David and i are going to try Something Different today. Dave is going to be going to be the emcee of our event today. We will see how this experiment and process unfolds with you here. David, do you want to take over now . Okay. I thought it was usual dnc starts first. We want to welcome api to the neighborhood is one of my colleagues says my colleagues says, we cannot send massachusetts avenue at least, any ice to the of brookings. I am really glad nick has done this book because i think that the acute issues of the Great Recession had to a large extent not completely passed and what we now observe that the number of chronic conditions which has mixed book shows has mixed book shows, has mixed bookshelves, baseline, the shocking fraction of prime age men who are not working in some thing that is a preexisting condition, something that preceded the Great Recession, maybe gotten worse and so it requires them in more than only we can talk a little bit about something to make the economy grow faster. Maple talk for a few minutes and then a couple sites in response to member will chat and bring you into the conversation. I should mention if you mention if youre watching a mind we are to field questions. Go to a website called sli. Do and enter a code to your write your name, type in your question and if we get to it, ill post it tonight. Thank you, david. I will try to discipline myself and expect you to discipline me if i dont discipline myself. I promise my book in 10 minutes or less. So things havent been going so well in the u. S. Labor markets and the turnofthecentury. The employment to population ratio, the work great for americans 20 and older peeked around the turnofthecentury and they have dropped in what i would regard as a diet manner as they shall in this chart. This is men and women together since the year 2000. But i point out in my book consistent line of work rates for men has been going on for a long time. It has been going on for at least 50 years. The lower line is the work great for men over the age of 20. Couldnt say wait a minute, that includes population aging but the gray line is a prime working age men. The key 2554 group. And its been something done once for half a century. Looking at the prime working age men employment problem. This is the proportion of nonworking man of prime ages from the beginning of the postwar era to the present government you can see this every ratcheting up with ever recession to a new worse normal. Right now 15 of prime age guys. If you want to compare it to the depression, you can and its not a happy comparison. If we look at the work rates for prime age men in 2015, they were actually about two percentage rates lower than for primates met in 1940 at the tail end of the depression. If you look at the group 20 to 64 years old likewise looks worse today than the tail end of the depression. Its not wrong to describe the Network Problem sbu nasa as if depression scale. In fact, if we just had american men back to work rates of 1965, david e. Another almost 10 million guys in america today. So the main reason for this collapse and i caught the collapse of work rates for men has been declining participation has been the liz trotta of men from the work force. They like to measure unemployment, but a very incomplete measure of whats going on. Unemployed guys who have checked out of the work force of the great line. Today there are over three times as many men who have left the workforce altogether under unemployed without a job and looking for work. The exit from the workforce dominates the nail lacquer work problem today. This kind of crazy chart is meant to show how the u. S. Looks in international comparison. Where the dark black dashed line. You can see with kind of won the race to the bottom. Actually, distraught female Labor Force Participation in america has been worse than in countries like greece or france are countries that have had a lost generation of Economic Growth like to pay them. This chart you probably wont be able to see and maybe go into the book from amazon. Com. What it shows is men who are out of the labor force by a march are checked out of civil society. They dont to civil society. Attempt of them arent those students trying to get back into the game. Their time patterns are very much like employed men for the rest of the group that neither quick nor an education and training. Theres plus civil participation, less volunteering, less charity work than working men or women for unemployed men. Likewise with child care and care for others like wasted housekeeping. Their fulltime job is watching, television, video, internet and the like. Not the best way to get back into the game of employment is very skilled generation so what are the reasons for this quiet catastrophe . I think we can call it a quiet catastrophe. Her three different sets of factors. Supply, demand, institutional or we can set economic and structural, welfare related in barriers to employment. Obviously, the big changes in the economy have had a major role in the story, but its also possible to overstate the role of structural changes. What i show in this graph is the rising proportion of men not in the workforce in this prime age group. But 1965 to the present. If you look at this line you couldnt tell when the recessions were when the boom times where are the best times were. Its almost as if its an astronomical gravitational change. We can also see other curious differences in the Labor Force Participation rate. We all know for example that less educated men have been much more hard hit a more educated men. What ive disaggregated here the blue line in grey lynn are both men without high school education, but the blue line are foreignborn and the gray line is nativeborn american men. The bottom has fallen out