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Want to warmly welcome you to deloitte and to the book launch for americas new map. My name is roger hill and i have the privilege of serving as the sector for the defense, security and Justice Sector at deloitte. It is my privilege be here today with you all for the book launch for americas map by the esteemed geopolitical strategist and New York Times bestselling author dr. Thomas barnett. Dr. Barnett book analyzes the current landscape and unpacks the complex impacts of Climate Change and demographic dynamics, exploring humanitys collective future in a thought provoking manner. His book and the strategic drivers he identifies is a reminder how interconnected our world and how they are contaminated currents that require our care and action to preserve and advance our nations that is top mind here at deloitte. Our dedication and commitment to National Security runs through the very fabric of our firm. We are proud for our decades Long Partnership with the federal government, including within the defense, security and Justice Sector, the services in different agencies. As the Worlds Largest Global Professional services firm, we know the value of agility in face of National Securitys ever evolving. Recently, the has embarked on some exciting pioneering work that addresses issues related to nearpeer competition, which has become paramount in todays geopolitical context. This is where our partnership with throughline comes in. Weve been working with through line to develop a new global collisions lab. Dr. Barnetts book and it us thinking about how we should navigate these Uncharted Waters and to capitalize the opportunities that theyll present in the future. The lab features are new asset which we call the foreign influence risk index, which is a powerful tool that helps clients better understand and address the influence of foreign actors. In closing. Id like to thank you for being here and for sharing passion and commitment to National Security. Now im going to pass it over to Scott Williams whos going to the owner and founder of third line for a few words. Scott, over to you. You. Good evening. So i just have a couple of talking points and well try not to be duplicative. First, i first met dr. Barnett during my navire days in Senior Executive development program. I got to go down to uva, boars head in, and we all know what that was like. And, uh, and tom, as well, as tom friedman were both presenters, the Global Affairs and military strategy segment and i remember his powerpoints i remember his visuals and his law and order teachings and so years later, i had the chance to hook up him. And what were going to see tonight is really the hard work. Tom and our visualization team. And so really glad to be here. Hes been decoding global for 25 years or more. The idea of bringing a lot of this thinking into the world were dealing with today has been really and id just like say, i think back to my navy world and there were really two things that as we started the company, one was the idea of bringing thought leadership into our client spaces and to the partnership with global firms. And so the idea of a partnership with deloitte has been central to the company from the beginning the idea of working together with with tom and what were doing and the book is launching today so, so excited and without further ado, mr. Thomas barnett. So were going to a q a period following the presentation. And if you want to log on at mint. Com through your smartphone, provide that code, you can ask a question and well cultivate those questions and well how we can get through them as much as possible. Following this presentation. So id like to thank deloitte for hosting this event. The collaboration between deloitte and throughline and myself putting these ideas together. Its been nothing less than spectacular for me. I didnt anticipate writing another, but when this offer came through and the opportunity to work with data, visual experts and with illustrators like jim nuttall, who drew most of the illustrations, all of the illustrations, his daughter had a hand, several of them as well, that youre going to see here tonight. It was just too cool too much fun. One of my favorite blurbs so far in the book is from an old colleague of mine. She said its a graphic novel for futurists. And when she sent that to me, she was concerned i would take umbrage at that designation. And i wrote and i said, thats absolutely fantastic because thats really what were going for. Were talking to younger generations. The book is geared for millennials and for gen zs because this is a grand outline for how we can deal with things. Huge structural changes like Climate Change, like demographic between north and south. The south with a 2 billion youth bulge still to be processed the north experiencing or could describe as demographic collapse in several instances, china already and then that global middle class thats arisen in the last 2030 years which is largely centered in the global south. So what im going to argue here is that were heading from basically an east west of world to a north south kind of world. Those are going to be the dominant dynamics. And that all by itself is a big enough change to justify kind of grand strategic thinking. So im going to tell im a father of six. I am deeply invested in the future. Okay. Black lives matter to me. Diy, esg, all that kind of stuff. You know, all very real and important and connects me to the future that these kids are going to inhabit. And i like to point out my two millennials and my four gen zs a lot of the things im going to describe here tonight. Theyve been living in that world for the last 20, 25 