Jack welcome to baer robs round table barrons round table. Im jack otter. Higher rates could be here to stay. A chief economist will react to the blowout march jobs report, plus why hes been saying rate cuts are not coming at all year. Then the retail night if mare that jack howe has labeled underpants armageddon. You heard it here first. Then the Surprising New snack coming to mcdonalds. We begin with our expert panel and three things investors ought to be thinking about right now. On the barrons round table, ben levisohn, teresa rivas and jack howe. So, ben, the market was down this week, but you say it was misunderstood. It was down for a different reason than most people think. Yeah. I mean, if you just looked at how the market did, the s p 500 was down about 1 , its worst week since january 5th, and then you looked at the jobs that data that we got on friday, 303,000 jobs created, a lot more than expected, you would have thought, uhoh. People looked at the market, looked at the data and said the feds not going to be cutting rates, and the stock market would drop. But thats not what happened. We had a great day on friday when we got that jobs number. I think people were kind of excited. It was down more because of oil going up and that signals maybe geopolitical concerns are weighing on stocks. The other thing is stocks have just gone up a lot, and people are looking for any excuse possible to knock em down. Jack i guess were maybe back in a good news is good news situation where that strong hiring number says, okay, good economy, ill buy stocks . Yeah, i think thats right. When yo look at whats happenins happening, everybody wanted these rate cuts, but if the economy is strong, theres a good with chance that the Strong Economy will translate into strong sales, translate into strong earnings, and really all that investors care about in the end are those earnings. If the earnings go up, were going to do okay. Jack next week well get another inflation print, and i think uniis probably off the a table june is probably off the table now unless something changes, so july, you think thats where there could be one . It keeps getting adjusted out. At the beginning of the year, we were supposed to have seven rate cuts. At least thats what the market was pricing. Thats kept going down, and now its getting pushed out. And i think thats exactly whats happening. The market is looking at the day da data. Theyre making the changes, but for right now it can handle it. That cpi number, if it is too hot, thats where its a problem. People can still make the argument that inflation is coming down even if its slow, but if we get another blow outnumber, that could be a problem. Jack teresa, we had an earthquake in new york on friday, a much worse one in taiwan, humanitarian concerns first. But theres also an Economic Impact here. Certainly. Obviously, were still counting the humanitarian toll of the earthquake, but the economic fallout is something thats being considered from beijing to washington, d. C. Taiwan was already a flashpoint between the u. S. And china, and if now you add in the fact that its a supplier for a huge number of big tech companies, and they need semiconductors from taiwan semi and all the other corporations there. So its something that everyones watching very closely. Jack and taiwans not the only hot spot. E south korea as well. Exactly. We also have concerns from south korea because their proximity to north korea rattles investors nerves, and they have a longstanding conflict there. And it shows how vulnerable Global Supply chains still are. Jack there is a solve to that, but its not a quick fics fix, right . Exactly. The Biden Administration is trying to incentivize more companies to make chips in the u. S. In places like arizona, in ohio. But thats just going to take time. Theres been delays, so its not a quick fix. Jack all right. Meanwhile, jack, bad news from a couple of drug makers this past week. Well, you can contrast biogen which has been an awful performer, they had some bad news. The fda wants more information on their experimental alz a heym everybody alzheimers drug, and then herb, that ones hitting fresh highs. Theres been approval in europe for its keytruda cancer drug and also in the u. S. For its hypertension treatment. Investors usually say whats the likely hood of new revenues, how does that compare with the coming patent expirations and they make a decision. Weve got a cover story in barrons this week that says investors in general might just be too bullish on the entire big farm that pharma group. Companies have been poor longterm performer s, and there are tens of millions of dollars of patent expirations coming by the end of the decade. A company like fiers, as an example, would have to add another company the size of eli lilly to make up for some of those expirations. Not going to happen. If you suffer from excessive bullishness on big farm a marx i think this cover story will cure you of it. Jack fiers was selling at the same price it was on friday back in 1998. Real quick, one bright spot is the obesity drugs, but youre probably going to tell me theyre not yeah, theyve already run up, right in and were about ten years away, plus or minus, for lilly and novo nordisk for them facing the same expirations, so we might go true the whole cycle again through the whole cycle. Jackie surprisingly strong the hiring is dimming investors hopes for rate cut. My next guest doesnt expect a single cut in 2024. He explains next. Today, my friend you did it, you did it, you did it. Centrum silver is now clinically shown to support Cognitive Health in older adults. Its one more step towards taking charge of your health. 