or nativeborn american men without high school degrees. Foreignborn american foreignborn College Dropouts in the United States at the same labor force profiles College Grads in the United States. One other curious thing to note with big regional disparities in our Labor Force Participation rate. Some of the big disparities are between neighboring state. New hampshire has one of the best profiles. Theres only one state by state order between maine and new hampshire. Weve seen increasing disparities by state grow over time. Its a curious thing. I wanted to point to the question of disability benefit. There is a lot of discussion of disability benefit and disagreement about the role of disability programs. Nobody can prove because they have created this problem. Nobody can show they have caused it. But i try to show what my book is disability programs have a role in financing this phenomenon and it had a growing role in financing this phenomenon. Indeed in 2013 by my estimates in this book, almost three and five not in labor force men were receiving one or more disability benefit, about an alien of the 7 million workers eating two or more disability benefit and about two thirds were in household that at least one disability benefit. And then crime has been all too largely overlooked as a problem with respect to the phenomenon. Since the 1980s weve seen an explosion in the number of felons to have a felon in the background now over 20 million. One in eight men. This is surely part of the problem but we dont collect figures very well. In my book, i show, i showed, i showed it to regardless of age, regardless of ethnic city, the practice of education, guys who have present record are much more likely to be out of the Labor Force Data guys who have just an arrest record who in turn are much more likely to be out of the labor force and guys who dont have any trouble with the law. I cant tell you about the dynamics here because shamefully our government does not collect statistics on this critical aspect of modern american society. But these factors all have to do with the terribly worrisome growth and nonworking male americans and our postwar era. 10 minutes . Excellent. So im very pleased to be here. I think its really important that nick is calling attention to this issue and doing so is the fact early as he has already, which of course is his trademark. I want to note for the record that i noticed this, too. This has to be the last story i did for the front page of the wall street journal in 2014. It was a very moving experience to talk to guys who were in this category. The spanish men, mostly too old to be in college, mostly too young to be retired. This is a guy named mark riley from little rock and i asked him what did he do every day. He said that the most meaningful day this week was working at this food bank, and a new shovel food bank. You can see they give out fresh fruit and vegetables. It gave some order to his life. It made him realize there are people worse off than had you got the leftovers. I want to make two points a bit in the week about what they say. First of all, we will talk about there is a widespread agreement that this is a problem. Jason furman of the council of economic advisers today report that coincides with the publication of the next book. Where theres a disagreement is about what is the nature of the costs. How much of this is supply . That is something about a man that needs than not to be interested or willing or capable of working and how much is about the demand and how much employers want them . Hes right you can draw a line, do you can also see a lot of ups and downs. Recently over the last 12 months in the Labor Force Participation rate has risen by about one percentage point. We know that its not immune to the health of the economy, but we also know from historical pattern that its not all about the economy. This is a demographic chart to make one point. Its great to focus on 25 to 54yearold man. But in that category of men 2554, they get older on average. If you look at the 3544yearold bracket with the highest Labor Force Participation, that represents less. So its really important to think about demographics and you do it. The 25 to 54 euros category takes care of most of it but not all of it. Whats going on . A couple observations. American manufacturing is change. We produce a lot of stuff. These were the jobs you can get with muscle and not brains. Its not very hard to get a factory job without some kind of education, some kind of computer skills. So theres something going on. That doesnt mean we will not come we dont want to bring back manufacturing for the 1950s. We have to think about how this affects prime age men. Secondly, when you look at the question about demand or supply, you can ask this question. If there was a shortage of unskilled men willing to work, their wages would be going up. What do we see . These are High School Grads to college pages. You can see relative to college rages, high school wages are going down. Thats part of the argument this is something about demand. To change the workplace in ways that do not ever lesser educated men that are more likely to be in this pool. Finally, i didnt realize what was going to show this incarceration thing is really important. Incarceration five education. If your High School Dropout at any rate, higher for blacks and whites are more likely to have had incarceration. These are people between i think these are people in their 30s. Most likely. So you can see they dont have skills and education at the Workforce Demand and a higher proportion have this advantage. Finally, i couldnt resist this war based on survey evidence he asked about these men who are not in the work for us about whether they were in pain and lots of them say they worry he peered this one shows whether they took pain medication. As you can see, the blue line as men. That rate minus the name. 43. 