The ray rice case. But promises to track down on Domestic Violence. I made a mistake. Im not satisfied with the process that we went through. Im not satisfied with the conclusions. With a number of major sponsors turning up the heat, where does the nfl go from here . Well talk with sports commentator jim gray and our sunday panel weighs in. Plus, its just 44 days to the midterm elections. With control of the senate up for grabs. Well handicap the key races and get some predictions from our political gurus, karl rove and joe trippi. And our power player of the week, best selling author daniel silva on creating one of the top spies. I think we secretly hope there are people like gabriel elan out there. All up next. Hello from fox news in washington. The secret service has stepped up security around the white house after a man with a knife made it inside the president s home friday night. Fox news correspondent elizabeth friend joins us from the north lawn where it all happened. Reporter hi, chris. Security has been enhanced after a texas man carrying a 3 1 2 inch serrated blade jumped over the fence to the white house. The location of his arrest is unacceptable. It was all caught on video. 4 yearold Omar Gonzalez sprinting toward the pillars of the north portico. He wasnt stopped until he passed through the threshold of the white house doors. A source says at least one officer was outside the door with his weapon out but decided not to shoot, using his own discretion. Gonzalez was not taken down on the lawn or met by dogs. I cant understand why the dog was released. Why no one intercepted him or tackled him. Its baffling to me and a lot of folks. The president was not home at night, having left minutes beforehand for his daughter for camp david. The first lady was also away. Its only been a week and a half since a man wearing a pokemon costume, who was met immediately by officers with a gun and a dog unit. On saturday Law Enforcement officials conducted a shoulder to shoulder sweep of the front lawn, plaza and adjacent park before kevin carr was arrested and charged for trying to enter a barricaded white house entry with his car. Gonzalez was charged with unlawfully entering a restricted building or grounds while carrying a deadly or dangerous weapon. The secret service said just last night theyre conducting a xrens si review. Chris, back to you. Elizabeth, thanks for that. Congress is now on record giving bipartisan approval to president obamas plan to train Syrian Rebels. But it was a hold your nose and say yes vote as members of congress and some of the president s top military advisers expressed strong doubts about the obama plan to fight isis. We want to explore that with two members of the House Intelligence Committee who both voted to approve the president s request. In new york, republican congressman peter king and here in washington, democrat adam schiff. Before we get to isis, congressman king, youre also a member of the House Homeland Security committee. I want to ask your reaction to this terrible Security Breach at the white house and what does the secret service need to do better. Chris, i have Great Respect for the secret service but this is inexcusable that he went over the fence. I believe it takes 35 to 40 seconds to run across a lawn. A dog can be released in four seconds. And then he made it all the way to the white house, actually entered the front door. And the fact that they say he wasnt brought down because they didnt think he had a weapon. He could have had a body bomb, a vest on. As we know, he did have a knife. So, this demands a full investigation, why it happened and whats being done to make sure it never happens again. Im on the Homeland Security committee and im sure chairman mccall will be holding a hearing as to what happened and also as to how the recommendations are being implemented. There can be a lot of conspiracies against the president , complex assassination plots. This is the most simple type of procedure and how anyone, especially in the days of isis, and were concerned about terrorist tax, someone can actually get into the white house without being stopped is inexcusable. Lets turn to isis. The wall street journal reports that the u. S. Wants other nations to agree to take on syria before we launch air strikes in syria. Perhaps as early as this coming week. Congressman schiff, how dependent should the u. S. Be on this International Coalition, especially for military support so that we dont appear to be going it alone . I think its going to be very important we get the Regional Support of our allies. But it will be tempered. Its not as if we can say, we have the support, we can count on it. We have to go back to them time and time again, pressuring them to do more. Pressuring the turks to shut down their border to foreign jih jihadis, pressuring the qataris and saudis, and pressuring them to put overt and arab face on the opposition. I do think its significant, chris, that saudi arabia is now willing to overtly openly host the training for this rebel force. Thats a significant step that will put a big target on saudi backs. We are getting meaningful cooperation but theyre not doing it because they love it. Theyre doing because necessity recognize isis is a real threat to them. Secretary of state kerry was at the u. N. This week trying to round up International Support and he made this surprising statement. There is a role for nearly every country in the world to play including iran. Congressman king, a