Gerri hello, everyone, i am gerri willis. Retailers dealing with the fallout of shoppers not showing up this Holiday Season, dc starbucks store is urging lawmakers to come together tomorrow and friday. They will come back to work in a mighty more to to the point. The senate is back tomorrow morning. Treasury secretary tim geithner is one congressional leaders about december 31. Thats next monday, my friends, five short days from now. We have Michael Burgess of texas with us. I want to read you what the treasury secretary wrote to harry reid. He said im writing to inform you that the statutory debt limit will be reached on december 31. He went on to say that they have special gimmicks they are going to deploy to allow us to go past december 31. We have to tell you that here we are again. Nothing is being done. We have no resolution of the fiscal cliff him and we are about to hit our heads on the debt ceiling. What you have to say . First off, lets remember that the debt limit is no surprise. The surprise is that he shouldnt be surprised. Its his job to keep track of this. And everybody knew that we are going to run out of money in december. Apparently except for him. One of the big secrets during the president ial election, there were a lot of things that the administration kept from the American People. One of the big secrets was that we would hit this debt limit in december. Because of the way they have been spending money for that past year. They have 150 trillion in january, remember . We all talked about that. They have blown through in less than a year. That is problem number one, the spending. Gerri it is absolutely a problem. There is no doubt about that. I tell you that the general public is blaming republicans. 61 say it is the fault of your party, the republicans, your party, but we are about to go over this fiscal cliff. What do you say . Of course they blame republicans. That is what people in washington bureau. Lets be realistic about this. The president owns the economy at the end of the day, whether he wants to admit it or not. This is his job. I was there in 2003 in the second round of socalled bush tax policies came to the house. The house house wanted 550 billion in cuts. All they could get was 250 billion. It was a compromise. George bush came down and met with our conference and said, you guys thought the good fight, this is what i mean, need, lets go and take what we can get, with a 250 billion and the problem is solved. Gerri i dont see that exactly. [talking over each other] [talking over each other] can you imagine . Can you imagine Lyndon Johnson sitting on the sidelines while Something Like this was going on . Gerri i cannot imagine Lyndon Johnson going anywhere but washington and sitting there, quite frankly. Something that is new out this afternoon, Senior Administration officials in hawaii, saying that it up the gop. That gop leaders should not stand in way of coming to resolution of the fiscal debt crisis. What do you say to that . Let me tell you, a lot of fingerpointing is continuing, and im not seeing any resolution. I dont think anyone elses either. Speaker boehner had planned be on the floor last week. Then he pulled it. He had 200 votes probably. Had steny come to him and said we have democrats that would vote with you, the problem would have been over. Do you think Lyndon Johnson wouldve been on the phone, had it been in the ring last week . Of course he went. Ronald reagan wouldve done the same thing. He recalled his spokesman said, look, needed to be with me on this. We will get some other stuff done later. The problem is the president will not engage. He wants it to happen. But he doesnt have his fingerprints on it because he knows whatever occurs is ultimately going to be unsatisfactory from other perspectives. But remember this, the fiscal cliff is a madefortv drama. The debt limit is real. Gerri yes, it is real. Tomorrow the gop members will have a Conference Call about what to do next. What do you think you can accomplish . Speaker boehner is probably stuck in ohio because the weather is so bad. A lot of yourself, who may not be able to get back to washington. Thats right, i have a 6 00 oclock flight booked every for the next several days, and its just a matter what happens with this storm that came through here on christmas day. What it is doing in washington dc tomorrow. Gerri what you think will be accomplished in a Conference Call tomorrow . Honestly, i do not know. This was a surprise that we got. But we knew we were going to be given 48 hours notice to come back to the capital. So i suspect thats a Conference Call is. Gerri you guys should stay until the problem is solved. Theres nothing wrong with working weekends, my friend. Its always great to have you on the show. You are always so patient with my questions. Thank you so much, congressman. Its great to have you on. Thank you, gerri. Gerri president obama is in washington negotiating a deal to revert the fiscal cliff. The first time and there are 500 billion in tax hikes coming your way. December 31. Grover norquist from the president of americans for tax reform are warning that that is only the start of our problem. In addition to the bush tax cuts, 500 billiondollar tax increases, a trillion dollars