5 of the men who are not in the labor force had taken pain medication the previous day. Two thirds of that prescription drug. So as nick said, we dont know what his cause and effect, but we know from the work that theres something going on, opioid addiction with white workingclass men and it cant be any accident here that we see this pattern more likely to be unpaid med, whether to cause you not to work or because youre not working then if you were in the labor force. Ill leave it there. I want to remind people watching online think you can send a question to sli. Do and answer the code is aei event. You can send a question and if i can remember to look at the ipad i might answer them. Nick, lets talk about the supply and demand thing. Why do you think it is so much more supply than say jason furman . I guess they think it is more supply dave jay said the cda. By the way, they deserve a huge so that for putting this on washingtons agenda. There are very few in the administration of the congress who have done as much to put this on the agenda. It is really a question of the proportions, whether we talk about demand 70 per demand 40 . I tend to think that both the institutional barriers have been severely underestimated. This is the incarceration, felony, criminalization of a large proportion of american population. Obviously, mostly younger men. I think that has been severely underestimated in part because government kind of forgot to collect the information which would allow us to examine this. I think that the supply aspect has solved the bed to some degree understated our underestimated in the general meredith because i dont think most of the general work has actually taken to comprehend the book at the role of disability programs in the overall tableau. I can understand why theres an insert amount of oversight they are. We do not have any Central Government already to collect information on all of the crazy quilt of programs that we have in the disability area. That is why jasons excellent report, the cda brief court focus on one program in particular, asset vi. They concluded this maybe didnt have such a big role because only 28 of the men nod in late force were enrolled in not one program. I think when a show in my book is that the overall proportion is well over half. If you take into account ssi, veteran disability, other programs people report being apart of. Its a much bigger aspect. We get into questions about reservation wages and things like that as well. I think those are quite complex to research. Its quite complex to answer those in a rigorous way. I would say for the reasons that i mentioned already and for some other reasons i mentioned in the book as well in the notion this is overwhelmingly a demand problem meet some reexamination. Would use a supply problem, you need something that is keeping the skies are looking for jobs . We know in general a pool of 7 million men is pretty much everybody. We know over represented by men with lower education, africanamerican men, nativeborn american men and men who have never been married or dont have kids at home. Those are the overall patterns. There are some striking irregularities in the patterns. For example, if you are a black guy a black guy in your marriage can earmark likely to be in the labor force than a white guy who isnt married. So without respect, marriage trumps ethnicity. If you are foreignborn and you have no highest diploma, your profile looks like a college grad. So the nativity of our immigration trumps education in that particular case. There are enough of these irregularities to sit just that the motivational aspect may have been neglected and much of the work that is done so far. So i think the demand supply, which in some cases and if i double demand and contacts end quote some of these men off the sidelines but they also make them more to sue employers, your diagnosis to influence what you think the desired. So if you were thinking about how to attack those problems, what would you put on your list . Well, in the book, i am pretty light on policy prescriptions. In part because i dont want to be seen as trying to bigfoot is being. In my view, we need to have voices from all over the political spectrum come in from very different points of view so they can build a sustainable consensus having also is a different viewpoint that this is important, dont dedicate forgotten about. I suggest in this book three times at various investigation. One is trying to reinvigorate business and particularly smaller businesses for more job generation. I think that probably wins on its own merit. But i think as you know very much better than i from your work, we have added that Business Environment as 2007. More businesses closing and opening. That cant be good and all sorts of different ways. I suggest in the book that we should look out a serious overhaul of disability programs. Obviously we need to have some sort of disability guarantees and insurance. Thats why the programs i dare. We also want to make sure the unintended consequences of the programs arent enormous and perverse and i think we can argue they may be today. The sword of direction that i think we might talk about actually assigned to them that we. You heard it first here at aei guy talking. In sweden today, some of the aspects of their employment policies or workers. They are heavy on training a skilled. The incentive by showing up for job place. Incentive by showing up for work. If we take a look at the welfare reform in the night demand a summit and ranchers that we say that was fairly successful. Someone can say eberstadt, you, dont you realize that a good economy in the 90s that is out. Fair