small business people and helped kids who otherwise wouldn't have good education, i think that is smatter thing to spend time on. if i were them i wouldn't think too much about marco rubio. i would spend most of my time thinking about jeb bush. martha: thank you, karl. good to see you. >> thank you, martha. bill: 20 win past and it was supposed to be the answer to out of control health care costs. now there are new numbers revealing obamacare premiums going up yet again and in some states the increases are stunning. we've got numbers. martha: plus the school bus full of children stranded on a flooded bridge. what happened next. >> on the bus, and she said that there they were sinking, you know. was anybody with them? this is todd hardy. a fitness buff, youth baseball coach-and lung cancer patient. the day i got the diagnosis, i was just shocked. the surgeon in dallas said i needed to have the top left lobe of my lung removed. i wanted to know what my other options were. and i found that at cancer treatment centers of america. at ctca, our experts examine a variety of therapies, treatments and technologies to identify a plan specifically for each patient. my doctor understood that who i am was just as important as what cancer i had. we talked about options. my doctor told me about a robotic surgery that was less invasive. we have excellent technology that allow us to perform very specialized procedures for patients who have lung disease. at ctca, it's all about what you can do. i feel fantastic now. exploring treatment options is at the heart of how we fight cancer. the evolution of cancer care is here. learn more about our treatment options at cancercenter.com/lung. appointments available now. martha: boy, this was a dramatic rescue in louisiana. 20 elementary school students were stranded on a flooded bridge. the bus driver was apparently trying to get through the water when the engine stalled. luckily the driver was able to run to nearby house to call for help. a police pickup truck came to the rescue. look at this scene. witnesses say the bus driver should not have been on that road in the first place. >> i couldn't believe it because no one has ever tried to drive through that water, especially not a school bus with kids on it, not as long as i have lived there. martha: crazy, right? we always hear, do not drive through the high water. thankfully this time, nobody was hurt. bill: the cost for the standard obamacare plan is going higher. this according to new data from the department of health and human services. the price for so-called silver plan, which is the policy most have, expected to jump an average of 7 1/2% next year. melissa francis, co-host of "after the bell" on the fox business network. as always she is money. >> i never get tired of that by the way, hemmer. bill: thank you. and you shouldn't. >> no. bill: last year the increase was 2%. >> right. bill: this time it is three times that. why? >> 7.5%. people at home don't really care about average, they care what it is like where they are. if you look at someplaces it is staggering. arizona is going up 17%. montana, 34%. oklahoma, 35%. tennessee, 23%. you have to remember also, this is in addition to the fact that a lot of people are getting subsidies. 80% of people getting $270 on average from you at home. bill: subsidies are enormous. there are billions of dollars in taxpayer money going to subsidize. >> these higher prices. bill: for obamacare. >> so it's staggering. you look at the rise, that 7 1/2% across the board. i think argument from the other side, proponents, we're talking about numbers, this isn't politics. you look at numbers and cost of dollars to people and service they are getting. they argue the counter factual it would go up so much more if it weren't for obamacare. remember the president threw out there, he promised for average person out there getting health care from their employer that family would save $2500. that was the promise he made. your premiums would immediately go down. that was never mathematically possible. i got in a lot of trouble at the time for trying to point that out. that was never possible you add people and services it would cost less. bill: so the white house would sit here and say, look, the increase is still in the single digits. >> right. bill: so we're keeping it lower than it would have been. does that defense stand up in your view? >> i mean it depends, i don't think it does if you're sitting in oklahoma and your premium goes up 36% next year. when you look at people who had their policy canceled, when you have seen deductibles rise, that doesn't go into this equation. i don't know anyone out there who hasn't seen their deductible jump dramatically. you are paying more. it is hard to compare it what would this be like if this wasn't here. the fact of the matter we're paying more to cover more people. maybe in society that is value we hold. that everybody should have insurance so i'm willing to pay more but that is not how this was presented. bill: one more point, they say 10 million will sign up this year. which is about -- >> those numbers jump around all the time. bill: below expectations what you read here but still bring in a million new customers to the plan. >> i think at this point they had projected it would be 21 million. so we're way off projections had been. you know, it is more people getting on board and more people getting covered. you talk to people with no health insurance than they do now, there is value to that. there is also a price. be honest with the math. bill: covered this a lot on fox business. we'll continue to tap into your knowledge today. >> thank you. bill: the silver plan, that is what 70% of obamacare. >> what most people get. bill: thank you, money. see you at 4:00. >> will do. bill: melissa francis. martha: thanks, guys. we have a fox news alert now. american troops on the ground in syria. that is what the white house is currently deciding. while senators get an update on the fight against isis from the secretary of defense ash carter, they're also hearing this morning