Transcripts For DW To The Point 20220910

Mention in proteins, new russian world, Foreign Policy doctrine. Were asking rushes wargames with china and india, the start of a global arms race. Hello and welcome to to the point. Its a great pleasure to introduce our guests. Alex say you super heads the Russian Program at germanys free ditch Ebert Foundation based here in berlin. Michelle to a man is Foreign Policy correspondent for the german weekly site. And sarah par go is associate a fellow at the German Council on foreign relations. The d g, a p, with a focus on Russian Foreign and security policy. Alexei, the drill this week was entitled to foss stuck, which means east is that a signal to the west. It is, but as also the normal denomination of the final military exercise in the russian calendar of military exercises. So weve had the stock before. Its not the 1st one of its kind. Its supposed to be a show force. I find it quite meager for that respect. Its a magnitude of order smaller than the last one. It doesnt show us any new maneuvering techniques. We dont see any Lessons Learned from the ukranian campaign, so its supposed to show that the Russian Federation can wage a maneuver like that on the other side of the continent at the same time with fighting the war and maintaining normalcy at home. But it fails to doing so. And whats the significance of putting inviting a few friends to join him . Well, again, theyve been there before and, but of course the russian Foreign Policy tries to portray the geopolitical landscape as one shifting towards russian dominance on the origin continent at the same time. And look at how exactly the indian, the chinese, but also the other National Contingency integrated into the maneuver. Its also quite well, its the week the chinese have their own camp. The structure of the exit is unclear. They dont have a really common enemy. Its about border patrol, so its not a big. I wouldnt say its a big thing. Ok so heavily discounted there by alex a sarah, how do you see it . We keep hearing that the Russian Military is under strain protein isolated the economy found a ring. But this drill wouldnt necessarily seem to indicate any of that what i would actually fully agree with alex a. So what we see in terms of the scale, its not as big as it used to be, but still we can maybe draw some minor conclusions from this exercise. So for example, if we take a look at the naval exercises in from the japanese coast, that is something that the japanese government is very, very of because they actually are still having a territorial conflict with russia. They also how are facing growing problems, china as an emerging low power. So the corporation between china and russia is something that japan really looks at in detail. So these kind of common naval exercises are something that is also designed to signal to tokyo rushes, a new no limits. Partnership with china is not new. Mikhail, it was cemented in fact, as the olympics opened in china already before the russian invasion of ukraine. But what was india doing at the party . Do you, what is it significant . Would you attach to the fact that Indian Forces also took part in this drill . I think that was important for Vladimir Putin is to show that india, the very populous nation on the southern asian continent is part of that new alliance, which basically he sees in terms of the rest of which is the majority of the world against the west. This is what he wants to put on display. I found it very interesting that you saw nations like india and china and russia there in a maneuver. And it was clearly visible that they were not in alliance, that you had rather armies being cobbled together for this, for these exercises. Whereas other nations and Central Asian nations who are aligned with russia in the Military Lines were conspicuously absent. So this is what i found interesting and if i can just stay with india for a moment, china and india are not normally best buddies. Did it surprise you that india took part here . And no, it didnt surprise me because india actually ties like other nations, turkey, for example, to take advantage of the situation. They havent joined the west and sanctions, but they buy, for example, russian oil as a discount prices at the moment. Some of it they sell on to other nations making money on that. So they basically try to find their position in a shifting geo political field. And thats why they have joined, but they are definitely not in an alliance with russia. So as we heard from alex, say this was not the 1st vo stock exercise, but it was certainly the most international to date. According to moscow, 50000 soldiers are to take part in the maneuver that significantly fewer than 3 years ago. But this time, troops from other former soviet states, mongolia, and even algeria, syria and nicaragua, are joining russia, china, and india. All countries are considered supporters of russian policy. China has actually spoken of a friendship without borders and is committing ground air and naval forces to the exercise was submitted. The quality of co operation between the russian and chinese navies has reached a new level. This increases global and regional stability and security where youre not as a business is above western Intelligence Services are not impressed by the maneuver. They see it as a staged demonstrative closing of ranks and nothing more calling it strategically useless. But the question remains is Vladimir Putin working on a new alliance against the west . Let me put that question straight to