That hold it together trust takes a major blow and its every man for himself putting neighbors against each other instead of working together and everyone constantly looking over their shoulder thats not how global trade works but thats whats at stake the Global Economy its a matter of trust and this is the guy i was alluding to the businessman turned reality t. V. Star turned u. S. President do you trust him hes full of the poet it was donald trump once said hell be the greatest jobs president god ever created some studies show the trade war hes created could cost five hundred fifty thousand american jobs wonder if he thought about that. His tariffs on european metal exports are rocking the boat here in europe the blocks economic engine germanys slashing as you will growth forecasts and experts this week saying the boom here is over the main things go to from straight will. You know with us President Donald Trump has declared war. But how does a trade war work. Trump is imposed to raise tariffs on a range of imports from various countries for example twenty five percent on steel and ten percent on aluminum from the European Union. Hes also threatening to slap a twenty percent tariff on cars from europe. He says his aim is to strengthen Manufacturing Industries in the u. S. And boost steel and car production at home. But europe is having none of it the e. U. Has responded by slapping what it calls rebalancing duties on selected u. S. Goods including motorcycles and whiskey thats likely to make those items more expensive in the e. U. So the u. S. Is threatening to slap tariffs on more you goods making them more expensive in america and tending to depress sales there china is also a major target of trumps wrath he evidently believes that keeping foreign goods out of the u. S. Who boost domestic manufacturing. Trade wars actually go way back a famous example was the blockade napoleon imposed on britain in eighteen zero six known as the continental system it was an embargo on the purchase of all British Goods by countries on the european mainland controlled by or allied with friends but the embargo failed to crush britain which found new markets farther afield. From actually when the war here started. To buy american thats what we want by america trump knows that the e. U. s more to lose than the us in their bilateral conflict because the e. U. Had a trade surplus in goods amounting to one hundred fifty one billion euros last year three probably thinks this gives him some leverage. He might seek to make deals with individual European Countries revoking these tariffs if the ease access for u. S. Goods if successful such a strategy would split and weaken the e. U. And trump might believe himself the winner at least for a while. World made America Great again. We mentioned china america buys almost four times as much as it sells there that limits beijings ability to match tariffs just like europe so maybe the us president does have the upper hand and he reckons trade was a good that america is the engine of Global Growth so watch out if trade routes start drawing to a trickle the ties that bind the World Economy are already fraying it cant countries expect to just wait out trumps time in office and hope for a change or has the damage already been done. Takes a look at what could be a bleak future. Imagine the world in ten years time global trade has pretty much ground to a halt ports around the world are almost idle there are shortages of all kinds of goods shops are empty. The United States and china have raise tariffs so drastically that they killed off by lateral trade. In china Harley Davidson motorbikes have become rare collectors items. American whiskey is contraband the market has gone underground. Or imagine this relations between the European Union and the us dont look any better a trade war has crippled their economies g. D. P. Has plummeted and unemployment has soared. Has done no shelter of these realistic scenarios as the real thing its certainly conceivable after all the protectionism predates donald trump. And its all call inside the since the financial crisis of two thousand and seven and weve seen a rise in the protectionism worldwide and we never really recovered from the crisis when this was that people in germany dont see that because the economy here is doing well its booming what was it whats a lot of the global level growth has been significantly lower since that was and that leads to tensions trump is merely a symptom of a more general development not because it would be global but it was a. Shelter is an economist and former Management Consultant as an author and blogger he takes a critical view of World Economic developments. Contacts what might happen if things continue to escalate with more tariffs and counter tariffs. And not enough chinas economy is cooling right now as inflation thats bad because china has taken on a huge oil of debt creates the books if the economy weakens if the chinese. Central bank will have to lower Interest Rates that means the chinese currency will weaken as well. That as the chinese getting even more aggressive in europe the economy is softening as well so the European Central bank will have to stick to its policy of easy money and that will drive the year old lower. To say the europeans are ramping it up and pushing their exports even more. For some four decades the g seven group of rich industrialized nations trying to tackle the problem through Corporation Members promoted multilateral trade agreements as a Solid Foundation for International Commerce but that was then donald trump does not play along his slogan