In august from a year ago is americans pay more for everything from electricity to shelter to food with Grocery Prices seeing their largest 12 month increase since 1979 democrats celebrating unless with white house heralding the passage of their inflation reduction act. The president claiming measures cutting costs for american families. The bill cut cost for families, help reduce inflation at the Kitchen Table because thats what they look at, how much are they monthly bills and how much they pay for necessities gave Breathing Room as my dad would say. Paul Wall Street Journal columnist dan henninger, Kim Strassel And Mary and a stray zia ogrady. Why do you think the Financial Markets and investors were caught and surprised by the Inflation Number . I think the main thing right here as Milton Friedman said effects of Monetary Policy give us a long variable lacks so when you have the feds tightening the responsibly economy will take a while to feed and so thats one problem and i think the other is the fed probably hasnt gone far enough yet. The rate that matters here is the terminal rate, where this will end. Now the market is starting to price in a little over 4 but until now the market has been expecting this would be easier to solve and i think the numbers we saw last week tell us it will be tough. Paul dan, what your forecast here . Is the fed going to do 75 basis points in september or 100 as some suggest . Where you think the fed will go . Is a 4 or more . I think 75 basis points rather than 100. The important thing is the fed is completely targeted on reducing inflation. As opposed to the Biden White House which is completely politicized the subject of inflation, they are talking about two different subjects. The white house is just all about transferring money to people and they are not transferring that much money with this immediately in the short term, its mostly longterm subsidies and pay payments. The fed is obviously laser focused on getting inflation down, certainly below wage increases people are getting because inflation at this level away peoples wage increases so i think it will continue so long as Price Increases keep happening so long as the market getting bad news is it did this week, the fedex news decline in delivery suggesting online orders are falling off, it was a shocker. We were given to believe people were spending money, it suggests maybe they are not. I think we will get 75 basis points. Paul i guess theres good news for the white house in the fall in the last couple months Gasoline Prices, averaging 5 a gallon for a while nationwide and now 3. 70. The white house clearly is touting this as a big victory, the results of its policies. I think it has more to do with global issues and Global Demand and supply but nonetheless, how big a deal as gas prices and how much does undercut the damage politically from overall inflation . The reality is even as gas prices have fallen, they are significantly higher than when mr. Biden was inaugurated, something the white house didnt mention, consumers certainly no. If you look at the Inflation Numbers it was the drop in gas prices that kept it from being even higher and if you exclude that, other core prices were persistently driven by inflation and those of the numbers americans put in their pocketbook overall, the Grocery Prices, shelter prices, food and clothing prices, going out to eat services, those remain troublesome high and maybe even growing higher so they got a bit of a reprieve because of gas prices the future months that may not happen in the numbers could look even worse. Paul the fedex ceo saying it looks like we will have a global recession. We know europe is pretty much already in recession, chinas not doing great. The u. S. Not yet seemingly in recession, its hard to say exactly. How do you see the forecast . Are we at minimum going to skirt the edges of recession . Will the damage be deeper . Weve said all along the only way you can bring down inflation after so many years of too much monetary accommodation is tighten Financial Market conditions and thats whats happening right now. As that happens, it will impact demand. Thats one reason Gasoline Prices are coming down is Demand Destruction but it will impact earnings and thats what we see with fedex so what the fed is trying to do is let the air out of the bubble and i think its pretty clear we will have a recession, the big debate now is there are recessions and there are recessions so how deep will it go . Part of it has to do with how long the fed will have to keep Interest Rates at an elevated level to bring out the inflation. Thats the unknown here. Paul when we come back, 22 republican governors call onti President Biden to withdrawrt student loan e given us plan. Former indiana governor Andfu Purdue Universittuy president m. Daniels about runway College Costs and failed federal student loan system. Should new astepro allergy. No Allergy Spray is faster. Its and astepro is the first and only 24hour steroid free Allergy Spray. Now without a prescription. Astepro and go. Twentytwo republican governors sent a letter to President Biden this week asking him to withdraw his plan to cancel up to 20000 in debt for Student Loan Borrowers and get rewards the rich