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Earn up to 5 cash back on business essentials with the chase ink business cash card. Make more of whats yours. Jack march saw a blowout jobs report topping expectations by more than 100,000 jobs. The economy had 303,000 last month, and the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 3. 8 . What does the latest data mean for the feds next move . My guest has been saying he does not think the Federal Reserve will cut Interest Rates at all this year. Joining me now is apollo chief economist torsten slok. Great to see you again, as always a. Thanks for having me. Jack youve been driving the higher for longer bus for a while. I think that fridays data point moved the market a little closer to your point of view, but youre not saying fewer cuts, youre saying no cuts at all. Whats going on that a convinces you of that . I think whats important is were seeing a very significant wealth effect. The stock market is up about 10 trillion since november the 1st. Were seeing credit spreads have tightened, Interest Rates where they were in october. On top of that, weve seen crypto prices also go up. These things are providing a very significant tailwind to the economy. For example, the 10 trillion increase in the stock market, compare that with last years Consumer Spending total in the u. S. I was 19 trillion. So we have a very significant tailwind to the economy and Consumer Spending over the next several quarters because of easy financial conditions, because of the stock market going up. Swrk jon and interesting point that i saw one of your notes which is that when crypto goes up, people feel more willing to spend that money. Do they think of it as house money or whats going if on there . Yeah, i think thats very important. Papers are showing the marginal to consume means your tendency city to spend out of gains in crypto are basically double than to spend out of gains in the stock market. When crypto prices go up, you tend to see also more consumption spending as a result. So remember the Crypto Market is roughly a little less than 3 trillion and, therefore, has been a fairly significant wealth gain for a lot of households. Jack do you remember when we used to talk about the fed hiking rates and wed say, well, theres always a lag. We dont see it now, were going to see it later. Its more than two years, we still havent seen it. Whats going if on . Thats right. People at the fed would tell you normally it takes 1218 months before Interest Rate hikes begin to slow the economy down. That is mainly the case through the Unemployment Rate. The Unemployment Rate has gone up a little bit, and that has had some impact certainly on consumers who have more debt. But the other part of the transmission of Monetary Policy and what the fed is doing to the economy is exactly whats happening to the stock market. So when the stock market, remember the total market cap of the s p 500 is about 43 trillion. So when that goes up 25 in a matter of 5 months 25 if that is a very significant boost to the amount of money people spend at restaurants, on airlines, hotels, concerts, sporting vents. So, therefore, we should expect to see the data more support to consumers spending more broadly over the coming quarters, and that will come more quickly than the traditional channel of pushing the Unemployment Rate higher. Jon okay. Speaking of unemployment, you send wonderful starts charts almost every day. Friday mornings chart shows the effect of immigration on the unemployment market. Can you explain that dynamic . I think we have the chart. Thats been a very Important Development more recently where a lot of the jobs that have been created in the economy have been partly because of an increase in immigration. And what the chart is showing is that the significant increase in jobs weve seen in the last three months has been coming from foreignborn workers that have found jobs. So as a result of that, immigration is helping the congressional a budge office has been equipmenting this Budget Office has been estimating this, also the brooking institute, they have all been estimating that immigration is playing a role whereby we will simply have more job growth with simply because immigration has gone up so much. One way of looking at the employment report that we got on friday was this was also driven by the fact that immigration is having a tail wynn at the moment. Jack lets talk about the markets real quick. Where with does one want to invest in a higher for longer, stronger than expected economy . Fixed income into bonds and ec by des. First, of course, that means you should be cutting coupons. You should be benefiting from the level of Interest Rates being higher. You can do that in perfect if markets, in public credit, private