Transcripts For DW Quadriga - Trump Goes It Alone Europe At A Loss 20180607

Imports coming from the e. U. Mexico and canada some observers are predicting a six against one confrontation with donald trump the odd man out but divisions in europe make a united front ever more difficult to achieve has trumps America First transactional ism become the nationalist template for other leaders including with in the new. Trump goes it alone europe at a loss thats our topic on quadriga today and here are guests its a pleasure to welcome laura fund daniel shes a senior fellow at the berlin based think tank s. W. Peak her research focuses on u. S. Economic policy and trade and she says the e. U. Is currently doing a remarkable job at protecting its interests in very challenging times and im glad to welcome ralph lauren on the show he is spokesperson of the german section of republicans overseas and he says there has been a trade imbalance for years between the u. S. And the e. U. The complaints of the europeans about punitive terrorist are therefore not justified. And finally were glad to have Daryl Lindsey with us hes managing editor of Spiegel International he says europe is for the most part united against trump on tariffs for now but what if this turns into a full fledged trade war. And let me start out by asking you laura from daniels are we likely to see the g seven devolve into a g six plus one as frances finance minister recently said and if so what implications does that have for europe and for the world as a whole. Well first of all its good that all of those countries and their leaders to coming together and trying to have a dialogue its often forgotten that plenty of topics to talk about that are really important besides trade and the economic parts and i think this still a pretty good chance also for other countries even if the u. S. Is following a different path on trade in this leading a ma protectionist policy approach right now this to the chance that all of those other countries that are united in the g seven in the g twenty and also all of the Member States of the w t o will be able to carry on and just stick to the global liberal international auda do you really think theyre going to get to any other topics at this summit besides trade i surely hope they will because that really big crisis like the one in syria and Eastern Ukraine other topics that are really relevant that we should be talking about topics like equal rights for women and men and so on and if you have a look at the agenda for the g seven also Climate Change these are really the topics that we should be talking about rather than always getting into those fights. The u. S. Is giving as its official justification for imposing these punitive tariffs not unfair trading practices actually but National Security by proceeding under what is a fairly obscure national law rather than under standard w t o procedures isnt the u. S. Ultimately thumbing its nose at its allies and perhaps at that rule based International Order in general sure a bit i mean certainly trump need to react fast you so he needed a reason in order to do to act like this i believe actually the reason is its a bit different. We have and we dont have an equivalent in the tariffs and that has to be saw for many many years we we claim the. You know the us claimed this. Many years like the Administration Obama but also Clinton George bush jr for instance they claim this many many times and Nothing Happened and the w t o x quite slowly and pace years and years i just talking about bananas with what tamala took many years for a very minor thing so i believe we need some action now we have a open discussion as we sit here for instance and i think thats very healthy and we need and President Trump only has taken one half percent of overall trade ok so he could have like we could have talked about other goods like like cars automotive and like that he did so he started up with something very much and with a minor thing i believe and now we did the europeans have to be really unified and they have to act have to speak with one voice and i think these talks will proceed and i think we will get to a very positive and ok i want to come back to a couple of those points that you made in just a moment but first looking at the big picture it was shortly after the last g. Seven summit that took place in italy that donald trump announced that he was leaving the that the u. S. Would be leaving the paris climate agreement many europeans see that together with these terrorists together with the us retreat from the iran treaty that it had signed up to as the us essentially turning its back on the entire International Order that was established after the Second World War do you see a risk of that and if so what do you see is the implications i see taken together theres a theres a very real risk of that happening you know the question that a lot of people are asking now is it America First or is it america only all of these moves represent a move away from the multilateral system that the United States actually built in the postwar era out of its own interests it does definitely feel like theres a risk of moving away from that i mean the real danger is if this grows into a tit for tat. If europe responds in july as it plans to do currently and then if it goes beyond that if trump follows through with the punitive tariffs on automobiles which is currently being explored by the government then things get very serious because then youll see a slow divide a wedge going through europe because obviously the germans have a very different perspective because automobiles are the sort of the engine of the economy whereas france has different take theyd like to be very firm with trump but france doesnt even really sell it will beals in the United States theyve been absent from the market for decades whether in fact they spreads on to the automobile sector is very much a question of the potential for an escalating trade war that you talked about in your Opening Statement lets first take a look at their reaction to the u. S. Announcement that the steel and aluminum tariffs would now be applied to