Transcripts For CSPAN2 Aspen 20240705

Topics include artificial intelligence, the Digital Economy and u. S. And european aid to ukraine. This is two hours and 45 minutes. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] thank you, everybody. Good morning. So great to be together for third annual Aspen Security Forum d. C. Beginning this evening, seasons greetings to all. Please join me in thanking the Aspen Strategy Group and are cochairs joan i and condeleezza rice and her speakers and sponsors. Thank you all. [applause] also, a huge thanks to our remarkable Aspen Strategy Group Team Including our executive director and so many others. Thank yall for the time you put preparing this summit. [applause] thank you also to the trustees of the Aspen Institute who are so supportive of this work and in particular jane harman, gilded born at a board chair margot who since a greetings, so thank you to our trustees here. [applause] eightytwo years ago today, japan attacked the u. S. Naval base in pearl harbor. Drawing the United States into what would become thedl deadliet war in human history. And the greatest. Generation through terrorism, whose heroism we honor today bearing witness to the evils of holocaust, to Nuclear Devastation and proliferation, to the advent of the cold war. This period brought about numerous geopolitical and military paradigm shifts, including sea changes in the technologies of four. Dramatically elevating the need for American Leadership in the world on behalfn of freedom and democracy and human dignity. From the ferment of those transformational times came the founding of many of todays great organs of civil societies, including the Aspen Institute. Established in 1949, in service of social progress and human dignity, this institute assigned itself purpose of igniting Human Potential to build understanding and promote new possibilities for a better world. Our foundersrl were clear eyed into understanding that democracy, free enterprise, and military strength were three intertwined strands of onene grt court that would pull america forward. And they were truly humanistic in their beliefs and philosophical inquiry, constant learning, open dialogue, deliberation, diplomacy, reason and science, art, innovation, valuesbased leadership would be the glue of a strong and adaptable democracy. In that spirit, our founding and in pursuit of our purpose the Aspen Strategy Group holds this forum twice a year here and in aspen to identify and address the greatest challenges facing the u. S. And the world, and in these times they are many and they are all interconnected. Anja, leah and their team have displayed remarkable intelligence and perspective in designing this forum to connect the dots of themes thinge china challenge, the war for freedom in ukraine, terror and war inir the middle east, tensis are global trade, the climate crisis, the arms race, and artificial intelligence. Each of these themes requires human intelligence of the highest order, especially if American Leadership and american institutions and american democracy are to meet the enduring and emerging test before us. Our conference will feature a variety of voices government and military leadership to private sector, academia and media. On this day of remembrance i would especially like to thank the members of our Armed Services who lived their oath to the constitution every day and whose presence here is a powerful reminder of the differences betweenem open society, a system of Democratic Capitalism that we have, and though systems of ourur adversaries. And with that i also like to thank with people respect, learned journalist taking part here today with the central role they play in informing the public the difficult times on difficult issues for the good of our democracy. We hope you all learn from these discussions. Welcome. Thank you for being here. Its now my pleasure to welcome our superb Aspen Strategy Group executive director anja manuel to the stage to introduce our speakers. Thank you all. [applause] thank you so much, dan. And welcome to all of you here an almost snowy washington. It is good to see so many familiar faces, so many friends who were with us last summer in aspen. In aspen a few months ago we made it our collective goal to use our imagination to look over the horizon instead of those challenges right in front of us. And to envision and then jointly create a more optimistic future. We shook up outdated assumptions about the middle east, about africa, our relationship with china. This summer israeli former deputy Prime Minister told us that we are entering a new middle east, and president zelensky said to us that with americas help, ukraine will win. In spectacular fashion, the world had other plans. It has been very difficult the last few months, and i just want to speak my gratitude to the friends of ours who are working tirelessly for the u. S. Government every day, for allied and partnered governments, those journalists who were covering these difficult times, the ngos were all involved. Thank you all for the hard work you are doing. Peace and democracy seemed to be on the back foot and under attack everywhere. This isnt any reason to give up. Its all the more reason to redouble our efforts. One of my favorite sayings of dr. Kissinger, who has been rightfully undeservedly eulogized in the past few days is best, aew state spends duty s to bridge the gap between the nations experience and a better vision. Thats exactly what we strive to do here at the aspen security for. Were setting up a more positive vision, and then we are strivinm concretely meet it. So to do that we have an incredible lineup for you all today. We are going to hear from some of our nations best and brightest senior military leaders, senators, members of congress. Were going too hear from the brandnew foreign secretary of the United Kingdom David Cameron. Cameron. Were going here from egyptian foreign minister shukri, from katherine i, the mistreatment student, john fighter, john podesta about cop 22, Anne Neuberger and others. Were going to cover the gamut of the challenges that face us here in the United States and beyond and going to look further out. Were going to see how we can solve some of these thorny problems and how we can jointly build a better future. I want to thank dan porterfield, elliott courson and and whole aspen team, and really are smala but mighty Aspen Security Forum team, neve, death, leah, and, all of the folks working on distance to make this work would not be possible without them and it certainly wouldnt be possible without our wonderful sponsors who have been really steadfast with us for multiple years now, google, mastercard, mckinsey, microsoft, mitre, the rockefeller foundation, the Walton Family foundation and so many others. We are grateful to you all and grateful to all of you here in the audience who are here because you want to help us build a more optimistic future, thank you. [applause] its now my pleasure to welcome on stage Michele Flournoy, general fenton, Courtney Kube you to kick is right off with one of the most important topics, which is how to get our armed forces the technology and innovation thatin we need. Thank you all very much for being here. Thank you, courtney. [applause] thank you so much, anja. Thank you all for being here. The first panel adding event isnt always the highest attended and at so thrilled to h see so may people here today. I have to say until dance opening remarks it hadnt occurred to me what the date that it is, the universe of pearl harbor and i think its so appropriate thatt were beginning the form forum here today s anniversary with a session about future challenges and the need for u. S. Military and the u. S. Government to transform face future challenges especially when you look back and think about the fact that how much this nation, this military, this world has changed since pearl harbor. So we have a tremendous group up your to talk about this. When doug beck, director of the innovations unit and Senior Advisor secretary of defense. Michele flournoy, i have my list welcome Michele Flournoy cofounder and managing part of west executive vice former undersecretary of defense for policy, and general bryan fenton, interview special Operations Command who ive the feeling is to be our interesting and joke maker up here today, civil try to keep them in line. I do want to talk about there challenges, but because with the first panel and we have a 4star general appear, i do not ask about when the bit of news we had this week. Senator tuberville announcing hes going to lift the whole a most of the nominations. Im just curious, over these last several months while the nominees have been held up, house that had an impact on special Operations Command puts it so can you tell us what that is been . Courtney kube think you. First of all good morning, everybody and really