and punishes the poor. The letter comes us the two cost of the plan comes into focus with one estimate putting the price take at 1 trillion. Earlier i spoke to indiana governor and Purdue University president Mitch Daniels about the president plan and what he calls the bankrupt federal student loan system. Welcome, appreciate your coming in. You wrote recently for us the student loan policy a flawed concept, botched execution draped in duplicity. Strong words. Why dont you elaborate on that . I think from the outset it was a mistake for the risk on the federal tax payer, none of the schools which are to be like ours, ought to be prepared to stand behind both the ability and willingness of graduates to live up to their debt obligations. I think from the execution you will theres one mistake after another, a huge one was the federal government taking it over in 2010 promising heres one of the elements that i think was less than truthful, promising it would earn a profit for taxpayers when its turned into colossal loss. I think its one of the most unfortunate Public Policy endeavors weve seen. Not saying it was never a good idea to help young people achieve Higher Education but there were better ways, more honest ways more physically responsible ways. Paul was the Role Colleges and universities have played here . Youve been in politics, you know why politicians did this, they are buying both but colleges and universities have gone into this, a lot of people suspect by raising their tuition. It is that the role they played . It is, a responsive role. Its been well documented now thoroughly researched, the only doubt is the degree to which colleges have pocketed a percentage of any increase in subsidies. And made it easier for them to raise prices, at least until recently little or no, lets call it consumer resistance. Ive told present friends in business for a long time, heres a racket we should have gone into, selling was viewed as a necessity, got to have that college degree, no measure meant of quality, you cant tell which school produces the best education and therefore People Associated Sticker Price with quality so people had total Pricing Power on the federal government and kept infusing the environment more money. They did the human thing and pocketed much of it through their total Pricing Power. Paul Human At Purdue A Decade and youve kept tuition flat which is remarkable with everybody raising them how . I like to claim i confessed in the piece that you folks published, id like to claim we had a wonderful brilliant insights no one else had. No, its simply what one prioritizes. Here we believe it was implicit in our mission, not everyone knows the university is a landgrant school, our assignment from president blinken and those who invented this concept was to spread Higher Education benefits as widely as possible and to us, its meant trying to stay affordable. I will say its proven to be, over time a good business, to because its associated with, the Market Research we do with our students, associated with dramatic gross in our student body, 30 over the last ten years. Number one, fulfilling that mission. Number two, its made it easier through greater revenue to avoid Price Increases. Paul its fascinating. The Student Loan Program cancellation they cost over a trillion dollar overall. The incentives to keep doing this, raising tuition and subsidizing and continuing, theres no reform in the program now, if you were in congress, what would you push to change the policy to we dont have this happen time and again . First suggest overruling executive decisions, we hope some court grants ending so some plaintiff and save the American People and note the same younger generations on the Receiving End of this unbearable debt burden thats where one would start. I do believe there needs to be substantial sharing of any default cost by the school, the diploma should note something about market readiness to be productive and earn ones way in the world, also the character to live up to ones obligations. If it doesnt, to me, its a breach of warranty and there ought to be repercussions from the on the school, not all on the taxpayer. Paul all right, thanks for coming in, its a fascinating idea. We will see of people follow through. Appreciate your coming in. When we come back Chuck Schumer gets his man in New Hampshire. Retire general wins the republican nomination for Senate Republican nomination for Senate Thanks in part to millions spent by democrats. With that strategy backfire p novemberat . Democrats are getting the Senate Opponent they wanted in New Hampshire after Retired General don one the gop nomination tuesday in part to the 3. 