wisconsin or iowa or colorado or new mexico or nevada and he's president of the united states. >> and i think that's where we get into sort of these niche demographics and some of the issues. you've got -- again, if he cannot -- i agree with karl, he can win with 31% of the latino vote, hispanic vote, but it's tough to win those three -- colorado, those states out in the west with that dinkind of a number. he can win the presidency because of -- >> let me say one other thing. two people have problems with latinos -- mitt romney and barack obama. if you look at the decline in the latino support for approval of the president, it is at or above the national average for decline and has been consistently so. why? i've got a little bit of a hint in it in some american cross-roads focus groups recently in which we said let's get latino voters whose principal language in the home is spanish. and so you're not talking -- and people who are sort of not partisans. the swing voter. you're not talking about people who really are clued into a lot of american politics. they don't participate. there are all kinds of barriers and attitudes that cause them to be -- they would not be here in this room this morning voluntarily. and yet -- and those were the attitudes. the economy bad, i'm worried about my jb, everything's getting expensive. things that would not be i'm enthusiastic about voting for obama. but unglued from politics except on one issue. immigration. he told us he would have comprehensive immigration '08. he had complete control. they knew he was in control of the senate, controlled the house for two years, could have gotten it done. they knew he promise the to put forward a bill. me knew he had never put forward a bill. you misled us. this is just politics for you. and the president has a real credibility problem among this group that ought to be the group that if the immigration issue's going to cut you have to have it be not only lack of enthusiasm for romney, you have to have it lots of enthusiasm for obama and it's not there. >> romney has backed himself into a corner on immigration during the primaries. the administration's going to come out and say are you for dream act or not for the dream act? >> get your own version of the dream act a la marco rubio. >> this is the bill that allows if you've served in the air forces or have gone to college you can get on the path to citizenship. >> look, the republican -- we've had bruising primaries on both sides. we had it last time with -- >> we had a bruising primary on the democratic side. this time around the guy who's the inmate in the federal prison in beaumont gets 30% of the vote yesterday in the west virginia democratic primary and carries three counties in west virginia. we've got a bruising primate -- federal inmate 1541. i don't know who the hell the guy is but -- >> it's going to be top of the news. is what i'm saying is that we had -- a bruising primary did cause some damage to the romney/gop brand in the two places that clearly happened with latinos, he had backed himself into a corner, with immigration. and with women because i think santorum and others put so much on contraception and abortion and some of the social issues. that doesn't mean romney can't heal that. i'm just saying that's one of the big challenges that he has to do to have a shot at opening up the electoral thing in the way that you're talking about. >> i agree with you about latinos. i think it did do some damage. i'm not sure i necessarily agree with you about women. i think it was mostly lost opportunity. every time they talked about contraception and religious liberty and so forth was time they couldn't spend talking about the economy. but i like how we fixate on the gap that romney has among women. obama has a bigger gap among men. so we again have two guys who both have a gender issue problem. obama cannot close it with men. romney cannot close it with women. the interesting thing is the issues that drive both of them are issues that are going to work to the president's disadvantage as long as romney figures it out, and that is the economy, jobs, and growth. >> and also -- first of all, i don't disagree with they boeing -- how do they -- first of all, if everything stays the same, obama wins. >> gallup 44, 47 romney. if is if it stays the way it is obama loses -- >> we're talking electoral college -- >> no, please. i've been in one of those elections where there was a difference between the electoral college and the popular vote but it was 500,000 votes out of millions upon millions. it was not 3%. tough a 3% deficit in the polls you're going to lose the electoral college, particularly if you're 47-45 in a poll of 12 states that you carried last time around, 54.3 to 45.7. please. >> i'm sorry it took us off there. because what i was trying -- no, no, no. because those are all good points. but the place i was trying to get to was the thing i think that really does matter and it generally hasn't sometime in the past but this time it does is what does romney do in terms of his vice presidential pick because again, as you're talking about ohio and florida does he -- i think there's a reason portman and rubio and i guess to a lesser extent jeb bush who i don't -- i actually think would be a great pick, and i don't mean that facetiously or as a partisan. i really do think he'd be a great pick but i don't think that will happen. romney's got some opportunity here to knock down -- or to give himself real play in one or two of those states. and i think that's going to have -- that could have some impact because of what we're talking about. if he can win. i agree with karl, if he can win the three that have traditionally gone republican, indiana, virginia, north carolina, and so we both agree virginia's really -- north carolina to a lesser extent but virginia really could be a dogfight and could go either way, then he's got to win florida and ohio. he has to win both those states. he really does. romney does. that's why i think this vice presidential pick and how he goes is going to -- could impact that. >> when was the last time a vice presidential