Robberson coming in at 70 respectively. Running out the 2013 nonfiction bestsellers include the five love languages by gary chapman and recount of his years of a navy s. E. A. L. The entrance sniper in american sniper. That is a list of 2013 top nonfiction bestsellers according to the nelson bookscan. This is a little over one hour for our next program. [applause] thank you for the kind and generous introduction. It is a pleasure to be with you today. We has been raising funds in finding the best people was marred his ideals and around a broad how to reduce the nuclear threat. Very Public Foundation and rely on donations of generous donors. If either of you have money or need money please see me after words. [laughter] i am here today i have written into book called Nuclear Nightmares reese built a special web site for it called Nuclear Nightmares book. Com and it keeps you and idea to explore the main themes so you can go to the web site to track the other events around the country or see articles that are written i would like to give you a brief overview of what this book is about and i want to focus maybe half of the talks on the subject of iran baby that is something we want to talk about. It is in the news and the most pressing nuclear challenge. I would guess very few of you woke up this morning thinking about Nuclear Weapons. What would you . Most people think of Nuclear Weapons as a leftover from the cold war that dont have much to do with our current security challenges. Thinking in terms of islam and think that threat that they represented to have programs in place that can deal with these threats. It is understandable we dont think about these any more. We are confronted it at the every day before rebel challenges in our personal lives, a family, a community , but of all the threats sam problems we face every day there are only to do that threaten devastation on a planetary scale. Global warming and Nuclear Weapons. These can affect our lives in unprecedented ways. They threaten dramatic change is the worst should have been with the question if we can continue to live. Caused by machines that we invented a. These threats are preventable or reversible require new ways of thinking and pulled government leaders to put policy into place. I will talk today about the Nuclear Threats that we face. We ignore these threats if you think somebody else is taking care of this and we dont have to worry about this, think again. Think again. The risk of a Nuclear Accident or use of a Nuclear Weapon is low but should it be used again in the world would have devastating physical, financial, politic al impact. There is generally three categories of threats, the National Security strategy of the United States shows the greatest threat to United States faces is for Nuclear Weapons specifically to the terrorist group could get one to use it on the u. S. City. Nuclear 9 11. Also new states to acquire the weapons may be will not use restraint to use limited regional conflict or to spread and the United States. We often think of firebrand it is building the technological capability should they decide to do so and north korea that in the past 10 years has conducted three nuclear test and is on the verge. For this reason the National Security strategy said this has to be our top priority and i have to mitt the policies of the United States have not matched. The United States itself does not focus that much attention on these threats. The president of United States tried to change that when he came into office. President obamacare into office having worked in the senate on Nuclear Policy. One of the first things he did was speak doubt choose senator lugar and asked him to take him along when he went to the former states of the soviet union to watch our Government Programs were hoping to control, the contained, you eliminate the threat of them left over Nuclear Weapon or materials. Obama was deeply affected by that and started to adopt that as one of his primary causes. He also worked for republican senator chuck hagel as one of the nonproliferation legislation ever presented in that relationship continues today as the secretary is now secretary of defense and Richard Lugar is still a close confidante to the president. In fact, president obama focused on Nuclear Policy in his very first National Security threat in prague 2009 and there he laid out a vision level for the World WithoutNuclear Weapons in he married that vision up with practical measures to address various aspects of the threat. The first of the two of the really good news they cannot build a from scratch siddur have the facilities or the infrastructure. It takes an Industrial Facility and gigawatt of energy to make that material. It takes a nation to build the material. But if a terrorist gang get the material with a relatively easier step there is no shortage of suicide bombers. As he proved pledges to bring World Leaders with that stockpile to eliminate that wherever possible. With that new proliferation efforts to have unified efforts to secure Nuclear Material to prevent that. He focused on north korea and iran and the actions he then took to have those sanctions on iran as a result we now have the toughest sanctions on iran ever imposed on any country anytime. It tightens the noose on iran with the bargaining table in geneva. Third platform the third element is reducing the existing nuclear arsenal. We