The Proper Development of ukraine during the war and is already showing significant results, and if the world cooperates between or among itself, it will be able to achieve a lot. Because there is no need waiting for actions actually provide results and er, it all depends only on us, thank you very much for your attention, thank you for your support, true friends, thank you and kudos to ukraine, kudos to the heroes. Well , lets continue the topic of the economy, provided the continuation of the war of attrition against ukraine, the russian economy will last only until 2025 , and the flow of weapons to the aggressor will run out in 2026 or earlier. Ivan usom, he is the main consultant of the center for Foreign Policy studies of the National Institute of strategic studies and an economist, so we are joining him late in the evening, ivan. Thank you for joining us in the marathon. Dont sleep for the sake of our viewers, listeners, what do you think about this statement of our head of the gur, is it really that this tendency to exhaust the resources of the Russian Federation can play an Important Role now in the 23rd year good evening studio good evening tv viewers do you know in in principle, i am sure that this year the economy of russia, lets say, will encounter very big problems, but this does not mean that i will be in the next 224th year and, as mr. Badanov noted, in 2025. Why do you know that the russian economy is traditionally surplus economy, and one of the constituent elements of the influence of sanctions was that it turned into a deficit, or rather, after four months, it is necessary to explain to our viewers how a surplus economy differs from a deficit economy with some simple examples, please. Yes, a simple example of a surplus is when your income exceeds your expenses. That is, you spend less than you earn , and in the case of russia, it is income from ee oil from gas. Exceed your expenses. This is good. Any family understands that they earn more than they spend now, even before the transformation of the russian economy in that it spends more than it earns, and it is a classic situation when a country faces a problem, for example, ukraine there are partners who help the country with money, and what is interesting in ukraine is not only a loan of this gram , the one that does not need to be paid back, or rather , the americans give it. That is, it allows the country , lets say, to solve the lack of money , for example, again, we take ukraines budget per pump per year in our country, half of the expenses are covered at our own expense, half at the expense of the help of partners in russia , there are no such partners well, of course, it has belarus , it has iran, north korea, but none of these countries will give it funds for in order to cover it when this deficit will really be so significant that problems will begin. What in your opinion can this lead to . See the example of recent weeks, and because of the fact that this deficit arose and the Russian Federation is already forced to include savings. One of the components of which was the cancellation of subsidies to companies that sell fuel in russia, this led to the fact that prices began to rise. And where there is fuel at some gas stations, fuel has completely disappeared. Why . Because the companies that sold them received subsidies at the expense of these small pears. They want to start to beat themselves, they did not decide to make it disappear , that is, the economy is facing a problem when they seem to be an oil country, but there is more fuel. But it arose precisely because of the problems in this budget deficit, because it needs to be reduced. Therefore, something is also neglected this means that there will be no additional investment costs , that is, there will be no spending on the development of the country. So that the problem of the russian economy is that the gdp is shifting to the sphere of production of goods and services not related to consumption and investment in general, then gdp it is either consumption or investment and when you say that we cannot consume anything at all and we do not make investments for the future, this means that everything that is produced by dew disappears instantly. And what is produced, you produce tanks, they produce it for the war, but it immediately reaches the front. Well, not immediately, but it disappears quite quickly thanks to the armed forces of ukraine ivan im sorry, there is such a terrible joke about an alcoholic, er, who comes, he was fired from work, the children are probably happy, the father will drink less now, and he says no, children, now you will eat less, this is what im leading to, because ukrainians are now at war with the Russian Federation, the russians will have less money, they will feed their own population less, but it is not a fact that they will produce less weapons and less create new horrors, new crimes on ukrainian soil in particular, such a scenario is possible that even this reduction of the surplus, reduction of money in to the Russian Federation will not lead to any qualitative changes regarding our war, see definitely russia will spend everything to the last minute on propaganda as a component of this war at the same time when there is nothing in your refrigerator then we dont believe the tv, and it doesnt help the government to manage its population. Lets just say, they dont watch tv. Its growing. Lets just say, certain revolutionary sentiments, which by the way, we saw in june of this year when mr. Prigozhin decided to go to moscow and something, i dont i saw that he was stopped by the population in rostov, certain people , of course, even on the contrary, yes, rather on the contrary , that is, there is a request