pick -- >> even carried his on state. i know. >> 1960. brilliant column in the "wall street journal" last week i think on this very topic. >> and if you believe robert caro's new book he carried the state because he stole it. but separate question. >> well, what else is new? please. >> as a texas practitioner -- >> 48 votes in the '48 primary you think that was an actual majority? forget it. duval county. jim hogg. >> other than 1960. >> and rahm emanuel's running chicago. >> we'll give you chicago. >> when did a vice presidential candidate really make a difference and carry a state, joe? >> well, i think that is -- i'm saying i think that's going into their thinking. it's clearly look at who they're looking at. and -- >> it could -- and i was the one that's skeptical of this. all the data show that the average vice presidential candidate has a less than half a point impact on the national vote and generally a 2% increase in the vote in their home state. know, but the point is if you take barack obama's vote total and drop it two and raise mitt romney's vote total two in florida, then we have a 2.8% victory for mitt romney. so it could be the first time since 1960 that it becomes dispositive. if wisconsin is wisconsin of 2000 and 2004 and you put a paul ryan on the ticket, bush loses the state by 5,000 votes in 2000 and half a percent in 2004. if wisconsin is like that and you add paul ryan in, we get two points, then wisconsin and 11 electoral votes are in there. but look, most of the time it doesn't make an impact. this is your trivia question of the day. in the last 50 years, since 1960, what vice presidential candidate not once but twice moved more of his vote in his home state? the expected two-party vote. who's the vice presidential candidate who increased the vote total in his state by reaching across party lines and getting people, independents and people of the opposite party to support the ticket? who's the record holder? dick cheney, wyoming. 11-point increase in 2000 and -- >> that was so obvious. >> and a 7% increase in 2004. which is -- so it shows his cross-cutting, his ability to reach across party lines in wyoming. and of course it had no impact on the election. >> but to me karl's point, had gore picked bill nelson, senator florida, would that have made it -- because the election was so close. see, that's what i'm -- the reason the vp hasn't mattered in most of these elections is because the race is mostly -- walter mondale. would it hell have mreally have who he picked for vp? this one actually could be so tight in some of these big -- >> so your choice would be to go -- for romney your advice would be to go for someone like a portman or a rubio who can help you with a state. how about ryan, wisconsin? good choice? >> oh, man. you've got to be doubling down on a lot of issues to do that. it's going to be tough -- because of some of those -- >> i think it depends what happens on june 5th. if walker wins by a good plarnlgin, four, five, six points, then wisconsin's in play. if he ekes out a narrow victory but loses, 51.5, 49.5, then it probably means wisconsin is not in play. because it means the $70 million is going to be spent in the wisconsin gubernatorial recall and no election campaign is going to spend $7 million to get a bunch of recalcitrant northwestern norwegians to elect him. >> that's the minnesota electorate. i'm from wisconsin. >> we're living with a bunch of germans. all right. let's open it up to the audience if we can. i'd like to take some questions. let's go. yes, sir. right there. we have microphones here for you. if you'll -- >> good morning and thank you for a great panel. my name is raphael elias. i work for credit agricole but i'm also a member of governor romney's national hiss pab hiss committee. and win of the things i couldn't agree more with mr. rove is president obama enjoys a compliant media like no one i've ever seen. we can see that bit way this statement from one of the republican liaiseons who's the director of hispanic outreach at the rnc and nothing more, about governor romney's immigration policy. he has one and he has one that is probably better than anything that obama has put out because he doesn't only focus on the people that are here illegally. he wants to bring in the best and the brightest. and you can see everything that he's proposing in his website. but what is important for the media to focus on is that latinos are going to be won over by the fact, the fact that nobody has repodeported more pe in history than obama. the fact that unemployment is higher amonday hiss pan ukz than among any other group, demographic group in the u.s. and the fact that hispanic children are at the highest level of poverty also in the history of the united states. 67% of latinos don't know that. so i think the challenge is not how to bring them over through an immigration reform policy or dialogue but just macing sure that the community, the latino community knows these facts and understands the failure of president obama. >> look, i agree with you that there's a lot of issues he's got. but also these comments about self-deportation for example have hugh nation, but the comments about self deportation indicated to some in the latino community that he does not have respect for them. you want to see some hard asses on immigration you go to south texas and talk to farm owners and ranch owners and the hispanic community. they are the first to feel its adverse effects. ranches are being trampled upon. cartels are shooting at them. they are competing for jobs. their neighborhoods are at risk. there are reasons they are hard asses on them. but they want to know that there is respect for the community and recognition that this is not all a mexican problem. half of the people are here illegally. came here from gatwick or hong kong, nigeria, on a veisa and overstayed it. the idea that the illegals from central and south america are shiftless, untrust worthy criminal elements, which is where a lot of the republican rhetoric sometimes gets damn close to saying, is a real problem. >> thank you. >> yes, sir? right over there. okay. well, yeah, well