Politics, the daily life, the challenges relating to the gaza strip. This event is the latest in meis george and Rhonda Salem Family Foundation series. Mr. George salem will be with us soon, i suppose. We are not relatives, although were both salems, but were distant cousins, perhaps. This event today is being live streamed from our web site, and i think also cspan3 is covering it as well. Itll also be available later as a video or a podcast from our web site as well. Because its being recorded and just for, you know, general decorum, please put your phones on silent. That are available at the front desk where you signed in. Were looking today at the critical political and humanitarian situation in gaza. A lot going on in and around the gaza issue. Tensions between the Palestinian Authority and in the movement itself shifts in the gulf involving saudi, uae, possibly impacting the situation in gaza. Gaza has been under a blockade for almost a decade now. Things have recently gotten worse as the Palestinian Authority also is reducing salary payments and sort of asking that electricity get in, a lot of issues impacting gaza strip very direly in the situation. Part of our discussion today is not only to ask how the International Community can help mitigate current suffering, but how do we bring gaza back into regional deliberations into some kind of a political process. And how does one avoid dynamics that some scholars, may be some on the stand are warning could raise the risk of war again after the last war in 2014, which was very, very devastating on the gaza strip, also led to loss of life among israelis. We certainly want to avoid another conflagration of that kind. Were very fortunate and pleased to have a very excellent panel with us today. You have their full bios in the packets you picked up. Ill introduce them before entering into discussion with them. Immediately to my right is a fellow currently based in new york. Hes with the palestinian policy network. Think tank without borders to educate and foster debate within the frame work of International Law. To my extreme left is lara friedman, president of the foundation for middle east peace, wellknown, i believe, to many of you, expert on congressional views, u. S. Executive Branch Policy towards israel and palestinian and israeli thinking as well. She previously was with americans for peace now and served with distinction in the middle east as u. S. Foreign service officer. To my immediate left is mr. Christopher mcgrath. Hes the acting director of Washington Office of United Nations relief at work agency which has approximately 12,500 staff in over 300 installations across the gaza strip. Education, health, Mental Health and microcredit. And Emergency Assistance to Palestinian Refugees in gaza and elsewhere. And to my extreme right is mr. Natten natan sachs. He held fellowships and is writing a book on israeli grand strategy and domestic origin. I will engage our panelists in discussion for a while and questions for you and well close promptly at 1 30 today. Chris, let me start with you, if you could paint a picture of the current humanitarian and perhaps Economic Situation on the ground and in gaza and also paint a picture what are the aid flows which are obstructed and which are proceeding and how would you sort of describe the situation since the conflict of 2014. I know theres been a u. N. Report gaza 2020, and amendments to that. Start off with a picture how you see things today there. Ill be happy to. Thank you for hosting this today. And in 2012 released a report gaza 2020 a livable place question mark. Let me share a quote. Year 2020 population of gaza will increase to around 2. 1 million. Were already at that number and its only 2017. Fundamental structure and electricity. Water and sanitation, municipal and social services, its struggling to keep pace with the needs of the growing population. By 2020, electricity provisions will need to double to meet demands. Damage to the coastal aquifer will be irreversible and hundreds of expanded schools and Health Services for an overwhelmingly young population. Since 2012 there have been continued dedevelopment in the gaza strip and conflict in 2014. During the 2014 conflict there we had 290,000 civilians sheltering in schools. 86,000 refugee homes were damaged, including 7,000 that were completely destroyed and 5,000 that had major damage to them. And tens of thousands of people still remain displaced from that. In addition, there was severe psychosocial distress particularly on the children. When we reopened the schools virtually 100 of the children suffered some signs of ptsd. As i mentioned, a significantly dedevelopment since 2012, rather than development, going the wrong direction. Ive gone to gaza frequently and the last times weve gone there weve seen more donkeys on the streets and going backwards. And perhaps troubling, unemployment for youth to 25 is 60 . Drugs, disposables, electricity as everybody has heard lately. On the current electricity crisis, blackouts are running about 20 to 22 hours a day. That really disrupts peoples daily lives and put that in perspective. Families in gaza may have electricity for as long as the Panel Discussion will take place today what we see is families getting up at all hours of the day whenever they have electricity to scramble to get everything done that they need electricity for. The more than 90 of the tap water is undrinkable for humans and desalization plants are only 50 capacity. More than 100 million liters of raw and partially treated sewage are pumped into the ocean every day equivalent of 40 olympic size swimming pools per day of raw sewage going into the ocean. As you mentioned there was an update to the report, the u. N. Put out an update a few weeks ago to the 2020 report and again, i want to read one portion of it here. This report underscores that most of the earlier projections for 2020 have deteriorated further and faster than anticipated in 2012. Reap gdp per capita decreased and Health Care Service continued to decline and doctors and hospital beds have not been met thanks in large part to the services, gaza maintained High Education standard, but class time remains as low as four hours per day. Gazas only water source is expected to be irreversibly depleted by 2020. And those by the 2014 is triggered increased imports to Construction Materials to gaza however access to material needed to allow the gaza economy, infrastructure, basic services to recover and expand has been highly restricted. So the question that everybody asks is what can be done at this point and how can that be reversed, this trend. The u. S. Has been asking all actors including israel, pa, and International Community to invest in sustainable investment. And revitalize the economy and freedom of movement for people and goods both in and out of gaza and just sort of turn to something that robert piper, the u. N. Humanitarian coordinator said, the alternative will be a gaza thats more isolated and desperate. Threat of renewed devastating increase, and prospects will dwindle and with them the prospects for peace between israel and palestinian. Thank you very much, chris. Ask you a number followup questions. The first of all, what is the funding situation, given youre probably the main source there and secondly used to be, maybe still has been a contributor and so on, are the europeans there in force, talking humanitarian and thirdly, what are the current pathways . There used to be a lot coming from the tunnels, from the sinai, most are largely closed. What is getting through so three questions if i may. Sure, ill take them on order. On the funding situation as you know, always has a major funding problem. This year, at this moment were facing a deficit of 126. 