couple of questions. First of all, are you as surprised as i am that secretary kerry would be inviting iran into the International Coalition . Generally speaking, how do you feel . Are we getting enough support, especially military support, active military action by our International Allies . No, chris, so far were not. Where i disagree with the president , attacking isis is in our National Interest. If we can get allies and a coalition together, thats fine. We should work on it. But cant be behold ton a coalition. Were not doing this for humanitarian purposes or not doing it for the people of syria or iraq. Were doing it because its in our National Interest to do so. If thats the case, we cant be holding back. We should attack and strike and do what we can to command and control centers isis has in syria. Thats a key component of isis located in syria. We shouldnt be waiting for other countries. What about iran . I think its a terrible mistake. First of all, the fact theyre shiites and this involves sunnis. Also, iran is powerful enough. Theyre ultimately, they are the main threat in that part of the world. And to be doing anything at all to build them up, to give them a sanctuary, to, in effect, have them on our side, what does that do to israel . What does that do to the Nuclear Development plan in iran . I think it weakens our position. I cannot understand why we want to get iran involved. Were continuing to see this remarkable split between the president , who is double down this week and said, absolutely no u. S. Boots on the ground in a combat role and his top military advisers, current and former, civilian and military, are all saying we cant rule that out. Thats a real possibility. Congressman king, will u. S. Forces have to get involved in a combat role, if only to call in air strikes and help iraqi and Peshmerga Forces on the front line . We already have Ground Troops on the ground. Special forces are there. Theyre in harms way. I dont see how ultimately we can avoid putting combat troops on the ground in some capacity. More than, that i dont know why the president says up front were not going to put boots on the ground. Dont take anything off the table. Never let the enemy know what youre going to do or not do. General madison before the Intelligence Committee on friday. And he was saying there are two parts. You should never let the enemy know what youre going to do. If we expect to get Coalition Troops on our side from that region, if the president takes it one step forward and one step sideways, that shows a lack of seriousness and purpose and thats why it will be harder to get saudis, jordanians or uae involved because theyre afraid the president wont stick this out. Let me bring congressman schiff through intoou this. You oppose the use of combat forces in iraq, but general dempsey, the army chief of staff, ray odierno said they may be needed and so does robert gates, the first obama secretary of defense. Take a look. There will be boots on the ground if there is to be any hope of success in the strategy. I think by continuing to repeat that, the president , in effect, traps himself. Congressman, are gates and odierno and dempsey all wrong . No, but i dont think theyr. Dempsey said if circumstances down the road pose a threat to the United States hell make a different recommendation. Thats what he should do. His role is different from the president s. But the president the president isnt saying, well f circumstances change. Hes saying no. No u. S. Combat forces. Yes, thats what hes saying. Dempsey is also saying that he subscribes to the strategy of utilizing iraqi and Peshmerga Forces on the ground. Not americans in a combat mission. I think thats the right call. What the general is saying, im in agreement with that strategy, if that strategy doesnt work or at some point a threat to the yashgts im going to make a different rental to the4 president. Thats exactly what and you think the president will be open then to a different strategy . I think the president will be open. Chris, i want a president who is not going to accept everything that the military says uncritically. We have tried massive occupations in iraq earlier and in afghanistan. Were in afghanistan now. 13 years later we still havent solved the problem in afghanistan. Do we really want to be in position where 13 years from now we are massively occupying syria in iraq . I dont think thats what we want. One other point, chris, that is the president s role is obviously different than the military commands role. Its the military commands job to tell the president what they want. Its the president s job to decide what they need. And the president has to bring our country along. Thats a tough job. We have a couple minutes left. I want to ask you each one more question. Congressman schiff, i want to ask you about congress, because this week as we pointed out, you did approve 500 million to arm and train the Syrian Rebels. On the other hand, youre going to go home without a larger vote to authorize what, in effect, is a new war. The question i have is, is congress forfeiting its constitutional responsibility . Absolutely. Absolutely. The president has said this is a war. This is going to last years. That is quintessentially the power of congress only to declare. I think we are really ababdicat role. I think it would be narrow but bring this fight within constitutional framework. I dont accept the administrations argument we can rely on the amof which applied to a different