is America First multilateralism is not his thing hes backed out of a number of treaties and agreements and turned conflicts into an all out trade war how could it come to this with one against everyone else. Carrying out what he promised to do hes also being very bold chinas Counter Measures targeting precisely those people who voted for him. You measure still so to buy or closing tariffs on Harley Davidsons and whiskey the aim is to hit the states that voted republican but he carries on nonetheless. Other countries decide to follow his example. I dont think other countries will decide to pursue a policy of protectionism but i do think some politicians will seek to copy him. Trump is showing other populists the way how they might win elections. Tariffs and counter tariffs can easily spiral out of control. Such tit for tat measures are not good for the World Economy companies become reluctant to invest does it really have to be this way. Everybody loses by definition. But those who have a trade surplus lose much more than those with a deficit. Is it is wrong the eurozone should not maintain the kind of surplus spearheaded by germany we should reduce it to do so we have to spend more at Home Companies and the state need to invest more in the name of instead the german state infrastructure fall apart. Twenty eight place out of thirty two according to the o. E. C. D. When it comes to Going Digital so theres plenty to do if we could repair germany show that were. Trying to avoid a trade war that would be the intelligent response. The response to proposes would be a way to prevent the dire scenario of conflict and economic collapse from becoming reality. Good points that the mystic state investment would boost the German Economy and give it much more leverage talking about investing joining the club of unicorns is a very startups dream and youll be founded listed firm worth a billion u. S. Dollars there are only a couple hundred worldwide youve got to come up with a great idea of course youve got to win the trust of investors. At one point u. S. Startup thera notice was worth billions its founders claim to have developed a revolutionary blood testing device that could conduct hundreds of Laboratory Tests using very small samples of blood founder elizabethtown was celebrated as a young female selfmade billionaire but then she was charged with fraud and accused of making false statements about the technology. Industry expert george has marek wasnt surprised he says fraud in the world of startups follows a recognizable pattern. Just one hundred b. C. Its about selling visions and playing with hopes as a prospect of huge profits talk of potentially disrupting entire industries people get carried away and neglect to protect themselves which maintenance of. So who gets taken in berlin based heartbeat labs pumps millions of euros into medical startups every year it recently provided half a million in seed funding to an Online Service that allows expecting mothers to talk to certified midwives. And the fact that we often get entrepreneur is presenting us with their idea who believe so passionately in that idea or product or whatever it is that they tend to gloss over things not necessarily intentionally and so we have to look very carefully to see if theyve talked something up or if theyre genuinely telling it like it is so far weve never dealt with anyone whos. Why. The company examines all the available data on the proposed Business Plan and compiles forecasts on revenue and growth but theres no cast iron protection against fraud. In the following for something fraudulent can easily happen because supporting a startup requires faith you can try to control everything with contract supervisory boards and reports but startup founders have plenty of scope for covering their tracks its a case like around last could happen in germany maybe not on the same scale with such high financial stakes but theres no question it could happen. As it should. Take next dynamics the brooklyn based startup says its launching a multimeter tiriel and Electronics Desktop three d. Printer but the team has never actually produced a fully functional working model in the last six months the company has dropped off the radar the startup tried to raise half a Million Euros through crowd funding in the end its founders failed to reach that target because investors didnt believe theyd be able to make what they claim and. Do crowd funding platforms make it easier to fool investors german platform start next has facilitated fifty five Million Euros of start up funding from small and micro investors this entrepreneur is asking for fifty thousand euros to launch a beer truck that can be rented out anyone can sign up and float their idea all they need to do is get their name and details. Just across the point is that the crowd is active in social media exchanging information and asking questions and if a project initiator doesnt provide convincing answers then its not going to work all faking something is complicated because the crowd will always identify it as such a crock as here in germany i dont know of any fraudulent projects that lead to a. Payoff of a kind so now its time for her as micro finding out what you often see with crowdfunding is that a business promotes what it ultimately wants to sell not something in the early stages but an idealized finished product if a lot can go wrong on the way that whats being sold is a vision and that can lead to false expectations investors might end up feeling duped if an idea was sold to them as bigger than it actually turned out to be or costs and. In the middle