5 Million Dollars on a budget of about 750, 15 million per year so quite substantial. We are working to make that budget deficit up and we also expect the next several years to have similar deficits. Weve calculated that we have roughly a 100 Million Dollar structural deficit that we face every year and thats what we need to overcome now. As you know, the United States is still the largest contributor representing 22 of overall funding for the agency. In terms of the other donors, we do have quite a bit of support from the gulf countries. We have support from European Union and european country. To u n. R. A. The european is usually number two contributor and European Countries whether theyre part of that or not given to unra. The imports as you noted, there used to be the economy, and u. N. Never engaged in tunnel economy business and none of that was done through the tunnels. From the unra. The materials that we need for construction or food items or whatever it may be, we have a very sophisticated system that we work with israel on in order to facilitate that so we dont generally have that there. And so many things having a secondary use. Generally food stuffs are able to come in, but most people are unemployed and cant afford to buy items. Exports is the major hindrance near because gaza is traditionally a manufacturing, you know, economy, and they export their goods, furniture, clothing, whenever it may be. Vegetables and fruits. Without being able to export. The jobs arent there. Without the exports the economy is going to suffer. And on the you answered as to other donors, but does qatar, turkey, others have aid programs they run themselves or provide to gaza . Yes, there are. They are other u. N. Agencies operating in gaza. We happen to be the biggest because of the scope of our activities, but eu and qatar and others give to the u. N. And for construction and assistance to the people and support the defacto government there. Thank you, chris. Let me turn to you. Help me understand had the complicated politics between hamas and then between the people and hamas itself. Walk us through whats going on politically. Why is it hes doing the things he is doing . Is he shifting . How does this play out politically. Thank you for hosting this panel. Ill try to go through a Chronological Order how things have been happening the past six months or so to try to give some context to where we are today. Bring your microphone closer. Can everyone hear me . Okay. So a great deal of attention was given to gaza after the electricity crisis that happened about a month ago, but that was the result of a decision that had been taken by president abbas on the west bank and it followed from a number of decisions that president abbas has taken from the beginning of the year. So some of the decisions that president abbas took included things like imports of medical supplies into the gaza strip and cutting the salaries of pa employees, employees of the Palestinian Authority that are present in the gaza strip rather than the west bank. Part of the decision for president Mahmoud Abbas with concerns allegedly that the pa has a budget deficit and is attempting to control parents of salaries which forms a big part of the budget. The fact that the policies that president abbas was taken were focused on the gaza strip showed a concerted effort on his part to increase activation off the gaza strip and pressure on the hamas government within gaza. The third step that president abbas took, asked israel to stop or said he would stop making payments for Electricity Supply that israel gets to the gaza strip. The combination of three steps resulted in a significant escalation of the humanitarian crisis in the gaza strip, the latest of which was the electrici electricity. And why is president abbas doing that at the moment. There are local dynamics and International Dynamics and regional dynamics, unfold are for at least the past four years, but most notably since 2014 and since the war between hamas and israel. Immediately, instead of immediate contact in january, was the entry of the new american president in the u. S. President trump has already showed signs of wanting to have policies that would produce the ultimate deal between israel and the palestinians and was positioning himself as someone who could provide that deal. There was also a sense coming from the American Administration, coming to us that there would be some regional dynamics that would evolve or change noticeably between americas premier allies, quote, unquote, and islamic extremists and countries that support quote, unquote, movements. With american with an american policy shifting under the Trump Administration, president abbas most likely took the decision he wanted to position himself as a strong man on the ground, as someone who is able to implement trumps the Trump Administrations agenda, and someone who is able to unify and present a single palestinian voice to the Trump Administration and someone who is able to take strong policies towards the hamas government in the gaza strip. So all of that probably formed a back drop of president s decision to escalating towards the gaza strip. And thats the context whats happening and from there things started expanding. We see on the ground, theres a significant opportunity for president. At one time the hamas government and the gaza strip was quite isolated. And we had heard that the economy has been severely impacted meaning there were no taxes on merchandise coming through the tunnels and hamas relationship with countries such as iran and saudi arabia were on the rocks and in egypt meant that hamas was swept up in the policy of marginizing. And between the gaza strip and egypt were closed. All of these factors together r ulted in a situation where the hamas government was isolated and presented an opportunity for president abbas. On the other hand, there was also an increasing effort by president s rival to come back into the political establishment to do the gaza strip. There were discussions happening between he and powers within gaza with the backing of uae to position himself as someone who could come back into the political establishment. For the threat of him coming into partner, the possibly an American Administration that would be supportive of some policies that president abbas was taking culminated in his decision to increase measures that would isolate hamas and possibly weaken the government to the extent where the pa would be able to come back into the gaza strip and take over control. Territory. And of course, what we saw in the gulf crisis with saudi arabias escalation as who was accused of supporting terrorist organizations, that is reflected within some of the dynamics happening in the gaza strip and part of the challenge now to sort of show that it isnt supporting organizations such as hamas, is only playing in abbas hands and comes up further weakening. Thats the context in in which this happened. Of course, its flawed for several reasons and i can talk about now and they were entirely counterproductive and they have back fired. And the decision on the ground now, hamas is closer and the new Alliance Forming thats forming a significant threat to the president who has backtracked from some of the policies to reinitiate with hamas. And whose backing in the gambit. Uae and egypt has been close to previously and so on. What was he counting on in terms of support . I think that i wouldnt be able to directly say, but i think my reading of the situation and my assessment of the situation, there if he was able to present himself as a secular Palestinian Authority, that is able to take control of the gaza strip and west bank, then he would be able to have the support of countries such as saudi arabia. And even as egypt and u. A d might fall into step if he was able to present a strong hand and demonstrate hes able to take control of the gaza strip. That backfired. What has resulted instead the uae continuing to support a possible successor to president abbas and egypt coming out more strongly than before in terms of support as a success serment egypt was probably seen as a country that could fall either way and its now come out very clearly as a country thats supportive of him coming back into power. The thing to understand in president abbas policies in deciding to further increase gazas isolation, he bought into the rational which is that you can increase pressure on a population of people in order to weak and political faction or in this case, a running government which is hamas government in gaza. So thats, apart from that its reprehensible because its using a form of punishment to achieve a goal, its proven to be flawed. Hamas has been weakened, but rather than collapsing or the pa coming back into the gaza strip, weve seen escalations between gaza and israel. If they use that to further weaken hamas, its a misreading of the situation from the israeli side as well. Theres a