Not a printout of a stack of emails, but an actual book. It is actually quite an enjoyable experience and i suggest that you all try it sometime. This is the book. Ive had the pleasure of reading about this. So i have found was a real surprise. I wanted to find cleverly worded propaganda as the hallmark of any debate in our soundbite driven news cycle. But instead i found nuance and the understanding of complexity and expected to find handpicked anecdotes with one side of the argument. Instead i found an appreciation of both sides could argue and have validity. Except to identify what the true nature was and i think you will agree that this is exceedingly rare in energy and environment on the council of Foreign Relations and Energy Insecurity change of climate, Energy Security and arms control. As project director, cochairs by governor vilsack, Scientific American among others. The Financial Times and the book is even reviewed. Perhaps most interesting he served as a technical consultant to the drama 24 and i have probably spent about an hour asking about that. So lets not hold it against him. Please join me in offering a warm welcome to our speaker. [applause] thank you. It is fantastic but there is such a big crowd here and apparently there are folks here that are interested in energy. I was telling someone earlier that i had difficulty figuring out what to wear today and i picked up some interesting items above clothing and i have now a beautiful light blue bandanna i want you all to imagine for a moment that this is june of 1973 and not june of 2013. You are starting to see gas lines pop up around the country and regulators are trying to ration supplies. It has been three years since the modern Environmental Movement was marked. Even though most of you probably arent thinking of the middle east, you will be when producers quadruple their prices and set off the 1973 oil crisis. Then you will see the United States response on the part of that will calm this and encourage people to curb demand and persuade innovators to invest in new technologies early a month after the crisis began, congress moved forward with an oil pipeline across alaska and within a couple of years, it happened with the firstever and if you look a few more years into future you will find the country is consumed by paralyzing battle. Traditional fuel, oil, natural gas, increasingly Nuclear Power and another is protest on alternatives and promoting conservation and efficiency. The country now has to change. Energy becomes a focal point with peaks in the 1980 election and it becomes so entrenched that it is impossible to focus on the underlying subject. A lot of Historical Research in the early days of the last president ial campaign and the parallel were eerie. If you look at the campaign, ted kennedy was in the democratic primary and he described in Energy Platform based on unfair prices that would bring hardship to ordinary people. David stockman is less remembered that year and he calls jimmy carters plan a control of resources in the economy and described them as prosecuting their views with the determination putting the smallness of their minds. It shouldnt be a surprise that the United States has made some progress with the resulting gridlock. But in the 1980s, Oil Production has plummeted and resources are becoming more difficult than congress has given up on Clean Energy Standards and there was an occasional part of the last dozen years where energy has reemerged and become central to some of the countries biggest debates, just like this with the events in the world. Asking people to reconnect including Hurricane Katrina and that followed a fuse under two years later by skyrocketing gasoline prices again. The second thing that happened has echoes of 1972 and begins to transform in a way that we havent seen for years. A lot of you know the basic trends. Natural gas held by fracturing and the source of energy in 2011. Last year we saw a production rise capping off a four year production. Renewable energy doubled and u. S. Oil consumption was driven by a weak economy and also by bus driving and improving technologies. So the echoes dont end with changes in energy. We are also starting to relive some of the paralyzing battles of the 1970s as well. You dont need to go that far back to see a time when we could have agreed in 2005 and 2007 and 2000 and eight and john mccain and obama fought over whose capandtrade program cap and trade program was better. In 2000 and president obama moved against the interest of some of his allies in order to increase production of offshore oil and gas. You dont hear much about these things. Instead you hear about how blocking it would be a body blow to National Security and nuclear about how cracking will corrupt our politics were about how well create a place for oil and hear about our government and Energy Innovation or how there are losers like slender that show how badly washington can be. This is a hugely frustrating state of affairs. Here you have havent spent barely five years, it is more radical than half a century. Everything from the future of the economy to a position in the world and instead of using this as an opportunity to think about how we approach energy and take advantage of the changes underway, we are grasping at older ways of thinking over what to do. It is that makes sense together with great fascination about what is happening in the consequences that motivate me to write this book, i try to do three things. First thing i want to do is tell the story about what is happening minute you focus on International Issues when you want to understand something and you end up in moscow or beijing or rwanda and i do that, but i also spent time in pennsylvania and colorado and ohio and detroit trying to understand what was happening on the ground and i want to tell