years. And i want to explain any of it to them, they have to explain to me on a regular basis, you know, not to use certain terms and not to make certain expressions and not to use certain descriptors. But they dont have to think or process this whatsoever because. Its a very real world to them. And i try to remember them whenever were and doing this kind of thinking, you know, these the people who are going to step forward. What im going to describe here is a zone of turbulence between now and say roughly 2070, 2080, where these three structural changes, Climate Change, demographic collapse and the emergence and the demands of a global middle class are all going to intersect. Any one of those three things would be a big enough structural change to kind of dominate a century. And we got all three going on at the same time. But the notion is, look, beyond todays problems and ask yourself what kind of superpower we want to be in 20, 30, 40, 50 years, because were not going to be the same set up that we have now and go all these tremendous pressures and changes over the next 50 years. So as a thought experiment, id like to start off briefings by just saying, you know, everybody understands agency the concept of end of the season you can sign with another franchise you can move on, you can pick the team you want to be with as a green bay packer shareholders season Ticket Holder just went through that problem with Aaron Rodgers and the new york jets. Okay, so very familiar with this imagine on a global scale one Day Free Agency for nation states, individuals, parts of nation states. You could just im oregon. I want to go with canada instead of the United States. And so im going to sign with the canadians for the next 20 years or Something Like that. So put these five as the five major franchises, china india, eu, the United States and and the question i ask to contemplate is once signings are done, which brands would be bigger whod be turning them away and whod be losing . Maybe so much so that they werent a superpower at the end of that process. I think we need to think along these as we move forward because identity, citizenship, nationality becomes of multiple identities that young people future generations of leaders can adopt can undertake. I think its one of the reasons why patriotism and National Identity are lower. Theyve been in decades really lower than theyve been in our entire history. There is such a Competitive Landscape out there for young people in their identities. If were not offering them the right kind of brand. Okay, you know, when brands in the supermarket to take them off the shelf and historically nation brands get stale, get old, they get taken off the maps. Look, the soviet union was a completely thing right up to the moment when citizenry no longer believed in it and then it evaporated. And that can happen. It can happen to any country in the world. And weve got some experience with that sense of in the last couple of years. So im going to tell a story in six parts. The first one im going to describe is our creation. My argument is the rules we took from how we integrated the united. Thats what we projected upon the world very successfully. So heres a map i love to draw. Heres the state aligned with a country with same gdp, noting the in population size. So indias gdp roughly the size of california, even its 36 times the population. Heres the rest of the map. Youre looking at the freest trade in the world. The Free Movement of money, goods, people around the planet. Youre completely in what you can do inside. This mini globalization. And on that basis, we are the avatar for globalization, the source code. This is 2 billion people, when you add them all up seven times our number which gives you a sense of how good we are doing this, but how it is to subject a country to that kind of opportunity. Because not only a worry creating, say, 25 of the worlds gdp, were creating 5 of the worlds pollution to. Okay, so we have a of an awesomeness to. Im arguing that we basically thought to replicate that around the planet after the second world war. Our goal was to end world wars. If you look at it like that, weve been enormously successful not just ending world wars but triggering the awesome growth of the Global Economy. These last 60, 70 years. So im telling you, were the worlds oldest and most successful multinational republic. Were globalization in many. I like to argue that our identity as americans is the most important identity any us will have. Were going to have all sorts other identities. Green bay packers. Season Ticket Holder. Father six okay, but collectively, individually, what we do as americans alters this planet like nobody else. And thats why identity with the United States is crucial. In my way of thinking, we created system that was built on rules without a ruler. We purposely sought to raise up other countries peacefully. Now that succeeded in doing that rather broadly across the world, were kind of scared by our creation. The frankenstein monster imagery from earlier because its no longer a world that we can shape as much as it shapes us. Its also not a world that resembles white america, the future, globalization is overwhelmingly nonwhite, nonamerican, non european, nonwestern, and that freaks a lot of. Our political systems out because they no longer see future. They recognize themselves in. And thats where youre getting a lot of the Political Polarization we got on in the system. So theres a quick argument. America made a world okay, but that tremendous success come tremendous costs. Okay. We created a global middle class, grew up watching these movies and Catholic Grade School its all have nots. The have nots are only