freezing. i'm direct arab world affairs council. chinese firms, many state owned are going global in case you haven't figured that out by now. they are purchasing commodities, investing resources in accessing archives. china has become one of the top investors in africa, south america and eastern europe. the top foreign holder of u.s. debt and is speculated to be buying up the record quantity of old. with a limited amount of resources on the line, but does china's race for resources and for the rest of the world? for 60 years to the world affairs council has wrote in understanding and engagement in greater seattle to programs for teachers, student delegates to meet with local community members and organizations and public programs like this one tonight. programs made possible through sponsorships and community and we would like to think microsoft for their support. would also like to thank our co-presenters for promotional support and they include the greater seattle chinese chamber of commerce, university of washington's african studies programs in the evans school of public affairs and seattle university asian studies and global african studies program. as we do with all the vents in order to reach a larger advance than the one here tonight, we will treat this event from seattle. the hash tag will be more your whack. if you're on twitter, joined, asked questions, engage. we believe dialogue and discussion are critical in developing a better understanding of the world and i am by you to participate in the conversation. we will do open q&a for tonight's event and the volunteers passing around a wireless microphone. we also have no cars available if you prefer to write down your question and pass question impasto volunteer device for you. moderating tonight will be dr. and not god, professor of international studies at the university of washington. between 2002 and 2010 he was director of international studies. prior to joining university of washington, he taught at briar college and university of utah, where he was chair of the history department subsequently director of his asian studies program. dr. young was born in india of chinese parents, grew up and attended school in new delhi and finished high school in mexico city before moving to the united states to attend college. truly an international citizen joining us tonight. but that a quick introduction of our speaker. an international economist at focuses on the macroeconomy global affairs. she is the author of "the new york times" bestseller, dad a coma by a does not work in a now there's a better way for africa. she also just let me know that her new book just hit the bestseller list today -- yesterday i believe. in 2009 she was named by "time" magazine as one of the 100 most influential people in the world. she's regularly published in the "financial times," the economist magazine in "the wall street journal." she completed phd in economics at oxford university and holds a masters degree from harvard university. he showed me in welcoming debbie some oil to the stage. [applause] >> hello, good evening. i'm not too sure i like the idea . in any case, it's a pleasure to be back in seattle. this is the first of many that it's actually freezing cold. disappointed about back in the thank you to microsoft in the world affairs counselor. appreciate the opportunity to be back here and to speak to you about what i think is the most important issue will be facing in the decades to come, which is commodity scarcity. i originally had not planned to use lives because they think it can belabor the issue, but in retrospect, i have some sideswiping her fantastic and illustrate a lot of what the story is, so i hope you'll indulge me and i also hope you'll be engaged enough and interested enough to push back on questions during the q&a. in terms of what i've got to do this evening, i would like to basically break the discussion into three parts. first of all spend time giving you a global snapshot of where demand and supply of the resources land in particular, water, energy and minerals so that when we discuss the china's doing a site in the context of our global demand is. and secondly, i would focus specifically on what china's specific command is. that would be a good lead going for an aggregate macro world picture to drilling down into our specific china picture. is that better? finally, they could spend time talking about ongoing issues. i classify this to two areas. i will spend time specifically detailing the three-pronged approach to securing resources around the world and then i will spend a little time talking about the more crunchy racial issues, things like the church is a neo-colonialist land, labor and environmental issues china is often accused of, you say prisoners and so on can assert a motivating the discussion of where there might be an army should. in any case i hope you enjoy the evening and will enjoy the opportunity to speak more about what's going on around the world. so i'm going to start on the global demand picture. there are three key aspects, three key factors driving global demand. the first is you can see from the side is the global population. the world population, roughly 7 billion today is expected to skyrocket 29 billion people by 2015. you can also see from the pictures i have in front of you but a lot of the demand pressure will be coming from the emerging market. today almost 90% of the population lives in the emerging world i'm not trying will continue with roughly 12% of the worlds population in developed economies. i want to state very clearly an upfront that the population growth is an aberration, something that has not been seen in historical context and many sociologists and demographers believes that it will not be seen again after a plateau out at around 10 million people on the planet by 2100. i really like to quote in a futile as we have agreed a basis colleges. i think a sociologist and his statement is as follows. the extraordinary proliferation of the human species cannot fail to be recognized as some of the principal features of modern world history. in historical perspective, it appears a unique episode in the growth of the species since its origin and has no parallel in history or prehistory for the speed and magnitude of expansion of numbers and it seems highly unlikely that a comparable expansion will occur again in the future after the present trend has run its course. reiterating for my team 86, what we are dealing with now is a very unique set of circumstances the 1950s and 1960s population is 3 billion. we are now at seven and s. imaginable put in mine and possibly 10 by 2100. unique circumstances and this is why some working to understand what this means for the world. the second key aspect of key factor driving demand is global wealth. not only are we getting larger in terms of population, but a lot more people are becoming wealthier. estimates are we'll have an additional 3 billion new people in the middle class by 2030, which is just around the world. it really is important to look at how those people who like to live like us in this room can achieve western standards of living, how those demand pressures will be felt on the global resource supply. as you can see from the five presented here, a lot of that demand pressure for baylor should follow from the current metaclasses in asia and africa, but you can also see places like eastern europe will have urchin creases and middle class. the third key aspect to demand pressure is urbanization. a lot of people are poor at the chinese in particular have embarked on a large systematic program to organize more rapidly. i put the chart appear to illustrate how significant organizations not only china but and the rest the emerging world. you can see from the chart of the others on this 100 in china that had a million plus citizens living there, the united states has nine it is like that. europe only 18. the emerging world more generally will be the place where there's much more urbanization. but they face many cities in asia, the world expects by 2032 had 3 billion new urbanites moving the number from 3 billion up to 5 billion people in urban areas. the pressure on commodities are environments, battered buildings, but also in terms of agriculture, as we know people who are in urban areas expect to have clean water to the attacks, but also better quality food. again, and massive transfer in terms of where we keep pressures for resources. i talked about the population growth, tax about wealth increases in organizations. these are the three key drivers on the demand side. let's talk about what happens on supply. i mentioned earlier for categories that supply across the commodity index that i think are interesting. land, water, energy and minerals. let me for a few minutes go through some of the key aspects that characterize these different assets from it a little bit. land is 13 billion shares equivalent to 16 times the united states. however, on the 11%, 1.4 billion is a ripple and that is engraved in good food. one of the things we take for granted as they are not fighting for air berlin, but also animals and plants need to thrive in excess and more than i did see now, the area of the land that we do have access to is that beanies to grow crops. but do i mean by that? the urban areas built are actually built on arab land. the amount of area ball and a sister to see population can you need to rise significantly bold basically said what through more people are through none through approach is the key challenge for the next decade. just two months ago, the united states department of intelligent and i will give you the latter announced in a report that they fear some of the biggest water -- wars in the world of the next several decades will be around water. i will talk about conflict, but suffice it to say that as a stand here or sit here today 325 were screeching around the world that had their origin in commodities. we expect many more because of the fresh water shortage. to put it into context, 70% of the earths is water. however, less than 1% of the water is given available for equality for not just drinking and sustenance, but also just for sanitation. love someone%. as you can imagine, a lot of water is very difficult to access in places such as rivers not visible. so water is a massive, massive problem that shortage is expected. energy, a few lives in the bay co., energy prices when they reach $4 a gallon. if you think about policy issues as they pertain to commodity shortages, you think about the emerging world, water is a much bigger issue than energy. there's places like india, across africa where water is rationed. if