you about one encounter that stuck with me. People in houston are familiar with the oil and gas industry. A lot of places where the country is being transformed is not so familiar. One of those places was in southern ohio and i went to them about wrapping. The first person i met was lauren taylor. A 4yearold operation and ive actually watched him speak at the anticracking rally and he told me a story. He said that my parents have property down here and its beautiful. The world war ii veteran had moved into the property in 1945 and hadnt allowed anybody can. By the 1950s like most places around here, this is a beautiful place. Taylor had moved away and then moved back about property next door and he said to me that that property had won him a blue ribbon for the finest corn and two years later the runner story the bottom for his 640acre farm. Then he said he could from Ohio State University and geology concluded that it would be a thousand years for would return to what it had been before. You do the Economic Analysis for me versus one year ago. Now, while i was talking to him, bill is a dairy farmer and he drove up and he is a friend and one of the big differences between them is that he says to me the opponents are hypocrites. I am willing to censor his remarks a little bit because heres roughly what he said. He said that they are worried about the way of life when the barbarians are at the door. The kids dont have fathers, the barbarians are there and you are worrying about taking your sunday night drive. If i have left out a few words, you get the idea again and again and this is a place where you see this mix of excitement. So this is the first thing that i try to do is give a sense of what is happening around the country and where its been, where its heading, whether the fight is over and Gas Developments are challenges facing Clean Energy Entrepreneurs or decisions about what cars to produce and detroit. The second thing that i have tried to do is understand and explain the changes we are seeing in energy and what it means for the big things that people care about. The economy and National Security and the environment and Climate Change. Ask questions like will the United States become Energy Independent and what will change with russia and china in the middle east and what can natural gas you what cant it do when it comes to combating Climate Change. How much jobs we have from clean energy in one of the themes that comes through is that we really are stuck in the past. I want to take one example of Energy Independence for 40 years they have failed within a decade or so. But i argue in the book that this wont actually make up independence in a meaningful sense of the word. As you know well, we have developed markets where we get our energy from far less important than it used to be. In civil civil war broke out, the type of oil increased by as much as the price of oil in the middle east. It is the case today that will be in the future. So i will say that while production is good for the economy and benefits National Security, it wont deliver Energy Independence because the world has changed. So that is the second reason i wrote the book here. To explain everything from the security to the environment the way the world is today. A third reason i wrote the book is that i wanted to make a point. I argue in the book that we need to decisively pick sides, that the real opportunity is at the other side is mostly downside and i make the case for what i call an approach energy does not blindly embrace everything, but its also part of weeding out the bad and dangerous. Im not going to take you stepbystep through the argument right now, but i want to explain the many reasons that we talk about. The first is that i worry that we wont get cracking right. There are smart ways to development and their families to development. If we do it the wroncoulg way see a backlash that prevents us from taking advantage of the opportunities that we now have. I was writing the book i visited with the mayr of Youngstown Ohio and hed hold me about how he had total Gas Development and he was excited that a new plan was going to develop. But he also told me about what happened when one company did a sloppy job of wastewater disposal and injection well and set off a 4. 0 magnitude tremor in and his house was damaged in the process. He said that you get a pot of gold and you dont want the pot of gold because they wanted an earthquake, they would have moved to california. The second thing he said was when i used to be a teacher and i told the kids, if you know the answer, then, if you dont, to say you say you dont know it. Nobody knows everything. And thats a really good message for people who want to succeed and i say that there is a good story with the right practices and rules to make sure all is. But we see a bit too much services and promises but not enough humility and people dont trust it. The second thing i worry about is that we will get lazy and its tempting to say that Climate Change and natural gases are cutting our missions. Can we focus on something else. People dont love fuel economy rules, they dont like it when government spends money trying to promote new cars and trucks and it could end our production on foreign oil and the how and when why do we spend our time doing something else. As i argue in the book it has been less expensive to curb the definition and transformation have made it drastically cheaper to make this more secure in the world. But this thing will not transform our system by themselves. They have opportunities that may change, but we still need to make decisions and pursue policies that would take full advantage of what is happening. One is writing the book i met with the secretarygeneral of opec and one of his colleagues also gave me a handful of i. T. Policies and those