Welcome to barrons roundtable where we get the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead, im jack otter israel strikes back, tensions in the middle east after israel carried out limited strikes in iran responding to the flurry of missiles and drones all asked Navy Admiral Michael Rogers what happens next tax refund on the way Many Americans feel the urge to splurge with their money but appearance were taking a look at best ways to spend and look at your return shocking ceo salaries of the top paid executives and how their reasons stack up against yours we begin with the expert panel and three things investors ought to think about right now on the barrons roundtable then levinson andrew bary and elizabeth obrien, there were not many happy ports in the storm near entire market except with reprint of the dow in the red it was an awful week for the s p 500 dropping 3 the worst week in 3 it all fell in that the person happen since 2020 but there was a massive selloff in tech with the nasdaq finishing 5 then you felt it by the end of the week people were unloading what it worked and it started off with the fears of not cutting rates and geopolitical its like we need to sell and 2020 was a pretty bad year for a few months there in the market it was tough. What are the things that normally happens with geopolitical fears, stock selling often the bond rally that did not happen. It was interesting market rallied on thursday and the two year yield hitting 5 that was assigned to investors that rates will be higher for longer and interestrate decisions on may 1 we know its not going to do a rate cut them but were hoping maybe in june and who knows if we get a rate cut this year. Jack to answer the question and who knows whether well get a rate cut this year, two data points next week that can give a little bit of an indication the First Reading of First Quarter gdp the atlanta fed indicator is putting around 2. 9 at the hot economy yet the thing is pce and the pce gives it favorite indicator and for the court to come down a little but to 2. 7 yearoveryear from 2. 8 yearoveryear if this comes in a benign fashion you can see the market rally theres a lot of risk people dumped a lot of things but if they come in hot and confirm all the other numbers that could be pretty tough. Jack a big earnings week that will move market we have five of the seven magnificent seven report next week. We have an indication from netflix that had strong numbers but the stock clobbered. Despite netflix with big power growth and betterthanexpected earnings they said they would stop subscriber growth and weaker revenue guidance seemed to weigh on the share. Jack tesla is reporting next week that is that about 40 on the year. Tesla is having a tough time one of the worst s p 500 theyre having trouble selling cars and investors will look to eon elon musk on future sales prospect. Jack elon musk will look to shareholders to agree to 45 billion of the pay package thatll be interesting video will probably get it. Other Companies Including microsoft, off about, amazon and also meta, what you watching. Microsoft is the Biggest Company in the world right now so the big question to maintain the earnings momentum that got it there investors are good be looking for an uptake on the new copilot a. I. Software. What is the news there. Meta is up 35 for the year and concerns for the margins and speaking of a. I. This packs week they launched a meta a. I. Chabad and headtohead with the chat box with openai, google and microsoft. Sean. Jack only good news and te shiny thing in the market is called. The metal gold is one of the better Asset Classes up 15 hit 24 an ounce and why attire is tougher to determine normally when you have higher market Interest Rates in the u. S. Like you had this year gold goes lower but it goes higher and you had redemption from some of the big u. S. Gold etfs like the spider gold trust, the gld, what seems to be happening you see stronger demand from outside of the United States the Central Banks are buying including china as well as asian investors and people may be sensing that there could be longterm inflation problems in the u. S. When gold goes up a little the minors go up a lot. The minors have continued to be a disappointment this year the gds one of the big ets is up 10 lagging the gold itself into a debate minors are bread this year end theres been some Company Problems including a dividend cut but the stock is looking pretty inexpensive historically. If you want access how do you recommend people get it. You can buy the gold etfs. Theres also u. S. Gold coins and you can buy the mining stocks themselves which including gdx and the big minors including barrick and numa. The gold is double though the 1980 hi if you and just for inflation but some people like it in the storm. Israel is fighting back the country responding to irans aggression with initial in this zone this week navy commande harlem has everything. But i couldnt find pilates anywhere. So i started my own studio. And with the right help, i can make this place i love even better. Earn up to 5 cash back on business essentials with the chase ink business cash card from chase for business. The road to opportunity. Is often the road overlooked. At enterprise mobility, we guide companies to unique solutions, from our team of mobility experts. Because we believe the more ways we all have to move forward the further we all go. Bounce back fast from heartburn with new tums gummy bites, and love food back. It starts with a grill. But it becomes so much more. An extension of your home. Not just a weekend retreat, but an everyday getaway right in your backyard. Newage makes it possible with beautiful allweather cabinetry, grills and appliances that transform your backyard into a complete outdoor kitchen. Visit newageproducts. Com to book a free Design Consultation and create the Outdoor Living space youve always wanted. Jack israel nontreated limited a strike and a military base Senior Iranian officials reportedly say tyree and has no immediate plans to retaliate to help us understand the complicated dynamics really the middle east, retired u. S. Navy commander admiral michael rogers, great to have you on the show, thank you for doing this. Great to be here, think of an opportunity. Jack lets start with iran and israel they are shooting