some of the u. S. Closest trading partners and friends. President trump seems to get along with canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau almost as well as he does with french president emanuel microns. But neither trudeau nor micro manage to talk the president out of imposing the tariffs. Donald trump has launched an assault on International Trade and those affected are pretty upset the fact that the president has moved forward with these tariffs is not just going to hurt canadian job just going to hurt us jobs as well. And i believe its important for the e. U. To make a rapid and appropriate response within the framework of the w. T. To go we believe these tariffs are not consistent with w t a regulations. This is a but they put the word. Tariffs is this how america treats its friends. So as we all know donald trump is a bargain or a deal maker and in that context or daniels are the europeans perhaps taking these terrorists too seriously is this actually just trumps opening bid in a poker game and might be but a i would say the especially the European Commission thats responsible for trade policy in the e. U. Is taking a very rational and proportionate approach right now and its obvious and they have to keep that this early on that they need to be some Counter Measures but theyre proportionate and now of course everyone is waiting on what will be the next step on the u. S. Side but we also have to consider that this significant amount of opposition to further tariffs on cars autos auto parts and so on within the u. S. It would also be much more hurtful if she took that action i want to talk about that in just a moment but just to drill a little bit deeper on what we heard from ralph and a moment ago its an argument that has been made by the trumpet. Ministration that there are great disparities if you look at overall e. U. Customs duties on american imports compared to overall american duties on imports from the e. U. Now i did check the numbers last night official w t o numbers it says that on average the difference is about one point seven percent not all that large it would seem whats your assessment on that you are a trade expert well its a typical rhetorical trick i would say on the side of donald trump and also his advice is. To just take one piece out of the whole picture and then blow it up so obviously i mean the rule which is that actually the automobile pieces i understand right here there is a real disparity and not even all kinds of automobiles because if you take pickups this is much higher tariffs on pickups in the u. S. Imported from the e. U. Than anything else and anywhere else in the word so it always depends on what parts of the whole picture you look at and also i mean generally it makes very little sense to look at the trade balance is that this has often been set in this whole debate on tariffs it makes no sense to just look at trades and goods and not consider the significant. Trade surplus and services that the u. S. Has the European Union whats your response to that because i know that in your day job besides working with republicans overseas you are involved in the Financial Sector that means you are involved in cross border financial flows are you not concerned that the risks of this action could be a lot greater than the potential gains if were talking about only an overall difference of one point seven percent is it really risk worth or worth risking a trade or a first of all no its not i mean i dont see a trade where first of all. Second of all i just want to add something to the figure one point seven it depends if you really weigh the the the trade could be i have figures up to two and a half percent but lets put it in between one one point seven and two percent talking about six percent in one direction and four percent in the other still is about a third difference which is quite a lot referring to the volume of trade first of all and i think there are some disparities are part referring to duty to actual tariffs as they are and on a broad range of products in the end it was a one point to go shoot it absolutely correct but at some point trade developed differently some goods are likely like not not exported anymore some some even more extended exported even more so there is an imbalance in this and balance i believe needs to be fixed so i think it was a very mild shock from the trumpet ministration to go on those tariffs and i think at i at i think we should now go into talks that was just like its as you mentioned it a bit in a poker game i believe in the end we should go on maybe go back to t. T. Ip and go back that it was a transatlantic trade agreement that in fact the u. S. Yeah also walked away from up slowly but maybe thats a new opportunity for the new talks maybe we should take out the investment part because that was like the europeans are very critical in that part and we should to only talk about trade but that would be a good start for them for new negotiation. We just heard referencing he doesnt think this could escalate into a full fledged trade war you did mention that possibility in your Opening Statement we have seen both the e. U. Canada and mexico now announcing what are called counterbalancing measures that means additional targeted terrorists within the w t o system but that definitely would take this to another level still largely political symbolism these products that have been chosen by cecilia monstro are directed. Its a great commissioner for the e. U. For that you from sweden and she selected products that are symbolic because they come from areas where trump was elected and sort of the idea is to directly hit that i mean its not i express my fears earlier i do see a wedge being drawn between europe and i think if it if it gets more serious a trade war could see a division between france and germany but its not in europes interest to have a trade war with the United States its our closest trading partner here are very close as trading partner and we need to come to some sort of compromise and i think if you talk to any sensible german politician they also know that something has to be done with the tariffs on