2 Million Senate majority Chuck Schumers Political Action committee spent on as boosting candidacy. Democrats poorly spent 19 million across the state in the primaries hopping up socalled republicans they think they can beat in november. New hampshires republican governor chris warning their strategy could backfire. And some of the races they will get they asked for. They are, they going to get what you could call extreme candidates when he in november because people are fed up with inflation and gas prices, i think this will massively backfire on the democrats. Paul we are back with kim strassel and dan henninger. Dan, what do you think about this proposition . Are republicans rallying behind it now that he has the nomination uniting behind him. Could he be right that this will backfire . He certainly could be right thats going to happen. This race in New Hampshire between general doug and current senator, its fascinating. Ill start by noting back in april First University of New Hampshire did a poll, hassan had a one point lead in april when it was teed up as an extremist. Fastforward to now, he won the primary, the first thing he does is disavow the idea the last election was stolen distance between himself and donald trump and now hes pivoting toward running untraditional things like economy and energy production, crime and the rest. Hes pretty articulate about those things. One does have to ask New Hampshire voters will appreciate the Cynicism Pivoting from trump but it looks to me that race will be competitive the governor could be right. Donnie could well end up in the u. S. Senate. Paul hard to get more cynical, democrats trying to get support to win the republican nomination. Lets turn to pennsylvania where John Federman is running Lieutenant Governor against doctor oz, the television position. Hes catching up, he was down for quite a while and making an issue of federmans health and fitness for office after he suffered a stroke a few months back. Is that fair . It is a smart strategy and fair. Voters deserve to see people debate and the reality is federman has been hiding from the people and by doctor oz focusing on this, raising questions about his health, its obviously a Working Strategy because not only are using polls change tighten up but federman has now decided to debate, theres complex questions about the format of the debate, it might be unprecedented it will only happen after i would note Absentee Ballots are going out and people are already voting but this was his hook to get in the news and get attention on his campaign and thats one reason you are seeing things tighten up. Paul federman has his image as the man of the people, he wears a hoodie, note a week where doctor oz portrays as an elite but federman has vulnerabilities in terms of policies. He endorsed medicare for all, hostile to fracking in the past, walking away from those, why doesnt always exploit that . Defunct the police movement, a long history of his advocating pardoning violent criminals. Doctor oz is trying to make an issue out of this but the problem has been getting attention and has less money and less outside support. The hope is now that hes got this in the news, heal pivot to other issues because this is a very progressive candidate whose out of step with pennsylvania, federman. Paul lets turn to Lindsey Graham South Carolina senators proposal for national ban on abortion at 15 weeks. Some republicans arent sure its the right strategy but what you think of that in terms of raw politics of proposing that right now in this election . I dont think much of it. There were pelicans out there having trouble with it. Don bullock New Hampshire and doctor oz in pennsylvania. They are running hard on the issue of abortion. Federman especially in the suburbs of the adelphia was up for grabs. Doctor oz put distance between themselves and Lindsey Graham, its difficult for them to answer is they are both running for the senate but i think senator grahams proposal is going to make life uncomfortable for Senate Candidates out there trying to negotiate their way through sensible policy towards abortion and states that have voters who think should be nuanced policy toward it so it seems like a big mistake on his part. Paul i dont understand the desire to Lindsey Graham and the right to Life Movement to nationalize the Abortion Issue when for years theyve been saying that he go back to the states, but the individual candidates tailor their response to the states. Thats the other problem, it upends the argument conservatives have made for a long time a solid civil argument not too mention the fact that this is constitutionally dubious what hes proposing as well. Paul all right, well see how it plays. Meet for the first time then meet for the first time then star russian president facesgh pquestions over moscows faltering invasion. Chinese president xi jinping and russian president Vladimir Putin met in prison thursday for the First Time Since the start of the ukraine work with putin acknowledging beijing has questions and concerns about the nearly seven month old conflict. The meeting comes in the wake of major Battlefield Setbacks from moscow with Ukrainian Forces making stunning advances in the northeast reclaiming large swaths of territory. Some u. S. Officials say could market Turning Points in the work. Lets bring in seth jones, Senior Vice President at the center for Strategic International studies and author of the book three dangerous men. Russia, china, iran and the rise of irregular warfare. Good to see you. The last time they met or one of the previous times, they said there was no limit to cooperation. It looks like this time there might be some limits, how do you read the Body Language and words coming out of this . Regarding ukraine, the chinese who are worn, xi jinping