at each other but what is interesting how restrained their actions had been, why are they pulling punches you think they open lines of communication. It appears that each side feels they need to use the strike as a method of sending a message to the other in the message i believe is a deterrence, hey you need to stop escalating both iran and israel are of the view that the other has been engaged in escalatory action so each felt that they needed to respond with a strike, lets hope that the conclusion of the latest round is message sent, message received, lets not respond in kind any further. Jack you help negotiate the deal that put Irans Nuclear ambitions on hold, does the recent shooting of missiles at israel suggest that the closer to a bomb now that the deal is been abandoned . I dont see the connection between the israeli strike but i will say i think israel selected the target era in iran in no small part because the area has several significant sites associated with iran nuclear room even though the sites do not appear to been the focus or the target of the israeli action against iran. Jack interesting. I want to switch to the other front in the israeli wars. You were called in by the idf the Israeli Defense forces to give them some advice, what did you tell them . I was asked to do an independent assessment as part of a group of retired American Military leaders about how we would assess the effectiveness if you will of the idf activities in gaza and what i saw was the military, very professional attempting to minimize casualties but i also saw the military that perhaps needed to step back and think about what was it doing to ensure the security and safety of the citizens of gaza now the israel had removed the previous mechanisms of security and stability in the form of hamas and govern gaza and the importance of humanitarian aid in ensuring the aid not only enter gaza but made it to the citizens of gaza and needed it wherever they were located in trying to support the International Effort that is trying to ensure the safety of the wellbeing in the sanitation and health if you will of the displaced palestinian cities in gaza as a result of israels conflict with hamas has been forced to leave their homes. Jack is like colin powell you break it you only know israel kind of owns it. I want to pivot to ukraine where its widely reported that without help from the west then have a lot of trouble defending themselves during the summer fighting season, what is at stake for the u. S. For the western allies if russia is able to actually and next a third of ukraine. Three things come to mind, number one it would send a signal to putin that he could continue to pursue these aggressive actions including the use of armed force against neighboring nations. He is invaded ukraine twice and previously invaded the neighboring nation of georgia on the other side of the boxy so he showing a willingness to use force and disregard the sovereign rights of the neighboring nations. I think a defeat in the u. S. Inability to provide the support that we promise to ukraine number one emboldens putin, number two is sent abroad message to others around the world that perhaps you can get away with these kind of acts of invasion if you will or the use of force against international law, thing about china and taiwan as an example that is not a message that we want the rest of the world to pick up i think thirdly a lot of nations around the world and all the National Security choices should i create a longterm partnership with the americans in western europe if they seem to be unwilling and unable to execute their promises over time, is that the kind of nation we want to part with with those of the three things that come to mind. Before that you go, almost out of time i want to ask you given your nsa experience about comments by fbi director Christopher Wray he said the chinese hackers have gained access to the infrastructure and waiting for just the right moment to deal with the devastating blow, that is kind of scary how big of threat do you think that is. It shows received a significant change in chinas calculus with respect to the amount of risk that they are willing to run. The cyber activity against the United States and the fbi director wray is trying to point out what the government is calling a typhoon with the government found chinese uploading of destructive software and components of the United States electrical grid, that is really worrisome and suggest that china has decided in the best interest to be more aggressive against her infrastructure in the sense that they are preparing it appears to potentially disable at the time and place of their choosing. Jack it is a scary world, thank you for your service in helping us defend it and thanks for explaining today. The given opportunity. Turn your tax refund into an investment how an influx of cash can help you g jack 67 million americans have gotten tax refunds in checks are still going out. Its tempting to spend the cash but the money is a great opportunity to get your finances in order and make smart investments. How much cash are we talking about. The average refund is 3000. If you wonder where your refund is you can go to irs. Gov and check the wheres my refund to tool. The dow jones launched smart money if repairs interpersonal finance of the ongoing Financial Literacy initiative in the spirit of Financial Literacy, what are the smart money moves to make. If you have any savings in the bank, this is a great opportunity to get that started, you can get Interest Rates between four and 5 at online highyield savings account is a great place to start and you might think ill put that money to start into her my Credit Card Debt but if you dont have any cash cushion in unexpected expense comes appear to perpetuate the cycle of debt and interest put a little money in the bank maybe 500 or so and then tackle the Credit Card Debt and put it toward your Credit Card Debt and if you have the basics you can move on to a great opportunity to make a contribution to your ira and put in money for retirement and if you have a Health Savings account you can funnel money there and also a 529 College Savings account, but a good moneplaces to put your money to work. Jack i might take a little issue of not paying off the Credit Card Debt that the 17 Money Market Fund i