the imports and exports here and so we need to find we need to find a middle ground on this and im optimistic that that will happen i just fear that with all of these other unilateral factors in the sort of you know bully schoolyard bully on the playground factor that trump represents that its going to create a lot of tensions and tensions are is background said youre not going to negotiate when the gun is at your head up front donald trump tweeted some months ago with the terrorists were first announced the trade wars are easy to win do you really think that the u. S. Can emerge economically unscathed from a further escalation of this and particularly wont there at the very least the political fallout if in fact europeans stop buying for example so you beans from farmers in the midwest well certainly not nobodys interested in a trade war but still the u. S. Has in the short run more to gain than to lose because the europeans are exporting more into the u. S. Than vice versa so in the beginning if u. S. Based manufacturers use steel and aluminum that are imported that means u. S. May see less six x. Or more expensive exports which asserts one one half percent of all trade so in the beginning i believe is more symbolic i believe in the long run but also heard the u. S. Economy but drive the beginning because europe is just more dependent on. And on the north American Market which is the largest market in the world the interest is more european side than in us side and i think to trump is playing that card but hes not going to pull it at one point Laura Daniels weigh in on this if you would please and i asked earlier about the prospects for the rules based order one us commentator said when the terrorists were first announced that this would later be regarded as the day the w t o died the World Trade Organization is there something to that argument well this another problem that we tend to forget and that is u. S. Policy toward the w t o and the Court Systems that did this buttes it Settlement System off the w t o and the us is currently blocking nominations of judges and that is a major problem because in any kind of dispute settlement process that we might end up in between the u. S. And the e. U. And also canada mexico and all of the other countries you dont have a functioning dispute Settlement System so that is the bigger problem i would say rather than talking about tariffs on steel or t. Shirts and bourbon and so on we should probably focus attention to that problem and then the u. S. Is sort of leaning back in it in saying it we need reforms but then then no proposals for what kind of reforms theyre looking for and thats a problem so we need to get back to the negotiation table. That the g seven g twenty level are in the membership and discuss those problems and its true that those problems date back further than the presidency thats a valid argument there lindsey is there a potential argument to be made that this could even strengthen the w t o in the sense that china at least is suddenly saying very good things about the d a w t o and interestingly enough the city and also mum strummed the trade commissioner you just mentioned she has now filed a complaint not only against the u. S. Actions but against china in the w t o for its pact. Its on International Intellectual Property so are we seeing perhaps at least some parties reawakening to a sense of how important it actually is i think again i think thats also another symbolic move because while the e. U. Has also. Lodged a complaint against the United States at the w t o and china at the same time so it sort of shows the United States that by going after china it shows that we take the core issue with steel and other things which is actually china very seriously and so were going to have a two prong approach were going to challenge you but we are also going to challenge china so i think there is also a willingness within the e. U. To reform the w. T. Oh we just have to get down at the table and i say we im american but you have the just need to get back down at the table and have a serious conversation and speak and they want to add we have to keep a close look on the interests of each country certainly we are claiming free trade in in fields where we are very competitive and in fields where were not very competitive for not claiming free trade you know of course the chinese want to export their steel and they aluminum of course and the germans want to export their cars but vice versa the europeans you know have very high high high high high tariffs and cultural goods for instance and so on so so so the interest the w t os always to strengthen for their own Competitive Industries i mean that thats typical let me. Ask us to take a look at the implications of all of this for europe as a whole because some people say this is a watershed moment not only for the transatlantic relationship and for the c. E. O. But also for europe nationalism and populism are on the rise here as well making it harder than ever for the e. U. To unite on a strong course of action in response to americas terrorists. Italys new Prime Minister is pure sceptic content he leads a Coalition Government that includes an Antiestablishment Party and a right wing party the country says hes opposed to the new austerity measures to reduce the countrys debt. Constrained Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy wants to tossed out of office last week after a vote of no confidence in prochoice Conservatives Peoples Party has been plagued by corruption scandals for years. In slovenia the center right anti immigration Slovenian Democratic Party one of the most seats in recent parliamentary elections. The s. D. P. Focused its campaign on refugee policy. Is the European Union losing its grip on. Delancey let me pass that question right on to you coupled with coming back to what you said earlier you see a potential for divisions particularly even within between france and germany if this trade war or trade conflict does heat up so perhaps you can Say Something about that as well i see two scenarios one is trumps over all actions are playing into the hands of the