conflict at a different time. I think its anc abdication of constitutional dimension. Finally, congressman king, as we mentioned youre a member of the House Homeland Security committee. There was this extraordinary event in australia this week where 15 people were arrested for allegedly planning public beheadings they had been urged to carry out on the internet. How concerned are you about the threat here to the u. S. Homeland, either from isis or from other Al Qaeda Affiliated groups in syria, like a new group were hearing about. How concerned are you about the threat to the u. S. Homeland either from selfradicalized people who hear about these things on the internet or foreign fighters in syria or iraq and then come back . Chris, im very concerned. We still have al qaeda. We still have al qaeda in the arabian peninsula, we have the new group, isis, al qaeda affiliates homegrown. I dont subscribe to this belief at all that isis is not a threat to the homeland. Not just from fighters coming back but they have thousands of europeans with passports who can come into the u. S. They have more money, more fighters and more than al qaeda had on 9 11. Theyre a real threat to the u. S. Back in 2011 briefly. Real briefly. We cant take our eye off the ball because al qaeda, the al nusrah franchise poses a more immediate threat to our homeland than isis does at the present. Theyre trying to work with aqap bombmakers to smuggle on bombs on our planes. We cannot lose sight of that threat. Thats a more immediate threat to america. I would say theyre all a threat. Equal threats, coming at us, and we have to be on our guard at all times. If isis went into australia, they can certainly come into the u. S. In 2011 they attempted to attack ft. Knox. Gentlemen, you have thoroughly scared me. Thank you both. Thanks for coming in today. Coming up, the latest on the scandal involving the National Football league and commissioner Roger Goodell. But first, how much of a coalition has president obama put together to fight isis . Our sunday panel joins us next. 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This is the people of that region versus isil. Its the world versus isil. President obama talking about the Broad Coalition he says hes put together to fight isis and its time now for our sunday group. Fox newses senior political analyst, julie pace, syndicated columnist george will and fox news political analyst ron williams. Julie, from the white house officials you talked with, are they satisfied with the military support theyre getting from other countries . Do they really intend to wait to get other countries to join in before they launch air strikes against sir and why on earth, a lot of questions for you, would secretary kerry invite iran into the coalition . Well, in terms of the coalition they have right now, theyre certainly not satisfied. Really, we just have france publicly on board with air strikes. We have saudi arabia thats committed to training Syrian Rebels in their country. Theyre looking specifically, though, for commitments from arab nations to get involved militarily. Thats key to this. Mostly symbolically. Its not that the u. S. Cant carry this out on their own but symbolically they want to have this Broad Coalition. Youll see the president and secretary kerry at the u. N. Trying to build that coalition and get public commitments. When it comes to iran, though, this is really tricky, because we know what the u. S. Has largely ruled out doing with iran, coordinating militarily, through intelligence channels and you have secretary kerry talk about a need to work with them. What that involves if youre not coordinating militarily or intelligence channels, i think, is a big question. And also a problem because theyre a shiite nation and it only increases the sense this is the shiites against the sunnis, which is a huge divide. Brit, let me ask you, so far this is not exactly the coalition of the willing that george w. Bush was so widely mocked for when he went into iraq in 2003. The numbers are not bad in terms of the number of countries but whats missing here is the elements of a commitment to support what is going to end up having to be a military ground operation. Isis holds territory. Territory needs to be retain if youre to conquer isis. You cant do that. Can you do a lot more from the air but you cant do that without Ground Forces. Its not at all clear where these Ground Forces are going to come from. I dont think any serious military Analyst Thinks the Syrian Rebels can be trained up in sufficient number to do away with isis. Whats lacking there is a commitment to help this ground operation. One more further word about iran. Its not just that iran is shiite. Its also were involved in this Nuclear Negotiation with iran. The iranians are talking about, yeah, well help. But we want more flexibility in terms of the nuclear talks. There have you one Foreign Policy objective undermining another. I think thats a very unfortunate overture. Particularly after iran initially saying they didnt want to play and kerry is, in fact, begging. Not good. I talked with the congressman in the previous segment about this remarkable and continuing split between the president and his top military advisers about how we should conduct the fight against isis. This week on 60 minutes former defense secretary for obama, leon panetta, said he was not confident when the president pulled all u. S. Troops out of iraq in 2011. Take a look. No, i wasnt. I really really