separation of gaza strip from the west bank and maintaining hamas has a government in gaza thats able to administer without presenting the security. So theres a number of factors here that abbas calculus has misread. On the west bank, maybe a few words how do you think that this played into politics and different groups tried to take advantage on the palestinian side and maybe a few words about how you see i mean, what do they have as far as supporters and hamas and factions and how you see sort of the future there in terms of palestinian politics. So in terms of mou how it plays in the events in jerusalem. We would benefit going back to 2014, the days before the latest flareup or the last flareup between gaza and i will. The events that happened in jerusalem escalated the situation on the ground between israel and gaza. Hamas was weaked then as it is now and it was open to reconciliation agreement then as president abbas hoped it would be earlier this year and there was tensions that happened in jerusalem with abduction and murder of three israelis teenagers. The same elements that paved the way in 2014 are present today. Hamas gets a lot of legitimacy for positioning itself as a movement obviously thats protecting the area in jerusalem and so its an organization that would probably be able to play opportunisti opportunistically. And if they had come in and the crisis wasnt immediately averted last month with egyptian fuel shipments coming into the gaza strip that probably would have been the point at which the next war would have escalated. So, i dont think we can separate gaza from whats happening in jerusalem. I think theyre connected and a lot of Hamas Organization as a political oranges arrives how it critiques in the west bank and positions itself as the final resistance against israeli aspirations as they see as a takeover jerusalem and the west bank. And thats in connection to the west bank. In terms of hannan, its a twist of fate because the coordination back to the early 1990s and under his leadership there was a significant amount of oppression that hamas felt in the west bank particularly and also in the gaza strip. Now theres an opportunistic alliance. Hamas benefits from this, from the uae support and taking on some of the government responsibilities that hamas has been trying to shed for year, but israel and prevented from shedding. And obviously theres another political entry point into the political establishment. Even though his entry point is through gaza, gaza continues to be a critical element of the palestinian establishment. Even though we often think of its all problem thats somehow marginal and separated from the palestinian political establishment, it isnt. For them to hold a foot hold into the gaza strip. In terms of abbas, legitimacy is facing a tough line from a younger establishment and both increasing the authoritarian, but also completely incapable of getting any keened of concessions from israel. If hannan is able to position himself as someone with political power my guess is he would be able to get support within the west bank as well. Having said that, there are likely to be other contenders, none to mind as ones that could be as powerful, but certainly there would be a power dynamic that would have a chance. Thank you very much. And we turn to you. If you could enlighten us. What are the current discussions and debates about changing developments in gaza, gaza, an area that israel withdrew from and tonight have centers there since then and yet has current relationships. What are the debates whether its the Palestinian Security standoff or the uae role in some kind of dynamic. Whats that and the risk of war. Thank you and thank you to mei for being here, and im on the extreme right, i think the extreme right will be disappointed, but ill try and represent. The current status quo i think we heard from chris earlier, it involves seeing a terrible and its terrible for the people inside gaza, but for many israelis, the feeling of about a decade at least its a very good situation. Although there may be tactical advantages with hamas, the three wars have been damaging as well and palestinian leaders in charge in the last round were very queen on avoiding it, especially them. Maybe less. Theres a growing recognition of the statues status quo. On one hand theres a widespread despair to solve what israelis see as the basic problem, a powerful neighbor and goes to war every couple years, has no one gun with the pa and if it were on the mexicanamerican border, you would have extremely unstable conditions. Youd have a very, very difficult situation and probably war. So the solution from the israeli perspective, i think also from that position would be one palestinian gun, one Palestinian Authority, controlling the gaza strip, an end to a renegade state at war with its neighbor. Now, were here by the way, we never assumed that hamas might do this, might say okay, we wont have a separate military or be a renegade state. Lets assume thats the constant and what nick else might do. First of all, thats true. Hamas is not giving up separate powers no matter the damage to the gaza strip which is morally incomprehensible, but its a fact. And conquer the gaza strip no matter the cost, better than going to war every couple of years, but usually by far, more level heads prevail. The cost, first of all, the gaza strip would be horrendous and in previous population, the last war the damage in gaza was far worse than israel, but people were running to the shelters in the middle of the night. However the situation is in gaza the other way to try to do it is help the government thats not officially at war with israel and thats pa. And now with a request and request from abbas, the minister of energy, the right wing side we should not acquiesce to this. We should not exacerbate the situation in gaza. In the end the israeli feeling by and large, theyre not going to be more pro hamas and theyre not going to and this is the domestic palestinian issue and palestinians need to solve it. Israel finds itself resorting to the same basic strategy, treeing to pressure hamas. There was a market in the block cade. Very right wing, talking about the new surrounding hamas and not to pressure too hard because then you get into a war you dont want like in 2014. And for example, a very Impressive Organization followed inside the real situation in gaza. There was a market easing of things, very far from lifting blockade and its gotten worse recently. Weve had this debate. But the stance has been still the blockade. An interesting irony, and you ask about the debates in the government. The irony is ones more hopeful about peaceful solution down the road. And ones who are trying to cooperate with the pa, the others are more hawkish on the strip. And separate palestinian state risks the whole project trying to achieve reconciliation. The ones who have no hopes or desires with solution with abbas are singing a different tune. Sally bennett opposed tore every reason, speaking about a dinner position towards the gaza strip. And theres one who sees himself as a successor to netanyahu. Building an artifical island off the gaza strip to allow gaza to have an outlet to the world. The irony sometimes the right wing in israel, especially right now talking about easing the status quote. And they dont see a twostate solution to the plan. The sim and do you back this that how hamas would be under the fold and then turn to abbas, you constantly trying to resolve this from the core youre risking war. Hamas cares more about its powers than the gaza. See what is it left with . Well, it finds itself in a conundrum of the terrible status quo, and its near the center of population of israel. Conditions weve heard are horrendous. The aquifer is the same under the southern coastal part which is very heavily populated. And the gaza strip, et cetera, et cetera. A terrible catastrophe of the people looming, the strategy, they dont have one. Then comes up the possibility, and he worked with them in the 90s. In pt charge of it later and lost him. And some at the top know him well. And hes backed by the egyptians, fighting some of the same enemies and hes backed by uae. And so, in that context, if you think of forgetting about the two state solution and forgetting about abbas and the west bank, and to some its the situation. Theres a