from society for a revolutionary change of power, and if russia will go as it is , that everything is for the front, everything is for propaganda, which provides the front, then the people because of the fact that there will be no food, they will not believe the propaganda and will support the next one, then they will want to reach moscow, but remembering the experience is similar to free, they will stop that the russians will throw off their power well, we can for years if for decades thank you, it was very interesting ivan uz , the chief consultant of the center for Foreign Policy research of the National Court of strategic studies and an economist was on the air, they talked about economy, and now lets talk about international politics. Today, we will add to the broadcast oleksandr matsuka, the head of the Un Security Council secretariat in 20092016, and we will talk about what happened not only in genasom bleo, not only at meetings in the rammstein format, but also about the statements that were made different politicians and i would like to start by the way with the un, there was a statement regarding the fact that the president of the United States of america, joe biden, may put forward a proposal to increase the composition of the Un Security Council by adding 5 new members to it mr. Oleksandr thank you, first of all, for joining its late in the evening before our broadcast. In your opinion, is this really necessary . And how can it improve the situation in the un in general, or can it make this body more effective precisely in cases of such challenges as russias war against ukraine . Well , first of all, this is not a new proposal. In other words, these are the five countries that biden proposes to add to the permanent members of the Security Council. It is already heard by many. First of all, secondly, he talked about it before his speech in the speech. He said about expansion ee Security Council but he did not name these countries, and this is a very important matter. What is the matter . As i see it, it is more, you know, so that germany, japan and three brics countries are already obtained. To the audience, where did this information come from according to the telegraph, this edition explained according to their ee sources that we want to include five or six new permanent members , in particular india, brazil, germany, japan and the south African Republic of south africa, india , brazil are the brics countries that is, it is like this zakyd ee in the russian orod lets say that a the United States will be ready to consider and support these countries, which are the members of the Security Council . Get the right at the bottom and like all the other permanent members although it is although it is not a fact that those who did not promise them but the problem is not you asked if it will somehow change the effectiveness of the Security Council this is the main issue that is why the problem of the Security Council is not that there are few members to the number of delegations participating in the discussion is limited, and the problem of the Security Council is that one delegation can block any decision of the rb and this is not going anywhere because any delegation, as before yes and after that, no matter what, they change eh only from the beds in the ward eh and one rioter can block any decision of the eh Security Council and therefore it would not be effective in solving issues of eh war and peace so it will remain ineffective, unfortunately. Why is this done in your opinion . Well, besides that to please this country and to show that the usa is ready to support them in the international arena, the fact is that the United States now gives me such an impression that they are betting on india as a certain alternative to china, that is , the chinese have been rushing for how many years have been rushing with their one pool, one belt, one path this is the concept of an Infrastructure Project through china now, and President Biden said this in his speech, now actually, well, a very , very similar Infrastructure Project is being offered to india, that is, an alternative to the chinese project is actually being offered and this may be evidence that the United States is betting on india as a global leader, and that is why they are bowing to india , lets be safe. Hindus call themselves very often they like to call themselves democracy. In the world well, it is, according to the number of population, it is certainly so, there is an interesting question here. Ivan the expert and i were just talking about the situation in the russian economy , and i remember how the ruble fell very much this summer, including, uh, because of the fact that the russians there is a lot of money in indian rupees hanging around, and that is, to what extent does this great democracy, as you yourself noted, affect the Russian Federation, do you think there are any real chances for india to sail away economically from the Russian Federation a little, so to speak, and thereby increase the pressure of sanctions on russia well, in india, the main interests of india in relation to the economic interests, sometimes in relation to the Russian Federation. There were two points these are Energy Carriers and uh, weapons with weapons is already a question. I think it is closed for everyone because everyone saw what russian weapons are, that is, in this case, there was a loss of interest. It seems that they even refused certain contracts that they had already concluded before, and what about Energy Carriers . I think that they will work with them in such a way that now the next stage of sanctions is coming, it begins when eh in a collective measure and i say the next one the United States starts