Starts right now. Liz good afternoon, everybody. Im liz claman. The markets are experiencing a little case of whiplash in just the last hour. Welcome to countdown to the closing bell. At this point here knows how we will close considering the fact that in just the last hour the dow meet made a sharp turn into the green. Right now the dow has reversed. Hanging on every single word that the fed releases. May Say Something during the 4 00 p. M. Hour. That will be the longest winning streak in four months. Down about 20, 23 points. If there is anything, its tech and health care, showing the most strength. The stock turned positive. Investment released at 2 00 p. M. Eastern, some fed members said that we need further proof of labor market and perm before we start cutting the bond id from the u. S. Economy patient. The markets lets get to technology because it is a player. One of the big winners, hewlettpackard. An analyst upping the rating from sell all the way up to a buy. He also doubled is price target. Now, shares are well below that right now at 25. He is a believer. The stock moving higher. We need to get what a move. Black gold surging past 105 per barrel, now at 106, a drop by more than 20. The price came down about supplies came down about 9 billion barrels. All this action calls for the best team in business. On the floor of the new york stock exchange. Look forward to maybe 55 minutes away. We have been bernanke about to give a speech which frankly has nothing to do with our economy. Q a after. Are waiting to see if bernanke will talk bonds. The banks of the that charles. Forgive me, i cannot help myself. Looking for any more clues. Possible to bring. Liz nicole called the looking at . Reporter an exciting and dramatic day. The dollar has pulled back given a sense of relief to the market and some of those. Liz as we mentioned, these are real names. Applied materials of 4 . Many of these names are showing real strength. That was weird. We now have the role of health care. Those were to sector is doing exceptionally well. Technology turnaround. Health care, take a look at some of the leaders in the health care of including a few biotech says well. You can see, amgen is about 4 . Alexia and farm up four and a half . As you noted, a lot of winners in this group when it. Liz a stunning move in oil. 106 per barrel. As we said at the top of the show, we do not know where or oil is going to end up by the end of the weak realestate stocks in general. We dont know where this session will end if. Rollercoaster moves in the last hour. Lets get right to the floor show. You get first dibs. This is gc. While we saw a drawdown of 9 Million Barrels which is very bullish for prices, over the past two weeks, 20 million. People using oil. Share sure enough, supply goes down in price goes up. These numbers over the last couple of years really had not meant much. The algorithms and what have you, i used to blame it. You and i had that discussion, but you cant blame this on the robots. It is the supply and demand structure. The demand is there. Therefore the market is going to go higher. Just got exasperated. Some people need their perils up front. If elected the spread front to back, up over 2. 70. Like, six months out. Phenomenal. Maybe less than a dollar. The spreads really moved out. People need those perils upfront. It is almost going back to the future where we are having this kind of trade. The people who really need these , said that is all use of here today. Liz of the you just did a yogi berra. It is adorable. What is not is the uncertainty. These swings are not that big, are they . In the equity world. I think we saw the spike right after the Federal Reserve released, and we saw it coming right back again. I think we learned pretty much nothing from the fomc minutes. We will be back focused on earnings. Wells is going to report. I think we will be looking back at the Financial Sector which is a little bit weaker. Liz it is, but lets talk about what they show. Here are some of the takeaways that i saw. Any further proof of labor market improvement. I already mentioned that. The discussion of normalization of bond purchases, meaning cutting them down, 85 billion per month is premature. There are others who are way more. Who wins on this one . I personally dont believe that we are going to see any tapering this year. I dont. If you need further proof of labor market improvement we got it on friday. The fed is notorious for not making sleep sweeping conclusions. A just order to talk about the data they are looking at. Theyre going to need a lot of evidence, especially what is going out globally. The imf reduced predictions of Global Growth and the u. S. Cannot do it alone. The fed will make the mistake of tapering to send in having as join europe and a downturn. Liz also, half of that members want, and this is what the minutes showed, what does asset purchases to end. We will see about that. Good to see you. Thank you so much for joining us on the floor show. Real clues about whether the fed could begin tapering. 