enough, but theres been very interesting work done in brookings papers on the parsing of the impact of the welfare reform in the macroeconomic environment according to some of that work was actually rather smaller part in the change in 10 days. The last part i emphasize is its just a scandal that we dont collect data on the social and economics are consensus that the 20 million americans who have got some sort of a felony in their past, but are not behind bars. If we are a forgiving society unity we are, i hope we are, part of what we should want to be doing his feet. Not how we can get these exfelons back into the economy and back into the society. We cant have evidencebased is unless we have the evidence. That also is absolutely critical for the future. I think there is the beginning of some Research Agenda on this felony thing in them inside and outside the government. That is one im sure you would agree theres been an enormous focus, bipartisan related that we realized that has consequences that are not proceed with tight but so many people. You do agree that we can wiggle around the line with demand. If we had a stronger economy with more job creation, more people would be working. On the disability, i think that theres been a lot of discussion about reform of the disability. Not all of it has worked first. Should we find a way to give employers and anticipate key people on the job rather than put them on disability . Where the system was to go on disability we discourage people when they apply for disability from it and looking for a job because if you look for a job while you apply this to you dont need it. Thats another area partly because of the ssdi trust fund on the edge that theres been some work. Although, the work and recommendations are necessary, but clearly not sufficient. Somebody wrote in a question i hear a lot, which is that these guys pushed into the job market because the women are coming in . Between a 48 and the year 2000 in response to this absolutely critical question, the work great for america as a whole grows. As the work great for american women soared. What this means of course is american women were not displacing that. They were supplemented by. It was a winwin situation. What we have seen since the year 2000 is a course of parallel decline for men and women. So i dont think its an either or with women eating then flinches as we sometimes hear his certain circles. Its been a pretty grim economy for working women over the last 15 or 16 years. Labor force Participation Rate of a veteran in the steadily until the late 90s to level off. I was talking in particular about the work great, but thats also true about the Labor Force Participation rate. When you look at the chart with lots of different colors, what do you make of the fact and what conclusion do you draw to have a more severe problem here . Almost every society almost every affluent industrial he has seen a decline in Labor Force Participation rate or primates guys over the last two years. That seems to be worldwide. We have suffered a much more severe decline in any other industrial do not see. I wouldnt say thats because we are necessarily more globalized or we are necessarily more out sourced although maybe we could prove that we are. If we take a look at other countries than it taking off the top of my head to sweden and france and australia, they are just about identical declines in their proportion of manufacturing jobs over a period from 1970 to the present. We are the countries that have the most is mold record with the exit of man from the labor force altogether. Certainly its logical and making quite evident that the big structural change in manufacturing is part of this problem. But i dont take it explained by the United States ended up at the bottom of the barrel. Theres a couple possibilities. One is their policies other countries use that we dont. This is actually optimistic. We also know the gap between wages at the top of the bottom have waited more than other places so it can be found at the notion that pages that bottom are so unattractive that not enough to get guys out the catch. Absolutely. Of course, measuring the impact of wages at the very lowest level, the minimum wage level gets to be a little bit or complex because of the various social benefits trying to calculate the exact takehome in effect is a little bit more complicated. But as a general proposition for sure. To show the interest in chartist is rarities among the states. Is that more of a question than a hypothesis . Here is one of deceptive ingredients i think it can and does thought, at least to my eyes. One of the things we know about a disability benefit as opposed to some other source of benefits is that they made ted to tie you to your locality is also true with snap another source of benefit. It is that these worth considering but that the nature of the social benefit program and have a perverse effect of helping to test their people to environment when they were better served through mobility. Certainly it was a case whether the social welfare is under effect or not. Geographic mobility has plummeted in the United States for the past 35 years. That in itself is consistent with the big increases i big increases by thinking disparities between the states. Theres nothing to stop you from taking her ssdi for veteran benefits. The maybe differences i think because they are administrative at the local level there is a certain amount of carriers to start up and so forth they are because they are administered in the local manner. I suppose you could also look at questions of wages at the bottom of whether there is a difference. So did the change is to the welfare system in the 90s, all the requirements of work, would that have had much impact on the behavior of these