difficult dilemma. On one hand in the longterm, the real solution would be to bring gaza on the west bank fold. I think its possible. In the shortterm what you need to do is try to alleviate this. You have a dilemma thats not simple. In my mind, under consideration, things need to be moved rapidly in the direction, i would point out its not a simple thing. Simply jetsonning that and accepting hamas, were working under the assumption, do not care about the people of gaza is not an easy choice. It may be one that you have to make, but not an easy one. Let me ask you followup questions, on the shortterm issue why hasnt israel gotten the shortterm balance right between hamas. What you future holds we dont know, doesnt have interest in the world except when its squeezed several times in the past and in some ways hamas, you know, manages some aspects, you know, of Islamic Jihad groups and others and so plays a little bit of a partner role indirectly, perhaps, in containing for managing a situation. Why havent israel and hamas sort of found a livable balance, you know, called it a longterm truce and seems to be in the interest. Short since the longterm goals doesnt seem why to the brink. Another question on turkey, you know, that israeli turkish relationships have gone through ups and downs and turkey had some ambition to play a role in gaza. Just a few comments about where the relationship stands and does it relate at all . The first question, i think, is a good question. And they agreed to despise each other across a more or less quiet border. There have been attempts, its worth remembering, after hamas after one of the elections way back, there was a one brokered by the europeans if demanding the pa to allow the crossings and things could continue more or less as normal with the the problem is that part of that is not stable. Hamas doesnt pay for much of what happens in gaza. Ramallah shows thats not a viable solution. Oughts time there have been a recently, dramatic changes, israel sees them preparing for the next round. We dont see gaza flourishes. Worth noting. The early stages of the blockade, it comes after the coup when hamas takes over the gaza strip. They start when pa ramallah was about there. In short of israeli mistrust of hamas functions is profound. Israelis are sure that every time they give to hamas they te emboldening them. And thats part of the rational. The second is its not clear that hamas itself speaks with one voice. There have been attempts in the past for longterm ceasefire for the individual and hamas, a variety. But even in 2014 when we saw heavy israeli in the west bank and what happened with the war breaking out. Thats the last thing they want wanted politically. They didnt have Effective Authority over the military wing. Third, the regional dynamic is quite important. Hamas is the spies that most of the countries in the region and its not just with egypt with you israel. And what it sees as a sort of general islamist kind of group. So from the israeli perspective, one, i think especially on the right wing, its an appealing alternative. Why should there be a blockade, its with the largest arab country and second they dont want to annoy. And not to mention all the other countries in the region with animosity towards hamas. Ill try to be brief, im talking too much. Turkey and qatar are sort of outliers in the region. With turkey its complicated. A colleague of will have that. The instigation for the crisis was the flotilla at gaza. Turkey wants to play an active role. Has more affinity than others in the region do. And even while politically they were bad, trade relations were good and they were growing. The political thing is off from that. And by and large, what were seeing is sort of an agreement to continue as normal, to continue in political relations, for political relations and rhetoric so in short, the israelis with turkey, theres not much trust. Theres certainly no affinity towards one, not in the hes that he hasnt changed the h her their posture. So, that sort of continues abated. Thank you so much. Lara, turn to you, your views on, is there an israeli longterm strategy . Natan described that. And coming to washington, this administration, where does gaza, where does it appear on their awareness radar and what is the approach . We know there are attempts at reviving the peace process, but where does gaza figure where this administration and do you see in gaza an opportunity for diplomacy or progress might be more difficult on the west bank. What are your thoughts on that. Thank you. Thanks mei for organizing this. As i was preparing my thoughts for this,s this the first on gaza in washington in a very long time which is actually a very telling fact. Gaza is off everybodys screen al we especially as we start to discuss are we going to have another war . Im old enough to remember wars in gaza. Everybody in this room probably has been through periods of war in gaza. Its like a car accident and no one acts like they have anything except watch the cars collide or drive into a wall. I think the title of this event says a lot, is gaza reaching a boiling point. A friend of mine said gaza is not a pot of water, its also not a lawn that agrees underneath to be moed. Its not a person worrying about their weight. And natan referenced gesha. My friend runs and she said, im paraphrasing it. We, meaning all of us, weve turned it into the largest controlled experiment with human beings in history testing what is the behavior and breaking point of two Million People as pressure increases over time. And thats a fundamental challenge for all of us in this room and probably good if we think about it sometimes how we resolve is before we get to the point of hey, are we about to have another war. In terms of i want to start with something positive, it links to how you open the question, is there israeli strategy. I think that natan covered this brilliantly. When you look at the israeli approach its contact tal, its not strategic. Nobody has a good idea how to end this in a way. You dont end up with these, and its a koorn. Were framing humanitarian conditions in gaza and when you hurt one and vice versa. Its a problematic way to set up the calculus and its fundamentally wrong. Thats where a lot of intervention needs to be changing in calculus, but the other part of it and this is where its distinct in East Jerusalem. Israel doesnt have strategic objectives in the gaza the way it is in the west bank. The settlements are gone and settlers have given up. I dont see a great resit recitm tendency. There are Pragmatic Solutions unable in gaza that are much harder in the west bank, if one were looking for those. At this point though we are talking an entirely tactical approach and the International Community, including the United States has acquiesced to that and in that sense we are all complicit and we all enablers in a situation where we can see at any different moment that the situation in gaza and the horror show has many, many authors, lets be clear. Overarching responsibility it israel. Israel turned off the electricity, which that is a moral choice and there are arguments for why dealing with hamas, all of this fathers responsibility and that that leads to there are obligations on all sides. But as we look towards the next gaza war, which for months now, i remember people six months ago saying are we going to have another war in the summer . My goodness if we think theres another war in the summer, why dont we do something to avert it instead of watching the tea leaves. And they talked about this, you can see how these things evolve. The u. S. Deserves enormous credit, i believe, something that chris talked about, for not backing away from the humanitarian side of this. Our continued support for un unwra, i dont understand if they understand how much political pressure against in it terms of congress. You have a constituency in congress that says the way to resolve this issue, theres no Palestinian Refugee issue, theyve been gone so long. If the u. N. Stops calling them refugees theyll stop calling themselves refugees so its a very attractive solution if you want to get rid of the issue. Its also total crap. I dont know any Palestinian Authority who considers themselves to be a refugee if the u. N. Would give them permission. The American People are committed in a way i think is