85 billion in monthly bond purchases. Just about an hour from now have we give more clues . It is a speech about the 100 years of the far reserved. Its about a half an hour on the history of the fed, but then about a half an hour of questions from some very sharp economists send you know, we have the minutes which is plenty of grist for questions. We are expecting that at least someone will ask about the chairman to try and draw down on this because what have we had since the june meeting . We have the unemployment report on friday, which was much better than expected, showing about 200,000 jobs in june, upward revisions to april and may showing 200,000 per month. It might be decent. Lets go to the fed minutes. Several members judged that a reduction in asset purchases were likely soon be warranted. The fed launched this latest round. And ongoing increases in private peril which increase their confidence in the outlook for sustained improvement in labor market conditions. As you said a few minutes ago, later it turns out they pulled all the numbers, participants at the fomc and half of them said that there would like to start tapering bond purchases later. Thats the exact term. 200,000 month, ongoing increase in payrolls that the fed is looking for to start tapering. Liz the needed to see 150 to 200,000. Liz six and a half percent unemployment. We are not there yet. That is to start increasing the fed funds rate. I have not put a number hunt tapering. The closing bell ringing in 45 minutes. If you are worried about what emerging markets to do to hours, its not all doom and gloom. Where ecs investment opportunities. There is one etf were going to show you that is rather stoic. The economy has transformed our economy creating hundreds of thousands of jobs. Five years. Whats next in the revolution . And speaking of them, how about the apple, the company as part did all. Were back in just a moment to see if he can hold onto its leaders. Its a brand new start. Your chance to rise and shine. With centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you can do just that. With our visionary cloud infrastrucre, glal Broadband Network and Custom Communications solutions, your business is more reli. And with responsive, dedicated support, we help you shine every day of the week. Liz local investors are facing a huge dilemma, and, yes, if you own u. S. Stocks, the business overseas, this includes you. You are facing this dilemma because there are storm clouds over the worlds secondlargest economy, china, after some grand trade data overnight. It is piling higher and deeper. Should investors worry about what i would like to call its that time the creep. The problems creeping into your stocks. When you have almost 4 trillion in assets under management, youre doing a lot of work. Right now Dow Jones Industrials is moving lower, but it does not matter. Black rod global chief investment strategist is on it. He has that much. It out fox business exclusive from san francisco. How much do you worry about china and if you had to pick one headline whether its the middle east or what is going on in japan with economics or china the stars to creep into investments, is it china . Well, its certainly a good candid. A couple of things going on with china that investors want to be aware of, the first of which, the economy is slowing. Not necessarily a bad thing, but it does mean that this country that is being an engine of growth is going to contribute less. The other issue is the chinese Banking System which is what people were worried about, the aches and a bad loans, credit growth. If it is a problem is not just a problem for china. Its something that could impact the broader Global Financial system here. Liz im not hearing you really say that ben bernanke is the number one worry. Today we are getting news out of the fed, the minutes. How closely as a guy like you going to be watching what he said . We will be watching closely. The market is being driven by Interest Rates and fed policy. We expect that to continue, but i think that the truth is if the fed will begin to taper which obviously has been unnerving investors, its only going to happen in the context and the improving economy. The economy is Getting Better which is probably positive for equities. Liz lets get to equis and talk about what you like. We can talk about the Exchange Traded funds extremely popular. You guys do a lot of it. Faugh certainly there are opportunities. It means youre not buying at the highs because we know that some of them have been beaten down, but there is one in particular, what is in this . You tell me why you like it so much. This is an interesting play. The term front your market, basically this refers to countries that are not yet in the emerging markets. A lot of countries in africa, the middle east, what is interesting about this part of the world, two things. Growth is often accelerating. These countries tend to be very on correlated with a global economy. They add diversification to the portfolio. Markets that were hard to access. You can do it now. They have held up much better. Liz here talking about some of the most widely held. So there is a little bit more risk. We have telecom and a bunch of other nationals. Just remember, this is a little bit more risky. Absolutely. Going out on the risk curve here. One thing to point out for investors is that while it will be volatile in the individual companies, what does help the overall portfolio is that these are companies and countries that are not that integrated in the global economy. They dont all move in the same direction at the same time, which is often the case with other parts of the equity market liz lets say people are too scared to go into kuwaiti banks. How about u. S. Companies . Where is there real opportunity . There are a couple of places. We still like the large and may cap names. The cheapest part, the most profitable. And we think that is a place for investors want to be overweight. Energy, a 14 month high and oil. Energy prices are not going down the read the rest of the complexes. Stocks are cheap. A relatively good yields. That is another part. Liz i want to put up another one. People want to go into financial names with a little bit of a twist. This one just piles and all the brokerdealers, the cme, goldman, a beautiful rate of return. Good to see you. Thank you so much. Thanks again. Liz black rock global chief investment strategist. He is okay with that. The closing bell ringing in 39 minutes. 