appreciate being here certain with great friends, michelle and doug. First of all i would say we are very grateful that this halt has been lifted. We can get back to did the business of the department and really complex and complicated world and thats changed significantly in the last ten years. Many have talked about sony we will be more challenging in the next concise and decade in the next one to two years ahead which will be really important. So you want us back and visit of predictability in the department. The leaders in the right places and certainly getting after the tasks and the president and the present. Given your department defense. As impact of that. Theres been a lot of folks acting impositions but not really able to make the decisions that would carry an organization on five or ten years out. Its important and affordability in this room in whatever business bracketing or whatever you do, you know that having a vision is important so were back to the business over grateful though there is so smart to do, some teammates that i think are being held up. We hope that will be worked fairly quickly. I would say on the family five that i hope assorted been heard by but in this room. Thats a tremendous impact in a not so good way, in a bad way. You think about families who think theyre going to move, go to new location, new schools. You have organizations to be a part of, friends to meet lw friends to make and family members and spouses that would also have employment and have to get certificates in new states or even across the world, and thats all been held up, its been very hard for a lot of families and i think that that thankfully will now be able to get back to business. I will just end with we are grateful this, mostly theyre still work to do what the hold has been lifted to make it back to doing the business of the department which would be to be forward and certainly defend the nation. I want to talk about current challenges. What are the biggest threat, going to go down the line, general, story to put you on the spot. You told me i can tell some jokes. You can tell some jokes believe me. What are some of the biggest threat youre seeing right now . Thank you. I think before i talk about the threats and doubletalk if youre okay, both operational and because one of transformational pam, offer that as well. I would say to do that your special Operations Command team preferably out of its an opportunity to see the world globally. Were global combatant command that has an opportunity to see the world on o any given day through the eyes of 6000 teammates, teammates that are deployed in 80 countries across the world. They are small part of the 70,000 army, navy, air force marine and space force now special operations teammates. And i think they have an opportunity because they work in many domains. The work infodemic of the land domain, space and cyber domain and maritime to see the world as a like to think about it from seabed to space and from fiber to cyber. They have a good on the things that i will tell you now that we are seeing. We are seeing the prc compete globally inte this world, and nt only bound by indopacom. Without the chance recently to travel to south america and africa. They are in south america and africa wielding the elements of power, diplomatic economic and some level of information. Probably more the military piece of that in the indopacific. Were also seeing russia not just bound to ukraine and the travesties that they are wreaking there and certainly the unfortunate events against the ukraine people but theyre also in other parts of europe as a think all fear no as well in africa and north and west, courtney we were glad to see with our teammates, he seemed that looks like in some small part in mali, niger, where russia peters ether through its paramilitary or Even Ministry of defense. We also seeo russia in libya. So they are not bound geographical gist of the european continent so theyre competing there are on top of that the other challenges of violent extremism. Isis and alqaeda and even alshabaab i think each day look to regain their footing and even though theres been a large amount of work done over the years with that on the special Operations Command but the whole of our use government and partners and allies commit h those networks apart and keep them at bay from certainly our homeland and partners and allies, they are looking to regain that each and every day. While the caliphate they desire has been contained, a lot of it in the movies, the ideology is still unconstrained and looks to run rampant through the internet. So thats a challenge. Lastly i will just add an interest of time on the up side, the world votes and all the sudden and unpredictable what it comes in of the crisis. On top of mine certainly whats going on with israel and hamas since seven october the world has been extended busy not only their but across the world to address this and special Operations Command has as well but a place like sedan even before that we had diplomats from the United States and partners and allies around address and it was a lot of work to do there. And lastly i will just talk since tech panel were seeing i think a test, the proliferation of drones. Most make a right to think of flying in the air as quad coppice but the getting bigger faster fast, the fly longer. They are loitering and are becoming many of meanies when you add autonomy to it. Were also seeing robotics anyway that a landbased go, and the drone for writing were seeing the medal in area but maritime and certainly subsurface to surface space. I think artificial intelligence, i tried to check some of these questions through chatgpt they already, perplexity. It didnt come up with a good answer any good jokes but i think thats both an advantage for us as a look to harness that and make decisions faster and certainly grab not only lots of data but maybe metaverse of data. Its a a challenge facilities as well. And i will just end with the arrival of smart cities. Everything is wired these days with cameras, pressure device, sensors, and it s is all being connected some and its either a challenge for us used against a specialty something we should harness. So just a couple of things just a few things. Everybody will be hiding under the tables. I appreciate your teammates. Think of them are happy see me leave than happy to see us get there. Not true. Michelle, general fenton named a number of different threats. What do policymakers see us biggest threat . What exactly are this to you to address some of things general fenton just brought up . Well, i think the challenge for policymakers right now is the volatility of the environment is such that even though the synergy is identify china as deterring china as the pacing threat, the real world is not cooperating. Weve got russias continued aggression against ukraine. We now have this explosive situation between hamas and israel in the middle east and the risks of potential escalation to a larger regional conflict. And many other counterterrorism operations, many of the things that call the attention to the here and now because of the stakes involved for the United States and a partners and allies. But at the same time we have to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. We have to be able to keep our eyes in some of our bandwidth focused on the most consequential threat in my view, which is preventing they were with the Nuclear Armed china, whether its over taiwan or Something Else here and we know that president xi is very interested in reintegrating taiwan into Greater China on his watch. We know he prefers political and economic coercion to achieve that objective as he did in hong kong. But we also know hes instructed his military to options ready for him by 2027. And so we need to be able to anticipate a potential test of our ability to deter in that timeframe, and that is really driving in the pentagon i think a lot of leadership effort to first of all, set the theater with our allies so the work you see happening with aukus, the work you see happening in the quad, are deepening relationship with japan, korea, philippines and other partners, allies and partners, all very critical. But its also put a premium on accelerating the adoption of Innovative Technologies, their integration into the legacy force, and doing that with speed and scale. That is going to be critical to us passing that deterrence test and presenting president xi if he ever thinks that using force with enough the limits and enough challenges that he says not today. And so i know well talk a lot about technology pieces, but i just want to put it in an and other key issues that is not getting enough attention, and that is the Human Capital peace. We have gotot to transform our workforce. Im not suggesting the pentagon becomes a Major Technology developer. I am suggesting that we need to