Abroad. Who might succeed him go americal medicals out whats next thats our title on quadriga and here to answer that question our guests today is a political analyst for spiegel online valeries says if a conservative follows back up the possibility of a power struggle with the chancellor is much greater. And its a pleasure to welcome more he can hammond shes an author and an editor at the berlin daily newspaper the tops and she says no matter what happens the Green Party Stands to gain. And very glad to have back on the show hes editor in chief of hunters blood global and he says members decision was both clever and dignified in maine let her stay on as chancellor until twenty twenty one. Pumping her not ungrammatical is the longest serving leader of any western democracy after Donald Trumps election some of the anglosaxon press dubbed her the leader of the free world how she just turned herself into a lame duck and if so what would be the implications for germany for europe and for the world. I think thats a very interesting question i dont think we can really answer that until we see how the power struggle within the Party Resolves that self i think for the free world or for the world having a weak leader in germany as a chancellor is probably probably not a good thing i think thats probably one of the things what were going to see is the power struggle within europe and maybe france has been waiting for an answer for so long so im very interested to see what will happen when she doesnt have that party behind her in fact under this europe had to look to her for leadership on the sovereign debt crisis after russias incursions into ukraine also in dealing with migration but the fact is since this new government took power it basically has looked asleep at the wheel many people in europe have said theyre not hearing anything out of lynne will that change now do you think she seems to think this is a restart. Unfortunately i dont think thatll change soon but you know no way was even worse than you describe because remember when mccrone defeated Marine Le Pen and one big crisis for europe that really would have been a curtain closer no staved off and then everyone told him in berlin you have to wait till september till our federal election and then well help you then the federal election happened and then they said to me across into france you know you have to wait till we form a coalition then want to listen to the words you have to wait till the next one then they have to be they have been telling him to wait for something all this time the last one was he was supposed to wait for the previous Regional Election and now unfortunately everyones telling him he has to wait till december eighth when the merkels party because its true only at that point do we figure out will she get as her party boss a woman who is on her side and everything will be smooth and she will she will be able to make even difficult decision or will she get a man who is essentially a rival it will make life tough for her and i think with the social her Coalition Partners are under pressure to show that there can still Work Together because theyre under pressure to pull out so theyre going to work down a laundry list of little domestic stuff theyve written down but i think they will do nothing big for europe for the forseeable future let me see if i can take out a different opinion over here. Certainly under medical thinks this is a catalyst for change she said when she made her announcement that her government has conveyed what she called an absolutely unacceptable image abroad and at home and basically its been riven with dissension it is perceived as utterly self absorbed couldnt that change thanks to this decision by her yes perhaps its very very vivid because we have a crisis without a crisis jim is booming we have a. Employment everyone is happy about the state of the economy so theres no problem no where to be honest no problem and you know youre in a very calm country to have this government being ripped by attentions and perhaps that could get data but it is as angry as could said it really depends on who is being voted for in this Party Convention if it is someone who is antagonistic to mack and then of course you will have the distended tensions keeping on and then the next this is it will be who is going to be chancellor so then my coal can keep on waiting nothing really. In europe i think thats one of the most interesting things is that as you said we have a Strong Economy in germany theres almost no ones unemployed anymore and yet we have this big divide with in the country and it does come down i mean we have we see the rise of the if and the rise of leftwing populism so if. Its a good question why is that happening the rise of the far right. Party the alternative for germany is of course one source of the internal dissension that has bedeviled this government from the start lets take a closer look at some of the developments that have in fact tarnished the city used standing and provoked this very fateful step by a chance to who would seem to be almost a permanent feature of germanys political landscape. Germany opened its borders to refugees in the summer of two thousand and fifteen as a humanitarian gesture. Chancellor merkel believed it was the right thing to do. But since then merkels popularity has declined steadily especially among people who live in eastern germany. The refugee crisis also created tensions in her conservative coalition. Some of her opponents said she should have taken a tougher stand. Interim minister horse as a whole for has been a particularly vocal critic of americas refugee policy. And there was another sign that merkel had been weakened politically the election overall for breakouts has c. D. U. C. S. U. Parliamentary group leader. Instead of the chancellors preferred candidate for pick out or. What lies ahead for the c. D. U. Once america leaves. And close clip it has