in Obamacare Taxes, all the taxes to pay for that Free Health Care we are supposed to get. 90 of the tax increases to pay for obamacare were conveniently postponed until after obama got himself safely reelected. They begin to hit january 1 of this coming year. They are unpleasant. Gerri absolutely unpleasant. It is a disincentive to invest into work. I dont know what people are going to do down the road. Now it seems that people are saying its up to the senate. Its in the senate ballpark now to do something and to get some kind of bill. Will they do anything at all . All the focus has been on president obama and the house of representatives. The leader, speaker boehner. Some of us went to public school, but i still learned that there is a senate involved in all of this. [laughter] for the last three years no one has been talking by the United States senate. Gerri its like theyre under some witness protection program. They dont do a budget. They dont write a budget, they dont vote on the budget. The republicans took them into putting obamas budget out and then they voted against it. They havent put together a budget because they cannot reelect the democrat majority of the senate in 2024. If everyone of those senators had actually stake out a position as being in favor of obama and his taxes and spending. Gerri i dont understand why people arent marching on the hill. I really dont. This is what we hired them for, to iron out these differences, and no one is doing the job. Lets take a look at the numbers for folks that are married. If you make 50,000 per year, youll pay an additional 2000 in taxes. If you pay 100,000, an additional 446 in taxes. The list goes on. You make it to make a million dollars, an additional 50,000 in taxes. This will cause people to reinvent the way they lived daytoday. I dont see why people are upset about this. They should be. But all of the tax cut that you just mentioned, it is due to the disappearance of the bush tax cuts. The democrats all voted against the bush tax cuts. So they voted to keep those tax increases, not next year, but for the previous 12 years. So you have a very big fight in washington. The democrats have opposed the bush tax cuts, call them names, said they were for rich people, now that they are about to disappear, they are running for the hills. Because they know that that was the tax cut that largely been a beneficial thing. Gerri they are saying that we cant process two thirds of the tax returns with this going on. People who are experts in payroll are saying that we cannot figure out how to handle payroll if youre not going to give us some kind of idea of what youre going to do. The problems are big. It is a myriad of problems. Can we go over the fiscal cliff and not causing a recession . Well, i think some people believe and i would argue that i think it is likely, president obama want the school to the fiscal cliff. Gerri i did hear you say that. Why would you say that . Because the next four years will be a mess. A trillion dollars on higher taxes for obamacare, continued overspending because the president has refused to do any restraint on spending, no entitlement reform, no trimming of spending. And the regulatory regime. The regulations that the obama people spent four years writing. They have decided not to share them with us before the president got reelected. Once his job was secure, he no longer had to care or pretend to care about your job. So now you have hundreds of billions of dollars of new regulations. Maybe even more expensive than spending. Gerri i have to ask you this question. People talk to me about this all the time in new york city. They say higher taxes are Grover Norquist fault. He has not come to the table or been willing to negotiate. He is the person who forced members of the house of representatives to say no more taxes. What do you say . First of all, as you know, from congress to the senate and people in his or her state this pledge is protecting American People through tax increases. We havent had a republican republican vote for a tax increase in 22 years. That has really slowed down the growth of government from what it wouldve been otherwise. Now, obama comes in and wants to spend more and raise taxes. Republicans are saying no. We would have a problem if obama hadnt increased the budget by a trillion dollars more a year. Gerri lets face it, whether youre talking about stimulus spending, obamacare, thats3 going to go through the roof, the things that youre going to pay for all this with higher taxes is lunacy, to say the least. On that note, were going to have to leave it there. Thank you for coming, grover. We hope to see you in the new year. Christmas sales were weaker than expected. So now retailers have to give shoppers deeper discounts. In a new proposal to help struggling homeowners. Dont worry, the government will take care of you. We will explain coming up next ally bank. Why they have a raise your rate cd. Tonight our guest, thomas sargent. Nobel laureate in economics, and one of the most cited economists in the world. Professor sargent, can you tell me what cd rates will be in two years . No. If he cant, no one can. Thats why ally has a raise your rate cd. Ally bank. Your money needs an ally. Gerri retailers are experiencing their worst holiday performance since the 2008 financial crisis. But is it too late to count retailers out . Could post holiday discounts have retailers and shoppers spurting . Lets ask founder of Americas Research group, president and chief economist. What happened with retail sales . We were expecting a 3 gain yeartoyear, not falling off a cliff. What happened . Well, i predicted sales would be up about 1. 