from the new chairman of the join chiefs. plus, 30 years and four owners later, a man is reunited with his beloved 1968 camaro, stolen from him decades ago! he is here when we come back. ♪ bill: get to this fox news alert happening right now in washington. hearings on our hill about national security as the fight against isis drags on and right now is at a stalemate. defense secretary ash carter fielding questions about isis from the senate armed services committee as the white house considers a plan to take more aggressive action in iraq and put american boots on the ground in syria for the first time. retired four-star general, chairman of institute for study of war, fox news military analyst, general jack keane with me in studio. good morning to you. >> good morning, bill. bill: we've been in and out of syria with more strike forces. this would be more permanent. go into town of raqqa in eastern syria and town of ramadi in western iraq. would you support that? >> absolutely. raqqa is the capital of isis in islamic state, it is their center of gravity. what we put on the ground is special forces, army special forces very similar to what we did back in afghanistan in 2001 when we had special forces with northern alliance. they used air power very effectively to defeat the taliban in two or three weeks. this is a right step. it is not enough to turn the tide but a step in the right direction for sure. bill: when ramadi fell, that seemed to get the attention of a lot of people in washington. that was after a long hard-fought battle to make it secure and calm and that is no longer happening now. the president can take suggestions. he can either act or decide not to. what do you think he will do? >> i think he knows something has to change because if we stay on the current path, i mean, we're not just in a stalemate. we're not winning. in fact we're losing of the current strategy can not defeat isis in iraq and in syria yet that is the goal the president has assigned us. he has to make changes. this is incremental change in my judgment. not decisive in of itself but a step in the right direction. bill: you're hearing a lot of talk about a no-fly zone. it is hot on the campaign trail, republicans and democrats alike. senator mccain was asking ash carter about this in last few minutes. would require a lot of manpower to secure an area like this. this is how the exchange went. >> it is not a new issue. >> it is not a new issue. it is a substantial military operation. >> seems you should have a position on it. >> we have not recommended that. we analyzed it. >> so you do not support, you do not agree with general petraeus and former secretary gates and secretary clinton? >> we do not have a concept of operations of no-fly zone. >> after all these years we don't have concept operation. >> that we're prepared to recommend. >> senator reed. bill: the key in there i believe is, when he said substantial. it requires a lot of forces on the ground to secure this area. and that appears to be a lot greater than the recommendations for what our discussion would be, how you go after the towns in raqqa and ramadi. how do you see it? >> the no-fly zone would be put in an area where regime forces are attacking syrian people and also the rebel forces. that would permit the people to move into those areas and to be shielded. to protect them in that area you need some kind of a ground force. what would be recommended is the moderate syrian rebels to do that then how much of that do you need to protect them. that is number one. up number two, you have to have some air patrols flying every single day to make certain that no one will violate the airspace to bomb those areas. that is what secretary carter is referring to. people on the ground to protect the refugees that would be in that no-fly zone area, and also air power to protect the entire area. bill: we don't know what the president ultimately will decide, so we wait for that. he already changed strategy in afghanistan. you can see the dire situation here playing out with isis. you can see the floods, tens of thousands flowing into eastern europe at the moment and parts further west. did vladmir putin force his hand? >> well i think russia certainly, this military intervention, first time in 35 years, the strategic implications of what russia is doing in the middle east are pretty profound. he is certainly taking advantage what i think has been u.s. disengagement in the middle east. yeah, to answer your question. certainly it is making him reevaluate, you put your finger on it though. when ramadi fell that really did get everyone's attention because people thought we were doing better than what we were. we had taken the town of tikrit if you recall. that seemed to be progress. then the capital of anbar province fell to isis and still holding on to it as they are mosul. something must be done. bill: very soon will be in the hands of the president to make a call as commander-in-chief. general jack keane, thank you. here in new york. martha. martha: now our friend and contributor journalist mary catherine ham returning to fox news for her first interview since the death of her dear husband. white house staffer jake brewer was killed last month when his bicycle was hit by a car during a charity bike ride. mary catherine opening up last night to greta van susteren. watch. >> he was one hell of a human being. it is hard to explain all that he was because he did so many things and he was one much these people who might have been obnoxiously good at everything except that he was such a cool guy and such a nice guy. really was driven to help other people all the time. i think he knew that all of his talents were blessings and that they were given to him, and that he needed to use them in service of others. that was something that drove him. it is how he fit in 70 years of life in 34 years which is one thing i'm really thankful for. martha: she was so poised and so together and spoke so beautifully about her husband and she, and grif jenkins ran and walked in the 10-k, the marine 10-k. she