district of her lead the country start up fraud is still a rare occurrence here in germany investors tend to do their homework meticulously before handing over percent. I maybe true of german start ups but what about the countries traditional key industry the automobile sector it seems that mistrust is very much in order there for years german carmakers have been violating Environmental Standards and lying about it diesel gate thats the scandal of broken twenty fifteen over how folks back manipulated emissions levels with Cheating Software and its not going away. They hit a v. W. Subsidiary audi was recently detained for questioning dima boss was summoned to the transport ministry about Illegal Software and mis eightys vehicles and officials hit v. W. With another billion euro fine but although regulators have lost trust in Company Bosses weirdly customers dont seem to mind the twenty seventeen you posted the highest sales figures in its history. So what role does trust and mistrust play in business my colleague marty on who met with an expert. A lunch date with an economics professor as a topic trust it plays a role in so many aspects of life that septimus what does what we doing here got to do with trust. Well i ordered because i was relying on the fact that you would pick up the bill. You are arent you so i didnt use the cheapest thing on the menu at all of course the Restaurant Owner trusted us to pay he invested his time in preparing this and is relying on getting his money afterwards. The sixty of course he gets his money by ordering weve entered into a contract with a restaurateur. When do we decide to buy and when do we will kuwait trade is based on trust by israel i am guessing a product of a certain quality and that their Business Partner is trustworthy good faith is often involved on the part of the brian or the seller someone has to take a risk. If i pay in advance so im relying on the person sending me something but i want to get something thats more valuable to me than my money if the transaction is successful ill benefit in principle thats an act of faith at all. But sometimes the spending gets thrown into the works look at the ongoing diesel gate scandal in the german also industry its been one lie after another companies have systematically cheated their customers whose cars have dramatically dropped in value so its the classic tactic most of the big scandals actually occur not because of what actually happened but because people try to cover it up at admit to as little as possible. Five years ago most people trusted the car industry but the lies by Company Bosses make trust levels plummet not surprising says dont get online at scotlands wedding or doesnt enough that trustworthy people are always try. And if i act badly once ive revealed im not if that happens you probably shouldnt trust this person or this institution anymore if at all trust is a must if economies are to flourish do we generally trust the people around us around forty five percent of germans say they do. According to one survey the swedes chinese and australians have the highest levels of trust in others and they have healthy economies. There is quite a close correlation between how well countries do with these trust ratings and their Economic Growth rates more a number of other social indicators. The same is true vice versa if theres a lack of trust about whether contracts will be honored that impacts on business things for Companies Get complicated and expensive. If we dont have a culture of trust then things have to be managed very closely and then all of these different contracts and legal procedures are very dear or we have to hire the mafia to enforce those contracts that gets very expensive and doesnt really work very well and that means trust is a good lubricant for business and society on the whole. And for International Business relations to heads of state to rely on the fact that agreements they make a binding in the future but what happens if not everyones on the same page Transatlantic Relations have been strained by the abrupt turnaround in u. S. Trade policy how trustworthy is the u. S. President its a question that preoccupied economics professor. Doesnt really understand this logic that you also aim to appear trustworthy in the future. In my opinion he sees the world rather myopic. He acts in the moment he only does something if theres something in it for him he doesnt say. Ill let the germans have a few cardioids because i need them next year to negotiate a new deal with iran because the germans have a closer relationship with iran. Ok ive got it trust is good for business thats why people are so concerned with appearing trustworthy but how many people really merit to intrust and nine Months Research shows that when it comes to financial matters not many though it depends on the science of the temptation. How much is at stake if a lot of money is involved then of course more people are likely to its gone its always a question of how much damage do i do to the other party whats the cost benefit ratio. At the end of the day id say maybe one in three people were trustworthy. Seriously only one in three people is really trustworthy when it comes to financial matters perhaps its better not to think about this too much otherwise we might get paranoid and doing business would become impossible. And you could trust me i mean using its my job to give you biased free news and information its not like weve signed a contract but my reputation is at stake and that of my employer d w if you dont trust somebody to do whats been agreed upon thats when a contract does come into play