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With creditcards. Com, its easy to search hundreds of cards and apply online. Creditcards. Com. As the next five years ago nobody said there is and not for that. Today everybody says that you can think apple which launched a mobile computing revolution with it with its first app five years ago it started off with 500 but it has grown can you guess . 900,000. With the originals are still the best seller. Facebook a un shows seem. We were the First Business in the work to have a yen app. Their celebrity making some of them free to six super brothers swarthy and sorcery even in tractor g1 negative dj. That normally sells at 20. Users of data loaded 10 million app in the first weekend now it is 50 billion it has created a 10 billion economy, some of the most popular apps are making moves on their own. With the facebook apps moving higher in the United United Kingdom then yelled does adding its app. Users cayenne great reviews in delivery orders in one place on yelp. Here is the fiveyear picture of apple it is up considerably but we dont have is apple at the high were used to be. We are doing that leader. Later. Could the regulators go against john, for what the charges could also be brought against him . He will not be charged criminally in the matter. Break this down the u. S. Attorneys office charges criminally the ftc, the civil case he will not get a criminal case but the civil case could be bad. From one vendor stand my sources are telling me thats their modeling a potential case for steve cohen against core design failure to supervise. But heres what happens. You dont have to charge fraud to ban him from the securities industry what the sources are saying is that the sec is clearly weve been up right and being up the case against steve cohen to be in him. What does that mean . And does it mean he is going to jail. Either way the pain is similar. Can he manage his own money . He can but would be the operation . Probably not. Remember the outside money help to pay for sec capital. More than 1,000 people working there. He would be out of the business it would be a huge blow. Liz that he can still trade his own money. Under this scenario but there are other scenarios out there. The base to my soorces i do know that the notion of the volume from the securities business with failure to supervise is what the securities and Exchange Commission is the quickest way in the easiest way to deal with steve call when you have to prove civil fraud and they are working on that what people should take away from this it is the same charge a level against john porcine. The exact same charge. operation of control, we believe it reaches a fraud because we dont think you purposely did anything specifically bad, but you were so negative that we want you out of the business. You are done. John course and does not have the cash that cohen has but his wife is fairly wealthy. Liz the current wife . Her wife is well off with the back of the envelope analysis. I barely know about his politics but i actually like him. But i once did behind the envelope analysis how much he is worth the and when you start wacking held the divorce settlements in the money he spent on campaigns for new jersey governor, a u. S. Senator and some people think what he lost in the markets, it starts to narrow down but the takeaway is not john core design but steve cohen. What theyre looking at is the sole space civil cases. Liz but he is happy with that . I spoke to a mutual friend and he is probably pretty abbey he is not being charged by the sec suit like this was the story in the journal. Heres the thing if the Portfolio Manager does not flip and he has not yet there is no criminal charge. But there are other methods. Now lets get back to this. Liz wait. It would take a lot for me to put on spandex in front of you but i will on sunday along with cheryl cassone we will spandex all three of us in the name to help our troops. Veer team fox business to compete in the new york city triathlon. I will wear these to raise money for a cause to get us into spandex building custom mortgage free holmes for those veterans returning from iraq and afghanistan. But for the 26mile bike portion chris will ryan and cheryl will swim. Here is to your donation will help. The first u. S. Soldier to survive losing all four limbs in iraq. We presented him a custom home elevator, and certain countertops to rise a lower coming in entire kitchen to be operated to hit a command on the ipad. We have not forget forgotten him. I would be so grateful if he would consider helping helping, anything you have. Change in the sofa cushion. Building homes for heroes. Org. He says all the elephants are too small outfits are too small. Actually wore them. Charlie, here is a challenge i bet i could fit into these. I already donated but i will quintuple my donation if you put those on friday for the show. This friday . [laughter] liz you cannot lose weight by this