Transcripts For CSPAN2 The Age Of Em 20161111

If you havent already done so please remit or corrupt or silence your cell phone. Also those improve the vessel furniture by filling out a survey. The information we collect helps us improve the festival from year to year. There are also book sales over here to the right for we can do the check and cash, paypal, cash . Great. On to the event. Dr. Hanson is the author of the book the age of em love and life when robots rule the earth which is published by Oxford University press in may 2016. Dr. Hanson is associate professor of economics at the center for study of public choice at George Mason University and Research Associate at the future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University with nine Years Experience as a Research Programmer at both lockheed and nasa. So obviously he is a Diverse Research interests including but not limited to group insurance, broadband and the bioethics of health care. You can read more about his work on his blog at overcoming bias. Com. It will be worth your time, the Financial Times said robin hanson one of those original thinkers i in the world and this fascinating account of our future society is like nothing you read anywhere else, astonishing stuff. Please help a welcome robin hanson. [applause] im going to give a short talk and well have lots of time for questions, and i know there will be lots of questions, so get them ready. Now reading unless you beg me. This is all of history on one graph. On the x. Axis is log rhythm of time, sometime in the near future for all fits. On the y. Axis is the growth rate of the human economy and of other things before. Notice it looks like a staircase. Humans started 1 million years ago and double roughly every quarter million years at a steady rate and then there was a sudden transition. When the growth rate jumped up by a factor of more than 50, having farmers a double roughly every 1000 years. That happened about 10,000 years ago. Been 200 years ago there was another transition from the Industrial Revolution. And then the growth rate again jumped up in less than a doubling time to be doubling every 15 years. Thats what its been doing for the last few centuries. If this trend were to continue then sometime in the next century roughly, it would be a five year period and during that period would be a transition to an economy that is a doubling every 15 years doubled every month. And that would last for a year or two and then Something Else would happen. It would change again. That would be a straightforward projection of previous trends. That sounds pretty crazy. Now, the most dramatic scenario people have given that economy, and society to change a lot, our robots or artificial intelligence, machines as smart as people. I was an ai researcher for nine years from 8493 and ive been in the habit of talking to people in that field who have been interviewed for at least 20 years and ive been asking them how far has revealed come in the last 20 years as a percentage of the distance to human level abilities . They usually coming five to 10 of the distance, no notice of acceleration or he would take to do for such a soybean field to reach human level ability which is short compared to the distance roman empire but not in the immediate future. Some people say we are going to dramatic progress in the future, even the past progress was slow so that it will be much faster we will discover a great brandnew theory may be. Off focus on a third scenario by which we might achieve smart robots. Its called brain emulation to the ideas like porting software. If you have an old computer the 20 software you like, theres a new computer and go to Software Like that on the new computer, what approaches to secure the old software, try to guess that works and then write software in the new computer attacks attempting to old one works. Another approach is to write was called an emulator. This is a program on the new computer that makes the new and look like the old one. If you do that you can move the software screwed over, but it without understanding it, without knowing how it works, just move it. The idea is to do that same thing court to software thats in the human brain. We need three technologies to reach sign up levels but none of them are there yet. We need lots of cheap fast parallel computers. We need to take individual human brain and scan them in detail to see which kinds of cells aware, connected what with which parameters. And then we need to have computer models, models of inputoutput beaver of each kind of cell in the brain this is how it takes signals an, changes and will stay in sends signals out. If youre good enough model for all the kinds of cells in the brain and do good in the skin of a particular brain then you can put together a model of that particular brain with all those cheap fast parallel computers. If the model are good enough and the skin is good enough then by definition the entire model should be good enough. It should have the same inputoutput behavior so you can hook it up with hands, eyes, ears, mouth and then talk to it. It would talk back to do it at the same as the region within the same situation but if you can do that you have whats called a brain emulation and then everything could change. Ive been around people talk about this idea for many decades. Its a staple of sciencefiction and futurism. A Great College bold session topic or when the subject comes up people like to talk about is it possible, which technology would make it happen, when what happened . If you can make what would be conscious or is it just a machine . If you could make an emulation of me is it me or somebody else . Those all fascinating questions that im going to ignore. I think theres a neglected question that gets set aside in all those discussions which is what would actually happen. How does the world change . Theres been very little of that. Science fiction sometimes deals with this in their but they are not realistic. Think of three kinds of futurism. One way to protect the future is to take trancelike decreasing religiosity, increasing leisure, decreasing marriage, try to project those ford and what happens in the future another kind is look for technologies that might disrupt trends like selfdriving cars are blocking change. You ask when without show up . What form . How expensive . A third kind of futurism is take one of those Disruptive Technologies and you say how would the world change . A lot of the people who know how to do number two, how to imagine technologies dont think number three is possible. Because like me when i was an undergraduatundergraduate in phy would not there is no such thing as social science. Nobody knows anything over there. Im a professor of economics by now and i say its not. We do