didnt mention ukraine in his remarks and Vladimir Putin was conciliatory saying he understood the chinese had a range of concerns with how things were going so the chinese provided some assistance in buying oil but not Weapon Systems so the more trouble the russians continue to run into in ukraine, the less likely china will be willing to provide a heavy hand right now. Paul how much trouble is the Russian Military after these markable ukrainian gains . A lot of willynilly retreat by the russians, disarray, no question about it but how much trouble are they in and can they regroup the russians . The russians are in serious trouble losing probably additional territory in luhansk and perhaps donetsk as well as some areas of the south including croissant. There are two types of ukrainian campaigns going on right now, the most obvious one is the conventional counterattack ukrainians conducted. The second is the Guerrilla Operations we see behind russian lines so even today weve seen ieds killing senior russian backed ukrainian officials like Public Officials in several areas, these are improvised explosive devices but overall, the size of territory, this is significant russia appears to have lost is almost the size of the state of connecticut which is a big embarrassment to Vladimir Putin. Paul the russians are fighting back to the extent they are with Missile Attacks on Civilians Infrastructure and sites including power plants and theyve bombed a damn, big flooding. Difficult for ukrainians. Is there any way ukraine can stop that and how can the u. S. Help . There are efforts underway to try to assist in quickly fixing these breaches and dams. The challenge though is the russians still have an exte extensive, both medium and longrange missiles, they can fire them from aircraft and maritime vessels the black sea so it will be a continuing challenge. Paul how should the u. S. Respond . Another 600 million worth of military aid and now announced on friday, is this the time in your view for the u. S. And west to kind of go all in in terms of military support . Gives everything the ukrainians are asking for to be able to see we make further gains and maybe force it into the Negotiating Table in the next two or three months . The Bargain Space is shrinking for putin, his hand is weakening so i think any negotiations in the future are going to be contingent on part where the battlefield of weather picture evolves and the russian hand is getting worse day by day, i go all in on the u. S. Side. I think it means continuing to provide assistance ukrainians are asking for, standoff weapons, i think even longer range high marsh but with the u. S. Has to be careful about is keeping the conflict in ukraine. There have been russian concerns about Ukrainian Forces moving across the border including kharkiv into russian territory. I think that would raise the potential and escalating conflict. The u. S. Will have to encourage ukrainians to be careful around crimea, potential last. As well but i would push the Russian Military, Army In Particular is collapsing at the moment and they are in serious trouble. Paul a minute left but you said be careful of crimea but president zelenskyy of ukraine said the other day he wants to push russia entirely out of ukrainian territory, its not just the donbas also crimea. Its true, it was ukrainian territory. Why should the u. S. Not want him to go there . I think militarily crimea will be a much more difficult area for ukrainians to fight and its surrounded almost entirely by water and the russian navy is well positioned to fire back. Privately anyway, we will have to see what the Military Re Taking of crimea looks like. At the very least i think most of russias positions in the south, east and northeast are vulnerable to retaking territory. Paul all right, thanks for coming in, appreciate it. Governor s of using migrants as political ponds as the battle between the states over immigration heats uphe. Battle over the border heating up this week as democrats accuse republican governors playing politics with peoples lives. Illinois governors of the disaster proclamation wednesday to deal with influx of migrants sent to chicago from texas while Lori Lightfoot accused Governor Greg Abbott manufacturing human crisis. Florida Governor Ron Desantis sent migrants to mothers figure in century citys for complaining think a small fraction of what border towns deal with everyday. Dan henninger, mary ogrady Wall Street Journal Editorial Page writer julian also joined us. In this battle of migrants, what you make of the Credit Complaints repugnance are using people as props . It is a Publicity Stunt but an effective one. 2019 i went to yuma in arizona, a town of about 100,000 and within a six week period, they were taking in 2500 people, they didnt have a budget for it, overwhelming the citys resources and i think democrats for a long time have been accusing Border States and border towns of being anti immigrant, hostile but what i saw was concerned. I think now democrats are seeing when you have influx of people this large is trains resources. Paul and mary, they are complaining in chicago, i think its only been 500 migrants who have made it there and declared an emergency as she suggests, a