say put everything in their future borrower get your card later, go ahead and do so but our viewers are checking the boxes long ago we want to know what else to do with their money, any investment ideas. I like laggard sectors in the market and i point to the smallcap sector of the u. S. Stock market as well as emerging market stocks. For instance in the smallcap the russell 2000 index is out about 4 is ten Percentage Points behind the s p 500 you can buy, etf on the russell 2000 as well as the s p smallcap index, emerging market has been logging for a decade and are barely higher in the last decade a number of etf in mutual funds including the iem gtf or vw oh etf. For people worried about exposure to china this etf emerging markets. Two or 3 and their very much outoffavor particularly right now the emerging markets. Jack what would you recommend. I minister with gold ive been a fan for a while, this run is interesting were hitting new highs, maybe not for inflation but there hitting new highs and right now you can get with the average tax refund gold is 2400 announce you can get an ounce for less than the average refund that is not a bad place to be. The other thing i like cash 5 yield letter out there you can get the highyield accounts and go to a Money Market Fund, you can even go to treasury direct and by bills yourself in that way as andrew told us, you had to pay state taxes on that and you can even go to an etf like bil the spider bloomberg atl that the simple way to do it and it a volatile market is not a bad idea to have a little bit of cash and if the market falls you can put it to work in the mark market. Jack a quick idea from an advisor in colorado springs, alan roth loves the inflation protected annuity return but he doesnt like annuities so he built his own and his idea, he has 10000. 6710 year tips, ibi j is an easy etf way to do that and he put the rest in Stock Market Index like spy or bti. By his calculation of the market falls by 50 over ten years, highly unlikely, he would still keep up with inflation in the normal stock return is in 8 after inflation return on that investment which is kind of interesting. Elizabeth your market ideas. Value stocks that it been under a cloud for a better part of a decade but some say it might be the time to shine because s p 500 is up so much for diversification it helps to throw money to unload part of the market. Jack thats a good idea. A nonfinancial broccoli if you get the check elizabeth, splurge a little bit what would you buy. 5 or something is your hardearned money coming back to you, i need a newark bag and a purse im going to get that. I would say im a big fan of broadway in a hot new musical called stereophonics and im eager to see that. Jack with places on broadway you need the refund. I like to play around with my synthesizers at home and i grab myself a synthesizer and pop in my case and make some noise. Jack im going to buy a plane ticket somewhere fun. Business. Its not a ninetofive proposition. Its all day and into the night. Its all the things that keep this world turning. Its the gotos that keep us going. The places we cheer. Trust. Hang out. And check in. They all choose the advanced Network Solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. Powering more businesses than anyone. Powering possibilities. luke so. 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Com realfood Fisher Investments at Fisher Investments we may look like other money managers, but were different. other money manager how so . Fisher Investments were a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client best interest. Fisher Investments so we dont sell any commissionbased products. other money manager then how do you make money . Fisher Investments we have a simple management fee, structured so we do better when our clients do better. other money manager your clients really come first then, huh . Fisher Investments yes. We make them a top priority, by getting to know their finances, family, health, lifestyle and more. other money manager wow, maybe we are different. Fisher Investments at Fisher Investments, were clearly different. Jack proxy season which Means Companies have to reveal the pay packages for ceos who got the biggest box. Behrens did a story on the pay packages based on a study which is a pay Consulting Firm and the ceo salaries last year up over 11 to 23. 7 million. It is a big number in the highestpaid ceo was hawked ten abroad, he got paid 160 million mostly in stock, people complained about ceo pay and a lot of it is justified but as broad, theyve delivered the stock is up fivefold in the past five years other notables include tim cook of apple who got paid 60 million the stock did not do very well and microsoft got paid nearly 50 million but thats been a big winner. Jack what about those that there was an correlation between performance and pay. One notable on the lowend worm profit of Berkshire Hathaway gets 100,000 a year and that pay has been unchanged for 25 years and is talked about the dynamics and Corporate Board rooms that lead to big pay packages and increases he says Corporate Board members dont want to rock the boat and anger the ceo and the pay consultants at the ceos bring in are really going to recommend lower pay. Jack he says if you want to get invited on the board making waves at the other board youre on is not going to help you. Later actionable ideas what you have for us. The apartment of labor is expected to announce a new role with advisors to new standard you might assume your Financial Advisor acting in your best interest but thats not necessarily the case across the board so i have a word for you it is fiduciary if youre considering hiring a Financial Advisor ask if youre a fiduciary if that means yes theyre dutybound to put your interest out of their own. Jack is like a doctor or a lawyer. It should be a yes it should be a know its a yes or no. What is your advice. Im looking at united rentals, this is a stock that rents Construction Equipment theyve done very well this year but like Everything Else it got really beaten down this week, this is a good time to look for quality stocks like united rental. I think right now its looking pretty interesting. Jack not attack name, 3 00. [inaudible conversations] maria good sunday morning, everyone. Thanks so much for joining us this morning