credit. The spread is very high by historical standards, in particular in private credit. You see yields that are at very high levels. So the first answer is what should you do as an investor . You should be in particular in frontend fixed income in the first 3, 5 years in in the yield curve and cutting coupons and benefiting from the level of yields being higher. In particular, if eventually the fed will be cutting rates, this is a good time to put money into the frontend of the yield curve meaning fixed income that is giving a nice yield. On equities, of course, there is a very Significant Development because rates higher for longer means you should also see the economy better for longer and, therefore, earnings before for longer. That would argue for stock market going up. But at the same time, now you also have Interest Rates higher for longer means that companies have to pay more in debt service ising costs. That would argue for the stock market going down. So there is a tugofwar between the forces that are driving equities at the macro level at the moment. Jackie the good news is weve seen ad broadening in the stock market, so its not just the mag 7 which are not doing so welt, but i think 80, 75 of stocks are above their 200day, is the thats a good with move. Yeah, absolutely. And the mag magnificent seven have seen some widening. It used to be that they were moving up and down together. Jack not anymore. Weve begun to see tesla, apple, alphabet start to underperform relative to, in particular nvidia, of course. So that widening in the gap is making me doubt a little bit the a. I. Story is beginning to fall a little bit apart because its becoming more complicated which means we as investors need to do more homework to be the right stock pickers and credit selectors, pick the right assets which, of course, will be outperforming relative to those jack thats why we have you on the show. [laughter] thanks very much. We appreciate it. Thanks for having me. Jack some fashion stocks are going out of style. Is lou lou lemon on the wrong side of the trend . And why is china pulling ahead . Thats all next. Muc jack the apparel business is struggling in the u. S. Consumers trying to save it by pulling back on purchases or switching to cheap foreign alternatives. Jack, give us the skinny on the trend that the you have dubbed underpants armageddon. Well, you know, calvin klein finish the stock pvh, the maker of calvin klein, that was down 22 on tuesday, and hanes was down 12 . I thought maybe Artificial Intelligence made underpants obsolete. Im not a technologist, ben. Turns out its europe that was the problem, and its apparel more broad ifly. Companies like vp corp. , tapestry, ralph lauren, they all sold off mid single digits. Pvh got hit hardest because it has the most or european exposure of the group, and its eliminating some low margin channels, and thats really a going to bring its sale sales lower this year. Its a turnaround in progress, so that stock had been up more than 50 in the few months prior, so this is or sort of giving back some of those easy gains. Jack and underpants are a little smaller in europe. I dont know if that ill check my sources. [laughter] jack okay. Lets switch to one of the few bright spots in this industry, 1017yearold company, relieve vies strauss 107. Levis strauss. It bounced back on thursday, Great Results taking market share, moved up guidance. It called out roose fits for men and ladies and said they were both up 40 recently. Loose fits. And if levi is right, then lululemon has a problem, they make ethos 100 yoga pants, very tight. And they just had earnings this past week. The guidance, not so good. And i think the concern has to be, and this is coming from jeffreys, is youre going to have people looking elsewhere than those tight yoga pants that have been so style thish for so long, and i know people have been waiting to see them go away forever. And he compares it to under armour which is another company that at one point was very popular. All the kids were wearing it, and it seems like overnight it just stopped being the thing that you had to have, and their stock has been terrible ever since. Well just have are to keep an eye on it and see if this is it for skinny pants. Well, this isnt anything new because skinny jeans were up one of the first styles that went by the wayside during the pandemic. So im not surprised to hear that wide leg is in because, for women, thats been the case for several years now. But explain to me, you know, youve got these baggy pants that are in. Why are the tops so tight . Was we have to show you that were still because we have to show you that were still hot. [laughter] simple math. Jack lets go more broad, teresa, to the rest of the retail industry. Thats your beat. What do you see . Well, weve seen since the pandemic the biggest retail players have been getting bigger, but other companies its been sort of touch and go depending on what part of the market youre in. Now, consumers have been surprisingly resilient the entire time, but its undeniable that americans are under pressure. We have seen Consumer Confidence dip recently. There was an uptick in unemployment, and polls show that people of all political persuasions