8 . Number 150 of consumers, they are only going to shop and buy when there are big bargains. They were going to shop on black friday, wait three days before christmas, and finally, 74 of consumers will avoid credit cards as much as possible. In doing that, they had to live on their check. Gerri at 1. 8 , that is a little bit better than what went wrong. Keep in mind that is store sales numbers. When the consumers did not do credit cards this year, keep in mind only 75 went Christmas Shopping for 25 wanted to see 75 off. But they didnt get it. Because of that, they didnt spend a dollar. Gerri certainly not everyone did it. Jason, Consumer Confidence is at a fivemonth low. Its pretty dramatic. Yet the Commerce Department said that Consumer Spending has been up. What gives . What is the real story among consumers . I think the real story here is that continued trend of modest improvement that you are seeing more job creation, although very mild. A very modest. You are seeing spending increasing. Over time, moving higher, i think a lot of what we are seeing in the data now is the Third Quarter for this year is very strong. If you look at the contribution to gdp is the Third Quarter, it was 0. 9 . Last Third Quarter for 2011 was 0. 3 . We had a really strong Third Quarter. The Fourth Quarter was really strong, 1. 3 of the contribution. This is going to be a little bit weaker. Just look at the thirdquarter as being a lot smarter. Gerri i wish we didnt have to make those tradeoffs. Why cant we just get better and better . You know, we are getting better, but its very slow. Its low enough that you can tell. Thats true. If you want to feel better about it, you have to lower your expectations little. Gerri i dont like that game at all. Let me ask you about whats coming. What is at your after crystal ball for the entity or . Last week in december cant be 15 of holiday sales. What is in your crystal ball for them . Was going to happen is you dont see retailers giving consumers the discounts anyway. I hear all over the place that there has been huge discounted. That is part of the problem for retailers, but they wont be able to maintain margins. That is the problem. Retailers are concerned about wall street and main street. People like macys is advertising 40 off. The consumers arent seeing those big discounts that they saw a few years ago. More importantly, the other challenge is consumers have simply, when they shopped at stores come they havent seen something nice. Fortyone of consumers bought something that they liked for themselves. Thats a big difference between whether you had a Big Christmas season and a weak Christmas Season. Well, i think consumers remain widely pricesensitive. The margins remain tight. But i think some people remain quite concerned about what mr. Holds. It looks like we are either going to have another year of modest growth, or potentially we could be in recession. That is not a great thing to look at as you are going into the end of the year. You know, people are holding back a little bit for that exact reason. An interesting analysis from both of you tonight. Thank you both for coming on. Fascinating conversation. A target inside the consumers mind. You dont know what theyre thinking. Now, we want to know what you think. There is a question tonight. Compared to last her, year, how much did you spend this Holiday Season . More or less . About the same . Log onto gerriwillis. Com and vote on the righthand side of the screen. I will share the results later. Coming up, the federal government wants to expand a massive program for helping homeowners. We will have the details. Deadly Winter Weather hits the northeast. Postchristmas travel is thrown into chaos. Stay with us. Copd makes it hard to breathe, but with advair, im breathing better. So now i can be in the scene. Advair is clinically proven to help significantly improve lung function. Unlike most copd medications, advair contas both an antiinflammatory and a longacting bronchodilator working together to help improve your lung function all day. Advair wont replace fastacting inhalers for sudden symptoms and should not be used more than twice a day. People with copd taking advair may have a higher chance of pneumonia. Advair may increase your risk of osteoporosis and some eye problems. Tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high Blood Pressure before taking advair. If youre still having difficulty breathing, ask your doctor if including advair could help improve your lung function. Get your first full prescription free and save on refills at advaircopd. Com. Gerri the Obama Administration calling for expansion of the Housing Market. I am not kidding. Details are coming up next gerri good news for housing. Prices increase. And heres the breakdown. The index of Property Values in 20 cities, increased 4. 