enhance ai literacy so that you can haveer the pentagon and dod personnel can be smart evaluators of technology, smart buyers of technology, smart and tests and evaluators, testers and evaluators of technology, smart users of that technology and overseers. So we have to increase the tech and ai and Digital Literacy of the department. Lots of great ideas out there to do that, whether its making that he is of the talent we have bye giving tech competent people in the military and in the Civil Service actual career paths to hone that proficiency and make larger, larger contributions, or bringing in new talent through new pipelines, weather, there are, we have a problem in this country that college isnt affordable. What if we offered digital rotc, Digital Service academy, digital reserve corps to tap into all that wonderful talent out in our Innovation Ecosystem . There are some very straightforward come in my view, answers to really help bring the talent we need. This has to be whole of nation effort in this competition here so ill stop there but hope that we will get to the allies in workforce piece of this, not just the technology which is critical for jeff to build the whole, have to work on all the foundations that are really going to allow us to keep our edge. [applause] you can clap. We will take c all we can get. You can clap after every answer. The Company Shall make the adoption of Information Technology speed im sorry. Michelle mentioned the adoption of Innovative Technologies and you oversee the departments efforts to speed up that sort of adoption of commercial technology. I wonder if, where has innovation been on the spirits waiting about here, and where is the i you taking innovation right now . First of all, fantastic to be a peer and really great to be appear with to make great friendswi and teammates. Its an honor to be together for this. Sitting here today on pearl harbor day and you can help crystallized mind of what happens when youre not prepared and if we end up in the conflict michelle was talking about, we are not going to have a time so i think that is really useful if you step back we face as a nation whether it is the challenge from china or others we are piecing, we cannot fall for those must be fully leveraged capability of technology and amazing capability in our tech sector here, we have to take full advantage of that we have to because of the speed to bring back capability there which can be faster and capabilities for National Security but also quality and capability technology, much of the is in that tech sector. Things like artificial intelligence, cyber, space, bio technology, those areas are not just going faster but always will go faster driven by relentless demand of consumers around the world and the enterprises and i just came from that world. That capability will always go faster to meet those demands so we have to at the same time go hard and deep to take full advantage of their capabilities and pathways and we have to take advantage of that. They are originally back and seeing that and wanting to get after it. If you step back and look at that, i had the privilege of looking at the on a parttime basis back then it was about building the bridge between the department at tech sector. We always want to go faster and as we put against the prison of whats coming at the next ten years, we have to go even faster. Theres a lot of ways to do that. Im used to being in tampa. A little chilly up here. So i think theres other ways to do. One of them certainly michelle talked about, with partners and allies. For special Operations Command thats in our dna. Its been probably since the time of the office of Strategic Services in the oss three needed partners and ellis and world war ii to do jobs in european theater with the french, resistance and certainly pacific campaign, places like the philippines in order to provide advantage to the larger force, larger army, larger navy in many ways we will let the leverage of many of the moving out in this very arena. Theyre in a number of offenses is ahead on some tech innovation, certainly ahead on the Human Capital peace and were looking to get best practices from them. What youll see so, doing to try to speed the flywheel is and we will call is to absolutely partner with the i you. Many future of where socom goes in the next five, ten, 15 years with regard to tech and Human Capital and wielding it as an advantage and giving options to the secretary and the president that we may not have now. Its absolutely as well as the industry. The big and little that socom is going to partner with. And, frankly, we can gone out into the Venture Capital and private equity world to get a sense of what teammates that really a typical maybe five to ten years ago for socom are seeing. That might be initially Single Use Technology in the commercial space but could turn into dual juice that would be applicable in the defense space. The answer is no but i think would a lot to try to get after it. Michelle, jimmy choo president xi tell his military berated by 2020 set for invasion of taiwan should it be necessary. I wonder if you believe he is military is transforming fast enough so the u. S. With potential but for 2027 invasion of taiwan . If not, what more does u. S. Need to focus more on . So i think that if i were to give an assessment, i think the leadership of the department writ large understands the challenge and feels a great sense of urgency. I think that steps have been taken like hiring someone like doug elevating diu, empowering the organization, theyre saying all the right things. Are spending a lot of time on it. In my experience one of the big lessons i took away from my time in the pentagon is getting the policy right is not enough. If you actually want to change behavior you have to realign the incentives of individuals whose behavior you are trying to change. And so it means really retraining hearts of our acquisition and commercially driven technologies that go through an Agile Development process very, very different than how we traditionally acquired large military platforms. It means incentivizing them, meaning to get rewarded, promoted, they have a career path so forth. It also means of congress have been incredibly generous with more flexible authorities, there are some additional things when you from congress. We need congress to fund diu to scale come to some of the scaling of promising technologies that meet urgent operational needs like the Replicator Initiative, for example. We need congress to give the department some additional flexibility to move monies within capability. Youre having these technologies are changing every 18 months and if you program something in two or three year cycles, if youre going to be buying something that is already obsolete by the time you get it. We have got to have some further help from congress as well. Doug, jimmy choo your role on Strategic Effects at diu as well, and it wonder if you think you right now, we shall just talk about the need for more funding for diu. Do you have the tools and the funding to be able to transform, to deter future conflicts . And lets just name one. Lets talk about china. The you have what you need to deter against a potential conflict, china, a conflict in beijing taiwan . So i guess i would say not yet but we were on our way. I will maybe make three points around where we are and think where we gone ahead. We need there to be a defense appropriations budget so we can get after that. That has an enormous effect across the department in the marriott of ways not only about what were getting up to. So three things. The first one is i do think that were at a Tipping Point right now in the department and in the nation in getting after this ear if you compare what we are to where you were in those early days back and say 2015, today we have a secretary of defense who clearly gets this in the deputy secretary who clearly come with leadership across the department who get it. We have an Agency Partners from the white house to everywhere that get it. We have a commercial tech sector that gets it where not that long ago that were not the many people who even thought about the fact you would just tr tap and have the system, so we can build silicon valley. Now people get it. And we have a congress that by and large gets it. So that gives us the Tipping Point to make change happen. We are doing concrete things right now to start to get after that, things like the Replicator Initiative or maybe even more important than that initial which is a first step and will continue to iterate. That initiative is about both putting real capability in place to meet the challenge that michelle was talking about and also to build the muscle in the department as a whole department which is what all of us are part of this. In order to do that quickly and do it again and again and again. Actions like