working with countries that continue to maintain eh economic relations with russia now we have already seen that sanctions were imposed on Certain Companies in uh, in countries neutral to russia, that is, this pressure will be it will easily increase, but india needs to be given something. India is a big country and it is a big economy. They need to be given something, and i think that these proposals for Infrastructure Projects and Political Support are such here are curtseys in the direction of india in order to separate it from russia economically , in particular, today at the Un General Assembly , in addition to our president , turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke, and if we are talking about countries that maintain relations economic relations with the Russian Federation, we must not forget about turkey, in particular, today there was information in reuters that turkey will purchase coal from occupied donetsk and luhansk in 2023, that is , it is not just conducting economic relations with the Russian Federation, but actually helping the russians to export ukrainian property because coal this is ukrainian property. And please tell me why there is no pressure on turkey from the United States of america right now and whether it should be done in the Current Conditions when we have i think that erdogan is written impeccably on the screen , it is very difficult to put pressure on him, and he is a person who is specific for everything and goes to certain turkish campaigns. Dont forget that turkey remains a member nato is also here. There are certain restraining factors. I think that they do not allow, lets say , to press hard enough on turkey, but the pressure will be there. One way or another , i think because of no, no, not because of government but through Turkish Companies it will increase because everyone understands that erdogan is profiting from the fact that he is playing on this ball, well, it is demonstrably balancing, in fact, playing on the side of russia. He is openly profiting from the same grain. By the way, it is also clear to everyone that Grain Processing is going on in turkey, they they get very, very big money from this, they sell flour already, well, that is, yes, that is, the situation, we will follow its development, in fact, what can we say here and it is difficult to make any predictions, this is also clear to mr. Oleksandr thank you for the expertise, oleksandr matsuka, manager of the secretariat of the Un Security Council in 20092016 was on our live broadcast and while we are moving on i would like to note that unfortunately the sumy region is marked in red on the map or airtoair alerts, and in addition to the Luhansk Region of the autonomous republic of crimea, please disregard the safety rules and i hope that everyone, the night will be peaceful and we will move on. It flies despite the work of the means of treason of radioelectronic warfare, it affects the manpower and equipment of the enemy , this is how the backfire drone works. Their development was shown to the correspondents of the public kherson region. Preparation of the drone for launch continues four minutes later. Start three after the drone took off. The squad leaves the launch site to wait for its return from the task. It is a bomber. Under another task , adjusted ammunition weighing up to two kilograms each inflicted damage with very High Accuracy somewhere around 25 meters in the moisture of a consolidated detachment without strike aviation armed forces each other, we let each other fly, and that is why we have to break through their rep zone and guide them every year in their rear. That is why this aircraft was specially designed for this task. The pilot is using a pneumatic catapult and not manually. Backfire and we would have the appearance of this, in principle, it is made independent normal , into which the program is sewn, which flies out , the infection, the coordinates are nested. It works very accurately, plus or minus a meter two it happens that we talk directly after exiting the combat mode, the backfire returns to the set point and lands with the help of a parachute , we are satisfied with the completion of the task , says boeing. Even before it was put into service with the ministry of defense, we had already made several aircraft. The commander of the drone says now we are at war. Everyone does his job, each cell of the work, what he has to do. He does it for the duration of the war. But after the war, it is clear that we will follow our paths as civilians, and this we are motivated by Valentina Gurova social news kherson region she is a highway thank you for agreeing to record an interview with us and the first question actually concerns the World Trade Organization, why do you think the matter came to the World Trade Organization, or is it really a matter of principle for us the moment to sue is a fundamental moment for us to reach an understanding it is necessary to understand that the situation with the ban on the import of grain to poland and other four Member States, i. E. A total of five, started back in april last year, that is, when poland first introduced the national ban and then in may was transferred to the level of the European Commission in june and updated in connection there with a different regulation and it was valid until september 15 for five Member States and on september 15 it was agreed that this mechanism will be replaced by another control mechanism which will be controlled by ukraine together with these Member States and for us. It is important that this agreement is implemented. That is, our main interest is to ensure that the national bans of the already members will be lifted and we also thank the two