friday. How much . Liz five grand. I will put this on if you will give many many. That is an amazing, as. I dont mind making a full of myself. To have future in the age of Digital Transformation a question on the mind. Look at these guys. To cool for school. If youve got it, you know how hard it can be to breathe and man, you know how that feels. Copd includes emphysema and chronic bronchitis. Spiriva is a oncedaily inhaled copd maintenance treatment that helps open my obstructed airways for a full 24 urs. You know, spiriva helps me breathe easier. Spiriva handihaler tiotropium bromide inhalation powder does not replace fastacting inhalers for sudden symptoms. Tell your doctor if you have kidney problems, glaucoma, trouble urinating, or an enlarged prostate. These may worsen with spiriva. Discuss all medicines you take, even eye drops. Stop taking spiriva and seek immediate medical help if your breathing suddenly wsens, your throat or tongue swells, you get hives, vision changes or eye pain, or problems passing urine. Other side effects include dry mouth and constipation. Nothing can reverse copd. Ems passing urine. Spiriva helps me breathe better. Does breathing with copd weigh you down . Donwait to ask your doctor about spiriva. Liz investors are not liking the taste of the young brain and earnings after the bell analysts are forecasting 0. 54 revenue of 2. 9 billion but Nicole Petallides the issue is china one of the biggest drivers within 50 percent of the revenues come from Kentucky Fried Chicken . And poultry is highly in china. Now it is to the down side although we are live looking for the revenue they will see the First Quarter down 20 because of the avian flu and that was an issue. Also if they did well with the door rigo tacos and the canteen double but the china story is so key for yum brands. Kentucky Fried Chicken also a taco bell. So natalie china but also here at home but the forecast is key with guidance Going Forward because the turnaround will occur in the Fourth Quarter so whether or not yum brands can continue with that guidance coming forward but it chicken with avian flu spooked everybody they were not eating Kentucky Fried Chicken that brings over 50 percent of their a annual revenue from china. Liz it was very popular so they do believe the chinese will get back to the chicken. Liz made with been looking very relaxed her stock has done incredibly well but when of 300 media moguls who were asked at summer camp the in annual sun valley conference kicks off. Cheryl stanford, meg whitman , most importantly we have denis meal there listening for the gossip and he is joining us from sun valley idaho. What have you heard . The thing about it all day long they have the session in the nfl, mary page the ceo of googles gave a presentation with his troubled voice but the real action is at night at the bar where the reporters are not allowed. We stand outside to wait for them to come now it is like a scene from the star wars bar is geeks intrigues in millionaires. I went over there last night. Usas sony chief to talk to the ceo of time warner. There has been a lot of break up the net company and sony is under pressure to break up the entertainment business. Also the sony ceo having to worry about that possibility comcast kisio is here with his son looks like he cloned himself with his double cater. The largest ad Holding Company in the world was there. And eric schmidt talking with zuckerberg carrying his could be in a wearying a. Then amazon came in kind of late and then harvey wednesday in the movie maker but basically space got to see late is the chairman of Liberty Media who wants to shake up the cable business to have the 32 billion takeover over time warner. When youre go late night i went over to him he would talk about serious accident and everything he said came true in the next month. Lets see what malone says tonight about his design on time warner cable. It ought to be good. I hope he goes out to the bar tonight. Liz and is even there this year . And dont think he is on the list. But they said his options are doing fine 170 million and he took that money. Had to get an invitation . It is interesting to see how they decide. The most important thing is you provide fees or a future company that will go to allen and company for banking . Basically a 32 yearold billionaire was in the bar last night. He did pate albee is here is essentially because he is prolific. Liz a lot of people were not invited because they have no fees to allen and company. The closing buildings in 16 minutes. Or your investments in troubled . Interest rates are climbing so if you have treasuries, watch out could that be a good thing or are you just scared . we have two people going headtohead to make the case. I want to make things more secure. [ whirring ] dog barks ] i want to treamo dogs. Our business nee more cases. Le announcer ] where do you want to take your business i need help selling art. [ male announcer ] from broadband to web hosting to mobile apps, Small Business solutions from at t have the security you need to get you there. Call us. We can show you how at t solutions can help you do what you do. Even better. Liz has not been a good for the stock market as they pulled record amounts out of the bond funds with concerns of rising Interest Rates. Note surprising start to see these jobs as soon as you get a solid job people get nervous or higher rates a kiss of death or just what it needs . As being in our experts with two very different perspectives