that, thats the department moving to make that happen, which brings me to kind of my third point which is about a concept of risk. I had the privilege of serving with special operators downrange in iraq and afghanistan leading my siblings life behind to go do that. When i came home one of the biggest learnings for me was that i spent my entire career up to that point in the private sector, private sector executive, thinking that risks the wrong way. Most of what i thought about as being risk isnt. Its uncertainty. Risk is a different thing. Risk is risk in force, it Strategic Risk for our nation. And what we have to do now and why that Tipping Point and the actions are so important is weve got to be taking risks now that are maybe financial risk, process risk of maybe even Reputational Risk and we have to take that kind of risk now so we are not transferring risk to real risk for the soldiers, sailors, airmen, guardians, marines who had to fight the war if deterrence fails. You have to be willing to fail essentially to advance . Take risk of that kind to avoid real risk. Courtney, if i might even pulled little more on transformation. I think when folks think about transformation, maybe specific to socom you will think about tech. I did talk a lot about that but i think theres risk, weve unpacked it come first and foremost we talk about transmission. Each really about our people. Humans are more important than hardware, model for special Operations Command. The first thing when we think transmission is when i said no is the speed come is education and inquiring of talent that really understand what was going in disney world. A lot of that is the training, the understanding of how you wield ai robotics or autonomy and responsively, ethically and under policy, certainly framework that are now and will come from the department. So for us the first thing we think transformation is really about our people and are we educating for the future, taking with uncertainty and that is one part of the risk we look at. Tech, i think ive hit that one hard would be our second look. Third is even our organizations. In socom we on a fairly deep sprint to look inside the organization theater. Ill be outlined correctly . Are we organize correctly in order to meet the challenges of the future . Not holding to any dartmouth and said we should be certain number or certain size. Really, what is the mission were trying to solve for the nation, for the department and can we do it at her, faster, stronger way by changing conversation . Lastly, our tactics and techniques and procedures, how we do what we do. It already looks very different than when i joined the formation 30 years ago. Weve got to continue to get. And just use a concept of risk, need to look at risk across all those, especially for socom. Mr. Schoen early mention allies and partners playing a role in this transformation . Which seems to be douglas talk about this Tipping Point an inefficient but it does seem to be there is this point right now whether is an urgent need for transform for what are some very real threats currently and on the horizon. I when i use allies and partners applying in that . They are absolutely critical. The fact that allies and partners in great numbers is a huge source of strategic advantage for the United States. One piece of good news is the chinese under president xi have really overplayed their hands using intimidation, sort of constant military pressure in places like the east china sea, the south china sea, the strait of taiwan. Its critical a a bit of a backlash. We have an historic moment in our lives with japan in terms of the level and depth and intensity of cooperation. We have the aukus agreement which will give a critical ally australia not only conventionally Armed Nuclear powered submarines which are convinced helpful in the region, but also to the pillar two efforts. Doing this innovation and innovation options handinhand alongside each other. And along with our friends the british. The philippines have welcomed the United States back in. Korea is asking what more we can do, through the quad where having much more intensive discussion on codevelopment of technology with india. So, i mean, its really quite something. The challenge ill highlight though is as you integrate these new technologies were going to have to keep investing in means of maintaining interoperability and really ensuring that we bring our allies with us, and that means a lot of this has to be designed, by design for allies from the start rather than developing something, exquisite in u. S. Only that we then have to figure out how to go through all to see how we should. More we design for allies and partners alongside from the start, better that will be. The leveraging commercial technology will help in that regard. We only have about two minutes left but i want to ask you because one place where the u. S. Is focused on with allison partners is the war in ukraine. Can you share any Lessons Learned from ukraine these last two years that diu is implementing now . Okay. Well, we can talk about that all day and by the way i think some of our speaking phallus and partners can to over allison partners precedent by doctor today so much as a thank you for being here. We had some great meetings yesterday. There are an enormous number of license you and i will maybe maybe mention three big yeses and and not yet. So big yes number one is it is absolutely apparent all the ways in which commercially derived technology of all kinds is delivering incredible impact, alongside more traditional things like and employed by the incredible heroism of the ukrainians in order to meet the challenge. Whether its Space Technology with the ability to crowd source targeting data from notches soldiers in the field but civilians bring them together in a way you can actually get it to what needs to go in order to make targeting decisions, go to all kinds of secure communications across different kinds of networks that can be seamlessly and operate even with a Cellular Network either is destroyed or is owned by the adversary, or obviously all the ways in which Unmanned Systems are playing a role large small and what were learning about first person to technology what were learning about Electronic Warfare environment. All of that is incredible, incredible and were learning a time and to play all of that for both what were doing to help support the ukrainians to deter russia longterm but also from need to do in order to deter the pacing challenge. Thats one big lesson. I would also threw out make other yeses. One is a lot of ways were sometimes its easier for us to take capability that is resident in a commercial capability that isnt already a a big programn the department and share that with a partner. Because theres a lot of complexities sometimes about taking a more exquisite things and sharing them but say hey, the something great opener you might want to talk to these folks. We can do that and that is something diu has been helping a lot as well as a partners across innovation community. The third one is talented sometimes its not the stuff, its actually our people forward as far as we are allowed to take them to hope and all the ways we can to solve the problems and realtime basis. I will end with a big not yet because its a not yet not just for ukraine but for all of us in the leveraging commercial attack, which is we are not there at the skills the we need to be yet for deploying this tactic. We need to get to that scale with everything where doing, the skill is not yet there in the ways that we needed strategically because we need that scale in order to not only help us serve the needs of ukrainians to deter russia but to meet the much bigger broader challenges we have as a nation. Our partners in the tech sector also need that skill because thats the only way the roi works. Right now some of these companies we dont say these are good examples, some of them effectively people often the same time theyre doing all these great things and thats because of the scale is not there yet. Weve got to get to scale. Thank you all so much. Were out of time but we could talk all they did but i think anja would never invite me back, so thank you all. [applause] thank you all very much. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] ladies and gentlemen, please remain seated because were going to continue right on with her program. And we are enormously lucky to have with us right now general cotton who is the command of use Strategic Command responsible for all the Nations Nuclear forces and missile capabilities. And senator jim risch who is currently serving as senator from idol and the Ranking Member of the u. S. Senate Foreign Relations committee. And interview him we have none other than our close friend and New York Times correspondent david sanger. And you very much. [applause] well, thank you very much. Thank you, anja. Senator risch, general cotton, thank you so much for joining us. You can tell that this is aspen in washington and the aspen aspen because we were all wearing neckties. The downside of aspen in washington. So were going to talk a good deal about the Great Power Competition with china and russia. But i wanted to start the conversation today, general cotton, with you on a topic you and ive been talking about on and off, which has been the differences between this era and the cold war that we knew. You often made the point this is not cold war 2. 