its a kind of insurance even then people often wriggle out of a deal but at least there are sanctions contracts are a type of back up when trust is lacking theyve been around for thousands of years. A contract is binding and agreements must be kept right. On texts like the bible make reference to contracts abraham had an agreement with king. That allowed the former to live in his kingdom and make use of a well. In return abraham would give the king sheep and cattle. Back then as now a contract required that at least two parties actually agree to it that means the parties to the contract have to agree to accept its terms. When both sides stand to profit on the deal is made of the contract is sealed five are with an oath in writing with a handshake. From a legal point of view in many countries these methods are equally binding even today cars and horses are often sold with a handshake that requires a lot of trust a prerequisite for any contract regardless of what it relates to. Whether its a contract for a house a tenancy agreement a contract a lease repair contract or a marriage contract trust and confidence are crucial. The principle that agreements must be kept packed under in latin is based on the notion that honest people will do the right thing and abide by a contract even if it leads to negative consequences in the future. That applies to nations as well. Governments arent supposed to break International Contracts by means of National Legislation thats the principle of customary international law. Nevertheless contracts are often broken parties in breach of contract can end up in court a judge can then force them to fulfill its terms or pay a penalty. Other consequences could be dismissal from a job or being shut out of future deals in the criminal underworld. A breach of contract can mean more than a fine. People who go back on a promise made to the mafia might find themselves wearing cement overshoes corners of honor among thieves but even organized crime agreements must be kept. There some agreements that go unspoken yet are as solemn and binding as belts and god is complex regarding tradition and continuity talking about god isnt tradition its time for our very own fashionista get with us hes going to show us a chap with an impeccable sense of style. If you think that your next career move is long overdue let me introduce you to one of my personal style icons is a good role model. A man whos been waiting for the job he really wants all his life. He is without a doubt the worlds most patient man. The prince of wales is turning seventy this november the heir apparent to the british throne has been preparing for his major career move for decades and hes been dressing the part. Especially admire his wavering support for the double breasted suit. In one it had disappeared completely for the world of gentleman that he stuck to it. More than that hes made it his personal style statement secondly he wouldnt be seen dead with out of pocket. Experts hes got a collection of more than five thousand actually are made about Prince Charles understood early on that in his line of work appearance of the utmost importance regrettably some of his colleagues in the business of Crown Princess havent quite grasped that concept yes it. Is a few lessons to be learned here from the prince of wales avoid to be patient and most importantly you dont dress for the job you have your dress for the job you want. I guess i should get out of trust and mistrust in the Business World just to be with us next week. Full. Im going to. Move. Into the conflict zone confronting the powerful cofounders f. B. I. Director james comey was always pretty well known in the window and charm fired him last year. For good measure of being this week hes my guest here in by the way hes promoting a book even as he faces new child abuse and insubordination so whats the truth conflicts sushma talks. Molo. Could the asylum dispute spell the end for chancellor america the government of german chancellor Angela Merkel could fall apart but not because her enemies are getting stronger can she resolve the conflict with sister party c. S. U. And the discord within the e. U. Consultations are taking place in berlin on the first day not all explain herself to parliament a deadline has been set for sunday. And again this week until a new news. If you like to be our fighters want to start families to become farmers or engineers every one of them has a plan that didnt simply assume. Nothing is just the children who have always been the way and thats you and those that will follow are part of a new kind of. They could be the future of. Granting opportunities for global news that matters d. W. Made for mines. Bursts mob home is of species. A home worth saving and. Yet those are big changes and most start with small steps. Little indios tell stories of could induce people into innovative projects around the world. But to use the term good news to manage solutions and resource titian. Interest has come to teaching the next generation doesnt want to touch him. Using only channels available to stop people trying to get attention and more determined to build something new for the next generation the idea is the environment series of global three thousand on t. W. And all mine. This is d. W. News live from berlin the unthinkable has happened to the shock of germany fans there waiting for dawn chance team germany crashed out of the twenty eight Team Tournament at the end of the group stage its germanys worst of the world cup of form and ever and germany supporters along the berwyn fan mile an hour around the country are devastated