get behind you, thanks. >> ken bramawitz. president obama is attacking romney on personal and professional issues. on the other hand, romney is attacking obama on the issues but not obama as a person. do you think that's a mistake? do you think romney should equally go after obama as a person, just as obama comes after romney as a person, to better acquaint the american population that he's who he is, european socialist and doesn't think like an american? do you think that should be brought out in the campaign? >> no. >> there's an -- there's an advantage to romney keeping it where he's got it, which is to use the own statements, promises, pledges and actions in order to paint a picture of him. the president makes a huge mistake going after romney in the way that he has. let me give you an example. the one-year anniversary of osama bin laden. what would have happened if the president said, you know what, let's not make this about me. let me get on a chopper or get in a motor cade, go out to the cia, and we will have to have the camera shot outside but i'm going to go in, in a private meeting with him, tell the cia how proud i am of them, what they've done, and follow the threads of evidence for years in toward find him. and i want it thank them, stand in line, shake the hand of everybody can i for three or four hours, and just be there and they'll them, it's about them. i'm going to get on the chopper, fly down to virginia beach, and meet with the families of s.e.a.l. team six, and again kwb no cameras present. i will hug the wives, tell the children they have every reason to be proud of their fathers for having done what they did. then i'm going to get back in the chopper, go to the white house and keep my mouth shut. by making it about them and making it less, it would have been more and big. instead he has to engage in the power tech nicks and then have a web campaign ad and put bill clinton in there in order to say that damage, if this mission had gone ban and the guys were killed or captures, that the political fall out for the president bo wo have been horrific. what about the men and women of s.e.a.l. team six? how difficult would it be for them? how bad was it that he then goes and says, well mitt romney would have made the same decision. i think is supremely ironic that the attack was made on a sunday morning talk program by joe biden, who at the time, the leaks that they had about their discussions about whether or not to launch the attack had biden saying, no, no, no. we should do this from 40,000 feet from a b-2 bomber and obama rightly overrid him. which is to say, send in the s.e.a.l.s. eye ball them, kill them and make sure we have the right guy. which is the right decision to make. but now it turns out, biden was saying don't do it at all. so we have biden who said at the time, don't do it at all, saying you can't put romney there because by god he wouldn't have done it. well, i think romney had the right answer that said, hell, even jimmy carter would have done it. this is the mistake the president makes and romney better not make the mistake of getting drawn into this knit that the back and forth, your character. the people up for grabs that romney needs to get, like obama. they may be proud that they voted for him and said something good about our country that they did, but they are terribly disappointed with what they did in office and they are this close to concluding he is not up to the job. you will make them defend him if you start calling him names. call him a socialist. attack his character. and it causes people to say, every argument in politics generates a counter argument. that's the counter argument you don't want to say. he said, look, he said unemployment was at 6%. mid session review said in 2012 the united states will have 6% economic growth. the president signed off on that. we are in a battle over student loans. obama is sitting there saying, by god, you know, we can't let that interest rate go up to 6.8%. we got to lower it to 3.4. how dare the republicans not do it. mr. president, you are budget said raise it to 6.8 because you needed money it pay for obamacare. please. so don't do that. >> joe? >> yeah, well i don't know about equal time on that. but, we could be go ahead, joe. we want to hear you. >> we was on a roll. >> the filibuster stuff really works on the republican side. look, i think the real problem is -- and i will just say it, there's been, i think, a ten-year in wall street, corporate american, and the romney campaign, about the anger that a lost americans have about fairness of what has happened to the country over the last few years. and i think -- and i think there's a difference between the president talking about that and fighting for fairness for the middle class and staking that as, an attack on mitt romney because he succeeded. i mean, that is how romney wants to see it. it's not going to work for romney. he's got to talk about it too. and he did at one time, sp t was spectacular victory speech. do you remember what state? >> actually, he first said it in a debate and then i think following michigan. >> right. where he really, i thought, for the first time, really framed fairness in a way that would work for romney. and made a lot of sense. and i haven't heard it since. i don't know why that is. i don't know if there is something in their data. but instead he falls into the trap then, if you start to take umbrance at it, and come back and say, to be talking about fairness, the president is attacking the rich. i think it is just a bad thing for romney to do. he stumbles into it. he had it articulated right. i wish i could remember the language. i don't know if you do, but he -- >> it was that memorable. >> well, he hasn't said it since, that's why you can't remember it. i think it was a big mistake for him to leave that alone. i would go back and restate that speech, i think he finally reiterated it in a way that would work. >> did have you a question? okay. so over here, yes, sir. [ inaudible ] . i think many of us believe that it is important that the government's responsibility to create kegs