So his goal of establishing a new world war in the middle east out of the chaos that was the old ottoman world i think he and a few others around him are still trying to do that. But he picked a big fight when he picked the fight with russia and that is limiting his project and so far the middle east is not lining up to stand behind him and rejoin the ottoman sphere of influence. He is still pushing this project and agenda but with limited success. On that terrible day. I was not in the midwest. On that terrible day. I just dont have anything more to add to the debate. Do you keep up with stanford football . Yes, i do. [laughter] your name before this weekend, and i learned, i read about the kidnapping of the nbc news team and yourself in 2012. Yes. And in april of last year it was effectively retracted. Want to make another group look bad and so they will disguise themselves with the group come in this case it was sunnis posing as she is. Is that it . If so, are you interested in what will perhaps our own government add . John mccain, Lindsey Graham two senators who are pushing at this time to arm and find the Free Syrian Army. Was the Free Syrian Army responsible for this kidnapping and rescue . There are two questions. One about, to make it a little more clear, three years or so ago i was in syria with the team of Close Friends and colleagues, and unfortunately we were kidnapped. There were held by masked gunmen loveless the back of a truck and moved us from place to place. While we were there the whole time we believe that whole time we believe that , people who were shia militia , and we believe that by the way there were acting comeau what they were telling us, the way they were behaving, and it seemed very credible. And we got out of this horrible experience alive, everyone our team made it to land moved on the lives. A couple years later we got a tip that said, theyre may be more there. These people who grab you, youyou, you might want to look again at them. So we did and spent two months thinking back and trying to find out who and where and it was complicated. I do think that these people were probably in all likelihood, and it is very hard to know, frankly. It goes to the point of our the situation is and remains in syria, loyalties are often not what they seem and alliances are convenient, and all likelihood there were thugs, people who wanted a ransom, posing as regime loyalists case we got out we would not know who they were. So kind of a false flag or hiding of identity, yes. Do i think this was a conspiracy with the us politics involved in Lindsey Graham and all this . No. I think this was much more local. Hello. Thank you for being here. Currenthere. Current defense reporter in dc, aspiring Foreign Correspondent. It seems that much of this, this, you did not just parachute and somewhere, you were in a region long before other reporters arrived. If i were you where would you go . I would get out of this town. If you want to be a Foreign Correspondent you by definition have to be foreign and correspondent thing. I would look at the worlds until other young journalists, think about what the world is going to look like in 20 years. I took a gamble. If the middle east have been a boring dead i would not be here right now, i wouldi would have had an interesting career and no one wouldve cared and no one will be buying this book. It was 1986 my left i probably wouldnt have gone to the middle east. I wouldve done the poland or moscow, but it wasnt. It was 1996. The middle east is probably going to be the story of my generation. I would say to you, go home and think about it for couple days comeau what will be the story of the next 20 years. Maybe its not the middle east. Maybe its the environment. Google place we think the environment will be most impacted. Think about where politics are going to be and then go there. Would you say maybe africa . I think africa is interesting. Im not sure if the next 20 years, going to the middle east, you may have missed it. In the last 15 years of her two major american ground wars in the middle east, one of which did not go particularly well with hundreds of thousands of troops cycling through. As a Foreign Correspondent, a unity better . Probably not. I doubt the 100 1st Airborne Division will ever be deployed en masse to baghdad again in our lifetimes. I could be wrong, but i dont anticipate another iraq style work. Look at the map and think about the different pieces and then figure out where you want to be. Maybe us the story of the next 20 years. I dont know. Thank you. But its a fun experiment think about. Wind helps. And then once you have thought about it and come to this dystopian vision, more wind helps. I took that advice every day. A menu several years ago in afghanistan. I would like to say, im happy to be standing here in front of you stateside that we are both your safe. I appreciate your service and thank you for you thank me for mind because youre an unsung hero. And now i have to thank you for yours. My question relates to strategic tools of power. We generally go to military over time. Anytime there is an International Crisis military steps up overlook to the military. We did well using economic power. What can we do better diplomatically to not engage foreign leaders but engage the people. Thank you very much. Thank you for your service. Up in the presspast valley. What i promise. One of the most dangerous , frigid, but also sort of beautiful parts of afghanistan. We out there together in the vehicle broke down and we had to move. I wasnt there for that but i had lunch with you about but airborne. He utilized my thoughts. Thank you very much. They borrowed some equipment off of you. Which is probably not allowed, thank you. Hours hanging on every word. Thank you. I hope returned it to you. The problem with american not necessarily just diplomacy but engagement is the us continues to retreat and continues to go deeper and deeper behind undiplomatic enclaves and often times it is not the diplomats are running the show but their Security Officers who determine who they can meet and waiting for how long. And thats a problem. Were losing contact. Contact. Contact. He cant just listen the peoples communications and read their emails from behind the walls of the castle. You lose contact, the texture. I dont know why. Nextdoor there is an Italian Cultural Center shows italian movies and you can come in and take italian language classes. Seems like every night. We generally stay cloistered behind these walls and have meetings at get put online as they get leaked. So i think they need to try and engage more. Staying in the castle is a Server National interest. I dont know why we dont have a vigorous cultural outreach program, and american studies center. They dont really exist. We used to have them. Have to wait online and can even approach it. Our outreach, if someone goes to istanbul in their welcome to have pizza night, something simple like that, local from the neighborhood, it can change your impression of the country over time. If you do that