fraction of what texas deals with all the time but it doesnt seem to make any progress getting democrats to say present biden, we could do something about the border . You are right in the federal problem, not just federal problem in the sense that they allow people to claim asylum and then cross the border and become legal, their existence in the country is legal because they are under the banner of claiming asylum but the federal government has a role here resettling these people. We have a Refugee Resettlement program and if they treat these people as refugees, they should use resettlement as part of the tools they have to distribute them around the country rather than have all the pressure in texas. Paul what about the stunt or Governor Desantis, this political gambit to get 50 migrants or so on a plane sent to an island off the coast of massachusetts, from the reporting, migrants didnt know where they were going. I guess there will be work is needed in Marthas Vineyard although legally they are supposed to wait 180 days before they can actually work. How you think this will play politically . Its denounced by the white house, its cool and explicated. And thats the issue the democrats and the white house are now trying to raise, something maybe even criminal sending the migrants to the north but it is virtually impossible to have any sympathy with chicago, illinois, new york Marthas Vineyard for that matter. All of us remember during the trump years century city was a phrase that came up over and over again and how all these cities, their doors were open to all these migrants. Suddenly numbers like 500 or even 50 in Marthas Vineyard arrived and they declare crisis. Mary is right the federal government is responsible for immigration, we need Immigration Reform law the last time we attempted it was 2013, it failed on both the right and left but to my mind, its no problem bringing the issue of immigrants to light in the north so maybe eventually we could have a serious conversation about what to do about our immigration l laws. Paul the president seems, hes not doing anything much is nothing at all. We have a Senior Administration official and you and i both met with him and threw up his hands and said unless congress does something, we cant do anything but the president could lead. I think its an issue, both parties haves seen this as a Campaign Issue and they havent wanted to solve it. I think we decided these people are going to be treated as refugees, they wont have to get in line and wait the way you do when you apply to migrate to the u. S. If thats the case then we need to move them around the country, disperse them and have a program that helps states handle the incoming. Paul from a policy matter, what are the one or two things most important to get this under control . I think you got to decrease the asylum system, a lot of people are gaining it because they want to come for the economic opportunity, in conjunction with getting rid of those an increase legal migration and away that fills job openings right now. Paul so people come here, economic migrants and want to work but they claim asylum and they were here anyway. Thats precisely it. Paul okay, that doesnt make a lot of sense. When we come back, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin hits the Campaign Trail Urging gop candidates to put education front and center. Can the power of parents give republicans the boost they need november . We are on the side of parents. Because guess what, parents matter. Ives last year, tens of thousands, Hundreds Of Thousands of virginia parents stood shoulder to shoulder and said enough. Enough. This is about our children, our future. As the sheriff said the future is going to be dictated by the education your children receive. Paul Virginia Governor glenn you can thursday and the swing state of nevada gop gubernatorial candidate joe lombardo urging republicans to make Education Centerpiece of the Fall Campaign. He channeled parental frustration over will curriculum and covid policies into unexpected wind in the Virginia Governors race it can other gop candidates hundreds power of anger parents november . Kim strassel jillian melcher. It is your can a popular draw on the Fall Campaign . With educational themes is he hitting . Hes talking to a number of things and a lot of people will ask when you can to campaign with him because they know its an important issue especially questions of School Choice which virginia is not that great on but other states have been moving extensively to get there and expand in many areas also. Parental control and that is one theme that has resonated with parents out there, not just they are angry their kids were locked out of school as long as they work because of covid but they began to realize how Little School administrators care about what parents think and theyve been pushed to the sidelines. That resonates especially among suburban parents. Paul or School Closures still an issue . They were a huge issue when it came to the pandemic but as in schools have reopened, is there lingering frustration . People keep remembering that along with the mask and Vaccine Mandates . I think its most focusing on loss, nations report card coming out finding