that noticed no that is not a good thing to do. And never put it in my computer. But after recovered myself, asked him what he think about what is going on in america and energy and particularly an oil. The first thing he said he was very concerned about our Water Quality and youd like us to Pay Attention to it in the second thing he said was maybe this is good news rest. Maybe you guys will blame us for your problems anymore. The speech was given in washington about a month or so ago where he said maybe you guys will stop hating oil and monkey went mentioned parties that may be you will stop trying to use less of this. The last thing i worry about is that we should pursue more than one thing at a time that we can pursue oil and Gas Production and Energy Efficiency in the same time with Economic Security and environmental payoff. Is that what you see is people focusing on taking down the other side and thats part of why we see this study focused on the keystone xl pipeline and part of what you saw last week in washington with flash funding and this was an effort supported not only by president obama but governor romney in the last campaign. His is not a conversation that we need to be having. I make an extended argument in the book for why we should sue different opportunities at the same time. I was writing the book ive met one person that capture that combination for me. I met with the ceo in any of you who have met someone who runs an electric car or Battery Company tends to brag a lot about the gas mileage they get. He said that i went to look at and i did the math and it was a nobrainer. I am lucky, he tells me. One of the five areas are between my home and work and not everyone will be able to take advantage of this. And he knows that there are limitations. So the same time that he uses us, he is pursuing a fully electric vehicle and i argue this is not just something that an individual can talk about at the same time but that is a country we could pursue this and what i worry about is that as we increasingly fall back, we will do the exact opposite. As we will have to decide to do a great job of tearing each other down and the ultimate result could be that we failed on the new opportunities with American Energy that we are creating. Thank you for coming out tonight. Thank you for your attention. Im not. [applause] is there a protocol for questions . People are filling out cards and we will compile them. While we do that, let me just get started with a question. Would you be so kind to talk a little bit more about the geopolitical implications of what increasing production means in relations with china and iran and russia and so forth. Okay, let me just say a few things. I think you need to think separately about oil and gas because natural gas is more balkanize, changes have bigger consequences. The United States has failed to merge as an imported, suppliers have created more competition in europe and together with existing infrastructure, we tend to give europe more leverage and we are not seeing a gap cut off like we did very long ago and of course the United States is not worrying as much about the gas market developments overseas and we didnt have nearly the same kind of alarms have United States been dependent upon importing natural gas. I think that we can speculate as to what the future holds for the Geopolitical Impact of natural gas around the world, particularly for the United States who emerges as an exporter and the consequences are smaller than the consequences of whats already happened from the United States not being an importer, in part because the question is asia and we have this in place really transform the market. I can talk more about that people would like to. On the oil side, too much of the discussion focuses on whether or not we will be Energy Independent. As i said in my remarks, but not the right thing to focus on. The bigger consequences have to do with the middle east. Countries will have to produce less with output when they will have to talk about the threat to the revenue and i can talk one debt but i think that that would have broad implications and be mostly stable in the region. The last thing i would say is that its important to focus not only on the underlying economic fundamentals, but on how leaders perceive them as well. The president has spoken with the National Security adviser, the secretary of state, all of them saying that we committed to Global Markets and we are part of a global system and we remain committed to trying to provide stability and provide a towel for energy but when you travel people are not convinced that that will be the case. When you talk to people in china they are not fully convinced that that will be the case. We will take measures that the United States will retrench regardless of what analysts and policymakers say about our intentions down the road. And i think that those perceptions have realworld consequences. Questions on policy and compliance. You can share any of your views on capandtrade or any other policy, that would be great. That is also a very good question. Let me talk about a couple basic things about politics. It is useful to me with Energy Supplies and how we deal with using energy. We should mostly be focused on increasing opportunities and creating new options and making sure that we have access to lands for development, for those needed to transport them and we should have Good Environmental rule make sure the development is sustainable and that we should provide Technology Development and innovation suite and maximize a set of options that we have, whether that is to improve our Economic Growth or make ourselves less vulnerable. I think that the main effort should be focused on the demand side of the equation. And i think that we should talk about it and we know that they cause damage