And the populist far right alternative for Germany Party so what will it all mean for Angela Merkel and her Coalition Government here in berlin this week here on quadriga question is be very a vote watershed in germany and to discuss that question im joined by three journalists here in the studio beginning with Matthew Carney snake chief europe correspondent of politico who says a poor showing from the c. S. U. In bavaria is likely to make the party being friendly more disruptive in scotland and will raise serious questions about the stability of medical scholarship also with this isnt rational our Senior Correspondent with Reuters News Agency who believes that the election will be a referendum on chancellor Angela Merkels love lust and fractured Ruling Coalition interesting better than priya and while marking to supersede a festering a freelance journalist who argues that the election in bavaria will be a victory for democracy interesting too that comment shall begin with you between or everybody saying its a Regional Election its a state election maybe not too important but it could genuinely be a watershed both of bavaria and at the National Level what do you say i think thats both perfectly true obviously it has an impact in bavaria if a party that has ruled alone. For nearly all of the last sixty years and has never been in opposition gets hammered and seriously reduced in numbers it will still be in the government so. Outwardly i think perhaps not even that much will change varia i think in some ways the effects will be more dramatic in berlin because all the ruling the Ruling Coalition of america in berlin is the put the parties that it consists of are said to suffer in the very and suffer badly thats true not just for the c. S. U. But also for the social democrats. Macca herself will carry some of the blame for the bavarian results and her Coalition Partners will make sure to try to make her take the maximum of it. And unrest that they know own party is growing and you said you believe that the votes will be a victory for democracy what did you mean exactly is it supposed very positive spin on completely and im i will start with that i think on two parts first of all i think its absurd for democracy to be ruled by the same party for sixty years in that sense moving closer towards a change of government in bavaria is good for democracy and its also good for the state because parties that are too long and get too crusty. But secondly i think perhaps even more important in. This Political Climate that we have no i think theres a few in bavaria is getting punished for being too populist to populist populist number to cross to the c s youve been a cornerstone of german politics for sixty years tell us a little bit more about the policy of the party has you know it had to find itself for many years as not allowing anything to the right of it so you know i remember in the one nine hundred eighty s. Going to ring there of a much earlier bavarian Regional Election and seen Campaign Posters that were very anti foreigner at that point in time migrant its a flavor that the d. V. Alternative for Germany Party has adopted and and has succeeded with since two thousand and thirteen so the c. S. U. Of this the varian conservatives have shifted a bit i think from the perspective of the far right voters they have become attracted to this far right party because they feel that the conservatives have left that space open and so theyve taken that space. On the other hand you could say that the very im a leader the leader of their own party horse stable whos also the interior minister has pursued a course of attacking tenser merkel over and over again over her policies on migration and thats had some backlash because there are people in bavaria and i know several who vote who would normally vote perhaps a few deer green but have voted deliberately for the c. S. U. To support machall and her open door migrant policy so theyre into is he spent too harshly too so he just its been a very difficult. Period i think for the for the Bavarian Party to sort of find the right course forward and the victors in the midst of all of us are going to be the graves who are doing better than ever before and it will grow the gradually breath you tell us a little bit more but it seems you will drive you to viewers need to know about the c. S. U. From your perspective. Well i think they reflect the problem that a lot of mainstream sort of incumbent centrist parties in europe are facing at the moment and and there its particularly poignant because theyve been at the focal point of this migration crisis as some people call it and you know on the one hand they have this rhetoric is under a set of being tough on refugees and they have this tradition of doing that but in practice i think a lot of people in bavaria look at what has happened with migration and refugee policy over the past couple of years and they say well you know they talk a good game but in practice nothing has really changed in terms of what does the c. S. U. Has promised in terms of really you know tightening tightening things and you know for example putting more people on the border theyve done that but theyre not really border controls of the kind that they will still need to throw out there is all sort of small fries a lot of sort of you know potemkin village type of stuff and i think that you know people are stupid and they realize that and thats obviously been an opening for the f. T. And on the one hand and obviously on for the greens on the other so youre seeing you know really a fracturing of the landscape so i agree that you know in principle its good for democracy not to have one party in power here but i think that the larger story in bavaria right now is that youre seeing just how how potent this migration issue remains on politics in this country because this is really what has has triggered this theres no reason that the c. S. U. Should