dont think much about this. We used to have 30,000 it is now been reduced weeder legal fate of these weapons but they were threatening into ways. As long as he maintain huge arsenals we give the incentive to other countries to build up their own arsenals but to require them if theyre so valuable or a central it is a relationship long recognized between herself and this weapon that is the danger of accidental use or miscalculation. Just two quick examples of b52 bombers on a routine mission flying from my not Airforce Base in north dakota carrying six cruise missiles flying to dash air force base in the we see anna to eliminate these missiles they were put out of commission. They accidentally loaded not conventional cruise missiles and nuclear arms there were seven different safety checks that should have prevented this that were all broken. The crew did not know they reverted, the pilot did not know the private flew to the Airforce Base and spent the night on the tarmac with just a normal security with the barbed wire fence but not until the next day a crew member noticed on the nose cone there was a red dot to signify a Nuclear Warhead which to his commander in the commander did not believe him then they realized what a serious mistake had been made. Theyre really bad news is up in my not they never knew there were missing intel they got the call. A colleague of mine from Strategic Air command said if you would have asked him before if it was possible he would say absolutely not. This is the kind of accident that can happen and if this can happen did United States who has the best commandandcontrol system than what about russia . Pakistan . The country was 100 Nuclear Weapons in the unstable government collapsing economy was strong fundamentalist influences as al qaeda operates inside its National Territory with an ongoing conflict to with india. Accident or mr. Undulation or collapsed to allow terrorists to get these weapons is a real and present danger but could be worse. In 1955 the government in norway fired off a routine weather rocket. With the u. S. Launched nuclear arms missile and that is exactly how it starts coming across detonating a Nuclear Weapons supply. They alerted Boris Yeltsin at that time and for the first time in history opened up the nuclear football, that suitcase that follows the president of United States all around with command a huge control but to launch through the country they told Boris Yeltsin that russia was under attack a and he should abolish the nuclear missile. Fortunately he was not drug. He did not believe what he was told and wasted for more information is awaited a and we did it became clear. We dodged a nuclear bullet parker very Large Nuclear bullet. This misunderstanding happens from the west and russia the what would happen now with a future scenario if there is another failure of the Early Warning system in russia . The accident, this calculation that we still live with the damocles that kennedy warned us about hangs over our head and we have to take action to the lowest level possible to secure the Nuclear Material and to take the strongest possible action to stop new countries from getting these weapons. You have to do this all together. You cannot go around playing nuclear whackamole. You have to do this together. Reducing our weapons is unjust corporation you have to prevent new countries from getting materials and securing in preventing security conditions that you need to give them what they could use. We could eliminate weapons they no longer serve a valid military purpose. I cannot think of any military mission that now requires us to use a Nuclear Weapon. There hasnt been for 60 years. No one has used a Nuclear Weapon in 60 years despite ferocious wars and some of which we fought having our National Interest at stake. Having our allies at risk. Not once have we relied on a Nuclear Weapon to solve the problem. You dont have to believe me. Maybe i am wrong 10 or 50 the be 500 just in case . We have 5,000 in our active arsenal it is wildly out of proportion to our needs. You may think it is a margin of safety of life to have not just sit cost if we can get other countries to cooperate but Nuclear Weapons are not cheap. The United States today spends 55 billion per year on all the Nuclear Weapons and related programs including operating, maintaining, a building, developing, antim issile systems complex yvette, environmental consequences, they cost about 55 billion per year but that is not the bad news. What you have to consider is the future cost. We have a nuclear financial tsunami headed our way. We are about to make decisions whether to replace the existing triad of submarines and bombers and missiles reaching the end of their operational life. The contractors in charge are doing their job coming up with replacement programs. That is what they are supposed to do to make sure our britons are the best possible weapons in the safest condition to do the missions that we assign them as president. So now they work their way through congress in the budget that the congress is considering this month on the Defense Authorization act is almost 1 billion for the development of a new submarine to launch Nuclear Missiles well into the middle of the next century. The Current System of boats is to retire 2020. If you want a replacement you have to start now for something this big so thats in 2030 the boat goes into the water. That is for 12 nucleararmed submarines. A the it navy estimates the lifetime cost is 350 billion. If you include all the programs being considered missiles, bombers, icbm, obie will spend 1 trillion in the triad over the next 40 or 50 years. 