going to get worse. Its all going to be pestilence, going to be famine. Its going to be just disaster upon disaster. I was scared growing up in the late 1960s, early 1970s, by all those educational the truth was something that nobody predicted. The rise of a global majority middle class. Okay, its not the middle class. We got used to in the 1950s or sixties or i will you for the average millennial, theyre closer to that global middle class terms of expectations than. The historical definition of the middle class in the United States. They took the haircut, frankly, for the profligacy of the boomers and the gen xers far. But the reduction of poverty, the growth, the global middle class, the greatest in Human History in, our country engineered it. But with that came tremendous outcome in terms of the environment, the span that we draw here and across the middle, we call it in the book middle earth, it stretches from the equator, 30 Degrees North and 30 degrees south. More than half of humanity. The bulk future middle class consumer. And 3 to 5 billion people. Were going to be subjected to temperature ranges and precipitation ranges historically associated with the saharan desert, which is not densely populated, which has very governments, because its a tough place live. If youre going to put many people under stress in that part of the world, youre going to trigger big time change on that basis. Theres no doubt when add up all the things weve done to the planet, weve altered the atmosphere, putting a trillion tons of carbon into the atmosphere, a trillion tons is roughly equal to the weight of every on earth. Today thats how much weve shoved into air in terms of the land weve reformatted three quarters of the land outside of antarctica in terms the water weve acidified, oceans weve altered the level of the oceans to a degree never before recorded in Human History and were living through the sixth great mass in this planets history overwhelmingly caused by Climate Change, overwhelmingly engineered by the United States. Okay, im not arguing against making the world a middle class centric possible. Im not arguing against that at all. Im just saying with tremendous effort, that tremendous comes, tremendous cost or what scientists identify now as the anthropocene, this notion of the human epic. When roosevelt and his wise men set in motion that International Trade order after the second world war, they did not imagine that they were going to create a new geological age. But thats power that weve unleashed. Third point north south integration alluded to it earlier. This alone is a huge change. But think back to your Jared Diamond guns, germs and steel. The why part of the world ruled the tall parts. Now its better to be tall than wide because tall means you two options as climates shift so middle earth as we describe it experience that tremendous difficulty. We saw some of this previewed us during the summer from hell last year temperature ranges, precipitation and ranges, water usage is shortages where you got the city of phenix basically saying its too dangerous to go outside and were going to have to curtail future development. Sun valley as a response, we see Insurance Companies pulling out of florida and california yet so some of these things are coming to our mailbox in terms of bills and it gets harder and harder to deny it. But we want to focus our attention, this middle earth band, because thats to be put under such stress that either we start thinking about, we collectively deal with that stress or people are going to be put on the move. Big time. What happens with Climate Change is essentially to australia is worth of livable arable land in the lower latitudes goes away no longer arable or livable to is worth arable livable land appears in the northern quarter. I call this the greatest real estate transaction in Human History. No money changes hands. Guess which side is unhappy . That transaction. Okay, so if were going to have this kind of benefit, this kind of change, we got, adjust to it because been put on the move species all over the world are moving up elevation and toward the poles climate velocity. My favorite black swan event right now i just saw this couple of days ago university of wisconsinmadison. I went to college, has this fun tradition getting about a thousand pink flamingos and sticking them in the ground in the main quad because its such a joke. Pink flamingos in wisconsin with our harsh winter. Okay, pink forms showed up in Port Washington about an hours drive south of green bay. The famous frozen tundra. Okay, so my black swan is actually a pink flame event thats telling how nature is responding. And we either deal with that reality or were going to find ourselves building a wall that. Cant possibly keep that climate velocity that everybody is going to be put on the move with it from entering our borders out of desperation. Thats Climate Change. Now lets talk demographics where the disparity between the south and the north is profound. Still, a youth bulge of about 2 billion in the south, weve got demographic collapse starting to occur across. The north, the balancing act is hard like to distinguish between what happens in a demographic transition and how allows your economy to connect to the Global Economy. Because its a very story. And what im describing here is basically how you get connected. The golden ticket, lets say, to take your economy and put it in global value chains if youre lucky and you achieve a Demographic Dividend by first lowering the death rate 0 to 5 age range, eventually people start having fewer babies. But theres a lag between discovery and that action. And in that lag, theres an artificially created larger