be losing and very right now the economy is booming unemployment is below three percent its one of the richest regions in europe not just in germany so you know this is why theres this frustration of the leaders you know who are running for the c. S. U. Because they dont get it i mean theyve done everything right you know according to their usual playbook and its and its not working and i think this is what really has to be worrying people in berlin and that is why also the c. D. U. Until Americans Party is so concerned about the very right and you know matthew i think that part of this is that. The you know people of pick out of the air fifty vote in the support of the f. D. A. Has been largely a protest vote not really sure thats true i think you know what its saying is that people are voting sort of against their interests the c. S. U. Is the lead bavaria to this incredible wealth thats very. So Something Else is going on under underneath that level and that is this set of discomfort that germany has with its role as a country of migration as that as an immigrant as a country of immigrants and that is something that is the flavor that you know whether its the lack of integration of the turks before them the italians greeks who came to work in germany they sort of difficulty in integrating those who are ethnic germans who came from russia and kazakhstan and now most recently this sense of not real of just feeling completely overwhelmed by the arrival of a million muslims most the muslim migrants from syria and iraq and afghanistan just not knowing how to deal with that and that i think is part of what in germany is startling with writ large well in a very i think that they feel that you know in particular because theyre right on the southern border of germany with austria where in two thousand and fifteen a lot of these refugees most refugees actually came over the very in border so they have this real kind of fear a lot of people down there of the hordes kind of coming up from the south and overrunning the country and this is what they are you know has played on a fairly successful im not so sure that i agree with all of that i mean first of all the a fifty in bavaria said to get about twelve thirteen fourteen percent which is nowhere what it is getting in eastern germany where they know migrants i know my guns came through even so i mean just image of hordes coming from the south i really dont buy into that i think one aspect which we havent mentioned so far is. That is you is being punished too for being so difficult in the government been in people did not like say who for the party had an interior minister in berlin to obstruct mechelen every bit and also we have a lot of the variance who are good catholics and the c. S. U. Is called Christian Christian social union it has a lot of members who are good catholics and do not like to see that rhetoric and he should against refugees let me pick up on your first point and well get some images first of all before we continue the debate lets just talk about the acrimony at National Level between c. S. U. C. D. U. And the other coalition of the past that if you will because certainly the story of the past few weeks here in germany has been of that toxic rivalry between the two c. S. U. Big beasts party leader and interior minister horse a whole for whose order the mention of the varian state premier and one of the party leader mark and that battle has still left holds to say hope for enough time to indulge in his other favorite pastime mentioned already as well the ongoing settling of scores with Angela Merkel lets have a look. Sometimes a look can speak a thousand words. German interior minister and head of the bavarian c. S. U. Twice drove the governing coalition in berlin to the brink of collapse and plunged. Into disbelief. First it was over the deportation of refugees along the various border with austria then it was over the fate of huns master the controversial head of the Domestic Intelligence agency. Sale for the stubborn dyed in the wall politician from the very word a certain type of man calls the shots the very instant premier marcus third hour is the same time for years the socalled alpha males of the c. S. U. Engaged in grueling power struggles until the top of the hole from who then went to berlin. And at the very end boys isnt even about politics anymore. Thats enough politics planted by or personalities what we go i think as a huge amount of personalities involved here i think is a man who is very egocentric and who will bear a grudge until you know the day of the last judgment. I cannot see these very much in the twilight of his career it has to be said he doesnt have much time now to really get on the americans nerves which seems to be his sort of selfimposed mission in life at this point in time he certainly made good use of the last months to lash out at her theres no doubt about that you know hes hes been ticked i think and a little man he dug and the head of the Domestic Intelligence agency mohsen. On these theyre serious i actually saw him last summer in east germany have one Campaign Appearance in met him back supplement and he used that to talk about how things were so wonderful with america and although theyve had trouble they were actually they had a lot of respect for each other but as soon as they got back into a Coalition Government and started all over again it was really just a campaign but i think of the various not so much the feud with miracle that is that is hurting him because this is to a degree what the variance expect of their leaders in berlin to not you know toe the party line all the time americal actually is not very popular in a lot of the very which is why they have deform example has put up posters saying vote c. S. U. And youll get medical so you know theres a very anti american chone in this campaign down there and she hasnt really appeared i think shes made want to perience in