3 from october of last year to this year. That is the biggest games in 2010. I know some of you are thinking that these gains are games are coming in the wake of hughs huge price drops. Thats true. The Housing Market is recovering. Bargainbasement lows, prices still are not low, but it looks like a lot of consumers are taking advantage of the perfect storm. So that makes it all more curious of the Obama Administration is calling for an expansion of the federal governments involvement in the Housing Market. Unbelievable. What the administration is proposing is a bailout. A bailout for homeowners who are underwater. That is that they owe more than the house is worth. Even if its not that by fannie mae and freddie mac. I believe this is a recipe for disaster the government would be doubling down with cheap housing financing. On the backs of taxpayers. The governments record of fixing the Housing Market is a recipe for disaster. What is the my mom told me . Time is a great healer. In the case of housing, that is doubly true. Coming up next, it measuring how much our banks are doing. Coming up next feedback from our fox business studios, here again is gerri willis. Gerri hammering the northeast, you can see the winter storm that is supposed to dump a foot of snow or more. Parts of ohio and indiana are expecting the snow as well. This ones system has been blamed for six deaths so far in. Tens of thousands of people also without power. It also disrupted holiday travel. They are expected to be coming back tomorrow. The big news story that is not getting a lot of attention that it should. A shocking new government report shedding light on the biggest banks and how they are being run. Within 2. 5 years after the passage of doddfrank, another financial crisis, if it happens right now, we might need another taxpayer bailout. Welcome back to the show. One of the big regulators, the office of the comptroller of the concert on concurrency, decided we werent getting things right. So we are going to start looking into more broadway with the banks do and we look at the 19 biggest banks. In five different categories from that virtually all filled up. That doesnt make me feel any better. What banks are we talking about . I think we have some of the biggest banks out there. Is it the usual list of suspects like youre seeing right here . They did not name names. That wasnt even a report was made public. This is something that my colleague had gone through sources. What it showed is that all of the 19 largest banks, it would include the 19 banks are referring to. Unbelievable. At the end of the day, they are no better off. This brings into doctoring. Why isnt doctoring making things better . Doddfrank is in the implementation stage. I think part of this is the question whether can we micromanage . Is this the right approach . 840 pages, 10,000 pages of regulation already read is this making the system safer . Does our tax code give us a fair tax system . The question is whether the crystal ball that this officer of the comptroller of the currency is using. In his holding cell in china. Gerri regulators didnt see the last crisis. The likelihood is not high. But what more regulators would look at . Fairly narrow things like the liquidity risk, Interest Rate risk, Different Things happening in the financial markets. Now, what they are trying to do is look more broadly. For example, what sort of Risk Management systems these banks have in place . Are they planning for the next ceo . Are they communicating to the employees what sort of risks they want to undertake . Gerri didnt we see that with Jpmorgan Chase . They made the big a big bet and lost a ton of dough . Exactly. You can consider regulators are trying to take a more holistic approach pardon me for using outward. Gerri if they only knew how. They are so far away from what really goes on in these prints. Its hard for them to even understand businesses. How likely do you think it is that we will have another bailout . I think that obviously when we have the next crisis, certainly the question will be when Interest Rates go up, what will happen . It also raises the question to your point, is this the right approach or should the banks be broken up . The question, of course, if you have a good markets . The idea that we dont have monopolies, or do we have faith in regulators . Even goodfaith regulators dont have crystal balls in a shirt on. Gerri and you coming for coming on, we really enjoy what you have to say. This is the report that should get more attention. Thank you so much for bringing it to us. My pleasure be one earlier i told you about mortgages for the Housing Market. Home prices up again compared to last year. For some people, it has been a really great year. Tonights top five. The most expensive homes sold in america this year. Coming in at number five, david geffen brought this extravagant spread for a whopping 64 million. Breaking the record for the most expensive coop ever sold in new york. And number four, steve wynn. He bought this luxurious condo. Also in new york city. 70 million. The apartment which was once the hotels ballroom has 14 rooms and over 10,000 square feet of space. Which is massive for new york. Number three, we are still in new york were a russian billionaire bought a penthouse on Central Park West for 89. He reportedly bought it for his college age daughter to use when shes in town. I hope shes countable there. Number two, this lavish new york city duplex penthouse with jetliner views of central park. The 11,000 squarefoot penthouse was originally listed for 110 million. But the buyer is anonymous. I can tell you it is. The most expensive home by 2012, look at this. It is in montana. The billionaire owner of the st. Louis rams bought this range. The final sale price not yet revealed. But if he paid nearly 1. 