1 trillion. Is that we want the money to go . Are there more conventional military needs that is a Better Service . I believe there are. I believe these are choices we have to make. Former vice chairman of the egregious joint chiefs. Is it something that i said . [laughter] former head of the Strategic Command said over the next three or four years reading if you lock them in Everybody Knows they build up the constituency it is hard to turn the programs off. As long as they Pay Attention to this tell your members of congress if you want to build these Nuclear Weapons or if you agree with me you want to slow this down. You want to wait for the policy to catch up with the procurement and close the gap to get a policy in place to give us a Nuclear Weapons we need and no more than we need. This is a big consideration consideration, a budget buster i am worried about. Another threat that we face from the Nuclear Weapons. Western to i rand. Clearly the most pressing issue we face to lurk in the background. We finding a group called we think media. And of all the stories of Nuclear Policy, a 70 percent are on iran. If you think iran is the greatest threat you have reason to think that most of what youve read, i dont have to think that. It is a concern by a much more worried about pakistan and the country that already has 100 Nuclear Weapons there is a chapter called the most dangerous country and earth it is about pakistan in the book Nuclear Nightmares. But the most pressing issue it becomes a critical policy point this if we get this right there are your enormous benefits to play out that go beyond the Nuclear Program. Strategic openings that could develop on policy issues. But could we stop by ran from getting a Nuclear Weapon . If we dont we risk destabilizing the of middle east and then it will follow but if we do we could solve a problem on the Nuclear Scale in the best president since carter to make a deal. Every president has wanted to make a deal with the iranians but this president is the first one to do it but it is temporary. Fragile and ships from geneva to weeks ago. I rand agreed the consultations with the five permanent members of the u. N. Security Council Invited states, france and russia and the United Kingdom and germany 55 1 in negotiations with the six countries it would basically freeze the Nuclear Program. But they do not have the over to program not like the Manhattan Project or the north korean project or the russians. The iranians have been fooling round with the Technology Since the time of the shot. According to intelligence estimates they did dedicated work on Nuclear Weapons, warhead design, uranium metal is only used in warheads is the impressive regime of numerous and vicious acts. The u. S. Intelligence concludes that dedicated Weapons Program ended 2003 and has not been restarted. But it does have a program to requires a technology to build the material to go into a Nuclear Weapon. It is an open program. They have long history and we have a long history of finding them. So they have several sites of the enrichment facilities. Because of the students better here i will pause to do a physics, chemistry, Nuclear Technology lesson. What is enriching uranium . It is important to understand this more than the threat. What is the centrifuge . They look like water heaters butter thinner and made tough to withstand the pressures they encounter. The way you enriched uranium is dig it out of the mines. Iran has the dash but then natural uranium you cannot use it in a Nuclear Power reactor. There is a rare isotope called u235. Less than 1 has this u235 is the isotope or the atom that goes pop and splits in half to shoots off other neutron said its others and must import the previous use nuclear energy. One atom is not much but trillions there in trillions is what youre after. You have to get more u235 get those closer together and to do that by taking their uranium out of the ground to put it into a guest it had to put it into a centrifuge. Expensive around the heavier elements go to the outside and the lighter u235 stays in the middle. You siphon out the middle now you have guest that is slightly higher ratio of u235. Slightly enriched u235. Then you have to feed into another centrifuge, then another then another then another if you lined up a few thousand into this fourth performance, now you get to the prop months then you could have a guest that is three or 5 enriched u235. You can stop right there. Taken up the gas internet into a powder form and put it the pellets into the fuel rod and put that into a Nuclear Reactor then they start to undergo fission and they get hot. Real hot. They turn the water into steam thatchers the turbine and bang. Electricity. Iran says that is all it is doing it is just making fuel once Nuclear Power like the big boys have. They can sell it and what is wrong with that . The problem is if you keep the same centrifuge going you can gingrich to a higher grade of 20 that forms a reactor fuel for a different type of reactor and iran is doing that as well. You can do that all the way to 90 percent if you take it out then you turn into a metal it is the size of