during the campaign for the c. S. U. And i think the problem that sable for and the other c. E. O. s you people have there is that their big selling point has been always that if you vote for the c. S. U. Youre voting for a party that has a seat at the big table in berlin and its unique in that respect because if you vote for the greens theyre tied to a federal party that the s. P. D. The social democrats the same sort of thing but that the c. S. U. Is the only party that will you know represent varia in berlin and again through this refugee crisis and his disputes with merkel recently that show not to be true that he has been able to push through a very an agenda in. Berlin and people are are noticing that and are very frustrated with the c. S. Used failure over the past couple of years to do what they promised to do and i think thats why were where we are now and thats also why the greens are doing so well because a lot of people on the other hand to you know might have voted for the c. S. U. Previously more and more liberal types have been offended by all of this this very aggressive rhetoric thats come from say whole friend and the others recently talk about the very aggressive rhetoric thats who ladies at the table to what extent is this about alpha males mentioned in the reports never really accepting a female chancellor never having developed properties lawrence for a female leader in germany. Im not sure i follow you on this one i think you know america has been in power for thirteen years now and she has been able to kill off every ofa maid who thought he could come in and dominate. I mean anybody whos still in power and still somebody in power today know that she is fierce and that she is ruthless and that she is very skilled and very experienced and i think thats not the way to go about getting rid of her under and i think i agree with that tina but i think a lot of whats happening in bavaria is really that voters dont like hypocrisy and they dont like flip flops and thats happened a lot you know theres been this sort of appeasement of of you know sort of moving toward marco and then moving away and then. The runs the party now in bavaria. And its im sorry who is the premier and of area he is he has changed course hes had a very kind of far right kind of rhetoric and then all of a sudden realize that was backfiring in the polls decided to take a different tack and to attack the f. T. And all of that back and forth really makes voters very upset the person who could benefit from all of this if things go really south is if that who is then a long time german bavarian politician systemic kind of quiet spend a little bit in the background and if the if the party gets really upset with both they hope and so i think if i can i could come out and be the Bavarian Party leader its an interesting one ok matthew was mentioned its already been very it certainly has a lot going for it its among the most prosperous parts of germany so the lowest unemployment the lowest crime rates it leads the way in education its home to knowing Blue Chip Companies its even recently announced that it has its own Space Program but its shakespeare much is said to something rotten in the state of bavaria. Could all be so lovely even the rest of the World Associates but there you are with beer october fest leader who isnt turned off and of course by in munich who pretty much always win normally but ariel also stands for b. M. W. Seamans high tech business and a Natural Union leader who isnt and laptops reaching the top by combining tradition with modernity is the on off that is still the position of political leaders across the globe and we want to get to where you got everyones already are not by munich but the free state of bavaria. It certainly has more to offer than just fairy tale castles and breathtaking landscapes so why are the variants of all people so dissatisfied with their political leaders. Do you want to come back to that question matthew because our view is abroad will be fascinated by this at such a prosperous region of germany and they. Might simply cheesed off the people of bavaria with their leaders whats gone wrong whats the problem that. Well you know i think that theres not just one one cause i think weve talked about some of the reasons the asylum issue the refugee issue is is one thing but something that you know people into very a would say and in the c. S. U. Is that theyve been a victim of their own success in a way because the prosperity down there has created so many jobs and youve seen the population go from just just over the past few years from eleven to thirteen million so theyve theyve really grown quite a lot but those people have come from other parts of germany mainly from you know the northern regions of germany who dont have a natural affinity for the c. S. U. He didnt grow up with the c. S. U. Its important to know that the c. S. U. Operates a real political machine down there and they have very close ties to the Catholic Church and particularly in rural areas you people come up through these these organizations these youth organizations and its just its a way of life and you know its tied to the church its tied to the to the local in where people meet for their you know weekly beer and this type of thing and so theres a real network there and that will remain and this is one of the think the interesting things that will play out in the coming years if this election really is a disaster for them is are they able to maintain this dominance that they have at the local level because they also control two thirds of the local districts there so you know i think that this idea of it becoming more diverse is something that they didnt they in the c. S. U. Didnt really realize was happening and what that would mean that people from other parts of the country are not in tune with their sort of conservative view of the world i think you can also say that the s. P. Day the social