The middle east program at the wilson center. We are very happy to have with us Hassan Hassan the coauthor of isis inside the army. He is based in abu dhabi. Here is that a couple of things straight. Very happy to host and end his book appeared on the New York Times bestseller list. Yesterday was number nine. I did not check it this morning. Today we will get a firsthand report in what is going on on the ground and the history of the movement. Thank you very much. I would like to talk of the talk would be sort of a few snapshots. That is how to understand isis and where it comes from. In the 1990s the second is the iraq war and the arab spring. And the 1990s two very interesting trends happened in iraq after it the first gulf war and the sanctions against the Saddam Hussein regime. The first one is Saddam Hussein integrated campaign the islamic faith campaign. What he did was to islam baptism, and a variety of measures to encourage people, he allowed baptists to study religion, go to mosques and so on. The mix that happened between baptism was a rare event to isis in terms of ideology. That as you all know is a fascist movement, a movement that relies on has a lot to do with isis as its ideology. Compared to this kind of militant nationalism that subjects everything and anyone to the overarching principle which is to achieve the unity of all arabs. It is a very Violent Group, ease in chile by definition a Violent Group, ideology, the history of baptism in iraq and syria Saddam Hussein did or will things to shiites and kurds using chemical weapons, on his people, attacked civilians. You know what they are doing today. Also his father did this same thing. The track record of baptism is all violent from day 1 until today. When Saddam Hussein islamized this ideology you get a dangerous mix, maybe unintentionally, after the first gulf war, there was the shiite revolt in the south against his rule so he subjugated aloft and use that campaign to kind of encourage, legitimize his regime. What happened is a lot of baathists abandoned it and took on stalinism which is a more in big rating, pure, they have a lot of similarities that the end of his regime started to have a problem with islamists and the lot went to afghanistan or elsewhere and he had a lot of problems with verizon some of this trend. That is the first thing that happened. The underground Financial Network to circumvent the sanctions, started to rely on this kind of underground smuggling, different ways of making money and working with other countries beyond the iraqi borders. That campaign or that kind of network that was created by Saddam Hussein is exactly the kind of network basis uses today to circumvent air strikes make sure that it can survive the black market and in syria and iraq, these are two important things that originate in the 1990s relevant to the period day. After the iraq war, the second snapshot after the iraq war, the iraq war caused sudanese to feel they had lost power so they are in a minority, arabs are a minority in iraq. They felt they no longer are in control. They felt the americans were conspiring with the shiites and kurds and even with iran to takeover and there are indications that these looking for these conspiratorial thinking because the first elections happened after the americans hand over power to the iraqis. Sunnis loss control. So there was a sense they were losing power, and a movement dedicated to the restoration of sunni domination in iraq. That meant you have a Strange Alliance the looks strange between baathists and local forces. A lot of people we spoke with a lot of people who interviewed these people in the beginning and we are not fighting because of Saddam Hussein. It was sunni in the sense of local communities not in a sectarian a sense, in the strict sense of the word. Come to the stage zarqawi, jordanian jihadists with a long history of fighting like this jihad the proximities in jordan and beyond jordan. In the 1980s he went to afghanistan to join the mujahedin. What happens was immediately there was a strange encounter between Osama Bin Laden and zarqawi, there were differences between them in terms of what jihad means, and why we wage jihad. Osama bin laden and mohammad zarqawis differences shaped and defined the differences between al qaeda and isis today. At a time Osama Bin Laden or al qaeda generally sees its mission, the name al qaeda, they think their mission is to set an example for all muslims to jo lin king this jihadis movement so they want to trigger, repeat the word we are a trigger we want to popularize jihad and encourage all muslims to join us in jihad. On the other hand Osama Bin Laden was more focused on shia. He thinks the enemies of islam are she at and this is what we have, this is why the Ottoman Empire fell, because of that before that all the movements in islamic history were always challenged by the shia. Pcs she at as the existential threat that has always existed and has to be dealt with. Osama bin laden thinks the enemy is the west and al qaeda focuses on the west only to encourage people based on concerns and for example in syriac, affiliates of al qaeda focusing on winning hearts and minds, never until recently tried to impose itself or its ideology on the people so they provide services and do this stuff because they want to encourage people to like the mint in the beginning didnt want to announce they were part of al qaeda because they to shake peoples attitudes and in the beginning they wanted to say they were at syrian group. So zarqawi went to iraq after the iraq war and the debate and decision about shia to slowly shape the discourse. Iraq, sunnis and shia have always interacted after and the iraq war things started to change. And theres a huge opportunity in that and there were a lot of differences between al qaeda and zarqawi at the time and although he pledged allegiance to Osama Bin Laden there was tension between the two until al qaeda started to publicly admonish his stop attacking persius civilians and focus on the government and the americans and then he had his way later on, he