you, alex say, coupled with the question about how reliable these new allies truly are china, india, and others . Well, we have to differentiate. There is certainly a propagandistic attempt on the russian side to portray the events and the global scale as a demise of the western liberal world order. And then there is a lot of cherry picking on events and maneuvers, but also treaties and corporation arrangements which are supposed to be proof of that new alliances. I wouldnt claim to see any new Alliance Alliance iraq corporation agreements, obviously. And obviously the other countries, including china, looking at the russian war and ukraine and are more or less fence sitters because time works for them. They get discounted Energy Resources from russia. They also india heavily reliant on the russian arms industry. So obviously we still want to maintain this cooperation, and at the same time, theyre not necessarily pushed by time because russia will become more and more reliant on them, not the other way around. So i would say what we see is a rearrangement of relationships in the your asian continent. In russia is changing its role and tries to put trade in the language of a new world order. This is what i can see. And lets talk a little bit about that new world order and rushes hopes that they wore his ushered in the decline of the west. The new Foreign Policy doctrine that Vladimir Putin has now signed up 2 lines, a russian world that looks a lot like the imperialist ideology, that hard line russian nationalists used to justify intervention it, among other places in former soviet republics. Sarah, would you say that the ukraine war has, in fact ushered in a new world disorder where might makes right . No, i dont think that the war in ukraine really caused new developments that just accelerated existing developments. So if we, for example, look at this new doctrine and the quite great importance of the russian war concept, thats something that is not new that has been included in previous doctrines. But what we see is that this russian notion of being its own culture and being the opposite of the western one. Also influencing globally with this kind of fresh culture that is growing. But thats just, you know, it development that have that we have seen like 101015 years maybe. So its just accelerating what tendencies have there been before and if i can add it on. So if you look into the doctrine, it uses the language of humanitarian politics. This is very interesting whose actual title is a few monitoring doctrine and what it tries to do. I think it tries to hijack arguments of human human interior and responsibility, which we know from the west where there is an idea that you intervene in a 3rd country if something bad is happening. And what the russian propaganda tries to protect, right . To protect. Absolutely the same as that there is a right and a responsibility to protect the Russian Federation in charge of protecting, also culture. Right. So its more of a propagandistic effort. I would still see it like that. Michelle rushes were as aggression breaks, a long standing a taboo that is enshrined, of course, in the charter of the United Nations. Are countries friendly to russia, china, but perhaps also turkey. You mentioned turkey. It has been making some rather bellicose sounding threats. Recently these of the grease are these countries happy to see that taboo dethroned . Well, i think yes and no. Of course country like turkey sees that your political positions are shifting at the black sea for example to their disadvantage. But on the other hand, they depend to some extent on russian gas. And they can of course, benefit a lot from their position now as the major outlet for russia to asia, africa, and europe, and also from parallel imports and all kinds of things engineer. Now 2 ports and you stumble. So i think rather they, they really take advantage that they will not be in some kind of they will also go on maneuvering. The threats against greece, which you have mentioned are part of a turkeys pre election campaign. At the moment. Ado on the president makes friends at this point in time with everybody who can give him money from greece. He can get only one thing, which is the conflict which might then stir up nationalist feelings at home and help him over the threshold in 2023 when they will have elections. So a lot of calculation on the part of all these different players. Alex, if we can stay with the idea of an arms race that we mentioned in the title of this program, turkey has been selling Precision Drones to ukraine for use in the war, but says it will not supply russia. Russia, on the other hand, is apparently now getting military drones from iran is the Russian Military under the current circumstances, with the kind of opportunism that michelle just outlined is the Russian Military more resilient than many in the west are hoping . Well, its a question of what is the aim of the Russian Military . I think its absolutely clear that after the end of the Korean Campaign and the end of the war, which i cannot for knows when it will happen, the Russian Military will be in a shape which is much worse than ever before. In the last 2030 years just because of the loss of the technological damage. Also problems with morale, recruitment, systems and so on. So judging by that indicators, its a catastrophic scenario for the Russian Military in terms of resilience. If youre asking, how long could rush a wage war, it could do it for a long time, through, by incurring more and more costs on