and we know that we are only a piece of the global puzzle and what we do have to be a part of, we can take Cost Effective steps to reduce our missions. Whether you want to do that through a carbon tax or a capandtrade system, i think it is less important than making sure that you have flexible and ambitious policies that allow us to cut emissions. I also think we need policies to deter Oil Consumption because we know there are individuals decisions make us more vulnerable to security consequences and whether that is true with fuel economy standards or other measures, i am less interested in a specific policy and again, one that we are flexible. One thing is that we are bad at predicting our Energy Future and i mean, just think about what the discussion wouldve been five years ago. And we have policies that are resilient with surprising changes. Okay, now onto the science side. Everyone agrees that if you could go into a little bit more detail what this means and perhaps youre talking about a national or state framework with what you have encountered. Let me start with the second part. I think that most regulations should be done and we have video secrets these, i do think that the minimal standards make sense to stay doing a lot of the implementation and a lot of the details. The bad news is a marketing professional talked about this and it will have an impact on other parts of the country as well. I tend to focus on three different areas. The first is water and particularly what happens not with what goes into the ground, i think it is really interesting to look at the new rules in illinois you can disagree about the details. But one of the things that happens is that the rules were choir bob brown and what is interesting about that is that a few years ago people believed that the threat was what you put on the ground, at least as a primary water concern, then things it wouldnt have solved anything. But because we have a better understanding and communities have a better understanding, you actually can identify solutions and we are able to come around. Number two is in era missions and the bottom line is that the combined impact can be pretty bad. Particularly if people do not adopt the right technology to minimize a precursor week leak and i think that that is important. That has to do with Community Integration and this is something that we have to challenge everywhere, particularly challenging in places where a lot of people get very rich and others that what little rich and others have to face the consequences. So figuring this out whether by maintaining roads or providing Community College courses of people can get jobs in the industry, i think that is the key, which is extraordinarily important. Its when people get upset about those transformations that they start focusing more. A number of questions on the ageold debate of gas versus cool. I know the talk a lot about this. Can you talk about how much coal will be replaced by gas and the reality of this and sequestration and is that the radical or in Real Technology . Okay, so last april or may we had extremely low Natural Gas Prices and gas generations put about 40 into perspective in and the same with coal. In the last six months have had much higher Natural Gas Prices and it has pulled back substantially. If you look at the projections given current situations, people tend to force the natural gas not coming back for perhaps 10 years or more. So i think we will see increasing natural gas driven by relatively low Natural Gas Prices that have are to been put into place to have increasing impact. I dont think the sea natural gas from us or our bigger steps on public policy. The big one to watch is Clean Air Act regulations that exist in coalfired power plants. We are talking were talking about it this afternoon, the president s plan on this and the big question remains will this remain on making them more efficient. And i think that remains an open western. I dont think its an open question for those on the outside. And do you have a second question about coal and gas. So first it does not happen at scale that scale must have a carbon policy and a widget that you attach that you say is less efficient and more costly. As we have seen a failure in a big way because it requires government outset and we have very large chunks of the project and it was very expensive. That is not a recipe for successful innovation. One of the things that i find interesting about what is happening now is that with Natural Gas Prices, it becomes plausible to think about that. Not something that was thought about a lot in the policy world. What natural gas has on the edge is the fact that you can do it in smaller increments. That means you can use the same amount of support and it would be more likely to lead to greater innovation and other interesting innovations are that High Oil Prices create an opportunity to use Carbon Dioxide and if we can support of this side of it, at the same time as one of the places where it still hasnt quite taken root and its hardly known as a rural oil group and increase u. S. Oil production by roughly 2 Million Barrels a day. To topics that may or may not have anything to do with each other. The exporting out of this country and the domestic production, if you could talk about how significant the Global Impact is. Let me connect them in and talk about that. I doubt that china will choose to become heavily dependent upon natural gas. It is a discretionary choice even if it cares about environmental impacts with scrubbers and i think that even more than that it will engaged with those and a few attorneys defense partner, you worry about this war with the United States in a rigid market for this country and i think the potential is probably limited. Only say one more thing about china. Its a separate question of how