Transcripts For DW The Day 20220722

Ah, good schools, its glenda guess its flying again, but i dont think germany should let it so be blackmailed by russia the slow months if on a political level its maybe not good news. I go to Program School in pretended reason of technical problems actually has a political background integral. We have to secure energy. We needed from somewhere for sent of rushes, increasingly and uncertainty factor in the energy system. Hes been gone. Im totally relaxed about the gas. Ive been hating with wood, which i gather from a forest or curtain can get lost. My ah, also coming up Bank Customers vent their anger in china being frozen out of their accounts. What does this say about the state of chinas economy and the ideal of common prosperity . Hey, its not clear just how much money the victims have lost in this scandal, but some reports of suggested it could be in the 10s of billions of you on to our viewers around the world. Good to have you with us. Europe is breathing a sigh of relief after russian gas started flowing once again through the north stream one pipeline. It had been down for Maintenance Work for 10 days, but fears were the kremlin would use the scheduled disruption to cut off deliveries entirely. Well, for now, the pipes are filling all the way below capacity. And thats now cause for celebration in germany, a country heavily reliant on an unpredictable flood reputed germany, remains at the mercy of russia and is now scrambling to diversify into energy sources. The flow of gas has restarted through the biggest pipeline carrying russian gas to germany. North stream one had been out of action for routine maintenance. Many in berlin were concerned, russia would turn it back on. Germany relies on russia for around a 3rd or its got imports. For now, the nightmare scenario as it was described seems to have been avoided, but concerns remain. Experts say germany should be doing more to reduce its dependence. The laguna says the situation is urgent. Aha who should have been making savings from day one . On february, we lost valuable months. Its important to re adjust this now for citizens are being urged to save energy. Experts also say germany should look for alternative sources, philip Storage Facilities and expand renewables. Berlin has been scrambling to set some of these measures in motion. It has reduced its dependence on russian gas. The government has also given the go ahead for ellen gee terminals to be built. And by mid july, germany had raised its gas storage levels to 65 percent. Mo, however, needs to be saved. And they have also been setbacks, especially for germanys climate goals. The government has decided to leave. Its called plants running longer than planned. Nuclear power might also be back on the table and more coordination efforts, especially among you partners could be needed. This could for instance, me that you know, there is a clear decision taken that okay, were going to prioritize the supply o a gas war heating houses in slovakia. Well, that means we need to turn down or ration the supplier or say the da says and it will be saw. Thats the kind of thing that can only be coordinated. Were from the you. Solidarity agreements would avoid lengthy negotiations in cases of emergency sticking together will be important in europe in order to stay warm in winter. Rush us war on ukraine has for us germany to look for alternative gas suppliers. When to day it was all eyes on the town of lou mean, where the north stream one pipeline arrives in germany. Italy has been going over a scrubber, was there, there is a need relief, but every one knows that this is not a long term solution. That russia might even reduce the amount of gas that its now sending. We have the estimates that we it will be around 3040 percent. So quite similar to the figure that we have before this mania m maintenance that happens every year. So germany of the German Government is quite confident even though this is good news. Now they have to find a tentative partnerships for energy to leave and russian guys and russian oil in the near future. Thats what theyre planning lots to talk about. And for that i can now welcome rudy buckman. Hes a professor of economics at the university of notre dame and the us. Mr. About one flow is restored, but the ball is still very much input in court, isnt it . How would you rate Europes Energy Security at this point . Well, i think put it is edit the sweet spot right now. He had, he not continued to deliver gaz. Then at least europe would have had some clarity. And, you know, europe would have just have to adapt and cope with it and, you know, probably with good Political Leadership the population would have adjusted over time. But now, yes, this constant a threat to go lower. Thats one thing. So its good for him to keep threatening. And what does he gain from this . Well he probably, i would surmise hed probably bice continued german reconsider. And so reluctant to go all and weapons delivery though, thats number one for potent and of course, number 2, the fewer garcia delivers, the higher the gas price is and he makes much more money. Thats the, you know, the economics of monopoly, or quade monopoly pricing. Now being at the mercy of a very undesirable physician to be and is there any way at this point to reverse this dynamic or, you know, at least create a level Playing Field . Well, the German Government or the european governments have done already quite a lot. So its also name a few positives here. I mean, while gast dependents was, well, well, about 40 percent on when we started, when this war started, its now roughly 30 percent. And some of a few low hanging fruit 70 would be used yet. For example, the stop of using gas to produce electricity, which is something that absolutely i should have done long time ago. And the absolute need to be doing yesterday. So thats a relatively low hanging fruit. And the good news is in that 30 percent, or to be precise. 