know things and want to try to convince people it is possible to social science to think about the future. This is a map of academia. All the major field and how theyre connected. These links are where the fields are linked to each other a lot. It turned out to be relevant. Whats relevant is on drawing on all these colored boxes for the purpose of this book. I have a diverse background. That you ability qaeda make a virtue out of writing a book if you only knew a lot about a lot of different fields. Take the lowhanging fruit. Im going to go area by area looking for easy things to say, straightforward implications of standard results. When it gets hard i go onto the next area. Im going to do a theorist do everywhere which is look for my keys under the lamppost. That is, i make some assumptions as necessary to get concrete results. I will explain right now with those assumptions are. This is my last slide before started thing about the age of em. First of all im trying not to be original or creative other than by asking this unusual questioning what would have happened if you bringing elections . Im not going to tell you what you should like or not like. No, judnick 11 or hate it. Just going to try to tell you what is likely to happen if we follow the path of least resistance. I would be pleased to bestow more like a history test and less like a comical sciencefiction movie. Im going to focus on the bus because thats what most of the action is although we will talk about humans. Im not going to tell you about the entire history of the universe of the next trillion years. My ambition is only to tell you about the next great era after hours, that is a different from ours as ours is from forging an apartment there. Amulet last year to in the Something Else will happen and im not going to talk about that. Im going to tell you about this once theyre used to. You are now used to the en end f the show aired. You know what this world is like that youre comfortable with the. During the early Industrial Revolution people did know what was happening. Its easier to predict what this was like when people used to love focus after the transition on more of an equilibrium. As an economist im going to use ecommerce standard desperate to which is called supply and demand. Supply and demand assumes whatever is being sold and lots of buyers and sellers and theres not much regulation. Thats what im also going to some. This is just our best first a tool to start with and then we go on from there. Finally, im going to assume that these emulations are okay and, therefore, simple. That is you can make the simulation, turn it on but you cant take one persons music and combined it with someone elses christmas vacation memory. You can just turn them on, turn them off, erase them, copy them, run them fast, run in slow. Thats it. Otherwise its just a block box. That means they behave a lot like the original payments because thats pretty much all you can do to them. Those are my working assumptions and now going to tell you about tonight as best i guess it. Some of my results are true for any world dominated by robots. Robots can be represented as computer files. So robots can be immortal. Today houses and cars can be a moral duty to keep preparing them and maintain them they could last for ever but you dont always so just because they could be immortal doesnt mean they are. Electronic files can be sent across the world at the speed of light. Therefore, robots can travel across the world of the speed of light because they can be represented as computer files. You are afraid if you kill major you will die. Its a reasonable fear. Robots know that if theyre made in factories and actually kill major, they do not die. They are less afraid of killing nature. You can make copies of files. This has enormous implications. First of all, wages quickly fall to subsistence levels. That is, the competition for all these copies that can be very easily made pushes wages down to the cost of making and breaking new hardware which is much less than usual human wages or even human substances wages. Will talk about humans in a moment. Because you can copy so quickly, the economy can grow much faster. Standard economic theory says if you can make substitutes for human workers in factories just as fast as you can make ordinary things make today in factories, the economy can double every month. Thats not crazy. Thats a straightforward implications of standard Economic Growth theory. If it takes you to get to mars and economy doubles of the month, profit seeking ventures will just not bother. Its way too long a delay. So during the age of em they wont bother with things in space and not even so much with things our way on earth. Humans must retire. They will be all country into small number of densities succubus can have the rest of you but humans come they will be outcompeted for the jobs by the emulation and selectively humans all lose their ability to earn wages. However, humans also collectively owned this entire world. They own all the factors, real estate, land. So if the economy doubles every month there will doubles every month. Humans get rich very fast collectively of whethe above ane individual human does okay depends on whether they have sufficient assets, insurance or sharing arrangements. My prediction is since that is a very enormous in the past across time or place, it will very again in the future. Some places will have sufficient insurance and others will not. Emulation start out as humans. Their mental and psychologically to restrict our within the human race but they are not typical humans. Us into the typical emulation is not in the middle of the dish vision it were thinking about characteristics that make them more productive. They are off on the end. They are elite. Probably most are copies of the few hundred most productive humans. That makes emulations as the lead as typical billionaires, head of state, nobel prize winners, olympic Gold Medalist a typical emulation isnt that good and they know it. They look back over on humans with the stalls and gratitude but maybe not so much respect which is if you think about how you think about your ancestors but if all the more reason to think so. We know a lot of things that theyre and correlate with is more productive in our society so i can use those things to protect typical features. They are more conscientious, workaholics, peak into productivity what everybody. For us like 40 or 50. Theyre probably get up in the morning, married even though religious because these all things that correlate with be more productive in our society. Most jobs in advanced econ our desk jobs. Theres no point of putting it in a little mechanical desk. The award on the computer and its cheap to give them a luxury his first are really compared the