primates bad . Well, in many teen 90s they wouldnt have had getting it anyway. It was sort of, it was a sort of controlled experiment which mainly involved mothers of children of married men. One of the things he said important to point out to people as it would be nice if there are bunch of men who decided not to work and decided not to stay home and cook and clean because their wives had such good jobs. But he seems to me in your book you point out two things. First of all, these men who arent in the labor force are looking for work dont tend to be married anyway perhaps because he dont make a very attractive husband if you have no job and no income. Secondly, the time these studies dont show that these guys are spending a lot more time than chores around the house. There really is to the extent you can trust the stories a lot of screen time and a younger man in video games about older men on tv. The stories dont hold up very well. Of course they think of as dr. Gregory house and he told us that everybody is a liar. If you take a look at these surveys and how bad is your first kind of goes to, the picture is pretty dispiriting. As you say, theres not a lot of civil society. Theres not even a lot of help around the house. There is a lot of sitting and watching and what is called socializing, relaxing in my chair. One of the things which is really noteworthy about the u. S. Labor market in the postwar era is the large number of people who left the labor market for a number of years and then returned successfully later run. Those the ballots of people are generally called women and most of them were probably called mothers. Whatever else you say about a mother who is at home, she is almost never idle. She has to be dependable. She has to be there. There are no sick days. You have to keep a schedule. All of these certain things, if you look at advanced skills are the sorts of things that employers tend to like in their employees. We have to ask the question about what happens to the guys in the Sneaker Companies are in education, employment or training after a year or two ive been out of the labor force, how do employers look at them and their skills . Your solution in march that we want to tweet the benefit programs to create more incentives for work. You had not against trying to run a harder economy are raising the wages of people at the bottom, big or little skip to call about whether that is really the bulk of the problem. Yeah, it did but its fair to say. Mainly what im trying to say it the end of this book is that its important for people with ulcerative different policy agendas to come into the Public Square and to agree with one another that we need to shine a spotlight on this. We can duke it out in the world of empirical effects to see what actually works and doesnt work. But if we let this problems it back into the shadows, it is going to certainly continue and i think weve got all sorts of reasons to worry its going to get even worse than this. What are the consequences for not getting any better . Well, lets see. Though Economic Growth. Widening wealth in an un disparities. Greater government dependence, bigger budget deficits, big eared bat. More pressure on fragile families. Less social mobility, bless social capital. Weaker civil society. May be more opioid addiction. May be more opiate addiction. I myself will not connect these dots, but its possible to talk about increasing political extremism in the United States. Its hard for me to figure out what his cause and effect here. If you lost your job, you cant get another one. He didnt look very hard. Moving is hard. You get discouraged. You get angry. You may become one of their supplyside stories, but it started with you last or shot. On the other hand, we have all of these guys who basically never a solid job, who has found some way to get by but she now for the emily were but after and that leads to make event is to employers. Its hard for me to tease out. Its hard for me then say which one of these as a consequence of not having a job. I take your point. But this is why we need to make this a bipartisan or if you have been on the party send point of concern and why we cant forget about it in three months or in a year when the economy seems to be going tepidly well. Is a question back there. I think there is a microphone so they can help you be sure to tell us who you are and remember that it would be good to ask a question. Router with international investor. Thanks very much. This is great insight. Seven figures weve been seeing, not just the lowest educated, but also College Education at least mail from the primates are starting to have increasing problems relocating in finding jobs. My specific question is have you looked at the other interesting figure weve seen is the number of jobs and even careers that the average person will go through by the time they reached the end of their working age life. We understand that there is a name gracing the number of jobs. Some of the kittitas job mobility. But theres a kittitas insecurity. Did you look at it all in terms of how many times people are forced to change jobs or do so willingly over the course of the career . We think its a measure of more than stability. In my study, ive got a chapter, chapter five which looks at the demography of fbi working american men. Mainly this group of 7 million between the ages of 25 and 54 were either working or looking for work. Interestingly enough, the High School Dropouts at home for a disproportionate share of this group, but they still only account for about one fifth. Guys of all backgrounds with some college or more, with at least a Little College or maybe more than a Little College account for not quite half, but over 40 . So its a nontrivial aspect of this greater phenomenon. I mean, i