29 percent, a gas a gap for at least a germany. What hasnt been calculated affected in is the coming on line or the likely coming on line of Floating Energy terminals, probably by the end of the year certainly is sometime in the mid of the winter. So, you know, theres a, so theres another 10 percent lying basically on the street here. And the rest has to be, you know, has to be done through the month. We have to have a massive demand reduction. But 20 percent government sell about there because, you know, gas, especially in germany is used so widely, especially in peoples homes by the industry. How can we reduce demand in the measuring that is needed right now . All hands on deck. I mean, you have to start with letting the market prices work, the gas prices, the consumers and industry need to feel the gas prices. The market mechanism has the beauty that, you know, only the most valuable of undertakings are going to continue. For example, should you know, a gas product, Glass Production facility be in jeopardy then, you know, people will be willing and able to pay a high price for that gas. And if things are not so no action to important and maybe things you can buy also in the world market like fertilizer, then that is the gas that will be saved 1st. And then the same time a you absolutely must do is subsidize energy use. Thats what we stole, part of the doing, rather than subsidizing energy use us. Thats it. This is a subtle difference. But economically, it makes all the difference. You want to help people to be able to afford this higher got or higher gas builds. But at the same time, when they have to pay at the margin, a high price, theres always an incentive to keep saving. Just briefly, i want to ask you about this because i know that you at your university have looked into it. Russia were to suspend deliveries as it has threatened. What would be the economic consequences for a country, so dependent on gas coming out of russia like germany. So we have studied this, frankly only or so you march. So what if there was a, a cold turkey embargo march . Our numbers were 3 percent. Other studies were a little higher for 5 percent in germany. I, frankly, im more at that late level for, for 5 percent in march. What, what has happened now is a 2 opposing forces, and so i, i just havent repeat the study. So i cant give you a precise number or a number that, that, that im willing to back up scientifically. So for one thing on the, on the one and we have, we have, as i said, reduced the gas dependency quite a lot. So should put, didnt cut the gas. Now the initial shock would be much smaller than it would have been in march or april. But on the other hand, we also wasted a lot of time adjusting on the demand side and adjustment takes time and that whatever, just what we have to do now will be more costly than have had had it been started in it much. All right, really about one of the university of notre dame. Thank you so much for all those insights. Thanks for having me. Ah. Confidence in the civility of chinese banks has been badly shaken after 4 war lenders and chinas northern how none province froze hundreds of thousands of depositors out of their own accounts. But the treatment of some of the victims of the fall out has shocked people following the developments. And as patrick fock reports from beijing isnt the only bank related crisis causing social aneice . Ah, the weeks theyd been pockets of demonstrations then one sunday, early this month, hundreds gathered in june, jo, the capital of hun and province demanding compensation for months. Theyve been frozen at their Bank Accounts with 4 royal lenders. Before long, thousands of security personnel appeared to suppress the protested panels. Adelaide rush over by the hundreds. Grab somebody and beat them and kick them regardless whether it was men, women, the elderly or children, even people with disabilities. Lehman was one of the depositors there that day. Thats not his real name, but laming wants to keep his identity concealed, fearing possible. Retribution, a former taxi driver, he told us he deposited 1000001. 00 or around 850000 us dollars into one of the banks that had blocked their customers accounts. They were his families, a savings, and they had entrusted him to invest the money. She had a long island to pain, it is brought to us may be life long and could even affect our childs future. The hun and bank scandal drew widespread attention even before the crackdown on protested last month. Many people and john were outraged after a thought his turn some the deposit cove at 19 health could read that stopped them from travelling to demonstrate. Its not clear just how much money the victims have lost in this scandal, but some reports of suggested it could be in the 10s of billions of you on local police. Have blamed it on a criminal gang saying its took over these banks and made illegal transfers through fake loans. Officials now say theyll start repaying some victims, but only those with up to 50001. 