we can produce domestically. It is easy to make big estimates when you dont know a lot about what is underground and i think that we will see what can actually be produced at a reasonable cost and the chinese resources are in places that dont have a lot of water or infrastructure and they dont have the infrastructure for taking the gas out of the market. On top of that exact geology there and how Productive Resources will be, we talk about the circumstances that have allowed the development and how it might not be replicated in other parts of the world. I will say one thing that china has going for it is the United States benefited from flexible markets and it does not exist in china, but china has an alternative site financing model was in china has that one opportunity. Huge issue and ongoing debates in washington about how much to improve and there are two basic points that we are keeping in mind. Economics is hard to make a case that the costs outweigh the benefits but its also difficult to make in our at windsor all that large were once you and it is not all that large and stimulate marginal production that are limited. So im not over estimate that as well. The biggest keep in mind when we are talking about this is a mean for energy and beyond that. United states prevailed over china and getting it in pursuing its restrictions on Raw Materials and we are trying to reduce restrictions on this and other convenient technicalities that allow us to say that we will put restrictions on us, but at a minimum, the we will have an argument. If we said that we are going to restrict that support to help our economy and help our manufacturing, reduce environmental impact, we will be communicating the chinese with different materials into the equation her side i think that now is the time that we are in a very bad position. It is worth remembering that despite what is happening, we depend on Global Markets and a well functioning one at that. You mentioned with some optimism additional infrastructure and the need for that. You think private industry is government subsidy needed . I mentioned that with optimism. [laughter] i would not say that i am hugely optimistic about that. What he said is i am he saidf the Spokane Valley area. Even if im driving by myself and so it is fairly challenging. There are a set of things i would be looking at this where the chicken and egg infrastructure process is less daunting. I am really interested to see what happens with natural gas and i think there are some big barriers to investors who might look at doing not. They would look at instruction costs, most thinkers i know tell me someone comes to them with a project they dont want to touch, i think a lot will be decided based on how successful they ultimately are. Is there a final question . Any stories you can share with us . I will tell one story. I advise the Second Season of 24. I remember one day and this is early on, fox is not buying the full season of time. But you have the shows going on and they would still be writing the last episode and i got a call one day on my cell phone and they said that we have a nuclear bomb on an airplane and we have to decide if we are going to crack this into the desert or into the ocean and i looked around nervously and i said, you commie at the airport and maybe will have this conversation another time. So weve actually had it. I the airport. But they called and said, okay. Ocean or does there come and i said definitely ocean. They said thats fantastic. And they called me back within a week or two later that we have looked into it and its too expensive and we are going to have to crash this point in the desert and can you come up with a reason we should not put it in the ocean and what about making sure that we dont harm the fish. And i said what about saying that we are visiting the area. And they went with it there is a lesson that you should take and Television Dramas do not have a lot of influences. We think everyone on the council tonight. Thank you. [applause] [inaudible conversations] booktv is on facebook, like a sore interact with our viewers. Watch videos and get uptodate information on the bends. Facebook. Com booktv. What are you reading this summer. Booktv wants to know. Well, i just read a book which i thought was magnificent. Im about to start reading an old book called the pity of it all. There is a book that is coming out in the fall by gregg easterbrook. The title of it escapes me. Im sorry. I love him, i think he is a fabulous writer and i cant wait to dig into that. Its a book that just came out via really smart individual about the that a lot battle of crime. So im just really excited to read that as well. Post on our Facebook Page or send us an email at booktv cspan. Org. We are joined via skype today. On wednesday it was ruled that apple violated antitrust laws. Can you give us some background on this case and what it means to Book Publishers . Sure, back in april of 2012 there were five publishers, including harpercollins and has shed conspiring with apple to raise the prices as part of setting up the agency model and getting this into the bookstore. What ended up transpiring over this in june is that the department of justice tried to prove that apple was essentially the ringleader of this conspiracy and that a meeting with these publishers with other communications that they all conspired to raise the ebook prices. So the publishers had actually settled with the department of justice beforehand and apple was talking about the trial and what was interesting is just before the trial happened, there was an individual that ruled that apple did indeed conspire conspired to fix prices. So was interesting in that it seems that they were trying to mitigate against the initial viewpoint, but in the end this ruling was handed down and here was july 