Transcripts For DW To The Point 20220819

Plant adds up a visa is meanwhile raising alarm. On to the point were asking, as the ukraine war grinds on, can either side to break the stalemate. Hello and welcome to to the point. Its a great pleasure to welcome our guest beginning with jessica berlin, who is a political analyst with the german marshal fund. Gustav progresso is senior policy fellow and military expert at the Berlin Office of the European Council on foreign relations. And joining us online is my ukrainian colleague roman, contra ranko, who is working for d ws, russian desk in bon. And let me start by asking you assess, as our defense expert, to tell us what you think is happening right now. If you look at the front lines, it appears that both sides essentially are stalled, but thats not the end of the story is it was not, not, not the end for this, most of it. So the russian offensive and offensive actions have slowed down the havent stopped now, which is, which is part of the problem, but they have considerably slowed down to have narrowed down on the russians have difficulty sustaining their fires down tillery war. But nevertheless, theyre still on the offensive on ukrainian side. Oh, ye koreans try to spurs. Are Russian Forces as much as they can try to force them to split or to maneuver in order to, to weaken their strong points or however, ukraine, on the other hand, is not yet Strong Enough to mount our larger counter fences operatives counter offensive as compared to tactical ones are ukraine can capitalize and russian mistakes if they happen, but they can not yet force the russian army to withdraw from an operative direction on their own. For this, they would need more supply of heavy weapons, particularly tanks and infantry fighting vehicles from the west, which unfortunately is not yet coming. And we want to come back to that a little bit later. Let me go now to my colleague roman and roman one pentagon official said in recent days that they are estimating russian casualties so far over the last 6 months at 7280000 ukraine has also been sustaining heavy losses. So what does that mean for both sides in terms of their ability to keep on waging this war . Well, both sides as you have rightly put em, have heavy casualties. But russia has much greater resources in human power in tanks and planes. Anything you take it, some military hardware and all those figures that youve just mentioned that they of course include those, the drugs are recruited in the occupied territories in the east and in the south crane, especially in the east, in the don bus region. So theyre actually ukrainians who are also fighting on the russian side. Most of them probably do it because because they want to but some are forced to we also have reports of that. And it is not clear for how long the war can continue as before. We havent now reached a point where we are watching this war for 6 months already with which is a very huge war. You have to remember the frontline is more than 1000 kilometers long, it is very, very long. So, and we have to differentiate the situation because in the east indian boss roches offensive is very slow, but hes continuing as goes to rightly said in the south. There is kind of a stalemate and in the north of the situation is very rapidly developing again, i think around the city of harkey, which is the 2nd largest city of ukraine. We have every day and heavy, heavy rocket, you know, in new york, its striking that city and i think that could be a new attempt by russia to intensify the fighting there, which will be very bad for you. Crane. Thank you very much and were going to take a closer look at some of the reasons that you just mentioned in a moment. But let me 1st ask jessica, when you look at where this conflict stands now, nearly 6 months after it began, what worries you the most . Thats a huge question on next to the thousands of dead and wounded and millions of ukrainians displaced. My greatest concern right now is in fact the political stagnation were seeing in western europe and in the United States. It seems that the nato partners have, have decided to support ukraine with heavy weapons, but only to the point to, to keep them afloat and not to actually pull them fully out of the water. And we need to see more engagement of our political leaders across nato. With our voters to explain to the people why it matters to invest now in ukraine success. And we need also for our political leaders to recognize that we cannot afford to stagnate. Thats technician on the battlefield as a result of political stagnation. And if they want to see progress on the battlefield, that means that the political establishments will need to proactively build support for ukraine and deliver more heavy weapons. Now, let us take a closer look now at whats happening behind that long front line that roman mentioned a moment ago. Early in the war, Russian Troops occupied the hare san region in the southern part of ukraine. Now, the Ukrainian Army is said to be prepared, hearing a major counter offensive with successes still modest hopes of many are riding high on fire power provided by the United States with precision strike miss styles fired in quick succession. The u. S. Supplied high mas missile launches, give the Ukrainian Army an advantage at 80 kilometers they reach farther than the average russian artillery, and can thus hit me deposed at a distance. Depots have to be moved farther away from the front. Slowing