thought it was important for us to maintain a presence in iraq. As our resident history yarngs how unusual is for a president to go against his top military advisers, even as hes laying out the strategy for a new war against isis, to go against them repeatedly . Repeatedly is the key here. Truman against mcarthur, weve had disagreements off and on. What dempsey said is if the mission requires this. Maybe this is the sort of thing you shouldnt say out loud, but he was invited to by congress and he said that. The fact is that theres a general agreement, i think, that the goal and the means allocated to pursue the goal just dont fit in this case. Referred to the Syrian Rebels. Another are the vetted moderates. I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall when we vetted the opposition. I think all that dempsey was saying is if necessary to achieve the mission, well do this. What were not doing is pal dock. Do it overwhelming with undisputable force. The white house is doubling down on the president s pledge not to get u. S. Troops involved in a combat role on the ground. Take a look at this from josh earnest, the president ial spokesman. Out the option of deef ploying american boots on the ground in iraq and syria in a combat role. The commander in chief has ruled that out. But never happen. What we will need thats correct. Never happen up. Can say dempsey was talking hypotheticals. Odierno said 1600, the amount of troops we have there, is a good start. Gates saying, hes trampi intra himself, no boots on the ground. Are you worried about this split . No. Im surprised theres so much made of this. We often see splits between the president and their military advisers but the founding fathers, beginning with George Washington said, we have civilian control of the military. If you ask the American People, theres no debate here. The American People support the president s position. Im talking about 64 of republicans, 62 of democrats, according to pew what percentage of them say they dont think this is going to work . A large thats skeptical. Let me say, thats not true. What is true is a large percentage say they have confidence and then they have some confidence and a large percentage who say they dont have confidence. So, have you to get into the numbers. The key point well, its not as overwhelming as you suggest. More people say they have lack of confidence. In any case, its not a resounding belief that this is going to work. Correct. There never is. Were going into uncertain waters. What is clear is its not in the United StatesNational Security interest, want in the u. S. Militarys interest to get dragged into another longterm battle with combat troops on the ground in the middle east. And the president has 1600, to repeat, already on the ground in advisory and training roles. And we have engaged in 170 air strikes that have succeeded thus far in restraining the growth of isis. Thats the fact. Quick final word. Consider the difference between president s response to isis and the ebola outbreak. Hes sending a large force. Much larger than isis is getting to deal with this ebola outbreak. Why is he doing that . Hes doing that, i think, because he believes the United States is uniquely capable of mounting this effort against this disease. United states is undisputably uniquely capable of conquering isis but hes not putting the full effort into that at all, which is why, i think, that the majority who doubt the efficacy of the strategy do so. They can see this isnt a fullhearted effort. As has been suggested earlier, the Coalition Partners or would be Coalition Partners. We have to take a break here. When we come back, Roger Goodell tries to get out ahead of the growing nfl scandal over Domestic Violence. Will it work . Plus, what would you like to ask the panel . Just go to facebook or twitter foxnewssunday. Yes, we may use your question for those guys on the air. Check out all these airline seats. Lots of them, right . But when you try to get one by using your travel rewards card miles. Those seats mysteriously vanish. Why . All the flights you want are blacked out. Or they hit you up for some outrageous number of miles. Switch to the venture card from capital one. 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There will be changes to our personal conduct policy. I know this. Because we will make it happen. Nothing is off the table. Nfl commissioner Roger Goodell said he was sorry and promised big changes in how pro football handles cases of Domestic Violence. Our panel will be back in a moment, but first we want to get the latest from sportscaster and Fox News Contributor jim gray. Jim, whats the reaction inside the nfl community, the fans, the players, the owners, to goodells statements . We well, the owners are going to give him some time. Theyre firmly in their corner. I spoke to a couple this morning. Their quotes are, we have to try to get him past this. We dont know how we will. And someone said, no one including god could have handled this onslaught. The media has been just one condemnation after another since this press conference and since really the ray rice incident occurred. The fans are upset. And the players, particularly former players and players who wont come out and necessarily attach their names to it. Theyre upset theres a double standard. He can admit a mistake and say, im going to go forward. When they admit a mistake to him, they get punished, severely fined and suspended. One of the biggest issues has been the