00 and savings. Lee and many others feared theyll never get the full amount back. When you had a more, i think theyre trying to recover the stolen funds if they could recover whats been stolen, we wouldnt have had this kind of situation into day. So im not optimistic. This isnt the only crisis in golfing chinese banks right now. Tens of thousands of home buyers across the country have been withholding mortgage payments on stalled construction projects. Many of them ran out of funds, a da struggling to complete her man is again at the center. The capital jung, joe is where most mortgage boycotts have been recorded. Amber se both cases point to week government oversights and local authorities. And in the case of the mortgage crisis, its 2 local housing departments, local Housing Administration to parties. Theyre responsible for checking the accounts and making sure that developers use this money in, in appropriate way. This has not happened. Many developers have faced the cash crunch since beijing began raining and easy credit to take its debt pile. So far, bank said they can manage the risks from the mortgage crisis, but if it gets worse, it could threaten their credit profiles and power more pressure on chinas already strained financial system. Oh, the president , she didnt ping the timing could not be worse. It comes just months ahead of the once every 5 years, communist Party Congress there, hell likely tout his success and maintaining stability as a reason to break president s and stand for a 3rd. So here gordon chang is an american columnist historian and lawyer has 2001 book theyre coming, collapse of china predicted the demise of the chinese economy under communist rule. His leaders is the great us china tech war and looks at the battle for global Tech Leadership and the 21st century. And i am pleased to welcome him now. Mr. Chang, welcome to the day. What is your read on whats been happening in china . These past weeks what we have seen recently is the combination of years of may actually even decades of bad policies. The beijing has really tried to pump the economy with unsustainable amounts of debt, especially after the 2008 global downturn. And now across the country, theres just too much, too much in the way of debt, maybe 350 percent of gross domestic product. Maybe even more. And so there were always going to be problems that would manifest themselves somewhere. And now were seeing them across the board in the chinese economy. And is this debt bon, that you write about . Is that in the only underlying factor here, you are recently wrote in an opinion please that china is approaching if death spiral and a point of no return. Why is that . Is that only the debt . Theres a number of factors at the same time. First of all, segan ping believes in the state dominated economy. Hes turned his back on the liberalization that resulted in the great growth in china. And he wants something that more approaches the 1950s, and certainly thats not good for the economy. But you do have the dead crisis, and youve got coven 19 locked downs. You have a lot of just discomfort and unease and chinese society. So you put that all together at the same time it, it means that the merry go round is the deed stopped. If fail, connie takes and made her head. What will be the implications for the world . I dont think it would be too bad for the world. You know, people say that china is an engine of global growth. Well, it really isnt. Because to be an engine, a global growth, youve got to buy the goods and services of other countries to create growth. And china through predatory and criminal practices is taking growth from other countries. So if the chinese economy were to disappear over night, i think that actually after the initial shock there probably would be better growth elsewhere at how it went. And bigger economic crisis impacts easing pain leadership style. Well, as you, as your piece pointed out, he wants that precedent. Breaking. 3rd term is general secretary of the 20th National Congress of the communist party. If tradition halls will be held in october or november, this is not coming at a very good time for c. Im so while he may get his 3rd term is most analysts think people are now talking about limits on his leadership and that could very well create all sorts of tension going forward. Because seizure being would try to purge those people who have been opposed to him, but who are in positions of power. And because his legitimate thing was always anti and to his promise of common prosperity, youre right, will we see him flakes his muscles elsewhere, to show strength and this one and claim to legitimacy for his 3rd term and doesnt hold any more. Yeah, i think that he has all the reasons in the world do you know, invade a neighbor or to create some sort of controversy that diverts the Chinese People from their problems at home to a foreign enemy. So india, japan, the philippines, taiwanda, united states, we are all, i think it much greater risk these days. And what can he down to turn things around economically because he does need a when yeah, i dont think that he really is. His ideology would not permit him to do those things which are necessary. China has to come to a reckoning because theres just too much debt in the system. Also, there are too many unsustainable investments and loans. And you know, in a free market economy, in 2008 around the world and my country, other countries took the big kits. I dont think that the communist party is willing to do that. So within the constraints of communist party ideology, the answer to your question is nothing. Theres nothing they can do whom there does seem to be a reckoning of sorts among, among the citizens, right. The social on people weve been seen in protests and banks, mortgage bank, hans. And will any of it make a difference . I think it eventually will make a difference. The mortgage boycotts are now in 86 cities, not just the central part of china. Were now starting to see suppliers to the big property. Companies also refused to pay their loans to banks and banks across the country have had problems. And even banks in shanghai, for instance, were limiting. Withdraws during the coven lock downs. So i think this is systemic. You know, china blames or criminal gang the for the problems at those for credit associations. But its really a much bigger problem and its a problem that is a nationwide and systemic corn chain. Great talking to you and thank you so much for your time. Thank you. Ah, the man italians, ones nick named silver mario has given up after the collapse of his National Unity government, Prime Minister mario drago is resigning. Hell stay on as a caretaker until snap elections at