down supplies for Russian Troops can ukraines counter offensive to retake the castle region and the south of the country succeed. Proposal committees attack slow down shelling from the russian side for a period of time although, but the russians are adapting learning the lessons that are high miles and long range weapons are teaching them. Unfortunately, the course of the war is not yet turning in our favor. In a sustainable way, its a process. Everything is constantly changing. Yeah. So that continues to be a shortage of western weapons, according to soldiers in the trenches, the southern front, more a patient game than counter offensive. And let me put that question straight away to roman and roman. In fact, ukraine has damaged or destroyed most of the bridges that link house on to the other russian held territories. Ukrainian generals have told western media that they think our son could be liberated by the end of this year. Would you say thats right or overly optimistic . I think its too optimistic at this point because we dont know what will happen in the coming months. If the west will supply more, more weapons, more heavier weapons, for the ukranian army. And this is crucial if this and the counter offensive will succeed and one will succeed. So you can has a chance to liberate hassan, im sure, but i think it will be a longer run, not just by the end of this year. I think its or something we could talk about early next year, because it is very difficult to liberate such a big city and then to hold it. And you create it. Russians could take it at the beginning of this war and they didnt have much resistance. This is, this is a big question, how this could happened and this is something that ukrainians are still asking us to ask him themselves. How could russia occupy such a huge territory just in, in a few days. This didnt happen in the east where ukrainian grant has very strong positions. It didnt happens also in the north a. So russia failed around the capital key of but in the south, in this is like her song and later in marty, you pull as well. Russia could advance very fast, and i think ukrainian will not be able to take them back as quickly as russia occupied them. Most of this us supplied, he missed a Missile System that was mentioned in our report. Could it be a game changer not only for have fun for that region, but also for the war overall. There is no single Weapon System that is a game changer. A combined arms maneuver force needs a broad set of capabilities to succeed. Not just one set of weapons. The 2nd thing is the, the home was, is used in a very selective narrow role that is providing deep strike. The high mars is the replacement, so to say, for an air force to strike targets in the enemys rear. Take them out but a dock. Hi must for example, is not used in a traditional rocket artillery will oh role. For example to stall the russian advances because there are too few launches too few miss hans. Those misses that there are precision guided g p. S, a guided munitions, they strike point targets. Theyre not like for example, she plus domination that just literacy, alt and oh, bloss away or an entire area that the enemys using for its attack. Ah, this is why its only very narrow role to use them for our for defending the dorm was actually the cheap cluster stuff that be kind of get this used to produce. And, and this used to use would be much more useful for the ukrainians arm because you can use it directly in the front against the troops on the, the cache on thing as well. Its flattering open turn. You need tanks to provide direct fire support and you need, oh, infantry fighting vehicles or arm of a personal carriers, whatever kind of armor, transportation to bring infantry from village a to will it be otherwise that would just be slaughtered like in the 1st world war 5 would have a machine gun running across the field. So if i can just jump in, does ukraine currently have both the, the tanks and the material as well as the military capacity. The forces that it would need to launch a major counter offensive in hesper, the half enough soldiers, but they dont have enough heavy weapons. The ukraine song has drone a lot or general mobilization. A lot of volunteers are there are, in terms of men and women to fight already much stronger than russians. The russians have more tillery more ammunition, more tanks, more infantry fighting vehicles. This is why there can substitute lacking soldiers with superior firepower, as long as this balance doesnt change, the ukraine problems getting this so priori teen man, a into to turn it in to results on the battlefield and up. Unfortunately, to continue. Jessica, let me come back to the point you made earlier about concerns regarding the possibility that western support will flag. In fact, many of ukraines western allies, including most especially germany, are going to be facing a tough winter with soaring heat bills due to the effects of the conflict on energy markets. Do you think that president to lensky ukrainian leaders under these circumstances can afford to play the long game . Or do they need to deliver quicker results in order to, to sustain western support . And its a chicken and egg problem, because in order to deliver quick results, they need more heavy weapons. And, and thats the message coming from keith, to berlin to washington. Unfortunately, it has yet to achieve the does artillery at the level they can. Were still waiting for germany