commissioners total control over discipline. He has been judge, jury and executioner. He talked about how often is on the table. Do you think he has to give up some of that control over disciplinary issues either to the players association, their union or some independent body . Commissioners are always reluctant to give up and cede any power. Baseball has a third party, arbitration, that maintains discipline which makes it much more consistent. Sometimes you dont get the discipline that the fans necessarily think is coming for the players because the arbitrators dont rule necessarily with the heavy hand commissioners do. Roger goodell has always been known as the enforcer, law and order type of commissioner who has handed out steep fines, handed out major penalties. In this instance thats why its all been so surprising pipts all selfinflicted. To give two games for that, no matter what the circumstances were, most people believe, in fact, all of the owners dont believe he saw the tape. To not have imagined what went on in there, based on his track record and history of being so firm and tough, its been inexplicable. Thank you so much more joining us today. Now, lets bring back our sunday group. We asked you questions for the panel. We got this on facebook from joe ping. Get off the nfls back. Its not the nfl headquarters problem. Its a player problem. We got a lot of facebook, tweets, like that, pig saying in effect goodell and the nfl are being made a scapegoat. I think theres something to that. Since when is it the job of a Sports League to police the private conduct, in this these cases, misconduct, of the players that off the field, outside the realm of football. This is something relatively new. Now, obviously the league and its individual teams have a reputation to protect and brands to protect. So, my sense about this is, this will come down to the sponsors. When the sponsors start to bail in large numbers, and youre seeing a trickle of it already, things will change. Look at the vikings this week. They reinstated adrian peterson. Then the sponsors, including Radisson Hotels which spoke of its commitment to the safety of children, weighed in and withdrew sponsorship and virtually overnight the vikings reversed themselves and took peterson off the roster. So, i think thats where you need to look to see the outcome of this. Both for goodell and the league. The National Organization for women, which had called for goodells response rather, resignation, was not the least bit persuaded by his News Conference friday. They continue to call for it, showing hes failing to show hes committed to Domestic Violence. The white house weighed in saying how deeply troubling this situation is. I would like to hear from the president on this. Hes a sports fan. He is someone who has brought athletes into the white house for events, used them to promote policy, the father of two daughters, sees women as a group thats viable for him. But the fact it gets to the white house shows how broad the concern is, how widespread the story has become and i think the nfl has to do something a bit more than a friday Afternoon Press Conference to get ahead of this. One thing goodell did in his friday Afternoon Press Conference was to express remorse repeatedly. Take a look. At our best, the nfl sets an example that makes a positive difference. Unfortunately, over the past several weeks we have seen all too much of the nfl doing wrong. That starts with me. Youre close to the baseball commissioner, to the mlb. How do you think goodell has handled this and your sense of this . Does he survive . He will survive. Hes handled it terribly and it doesnt matter. Were in a highly stylized indignation sweepstakes where everyone commits sociology in all directions saying players are made violent by this, college experience, on and on. The fact is anheuserbusch tells us its disappointed. Anheuserbusch spends 200 million a year on nfl. Last years three most viewed Television Programs were thursday night football, sunday night football, monday night football. Money talks. It will continue to talk. This will pass over and football will continue on its merry way. I think the problem is football. Football is merchandising violence and some spills over. We talk about what is the role of the commissioner. Part of the role is to protect the shield. Thats the nfl shield. Lord knows in baseball the commissioner has to protect the integrity of the game and the shield. If youre going to punish somebody, and you could say that has an effect on the game for taking drugs, dont have you to punish them for this kind of behavior . Certainly. Theyll do it, baseball will do it, nhl all will, as brett says, protect their brand because players come and go. The average nfl career is about four years. The league can do it. Its the job of the commissioner to provide continuity. Weigh in here. I think the commissioners credibility, i think your line of questioning was penetrating, chris, when you asked jim gray about, is he going to have to give up some of his power and authority . And i think thats exactly what he has to do. He has to get into a deal with smith, the head of the players union, at some point to try to reconstitute the players have a lot of voice. Boy f you get on twitter, the players have just been eating Roger Goodell alive. They dont like him. They dont like this judge and jury scenario. They think theres a double standard for him and for them. They think its his time for a comeuppance. Theres