think that there is a fair amount of work that has been done at a suggesting actually that the churning in the labor market has been going down, not up and that the decline may actually be sent in that we need to be a little bit worried about. I think thats right. I think it is true that watching globalization are changing over the peoples lifetime. There are people whose jobs they could no longer do the job they did because the job has changed. On the macro level, there is less of people moving, changing jobs than there was then that is one of the explanations economist said on the productivity growth. Somebody wrote in and asked about whether you did this summer that the people who may be one satisfactory or bluecollar construction job to go work in a walmart or nursing home that theres some selfrespect or statement associated with that part of it. Thats a very good question. Im not sure that i can answer this question. I think that we need a poet laureate monicagate events or somebody like that who can get some of that humanity in this great saga to describe this better. What i can tell you from looking at the statistics is that only about one in seven of this army of 7 million they report that they are out of the labor force because they could not find a job. Excited seven give up their reason. A lot of the reasons or disability. David described some of the truly grand new findings about pain pills. I mean, division of people sitting in front of screens on pain pills all day is really pretty but parity. Gentleman in the back. Twopoint question as it relates to remedies for this. It has been shown through several studies that if employers were to hire for his skill as opposed to credential, they would probably be a 30 increase particularly among underrepresented minorities and the workforce. My question to you is twofold. One, which you advocate possibly a discussion of amending the Civil Rights Act of the four to prohibit discrimination in employment based on credentials. Secondly, at what point in time do you think that project area becomes a Homeland Security threat . Nice easy question. So im a bit out of my depth in dealing with the Civil Rights Act. When i think about discrimination in against minorities, the first thing i think of to this study has to do with the felony background in criminal record and the over representation of some minorities. I dont think that we actually know as much as they need to about why people have a sword in their paths arent in the labor force as much as they think they should be. Is it because people the skills while they are said to have trouble with the law with the sort of people who tend not to look for. We could know a lot more about that than we do. If the government were to collect data on this rather than us to rely upon a couple surveys but we do know an awful lot more. As to when this becomes a sort of a crisis that our policing authorities have to Pay Attention to, i would submit your guess is that these as good as mine. Davis ergo it in a direction which does not look at all good. Larry summers in a blog that is a couple weeks ago just extrapolated the line out to the 2040s and 2050s. I dont know what to do that, but if you do that, youve got a really spooky twotier society stares you in the face. Can erase your head. Behind it. Wave your head. Bob samuelson, washington post. How are these guys supporting themselves . Disability programs are rid of her . Where did they get their meals every day . Ive got a chapter of this book, Chapter Eight which tries to parse some of that now. I dont think im totally successful because i dont think that the census euros, cps statistics fully reflect the benefit the people around the country are getting. Its not a crime. Cps also winter represents Capital Gains and things like that. As far as i can make out from looking at the income and spending statistics which are done by census on the one hand in the bureau of labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure survey on the other hand, it is to some degree moonlighting. That is not a major source of income. Above that his government benefits, disability benefits and means tested benefits. And about that, relying upon the resources of your family, friends, go for a period when it comes to actual spending patterns, nonworking man and that includes the unemployed. Unfortunately we cant parse out the im working on the unemployed are difference being unemployed unemployed youre out a job looking for work as opposed to that of a job not looking forward. Three quarters of the guys are in the latter category so is predominantly an end. Their spending patterns not surprisingly i lower than the national average. Interestingly enough they are not in the bottom quintile of spending for america. They are in the next quintile, the second quintile. They are not living like kings, but they are not at the bottom. Whos at the bottom . Single mothers, femaleheaded households. The guys in this group are more or less ironically in the spending strata and, the Living Standards of strata, which one day long ago we might have attributed to the working class. Im sure youd agree we have to take all these members all these numbers with a great deal of skepticism and its the kind of question that is probably best answered not by responses to the Consumer Expenditure survey, but that much for a sociological and technological living in the community and interviewing people. Im so glad you mentioned that. About a mile from here, back in the six days, there was an anthropologist named elliot lipo who did a beautiful ethnography study about black washington called thales corner. It has been stood the test of time and in all series of qualitative ways to get that things that people just cant cannot with statistics and