5 million asking price, it would have been by far the biggest Residential Real Estate sale in the u. S. This year. I could use a ranch house. That would be nice. Coming up, forget the fiscal cliff. A slew of new taxes coming your way in less than week. Something congress and the president talked about years ago. I will break it down ask. [ male announcer ] this is the age of knowing what youre made of. Why let erectile dysfunction get in your way . Talk to your doctor about viagra. Ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. 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Then i read a book while teaching myself how to play guitar; ran ten miles while knitting myself a sweater; jumped out of a plane. Finally, i became a ping pong master while recording my debut album. How you ask . With 5hour energy. I get hours of energy now no crash later. Wait to see the next five hours. Gerri it will be a new year pretty soon. We will get new taxes. Not just for wealthy americans either. Millions of americans will face Obamacare Tax hikes in 2013. Especially the middle class. It will likely affect the way you receive care in the way you buy health care. Care to explain is doctor mitchell brooks. Doctor, welcome back to the show. Its always good to have you here. You say that its really a three card monte. That is what the American Public is getting the obamacare. What do you mean . There are so many hidden costs in the health care lot. We are not given the full information. Your playing where the odds are stacked. You dont even know where the cards are. There is a new tax is going in the basically states that threshold will be allowable for medical deductions from income will grow from 7. 5000 of the 10,000. For people who people who dont itemize them, they might say thats okay. Rich people are going to get theyre not going to have issues and we are not. Well, thats not true. If you have a combined Household Income of 80,000 permit fee of 8000 in medical expenses. Welcome to the new law will not allow you to deduct 2000 that you previously were allowed to deduct. If youre in the 25 tax bracket, it will cost you 500,000. Gerri that kind of deduction is used by people who are in deep financial debt with medical expenses. These are people who really need help. Somehow they are going to have less hell. Lets talk about this or tax on investment income. Using the same issue applies there. Its not just the wealthy people who will get you with us. What do you mean . Well, if you have an ira or 401k if you take your money out, which you have to do at a certain age, there is an additional 3. 8 is going to be tacked on to your taxes. In other words, if you have 10,000 that you want to install, 380 go to pay for health care. You dont have to be rich to 10,000 in the ira. Nobody talks about that. It also goes from the transaction he might have in the bank or anything you want gerri something that people dont realize that its happening, people love flexible spending accounts. It allows you to set aside pretax dollars to set aside for a variety of things. Obamacare makes it less useful. How so . What it does, it reduces what you can do that. It goes from 5000 to 25,000. The problem is that we are told that we are supposed to control the cost of health care. But it seems to me that the only reason to do this is to control health care. It takes the control of your Health Care Away from you. If you have a flexible plan, between 30 and 35 Million People have such a plan, if you have this plan, you could decide what you would do with 5000, which you could deduct or take out of your income, like you would an ira account. And it rolls over to the next year if you have a Health Savings account. Now the government says he can you can only take 2500 out. Gerri they are also limiting what you can spend on. Thats right. Gerri i want each one of the issue issues here. Middleclass people, everyone says, oh, this isnt going to hit me. But you say it well. The sales tax on medical devices. Using that to become a big problem . That could become a major problem. Stryker already announced that it will lay off a thousand people in 2013. There are approximately 400,000 people in the medical device industry, that impact 2 Million Manufacturing jobs. Granted, they are a conservative think tank. But if they are off by 50 , they predict that there will be 43,000 jobs lost as a result of this tax. In the middle class and the working class will pay for this tax to increase premiums. Gerri we dont know whats coming, and i think the price tag on this whole thing is only going to go up and come out of our pockets. Thank you for coming on tonight. We greatly appreciate it. Gerri Merry