0. Its quite different. And quite more complex. And so just wanted you to play out that argument a bit. Well ask senator risch to comment on that as well. Well, thank you. I think fundamentally since the advent of [inaudible] weve never had two new peer competitors. And for the first time with two new peer competitors. We talk about cold war, the concern and only reason i say i dont like using the terminology cold war because what i dont want for us to do is to immediately and automatically revert back to how we solve for the problem when we had one near peer as opposed to now having two. The biggest difference, history will play itself out, is when you look at the cold war era, you had the warsaw pact and judd the western mission. We never provide or counted on warsaw pact from the west for any economic anything. The interweaving with global economics, with potential adversaries, prc in particular, not only with the United States a within our allies and partners as well. So i think when you think about the strategy on how do you solve that dilemma, its a lot different than just pulling out the books of how we solve that dilemma. Let nay one were beat on that with you, general cotton, which is in the years leading up to world war i, the was a very similar hearing that economic interdependence would prevent war from happening. Germany was deeply economically tied to britain and elsewhere. And obviously it didnt work here we thought consistently that chinas economic ties would restrain the way xi jinping thought about the world, and he is got off and directions i think its fair to say no and washington really predicted. So can be over depend on the economic interdependence as a restraint . As as a war fought with absolutely not. My job is always to create that strategy which introduces the limits for an adversary, to go to present those options to the commanderinchief if required. So thats my job and thats what im going to do and not count on the fact that that will solve that problem. Senator risch come you for general cotton say the biggest difference is the economic interdependence. What else strikes u. P. On that . Well, i think whats been referred to here is the complexity of it. A couple things. Number one is a complexity. If the cold war was a checkers game, we are doing with a rubiks cube today. Thats the magnitude of the difference in addition to that in the cold war, we had a competitor that we were dealing with. Today weve got two nearterm competitors, but in addition to that everybody else in the world, the gap in the cold war was very significant. The gap today isnt nearly that significant. All countries, not all countries but many countries are moving up to where the gap between the top and the rest of the world is much narrower than what it was. I think all of those things make it a complex picture that makes the cold war look like a sunday School Picnic anymore in a lot of ways. Senator cotton general cotton. You could be a senator one day. [laughing] we will let you retire first before we get to that. [laughing] general cotton, back in 2015 you were a two star. You were running the air force component of the Nuclear Force at that time. And in those days, and that was only eight years ago, china looked like a pretty Distant Nuclear threat to the u. S. Now, the public declassified numbers that you see in the annual china report from the Defense Department is roughly 500 deployed weapons now come which is up by about 200, 250 from a few years ago, 1000 by 2030, and 1600 by 2035. Thats why he had of what i think you are looking at eight years ago. So tell us first what did we miss . And and and second, how does s affect your day today just planning about the future . Take the second question first. In 2015 when as commander of the air force, that was icbm leg of our United States. I actually was pretty happy and satisfied. What do i mean by that . We were well on our way on being able to modernize and have conversation and finalize the modernization of the nuclear triad. That modernization effort was based off what we saw in 2010 timeframe, with the geopolitical environment look like. But i was excited as someone who works on the weapon systems throughout my career. But then short three years later, we start hearing the conversation with regard to nuclear breakdown. To your point, the reason i felt excited because we are modernizing our force. We saw the prc as a nation challenge in earlier years. We articulated that it was a minimal Deterrent Force is how they can articulate themselves. But then to your point, start seeing the quick rise in their ability to kind of build out their force. Bona fide with icbm force, mobile and groundbased now. That sounds a little different than he minimal deterrence force. And why do you think they make . I wish i knew. Right . I wouldnt be a senator. I would be in vegas. Or wall street. So sorry not the senator but i wish i knew. I just dont know why, but the fact is we now know that that is, it is whats happened. So worried are working towards that. And i know well talk a little bit later about that is operational team. Telescope a bit about that. Because obviously if it are different calculus in what you are dealing with. I think of command stratcom, i ask you can look back to the npr. Theres a book in the npr and the hook in the npr allows us to look to see if the strategy and the numbers work with what we want to be able to present to the the president of the United States as far as what objectives president of the United States wants. So we are actually doing that now within stratcom to ensure that we can always hold the advantage in regards of having two two peers. That means you are evaluating whether the current numbers in the triad and the current strategy of how you would employ them would work ten years from now . Oh, absolutely. With the program of record that we have, that are on for acquisition programs that we have coming on board. While that is still in place, visit your early instinct that we need a significant change in numbers, or we just ate a significant change in how we think about how events would play out . One of the things that i bring, that are brought to the stratcom, i will be there one you tomorrow, is of one is the kind of look differently. We understand what the stockpile is what the stockpile is. So what i really want to play out is that how do i meet the objectives, how do i present the effects . Because as a combatant commander, no different than my good friend who was here in the earlier session, as combatant command my job is to be able to present a facts that will meet the objective of the president s speech we will return to this discussion in just a moment but right now were going to keep our over fouryear commitment to covering congress. You send is about the gavel in for whats expected to be a brief session. The u. S. Senate is about to gavel in. The presiding officer the senate will come to order. The clerk will read a communication to the senate. The clerk washington, d. C. ,january 26, 2024. To the senate under the provisions of rule 1, paragraph 3, of the standing rules of the senate, i hereby appoint the honorable jack reed, a senator from the state of rhode island,to perform the duties of the chair. Signed patty murray, president pro tempore. The presiding officer under the previous order, the Senate Stands in recess until stands in recess until i cant imagine it would be different today. , first and foremost what we have to do and by the way, you made reference to this, i would respectfully disagree. I didnt think it would constrain them in any way. The numbers alone are not as important. You cant trust these people. We made the mistakes in berlin wall came down and they started out that way but changed dramatically. You cant trust them, these treaties are not the beginning and end. Those of us in the first branch of government are aware and this is a nonpartisan issue, an american issue. We have differences in my respects and deterrence to the United States is paramount for National Security and i can sure the American People we are serious about it, dedicated. And so forth. Obviously the concern is they coordinate use of arsenal and change the strategies. Is it your sense the senate is beginning to think about employment . First of all, youve do