than average. Okay, we had one right after the second world war. It was called the baby boom. Okay thats welcomed. Then grew up into teenagers. Not so welcome. We fear the crying. We fear the revolution. Its 1960s america. Then the age into the workplace and you got your ticket to the Global Economy. Lots of workers relative to dependents. The problem is youve got much time to cash that in before you start stockpiling people. And this is happening across the world. My point in raising this is every model that weve seen since World War Two has been driven fundamentally by a Demographic Dividend. It was United States, then it was japan until it was the chinese. Now were talking about the hindu miracle because their Demographic Dividend, about 500 million workers, is online next 10 to 15 years. So understanding march is crucial. Understanding how globalization unfolds and how we need to try to make that unfolding, continue to succeed. My point with the global middle class throughline for is that the global middle class represents the target superpower brand competition in this century. Its not getting access to the workers. Its getting access to all those consumers. The middle class is largely in that global south of, that middle earth. What does the middle class want . The middle class, unlike the poor who want protection from their of the rich, who quite frankly, protection from the poor. The middle class wants the thing to deliver, which is protection from the future. They have a good life they want to preserve it. They want that is the superpower brand competition going on as that global middle thickens. That global middle class is over. Theyre going to be, as i noted earlier, asian. So south asia, east as the primary sources, the to get access to this population that has historically grown up with unprocessed unpackaged unbranded goods. And now were moving branded packaged processed goods. We know, for example, from when buy your first car, make your first president ial vote when you collect yourself enough to focus on a brand, you tend to stick with that brand. Often for the rest of your life. With all that 2 to 3 billion new consumers coming over the next 20, 30 years, thats what chinas as much interested in capturing as the resources and supply chains, because having access to that middle class making happy is going to define the rule sets that govern globalization. This century. The eu has a model, i argue in the book. Its a model they are integrating Eastern Europe because it them money right off theyre doing that to deal with future problems and taking those future problems and making go away so that when the russians finally get around to getting mad and nasty again theyre fighting it in ukraine instead of germany. Okay thats a tremendous Strategic Vision i would argue. And the best a soft power execution anywhere in the world. We know what the russian model it goes back to the old czarist days. Its basically take hostages along the border and theyve created a lot of these little fake oboes and republics basically in grabbing russians who they encourage to live in those places as minorities. In the past so that they can capture the larger entity that surrounds that enclave. And then we got the chinese with the belt and road, the connect force. They come in, connect, you up, and then theyre eager to connect. You also, 5g networks with all the backdoors they build into all their Different Networks systems, they allow you to surveil your society and they allow themselves to surveil your society through the networks theyve created and we cant forget the indians because theyre going to be the next new global power player in terms of cheap labor with their demographic coming online, which is id like to argue, even though were kind of on china inside the belt line here, that the real superpower competition or relationship of the 21st century doesnt involve us. It involves the chinese and the indians and a very careful relationship chip that has to develop as this guy moves up the production chain and starts having to invest and integrate the Indian Economy into those value. Much complex even than what we did. Japan in terms of integrating chinese in years and past. Meanwhile i would argue the United States does not recognize in this future whatsoever. We are fixated primarily through our boomer Leadership Class with trying to recreate the idyllic youth that we had in the 1950s. In the 1960s, were still relitigating all these social issues because the boomers to declare war on all sorts of stuff, love to have fights drag out and tooth knocking kind of fights and honestly, its its been a real problem for us in terms of our image abroad and in terms of our National Security leadership and vision to be so overwhelmed by the kind of culture wars that were engaging in. This is my favorite drawing the book. Its the idea the chinese are playing go the russians like to play chess and the americans like to play poker. We like showdowns. Were doing that right now in ukraine. Okay. The russians, they have no problem wasting after after. Theyre doing that in ukraine. Meanwhile, the are laying down their markers all the planet stone by stone by stone playing go and thats a real problem the fact that we dont recognize the same competence and that theyre engaging in. So my tendency to say the United States focuses on the gun, you know, we see a problem. We send take care of that problem. Our list of we got them bad actors, its really long. Okay, our list of countries we fixed by getting that not so long okay so we think kill the bad guy create the environment they think create secure environment prevent the bad from arising. Very different top down versus bottom. What