are really stressed out about the november election. All those things make people less likely to shop, and weve seen a lot of retailer stocks suffer because of that the. Jack another interesting dynamic, i remember when h m came in with fast fashion, now theyre looking over their shoulder at even faster fashion. Exactly. So weve all heard of fast food. Fast fashion is Something Like that. Its trendy, cheap and really quick turnaround. So much more speed over quality, lets say. And exactly, you used to be able to get a trendy top at h m for 15, thousand you can get one for 5 from shein or temu. And people are also buying as theyre scrolling social media. Thats a huge problem for a lot of retailers that that now have to compete with these new entrants that have extremely low prices. Jack im guessing the 5 shirt doesnt last too long, but i dont know. Definitely not. Jack jack, or ive got to ask you, can Jeremy Allen White save calvin klein . Maybe. Hes the star of the bear, and management called him out four times, hes the new face. Hell really the new to have so on the billboards for calvin klein. They say its the biggest cutthrough campaign in all of the fashion industry, so that sounds good. I mean, i think its a little bit of an unrealistic appearance standard. This is supposed to be about body positivity. I say give me, like, emeril la gas key lagasse, guy fieri. Im thinking out loud. Jack im thinking whats wrong with the old victorias secret catalog . Teresa and ben have a pair of investment ideas, and jack has a Surprising New item thats going to appear on mcdonalds menus. Stay right there. Liberty mutual customized my Car Insurance and i saved hundreds. Thats great. I know, ive bee telling everyone. Baby liberty. Oh baby liberty. How many people did you tell . Only pay for what you need. Jingle liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Baby liberty. No, my dentures uncomfortable dracula, lets fight back against discomfort. With new poligrip power max hold comfort. It has superior hold plus keeps us comfy all day with its pressure absording layer. Time for a bite if your mouth could talk it would ask for. Poligrip. Business. Its not a ninetofive proposition. Its all day and into the night. Its all the things that keep this world turning. Its the gotos that keep us going. The places we cheer. Trust. Hang out. And check in. They all choose the advanced Network Solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. Powering more businesses than anyone. Powering possibilities. Operatic music you were made to find inner peace. We were made to track flight prices to paradise. Jack jack, it may be a good thing that skinny jeans are on the way out because krispy kreme has a new distribution channel, and theres about 13,000 of them. Its a big one. Sometimes high finance is complicated, jack, but this is not one of those moments. Krispy kreme, were familiar with the product, the chocolatecovered ones, the glazed ones, delicious. Too little distribution, and the stock has many poor performer, it had recently been trading below its ipo price. Mcdonalds has been testing Krispy Kremes in kentucky, and it turns out people really like to buy doughnuts through the drivethrough. You eat em, its simple math. So theyve done well, now theyre going to roll hem out nationwide, right . And Piper Sandler calls that a gamechanger. The distribution, number of doors, as they say, could more than double here in the years ahead, to its going to be pretty easy to increase sales. Piper sandler upgraded the stock to overweight. Dont you dare make a fat joke about that, jack. It says that shares could hit 20 from here. They were recently 15 and change, so some pretty good upside there. Jack ive seen Krispy Kremes on sale in a gas station between the vaping and the candy yeah. Still take em, by the way. Of. Jack mcdonalds sounds better. Ben, actionable ideas. Im looking at a lithium miner. This has a not been a good time for evs, tesla this week came out with a terrible delivery report dropping down to a support level thats frightening. But if you look whats happening with metals, prices are going up. Copper, gold and silver are going up, and i think at some point youre going to have to see list are yum prices go up despite this overproduction that the has happened there can lithium. And withal a, marm down so much from its high in 2022, i think this is a good time to start nibbling on it. Its an interesting moment for it, and if that price turns around, alba marl should too. Jack next week were going to have to ceo of mercedes on the show she. Rees saw, whats your idea . They say a rising tide raises all boat. Record bookings in cruise operators and big price increases. Unfortunately, carnivals stock has been left out of the party. Now, its certainly not the best cruise operator, but its made a lot of strides. Its really catching up. And after a recent selloff, i think its time for investors to get their feet wet. Jack and leisure and hospitality is where its at. Thanks, guys. To read more, check out this weeks edition at a barrons. Com. Dont forget to fog out on x barrons online, and thats all for us. Well see you next week on barrons round table
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