Member States of romania and bulgaria for agreeing to this situation was not imposed on these national bans, instead , a joint ax mechanism of verification and approval of the supply of these four goods to these five Member States together with these five state members will operate, this is a very complex mechanism trade. Therefore, it will not be a significant flow of goods , and for us it is simply important in order for us to be able to show that there is really some demand. A more complicated mechanism but in fact it is not far from well it is controlled er controlled trade for some time in order to show that the ban is not necessary to slowly move away from the ban and return to the normalization of trade due to the fact that it was announced there in the last on the day of the ban, there was such a sharp reaction from ee poland and other countries , we are in principle very glad that the two countries immediately reacted normally, we are working with them, we are now working to establish this bilateral ee communication mechanism , we are also working with all the others states with the European Commission, so i hope that this week there will still be good news about the fact that we are actually launching this mechanism that allows us to avoid formal and full bans in our bilateral trade, so in fact it is our the main main tool of the cellular lawsuit is only one of the elements of this situation and our reaction to the emergence of national bans, we are proud that national bans this was also a reverse reaction on the part of the Member States therefore, this is actually a secondary problem in the issue in the work that we conduct ideally we want to avoid we want only and exclusively to reach an understanding with our neighbors, therefore, in principle, this is our main priority, and we are doing everything to ensure that taras, please tell me this lawsuit to the wto, conditionally speaking, he wants to find an understanding , but will this lawsuit not have some kind of reverse reaction , why couldnt we try to really sit down and negotiate ah, well, you know, so that it doesnt spoil it for us, there is a concern that it doesnt spoiled our relations with our western partners, such is poland and especially in the matter of the provision of military aid, and we have many immigrants in this country. I think that we have very good relations with poland, with romania, with bulgaria, with slovakia and hungary have nuances, but the positive is that it is also a neighboring state with which we have good trade relations, at least if not politically, that is why no one is trying to destroy them, on the contrary. We want them to continue to develop and our mutual trade with poland to develop very, very much strongly, it is simply necessary to understand that since april, that is, not since last friday, but since april, we have been in very difficult relations with regard to specific goods relations with poland is a drop in the ocean. And we simply have different opinions about what is the cause of problematic ukrainian farmers , and i am ready to repeat that we are in favor of polish farmers developing ukrainian farmers developing of different sizes in poland there are large farmers and Small Farmers ukraine has large concerns, Small Farmers , there are a lot of them. Everyone has their own situation and a lot of problems. I think that if we measure ourselves by problems, ukrainian farmers still have a lot of them, but our position is that lets take care of our farmers without a ban and this is our only cancer , its not even a problem, its just a different look at the same thing, the same thing, the same problem , thats why its happening in very emotional words because poland banned imports and it is also necessary to understand that all our actions are only a reaction, not to him, but the poles react on the contrary, they are popular, they prohibit us from reacting, and we have actually been in conversations with them for at least six months in various situations, and i hope that this time too we will reach understanding is very fast, fast, much faster than any trials in the World Trade Organization will last for us, are there any plans for us if they do not agree to the companys proposals, and again, the court is plan b, yes, plan a is to agree on normal trade control mechanisms which allow and clearly guarantee the interests of polish farmers and clearly give opportunities to ukrainian farmers to trade. That is, it is a plan, but in reality it is a plan and the same for poles. That is, it is a plan for ukraine and for poland, and the bans that were introduced were introduced by poland this is plan b, our answer is through the police or an antidiscrimination investigation , this is also plan b. Whom do we want to avoid in reality almost at any cost . Used by poland, it is wrong in relation to polish farmers in the first place, and formally in relation to ukraine, because the whole world hears the information that poland has banned the import of goods from ukraine. Although i think that there are many other more Constructive Solutions that we presented the European Commission, which was agreed upon last week. In fact, it should be understood that the court is plan b. That is, it is not our main tool, and we would like to abandon it as soon as possible, and we will abandon it when poland understands that what ukraine proposed is actually a compromise, this is such joint control over the aa trade circulation of these four goods, and therefore i think that er we will not have to spend a lot of time in the World Trade Organization er bringing legal evidence in relation to well defending his position in fact its just really like plan b and garandio fault lawsuit in case