the end of september. Hopes were the widely respect a technocrat could bring some stability to italys tumultuous political arena. Now, 17 months after he took the job, analysts say his departure could not have come at a worse time for italy and for europe. Drawing his trip to the president ial palace to submit his 2nd resignation within a week, has launched yet another phase of turmoil in italian politics. He was originally appointed to the rule of Prime Minister to hope is to lee recover from the impact of covert get a grip on a faltering economy and implement economic reforms. Those issues have not gone away and if anything have become more pressing, his resignation has left many italians worried about the future. So i watch a delicate moment that i think it was a reckless move, not to bear in mind. Everything that is happening globally with the war and the ongoing pandemic thought by which they live. It really is of the right moment for a government crisis up, but on this should have been the moment to get back on our feet. So i think, okay, not the moment to stop not being cited. Lets hope everything goes well, but will august and the problem will be solved on the line where i wanna onqua cory. The with the political crisis began a week ago when one of the parties and drug his Coalition Government refused to back an economic package that prompted him to tender his resignation. For the 1st time, it is president asked him to stay on and to try and form a stable government draggy 2nd resignation. After 2 more Coalition Parties broke ranks brings the curtain down on that effort. On thursday evening, italys president sergal montero tele deserve parliament clearing the way for new elections to be held on september 25th. The mand up super mario has been asked to remain an office in a caretaker role until a new Prime Minister is chosen. And they all got i one year as a Research Associate and politics and International Relations at oxford university. I asked them what we can expect from dragging between now and the september election. He will try to lock in the roof, wanted started over last year and a half a leave you to receive or something regional 250000000000 years on European Union recovery package. Mother has been working on that and he will try to lock him. Hes reformed so that he will stay that will not be dismantled by mexico that he will not be able to pass the budget more that will because indeed for, for next year, but in parliament probably between november and so i, italy has never faced an Election Campaign in the summer, and that is for a reason like many southern european nations like basically comes to a standstill in the hot months. The cities empty out and people flew to the beach or so what does that Campaign Going to look like . Yeah, it is going to be peculiar, but i dont think only because of the summer time, and there is extremely time for Political Parties to submit their documentation that is necessary for running the election. So times are tied from an administrative point of view. Also, there will be a reduction in the number of Seats Available in apartment. So you could expect in fighting with the parking to be on the ticket to be made kelly than the election. And you could expect more slip, we will ready to within the 5 movement, theres been a split and you could expect more people leaving their parties trying to find somewhere somewhere else where they can fit the us President Joe Biden has tested positive for covert 19, according to the white house hes experiencing very mild symptoms which include fatigue and a cough. The u. S. President reportedly last tested negative on tuesday. The 79 year old is fully vaccinated and boosted twice. Hes being treated with packs levin, an anti virus drug design to reduce the severity of the disease. Im glad to isolate at the white house, but continue to carry out his president ial duties as part of a White House Press conference earlier tonight. Because the president is fully vaccinated, double boosted his risk of serious illness, is dramatically lower. Hes also getting treated with a very powerful anti viral. And that further reduces his risk of serious shots. And its a reminder of the reason that we all work so hard to make sure that every american has the same level of protection that the president us today is almost done. But the conversation continues online. You will find us on twitter either at the w news or you can follow me. Nicole underscore, for me and the entire team at the day. Thank you so much for spending parts of your day with to the point. Strong opinions, clear positions, international perspectives. Russias war on ukraine was initially seen as a regional conflict, but its uh, ending geo politics. Both sides seek new alliances for travel time. Is it anything goes for by and put in, find out on to the point to the point in d. W, a man with the memories of a woman ali from syria is born in a female body. Forced into marriage, great, far from home, ali can finally become the person hes always wanted to be. And i have, i will be spared badly. Oh, in the 3 for that, then well go with it. I was born in berlin. In 45 minutes on d, w. O. Oh, mm hm. Is establishing an order . She ging, pain, president of the global powered china, is part of a whole system which believes his time has come. He relies on an authoritarian system of total surveillance on economic expansion without scruples and again and again, she provokes and threatens with military aggression. The chinese president believes that his way is for superior than that of western democracy. Chinas president , she ging ping starts july 30th on d. W. Rushes. War on ukraine was initially seen as a regional conflict, but it is having increasingly global repercussions up ending geo politics. And sparking tensions far beyond europe, both sides are forging new alliances with countries. They only recently kept at