china does with this coming into your country, not just doing the connectivity with infrastructure but do it in terms of 5g, their ultimate goal is to get you the citizen of this country. In addition, what theyre pioneering inside of china to basically police yourself, the social Credit System you get to to a government protest, antigovernment protest, your score goes down. You dont a progovernment posting online your score goes down you end friendships with antisocial people youre goes up okay pretty soon they dont have to act your minder because youve got many qs your self policing yourself okay from perspective this is scary this is orwellian from the chinese its the enforcement of social. Im telling you what theyre trying to do basically commoditize things like prosperity, security, you know, community that of stuff by saying that, in effect, if you get it from the chinese, its no different really than. If you get it from the United States, its basically the same package. Were just less about it. Were less crazy and less unpredictable in our. And i will tell you, for a global middle class thats arisen around the world, this is a pretty good package, in large part because, we dont offer an alternative to it. What we offer are sanctions. So in a future where, individuals can make up own identities. They can have all sorts identities. Were in a battle to put out the best package, best brand, the best sort of connective entity. We want them to want to join the United States in larger packages, in larger unions, because if theyre not joining us, theyre joining somebody else, this battle will argue overwhelmingly fought in cyberspace. So lets wrapping it up through line five. Why were going to win competition if the future is all about northsouth integration. My argument is were the best positioned for this by far. Border change events since 1914, very in the west in terms military superpower, dumb, we are far and away biggest player in the system in terms of resource advantages. We super advantaged in in south and north america compared to the vulnerability in asia that translates to an ability to export left over food theres what you grow. Theres what you eat. Theres what import and theres whats left to export. We are basically the saudi arabia of grain. The west feeds the rest hugely important forward. And then in terms of energy were basically selfsufficient so huge resource advantages in terms of reshoring, near shoring chains. I will tell you the europeans far more integrated as is than the United States. Three decades of nafta and our trade with latin america is almost nonexistent. And then we have a drug war, which is not exactly integration. And then im going to a more controversial argument here. I tell you, on the basis of our export, its on the receiving end of, european colonialization. We been mixing the major races around, the world in the western hemisphere for half a millennia. We are like the humans in the war of the if the future is all about integration, weve earned the to be good at that because been doing it longer than anybody else else. In terms of we have four languages covers about 90 in terms of religious diversity. Its absolutely amazing we are 80 . Chris, in the west, 60 catholic. You got muslim versus christian in the middle, you got a panoply of complexity in east asia. When we look north because things are heading north, we lock we have the canadians who are the best and they got the russians frankly are the worst. But think about the arctic watch that because is going to buy its seat on the Arctic Council soon enough. Id like to remind we were smart and bought ours in 1867, which was really far sighted in terms of age disparities, much bigger gaps. The other of the world, much more age appropriate. Our part of the world just had enough to keep our age down as we get large immigration in terms of democracy versus autocracy its amazing how uniform we are in the western hemisphere in terms handling rivalries, superpower relationships, we dont have to deal with indias rise like does we dont have to deal with russias fall like the eu does and then finally and we have a whole section in the book on this sort of my love letter to america. There are wonderful things about our culture. We are admired if the came down tomorrow, wed have a lot citizenry. But dont want you to think along the lines of. Lets let them all in. Im not going to make the argument Matthew Iglesias made with 1 billion americans, lets increase fertility. I dont believe you can do that. I think its a scary process when you try. And i dont think we want a billion people crammed into our country. But when i talk the relationship hemisphere quickly, id like to extend the us, id like to offer membership tracks to countries because when i look at a honduras or costa rica in, the future, i see nothing in this future says, you know what, guys, youre your own. This is going to work out. Instead i see them reaching for that kind of connectivity. Okay. We started as 13 colonies. Were at 50 member states, 574 sovereign, tribal, 14 territories, and a federal district. We have tiered citizenship, tiered membership, tiered everything. We have a history of doing this. If the europeans can do it, we can do it as well for the same reason europe went into Eastern Europe to deal with problems. Im making a similar argument in terms of rethinking our relationship with latin america. Last point this is where you get of brutally realistic with what can actually do as a nation. Are you under the impression the us is going to out integrate china, east asia . Okay we try. We offered defense pacts, we offer submarine to the australians. I dont think any of its going matter. Can we out