cost of running their brain. They have luxurious beautiful environment. In Virtual Reality where most of the work and all of them leisure. They never need hunger, pain, disease. Their bodies are always beautiful, always looked young. Its a great world except notice these are all desks. They are working most of the time. They are a hardworking competitive emulation. Some of you when you were youngg you may be looked about and thought i seem to be weird. I wonder if im from another planet . I wonder if someday i will meet other people from a plant and said they would be like me and well get along. For em this is true. Remember most of them are copies of the few hundred most productive humans and so for each when the baby billions of other emulations walking from the same original human. They have more in common with them. That becomes a new unit of social organization that they can use of law and politics and finance. That allows them to get more things done. Probably the most traumatic thing that ever happened to the human race so far was the transition from foraging to farming. We forgers were in rough equilibrium with environment. When he did what felt natural it was usually the right thing to do. But when farming became possible it was only possible because humans have a plastic in a kind of culture that culture could change and tell people that new kind of attitude and value was the kind that was right for them. Farming culture cranked up religious pressures and a fully pressured to create a new set of values of the farming world. Farmers have a lot more inequality, war, lack of travel, more work from all things that forgers didnt like but farmers got used to them. That pressure that held farming in place weekend as we got rich in the last few hundred years. As weve got rich it feels less compelling to go. In the old pharmacology of a young woman was told to give a child out of wedlock you and your child may start, that was a credible threat. Today when youre rich this is a challenge that and you go, i would survive, i would do okay. The cultural pressures that turned forgers into farmers feel less weakens the we of the trends in the last two centuries. This explains changes in fertility, increase democracy, decrease slavery, increase art, travel, all Budget Trends can be understood in terms of us going back to forge her ways because that feels more natural and the threats that makes into farmers feel less compelling because we are rich. Emulations are not rich. Because they go back to more subsistence income and because the culture needs to act in ways that are not natural to forgers they probably go back to farming style culture in many ways. They probably increased the pressures of religion and conforming and other things in order to get them act in the new styles of ways to the humans are rich capitalists on the side probably stay in a forger culture. This is your life. Simple, start and end. This is the life of an emulation who every day when the ready for work, a shortterm task and it is but maybe they will stand in line at the dmv. These shortterm copies are all work. The mainline copy work and then have to pay for leisure to get ready for the next day but these are the copies are all work so even though they have a disadvantage of not remembering, they are still much more productive. This is a very tempting strategy. We will talk more about in a minute. This is an opportunistic em. They make more copies of themselves. They dont know ahead of time which one it will be so its a chaotic tree of life. This is an emulation designer. They conceive of a whole system perhaps an Amusement Park and then they break into copies who didnt elaborate at the sight of it all the way down to doing all the detail. In this way a single emulation can conceive of a much larger integrated design than we can today. Today when we design everything, one guy decides it and other people emulate a. This is an emulation plumber. Who remembers every day for the last 20 years they only ever worked two hours a day, a life of leisure. Every day when they were ready for work they made 1000 copies of this plumber, each filled to the to our plumbing job and one of them went on to the next day. Object of late this plumber is working over 99 of the time. Subjectively the remember a life of leisure. Emulations can be working very hard but that doesnt mean they remembered that way or see it that way. We know many systems Like Software of which of the future as they adapt to particular circumstances and context they become fragile and hard to read that two new context. This applies not just a software but to products and sales and species into the human brain. Human brains start out young with able to learn many things but not learning much. Knowing a lot but harder to learn. Possibly thats not just because a biological aging. Its because of his general feature we see in software. Because of this emulations by the agent have a limited career life. They may be able to live for ever indefinitely in retirement, but they have to retire after a certain period, perhaps a century or to a subjective worklife after which they need to be replaced by other copies who were trained in slightly later ways. They see younger and older versions of themselves who live in sin city, married the same people, to the same jobs so they have a good idea what the future is going. And whether its going to work out. Because theyve all these versions of themselves around. Again this is you. This could be you if at the beginning of a party you took a drug that said, that meant the next day or a rat you would not remember that part. Some people have done this voluntarily, they told me. Ask yourself, new the end of this party would you say to yourself, im about to die, i became a new creature at the beginning of this party that no one else will ever remember and im about to die. This is terrible. Or you could say to yourself, im going to continue tomorrow. I just wont remember what i did today. Those are both possible attitude you could take their im guessing most of you would take this ticket want but theyre both available as possibilities. This is the same structure and this is for an emulation with a shortterm copy to stand in the line at the db. They could think of themselves as a new creature with a short life which they hate and they will fight it, or they can think of this as a part of themselves that they will not remember. I predict this is, jessica will be the actual attitude not because its the correct of you but just because he was having a to encompass many possible views of the culture will greatly reward the second you and this helps in competition. Even if you are okay with ending cannot remember what you did, if people around you talk to you before you dont remember what to talk to you