become something of a truism to say that by blurring the conservative profile of the c. D. U. By taking the party toward the middle of the political spectrum on issues like migration among others that uncle americal essentially lost voters to the right Wing National party but could one also say that by taking the party in that direction she gained voters who otherwise would never have voted conservative unfortunately not the interesting trend is that we saw in this region most recent Regional Election confirmed is that her party loses almost exactly the same number of voters to the alternative for germany the anti migrant right party and to the green party which is the most open to migrans progressive party. So its more like the party her own conservative bloc is split there is a there is a tension within it and voters are defecting for the two poles that are clear on the subject thats essentially the trend thats whats eating them up and thats why the next party leader will so important as they have to resolve that reunited but also resolve that and orica hamman told us that the greens are the winners in this in this whole equation i want to come back to that a little bit later on about first of all tell me do you think we will see the c. D. U. Angle Americas Party turned sharply to the right now that shes stepping down as party leader i dont really think so because you know you can see that in all elections especially in the states the regional states they have won by those candidates in the middle of the road and if. The conservative party shifts to the right as the sea is you did varia they lose heavily so i think that every tactician in these party knows that they have to keep on staying in the middle and you can see that the new. Candidate for the Party Leadership who is by birth very right wing now tries to go into the middle i mean his he had a press conference on tuesday and he was very very. Laid back when it came to conservatives and he was he really tried to anger for the green voters so you see i think that basically nothing really will change if he only tried to be a bit more conservative than not looking more conservative than if you asked me he seemed to be trying to angle for everybody certainly to say that he thinks that the party needs to win back some of those who have drifted away that it needs a sharper profile he left it pretty open whether he would take the party to the right if in fact he does become party leader very hard. Just take us if you would briefly through these three main candidates to take over from chancellor merkel as party leader and where they might in fact take the party briefly if youre good. Theres any good come come bowa very very difficult name and shes merkels favorite or is considered merkels favorite shes moderate shes more conservative on. Issue regarding for example she was against the legalization of gay marriage but she so she is more conservative in aspects but on the whole she is moderate and then we have. A very conservative who just wrote a big article in the efforts at the goodman atheism where he said that the migration crisis was something the party needed to go back to needed to talk about her decision in two thousand and fifteen to open or not open the borders but to let the people in that that was really the turning point and he wanted to go back to that so quite contrary to what i think matz that and then you have people mattes who for some reason everyone now thinks is the big. Almost the like theyre calling him matthias great who is going to really unify the party and obviously young people. Dont really know him that well from two thousand and two when he left and so its going to be very interesting to see how hes going to present himself also with his background he was he was. He was like. A liberal what we called him and yesterday he said he was not actually going to let the so if to the middle that essentially is business friendly hes been a high powered corporate lawyer for the past nearly ten years. And hes also been the head of the Supervisory Board here in germany of the worlds biggest Investment Fund so i think we can certainly. I think that we would see from him a business friendly set of policies and just a reminder by the way for the viewers that fish math is a political old hand he was in fact edged out of power as the head of the conservative Parliamentary Group by the chancellor herself so lets say he came back and did in fact become party leader business friendly policies are not going to win back these voters who have drifted away to the right wing a. F. D. Party would you expect to see someone like friedrichs mounts put into place much stricter policies on migration for example or integration. Well first of all when merkel ousted mad she was not yet chancellor that was the whole thing she was party leader and she wanted to be leader of the Parliamentary Group which she was and she kicked him out and he sulked and he was upset and apparently hes never lived down the hurt so theres a lot of personal problems between the two which which is why i think even though she might ride out the chance to ship until two thousand and twenty one if she doesnt its because they cant figure it out together he tried to deny that yesterday he said will make it work but there is there is personal animosity between them until now it will on migration so hes probusiness yes thats what hes most famous for i would say from the old days is a radical tax reform where he wanted to we would say have your tax return done on a postcard because its so simple actually well if youre going to say it was interesting yesterday because there because it everything is about beer so am so in it by the way i think that being a good idea id like to just do it on a beer coaster and be done it just would simplify things but i think thats not the issue really going on today it is migration and it is europe on europe hes written in my publication just