to deliver Armored Vehicles at the level they can and indeed have already committed i and at the end of the day, we need to make clear to the public before this winter sets in that its in everyones interest for ukraine to win this war quickly beyond the obvious moral, imperative, and humanitarian imperative to end the war to end the bloodshed. Also, it will be cheaper for everyone, both in terms of military assistance as well as in terms of reconstruction costs. If the war and the sooner. So western governments need to recognize that investing now stepping up now to send heavy weapons. This will lower the bill and lower the political as well as financial cost for every one down the road. The roman putin is planning a fake referendum in the house on region 2 legitimate russian control. There is that also a reason that president s lensky actually needs to act quickly there to try to disrupt that. Well yes, of course ukraine is trying to disrupt that and putting it and his and his or the army or his government are planning several so called a referendum or not just in her song, but also in the regions of bridge in the library region, which is very interesting, i think because russia does not control the whole region. Appreciate doesnt control the capital, the city of the bridge itself, which is a very important Industrial City in ukraine, not just because of the Nuclear Power plant nearby. But in general, it is very important for ukraine, but it is still under king and control and are on we havent seen a substantial russian advances around that city. And they could easily conduct such a referendum, probably in the city of or in the region of landscape which they control nearly completely or internet square. Theyve been for 8 years, but they dont do that or they are maybe slower. Theyre. I think they are trying to move faster in the east because they want to somehow legitimate, or legitimize the control of that Nuclear Power plant in. And i go down into a preacher region because its, its very important. Its very big. And were going to go a little bit later. It is apple. Yes. Yeah. But let us move on now to the russian occupied crimea and peninsula annexed by russia. In 2014 president lensky demands that it should be restored to ukraine. A goal that appeared almost illusory until mysterious explosions at russian bases in crimea. The most recent hit was an ammunition depot. According to moscow, this was an act of sabotage. Here speaks of a master stroke by Ukrainian Armed forces. Earlier there had been heavy detonations at the saki air base. Russian accounts implied an accident, however, satellite images show several destroyed russian fighter jets. So again, let me go straight to our military expert, go staff. What is happening here, and what do you think the impact of these strikes deep in crimea is likely to be . Well is of course are hard to, to establish a clear picture what has happened and tell it with certainty. But the attack on saki airbase, which was quite a remarkable thing we saw on the satellite pictures, you saw this big craters, so that means an underground explosion. You also saw the explosion of saki up the very dark out a lot of dirt in her, in the flames that concurs with the picture of an underground explosions. Now saboteurs would need to gain access to each and every of the one of the bunkers and at least 3 of them are detonated to detonate charges inside at 2 oclock in the afternoon, which is very unlikely. And no shots fired on the base. So the guest there is that its an ukrainian develop ballistic miss. I lot of course has the speeds and the penetration capabilities to around its war hurt into the bunker and then detonate there, which would lead to exact these kind of explosions, the new one. So d d ammunition table in the vicinity of john coy that detonated this one might have been the work of special forces saboteurs because the ammunition there was thought basically a light littering around or in on the train station. And of course, if the ammunition is thought over drowned, you just have to hit it with something that unites it. And boom, very go. So whats the significance of that in a word . In a word is that of course the ukrainians have a much better deep strike capability than the russians have fought their hat. And you see that also by russia increasing their security, both air defense, but also guards and sort of physical security around facilities in their rear. And that, of course, forces are for the dispersion of assets and forces all these infantry you need to guard breaches. Radio stations for such are you concerned them into baltimore, or all the hold spots for you would need them just because the rule of american intelligence has come under increasing scrutiny with russia, accusing white the white house of supplying targeting information to a cubes for its long range strikes. Do you think thats the case and is that risky . And could we even be seeing some undisclosed secret us weapons at work here . I wouldnt worry too much about that. The American Secret Services and military have been supporting ukraine from the beginning of the war. American intelligence warned ukraine about the pending invasion, even before it all began. So for, for the kremlin and to react and be upset that american intelligence is supporting ukrainian diligence. Its, its a nonstarter, we already know this. Its not a secret. I think i, its actually an encouraging sign to show that the Ukrainian Military is