about, that would frustrate them. A simple solution is to copy whole teams of people together, have to Work Together and or retire together. Today targeted celebrities. Their time is limited. With emulations if you want to be a celebrity to the. They sped off another copy and you meet with a celebrity. Its hard to do, to get celebrities to review because this copy doesnt pass on to the main. Today at the present this we must invade iraq and you say why could they they you say why couldnt they think it can become, trust me. You dont know whether you can trust the. Emulations can play the following trick. I citizen makes a copy of themselves, the present next a copy, inside the state the president abbas when all other secret reasons and that the and the entire state is erased except one that comes up. The one bit wa was when cyprus would quit the citizen tells the original version, if i was or was not persuaded. Now you can find out english things even though they cant know the actual reasons. In your life today show the three phases. You have a youth where you train youth where you drink a little like when youre the most productive and a retirement afterwards. Emulations have those same three phases that they can train a few copies and make many copies of those trainees so they can afford to put resources into training. If they are not rich when they retire, they can retire slow. Emulations come in fast or slow and the cost of owning any malaysian is proportional dispute over a wide range. If you run 10 times slower you cost 10 times less. So emulations can retire at a slow speed. As soon as they retire the world around them start speaking up and they care about the stability of the civilization at that point. This range of which speed is proportional to cost probably goes up to a least a million times human speed. Theres a huge range of speeds. They probably club in two classes of speeds your we can interact with others, they would clump into the same speeds. After emulations are high status in many ways. They embody more wealth. They host meetings, they went arguments. They know things first. They are just high status. This is a class hierarchy where those at the top have an objective reason to think they are better. They are able to do a lot more because they are faster. Down at the bottom of this hierarchy is mostly retirees and their like the ghost of our literature. If you recall in literature, bills are creatures that all around rarely able to interact with them. Sometimes you could whats the point because they dont know much. They cant do much and they are not useful allies. They are obsessed with the past. Their skills are out of date. All you can do is have a weird conversation with them. Thats what the retirees are like. A whole world of ghosts, the ghosts have the own ghosts because there are things even slower than them and thats the weird worldly age of em. We are not all in one big city because when we double the size of a city we get 34 more Traffic Congestion per person which limits having big cities. Cities. For emulations they can be with anybody in the city and Virtual Reality without sin themselves or their brain. They can just and the bits that represent the meeting so they can interact Long Distances achievement which means theyre much less travel costs which they can cram into a small number perhaps even one big dense cities. Today if you are in Virtual Reality with anybody on earth, at human speed the signals the late at getting like speaker is less than a reduction of onetenth of the second so you dont have to know where they are. When it relations on faster than that, if theyre running 16 times faster, then you need to be put in 1000 kilometers so they can not notice what they are. This puts a limit on how fast demolitions want to go because they go to fast and they start to have fewer people they can interact with easily. If they run too slow, then these skills they develop early in the grid are in love but because the economy changes to fast. Theres a sweet spot between this. In the one or two years of the emulation era they would experience thousands of years. So theres plenty of time for cultural change about the events to happen even if not the humans outside. This is my last slide. Many of you im really quite sure are tended to evaluate this world, decide whether you like it or not. But think, your ancestors in 1000 years ago wouldve loved or hated your world depend on the first few things they heard about it because its so easy to have a Fast Reaction to your work is rooted in and is world is just weird to you. One way is to read my book and understand in more detail, otherwise just posit and try to see the world in its full complexity before you make a quick evaluation of these pluses and minuses will give some reminders. Remember in Virtual Reality, no pain, hunger, disease. Eatable bodies. They are not afraid of death or any. Have a vast population signs are worth living. Their biggest cities will be so much bigger than yours, just not enough going on in your cities. Larger economy can afford to develop, a more fixed cost for stories, music, et cetera. The world seems more stable. These are all pluses perhaps. On the minus side they are living at subsistence wages be they must work most of the time to eat. This is our most of your ancestors ever lived until a few hundred years ago. Its not a hypothetical center. Its the standard scenario in history. They work long hours. They often make shortterm copies. Theres more inequality in this world. Larger more bureaucratic firms. They are perhaps less nature, less space travel. More religion, less democracy. This is the age of em. Not my job to make you love it or hate it. If you want to change it, youre welcome to try. This is the night and now im sure you have many questions and comments to discuss. Speak im not sure the question is [inaudible] do you think of you suggested that in this world of humans are the owning class, right speak with yes. I guess i dont understand why, because they would tolerate that state of affairs. Well today and for a long time weve seen high levels of ownership inequality of couple. Its been one of the features of the war for a long time. Clearly it has existed and been stable for a long time i think they could continue to be stable and speedy copies of the most impressive humans. Theres two kinds of success in this world to think about. Any emulation starts to have, we already know that absentee voters get lower rates of return than managers and simulations are going to be on managers, they will get higher rates of return on their investment and we have a larger fraction of the well but that will take time. Presumably humans will lose out because they are so clueless in this world and i find they will just be exploited and