during the pandemic students lost record sevenpoint in mathematics, we are down five points in rating, its brutal Learning Loss. I think parents are frustrated and in the meantime theyve learned rather than focusing on reading, writing and arithmetics, schools or training kids to be activists, focused on Divisive Political things and i dont think its surprising this month when we saw old saying satisfaction with k12 education is the lowest its been in 20 years. Its a salient political issue and malpractice if republican candidates dont seize on it. Paul if you look nationwide at the polling on education, they do headtohead which party is more trusted on which issues, democrats still have an edge over republicans on education. Is that different in some states as opposed to National View . What states will this become a big issue this fall . Theres an advantage but i would note how big of a change its been and how much ground republicans have made up on this and even some states when you do headtohead poles, its reversed and republicans are more trusted. This will be an issue in any state where theres a Competitive Senate race and competitive house districts. He looked down at arizona where the democrat candidate for the governorship katie hobbs is threatening to roll back if she wins the state amazing School Choice legislation there, carrie lake, republican opponent making an issue out of that. In Washington State Tiffany Smiley whose challenging democratic senator murray, she released an entire education agenda. Ron johnson in wisconsin recently released parents for ron johnson trying to highlight this issue. Anyway where there are parents and competitive grace, this will matter. Paul one of the trendsetters was ron desantis four years ago where he used School Choice to make strong inroads particularly with black pants who wanted School Choice and scholarships and felt those would be taken away. Has that been kind of the template republican candidates are following . Yes and i think theres huge opportunity to seize on it now going back to Learning Loss issue, one thing is how disproportionally armed poor and minority kids were during covid. The lockdowns are the kids and its got potential to have lifelong consequences so i think parents are rightly concerned but unfortunately when they try to raise concerns, theyve been told to back off and but out and i think the parents are so frustrated they feel they cant change the system or influence the School Boards so they like alternatives and republicans are smart to offer them. Paul whats Randi Weingartens role here, the union chief . Isyo she showing up in some of e races . Shes always there because unions are front and center andk unions are front and center andk theyve goe t their own Campaign Theme focused on basics trying to accuse republicans of being extremist but is not a winning message. Paul we have to take one more break. Its in missus when we come b back. Paul time for hits and misses for the week, kim, start us off. Paul, this is a miss to the administrations decision to freeze 5 previously approved oil and gas leases potentially putting those projects in limbo for years. The cause of this is a classic Democratic Administration trick in which friendly green groups sue the administration and then the Administration Settles even though everyone gets what they want. Either way, its the latest example of the administrations strangling fossil fuels even as Energy Prices are soaring. All right, mary. A hit for tennis icon Roger Federer who announced that he would retire this week. Roger federer gave us more than 20 years of mindblowing tennis, 20 grand slam titles but its important to remember that he also lost 11 finals matches. No Loser Tantrums and no screaming at umpires and i will for one will miss him. My miss goes to oregon, surge in retail left at liquor stores. Youve got people going in, grabbing bottles off the shelf and walking out. This activity is concentrated in portland which has defunded the Police Department and cultivated culture of impunity and i will tell you what, this is a state that needs an intervention. Paul by the voters, for sure. A conference of conservatives in which he identified something called the Great American exodus. Hes talking about the movement of population from blue states like california, illinois, new york and new jersey into red states in the west and south like arizona, texas and florida. He cited floridas low taxes. Ive written about this migration before and i have to give senator or Governor Desantis credit for identifying what could be a major historical Population Movement in the u. S. Paul all righty, thats it for this weeks show, thanks to my page and thanks for all of you watching. Im paul gigot and hope to see you next week. Eric the white house is ripping republican governor who is are sending immigrants to Sanctuary Cities including Marthas Vineyard, those flights arranged by florida Governor Ron Desantis. The migrants being housed at joint base cape cod. Meantime theres no response from Vice President harris after a second bus from texas drops off 50 migrants right outside her official residence at the naval observatory in washington this morning. So the battle of these migrants continue