democrats have also lost support in the various so it really is i think the kind of phenomenon that we also britain with in the United States with the election of donald trump that voters are not happy with politics as you know with the status quo. With the way that things have always then i want to change save saying that i have a laugh voters are doing pretty well in the hall for a regular list yeah if you want right and and the greens are trying very well but those two big you know sort of centrist established parties are not the parties that are in control in berlin and this sort of exactly but i would think the greenies the greens we would have much time and out of really want to know why the greens as so successful at this point in time eighteen percent twice as much as last time i think through no merit of their own water at all. I think they just sit there was waiting for everybody else to make mistakes or disillusioned their voters or whatever and they just collect whats left on the floor there are a lot of people but you know who are suddenly talking about the. New a sharpshooter in german politics weve seen before the National Level weve seen it in growth back in neighboring varia a conservative Green Coalition of course we can see that and we are going to see that and perhaps in bavaria too after after after the sunday but that doesnt mean that the greens have come up with any stock of new policies over the last twelve months theyre just not having to meet ideas of what to do about all the ills that we see in the world think nothing they are really doing nothing except the others are doing worse than nothing nothing and so they benefit well i think the greens benefit culturally from the fact that the s. P. D. The social democrats have this kind of identity crisis at the moment is the Traditional Labor Party and a lot of you know particularly urban voters who are Young Professionals they dont really culturally identify with the s. P. D. They tend to be invariably the offspring of c. S. U. Voters so they come from the same sort of you know cultural universe and so its not a big leap for people to to vote for the greens down there that said i think the youve seen this fracturing of the left as well in germany since the one nine hundred seventy s. Where. He used to just have the s. P. D. The s. P. D. Then lost its sort of ecological wing with that with the greens and then it lost its left wing with the link of the left party in germany so you have you know this this this fracturing of the left and now youre seeing that also happening on on the right with with the f. D. A. And youve got groups like the five alun others and so the question is you know is germany on its way to becoming a country like holland where you have you know twelve thirteen parties you know represented and that could make it in the long term somewhat more difficult to govern as good as that is for democracy this is this period where weve had you know two Party Coalitions maybe maybe coming to an end facilities those whove had so many from each of you were running out some where youve got a minute no underwear on where is this going to leave im going to go this vote and so theres gonna be written that theres really no way to not come out of this a little bit bruised because if the conservative party the conservative party is not going to do well in bavaria its not going to do well in heston the state of hessen have elections in two weeks and pressure will mount for Angela Merkel to accelerate her or her period of succession to move forward the Party Congress in december certainly some challenges but you know what im going to back always surprises people in my seat is such a scrappy survivor thing she always comes up trumps and somehow thats you know what is this the west is going to leave i completely agree i think mca has caused a lot of this by the vacuum that she left over the past two years weve seen extremely that the leadership from which has left a lot of room for other people to do this and i doubt that. I think if she should she manage to reinvent herself and come up with a story for germany that makes sense to people that explains to them how she sees the country. Future including the million refugees that are living here then she may pull it off if she doesnt i think shed better stop thinking about her succession shes looking for a legacy already could the legacy be coming out of this election that angle a magical passes on to her successors to germany to a policy the prospect of a conservative Green Coalition of the National Level a new blueprint for germany i dont really see that happening to be honest i mean i think that she would like to manage her succession but you know we all know what they say about the the best laid plans i think that you know shes going to lose these elections in the coming months and there could be a dynamic there where shes just going to not be able to steer the party and germany in the direction she would like. And she would be she would be pressured to to to to step down at some point possibly before the you know the end of the term or likely before the end of the term i dont think that these ideas that shes going to be able to nominate somebody as her chosen successor are going are going to turn out i think more likely than a green conservative coalition would be a conservative backlash within the c. D. U. Its just more kind of natural distant disposition anyway ok thank you both very for joining me here today on quite regularly to the real pleasure weve given you over plenty of food for thought a watershed for germany for very a vote thats been a question here according to today if youve enjoyed the show come back next week until then park right and true. Move. Move move. Move move. Move move. Move move. Move move. Move. Move. Move. Move. Move. Move. Move. Move. Move real mock music needs drones galore. 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