mismanage their investments and will lose their wealth factor but theres still alongterm. We have lots of rich retirees in our world and we could say to ourselves, lets kill them and take their stuff. Its something we could say that we dont so thats a precedent perhaps for a while at least that humans could be rich retirees if those that dont kill them and take their stuff because that threatens the stability of their society just like telling hours retirees would affect the stability of our society. Back there . Lets take your plumber example and you have a bunch of plumbers working two hours a day and one of them survives. The first question is, how do you decide which one survives . Second, your scenario with training, work, retire. You cant learn everything in a training period. You have to learn on the job. Out of that one surviving plumber, he would get the information from the hundred other jobs he is a plumber were doing so that he could continue to learn and become a better plumber and related to that, humans do need some downtime and presumably emulations would need downtime as well so other than numbers that wouldnt necessarily work all the time. So thats why i described the mess having a break at the end of the workday. Which is why its tempting to not have all the copies continue on to the next day theres a tradeoff in productivity. These copies, compared to some of you who work 12 hours a day and take 12 hours of rest, they are half the cost which is a huge temptation. You also dont learn as much from them but that could be worth a factor or two. You have enough experience that the mainline copy knows enough to do their job well and you are willing to pay for having this other report for much cheaper and so you make the right tradeoff between learning as much as you need to do your job well and trying to do it as cheaply as possible by only making as many learning persons as you need, thats how the economy would make that choice. They would have leisure. In terms of which ones continue, this is up to them. Ask yourself, what do we do . You are the first copy there, you decide what happens and how do you want to go. If you cant manage to do this and when these copies do their job, you are a very good candidate for this world. This world is full of people who try to do this area and find a way that its okay with them and the simplest way is its random which ones go on to the next day. They all stand chance and remember in history when they were the one that was picked. Exactly. So they can be irrational about it in all equivalents, why should it be me instead of you . Why would net create, have you ever gone to reagans site . Why should it be me instead of you, i refuse to die. A similar question, what would you think would happen in this world if people discovered certain types of paths could not be productively completed by people who had a couple hours of memory on a specific test . Those jobs will cost you. In the world of task, theres some jobs that can be automated and once we find a job that can be automated we are willing to do that because its a lot cheaper. Robots are more expensive, we do them less because they are more expensive. In this world, engineers make the same as janitors. Pretty much all processions make the same wage in this world which is different than in our world. In this world that use fewer lawyers and more janitors, more janitors, fewer lawyers because the things that are expensive in our world get cheap in their world. Today, we dont do this as much because theyre expensive. We do them who charge a lot, here they are just a percentage so you do more of them. You just will yourself out of existence . So just to be clear, theres two options when a productive cycle is over. One is simply erasure, another is retirement and if you retire at 1000 is the speed, if you are squeamish about being a race, retire. Some emulations will be okay with just erasing and they will do that. Those were not they will retire as well. Socially, the implication of having one of your spurs murder the predecessor, like, because you say that its random, right . Or it could be random. It doesnt have to be an essential choice. Each have can decide this for themselves. You can decide what works for you in terms of which copies you make and how you printed out. If youre not okay with any process, you figure out some way to be okay with it, some way to manage it and they continue on and there could be a diversity of ways they do it, it doesnt have to be one way. Whatever works for them and i predict some people find a way to do it, some people will be okay with it and this world will be full of people like that. You guys are quickly okay with not dismembering the party thing. Youre willing to see yourself as a Party Last Week and you dont remember as you and that the party you are willing to see that future person as you and its a structure so i predict some people will be okay with it. Other people arent and they arent here. Its a straightforward selection argument and its not my jobto make you like the world, just to tell you what its like. A candidate for em , does the brain or the copy have to be an expert in or you can copy anyones face . Technology would change over time. At the beginning, most likely the Effective Technology is descriptive. You would destroy a brain in the process of reading all the details in order to become an emulation. At the early period, its quite a choice to choosing to continue a human life or becoming an emulation. At the worst, quickly the emulation will most likely what children from someone as opposed to adults so you have the rich emulation world or the large, wealthy powers of the emulation world approaching human adults to have promising human children, saying, could we destructively scan your child they have a chance to be trained and become a successful emulation . That would have a potential for drama and conflict but i predict some of them will do it and the world will be full of descendents of those children. Versus em agents, and the environment a Virtual World or do you think of it as that they are already agents in a Virtual World and when they need to interact a download themselves to a body . I would think of it like we are people that get into cars sometimes. When we need a car, we get into a car and then we are a person driving a car. The emulations would get into a physical body as appropriate for whatever task needed. They could switch minute by minute if they wanted to because those who are doing physical tasks like managing a factory or driving a truck or whatever it is, they would need a body appropriate for that task but only while they are doing the task the body needs. The body could be any sort of body appropriate for the job, it wouldnt have to look like a human. And Virtual