quite laudable. This is not simply a humanitarian crisis and simply bandaging it is not a u. S. Policy. Its as much tactical approach as israeli approach and its getting worse and worse and worse, which where we are today when we talk about when will be the next gaza war. I was thinking about what i would talk about because its been a long time since anyone asked me to talk about gazament i was there, say, two years ago. Im going to be the only one who doesnt work for a humanitarian organization. And i talked to people on the hill about what i saw in gaza and the response i got, wow, thats terrible. Until hamas is gone theresening we can do. Which i found very predibltable and very troubling response in terms, yes, here is what children are going through and people are going through, and here is a gaza perpetually on the verge of breaking down and environmental risks for israel. Weve put ourselves in this box. For me when i talk about this today and most people know me for the work i do on settlements in jerusalem. Ive concluded today that gaza is no longer a separate issue no longer part of the overall peace process, its a permanent issue and needs to be treated as one. Its been isolated and separated so long its no less of a permanent status issue than jerusalem or settlements or refugees. It needs as much attention as those and for those of us who for years said, listen, gaza willen resolved in the con next of a sending agreement and wrap it up. I dont believe that anymore. I dont think that anyone can believe this any more and the ez rile rights and for people who somehow believes that gaza solves the west bank by alleviating hf this, its crap. That he have coined. You do not get a Peace Agreement on gaza, and you do not get a Peace Agreement on gaza until you deal with realities that means first and foremost humanitarian, yes. But no longer as an International Community, as the United States, acquiescing to the calculus thats been imposed by the parties, by israel and about hamas. This is bigger than that. And for years theyve said we cant have the people more than the parties. Ive said i expect the International Community wants peace a lot more than the parties and i suspect without help from the International Community this eyre not going get past this. And i dont know of any other conflic conflict. Conflict. As long as you cant put yourselves together, we cant do anything, this has to be done. Whether youre coming at it from a perspective of u. S. National security, or gaza and sinai and egypt. The concerns about the israel and security and you get to the question allowing gaza to simmer, whatever you want to do, until we get to the next war is morally abhorrent. Its politically nonsensical and from a security standpoint, its selfdefeating. Thank you, lara. Thank you very much. Ill come back to the question i asked you, this administrati administration, what are you seeing . What are the tea leaves on this administration . And what are the tea leaves on other diplomatic channels that may or may not exist that relate to gaza as part of the situation. I was asked what is the Trump Administration thinking on x. Anyone who tells you they know what the Trump Administration is thinking rit large on x, is lying now. There isnt a single voice. I could say i talked to one person, political or actually, you know, could be someone political or bureaucratic. I have no idea. I can say i think were continuing our commitment on thats laudable. And this is expenditure of capital this administration deserves credit. And ill tell you who is not a fan of this administration in general, some credit on this, theyre not that much different on gaza than the obama administration. Nobody wants to Pay Attention to gaza. This is a sinkhole for people politically. There are no easy answers available. Anything you do is going to piss off israel, fatah and is that another technical term . Im sorry, you do this for enough years and youre going to say what you think and weve set it up that gaza has no theres no point of entry from a policy basis for gaza. We set that up as soon as we put the rules on hamas, no, you cant deal with hamas until hamas essentially reforms itself and sends all of its people to jail for supporting hamas. Its simply not possible. If the rules of engagement will not engage until the people in charge lock up, leave and say were sorry and put them in jail youre saying no place to he be gauge. Fine, you tried that, you tried it for a lot of years and it didnt work. When i hear discussions on this ill lustrous channel, and what is going to happen with whom, i sat in a conference where they were debating who would wait longer and be in a better situati situation, that was a decade ago. I was in ramallah and i asked about the electricity issue, they werent defending it, but they said its a failed policy. If we were going to do it, it would have been done ten years ago. Weve been down this road over and over, theres always a little difference on the margin and now theres a different factor. Is the emirates going it turn this enough that the fatah hamas calculations fundamentally change and suddenly one person gets to be in charge ab and we could have a new point of entry. As an analyst, i find an extremely impossible someone from the outside world would say you move this this direction. Theres a cost if you dont. I think same day with slightly different effects and same horrific impacts on the ground. Thank you very much, lara. Let me now turn to the audience for questions. There are roving microphones, so i can see. The gentleman in the far back, introduce yourself and ask your question. Im lou, i used to travel to gaza regularly in 2013, 2014 for news reports. My question is about hamas as a terrorist group. The e uchu recently wrote to ke hamas on the terror list and theres no possibility that the United States is going to drop hamas off the list in the near future. So my question is to end the gaza blockade. Is there any specific step, is this a prerequisite at least for the world to recognize hamas is not a terrorist group . We know that things are two things are related, but how closely are the two things related. Thank you. There is a gentleman next to you since the microphone is in the neighborhood. I teach at George Washington university. How will the serious situation impact the situation, considering you have russian troops, american troops, kurdish troops, and forces loyal to assad. Thank you. Over here the gentleman in the second row, two gentlemen in the second row. Gentleman in the red shirt first. Let the panelists take note of the questions and well come back to you. Comments were kind of tilted in that regard because i think thats a huge oversight. With regards to the u. S. Role and funding, while you said it was a lot of i also wonder how does that then work out with civilians, foreign aid deals provides israel with. That seems rather counterproductive. Lastly, in terms of thinking about us as the humidity in crisis. When not talking about crisis theres a hurricane that with her gaza. We talking about iq managing crisis caused by state violence. So i want to, im hoping i can hear from you all as to how we address a humanitarian crisis in that regard. Start with you and move in that direction. Anany of the questions you would want to respond to. Unfortunately i cant read my handwriting. I just wrote down. The first of all i want to start in the back. That is a key question, the question of hamas a as a terror group of the people can talk about i think chris can probably address the whole issue of the mechanism for reconstruction and the limits that are put on dealing with gaza because hamas is in charge. Hamas is a Terror Organization because they engage in terrorism. Whatever you believe, in terms of israel relationship with hamas and what it should be and the fact israel does deal with hamas, lets not pretend they dont. Its the United States and the International Committee that says 000 context. Hamas. Hamas is supported devastating terrorism inside israel, and i would argue that shooting missiles, shooting rockets unnamed into civilian areas is definitionally terrorist activity. That is not resistance. That is not self defense. When youre just shooting things up and wondering where they will land and you are aiming them towards populations, that is terrorism. That being said