assume the worst. Russia and china are not natural allies. They do share some things was very different than our democracy. There is no more between these two. I say the world, autocracy and democracy and at the got is more of a challenge. That divide is going to continue in the best way to watch it is in the united nations. You have these two poles that are becoming more solid. The russians, the chinese, syrians and all of that category. Its a different way of thinking and a way to conduct your lifes. I think one of the great challenges, how we are able to get along. China is not going to change. Theyre not going to wake up one morning and russia is a going to do that although with demographics come up as a better chance of changing. We have to figure out how just at the end of the cold war we are able to have our own. Let me take you back something just before you took over, october 2022, 5 or 6 or 7 months and the administration withdrew i think a Nuclear Scare and it was when the russians might employ inside, a constant concern and for a little while there is the chinese and the indians and others and there was ahi concern at that moment kindf changed the atmosphere, it legitimized the idea might, im wondering how much of a permanent alteration and the overall threat. s the obama you are right, but it did is it would to the dining room table so peoples homes, whats that really mean . Past 25 years even though the National Security especially in the Nuclear Deterrence piece, is something we could never discuss. Now we have forms really you actually have these things you can discuss. I think this is the important. First of all America Needs to understand how we come to our again in ukraine. Of the countries out of the soviet union, russia, calfskin, belarus and ukraine. Ukraine was the Third Largest Nuclear Power. But not in control of the weapons been up while they had possession of the weapons. We can see what they cane do whn they have the ability but we help United States help the policy and always have had the policy is leslie have, the better off the whole world is particularly us National Security. We sat down with ukrainians and persuadeder them to give up Nuclear Weapons which they did. They surrendered and we said if something happens will be there you and gary are. Fastforward to the time you mentioned from a the russians start writing using weapons and wait a second ukraine had weapons and they cant respond, russia is threatening them, where are we . I have said all along since the start United States does not stand behind ukraine, i believe, i worry what our enemies will think that i worry more about what our allies with think we cant count on the United States. We got to have Nuclear Weapons and a really think ukraine self the largest. Your colleagues do not want to c withstand. As a separate issue but its more talked about in the media. Those numbers are much wheres the 92 of us who think we need to do this dont get nearly the same coverage but back to the question, we have had this conversation part of the and believe me, it is a serious conversation and something people asked me what keeps me awake at night and there are not a lot of things but if you stand under the Nuclear Umbrella will certainly will nato countries, it really changes the planet regarding Nuclear Weapons, is a serious concern. We talked about transactional partnerships, russia and china, have does, we have alliances and partners. I think one of the things we did to prove assurance to allies and partners was two things that happened, but with ssb and and south korea as well as b52 the first time in a long time. What made it even more amazing stuff from my perspective was the factors that came out of because on between us the are okay and the other was from japan and i think it makes a difference in regards to the network or mocha colored building of assurance so im proud of the work like components did you put that together. Well i have so much more i wanted to ask you including the Defense Industrial base and so forth but one of the rules, there deterrent is to make sure we stay on schedule and there is massive retaliation and promise that we dont come afraid we have to adhere but thank you for this enlightening conversation. Thank you. [applause] there are trapdoors for those who does downtime. Thank you so much. Ladies and gentlemen, it is now my great pleasure to introduce David Cameron from a he needs no introduction, is a brandnew foreign secretary of the United States and also Prime Minister, the man who is a staunch ally of the United States and the west has seen a lot how the west must stand together on ukraine and other issues and similar domestic issues we are dealing with now on immigration, copulation it also subissues so David Cameron. Thank you. It is great to be with you. A month ago someone said to me i can be delighted is there so many it may be the first job i ever had in politics, 1988, 89 i went to work for Margaret Thatcher and i look back in that time the berlin wall was falling from a soviet union with curricula, russia becoming a friend, china 20 government feels in more and more countries, it was in the end of history but if you like a time we were making extraordinary progress. It really couldnt be more different, i worry europe, the crisis, much more aggressive china and russia, more countries adopting this. The first thing to f realize is how much has changed her about how unlikely it is to step back. This optimism bias. Remember a coach where i said Fastest Growing economies, he said we are the two best looking horses. At the time i thought were gloomy but now i realize what he was saying, things were much more difficult. It is really important because its never been reported for our defenses remote build on alliances and thatsll why im here in the United States today and i think we should be frank about something about domestic politics makes it harder not only to do that but also engage in the wayth we need to to build stability we need. I hear this back at home, why should we meet these challenges of the seas . I think we should be frank there are things fundamentally that change. The fact that globalization has a benefit of a part of our country equally, their places left behind and the obligation from social media and im not one who says ignore that, think about that, getnk on, we have to deal with those problems. Were only strong internationally it would be strong domestically and thats why doesnt matter if youre democrat or republican, we all meet domestic challenges to engage. There are people all over the world and would benefit from investing in the engagement and ability we need. The biggest was america and making the argument over and over again. We start with, i stand with you in the United States and they were and innovation and i saw what happened, children in front of their parents, to support israel as they deal with the terrorist threat. People in this ceasefire, you need to understand if you taco, in charge, there can never ba2 state vision. S its important arguing about military and civilian casualties and we will make those once again but as we go ahead and look at the future of how we build a future, israel and palestinian people, the Development Part will be important. Well have to work out how to revitalize and work at how to engage in rebuild what the palestinians have and the people who say in this policy, the issue is china, i will say we need written in america and believe in democracy and the heart of the chromosome hugo. The its great, give us the electrical grid and i think it is really important to Work Together. Thank you for those death traps. A particularly or deductible ukraine. Putins invasion of ukraine was the worst example of wrecking the sovereignty of other states weve seen and it is a challenge and are not n worried about strength and unity and slavery, offender have seen it come on board will not do what we need to do countries on ukraine we out to russia 321 and we just have to make it and make sure we give them support diplomatic support for can make a difference. I want to take a few moments, i think i do have a couple but, to take on the arguments you but the first thing you hear is its failing, its not working. They have taken back half of the territory russia saw. Yes, its a deadlock i was standing up for a couple weeks ago where ukrainians pushed russian navy across the black sea into the process they spoke about this. They opened up the maritime way to execute and over 200 have used that as the work was done. They are growing again and succeeded at we should be backing up on that. The second thing, are we doing enough . You are doing and credible job but figures now show the economic and military support so the support really is there. If you go through this package, it will give it an enormous one. Sometimes they have been disunited are there