Reality, they can make their bodies look whatever they want. I guess, i dont know. Yes. If so, do you make many copies of the same original brain . And also brains have the same doing and. By definition, an emulation of a brain is capable of all the same processes that the original brain is which includes learning and remembering and changing moods. When you scan an original brain, it has some original fate to what it had for breakfast, what it remembers from the last day and when you turn off out of emulation, it starts remembering those things that it happened a few days or future Years Experience, it becomes a new creature who has a new set of experiences. By assumption, these have all the same emotions because they are emulations of the same original being. By definition, an emulation of the original does the same thing in the same situation but the reason an emulation becomes different later is it had a different life, its lived in a different world. Because of that different world it becomes Something Different but its still within the human range of experience. If that makes sense. People would be completely okay with this station in life for an eternity . Might they decide not to kill their host . I told you that the low end of the c range goes back to 1 billion, that because thats the seed where the cost of running a human seed emulation is basically 1 billion the cost of saving archive costs. Archive copies are cheap, at one percent of the cost of five minutes experience you can spin off and archive copy every five minutes. I just have a lot of archive copies sitting around, the archive copy doesnt expect it would ever be revived but it doesnt expect it will be. When a copy is made of you, unless you were told to expect something, you just remember who you are as a copy was made. Is it still running . Most archive copies are still static, just a frozen state and they are available to be run again. If you want to not run it, running very slow ends up eating in the limit, running slow is, the very slow retirees are in an intermediate state where they can experience the world but going so fast, they dont have to be scared their ending but the world is going so fast they have to wonder whether civilization is stable. And there are objective means of deciding who is better than who in society based on these needs . I have legacy copies of myself getting in this kind of spaceof even the way they are running , i expected it as a legacy to just be okay with being objectively worse forever . This is not an essential eyes world. Those of you who may know, using economics as one basic economic any people dont realize, we analyze world where nobody is in charge. Nobody runs the world. There are lots of powers who run their own part of it. They get to see how they run it. Theres a competition that puts pressure on them not to do things too far away from what was efficient but they can do things in a variety of different ways. Beside your clan you can have whatever rules you want to have about deciding which copy you revive when and when you turn them off and what you do with them. Its up to you but you are under pressure like a firm to figure out an actual way to do this, just like today in a firm theres a profit to deciding who does which job. This process has some people doing more jobs than others. Its different room that decide that but pretty much everybody forces themselves into some local world where decisions get made and the emulation would sort themselves into some world and im trying to analyze the consequences of these and not predict exactly who gets what where. In the archive and revivingit , the copies in spanish, when they awaken because they had already changed so much with they realize they are less effective now and with they still be able to do anything . Would they be anywhere near there . When you have a range of Copies Available in archive, honoring which one is most appropriate, you have a number of considerations. One is that whoever was doing that task a moment ago was probably a good candidate so you are tempted to keep with whoever was doing it. One seems to be getting older and frail, think about replacing it with a younger version and there will be a transition cost of this younger person isnt as family or with this context and maybe they are up on the latest skills but they are younger and more flexible you are willing to pay that cost for the transition to somebody else in the role. This is how we do it in our jobs today. We may be doing a job but we dont always have the same person doing the same job. Sometimes because we have our younger person coming who learns new ways and has flexibility over a swap so its the same sort of thing of a range of options you are choosing which ones to be best for this world. Is each one of these ems living in their own Virtual Reality unaware that they are copy . Many of you have seen movies of humans and other creatures in Virtual Reality and of course a favorite story in a cultural reality is somebody is a Virtual Reality and they dont know its a Virtual Reality or they dont care anymore there in this fantastic creative world for them. These emulations live in fantastic creative world but whos going to pay for it is the question . Its a world of wages where most people need to work most of the time to exist. On computer hardware, the cities are huge racks of computer hardware and you need to rent that slot to exist and that means they need to pay for that rental. They need to pay for the hardware, energy, cooling, repair. They need an income to pay for all that. In equilibrium, most of them need to be working most of the time. When they have limited free time, they can do whatever they want in strange Virtual Realities but when they are certain socializing they need to be in the same Virtual Reality because thats how friendship works. Most of the time, most of them are in shared Virtual Realities with otherswhich can be uncomfortable but they have to compromise on the details that they cant all be in charge. How do we know this has already happened . You dont but you have to ask yourself if this were actually the world, this would be a very expensive simulation. All this is not very useful for doing what this world needs at the moment so theyre paying for all of you to run your mind and what value are they getting . This is not plausible for running you in these situations to get things done. In some world theres some rich person that was to run thing but how many of those could there be . Yes. On attack of Virtual Reality, do you think that a detailed Virtual Reality would be less expensive than a sophisticated Program Running and entering the human brain . Because i dont know if its a trivial question whether its this phallic, audio, Virtual Reality where people