destroyed bombed the mosque that triggered the iraqi civil war and things started to become more sectarian. His vision, combined with a dangerous mix between baathist and sectarianism the triangle of terror, very dangerous ingredients coming together, merging together to form this group we have today, isis. That is why you have isis, very violent, very fascist, very sectarian, rigid in if everything because that is the background. After the arab spring, isis benefited like a lot of factors to grow into this state. After the arab spring it found itself with a lot of opportunities, power vacuum collapsing states, week states and isis apply all its skills and intelligence and security skills to present itself and pose itself and become a reality on the ground in both countries. The benefit for example, benefit from a trend, isis, a lot of people tried to portray it as the Violent Group but it has a lot to do with trends in the region. The trends another trend, our young people when they revolted against the government they revolted against twoes, the political elite and the religious elite and isis is about rebellion against political enemies and religious elite so it is very anti clerical in that sense. There is an arabic word people use to describe attitudes of young people which is rejection of intellectual law l. A. Intellectual mandate or intellectual control. Anytime theres a message against isis, and this messaging, and matter it this course, isis is immune to that going to isis before that, once someone starts to buy into isis ideology is almost too late to reverse it. I spoke to someone in turkey, a journalist called the defector. He was leaving isis a work permit to work in saudi arabia, and tried to fix this before he goes to saudi arabia. I met him and expected him to be critical of isis but he was defending isis, he said i am tired, this is not for me, i cant take it, it is too file and but he never said anything bad about isis. I am convinced when people julian isis and say they have abandoned the group theyre most likely either lying or have never been with isis. Generally speaking more broadly speaking. That is one of the things isis shares with the arab spring. Not values but trends and isis has benefited from a variety of things. I refer to more questions from you and then i can answer them. Let me ask you the first question which is on everybodys mind. Can isis be defeated . It is possible to defeat isis but i see it in the region for at least another 15 years. Isis might you can look at isis in two ways. Isis as we see it today, as a group that operates an army insurgency, as the terror group, will exist for around a decade from now. Five years to a decade. As the group that exists and has some kind of in iraq and syria and beyond, it will continue to operates, become a global kind of inspiration for jihadis and actually won of the fascinating things about isis today is people dont see that there is an Emergency School that has an established is it hasnt been established yet, it doesnt have ideologues who are very wellestablished. They have not legacy of jihad, egypt, syria until today. And ideologues and ideas and books and so on. Would because of that i dont see isis disappear anytime soon at least in that sense. As an insurgency i think if i am optimistic probably five years. Thank you for that very interesting presentation. Yesterday i had lunch with the Indonesian Ambassador to the u. S. Who reminded me that indonesia is the largest Muslim Country in the world, it has 250 Million People more or less 80 of whom are muslim, many senior members of the government are muslim and it is a peaceful democracy. My question is is this the only example or is this an important example of an alternative muslim idea . And could it somehow be considered and use in a more effective way as a counter to isis . Isis flies on weak states, indonesia, malaysia southeast asia, they have a legacy of good governance. Whenever you find Good Government isis cannot gain ground because isis is the political project. As much as it is a religious project but the two come together. So you have a political background, you are restrained by local politics and by your government in politics that you have to have a religious background that believes in the very narrow world view about who is muslim, what a muslim should be. Lets look at these two backgrounds. Sometimes people say isis is islamic. The fact is it is both. See how the street to backgrounds emerge. You mix the two and produced and isis numbers. You might have people sympathize and put isis in indonesia but they join isis i think to nietzsche, there are 4,000 tunisian jihadists in iraq and syria but they havent announced a province in tunisia. They did the same thing in libya as though they dont have as many in libya because libya, there is no state. It has collapsed. In tunisia the population is more condensed. It still offers hope for people because states dont have a threat with isis, in tunisia in terms of tolerance and so on but basis does not present a fret theyre so it is about a state being present and good governance. Just to make the point of part of the answer is to defeat isil have a strong government even with a majority muslim population. And places like indonesia, to need and others are much less susceptible to their messages because of that. Isis might have sympathy in damascus but damascus was held by the government in damascus. Isis operates in a different way sometimes. All lots of isis members dont say they are isis members. If you dont have a lot of jihad is a man to nietzsche that does not mean they dont have a problem. They might have a problem. It depends on how isis shares in the future. I think isis continues to exist, prove to be resilient it will continue to grow. The first target is jihadis sympathizers in north africa at. They dont have they think their interest is still with al qaeda. Quince isis established itself not only as a Resilient Group but asonce isis established itself not only as a Resilient Group but as an ideology, established ideology and the