is eight months pregnant with her second child. watching her talk about this from the beginning, from the day that it happened, just so inspiring for anybody who is going through the grieving process which is extraordinarily hard, she is really incredible. bill: i have such admiration for the strength she has shown publicly. as a colleague and a friend you're not quite sure what appropriate moment is to reach out and and extend that strength to her but, mk, you have a huge fox family here that is behind you 1000%. we admire your courage and we are going to be with you for a very long time. martha: absolutely. we wish you well, mary catherine. all the best. bill: 20 minutes before the hour. the mystery deepens surrounding the shroud of turin believed by millions to be the burial shroud of jesus. what dna testing now reveals about that, we'll tell you. martha: now for something completely different. quentin tarantino sparking new outrage over his comments during an anti-police protest. is the current climate making it harder for the police to do their job? >> the climate that the media has fostered and a lot of these liberal groups have fostered gives the police the kind of feeling that if they do anything out of the ordinary, there is going to be 27 citizens with video cameras looking for a gotcha moment with them. ♪ martha: solemn day ever mourning for a new york city police officer who was killed in the line of duty. a wake being held today for officer randolph holder. he died after being shot in the head by a suspect and his funeral will be tomorrow in the city. meanwhile here in new york the police union is calling for boycott of movies by quentin tarantino after the director took part in a anti-police protest just days after officer holder was killed. former new york city police commissioner telling greta van susteren that this is kind of environment that encourages criminals and makes many officers somewhat reluctant at times to do their duty. >> i don't know who appointed mr. tarantino an advocate against police but fact is what he did was very irresponsible. his movies are very violent. being anti-police is just not productive. and the people who get hurt are the public, when these things are done. martha: joined by leslie marshall, syndicated radio talk show host and blogger for the huff "washington post." david webb, siriusxm patriot, come himmist for "the hill." both are fox news contributors. good to have you both here. it is pretty, tasteless and outrageous that many would say that quentin tarantino would stand up at a parade and protest in the city and stand in front of a podium that says rise up, stop police terror and talked about the violence that he sees being done on the part of police officers in this city when this police officer's body has not yet been laid to rest. leslie what do you think. >> well, first of all this protest was planned weeks before this officer lost his life. obviously it's tear, when anyone, especially police officers lose their life in the line of duty. secondly, being here in los angeles and being a part of an industry that, a lot of people benefit from, that have violence like quentin tarantino, i think some people forget that is not the real world. that's fantasy. and quentin tarantino, may profit from that, he has every right to his personal opinion. he has every right via the first amendment to march with these people. and people have every right to see or not see his movies. i don't think we need to call for a boycott. we have that power with our dollars every time we decide what we're going to do on friday or saturday night, whatever movie we want to see or download from netflix. martha: anybody has the freedom to call for boycott if they feel like that is the thing to do. people make their decision whether or not they want to follow along with it. >> sure. martha: you contrast what quentin tarantino did, taking part in the protest what the fbi director james comey says and he is one -- he spends time with police officers, with agents. he wants to know what is going on the ground. so that is what he did in this instance. here is what he was told. let's play it. >> i spoke to officers privately in one big city precinct who described being surrounded by young people with mobile phones held high, taunting them whether they get out of their cars. they said to me, we feel under siege, we don't feel like much getting out of our cars. martha: david webb? >> first, martha, to leslie's point, quentin tarantino went to rally planned weeks ago but his comments weren't set in stone weeks ago. he said what he said. the left likes to equivocate especially elitist in hollywood, they don't equivocate when a black man, who is police officer, either black or blue light didn't matter. boycott up to the people. tarantino is another elitist hollywood person. when it comes to james comey we should also bring in rahm emanuel and attorney general loretta lynch weeks ago in a meeting they thought were no reporters talking about issues in chicago. i have an alert in my hand here, issued by the fbi for a national anarchist group, the national liberation militia. calling for halloween-style attacks, false calls. i have a friend who sends me call by, to ems dispatcher sunday night three a.m., a fake call cop shot in the head. let's not get ourselves, fbi director has more credibility than josh ernest, this president or quentin tarantino, than any of them when you look at reality on the ground police officers are seen as the opponents or enemies by some, and you know, there are issues to be dealt with in the police lines and police forces, we deal with that. but this is becoming a pervasive narrative by the least, elitists, progress sieve democrat president obama who goes to chicago but doesn't address all the lives that matter, or crime that matters. martha: how helpful would that be, you know, you hear it from the fbi director and it is a different tone than what we've heard from the president on this, leslie? how powerful would it be to hear something like that from the president? >> well, first