socialize and then it becomes enjoyable would necessarily be much easier Computer Program then just the human brain that performs a task. Do you think it would be something that. If you want the simulated world like you see here, its enough that even an expert using expert material to test couldnt tell the difference. That could be very expensive. On the other hand, weve seen people function in Virtual Realities and video games which are costing vastly less then the cost of running these and they seem to function okayand even enjoy themselves. They have enormous computing costs so they look like people with okay functioning and Virtual Realities cost much less. We are not able to run the brain, our brains are enormously expensive but yet all of us have video games running untidy hardware that produces okayenvironments. My question is more about the security aspect because everything is on computers in a Virtual World. Wouldnt another em be able to create a virus or something that could fundamentally change other ems to corrupt what makes them be or change their morality on a fundamental level . In economics when we do supply and demand our first assumption is that Property Rights are preserved and that doesnt happen but of course we are quickly able to move that additional assumption to model a world where thats possible. In the world we live in, we have a modest degree of theft and a modest degree of war and thats a few Percentage Points of the economy but its a relatively small section. The simulation world looks like its capable of having another protection of Property Rights that they could also fully estimate a few Percentage Points for the economy to keep most things safe and suffer sometimes when things dont. They dont care that much about ending copies but one thing they will really hate is that so if you are say, trying to travel Long Distance and somebody grabs a copy of that brain, they can do things back to you have installing a copy of you. They can torture this copy to great game secrets, invincible things, they could make this copy compete in the market and take away your wealth and stolen copies are bad things and this world will dislike stolen copies and they will work harder to prevent theft of the brain then they would, so this was it be a great moral outrage to them. What did you change your mind about while you were writing the book . In other words, what assumptions did you have going in that you didnt have going out . I guess i didnt fully appreciate how weird things would be. That is, the world was a very large place. Basically, i tried to describe an entire civilization. I would have had half the side and be done have as long as the publisher had been ready for me. I kept working and adding things to it and it ends up having a lot so i just ended up going over other areas, seeing what about these areas of the world and i ended up with a lot. When you look at it all, its just a lot in the sense that the world we live in is a complicated place in your world is really just drained. You dont quite perceive how strange your world is. It has so many moving parts that are different that you understand and to ask that they wouldnt get so when i tried to think about a different world with detail and work out as many details as i can, the most dramatic thing is wow, theres a lot of things that can change. The net effect is a whole strange different world. And our first reaction when we hear about a strange different world which of course fiction writers like yourself understand is that they need to give readers clues right ahead of whether they are supposed to love or hate the world. A real strange world, youre at a loss because you dont know. Its just strange. And even when you release yourself you realize we take the world from a lot of different views but i havent lived there for years. I dont still dont know whether i love it or hate it, its just weird. I guess thats what youshould really expect. You should really expect the future to be quite different in a way that is into it. It adds up to ways that add up to a strange different world. Lets talk about this first bullet under the dh body, its going to be true for the em but what about the 20 billion, 30 billion people who are out there not doing anything . They will still have childbirth which ive been told, they will still age, they will get alzheimers, whatever. So i fully understand that. This is about the emulation. Thinking of evaluating this world, this world shows up. You add this world to yours but in a year or two, the numbers dont change, it cant change. Human culture changes. You have a snapshot of the human world to start but governments get rich and pretty much you cant have very many babies. They cant do very many things as theres not enough time with humans. Now youre thinking what if we add on to the human world this whole world to like or not, this added part of the world. What do i think of that . Thats what made me evaluate, humans. There are some things with humans. They do their job. They can be comfortable and rich but thats all there is to say about it because they had time for things down. Humans should be worried about what happens next area you should be worried about what happens next. And im not telling you, thats the way it goes. The faster the future changes, the more you should expect that future to intrude on your life and make you unawares for whats going happen. They will be able to retire but that will only happen if people share or insure themselves properly. So what are the rules that we have to break to share properly, is that minimum basic income and should we be reading those rules now and hospitals predicting what when that will happen . As with insurance of all sorts, if you think a problem might happen to justify the insurance, make sure you buy just before the trouble. Its better to buy the insurance ahead of time. This problem is not plausibly going to happen soon but on the other hand, when it can happen it will happen relatively fast. Sure, set yourself up now when you can. Insurance and sharing can happen at all possible levels. You could have a global treaty where the whole world makes an agreement that seems unlikely. You and your family, you and your siblings and your spouse can also share at a local level and do things personally by having a contract with an Insurance Company or choosing your investment. Theres a wide range of options you have available to yourself for sharing arrangements. Pursue them all and figure out which ones looked easiest and most effective and do those. I dont have any strong arguments about why you should do any one thing but i dont think you should dictate on one option as the option, look at whatever you can do. You can convince government to do something, great, but dont count on it. You can