Financial Model it might gain ground in north africa and different parts of the world. The process of isis growth is still on, still growing. I dont think it is being defeated as you hear in the headlines. Isis has been contained in some parts of iraq and syria. They have been rolled back in areas. They were targeting kurds in kurdish territory and she at inside she a territory. Now they rollback to other areas but the heartland in tikrit have not been threatened by any internal or external challenges and that wont happen. If you look at iraq you dont know what is going on. That is an indication when you have a blackout, an area that is an indication that isis is so entrenched, any potential rivalry and activist operating in these areas any tribal shape that might potentially be a threat to isis if there is an intellectual living in isis areas and has not pledged allegiance to isis they are marked as a threat and they watch them very closely and they are slowly and surely making good use of their time to build the project and make sure it is sustainable, to make sure isis is immune from rebellion in these areas so theres a situation favoring isis so far. Let me ask you one more question. We have a lot of questions from the overflow. In your book you write isis is not a terrorist organization but a mafia dealing in oil and trafficking to. How do they do that . Is that because they take over do they sell them . The financing . Going back to the question of Saddam Husseins reestablishing back in the 1990s, isis gets its money through a variety of ways. The two most important sources of its income were oil and what is stockpiled so when they conquered and new facilities they take a lot of weapons. In june last year when they forced three to american trained American EquipmentIraqi Security forces to drop their arms and run away, most of them in surrounding areas. They got billions worth of weapons, advanced weapons. One operation helped them go back to syria and offer new areas there had been resistance to isis presence since the beginning, like a social base in isis it was never successful. It is interesting because the province was one of the rare ones that isis did not have a social basis, Eastern Syria and the no. So you dont have locals, religion with isis and was mostly individuals here and there and foreigners trying to make a base for themselves. Isis struggles to gain ground and was defeated several times. The only ones that could infringe with the more powerful, this branch, the most powerful across syria. After the takeover of mosul prices went back and swept the arianna and within weeks took over and dismantle it no longer exists in syria. Because of the american weapons isis got from mosul. So that sort of income has been cut since the air strikes, they can no longer expand in other areas and get the money. The will, at 80 at least of the Oil Resources have been disrupted. So for example when syria was in trouble the army really good, they would try to convince the population tie they go to work or to share in the control. In general. So they would not try to impose themselves in the communities, local communities. They would try to now, a completely different story. Isis imposes its own rules and acts as a faith. So if someone gets money from the Syrian Government because he used to work as a municipality, worker isis borst that person to go to work, work, show up to work eight hours a day for five days a week. So someone owns a bakery, for example. Isis comes and asks the person, why you close your bakery. I dont bakery. I dont have money. Will provide you with the materials that you need, but even open the bakery and if you dont we confiscated from you. What happens usually is the person says, give me the flower kamal give you a share of the revenue and we operate that part of the bakery. Outside the bakery in making sure the line is straight, no one jumping the line and so on. Part of the propaganda not regulated by police. In the past syrian Traffic Police would receive a bribe there is no traffic rule. With isis everyone must respect the road. In transportation when the Free Syrian Army used to control the area someone is traveling change in syria or maybe the borders of iraq they would be stopped several times by the Free Syrian Army on the way and would be asked for a bribe. Isis would act. There was a checkpoint and they would document basically what the person is carrying. Stationary, you know whatever they write down and then the driver can drive. And then they stop him. Just give a document a document command that is it. A lot of people start to like this kind of new government body. At least they have rules and regulations. Law and order. Another important thing people can live under brutality. Isis messed up. That is how people see it. But if you mess with isis you are going to have dire consequences. You know what, i dont want to mess up with isis and compare the situation with the its a situation inside the regime area. You can be a target by a random shelling. Isis has never done that. People see. Shooting a bullet on the civilians. Destroy the village. David miller. Fascinating presentation. Argued that it requires defeating the idea of the caliphate. Limits to isis expansion and you try to accentuate the contradictions of governance failure to provide services conflicts between foreign fighters a lot of media reporting that isis is weakening. Anyway to evaluate and assess whether what is right in his initial analysis and whether or not these internal contradictions are actually appearing and are the significant . Thanks. Very important, and we have to every member has to comply with the ideology endorsed. The theory of radicalism. Excommunication of muslims the definition. So cannot say to other islamists. Pray five times a day and so on. Isis would not accept that as evidence. They need evidence that you are not in this believer. They have various different standards of labeling muslims as infidels. The ideology is very important. Every member must comply. No member kills without word from the cleric except