a problem there. I suspect as part of this ongoing resolution, one of the changes is going to be Roger Goodell is going to have an independent group that will help with discipline. Hes already established, he announced on friday, an independent panel to look at how they deal with these problems. I think that panel is going to get more power and the nflpa is going to have a loud voice there. I want to ask you, do you want to respond to this indignation pageant going on . Im a football fan. Ive been a football fan my whole life. Im going to go home and watch football today. Until you see change in our own behavior as fans, i dont think we should expect to see widespread changes to the nfl. The other thing ive heard a lot of my friends, younger women say, over the last week or so, they want to hear Roger Goodell and others talk about the people who have been victims. There seems to be a lack of attention and focus to what some of these women and now children have gone through. And i think that if there can be some some focus on that, that could maybe make this easier for women in particular to deal with. George, quick final word. Footballs problem is football. Its the concussions. We live in a bubblewrapped childhood. Parents put helmets on their tr. Theyre not going to let them play football. Thats an interesting take. What do you think . Should Roger Goodell step down . Let me know on facebook or twitter foxnewssunday wit when fixed income experts work with equity experts who work with regional experts thats when expertise happens. Mfs. Because there is no expertise without collaboration. Your studied day and night for her drivers test. Secretly inside, you hoped she wouldnt pass. The thought of your baby girl driving around all by herself was. You just werent ready. But she did pass. cause shes your baby girl. And now youre proud. A bundle of nerves proud. But proud. Get a discount when you add a newlylicensed teen to your Liberty Mutual insurance policy. Call to learn about our whole range of life event discounts. Newlywed discount. New College Graduate and retiree discounts. You could even get a discount when you add a car. Call Liberty Mutual for a free quote today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. Two years ago i had the best seat in the house as 2012 Election Results were coming in, sitting with to master strategists to look inside the numbers. Well be back together in 44 days. So, between now and then were going to talk about novembers key races and which part will control the senate with our Election Night space cowboys. Karl rove was the architect of george bushs championship. Joe trippi has run a number of campaigns. Welcome back. Good to be with you. Lets get an overview, whos going to control the senate. The new york times, the upshot says republicans have a 56 chance of winning the senate. Thats not exact enough for nate silvers 538. He says the gop has a 54. 8 chance of gaining majority. Karl, what are the republicans chances and what are the key factors . Look, i think its slightly better than that but not a lot better. The republicans are fighting on good turf. They have three open seats, for example, in red states that i think everybody pretty well concedes are in their camp. Montana, south dakota and west virginia. It is a dog fight in the rest of the country. Four states with incumbent, three, four, five, purple states, one open seat and so its going to be a very close contest. The dynamics are good for republicans, enthusiasm high, obama low, desire to send a message to obama very high. The one advantage democrats have is a big cash advantage. Theyve already booked between labor day and election day 107 million in television advertising. The republicans 25 million less. Joe, let me turn to you. Democratic chances to hold the senate and to pick up on specifically one of karls points. When the president has an Approval Rating of about 40 , why isnt this a wave election for the gop . Well, it should be. Look, itg8p should be in this environment a miracle for democrats to hold onto the senate. But right now, i would gauge republicans are likely to pick up between five and eight seats. If democrats hold it to five seats, it will be because of what karls talking about. A money advantage and also being able to use the obama get out the vote methods that were perfected in 2012. If they can actually generate that, theres a chance they they do have a miracle and stop the republicans from taking senate. Republicans need a net pick up of six seats to take control of the senate. Everybody seems to agree, and you heard karl refer to it, theyre going to win these three. Montana, where in the latest real clear politics average of polls, congressman steve daines leads by 19 points. West virginia where capito leads by 19 points. And south dakota where mike rounds leads by 13. 3. Do you agree all three of those states are gone, lost to the democrats . Absolutely. I dont think anybody looks at those races does not believe theyre going to be in gop hands in november . Yes. Two states now held by democrats that look pretty good, pretty strong, for republican takeovers. Lets put them up on the screen. First louisiana where republican congressman bill cassidy leads democratic senator Mary Landrieu by more than five points. Arkansas where republican congressman tom cotton leads democratic incumbent mark pryor by 2. 5 . How solid are those for the gop, particularly arkansas when youre talking 2. 