integrate the and europe deal with russia more are better than they are now we could certainly help we could be the arsenal democracy. They got their act together and large Current European Commission van der and she says basically a Geopolitical Union and shes right thats how theyve matured. Do you think were going back to the middle east and taken over again in our lifetimes when what our failures there did was activate all the kingpins to step in big, including the chinese and the indians. Do you think were going to make the difference terms of integration through subsaharan . I dont think so i think the gulf monarchies, i think the indians i think the europeans, i think the chinese are going to do that. The one part of the world where it makes sense for us to integrate, where we have all the advantages, all the incentive is our own neck of the woods. But that is a draft a rethink about how we with latin america, the caribbean and with the canadians, its very but if you want to build a better future, if you want something that gen zs and millennials going to find worth constructing. Im going to tell you another five or six decades of cold war with china. Theyre not interested theyre not interested in the culture wars were waging. They are deeply interested in Climate Change, getting ready for it and getting ready for it, in my mind, is thinking northsouth in terms of integration. So ill be happy to take your questions. Dr. Brennan thank you so much for those remarks. To all of those of you in the audience, you can see the code there to submit your questions through mint. Com. And we do have one to get us started. Dr. Barnett, earlier this year, april, india became the worlds most populous country. How you foresee this impacting the Global Economy and the players in the globalization throughline . Yeah. As i mentioned in the brief, you know how you get to the top typically tied into how well you explore meet your Demographic Dividend is coming online big. Okay. In terms of a vast pool about half a billion workers now they are still a very agriculturally centric workforce. About 45 of workers in india deal in the agriculture world trade. So how they that transition is going require i would argue lots of Foreign Direct Investment. Weve seen their Foreign Direct Investment take off dramatically. They have to get a lot of that i would argue from the biggest saver in the system the last three decades. The chinese. The chinese are incentivized to make sure that that demographic gets exploited. But theres such a rivalries. Relationship between the two that is going to be the most delicate relationship to manage over the next 3 to 4 or five decades. But the clock is ticking. The chinese know theyre on a path towards depopulation. And if theyre not trading up in terms of moving up the chain, the value chain and slotting in their replacement, then theyre not succeeding. So we need this relationship to work. And i think the sign that india just surpassed the on that scale really tells us that the clock is ticking and you i beg us to kind put aside our usual selfcentered ness and not believe this is all about us versus, the chinese, and really recognize the fate that lies ahead, which we need india to integrate in a big way. We need to succeed if they do the Global Economy that much greater. The fact that theyre going to experience tremendous amounts of stress in terms of climate only suggests that another big engine in terms of Global Economic growth is going to be green transition. Next question question. Yes, sir. You have written this book with an eye on the next of leaders, namely the millennials, the gen zs and the alphas. Whats your most fervent hope or advice for them. My most fervent hope. I think theyre already starting to express, you know, the gratitude bergs of the world. Those montana teenagers that sued over the environmental clause in the state constitution. I mean, theyre mad as hell about the lack of interest among the the elite america right now that that ruling. Congress is about 85 . I think boomers and gen xers. Neither of them seem very interested in this process and were going to get this kind of review on the book all the ive already got a couple of them where you get a 69 year old white guy basically saying, hey, im not going to live in this. I dont really care. Okay. And all i can say to that is, you know theres the door. Boomer and thank you for your contribution to us National Security. Because the people who are going to get stuck with it are my two millennials and my four gen zs and waiting and theyre getting more agitated. We saw it with the republican president ial debate. The first one, first question. They had a young, you know, millennial. What do you about . And he got up and he held a to his mouth and he said, Climate Change, what do you got . And all eight or nine candidates basically stared their shoes and ramaswamy yelled out, hoax. And that was the response. You know, i dont credit the democrats really all that much more than. I blame the republicans on that one. I think both sides, you know, as much as i like what biden has done in terms of trying to deal with Climate Change in terms prioritize spending, we nowhere near the thinking the action that we need to be on. And if we were this would be a presidency that weve been waiting for for quite some time. Weve been presidency over and over and over again. Im going to care more about latin america. Im going to fix our relationship with our neighbors. Were going to have a better time in the here in hemisphere. That hasnt happened. It gets promise every election cycle. And what i would tell them to do is just break the mold where you can. And the quickest way to break the mold on