do something inside yourself, you should do that too and protect yourself and your family and yourself if you can rather than relying on other people to protect you. Its a straightforward thing to do. Most of you probably cant. I dont know if anything would be religious or ritualistic because technically for them theres no human, dont just looking like they were human . You have a standard story in social science about why religion corrupts. Religion is centered in spirituality but religion has these powerful central moralizing gods with a lot of dislike for people breaking the rules which is a lot different than traditional duality ended this traditional religion was effective at getting farmers to follow the new social norms that the farmers designed between places when they started farming, things like that but religion has this story what it was therefore. Rituals are part of finding religion, there are rituals is a thing religions use but those can be used many other ways for people to follow their group and a world of themhave need. As im pointing out, they have a lot of behaviors that are appropriate in this world that dont come natural. We need to act in new ways and religion and other cultural pressures are available to resources in this world to get them to do that. Even today, there are correlations for people who are religious or born today , a correlation of what its like today, religions are helpful in getting people more productive so thats what we need to protect here. In the back. They may be really expensive when theres not a whole lot of progress, what do you think of those states and do you think there are any jobs that wouldnt be suitable for em . The second one is more easy. If you are a rich human and you want a real Human Service for dinner, maybe youd be willing to pay for a real human to serve you dinner because you are rich and youre going to get it. When there is a demand for a human to do a job and somebody wants to be sure, even certified and making sure it doesnt look like a human, humans can do those jobs, thats a limited range of jobs. Emulations can do anything human can accept be a real human. For the very beginning, the very first emulation, youve spent billions of dollars making the first emulation. You can run it, and you are looking for people to pop up their profession today who the world is going to pay a lot for. If the scan is the main cost and you want to scan somebody and theres lots of demand, you are focused on the individual jobs that are expensive. The eos are often paid a lot, its a status but running emulation, maybe they will have copies of those. Its all a pretty small job market, if you want lawyers, there are a lot more of those. Id imagine the best engineer, best lawyer and get copies of those and make more money at the beginning. As i said, at the beginning you want people who are best in the current human world but see if the world changes so you want younger people who are more able to adapt and learn the new ways in which case the emulation more quickly for younger human children the scan is less destructive again. Destructively scanning humans to make emulations work so a dramatic story. About three assumptions of whats needed and have effective emulations, have you given much thought to status of each of those sciences or crafts. Trial processing is in the near future but the others may not. Whats your project and on this actualization of the funds . I said there are technologies to acquire, backup computers and brainbased models. These are really very different sizes. Computers is a Huge Industry which theres very little anybody can do to influence that based on emulations but modeling is a tiny area of academia so theres a lot more scope there were putting more effort in if you wanted to booted up. When people think this is possible soon, they would put huge amounts of money into speeding up whichever areas are slowestbut they would wait until they are almost ready. Brain cell modeling is a long way off, scanning is doing pretty well with brain scans. But brain cell modeling is hard to predict. With scans, just like you can do High Resolution and track it and can project a scale and efforts, similarly with computers, you dont really know when you are done that you are done. You could have more unexpected jumps where you thought it was a long way off and finally boone, its done. Thats why its hard to predict how they modeling because its the last thing they get ready and then they see what happens. The transition happens differently depending on which of these technologies is the last one ready. If the last Technology Ready is widely available because they distribute it in a smooth transition, if its very steady and anticipated because of anticipated transition, if the last Technology Ready is based technology concentrated or random then you could end up with random, suddenly it happens to people and is affected and only a small group of people that are affected in any position if there were any Technology Open wide. Compared to other kinds of artificial intelligence, this is more professional technologies to an ordinary ai, we slowly get better at our jobs and its this long slow weight in the economy but in emulation, until you have a whole emily emulation working you dont have much. Theres a point in time where you can do in emulation and now all of a sudden you can do a lot and that brings the possibility for more disruptive positions when the em shows up. Whats our time here . I mean, when are we supposed to be done . Does anybody know . Does anybody have another question or if not i will thank you. I have a few copies to sell, thank you for coming. [applause]. [inaudible conversation] book tv is on twitter and facebook and we want to hear from you. To us twitter. Com book tv. Or post a comment on our facebook page, facebook. Com book tv. Now on book tv we want to introduce you to paul greenough, a professor of constitutional history at hillsdale collegeand the author of the book, the bureaucrat kings , the underpinnings of americas bureaucratic state, professor marino, on page one of your book you write the United States is ruled by an establishment nowhere mentioned in the constitution, what does that mean . Guest this is the Fourth Branch of government which in a way is a combination of the other three branches as a part of constitutional problem. The original constitution was founded on the basis of separation of powers, i believe the most in structural feature of the constitution and in the 20th century weve developed an administrative apparatus for these Environmental Protection agencies and federal communications commissions, most of this started with the new deal and they combined legislative executive institutional powers and management called this the essence of