of all, even mr. comey has admitted there is no research that backs up what he said in his discussion, with those officers in that city. what we do research in research -- martha: do you think that is not true, leslie. do you think it is not true given everything that has been happening many police officers are reluctant or nervous about getting out of their cars with people taking videos? >> you know what? honestly the police officers that i have spoken with not only here in los angeles with increase in violent crime within our officer but throughout the country are very brave people who sign up to put their lives on the line. martha: of course they are. >> they are out there to serve and to protect and they're not afraid to get out of their car because some college kids are going to snap their pictures because they have nothing to hide. >> that is not what he is saying. talking about the atmosphere. >> they have a proper way to be trained. >> david, is anyone fearful, more fearful in this climate? i would imagine some are. i think vast majority are professionals. martha: they need the support of their community and need support of the -- >> they do. martha: the people who count on them to protect their lives. >> with all due respect to leslie, martha, leslie is living in fantasy land. martha: we can't hear anything right now. hold on, david. we're almost out of time, leslie. real quick. >> martha, to your point the president standing up saying, echoing what the fbi director has said, i don't really feel makes a difference. i really -- >> when he speaks makes a difference, when he doesn't speak makes a difference? leslie, that is fantasy. reality is in this country we've got a very pervasive environment of antipolice, which is not good. over 800,000 cops in this country. most of them, 99% of do their jobs daily, even in l.a. in your city. martha: we'll be up against a hard break. >> they say arrests made without use of force for the most part. martha: thank you very much, guys. good to have you here. >> thank you, martha. bill: stolen car back with its owner 34 years after it was taken. someone was taking really good care of her. how did police find the original owners? you will find out next. >> it is kind of like the new girl at the dance. you just don't know how to act around this car. hey, how's the college visit? you remembered. it's good. does it make the short list? you remembered that too. yea, i'm afraid so. knowing our clients personally is what we do. it's okay. this is what we've been planning for. thanks, bye. and with over 13,000 financial advisors, we do it a lot. it's why edward jones is the big company that doesn't act that way. tand that's what we're doings to chat xfinity.rself, we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. >> i'm jon scott. six minutes away on "happening now," he was frontrunner for gop nomination. now jeb bush is running way behind in the polls. former florida governor is planning a change in strategy ahead of the next republican debate. can he recover? we'll talk to his campaign manager. a new system will allow unmanned air traffic control towers to guide planes in and out of airports. with all the near-misses in the skies is automation safe? we'll get into it, "happening now." bill: more than 30 years ago a college student in ohio had his car stolen. a 1968 chevy camaro, one of the great muscle cars of all time. he and his father spent a year restoring car before it disappeared. half a decade later, phone rings. police found the can mario, today 34 years later it is back in the garage where it belongs. ron and his father are with me now. good morning to you. >> good morning, bill. bill: ron, 1981, in college student, working grocery store. you're driving by this car every day. man i want to own that thing. so you buy it and restore 9% of the chrome on the car. you park it near a pole in the parking lot at a kroger's in northeastern ohio and it is gone. what do you do in the weeks after that. >> i was crushed. i spent the better part of several weeks, maybe months just looking everywhere for that car. someone would say, have you looked here? we heard stolen cars are often times taken here. i looked everywhere. i assume it was taken apart and parts were sold. bill: you were wrong too. a year ago, bob, you got a call from police. they tell you there were four different owners of this car and they found it in delaware. what did they tell you? >> well, they asked me if i had owned a car in 1982, which i did. and, they told me that they found the car in the state of delaware where they, when you purchase a vehicle there, they check the vin number with the title number and they noticed that they weren't together with that -- bill: like old school database. bottom -- got all the technology, bob and they find it with old paperwork. ron, you said it is like the new girl at the dance. you're not quite sure to act around her. how does it feel. >> that's true. it is much nicer than the car someone stole over 30 years ago. you don't know how to act around it. should you drive it? should you just look at it? i think its beautiful. bill: that's cool. enjoy the ride, okay, fellows. >> thank you. bill: thank you, ron. well-done. back after this. the did you know that good nutrition is critical for brain health? brain food, hmmm. ensure has b vitamins that help support brain health - now that's smart nutrition. ensure's complete balanced nutrition has 26 vitamins and minerals and 9 grams of protein. ensure. take life in. bill: so, maccallum, what was your favorite car you owned as a kid? martha: well, i had a friend who had a camaro like that one, and my dad had an mg. we always liked to have old convertibles. more on that later. have a nice day, everybody. bye-bye. ♪ ♪ jon: well, lawmakers reach a deal to solve two of the thorniest issues facing congress, but it means spending more of your tax dollars, i'm jon scott. jenna: i'm jenna lee, and welcome to "happening now." a looming government shutdown prompting lawmakers to act. the tentative deal will increase the bar limit.