this past week by the way remarkable essay with you know going to hamas and in there were six authors where theres calling for more concessions essentially to mccrone for a bigger move in europe so i think he is trying and he has changed in these years and thats what we all have to get reacquainted with them on migration to be honest thats the funny thing youre saying will he crack down closed borders no hes going to try to do it the european way the way home and cole would have done it the old european way but the funny thing is in this is where all rickey was perfectly right you know remember. Just point this is a crisis without a crisis weve essentially for the time being controlled the migration crisis there arent that many people coming there is order established he doesnt have to do anything at the moment so i dont expect any big changes there. To some degree it seems as if the lure of free dismounts and also just for the viewers this politician were referring to has in fact been leading in the polls if if surveys are done of germans it seems that many would prefer to see flutist math to some degree it seems to me as if the lure of math is that he would return the c. D. U. To being a mass party what the germans call it folks parti and i ask myself is that of the great folks parti and parties that regularly have thirty forty percent of the vote is that ever going to return you know you never know because they see you and. Was focused the time it was a mass party and thats just four years ago so you cannot really say that the year of the parties is gone but i think that the lure of. Something different he comes out of the cold he is not known he is someone you cannot project everything on on his figure whatever you want to and we had the same really this same phenomenon with the social democrats just one year ago but they had a candidate quote came from europe no one knew him so at the beginning everyone was just happy to have him he had he was voted for as a party leader by a hundred percent and four months later he was destroyed because once people got to know him they realised that they didnt have any program and any ideas and i think the same thing could happen to us he comes out of the cold he is not known everyone things see is somehow the new leader everyone thought they did for but he doesnt have any program and i think in fact shows. That is really a crisis in the party in the c. D. U. Because they did not have a candidate of their own. America leaving leaves a Party Without any leader so they had to take someone like a mess who is supposed to be charismatic to be honest i can see him being charismatic but anyway they needed someone from outside to revive the party that really shows how tired the party is. Probably her into the chancellor maintains that she does intend to remain in power until twenty twenty one i think if her successor were one of these two men either for days math or the younger. Who by the way is now Health Minister in germany what she in fact the able to maintain her position as chancellor both of them are said to be rivals and are certainly critics well placemats yesterday he really emphasized on how he wanted to work with her but i cant imagine how would they do that she pushed him out she ruined his career his political career obviously hes a millionaire and he did quite well for himself but but. I cant imagine how they would Work Together and i dont think that still say it if one of the two when i dont think shell stay in power until twenty twenty one because as i said in the beginning what would that mean for the world how would how would she be able to push her policies if she doesnt have her own party behind her and also with the parliamentary leader she has a new parliamentary leader she lost that vote and so her favorite wasnt elected i dont see it i dont see how she could how she could survive that and risk losing at a purely technical level its interesting how would she be toppled yeah i say because the germany is a little bit different than other countries it would have to happen in parliament and they have a construct of. Fote of no confidence rule so they would have they could vote her out but theyd have to vote someone in at the same time now for murchison point of view that they obviously we all agree they they hate each other basically but theyre also very professional and they have to make some sort of deal where he doesnt undermine her and she doesnt as chancellor hes going to be the next candidate for the party so she cannot do things to undermine him so they have to say there is a harmony of interest. If they figure it out right where she campaigns for him or at least doesnt do anything that makes him look terrible but if the social democrats at that point with this guy if he wins flee to his mounts theyre going to be happy first of all because hes very different from the social democrats again and theyve been worried that they dont look any different so then they could get out of the coalition then theres a then there is something that brings to the parliament the bonus talk of vote of no confidence and then someone else would be voted in and that would probably in that case be free to the mts so on balance i agree with you because i think you are going there if its hit if its any good come shell go all the way through if its please mts then they will try to make a deal but it wont last and shell be out so he could have just. Remind us because not all of our viewers are fully acquainted with parliamentary democracy or can we be pretty sure that whoever gets appointed party leader in december is going to be the next chancellor candidate of the conservative party most probably yes but its of course anything depends i mean if lets say a clear is being elected as party leader and then there will be no new elections then he has two years to really ruin himself so that might happen you never know because you know it is a problem that