populous in europe it could serve to energize them which would further divide the European Union and you know protectionism which is what donald trump is pursuing right now is something that would also be pursued by the populace in Different Countries so it kind of feeds into that but at the same time you also see people coming together so the question is going to be you know france and germany are playing basically one role right now in rushing up the pressure on the United States but which of these will prevail in the end that its too soon to tell Laura Daniels donald trump as we said sees himself as a deal maker in the past couple of weeks it is sometimes sounded as if germanys economics minister sees him self the same way mr meyer has said a couple of things that we need. I think could serve as a basis later on for pushing the e. U. To make a deal and perhaps undermine its own. Commitment to a rule based order. Yes but as far as i know anything done by the German Government as was the french government in this attempt to negotiate with trump and his administration was caught in a tz and also coordinates with the European Commission so i mean do you think it will stay that way Going Forward i truly hope so i think what needs to be done is that a Strong Economy like germany a powerful chancellor like macro needs to. Have a she needs understand the needs of everyone involved and there wont be a common european position unless we astronomers also listen to the needs of the southern countries also the Central Eastern European Countries and thats the only way i mean. To be unified also has costs and you know you have to to do the internal e. U. Bargain first i think thats whats happening right now we see this happening both from and does that internally you bargain get even harder to make given the role of the new u. S. Ambassador here he said this week that he sees his role within his new post as and powering right wing movements that is a very unusual thing for an ambassador to say wouldnt that amount to inciting the divisions we just saw in that report absolutely i think um he crossed a red line for diplomats so i think that thats not appropriate behavior i think you have to understand why he did Foreign Policy should a compilation with should accomplish i mean should accomplish to influence other we should stay in touch with other countries and we should also go shared with other countries on the on Foreign Policy we should never never influence domestic politics i mean thats thats a no go we always you know we know this from the u. S. That the cubans who live in. Now and in florida trying to put pressure on the u. S. Administration always to influence the domestic politics of cuba it never worked out really you should never never try this and i think im a better grand fellows like him should she should learn his lesson and he never should have given the interview to breitbart which is viewed by many in europe as a propaganda channel its like the american version of r. T. Let me ask you this because we are slowly coming to the end of our time we have seen the chancellor Angela Merkel this week giving several interviews in which she continued to take a somewhat ambivalent position in regard to the proposals for european reform that have been put out by french president mccaul and for that reason she is being criticized by some here in germany and in europe as essentially weakening the e. U. At a moment when it badly needs decisive leadership so let me ask of you briefly to answer the question whether trump ism amounts to a test of europes maturity and whether europe can pass that test laura yeah i think america really needs to think of the long term consequences of this reluctance to have more european integration thats a position thats comfortable it gives you more leverage to be ambivalent but now is the moment where you actually need to take a decision and actually the Coalition Agreement between the city you and d. S. P. Dave was pretty clear on where we want to go with this government is going to go in the european integration direction so they should follow through on what they already decided and put down in words and merkel needs to do far more she needs to be courageous or were going to be headed into a deep crisis in the e. U. Yeah and absolutely shes also my chance or a member also sufficient democrats i think she should try to get the pieces together to talk with one voice but certainly not on germanys im on bill maher cause always trying that overall cost should be split up proportionally like lego ball yard and that means really chairman has got to pay the biggest bill im more sure what challenge that we are living in united but economically everybody should has to has to work around at home for us. Thank you very much to all of you for being with us here today and thanks to all of you for tuning in to see you soon. The few can tell a lot about a society by its garbage. The first six muslims for the british the french for many people first their full chance for survival africa is among the most unequal regions in the world. Could be lunch for today just like. Our reporters travel to nairobi and more to meet people who know the true value of garbage. It has created a thriving parallel economy thats been completely ignored by the Financial Markets but what does all this mean for economic inequality around the world. As a starting place was the response to that statement should be yes we are starting to lets walk it because were tired. And actually disrupt an economy the blood the bridge the drug an exclusive report starting june eleventh the d. W. The first. Place. Please. Visit g. W. News live from boulder to his roses living in germany had to the polls for having that site on the future of the countrys controversial president so i get some posts in a fortnight for the one point four million expats could have a Significant Impact on the election also on the program. Afghanistan proposes a weeklong ceasefire with the taliban to mop the festival in so how will the taliban respond well bring you the latest from kabul. Plus the countdown to americas talks with north korea japanese prime