5 points, that doesnt sound very solid. Well, except in i think the last poll out of the last ten polls going back to the beginning of may, mark pryor has led in one. And tom cotton has led in nine, i believe the number is. Look, we have a candidate in arkansas who is running against an institution. Mark pryor and his father, david pryor, both longtime politicos there. Cotton is smart enough he needs to run through the tape and i feel good about that one. Louisiana is likely to be settled in december because they have an odd november. If no one gets 50 , which is highly unlikely because there are at least three or four candidates who could get a significant slice of the vote, well have a runoff in december. That means the control of the senate, we might all have to wait until december to find out. Election night may not settle it. Let me look at a couple of potential gop pick ups from democratic states, potentially going to the republicans, that are pretty close. Let me start with iowa. This is an open seat in iowa and democratic congressman bruce brayly is up against republican state senator ernst. This is flat tied. Its a dead heat. This is going to be a donny brook. The interesting play here is does the money advantage and does the get out the vote effort the democrats have perfected, does it turn out more votes for brayly. The rnc have been trying to play catchup in the ground game with data. We havent seen that yet. Does that appear in this race as well . Interestingly enough, i dont think iowa has ever elected a woman to the u. S. Senate, republican or democrat. Or in the governor. I mean, just hasnt happened in any of the top races in8 iow. So, it will be interesting. Theres another race, potential gop pick up, but very close. And well put that up on the screen. Thats alaska. Incumbent democratic senator mark begich trailing former donor dan sullivan by less than two points. Thats a close one. Yeah, 1. 3 . Remember this, real clear politics average and the rest of these averages are lagging indicators. This race took a dramatic shift three weeks ago this coming thursday. Just before labor day, begich ran an ad accusing sullivan for being responsible for the Early Release of prisoners, including a prisoner who went on to do a brutal murder. Turned out, however, the prisoners were released by a clerical error by somebody months9rx recent polling dat indicated this has taken more pro sullivan on the weeks ahead. I want to put up a surprising stat. North carolina, generally considered to be a very likely pick up for the republicans in red North Carolina but the democratic incumbent senator, kay hagan, is up against the states house speaker. Hagan, who was thought to be in trouble, is hanging in there. No, this one, i think, we can put im ready to start saying if this trend continues, shes going to be reelected. The interesting thing about these races, with all these incumbents, when you look we know theyre in trouble if youre under 50 and an incumbent. You look atlas lass, you look at louisiana, you look at other incumbents. Theyre all in the low 40s or slight just slightly above that. Thats a very bad side for those incumbents. That means, you know, you got to start giving a push to the republicans there. But in this race, in North Carolina, it seems to be moving the other way. Now, as we said, the republicans need a net pick up of six seats and that are potentially in jeopardy. If they lose one of those they have to pick up another seat to get to their six. Georgia is in some jeopardy. The open seat there. Mitch mcconnell, the republican minority leader in kentucky is in some trouble. We want to focus on the most surprising state of all. A possible republican race and that is kansas. Take a look at this. With a democrat now according to the course, off the ballot, pat businessman greg orman. In the latest fox news poll, roberts on trails orman by 6 points. How much trouble is he in . I think he will prevail at the end. Sometime when youre running as an independent and say, i dont know who im going to caucus with. Last time i ran for office i was a democrat and i wouldnt have vote for obamacare. You get a little too cute. And at the end of the day, i think roberts will win. Not by the margin he should have if he had taken this seriously right from the beginning. It also shows an example of how races are affected by other races. The govs race in kansas is close. Late last week it was revealed that the democratic candidate for governor had been arrested, not arrested, he had been detained briefly a number of years ago when he was an attorney for a strip joint and the police found him getting a lap dance. Straight lace kansas, thats not a great credential to run for governor. No, i suppose, your thoughts about kansas and how much trouble pat roberts is in. I think he is in deep trouble and probably gone. Ive been out there. And once an incumbent starts to unravel, it is really hard to put that genie back in the bottle. You can hear what carl is saying. Theyre going to go after greg orman. Hes gotten a pass up until now. Theyll talk about things in his record. And i think greg orman will go after him in washington. Thats not a great place to be if youre in kansas and an incumbent. We have less than a minute left. What should we be at for those last 44 days . Well, i think weve got a pretty good sense of it. The democrats will try to hold this senate by trying to hold North Carolina, alaska. Trying to make an inroad into kansas and also, worried deepbly iowa and colorado. We havent