its own military economy, the civilian population. At the same time, i dont have a feeling talking to other experts special, specializing on military issues that its unclear whats the escalation potential there because there is a lot of talk of, you know, the creation of 3rd army corps which is supposed to be used in the Ukrainian Campaign at the same time, looking at the social analysis, we can see that the russian government has immense problems in mobilizing additional people. So armament technique, weapons tanks, the stockpiles are huge people and their preparedness to go and fight and die. Big question mark already. Now the recruitment even in prison is, is complicated. The recruitment in remote areas has been a big, big, big issue. And i dont see a lot of potential for the Russian Military to escalate massively in the current set up of the conflict. Just one remark on an escalation potential is, i think the 2 possible escalations there as this is a they, they have really grinded in southern and eastern ukraine. The escalation, which is possible as a massive aerial campaign on ukrainian cities are left post style destruction of ukrainian cities, but also at a loss because the ukrainians will be able to shoot down many craft russian aircraft. And the other would be in some way nuclear, but i think this is, this is an option which is of course, detrimental to all sites and even with the Nuclear Power station and the struggle to run the Nuclear Power stations have put easier. It is a city located in the east of ukraine. So if anything happens, russia and russians would be the 1st to suffer from that. I want to move away from that topic, which we in fact have talked about on many of our recent programs here and to the point. But lets come back to this new world disorder which is sometimes compared with new cold war. As sarah, its interesting if we look at the quite long list of countries that abstained in the General Assembly United Nations General Assembly vote to condemn the russian invasion quite a long list of countries that abstained. Now we had a non aligned block in the cold, more of course, but it had a lot less economic clout than this list of countries. What are the implications for the west of this fact . I think, i think in general, the image of a new cold war is not really hitting the point here because we have a lot of countries that try to balance the western russia and also china. So the big difference is 1st that we do not have like 2 super blogs like west and soviet union, but more actors on the field. And the other thing is that all the countries also across this blocks and much more integrated, also economy in economic way. So that makes it hard for a lot of countries to, you know, like to, to take aside. So, for example, if you are, you know, in southeast and asian country or an african country, you half economic relations with the west, but also with russia. So if the west impose sanctions, youre kind of in a dat lock because you basically have to decide which market is more important for you because it becomes much more complicated to maintain economical ations with both box. And thats also, i think, the most important reason why a lot of countries abstain from these votes because they really have to try to balance for they own economic good, but also for their political outlook in the future. And in fact, as youve mentioned, many of the countries that either abstained or in fact, joined to russia in the latest military exercise, have been getting cheap energy or weapons from russia. Russia is using its abundant supply of Energy Resources as a weapon to destabilize the west. Finding excuses to throttle gas flows, banking hundreds of millions, thanks to soaring prices that are taking a painful toll on european consumers. 70000 people protested against the government in prague. Several right wing politicians have demanded leaders, radically rethink their stance on the war in ukraine. You stop this war that the government claims is our war. It is not our war italian right wing nationalist mateo sal vini, a candidate for Prime Minister and a friend of putin. As also called for an end to the war and western sanctions, but cavies, under the sanctions, are hurting germany in italy. Above all, this wont force russia to its knees. We have to change court such as the mood among many in germany has also shifted in leipzig and berlin. Several 1000 people followed the call of the left party and protested, skyrocketing costs of living caused by the war as his alumnis, the, our economic war against russia. Is crazy. Its not stopping the war in ukraine, and it doesnt hit president putin or the oligarchy. But rather millions of people in germany is the western front against booty. Slowly starting to crumble. And we put that question straight at to alex say a is putting in the end going to have the last laugh. Its a chicken game, right. So of course were looking at russian saying look, there can only sanctions gonna hit the winter. The Popular Support will transform itself the military, the shape of the military. We spoke about it and the russian side looks at the you mostly and says, well, youre not going to make it because you know, the yellow vests are still somewhere in the closet. And people are looking as when the french protest i, when i had them who president micron tried to raise energy prior. Exactly. So the narrative is there and then its a question of, of an actual competition. Its going to be serious at the same time. I would like to be really disciplined about qualifying