a grapefruit with a core of a nuclear bomb. Same machine, a st. Facility, the same process. Fuel for the bomb. Do you trust iran . The question, the answer is we dont. Look at their track record. This is not a question of trust but finding a way to stop them from doing that. One way is to get rid of all the enrichment facilities of the zero option. I deal. You raise it to the ground to make sure they can never do it again. Because have had that 2003 when they first came to us was no such fears we could have had that in 2005 when they only had a few hundred in a Test Facility they actually proposed the we were not interested at that point. Under the bush and administration as Vice President dick cheney said the dont negotiate, of the defeats with all of these oppressive regimes one after the other so that strategy did not work out so well. By the end of the bush in administration they went from 03 thousand if they are still building but that is why we have a problem at this point no politician in the iran can possibly agree to give up this facility that they spent maybe 100 billion on to become a huge source of national pride. You have to find a way to back them down to give them the facesaving way out to shrink the facility to make sure that they only use it for fuel endeavor for but a bomb. Can introduce that . That is a challenge. That is what is going on in geneva and it is often a good start. P interim agreement for as freezes the program in place. To save is completed in six months make sure the iranians are not backed up so they are not advancing while were talking. They are now prohibited from making any more centrifuges centrifuges, installing, or turning on any that they have put in place that are not yet operational. They also have agreed in a further vote enriched uranium they produce turned into a powder so it cannot be used later are makes it more difficult later to be used for a bomb. Also other areas to stop work on another kind of reactor to make plutonium another possible component but most importantly they have opened up more facilities to International Inspectors and they have agreed to do the inspections. Now they go every day or they can once the big a deal begins 2014. Theyre really good news is the program rolls back. You remember benjamin that donny of you going to the podium september 2012 of page drawing of a bobby was very dramatic of on the front page of every paper around the world he had a red line and he warned iran was building up a stockpile of 20 your writ enriched uranium if they built up a certain amount it could quickly convert that is the ears and thread this deal stops that threat entrains mr. Netanyahu baum and they agreed to get rid of 20 percent enrichment that they have by to the down to converting it into a force they cannot use into a bomb for e. Verify that by the inspectors going there every day to make sure theyre not doing it. Phalanx since the fuse to make it harder for our brand if iran decided today they want to take that to make enough for one baum they could do that in three of four months that now we know theyre doing we would see them at halftime to take appropriate action. That is the benefit. It doesnt stop or eliminate their capabilities but caps it and rolls the back to the greater inspection and transparency. In exchange, we have the members of the Security Council in the United States have the unfrozen some of vibrations assets like foreign assets like banks in the European Union that have been since 2006. We give them 7 billion of their own money. That is a lot of money. It is not that much. If they blocked the 100 billion that is still frozen get rid of the sanctions that blocks are ran from in the International Business getting out of the International Banking system to transfer money from a Checking Account to your savings account online iran cannot do that. They cannot transfer money. That cripples their international economy. If they point relief on their real sales on their daily sale going from 2. 5 Million Barrels to less than 1 Million Barrels they have lost 60 percent of the revenue. If they want to get that back to have to come back to sign a deal. In addition they would be left with some of the enrichment capability substantially smaller and substantially contained. Some facilities have to close we have to deal with the reactor probably closing it and much tougher inspections than any nation has now also is rectors can go anywhere to make sure there are no secret facilities. That is the of wind of the deal. This will be tough. But i think we would get the deal for several reasons number 1b iran economy is crippled they brought them to the table. They did their jobs. Dont thank you can crush a country by sanctions alone. It has never happened. No country has ever been coerced. They are a tool. Now you use the lever to make a deal then have tripled their economy. The value of their currency has dropped by 16 percent 16 percent, unemployment up by 35 percent 60 percent of their population is under 35 and 50 percent are unemployed. New regime can survive with 50 of its use not working. That is a regime threat. Their Economic Growth was dash 5 . That is why the iranian people elected a a new leader this in june. It is not like Saddam Hussein ruled iraq. Theres a certain amount of democracy that happened in the election the iranian people picked their president theyve elected him over