every day i think it means something. Yes, did lawrence of arabia influence your career yes. When i moved out to the middle east i was a kid. I moved out to the middle east and wanted to do this when rosa very young boy. Thirteen years old call with my family. Llama moving in a hotel. I was sitting on the steps you, you come out. She was from there. And i was waiting there in front of this grand hotel. There was a Horse Carriage are in the Center America dash. And my mother came down the steps and a bottle of perfume. You should work there one day. Its based in paris. I said okay. Ill be inpump in paris, in my office, typewriter, my cigarette and arrived the next great novel and that was what i wanted to do. It was the whole romantic view thosethe dose of being in an exotic place and doing something exotic. It is not always been that romantic but i still like the concept. Is your mother a fan of greta garbo . I will have to ask her. There is a flair. If you not. You spoke earlierspoke earlier strongman, dictators coming out of some of these revolutionary situations. In another option might be the installation of a puppet regime. We find ourselves often claiming to be bringing democracy to this area. With mp attempts to install the strongman . Attempt by the government empowers to put down puppets . Absolutely. We have every would be strongman proposed our Regional Government always on people will survive. I hope they are not people of people. I think its going to be hard on the next period because they had such a recent traumatic experience that they will be running away for stability. Not a very old age already am wondering where you get your news from. Other sites or blogs. There is no one place. You have to read a lot. You have to read. The thing that i tell people the most is to read. I read a lot of books on the middle ages and the crusades. A pet project of mine, passion. A lot of what i do is religious studies. The middle ages and the crusades and anyplace anytime with the weapons. So the more you can read the more you can fill in the picture. I collect books. That will be the key thing. There is no blogger tweet or amalgamation that that is the answer. The more you can read almost any subject the moremore you learn about the subject you want to know about. All the product. Spent a little time and iran in the middle east. Reminds me of book called anatomy of revolution which is basically every time you have a revolution the aftermath is dictatorship. Im wondering, there is no middle space, hard to have some democratic reforms. Im wondering, when i was an iran there was no middle class. Education and middle class are the solutions. You need people to have a little bit of money in the pocket. If your desperate youll have a lot of choice. No knowledge because you have been deliberately miss educated you are easily manipulated. Longterm is education and economic empowerment. Countries where you see that is possibility . I met a young woman, stock exchange. So little. Spent. In this room. This young very energetic stopover is that excited. Going to go through things are going to change. You have a lot of people like her. Going to be tourists and banking put the goods online denied. So they were very excited about entering the world economic, but then you have the regime which has a vested interest does not want to see things change. Sort of perestroika without flaws knows. Is that possible . Itll have the society betting it is not possible. Open the door little bit. And the people saying no, we will make sure it doesnt open any wider. Have no idea. Thats one of the fascinating physical points of tension. Thank you. Its your venue. Three more questions. You just said indication and Economic Opportunity was the answer. Create a more modern society always living hand to mouth you dont have a lot of choices. That is Bernie Sanders message. [applause] luckily i will have to deal with any domestic politics, so im not even going there. They have so many people who spend all day talking about this. One of ask you a question but the future of islam and the struggle between more moderate forces and islamist ones. The short answer is yes. I dont think its going to win. Think of it as a virus within the middle east and within islam. And like any virus you have a cold sore. Its inside you. When your weekend broken down it comes out of manifests itself. But that is a little bit like it. It is manifested itself and become contagious because the body around and eventually the body will become stronger and it will cede to the darkness. The dark recess of its mind that does not want to acknowledge. Have been moments of fanaticism in all religious groups and islam as well and generally history moves on. But they have space. At the physical place, and there is so much chaos and so many competing interests that are allowing them to have the space. The unified policy to fill that void. How much more authorities can you get . I can agree on anything. The russians have an agenda. The people who are near, its bigger politics. The iranian agenda, the american consistent policy. Is iraq. So many Different Reasons ill explain why there is a black whole in the region being filled by this talks. Sorry to have brought of cold sores. It might be up in thethe net last thing on your plate here. Am going to find some books. The concept and after a civil war it seems grounded in more european history but we actually see. If you think about it in somalia, libya, lebanon, syria from all this conflict or at the end of the civil war we dont end up in the place where is a dictator. The borders and conflicts. And nonstate actors. The state system, and census is the last question i will thank you all, but since we think of the state system that has been around in europe for a long time. Middle east existed an empire system. The Ottoman Empire and the caliphate were more like the roman empire, large empires that ran from the center really you ran your own affairs. The modern state system with dates and flags and borders and uniforms and National Anthems was religious carved up. In the region its relatively new and frankly it has been relatively unsuccessful i think thats why the state system, you had the mandates for a brief period after world war i mostly ruled by the uk and france. World war i was enough. Then they commit suicide again world war ii. The United States tipton it hasnt happened yet when the old state system has been torn apart the way it has right now command it has been reduced to Something Like going back to the days of 1919 where there are no nationstates anymore in the antecedent no conflicts have emerged to the forefront. So is a european model . Your pass a nationstates. And with that thank you very much and i will sign as many books as i can. Youre watching book tv on cspan2. [inaudible conversations] good evening, everyone. Lovely to get a full crowd like this. Founding director. He made it. Congratulations. And its very exciting to have these talks sponsored by forward. Never accepted any money. How long run organization