talked about colorado but colorado is a very narrow race. Separate by. 7 . The latest polls are indicating movement, 48 gardner, 40 for the long time democratic incumbent, mark udall. So were going to see them forced in a number of places. We cant cover them all but i thought we did pretty well here. We want to thank you both. Well bring you back several times in these final weeks to focus on where the battle for the senate stands. Up next, our power player of the week. Master of espionage. [ hoof beats ] i wish. Please, please, please, please, please. [ male announcer ] the wish we wish above all. Is health. So we quit selling cigarettes in our cvs pharmacies. Expanded minuteclinic, for walkin medical care. And created programs that encourage people to take their medications regularly. Introducing cvs health. A new purpose. A new promise. To help all those wishes come true. Cvs health. Because health is everything. Cvs health. Are the largest targets in the world, for every hacker, crook and nuisance in the world. But systems policed by hps Cyber Security team are constantly monitored for threats. Outside and in. Thats why hp reports and helps neutralize more intrusions than anyone. In the world. If Hp Security Solutions can help keep the Worlds Largest organizations safe, they can keep yours safe, too. Make it matter. With up to 27 more brush movements patented Sonic Technology get healthier gums in two weeks guaranteed. Philips sonicare discover the brush thats perfect for you. agent ill walk you guys through every step. There are a lot of buyers for a house like yours. husband thats good to know. Over 12,000 financial advisors. So, how are things . Good, good. Nearly 800 billion dollars in assets under care. Let me just put this away. How did edward jones get so big . Could you teach our kids that trick . By not acting that way. Ok, last quarter. Its how edward jones makes sense of investing. Along with millions of other readers im looked on a series of spy thrillers. They come out once a year and as soon as you finish the latest book, you cant wait for the next one. Here is our power player of the week. I think that plot for me has always been secondary to establishing good characters. Daniel silva is talking about the secret to the success of his best selling spy novels. A series of 14 books featuring Gabriel Allon. He is a legendary israeli officer and assassin who happens to have a very interesting cover job. He is one of the worlds finest art restorers. You talk about him as if he is almost a real person. To me he is a real person. Think of my typical day. Im at my desk at 7 00. I write until 3 00 or 4 00 in the afternoon. I spend more time in his world than the real world. Silva says allon fixes people and situations. Whether it is al qaeda terrorists or russian arms dealers, or in his latest book, the heist, art theft by the assad regime in syria. How do you explain his appeal to millions of readers . I think that secretly, we hope that there are people like Gabriel Allon out there. As an avid reader of his books, i can tell you is part of the appeal is the details about the places he goes and his spy craft. I like to walk in gabriels foot stems. That journey has taken him from the cliffs of cornwall to the art restoration labs of the vatican, the kgb headquarters. Theres more to his process of writing. This is the heist in its original form. Written in long hand on legal pads. I write in pencil, not just any pencil. It has to be spaefk pencil. I like the Black Warrior number two. A form he journalist, he has narrated the tv news woman. And he has strong opinions with the world he writes about. How do you feel about the state of the middle east these days . It is a complete and utter disaster. Theres really no more syria. Theres no more iraq. We are going to face serious challenges there for decades to come. He says even Gabriel Allon couldnt fix these problems which leaves a couple of final questions. Your books are so popular. Why have they never been made into movies . Because of me. Silva says hes had plenty of offers but im very picky about it. I want to make sure that we get it right. And then the big question about any spy thriller. Do you know how gabriels story ends . I do not. Ive never really had in my mind a, that vanishing point out there where i wanted the story to end and then it goes black. Ive never come to that yet. I hope i never do, actually. There is no need to worry about that any time soon. Daniel silva is hard at work on those legal pads busy writing his 15th Gabriel Allon book. One final note today. The Washington Nationals clinched the National League east division this week and were pointing ourselves the official sunday talk show of the team throughout the playoffs. We even have our lucky jason worth garden gnome. So go nats. Thats it for today. Have a great week. In for lou dobbs. Keep it right here on fox business. Cheryl good evening, everyone. I am Cheryl Casone he in for lou dobbs. We have multiple stories developing. The director of National Intelligence admits that the white house underestimated the strength of the Islamic State while simultaneously overestimating it the strength of the iraqi military. The former obama defense secretary leon panetta says we never should have pulled out of iraq. And retired air force general outlines the pitfalls of the american strategy here tonight. And Roger Mcdowell finally raking his silence after a week of child abuse and Domestic Violence and drug possession