the other five every year much closer to the hardline views of the most moderate leader candidate of for office they elected him with over 150 he won over the next closest opponent three one i had dinner with him in new york in september with a group of 30 or 40 we gathered in that to him i met him previously in tehran in 2005 as a nuclear negotiator. I would not call him a moderate to or reformer he is a cleric, he is a pragmatist and has the confidence of the supreme leader. He is not like of it in a shot the holocaust deniers who is the on cider but will develop a power base to challenge the cleric. He understands the mandate he has been given in the near a window to fix the economy and also knows there is a consensus to fix the economy with the easy to. I believe there has been a strategic shift in iran that recognizes that the regimes survival relies on fixing the economy reintegrated with the west, not pursuit of a Nuclear Program. For their own interests they are willing to deal on this program in order to gain what they believe is a more sound basis. I look at that strategic drive for the major reason why we get a deal also the people who are negotiating for i wray and iran are very good negotiators and understand the limits of what we cant give. We will not make unrealistic demands. John kerry has proved to be a remarkable secretary of state tackling tough emissions that people thought were impossible. For example, getting rid of serious chemical weapons people considered impossible that will happen by the end of this month with these stockpiles and to deal by december 31st drive is a very good bargain. That is what the other nations of the world want to see a United Nation that is united with the Security Council history tells us it is just a few companies but when they splinter in the of run up to set 2003 as iraq or using provisions only then that you see the sanctions that is why it is very important to retain that unity and why we impose new sanctions now. Here is another thing the debate in Congress Agrees to pile on new sanctions. There is some very well meaning as senators that believe if you pile on those sanctions you not only break the interim agreement to negotiate a final agreement that break the u. N. Security council. We will be seen as wrecking a deal from fat receive the you hope to strangle iran with . We are penalizing other countries who are trading with iran. If you buy a rands irans oil youre not allowed to do business without with our financial institutes of we pile on more sanctions and the deal falls apart with south korea, japan, europe, china korea, japan, europe, china, it will not go down. What sounds like a good idea one sanctions brought them to the table is actually a selfdefeating strategy in an baffles the regime you can see why they choose not to decrease the Nuclear Program to go back to the hardline position they want to pursue any way. If you are a student if you care about National Security i congratulate you and your timing. There is rarely a moment of history that is this exciting but you can see the hinge of history moving. Were now in such a moment. The fears of a rapprochement with iran to open up a way to manage our differences and a way to cooperate on the strategic interest that we both share to stabilize afghanistan, preventing the return of the taliban to stabilize iraq and control the situation in syria, a Palestinian Peace peace, transforming geopolitics of the region can transform the of world. The end of that is automatic. The things that you thought were frozen that you thought were impossible are in play. I know you think i am an optimist because of what i have seen. I have lived long enough to see the impossible happened. It happens routinely. Ic the vietnam war and one dash end with reconciliation icy germany unite to to overthrow dictatorships i saw the soviet union collapsed protestants and catholics who swore never, never never shake hands to rule of Northern Ireland i see a man walked out of prison cell that was held 28 years and become the elected president by majority rule to free south africa. I have seen that Carolina Panthers went eight games in a row. [laughter] dont tell me it is impossible. Is just hard. Think you very much. It is a pleasure to talk with you today. [applause] as you queue up your questions we have a microphone in the back for anyone who has questions. We will not leave until the get a question from a student or to. I am a board member of the World Affairs council and just says you are getting ready to ask your questions questions, if you are not a member we need you to be. That is especially true of everyone in this room but also those watching on cspan. Sign up on our web site and the will be glad to send alerts that come not regular they. Follow what is going on with the exciting things in our community. This is a spectacular plays. There is remarkable level thinking going on here. With fat buds open for questions. There is one of right over here thin then we will get the answer from joe. That was very interesting. My father was a marine in the 40s i want to hear your take how we did use the bomb back then i went to hear your viewpoints that part of history. My father served in world war ii as well as of Bombing Mission over normandy in europe. And died of a war related injury. One of our Advisory Board members George Shultz and secretary of state was ever