for economic prosperity. and to me that means three terms. opportunity, velocity, upward mobility. we don't see a tremendous amount of that in this economy today. in a nutshell, could each of you tell me what you think each of the candidate's messages would be regarding prosperity, meaning opportunity, velocity, andup ward mobility? thanks. >> joe, why don't you go first? >>. well i think that obama has -- well, let me do it this way. i believe we are in the mess we're in over 20 or 30 years of administrations. it is not obama. it wasn't george bush. go back clinton, wherever it all started. but a lot of the problems that are ending up today that have to get fixed, in terms of the long-term of the nation, have been built up over time. ailing r and i think obama has been looking at, did save the auto industry, did -- is focused on college tuition and on getting rid of the bush tax cuts that we got to do. and it is again getting down to -- it's about fairness. how do we build prosperity. who pays the price for all that? and a lot of it will have to be painful decisions that have to happen. you see that when paul ryan -- i mean, anybody who comes up with an idea regardless of which party came up with it, the other side automatically knocks it down. and we're not going to get through any of this as a nation without making those tough decision. and i think that both campaigns -- it's going to be really interesting to see if either campaign will address any of this stuff in this race. i'm not going to be a partisan about this and say, yes, we will have this discussion about it because i don't think that's where we will get to. i think it'll be a negative race and we will put off the future until of that election. on both fronts. and i think -- i think romney's done that throughout the primaries and i think it is likely to be the same case now as we move forward in the general. and in the end, somebody's going to, you know -- i think the president will be re-elected. and then hope hopefully this polarized mess we're in -- >> so whoever emerges with a mandate will do something -- >> what i'm saying -- >> that just doesn't seem -- >> if the president put out the perfect plan to move the country forward tomorrow, or paul ryan did, the problem is that the other side. attack it. i just don't see how we get out of it. unless the american people actually see -- i mean, actually somebody puts that out there and the american people swarm to it. which i don't see either. >> i agree, joe, if anybody laid out a plan, the other side would swarm it. but that's because it is today and it is pollute bid three and half years of this president saying, i want, and stiff-arp orm /* arm arming the opposition. remember florida, we didn't come in with the wave of enthusiasm and goodwill that obama came in with. and yet by june of 2001 we passed the bush tax cuts with the senate voting for it and we did that by negotiating with him. when this president came in, he had too many dem krt in the senate house who didn't think they needed to talk it republicans and doesn't do it. i was here with mcconnell and he told me he had gone eight months without being at the house. i was with boehner shortly thereafter and i said mcconnell said it was eight months since you all were at the white house. boehner said, yeah, that's about right. i jaw went slack. i reluctantly believe the only way it get bipartisan in washington is to start again. bush wanted to do it but we had florida. when dick went on meet the press just before bush was inaugurated and russert asked him twice, do you think bush is elected president of the united states, and he wouldn't say, we were in trouble. he was so caught up in the partisanship. so obama had a chance. he blew it. and romney will win if romney has a message that not only has the thematics right, that we need to be a country of growth and opportunity, and put our fiscal house in order and pay attention that our education system is failing too many people. and specifics enough behind it so people can say, i have a handle on what you want to do. i may not agree with it all, but by god, you're willing to tackle it, and i will give you my vote. >> if tax reform, i want it ask you briefly, is tax reform a winning issue for romney if he makes it a real thematic -- a real focus? >> i think so. because look, i think most americans think, look, we got a crazy tax system. the more specific he can be, if he says flatter and simply so you spend less time trying to comply with it and we spend less money trying to comply with it, and he says we have the least tax rate of any industrial country of the world. you don't think they are beating our brains in for goods and services around the world. if he says we a company with a trillion dollars abroad. if you're hewlett-packard and you're in germany and you make a profit, or if you make money here and you take it back it germany, you don't have to pay a tax. we are making it difficult to bring it home and invest it here. if he goes out there and starts talking about it in concrete ways that ordinary people can get b get -- and let me say something else. tax reform, saying i will do something about putting our fiscal house in order and there's tough medicine for us because we have to do it for our kids and grand kids -- >> so the ryan plan is a winner in your view? >> i hate to do it on the basis of focus groups because i hate them. >> you hate them but you rely on them. >> we did so many of them, i'm just washed, just sort of bathed in them. a truck driver in aurora, colorado said we got to put our house in order. we keep spending, we're going to end up like greece and there will be no european union to bail us out. that one of the earliest focus groups we did. i counted 16 of the next 21 focus groups someone spontaneously brought up greece. a woman in -- literally waited tables in columbus, ohio and her husband works in a warehouse. she says we are spending money we don't have. it is causing everything to cost more from gasoline to healthcare to groceries. i'm worried about my mom. i'm even more worried about what we are going to do to our kids.