he was a lobbyist for the economy for big corporations he is in the end he cannot hide to see how a lobbyist and he was a lobbyist can be the chancellor of germany thats really hard to see so you know once everyone gets over this astonishment that matz is back you know he will be needled and theres lots of time to get ruined i mean even for four weeks can be enough it might not even be sure that he gets elected as a party leader because for weeks now these will be very intensive times for him but of course normally the Party Leaders also of the chancellor i want to know at the close because we only have about five minutes left in the program i want to take us back to the topic of leadership german leadership and also the chancellor because this is a historic moment i think that we are seeing the and the beginning of the end of the era of Angela Merkel so lets listen to a sound bite from one of the chancers closest associates the current president of the bundestag and the former finance minister of im sure the. Reason of the group is not necessarily as effective today as she was when she was at the height of her power to. Thats clear from the recent election results. From them is big but when you compare her to others she is still fairly strong to me so like. How would you describe the leadership that we have seen from uncle americal its going to be also the beginning of writing the history book entries on this chancellor well i think were going to see something she was very unifying and i do think that a lot of women who would have never voted conservative voted conservative because of her. But she was also a little too pragmatic like the emotion of politics she kind of drained the emotion of politics so im interested to see if were going to look back on this era as sort of almost all slow to come except for obviously twenty fifteen and then see now a little more emotion a little more verb in politics. Ok to ham and im glad that valerie mentioned the point about women because i think it was astonishing to see the tributes that poured in even from political opponents. She was the most gifted politician we had in germany except folk on hot out and all and i mean im sure she will be remembered as an astounding woman and for women it really was very liberating to have her as a chance to because fever really showed him and know how to do it and it will be very hard for any man to follow how and i dont have clue is there anyone out there who you would say thats the kind of leadership we need to follow this chancellor is there any politician you know on the german political stage where you would say yes that is someone who could follow on from her and take germany in the direction it needs to go no one of her legacies is to have made it possible for anyone to build a stature where we would already know if they can be that leader however shes always said someone always steps up someone has now stepped up we will he has a chance to ruin himself but someone will be even im going merkel wasnt always uncle merkel she was she has her self this week that she was born in chancellor but i think well i think itll be a long evening even she you know shes so hated and quite loved but there we would be lucky if we could get another angle a miracle because when all is said and done and when the history of islam reflect that she was basically a woman who was fairly free of vanity which is rare in politics and fundamentally decent to pragmatic except when she thought it touched her moral compass and she didnt want men women and children to be turned back with fire hoses by men in german uniforms and i think that took a stature and courage that we will miss now and it will be one of her greatest achievements in a ten years time everyone will be proud. In germany that he took the syrians you know it im sure it will be her biggest achievement of all when you look back i think shes one of the smartest people ever in german politics and i think were going to miss having a very very smart leader and as your paper said is they they had this whole thing is germany is germany ready for a male chancellor i thought that. Thanks very much to all of you and please note the gender balance here on this panel thank you very much for being with us thanks to all of you out there for turning turning against the use of. Kick off wires lead to football personally i am aware that. The world cup one of the fronts in the rising star in the bundesliga still. Well is he comes from. What his future ambitions. To. Lead your sport t. V. The smarter with the d. W. Force more. Of what you watch for when you want it up to date extraordinary. To decide blood song sunday morning jog come smarties. In january twenty eighth teen we met a chinese mother looking for her son after she was sold by human smugglers. Now were back with tangerine chains and shes still ok im going to accompany her to police stations of what friends orphanages will touching jane never see her son again. The whole story in every corner on t w. The body was a human made comes on the first global disaster of the twentieth century. More to the. Dont wars cost millions of lives. Were in one. Month ember marks the hundredth anniversary of its. What has humankind learned from the great more. As it learned anything at all. Just real peace and possibility. Nineteen eighteen not forgotten w. s november focus. This is d w news coming to you live from berlin the dangers of being a journalist in myanmar ever more reporters in the country are being locked up simply for doing their job why is de facto leader also also chief so determined to silence her critics with a special report from now along also coming up german chancellor Angela Merkel and her cabinet are due in poland for what set to be a tense meeting among the issues on the agenda more souls demands for reparations for germanys occupation of poland during world war two
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