been on a transport ship headed to japan for the invasion of japan when he heard the news of this new weapon that they believed had ended the 04. To this day he believes that saved his life and the lives of many others. It is the on going historic controversy if we needed to use the bomb. I completely understand why we did it. But by the time we use. The weaponry never intended to use it was to defend ourselves the on the bill to it because we thought hitler was building and we needed to get a device that was similar to deter him. The Manhattan Project cannot conceive of anyone using a weapon like this book by the end of the war, if immolated hundreds of thousands of people after the talk the races seemed like one more weapon but turns out that was not that strategic Decision Just automatic. Historians say that truman never actually voted for the to drop the bomb he never stopped it wants the trade was in ocean. Some of the scientists who built the baum wrote a report to a few months before urging the government not to use it to show the world if you use it without the International Control regime we will see a flying start to a Nuclear Arms Race with a few years delay that is exactly what happened. One of the consequences is to let off be insane Nuclear Arms Race with the soviet union and the United States that developed a bomb soon after then by the 1980s with 70,000 Nuclear Weapons in the upper world but hydrogen bombs, a 10 and 51 digit thousand times more powerful than hiroshima. Now we are working our way down. That could have been prevented if we did not use the bomb. On balance we should not have dropped it on nagasaki or hiroshima. We were winning the war in the way. The emperor was preparing to surrender regret the very least we could have waited a few more weeks to see if the surrender talks were going to succeed or not but i recognize it is a very controversial area but that is my opinion. From providence and day school, a student. I am a junior. What the of the reaction rigby the Ballistic Missile attack since they have not signed any sort of pact . That is a tricky question because israel would not attack palestine you read the occupied territories with the Ballistic Missile that is a longrange weapon they go hundreds or thousands of kilometers. If there is a conflict between israel and palestine it would probably be tanks, mortars and airdrops but to take the ballistic parts out, what would happen . You have seen it. Israel did an attack on the causes strep a while back in response to repeated rocket launches coming out on israeli towns. The world does not like it. The world in general sees that israel occupies parts of, but they tolerate it. Not much they can do than to make a ceasefire so what you see is what used to be long and tough brutal wars are now very short incursion said a threeyear four days or a couple of weeks. The people of israel are tired. I know. They are tired of war. They thought they could get a deal david trade land for peace but can they get a deal if they have a responsible negotiator that can deliver a deal on their behalf. But as you raise the question secretary of state john kerry is in israel today trying to get israeli powless danehy palestine peace talks going again. This is a tough and unrewarding jobs. He went to do with it and the result is he becomes one of the wests goals in the middle east. We used to have a lot now it is down to three. Stopping iran to get the barn, ending the conflict in syria in getting the israelipalestinian agreement sullivan settlement with you can get diplomacy to succeed there then it will spill over can king give some life into the diplomatic efforts that are the only real solution to the peace process. It is setup for but diplomacy takes time. Im delighted to lead the charge. We have time for one more question. I am from south korea. Method of the country can produce up bomb what is your opinion about that . North korea has demonstrated capability they have done three nuclear test the first two were not successful but the last one was. They now have the ability to produce a first generation and Nuclear Device psyche rushy my or nagasaki to use plutonium. We dont know how many weapons they have to be a pretty good idea of how much plutonium they produce somewhere between three or eight bombs worth of material. We did have negotiations that froze the plutonium program over eight years with Clinton Administration but there is a difference of opinion but the bush and administration they were cheating then they pulled the plug on the talks and as a result theyve moved ahead with the three Nuclear Tests now declare themselves a Nuclear Weapon state. If we can solve the iran problem we can demonstrate to change the behavior than that might have benefits with north korea. Partially influencing the North Koreans but influencing the up partners in particular a china to assist in diplomatic efforts we could go on all afternoon i am confident. Joe will be here most of the afternoon. We will take a break and he will be all sides signing books. I am share would be happy to talk further with you. Please join me to thank him for his time and visiting us here in charlotte. [applause] we are adjourned. [inaudible conversations]. I would just like to begin by saying a few words. The first time i came to the subject before describing some of the themes of the book, as you already have heard from my