a couple weeks ago and never seen nato so united and engaged in with sweden growing, its a massive failure and bring back unity. We are trying to help and develop next year and sustained. Why is that important . Anything lists so that is a victory for putin. It wont be the end of this. We stood here and warned this would happen and now its in ukraine. It will just be american money but it could be american lives. The money put in his astounding. Used by ukrainians, it destroyed half of russias efforts. If thats not a good investment, auto what is. I think the final thing is what about ukraine . Should we help . Of course ukraine is it perfect but this is democracy in every part of the country, crimea included is an independent sovereign country. Its passing laws more than anything in the country self i see it as a challenge for our generation, are we going to defend and restless security is also American Security . We should pass this money and make sure. If the money doesnt get through, there will be people, putin russia and the other one is changing. I dont know about you but i will either those people. Thank you very much. [applause] thank you very much for outlining your views on ukraine, its so great to have you in washington. The former minister said and 70 that this is significant. First trip was to ukraine as you mentioned and you touched on some of this but tell us more how ukraine can winin because it is pretty stalemated right now. Field trip so far from russia is over 3000o casualties. They havent been able to sustain the plan from ukraine and i think c you can see how ukraine can push back in one example right now if we are able to give ukraine more longrange, theen u. S. Has to crimea under threat. There is nothing that will drive russia for the fact that ashley seen crimea which is part of ukraines and its probably under attack will sometimes you have to t be patient and i think thats one problem we have, the impatience. These things do take time. I am convinced its worth investing in ukrainians from others no doubt they are committed to recovering their territory and we should. Do you think tornado and u. S. That crimea is a redline and thats why the u. S. Has not provided longrange missiles provided . It shouldnt be a redline because its not perfect there was a referendum and 91 i thought i would get in there quickly and 91 there was a referendum every part ofar ukrae to be part of ukraine is an independent sovereign state i think sometimes they are in danger of rushing propaganda. Putin sees crimea and ties to read this message of confusion all about what happened, it wasnt, it was great bullet territory in theabsolutely over that. He shouldnt be seen as a redline battle, as part of ukraine. What happens at the end . You have to put ukraine in the best position wee can deliver te message that he is not winning cannot and there will be the next thing you are on the health met with the republican expressing concern how the money is being spent so much that they have a point . For your is this . There are a lot of concerns expressed. If you think the issues of the money, 10 of the Defense Budget has a massive impact thats turned into we didnt pick this fight. I also say we are working very hard to not h only just supply weapons but also train them. Britain train 30,000 ukrainian soldiers so from everything i can see, the military support is being used effectively. Ukraine doesnt even have a navy but that is exciting, it is remarkable. Yesterday the russian helicopter fleet explain what happened there. In one night Something Like a fit of russias attack were destroyed and i think that was one of the u. S. Attacks nato is not spending their gdp on the Defense Budget. I think it is important, i wasnt a stand on this issue, he was right to say more european nations of the nato conference we said it was everybody. At that time the nations of which the uk was to present, i think over this meeting. And itn to feel the pressure. Not right america has to pay for europes defense. In if you military civilian economics and humanitarian, the overall european figure of 150 million is the u. S. Figure so i think we really are. The Impact Congress will be huge because it will enable they want to get behind ukraine for the next year. The second largest in ukraine after the u. S. And the allies 36 billion gets it out there. The sounds like a lot of money to average americans the aei suggested 90 of the money is here in the United States and its building up munitions in 31 states and 117 production lines why is this a good investment . Members of the public live in places in the uk are the states where does Industrial Base as a result. A wakeup call to west, it is reinvigorated but also it is a wakeup call just in time might be okay for amazon deliveries. We do need to have more solid supplies and make sure supply chains are. I think all of a place is important and we are at the place where we have to thinking about how we run down existing stocks think more how we build up. The more dangerous insecure world supply chains and defense and permits, these are more important. The safety of the development and they work as well and other allies defend themselves and we have to find ways for friends and allies and partners to defend themselves. The sanctions against russia work . I think they worked to an extent, the calculation ive seen is had the sanctions not been there, they would be another 100 billion dollars available for russias war machine. I think to start with, we need to make sure sanctions were smarter and oil restrictions are better making sure the prices dont feed into the russian revenue but keeping up with it additional sanctions yesterday on 46 entities in 11 countries including prospectus and in turkey, nato, china, all countries who got businesses so we are using our regime to stop that. Today he sanctioned to russians linked to disrupt our democracy so i think it is about a full spectrum across the system approach with russian factors. Do think the 411 billing dollars russian money overseas to be used to build ukraine . I think it is an interesting argument and i will talk about this today, all our countries confiscated aspects i think it is a strong argument to say they are just breathing the money. Spend it on rebuilding ukraine and that it is a payment on the reparations russians will one day have to pay. There are a lot of arguments produced in our economy and look at the arguments and so far have not seen anything, this is a bad idea. This does fall under the bracket, the world has changed, its change with the way iran is behaving in the middle east and the devil of insecurity and the fact that china has become hostile and there is a tendency the got to crisis in the world for mark ukraine in the middle east and more likely. First of all, we should remember lessons from pearl harbor with act of aggression that was. For strength and restraint at the heart of the lessons weve learned in the 40s. This is what i felt so strongly, there would have to be a brilliant student in the 30s was a disaster and we ended up with more invasions and hitlers and we eventually had to do something about and the price is higher the longer you wait. With china but i would say in my time, we tried to build a positive relationship and engage in some resulted in good economic outcomes but china has changed. We have seen the treatment of hong kong and diplomacy and terrible situations when australia does something for the sylvania and this is what we are dealing with, we need to harden our systems and be clear ida as a result. One thing in this approach not only to protect ourselves and system models are aligned better with our allies because it is much easier to stand up to this if we stick together. You think available is with hong kong . It has always been there in the United States has the one china policy and they believe in unification of china and taiwan. What we share, this cannot happen anyway but it will be collision. It is important because china is walking. Iran is watching and we know even most recently if you pull back from one of these important exercises working together. We have ton middle east, do you still believe a two state solution as possible . I do. When you go to israel today, it feels a long way off because its a nation and torment, the eighth of october different country. The people where i went, they were the most peace loving to states supporting group of people, one that im a, driving the families to israeli hospitals so it feels a long way off but ultimately if you are a friend of israel, and i am from a longterm security is strong not only strong defenses, it means finding a way for palestinians neighbors are also living in security and dignity. Getting there is credibly hard but we have to think what happened on day one, what do you do to build up authority . How you get states to