jefferies chief Market Strategist along with Raymond James head of fixedincome. We have the fed minutes ben bernanke speaking in 20 minutes we will take the cue with a and peter berndt is there but on friday coming in better than expected we see the 10 year yield jumped precipitously how dangerous is that for peoples portfolio . If you look at fridays number in particular, it came on the day after the fourth of july almost like the day after thanksgiving. The velocity and the volatility was great. But then we dropped about 17 basis points because there is value and that move made a difference. It is hard to figure out if youre on a trend straight up or for the value that is created in the buyers stepped in just like todays options. There is still lot of value. Liz we should stress that kevin is a little bearish but david you are not. You feel that the prices are healthy . Lets be clear i am bearish on fixedincome but not for the Economic Outlook for the risky asset stocks and real estate. Take this in perspective. We drove nominal Interest Rates to low levels in the fed did it on purpose to get out of assets. That is what the portfolio channel was all about. We took these rates to levels that were unsustainable and unwanted to guide people back into risktaking and it has been successful. It is time to move on. People got confused about the goal of the fed is to reflate the asset and rekindle the spirit and the economy and to be an entrepreneur again not to hideout in the Bunker Holding the treasury bill. Liz you would start to worry if what say 10 years . Rates have been steady that would indicate the fed is doing something which they are not and this is where the play is. Tactically with the 10 year it is higher but i am concerned where the market is headed. Anything nor geoffrey over 60 days is where i will get concerned the market has lost the real purpose to go 3. 25 by year end but it has to be supported by the data that i dont see. Liz david, what is your level . You would get nervous if what . There are Different Levels of nervousness but at the moment we look at the 10 year yields were kevin was describing heading up that that 3. 25 or 3. Five. I would have told you in 2006 or 2007 the economy would fall off a cliff you would have looked at me like i had three heads. These are not restrictive levels. Liz what would be . Given the growth that we have today with the expectation would be in the four or five and a half region may bfi would get worried it wouldnt happen quickly but also you have to be very careful how you get there. We have 123 back that we have not had too many lets let it settle. Liz you are okay with the highyield investment . I am sympathetic that has little risk stay away from duration. Liz would you want to stay away from . I am back up on the duration curve you are pretty safe there but a couple of things to remember were still in the fragile economic environment and to much of the move will be painful on the economy. Liz thank you to both of you. We will be right back with closing bell. You make a great team. Its been that way since e day you met. But your erectile dysfunction itld be a question of blood flow. Cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be Ready Anytime the moments right. You cabe more confident in your ability to be ready. And the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet proved t treat ednd symptoms of bph like needing to go frequently or urgent. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. Do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause unsafe drop in blood pressure. 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Yum is on deck to release earnings in a minute or two. How has the stock been doing not necessarily over past couple weeks but the past quarter . Were watching yum brands in the last quarter. Also for taco bell and the like. Ashley hp, leading the dow as it gets a big upgrade from citigroup today. That comes after an analyst upgrade yesterday. Hewlettpackard was the big laggard of 2012. It was a big performer. Kudos to meg whitman for that. Liz she looked happy by the way in sun valley. Pandora has had a good couple days sporadically through the past month or so, that is seeing a big slide. One problem was disappointing june audio metrics came in recently. That put a little pressure. Ashley not my favorite store but who am i. Investors not shopping at best buy, nicole. I love best buy and tvs and tablets and electronics at my house. Truth of matter you have concerns at Cleveland Research the fact this is seasonally low period but particularly, it is weaker than, they had expected. That is not a good sign. Weakness in television, pcs, tablets and the like. [closing bell rings] liz looks like three out of four. The s p just slightly above the flat line. This is a race horse, neckandneck. 1110 is above the flat line. Could settle higher. This has been quite a whiplash session. Ashley it has. Pretty volatile especially after the fed minutes. Look at the front page headlines the latest fed minutes showing many fed officials want to see more signs unemployment is picking up before they begin slowing down bond purchases. They say it may be appropriate to end the purchases later this year. Liz soaring of oil, settling at the highest level since march of last year. Here is what happened. Oil rose 2. 9 . Why . The latest data showing u. S. Oil inventories dropped pretty precipitously by 9. 9 Million Barrels, way more than expected. Price jumped. Ashley where did