the fact that the west bank, especially causes under control of hamas doesnt mean that the entire population of gaza is now guilty of being terrorists or that it is legitimate or legal or moral to inflict collective punishment. Weve been having this discussion since the plc elections in mid2000, right . Hamas won those elections there and swear that i was on the ground as an observer. They won been fair and square. Not because theyre holding guns to anyones heads. Suddenly the Palestinian People deserve whatever they get because hamas which by the way ran as the party of change and reform, correct, yes. Change and reform, running again, not on an islamic terrorism as the anticorruption party. They had their agenda as well. Suddenly 2 Million People in gaza essentially the political horizon for them is erased because hamas is a terrorist organization and the world will basically throw a little bit here and there, try to keep them from really dying. This is a manmade humanitarian crisis. Its just, im not an expert on every conflict in the world. I cannot think of any conflict with the world has essentially said we hate the rumors so were actually going to abandon the people completely or almost completely in a conflict where we are supporting by the way one size military and security perspective. It doesnt hold up as logic and it doesnt hold up as a National Security construct for the u. S. Chris, any comments . Should the blockade, you know, what impact does it have and also issues, you said there have been development. Can you said that more about that and how d. C. Potential reconstruction for development . I be happy to. In the blockade, its quite an impressive arrangement that they have. The problem as i mentioned in our early remarks here was its not that imports that its finallfunto know the problem. There are challenges and those are being worked through. There are Items Available for purchase. Its the exports. If you cant afford the product you cant buy them. Just an example here, 2 Million People in the gaza strip, my Organization Feeds 1 Million People in the gaza strip. Thats half of the population. W fp, we only see refugees. W fp sees about another 250,000, talking 1. 25 Million People out of a population of 2 million that relies on human food assistance. Its not theres nothing on the shelf. Its also not the movement of goods but it specifically even more important the movement of people. Prior to the blockade there were roughly 1000 that worked in israel. If anybody has been to the border crossing, its evident that was built with a view pathing massive amount of people crossing the border. Its enormous enormously for every time i go there, barely anybody there. Part of this is the economy is going to recover, there needs to be this exchange and dismembered of not only goods but people and not only goods going in but goods going out. Thats the critical component. In terms of the reconstruction, we have a part of the rule in the reconstruction of shelters come of housing in gaza. We dont have the full control of that system. The gaza reconstruction mechanism is overseen in part by the u. N. There is a very tight regime i can tell you that. Its very strict on whether mature goes. The region we have is importing concrete and other materials, involves videocameras, watching the materials. We have to certify Staff Members about where the material is, photos of walls we built with concrete, matching that up with the amount of concrete weve requested. Its a very tight regime. Of course those are all done for security reasons for israel. They do want the materials used for construction to be diverted for other uses. Also we see while there are Infrastructure Projects taking place and we do quite a few of them, we have some additional ones that are not necessary directly related to refugees in gaza. Theres a hesitancy for many donors to invest heavily in infrastructure in gaza. Who is going to control and whos going to run it comes when operated, whos going to make sure its sustainable in the long run . What happens if theres of the complex . There is some of this hesitation on behalf of men in the International Community to address the underlying infrastructure problem. Then you talk about the humanity and issues and part of that is employment, but again is there so jobs and you cant just create jobs. We have the second largest employer in gaza. We represent about 11 of the gdp which is outrageous that a u. N. Agency doesnt that. I think until this can be systematically addressed, its not going to really solve the issue. Comments on some of the questions . Im glad to try to comment on the question electively some of things or spoken about on this panel. I think its really important to sorry. I think its really important here to keep stepping back and understand the broader context in which all of this is happening. Defining hamas as a terrorist organization where the support that or you dont support that come in my mind is a red herring. It has created a situation where everything that israel does towards the gaza strip is excuse. It becomes excusable under terrorism or the fight against radical islamic groups or any kind of policy that is seen that the present of fighting terror becomes excusable. So before hamas in gaza being aa terrorist haven there was the plo and it was a haven. When hamas was a terse organization it was a renegade state and theres all these terms they keep getting used and they keep getting used that appear to justify a policy that is put in place to maintain gaza as a problematic enclave that is separate from the rest of the palestinian case. What that is greater is a situation where were not talking about conflict resolution. Were not talking about trying to resolve the political drivers of the conflict before talking about conflict management we are saying were going to keep the gaza strip. We spoke a bit about the tactical issues in the absence of a longterm strategy within israel and the fact that israel had debate internally about whether or not to increase isolation of the gaza strip and suffering through some of the security measures. But all of those are operating within the context of Palestinian Authority in the west bank which is committed to security coordination which maintains security in the west bank while having an authority in the gaza strip that is actually anticoncession, has refused to recognize israel, committed to Armed Struggle against israel, and possessing that organization then represents the policy in the gaza strip and we can keep all of that, leave it on the site and this way we can manage the palestinian territories without allowing them any form of unity and without addressing the political drivers. What hamas is an organization is. So we can think whatever you want to think about hamas. I personally find many of its policies despicable that doesnt mean that hamas doesnt have legitimate Political Goals that were called for by the plo before hamas, and that if hamas were to be defeated now would be called for by some organizations after hamas. Rather than fixating on this idea of how to become a zerosum game between hamas and how do we manage the situation in gaza, how to ensure security, we need to be thinking about what the underlying political drivers that give rise to organizations like hamas are to begin with. And the fact of the matter is israel is an occupying state, and gaza has been an occupation. So when we talk about collective punishment and when you talk about hamas not caring for the people under its role, israel as an Occupying Force as a responsibility to people under occupation by it. The palestinians in gaza are still occupied by israel, and so this idea of collective punishment is actually in violation of International Law to begin with, from the side of israelis regardless of what hamas thinks about the people under its rule. The one other thing i want to say is we can talk about hamas not caring about people under ritual. We can talk about hamas being aa terrorist organization, hamas being illegitimate. The fact is many people spoke with an gaza despise a monster also despise israel which is the biggest architect of this sort of occupying infrastructure and framework around the gaza strip. But when wars flare up, people support the resistance. And theres a reason for that. Its not because all the people in the