able to act on the intelligence that they themselves as well as that their allies gather their showing operational capacity and success. And on this is really whats worrying the russians, not the fact that theyre that the ukrainians are perhaps getting satellite imagery from the americans. Roman. How worried should the russians be about ukrainian galleria fighters, essentially called partisans . We heard good stuff talking about the role of saboteur as possibly in these explosions in crimea, whos organizing the partisans. And whats the goal here . Because clearly the numbers are not sufficient to actually oust the occupiers. Well, we do not have enough information, which is of course very secretive and im very special information, very Sensitive Information for the ukrainian government. That is why key of is major is silent to that. Would have seen so far were some are minor attacks in, in russian occupied cities which were newly occupied since the start of the big, big war in february, in smaller towns. Weve seen that where we now could assume that they, there might be partisans involved in the crimea, and we do not still still have confirmation to that. It is possible, but i wouldnt on overestimated if, if at all, in, in the crimea. I would say its on a small scale because of that. And in, so i have been under russian control for 8 years and ross and of course use the time to search for Ukrainian Partisans and to take them out either arrest them or kill them. So i would expect that we could see more of a partisan movement in the occupied regions in the east and in the south of ukraine. Finally, let us take a trip to one more danger zone that has been raising concern. The situation around this apparition, Nuclear Power plant in southern ukraine could create risk far beyond the region occupied by russian soldiers since march. It is once again being shelled and this is a dangerous pond in this drawn out conflict. A projectile hit close to that region. 6 reactors. Moscow claims that ukrainian are michelin. Europes Largest Nuclear facility with drones. Heavy artillery and rocket launchers, keys claims Russian Troops or targeting the security infrastructure of the power plant they occupy, missed using it for attacks and tara on the surrounding area. Hey, would you register any radiation leakage in south regia could affect countries of the european union, re, would hurry all georgia, dream and countries further afield. Everything depends on the direction and strength of the windy. According to experts, the wind and the region blows mainly to the south and east. Thus, in a worst case scenario, it would also affect russia. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said they were playing with fire, warned of the danger of Nuclear Catastrophe. And as demanding inspectors are given access. How dangerous is the situation and zapper asia and let me put that question straight away to a roman. How dangerous is it . This is dangerous, but i wouldnt say it is extremely dangerous because i think russians are not insane. They know if anything serious happens, then they will be also suffering because crimea, russian occupies company is not far away and russia is not far away. So i think they are pursuing hit 2 goals. One is to put pressure on the west because the west is very much afraid of a Nuclear Catastrophe in ukraine. And 2nd is to cut ukraine off from the land, which is very important for the ukrainian edge, an energy supply. And for ukraine earning money. Because the claim is selling its energy to the west. If that Nuclear Plant is under russian control, or if the russians run it down, which is possible, then ukraine will lose a lot of money and it will have to reorganize its own power grid. Will have both sides are disputing whos actually behind the recent shelling oven chaper each year . Russia has hundreds of forces around this Nuclear Power plant. Why would they endanger their own men . Will russia uses the ppo plan, 1st and foremost as an ammunition taper . Because the narrative, the ukrainians, dont strike it at full, full speed because of the danger of leakage, the cetera. Ok, thats, thats why it is a nomination tape or however that said, are actually the, the kind of fighting and shelling is not the greatest concern. I heard from that the reactors are fairly well protected by thick concrete. You would really need special ammunition to penetrate that. I a kind of, or of course artillery shell will not cause them to detonate, or 2 calls a new channel. What could be the case is that and what is the real danger . Is that Russian Occupying forces inhibit the normal technicians in the reactor to make their duties and, and sort of have their regularly safety procedures. Russian soldiers might be drunk, russian commanders might use the discipline of the troops and whatever theyre going to do that, that really its mike interest and the to link. Youre gonna cut you off there to ask our title question one more time. Jessica can either side break the stalemate. You cream can, if they get more heavy weapons. Now. Thank you very much. Thanks to all of you for being with us today. Thank you also to bond to roman for joining us on line. And to all of you out there, thanks for being with who is a real cow boys . Dont cry like wayne and rhonda have every reason to as forest fires and disastrous floods threatened their very existence along with other canadians. There. 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