the protest so far in germany because its a fringe element up till now, the governmental responses there. Lets see how it works. And every bicycle activist, demonstration, and berlin as of now collect and gather more people than what has happened before, at the moment, against, well, in the demonstrations youve showed in the clips. So i would be, i would be inclined to say, lets see. Its going to be complicated, sarah, to what degree is russian dis, information at work here in part behind the protests. Russia has, of course, been pumping a lot of this information out both toward russian populations in the baltics and, and eastern europe. But also to the west itself. Yes. So we definitely see a recent russian dis, information at work, for example, the recent clip of about the German Foreign minister, where shes stated that she wants to maintain support for ukraine. No matter what her lotus that was used by our, by a pro Russian Media outlet to really, you know, like target german discontent. But however, i think we shouldnt overestimate the impact of fresh and different disinformation because it only works if there are hitting some discontent or movements or opinions that are already present in the german population. So what we have to work on is resilience. Also, you know, societal solidarity and if we make that happen and if we do that, well, i think were able to fight off the rush and just just information that kind of solidarity was of course, the goal of the german government. When last weekend, it announced its biggest relief package so far focusing, especially on vulnerable citizens like pensioners, students, people who receive social wealth welfare support. Misha, will that package be enough to stave off social instability . There are a number of warnings, making the rounds about a hot fall in germany, meaning street protests. Yeah, well i actually agree with those hara and exceed that. I do not think that these protests will turn into something really massive and big as the friends radical parties to the left and the right. Wish for. I do not see an eve, i see of why my constellation here as t linker. And if the are working together as the nazis and the communists in the 1920s, nice reminder of the threats we are, were having, but really at the fringes, they havent reached the center of society. And so far as though what i see in germany, people are rather come and people also know what is a steak because of what basically protein does by the, the destruction, the deliberate destruction of the European Russian gas relationship for good. It will never, ever be again, like that and deliveries it just been halted once again through the north stream to gas pipeline digital lately. And thats once and fall, and this will probably, in the end, hit russia much more because russian gas riches are in the west of siberia. They are designed to be export to, to europe. They will be sitting there, he will not be able to export it. While we are re orientated to other places, it will be expensive, but we will have gas in the future, as we said, put into playing for time. How long will term and support for ukraine hold if it becomes really painful this winter when gas prices to going up to pence . Very much on the government if they run after every, every person who says something, i think the government so far as state course. So i could imagine that throughout the winter they will be able to stay course and not change their attitude on your credit. And alex say same question as to timing. When will western sanctions really begin to bite in with a half with . Yeah, there are some one set it in a very nice way. Its not a bite of a cobra, but its a boy with a string related to russian economy. So it takes time, but its already there and its not reversible. This is why its a game for time, and we need to be cautious in discipline for the winter, but im quite optimistic. Lets have trust into our society. I think keep carmen, carry on is not just a british motto. When we come back to our title, as we move toward the end of our show, we asked whether russias war games with china and india represent the started a global arms race. Looking at the Current Situation in the world. Would you say that the age of disarmament has come to an end . I think it will become much more complicated to organize disarmament. So what weve seen over the last, maybe 10 to 15 years, is again arise of military expenditure. But still, its way below the levels that weve seen during the cold war. However, i think nuclear also conventional disarmament in europe. For example, during a time of war is nearly impossible because thats basically a situation where none of the parties is interested in does our room. And because all the, like, all the actors perceive it as improving their very own security. So i think really it does remain would only be possible after with some kind solve the ukranian, the cranny war plus and thats my nose is also at the point we have a different russian government beguile very briefly. What needs to happen for the west to win support for a revised revitalized schools based order that includes disarmament. I think what we need is trust in ourself and that we will make make it through the winter. And that actually we wont get nervous that we work and live at 19 degrees room temperature, and i think that there were worse times in the past than them. So keep carmen, carry on and show resolution. Thank you very much for all of you for being with us. 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