gaza strip and all the palestinians are terrorists. They support the resistance because they are legitimate internationally sanctioned rights including the rights of selfdetermination, the right of return, the poor tenant of the palestinian struggle. So whether those are couched in hamas are couched in lone wolf attacks, those will always be there. Instead of talking about this idea of managing gaza, israel is in a difficult position because it has to do with its internal palestinian struggle, in reality it wouldnt be that situation it is important to end its occupation. And get in line with International Law and with american foreignpolicy which continues to pull for a twostate solution. So if theres any sort of desire to genuinely in the situation in the gaza strip, the way isnt a focus on hamas and stop the fighting it as a terse organization and regime engage with them at all those things, those would be prerequisite in my opinion, but it would be to do with the palestinian issue writ large as a political problem that still has International Law supported by International Law that israel continues to circumvent in its socalled fight against terror. Thank you, tareq. Theres a lot to do with but i will cover everything. The question about renegade province, a technical term thats not a question of israels determination, but a question for the p. A. To decide. A province that is a renegade province would be one that is ruled by rebellious military and that would entail very dramatic if the people to declare, it would detail very dramatic sanctions against gaza. Sorry, for things in the gaza strip something that is not been done. They have not declared it to be province in rebellion. Wwere seeing a change in that. I think theres a more important sort of undertone. Renegade province are calling hamas terrorist or position, i think were missing the point. There are two main people in a very difficult, terrible situation. Theres also, there are also people neighboring that are much better situation but also by themselves in the shoulder. The question is who you might more, we should hate israel more than hamas are hamas more. Thats beside the point. [inaudible] thank you. [inaudible] i apologize. So whether or not someone hates israel more or hates hamas more, thats really beside the point. The question is what the parties can do, and its important remember a few things. First is the stronger party, as you mention israel is deathly the stronger party, and has a moral responsible for a lot of things that happen, but its a terrible mistake, to think that houston had no agency at all. Decisions hamas makes versus the ones that p. A. Makes have no effect on things. Life in the last decade has been very bad in the west bank. Its been like yours better than the gaza strip. And the same evil and quotation pick something that the decisions has been different and had a real effect on the lives of millions of people. So we can argue whos to blame and whos not by think really we should focus on important thing which is a dramatic crisis of people, and so the stork quibbles about who who was responsible for what, theres also agencies to party. The question of the terrorist organization, whether its a definition, whether you define it as were not. Maybe relevan develop as whethee terrorism but that should not be relevant i think to whether one deals with the reality that hamas is there, has a lot of power, should be dealt with, should be spoken to care that because he would like to come i dont but because its a reality. We speak to me regimes, Many Organizations that we hate with good reason but we still deal with them in reality. I would say about the blockade, theres a lot of words that are thrown around. People sometimes say they are the seeds of gaza. Would mean youre trying to star the population into submission. That doesnt exist because theyre sending a lot of food, allowing things happen. Theres clearly a blockade. The israelis defined as a blockade and legally after the incident, gained of legal recognition of fighting a stateless fighting, blockade is one of the things you do in war. The u. S. Has done in cuba. Many countries have done with many others. The problem is that we have this no mans land of ten years of partial blockade by israel and egypt against the gaza strip with no clear resolution. Israel is not intending to conquer the gaza strip. Its not going to simply let hamas to whatever it wants and attack issue. Even if its much, much weaker, no country, the u. S. , denmark, anyone would allow a neighbor to attack it even if its much, much weaker. If tijuana broke from mexico and started shelling san diego the u. S. Would do something about it. Now, should it do a tenure blockade . I think that. Thanks need to be just dramatically but its not because there is a Palestinian Agency whatsoever nor is it its a stronger power. Try to end quickly. I hope i have angered people both sides enough. Security cooperation i think is a crucial question in the west bank. I dont know. It depends but i think this is crucial question and especially when a look at whats happening in the gaza strip and when you think that what happened can lead to the constant quickly. Were entering a very dangerous. Not only with cosmo with the west bank and these are closely tied to one another a possible of transition of authority of any thats a good cooperation and what might happen is crucial. I very much of the cooperation continues. It is normalization. It is operating with israel and i think thats a good thing. I think it is allowed the west bank to be vastly better although it is not where it should be, which it should be an independent state alongside israel. We had send them seven minutes left. I will take it to questions. Microphone, please. Role in, representing the National Council on youth and relations and call state analytics. In regard to the crisis, what would an elongation of that mean for gaza . Are there any quantifiable impacts we can expect if it lasts for months or years . Thank you. The gentleman in the front here. Welcome to the middle east institute i was born in tehran. Ive represent global bridges for humanity, and our goal is usurer tong, not your gun use your tongue. The problem of what is going on in palestine did not exist 100 years ago. I am sure 100 years from now it will not exist either. Quick question because we dont have the question is amiss. This. For 60 years of negotiation, we have got nothing. When is more powerful partner, the occupiers out Palestinian Land going to realize that this cannot go forever . Either they have to live together or theyre going to die alone. Thank you. Thank you for doing this. I have a question, after i talked to a rabbi, he said the reason israeli attacks a process out on because of hamas, also for the holy promises, israel wants to achieve. And whenever gods and palestine get attacked by israel, obviously blames hamas. So do we really think israel will stop its attacks and occupational mindset in hamas if hamas decides to thank you. We have one minute for a panelists and then you can ambush them in the hallways afterwards. Natan. The question of occupation of Israeli Occupation of the gaza strip, and when will it finally understand that. Its worth unpacking the firmament. Israeli troops are not in the gaza strip and the board is partially closed. That is purple to normal between two countries, right . Aborted between many countries is close. The main difference is caxis and access. Thats basically the core of all were talking about, Israeli Occupation in the gaza strip. So i would be very, very cautious on using that word because israelis time and time again is a gaza and israel is explained the full argument. Its completely obvious. [inaudible] i understand that we have very few minutes. You can discuss it later. [inaudible] natan. I said the occupation boiled down to that. Thats what i said. Maybe there are invisible subsets i dont know of but there are, assume there are none i know of it boils down to effective control of the territory thats what these organizations talk about which is the air and the secret its not the border with egypt. It boils down to effective control which is what they see and the epic this is what it boils down to. Its a dangerous to use this rhetoric of israel is responsible actually everything because it weakens the possibility