comments and decimal points. We need to have a whole bunch of elliot lee does go out and give us the Human Dimensions of this crisis we have in america today. Take a couple questions or the woman in the back and then a couple appear in the red. I would take all three of you. Will take more questions and decide which one he wants to answer. Was that i commend the National Organization of claimants representatives and i have two very good questions. One is to mention the impact incarceration has on participation in labor force. Did you take a look at the over representation of people with disabilities. For example, 40 say people who are incarcerated also have a disability. The overlap of those could be telling us what the story is that the sack of money that could make International Comparisons and were doing much worse than do take a look at the fact that men at their countries who become unemployed have access to better job training, access to universal health care, universal access to Longterm Services and supports in rehabilitation bacchanal been maintained labor force attachment. And we dont care. Im going to get these three guys to ask a question. The microphone over here. Guy in the blue shirt, raise your hand. Hayek, im andrew hero but dias admits to two. A couple of comment and questions. The first in this whole supply versus demand argument, supplied in a way could be read as culture and seeing the pew and other surveys that will show that it showed that women are willing to take jobs that men wont take. Some of that may be wages. Women are willing to take bad shots that men might not take which youve alluded to before. Perhaps some of that can be patented with higher wages. But id be interested in your thoughts as to what extent this is part of a larger cultural failing then kind of problem. We talk about failing boys in schools, Lower College participation. You look at the 2554 prime age. Of course once you get to older men, use the increased Labor Force Participation and id be interested in what you make of that era i am steve powell. Sinai means china and i dont see a lot of these problems in china. Go into this gentlemans comment about enabling people to be unemployed and not look for work, they are supported by families and the government. Has there been any research on the effect of getting these men to return to the workforce and their subsidies in the government has been reduced or cut out. Thats a good segue. Has there been any thought to whether universal basic income policy would have on this . The first one was their overlap between people being incarcerated in a disability . I argue in this book this is something we desperately need to know about. We dont have nearly as much information as we should. When we talk about men who were not in the labor force, government statistics dont count people who are incarcerated. Its a civilian on his edition population. At this point, 10 times as many people have felonies that large an society. Okay, so other countries that different and often bigger social safety net for active labor market policies. Is that one reason why they are doing better than we are . I think is certainly some aspects of that are involved. Certainly you can make a case that training policies and policies in particular countries which are involved in trying to people skills to get people back in the labor market. Those things they think are very much worth looking not. One difference is that it is more characteristic and European Countries to have larger unemployed populations in the United States whereas we have people who are not in the labor force at all yet many European Countries tend to have a shift towards more unemployed that nonlabor force. You think its better . Theres an advantage to people who see themselves unemployed or at least going through the motions and not been in the labor force. One can make that argument. People disagree about that. But thats an argument. Is this just one more symptom at more symptom at the end of manners . The type inc. If you take a look into the pool of him working, you do see different sorts of motivational or is called values, aspirations. I think its really meaningful that you have such a difference with respect to family structure, with respect to people who are married are making different choices from people not married in very large numbers and probabilities. Likewise, people who take the risk of coming to the United States are making very different sorts of calculations from people born here. I guess im not spengler and. I think theres probably a lot more hope than just saying that as culture. Of course the other thing is when thing is once you say its all culture thats kind of like well we cant talk about that. I think we can talk about this. What he think about the increase in Labor Participation of older man . Women, too. I think it difficult. Its really the single glimmer of sunshine that we see in the labor market over the past 25 years thats turning up for the 55 plus group. Its what should happen with the more educated ,com,com ma more healthy american population. May do it all guys turned 56. If you look at jason and the cea work on the cohort a cohort, we have to live in a lot of hope. There were two questions covering the event and questions. Should we cut the subsidy off to work. Wouldnt it be better off giving them universal one comes at least theyre not starting a rich enough relatives are breaking and . Hardhearted sim, i think weve got some other options from the total darwinian option. I think as ive mentioned if we were to overhaul programs to put incentives in place and also maybe even some help for training and for job placement, that might work even better than oliver twist. I think theres all sorts of reasons to hope that this might be better