this, and i would argue is the 51st state. However, its a puerto would be the 30th largest by population state. D. C. Certainly qualify. There are other packages we could together. Weve done noncontiguous before hawaii and alaska. Okay. Weve done weve bought stuff just plain out. Okay. Anything would break. The mold would raise the question if they can get in. Who else is possible . Where else . We have this discussion. To me, this would be the ultimate trump card, no pun offering an exception track. Just like the europeans do. So that when any of those countries are dealing with outside superpowers, they can always say, you know what, i got of this outstanding offer from the United States . Itll take five or ten years. Its a hell a journey. But if thats youre offering, maybe i should go with the americans. That alone would be it execution of soft power resources, a whole of government kind of response we dont have now. Right now we defense pacts and sanctions. Youre either with us or. Thats our offering. The are offering something bigger. The europeans offering something bigger. Geo of belonging. We need to think along those lines. I think future leaders, millennials and gen zs are going to be a lot more interested in that kind of pathway dealing with Climate Change on that basis, socializing that risk that we already see coming across the border. You know, the dry corridor, the northern triangle megadrought for years and years now. Thats where the guatemalan el salvadorians hondurans, theyre all coming on the basis of that kind of stress, environmental we think theyre coming because they m13 in the city. You got to ask yourselves, why are they in the city . Why they leave the land . Thats the kind of problems that we need to deal with. And anything that moves it along that line breaks the mold, breaks the thinking gets the conversation shifted, i think it would be absolutely fantastic. Dr. Barnett, weve had so fabulous questions submitted, but to closes out on our last one for the evening before we break. How does your proposed strategy align with u. S. Grand strategy of offshore balancing . I think it does in the sense offshore balancing you know, we got into this super power game, the second world war. We decided to kind of box in the soviets left and right. And salvage what we could on both sides. Then we got very focused on the middle east over the course of the cold war. Okay. So weve done entire eurasian landmass. Left, right and center. I think can remain an offshore balancer. I think the glue argument that Pacific Command offers regarding our military presence throughout the pacific has worked for the first time in Human History. Weve got a number of powers that have risen without war. And weve changed the Global Economy on that basis. So id like to see us continue that role. Do i think it has to be a lot more unmanned . Yeah, i do. Ive been making that argument for 20 years. So i think there are ways to adjust to this. What im in terms of an integration and focus southward is not say dod, its more like homeland security. Its more like a true whole of government response. One victory i just saw recently that i thought was just amazing. I thought thats what im looking for, was web services. Signs that deal with el salvador, the new young president to do all Government Services in the cloud for the next seven years. Now far away comes in and does that. Were pretty scared about it. When amazon comes in that feels good. Okay. So that of reality thinking along those lines. Less combative with our tech. Id like to see us more eagerly push that kind of connectivity and you know its not so much the Monroe Doctrine im looking to reinstall. I dont want to get in a for tat fight with. The chinese and the russians and the iranian is kicking them out of places. I want to offer better connectivity package. So i think more along the lines of the roosevelt corollary i want to keep you out of debt trap diplomacy, which weve seen the ecuadorians kind of fall into. Thats the limit of the chinese. There is no joining the chinese. There is no joining chinese union. Anybody can become american any. Part of the world. Could become american. Okay. We have the brand. That is the power. Its not our money. Its not going to get it done because we dont have that much. And there are limits to what we can do with military power. But the attraction of our brand is immense. And id to see that, you know, weaponized turned on, turned into Something Better because, as i argue with that zone of turbulence next 20, 30, 40, 50 years between Climate Change, demography, the demands, a global middle class. Theres way america is going to be the biggest power in the world unless we adapt. Okay. Scientists tell us that species have to adapt at 10,000 times their normal evolutionary rate. Okay if thats happening in the natural, then certainly weve got to pick up the pace in the political and economic realm. I think we have the capacity with a. I. , Everything Else coming on. I think we have technology. We have to stop demonizing and science. We have to embrace our capacity to deal with complexity. And we have to make this offer not because we want to take over latin america because. We want to offer them Something Better. And i think its about time that we engage that kind of empathy on a hemispheric because were all living together this world. Thank you so, dr. Barnett. Really your remarks for our guest. Wed invite you to move to the other of the room. There will be folks available for sale. Dr. Barnett will available for signing. And there some refreshments. So thank you so much for your time, dr. Barnett. Thank you very much for this

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