on the battlefield. They have to comply. And they are not random, based on islamic references. I think this debate we are hearing today isis has nothing to do with islam a western debate there is a recognition that we have a problem as muslims. You follow newspapers and so on it is flooded the websites are flooded with articles written by islamic scholars who preach to religion. They talk about the problems we are facing. When isis barnes someone alive some are alive they do it because someone in the history of islam did it. And the caliphate going back to the early figures and islamic history closer to the revelation and therefore they have a better understanding of what islam is. So they do not always rely on the ground, although they do. They also rely on the stories and islamic history. Isis is immune to the messages. The establishment as illegitimate and also because they can find examples. Ill give you an example 1st. An early figures, very respective of the peace. He was 1st caliph commanderinchief. And there was a battle in what yesterday iraq between the muslim army and the persian army. During the battle the muslim army was being defeated, the persian army was strong and powerful. At some time the muslim army sorry, the commander promised god there is a word for it but if he defeats persian army he would equate the blood a river out of there blood. So eventually he is a savvy commander in defeats persian army and started to slaughter the people that tried to flee. The the trick for him was economic a river and to the blood. Basically needed to fund the solution. Made a place to god. He gets killed the captives. Is not the river. He did not think it through. At some. He released and get what he wanted. Isis consent that example. What they do is defer anyone who argues with them. Respected by muslims are sunnis. A sunni cleric was not there to argue. So that is a problem we have no one is talking about these things. When you criticize him as a sunni and awkward situation. Just wait for the mic please. It is coming. Thank you. I was interested in hearing more about the leadership. We know very little about him. It is striking that you have had organizations declaring allegiance to the supreme leader. I just i just wonder how do you assess the importance within the organization . What happens if the disappears replaceable. Curious to no your train of thought. I think everyone i could the king david of anyone and everyone the kind of keeps that core overtime. Have learned from the lessons. Resurrect again. Dispensable. Even if the council is killed they can replace them. Isis operates as a profoundly autonomous group. The top leaders are very loyal longstanding loyalists. Firm believers in the group. Insulated from the top leadership. The top leaders in the lower command but to ensure there is no infiltration and even if there is infiltration within the lower ranks they never have access to the higher midlevel or even higher ups. Organizationally everyone is dispensable. It has that double effect. So. To questions from the overflow. Briefly comment on financing that comes from the gulf state to isis and private funding. And also whether you see a different reading that would be able to counter isis at its core ideology. If there is such a thing. From the gulf states, isis benefits from chaos in terms of financial flaws finance going to syrians and financing syria up until the late 2012. Isis was still nonexistent at the time. Isi. But a lot of money was going through saudi arabia kuwait not from the government and not meant to go to jihadists, meant to go to mars group. Because of the lack of knowledge sometimes the money goes to someone you trust, and that person gives it to someone he trusts and then goes to groups. So there is that looseness that exists in these parts of the world. But government, on a government level golf states support isis. Even if iran does. They see it as a threat. Two sections within the society. The idea of the caliphate invigorating ideology of isis but also islamists who do not like isis sympathizers, but they do not like isis but they see it as a way to kind of break the region. I spoke to a lot of people who do not like the violence but they would say, you know what that this group were around and exist for a while. At least we will break this. So isis thrives in this climate. I think the problem is really not theology but credibility and legitimacy. Most of the clerical establishment as they are either aligned to the authoritarian regime or because they have lost credibility for a variety of other reasons. I think the trend that we saw that religious belief. A lot of people did not like the fact that there are authoritarian governments. The collapse of the clerical establishment the chance for everyone to kind of look for a more reformed islam is more tolerant and progressive and so on. But the group that sees this is isis, enlightened muslims do not seize the opportunity to the authority of clerics. Privatization of religious discourse but isis took over and basically ten. Wait for the mic. Here. Can you explain what exactly attracts young muslims even from western communities to join isis . In the book again we found six different categories or factors why people join. These factors range from pragmatism because they like government because of social rivalry. In syria when the revolution started there were certain families in Eastern Syria who joined the uprising from the beginning of this ideal that they are pro revolution. This social establishment. They find it very convenient but i think the three other factors. One is a political project, although people dont agree the religious discourse, but they agree with the political project. They drift toward isis because they find it a very viable Political Force that can change the situation, restore the nomination. And the other one like i told you, the longstanding radicals they believe in the ideology they believe in the ideology of isis and all its details. The other one i think this is the most dangerous and important category. Young people