Christmas and happy new year. Happy new year to you as well. Gerri thank you. Up next, how to make profit out of uncertainty in this economy. We will be right back with the details gerri the new year means new taxes for Many Americans think to obamacare. Coming up next, it should fare well when consumers pockets get tighter. Gerri breaking news for you now. Former president george h. W. Bush is back in the hospital in the intensive care unit in houston. A spokesman for the former president saying that he was reunited on sunday after persistent fever and doctors are cautiously optimistic about the course of mistreatment. The president was previously in the hospital last month for bronchitis symptoms. But a spokesman said his cop has improved. Former president george h. W. Bush in intensive care in houston. We will update you with any other details that we get in the hour. Meanwhile, im a totally different story, the fiscal cliff is still a big concern for most investors. As the president and congress try to come up with a lastditch effort to fix the fiscal cliff for the year. The dow jones is down nearly 25 points today. Having fallen more than 1. 5 over the past week. With details, we have jerry leiby for zacks investment research. Here is a big question. If nothing happens, will there be a big seller . Well, if nothing happens, yes, 547 . But i dont think the question is easy. Theres going to be a kick the can solution. The question really is what are the details . Who gets hurt the most, and what exactly is going to come out of consumers pockets with we estimate 1500 at minimum will be the reduced income for the average consumer in 2013. But what else . Gerri okay, hang on. What is that though the traders want to see . You talk about consumers and how they will be treated. But how will traders in life its quick what will make them approve the plan . Will traders are looking for is a balanced approach, if there is such a thing. And the question is where is the breaking point happened when we talk about dividends. We talk about capital gains. That is where a lot of my colleagues and traders that i talk to are focusing their energy. A lot of folks and their four o. One kays, our money is in stock market. He starts acting all of that, even if its a retirement account, the psychological effects. Gerri its not just psychological, its dollars and cents. Investment income gets hammered with obamacare, that is across the board are people who make their living in the investment community. It will be very tough. Everyone will be looking for better advice, but at the end of the day, you might think twice about the stock market. We have already been through that not too long ago. Talking further here, looking into your crystal ball, waiting some people are predicting a great year. Do you believe that . We are four years into a full market here. We are up 14 . The s p is up this year. By the way, decades have about two pullbacks or sharp corrections in them. Five to 10 minimum. A lot of volatility in. Gerri cant you be a little bit bullishness . Are nice. [laughter] so traditional choices in that category. Any other ideas . There are a couple ideas. Just thinking about what you do in your everyday life. Cash is tight, youre not going to go out and buy a steak. You will substitute with some chicken. Chicken is about 1. 33. Ground beef 3. 33. That is not even a state. There are companies that you still want to take a look at. Looking to be on the good side. Which means chicken will be in demand and it is also a cheaper alternative. I like Sanderson Farms as one. Gerri Sanderson Farms is one. You have anything else in your give back their . I dont know if you want to eat this, but Alliance Tech systems, they are actually in ammunition maker. Ive been reading about the horrible connecticut shooting in this new push for thomas. Folks going out and buying guns en masse. But i think the taxes will come on the ammunition. I think that is where they will attack. They will have a great couple of quarters and they are grabbing up as much ammunition as possible. But they are a great one. Gerri if i had to base my Investment Choices based on congress i dont know, but thank you for the commentary. Have a great new year. Thank you, gerri. Gerri we will be right back with my two cents more and my two cents more and my answers the question of the day. How much did you spend this Christmas Season . Stay with us. [ male announcer ] how do you trade . With scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. Fully customize it for your trading process from thought to trade, on every screen. D all in real time. Which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. Try our easytouse scottrader streaming quotes. Its another reason more investors are saying. [ all ] im with scottrade. Gerri did you spend more, less or about the same this Holiday Season . Here is how you voted on gerriwillis. Com. Most of you said less. I did too. Last week we told you about the top five gifts not give men or women as christmas including clothes and ways to monitor your weight, but it ended up being the recipient of one of those gifts, you may be in luck because it is time to return them. Good news for best buy extending their deadline for returning