10 when the ruling came down. So in the end it became a permanent view and apple had a part in this. We have talked about this in the past for viewers just looking about this. Can you give us an understanding of what that means . Yes. The way that the prices were handled was under the wholesale model. The reason why these publishers were upset is because amazon was discounting bestsellers and brandnew titles and publishers felt like the wholesale model is not working for them and it was going to affect Profit Margins and the like. Apple likes to take 30 and that is what they ended up doing with the bookstore so retailers cannot change the price, but what they can do is essentially act as the agent. What is interesting than it is producing smaller revenues and they felt that it gave every retailer in ads. Whether it was apple or sony or you name it, what actually ended up happening was there was more entrants into the ebook market worries in 2009 that looked like no one else was going to enter the picture. Going back to the recent ruling from yesterday or wednesday. You talked about the publishers who are also part of this case and they were before this trial and they decided to hold out and following this ruling, they said when they introduced this in 2010, they gave customer more choice in the market and this included a monopolistic grip on the Publishing Industry and we have done nothing wrong and we will appeal judges decision. You think they have a case of appeal . It will be interesting to see if they do the judge was very clever and that she made it very clear that all she was really interested in was what transpired in the weeks between late 2009 and 2010. Others were worried that this would affect their business or how would come up in a great way during because that was one of the key hot issues. They basically said we are going to do this, we want to make sure how it works of some retailer decides to change the price and we will have first dibs on matching in as well. So there was some worry that it might be in play as a result of this hearing. It seems like the opinion would not be a happy thing. But it seems like she set herself up to have this case on her hands. So it seems as if there may not be as much latitude. However, i am not a lawyer and we have not seen what apple will file but im sure they will make interesting arguments as to why the ruling should be thrown out. Amazon has always been a part of this and what has happened because of the publishers settling just today, we reported that they have adjusted their ebook crisis an apartment with the department of justice. It seems as though prices have gone down. What this case has done as it has not thrown the agency model away yet in the back water. It had specific deals that these publishers and by proxy random house users what it has done is made them renegotiate deals and come up with a different spin on the agency model. Because essentially it is still acting as an agent. But there is still room for latitude. So its part of both the agency and wholesale model as we come back. So the agency model is not dead. And do publishers think that the current prices are sustainable in a. I think it is important to point out that it was something as a metaphor, a great many prices are higher than not. And the key was many of the brandnew titles that kept coming up during the tile was at the time something that Simon Schuster felt threatened by which had a list price of 35 at such a low cost and that is why they did this. They delayed the ebook release and it doesnt seem terribly likely that it will come back. Especially as there are other things that concern them with Health Reforms now that their ceo has resigned and there are a great many things that are already settled. So there are publishers working on a new model and how do they Work Together on this room . I have no knowledge as to what they are working on. I am sure that they will probably be more lawyers present than there were already. Final question. Have the consumers noticed a market difference . I think one thing is interesting to point out and was brought to our attention in the Publishing Industry if lets say they go to the trial and they are hit with many hundreds of millions of dollars and eight in total settled for 166 million and there would be several times over that. So with hundreds of millions of dollars that would be given out from the department of justice itself, their charges were not in terms of monetary value and conspiracy and the like. So then it would operate that way when lets say god and ebook that was questionable and there was a fair amount of money and who will benefit from this . Customer spending money . Welcome the publishers. It is not with the department of justice intended. You can follow her on twitter into the publishers marketplace. She joins us via skype from new york. And i thank you for having me. Heres a look at some books are being published this week. Into parties and a funeral plus plenty of valet parking, Mark Leibovitz provides an inside look at media and politics in washington dc. In the u. S. China relations is discussed at the Wisconsin University presenting the history of chinas economy chinas long march to the 21st century. And president john f. Kennedys life in jfk last hundred days. The transformation of a man and the emergence of a great president. In the longest road from key west to the arctic ocean, a collection of interviews from travels across the country on what keeps america united. And a senior fellow and individual Security Affairs outlines 30 years of military aggression in taking on iran, strength, diplomacy and the iranian threat. Look for these titles in bookstores this week and watch for the authors on booktv and im booktv. Org. Would be reading this summer . Heres what some of you have to say