of convincing israelis that if occupation ever into something with change. In israel you might they pull out of the gaza strip and resulted for worse for palestinians and also for israel. And, therefore, we need to be i think very, very careful about this. When will israelis change the mind . Its around august 1993 when you decide to engage the plo, except the idea of id already accepted and then 2000 and later accept a twostate solution. Has this happened . No. As israel done everything they should . Actually not. Thats not forget that our two parties. Six different prime ministers, et cetera. We arguing about who is right and whos wrong, it was evil, is occupied or not. I think that is not the question. We needed asking ourselves have actual situation of real people is improved. Ill stop there. Time is short. Ill be quite quick. I think this is where probably natan and i disagree. Its not just about making the lives of the inhabitants that the big its not giving them Political Rights and full equality. So in the west bank the lives of people could be better but there also committed to security coronation. You are also unable to live and maintain life that is devoid of occupation and is ready control into your everyday life, including checkpoint, including whether or not youre able to have roads. This idea that life is better than everything is okay is fundamentally inaccurate. And then the fact that the person, what happened in the accord, it was a rupture of this idea when life is better, people will stop demanding Political Rights. People continue demand Political Rights. Thats not happening in the west bank and not happening in the gaza strip are in terms of the idea of occupation, the plaintiff lechery shows why the concert of his occupied. Its not only the sea and the air tickets also the fact if you have cancer in the gaza strip you cannot get released because they do not allow you to leave. People who are born and raised in the gaza strip would have to register within israel to be allowed to get some form of identity at some point. So israel is the body is able to get the body and another way which that is occupied. I think im going to end with this final comment about when will those, when will the situation change. I am not shying away from criticizing the palestinian leadership. The fact that the palestinian struggle has devolved into some sort of factional zerosum game between them. But ultimately until the average israeli starts seemed impact of the occupation on their life and unable to go to tel aviv or go to jerusalem without saying that they are fundamentally electing a supporting governments that are maintaining the occupation, until the shift happens within israel, then the occupation is actually quite sustainable. We have been saying for the past 50 years since 67 but also since 48 the situation is not sustainable, its very sustainable. And tell us starts changing, things are going to change on the ground. I will yield back one minute. All right. So i want to close by going back to what i said before, which is i think gaza has to be woven back into the discussion of resolving israeli policy encompassed as a whole. Were talking about whether or not when, not even whether, when will be the next war in gaza to a week ago were talked about whether or not jerusalem is going to completely explode and were going to see it across the west bank. Weve had a low level quasimany antibody which is bubbled up the past three years around jerusalem. When we talk about global terrorism, thats not from gaza. Thats in the west bank and is happening in East Jerusalem. This comes down, and i agree with a lot of what both of my colleagues said, even when the disagree with each other, the immediate challenge would look at gaza is clearly humanitarian. You would have to be a sociopath to look at gaza and not feel not just terrible the substance of human responsibility for trying to make things better. But the reality is you can bandaid it all you want. Whats absent overwhelmingly, the overwhelming absence or is a political ricin and thats after not just in gaza. Its more obvious its absent in gaza but its long been absent in the west bank and for East Jerusalem as well. And again im old enough to remember the logic after hamas took over gaza which is the community was shut out hamas and people see how bad life is in gaza while we let life flourish in the west bank. And ive watched the past ten years as life in the west bank is basically seen the political horizon for ending occupation despair, settlements constantly expanding, areas being depopulated. Lets be honest here, that wasnt even a real, if that it worked, if weeds in gaza turned into this difficult place in the west bank turn into hong kong, you could its a all right, this is maybe a winning strategy, people will see turning away from abbas has benefits. But abbas has no credibility. Spend some time there. Get outside of there and talk to people and dont go to the town, is not an example of whats happening in the west bank. The area in the south have hills and in the valley is a much better example of whats happening in the west bank where you were seeing huge areas of what should be a future palestinian state if anyone a a series about a twostate solution being effectively depopulated. In the valley is happening essential i was talking with someone, you dont need very many settlers extranet outpost our pen pins with strings and uf the pins and strings backed by the idea to take over massive areas and yet the Israeli Government passing laws which suspend the rule of law to allow this to continue. Fundamentally, you asked what about the religious site even if moscows way, even if we have a viable peace plan, what about the religious side . Some of my best friends in israel were on the left are deeply committed. If you talk, doesnt matter, we all know these people who come out at the position of real love of the land. Lets not forget the cradle of judaism. The idea of giving up control is very painful if you are religious at all. Even if youre not religious should understand why theres a connection for the jewish people. But when i talk to my friends and they say i drink of the day when i can come back and be welcomed not as an occupier as a person with a legitimate right and legitimate history here, thats what they are fighting for. I think that strand of religious commitment to a land does not demand perpetual occupation. At the end of the day though humanitarian obviously, the political horizon across the board, that is what we always get back to here and after every war thats what we will be so missing until somebody resurrects it for the israelis and palestinians alike. Thank you, lara. [applause] its been a excellent and sobering panel. I want to thank you all for coming. And before thanking the panel, if you could stay seated place for a moment before we finish. I wanted to again take the Family Foundation for its support and our board member for his continued to support. Please join me in thanking this excellent panel. [applause] [inaudible conversations] tonight on the communicators w were at the black hat cover since in las vegas with jeff moulton, executive director of the stevenson National Center for Security Research and training at Louisiana State university. Hospitals are being attacked almost daily. The federal government, the market space, the banks are getting whacked almost daily. Were not going to eliminate this threat. Weve got to learn to live with it. We have lived for malindi and with the flu virus. They never eradicated the flu virus. We learn to live with it. You do certain things when you know you are exposed and the flu is going around, you get a shot, isolate yourself from other folks that have with the flu. Theres hygienic measures you take in the physical world that are not u. S. In the digital world. Watch the communicators tonight at eight eastern on cspan2. Now a discussion on south koreas military defense with a retired Lieutenant General and a south korean army. Posted by Johns Hopkins school of advanced international studies, this is one hour and 20 minutes. Hello, everybody. If you could please turn your cell phone off, it would be really appreciated. Good evening. I hope you enjoyed the food. I would like to thank all of you for coming here to attend tonight event only half of the trance of go