your toward because they find the ideology invigorating then listen to these clerics on the ground telling you about what isis is and how it can be part of this project that will restore the glory of islam. People who people who dont have islamic training drift toward isis through these kind of rhetoric. So they joined because they want to be adults top rebel against there parents. But they believe in the ideology. I spoke to parents their children disappeared from homes. When they when they start to argue with theyre children as you is 13 these children all of a sudden sound like adults, educated fight religiously. They know how to argue back. A lot of people half jokingly say i was almost convinced by my son. So there are different ways for westerners. It is different. They will go to areas usually detached from reality. They go there because they are they become less susceptible to the propaganda which is about the end of time and so on. I think that is where social media comes in handy because it can communicate messaging without people being distracted by fax on the ground. And a lot of people buy into this. Thank you. Just wait for the microphone please. Thank you for your insight. My question is regarding a desire to restore an era of glory. How much is how much is it a historical argument . And is religion a means to an end . If you find that it is still a religious argument why islam . Advocate fighting in the name of the. Let me add also something the way isis has been treating woman across the board, despicable and how do they justify, no matter the horror how narrow the interpretation of islam. It is a complicated question. You know like i told you they argue through religious references to justify anything that does and it has a rich source of literature legitimize. The interesting thing deliberately legitimate and clear islamic context they can easily refer to saudi penal code and justify a lot of things, but they do not do that. They dig deeper and find obscure teachings. People who historically have done [inaudible] like i told you, i told you, because isis considers early islamic figures as sources of authority, the authority of islam mainstream current that believe that the ancestors the three generations the 1st three generations are a source of authority, but you cannot rely on the crime. You have to rely on the interpretation. So in no way you can argue against cynicism. You get lost. You need to do a centurys worth of literature. As long as you start becoming disrupted by that, youre good. I think there is more attention to these problems. So they rely upon these to justify there acts. I understand what you are saying. They rely upon these events. They do not make the quran the priority. Less problems. Still have crucifixion cut off the hands of thieves but you dont have beheadings or burning people live in this kind of savagery. So they justify enslaving women. It is not an invention by isis. During times of work they would conquer an area. When isis and slaves basically in islam you can only take an offer three choices to question and jews the people of the book. When you conquer an area you can give them three choices. Convert, pay taxes, or be killed. They are not part of the people. They are considered double worth it to have dish to have devil worshipers and so i consider them as legitimate targets to enslave women, kill whales and expel the rest outside the area. It is basically ethnic cleansing or sectarian cleansing. So they just they can find justification. Why did you do that they would say immediately they refer to religion and can talk to you for hours about how is justified. To questions together please. And then. On the subject of ethnic cleansing the article professor miller talked about this is the possibility of genocide if isis takes over parts of significant shia populations. What do you think of the likelihood that isis could create wholesale slaughter of people that they declare otherwise not in compliance with what they see as proper worship . I i agree when you say that it is impossible to counteract and they are immune to moderate muslim discourse, but i discourse, but i come from france, a lot of young people joining isis how can one present this from happening . Prior to them being sensible to the discourse, and how do you suggest that . So, i think whatever it is expansionist, any area that isis controls, no one controls, no one can be tolerated unless they believe any ideology or are subjected. So it is impossible. They would have to be annihilated of these. It it is an existential threat to people who do not believe any ideology. Is that so how to counter, you know if i no the answer i would get a lot of money for. Like i told you it is almost too late whenever someone starts buying in the isis ideology and discourse. A lot of parents tell me that they were surprised that their sons joined isis. One of them i cite in the book the child used in application called yellow. If anyone is involved in prodemocracy activism it is useful in countries that in the middle east. The government cannot monitor the application. What it does basically is turns your smart phone or phone into a walkietalkie command you can start listening to sermons from isis and these territories and listen to them from your home. You do not have to have access to the internet or social media for that sort of thing. You know a personal note, i think i was writing the book and researched it and thought for my own son how can you make sure this person wont join groups like that. It becomes really hard to predict who will join isis. One last question from the audience. Is isis a threat for central asia . I am not an expert on central asia but i know a lot of central asians which from different countries. There is an area that is starkly to be controlled by muslims and that could be essential for the movement and people have tried to guilt them and isis might come there. Thank you very much. Our time is up. [applause] we will be signing books outside. Booktv is on twitter follow us to get publishing news updates and to