commit to working on the and thinking how to provide stability and security in gaza . How do we improve . It is incredibly difficult but not to me the alternative two state solution is much less. Prime minister netanyahu. You have to ask him. [laughter] you have to give. I think the answer is israels longterm security and friends of israel have to persuade and i think judge them by whatever actions they take in the longterm. Thank you very much,. Thank you so much for telling us the common sense reason the United States, along with europe and other allies and friends investing security of ukraine, we really appreciate that message. We are very grateful to welcome to the stage one of the longtime friends john podesta, his help every difficult job in the United States government and has recently gone back to acting for this one of your greatest passions from a to solve the christ is Climate Change. It may not be an obvious thing for National Security conference to focus on Climate Change but we always do every time we have a conference because it is a National Security issue, critically important one. Its already making civil wars in sudan and syria and elsewhere worse, is causing a migrant crisis largely invisible and will only get more difficult so we are excited to have john podesta. Still legs, thank you. No one better to interview him and jim from cnn. [applause] we will put you on the right for once. [laughter] thats where uncomfortable. Apologies, i am in colorado more casual. As we started, i never doubt crime is a National Security issue and monograph conversations with folks about the reality of Climate Change in the u. S. Navy website for the u. S. Navy speaks openly about National Security migration, moreover resources and etc. , ill have to tell you that but it is something have to bring up frequently. Working for secretary, im glad you referenced this but i will start by telling a story, this is triggering for me. When i was bill clintons chief of staff in 2000, gail smith went to run usaid, our senior director and we center into breathing room one day to say Climate Change, transnational threats were security threats and really got left out of the Briefing Room from your colleagues. Fastforward 13 years later in the defense review first identified Climate Change as a threat multiplier. I say today we shouldnt think about as a threat multiplier, it is right, the effect noted on Human Security cascades into security challenges across the board because of the displacement of people which exacerbates fragility as well as people pouring over the borders which obviously as we are watching what is going on on capitol hill and inability to find a path forward to get the resources ukraine needs and israel needs, i think it is something i think we will only get worse and be exacerbated the years ahead so we have to take it seriously on those terms as well as the economic environmental terms we usually discussed. The environment and Climate Change and must migration africa to europe and south america, we are discussing those issues more often. There is cautious optimism expressed by organizers and others that they will come to the phasing out or phasing down a fossil fuels, i wonder if you shiva. I think it is a healthy debate on record as being in favor of phasing out on fossil fuels. With the it a while ago and secretary has been clear but there is still resistance so negotiations are in the clenches. One thing that has happened is the focus on the oil and gas sector and its never been as prominent. We have been talking a long time about the need to stop building the power plant and put pressure on countries like china to begin to not only stop building new plants but retiring old plants. Perhaps it is posted by the uae its put a bullseye from the oil and gas sector and i think it let to a significant step forward in terms of reducing methane from the production of oil and gas, the United States on the with the rules the epa finalized in the oil and gas sector. In general, the commitment made on the second day were substantial only gets emissions from production, it doesnt get scope three, what happens when the oil is actually used emissions come back. You mentioned the word what of buzzword, unabated. Explain that and does it up all along as we figure out a way to lay not in week will be okay. Unabated means there are processes by which you can capture emissions. Are any of those proven . They are theoretically proven whether they are economic is the question. I think there is a lot going on, little more distant supporting demonstration projects and sequestering it and injecting it into the ground. More typically what people refer to is taking co2 out and injecting it underground. Has it been demonstrated . Yes but is it a solution . Theres quite a bit of contention even in the top. One way to think is you cant keep earning fossil fuel forever and ever and think you can grab that and put back underground. That is not an overall solution, we have to move the sources of energy but there certain amount of co2 released have to be able to move in the processes where mid century would get to where people use the term that zero retake carbon out of the atmosphere and then there needs that space. There are a lot of parallels but i wonder if it is filtered cigarettes, as long as we put a filter in everything, it will be fine. How much is a solution as opposed to destruction or delay . I think that is a fair question. What i say we have to demonstrate the technology, continue on the path we are on, essentially rr economy into clean sources, renewables, zero carbon sources like Nuclear Power but there is a little tail at the end. I think the fossil fuel industry might pretend we can keep doing what we are doing and take care of this, but is not a solution and will not work. What i am doing at the white house is trying to implement the reduction act. Try to replace those resources across every Industrial Areas with climate inspired forms. Of this will are oil, is the top 28 of this year, are they credible to address climate planet . I think that the truth is that we need them to do things different. A is a Major Development of Renewable Power so that is think that they cant keep going down the track they are going which they continue to deploy as far as the eye can see. We need to see autonomy transform and powered on clean forms of energy and particularly oil and gas where the usage is so dominantly and transportation, electrification and other forms of viewing and duty transportation is going to be we need to get. Dependent on continued production of oil and gas but we have to make this transition and thats why we push toward that goal of 50 . Mobile electric by 2030 and he think we can accomplish that. Is there an odd dynamic there given that u. S. Production has grown so much in outpacing many of those that we traditionally saw as only the fossils of business by the way, you have a leading republican candidate for president hu sit on day one drill drill drill will be part of his mantra. Where does that put the u. S. Role in this as as a produce . I i think in the near term taken as result of what the last minister cameron was talking about, the effect of the invasion of ukraine, the effect in the initial spike in oil prices, thats come down now. Shows our security dependency on fossil fuels which we need to break. And i think that the u. S. Production has helped stabilize prices, and thats for use consumer perspective thats at least in the short term a good tthing. But that doesnt mean thats the solution over the long term. Thats why we need to invest, and were seeing that investment in cleaner technologies. Theres over 220 billion since president in office of investment in clean technology, about over 150 billion about as in electric vehicles and battery manufacturing, reshoring supply chains. Thats the future. But in the meantime we have to manage the economy. Im not all a doom and gloom guy. I cant be because my middle son is verynd focused on this issue and i will have conversations in the car and he will say climate stuff, were finished, we probably messed it up. Good things are happening here. Ill quote statistics about a more rapid uptake in Renewable Solar energy, wind power, and that projections a few years ago. Those are real numbers. They are not partisan numbers. They are real numbers, the reason why i have my cart plugin dumpsters because they couldnt go to my middle child. So talk about what from your perspective is outpacing your projections on the Positive Side of the ledger. Well, i think you mentioned some things. I think t what weve seen is really a renaissance in manufacturing led by these clean technologies. I think that last year, 4 of all spending on building durable goods in the United States, thats really been as a result of people making the transition of moving forward with innovation come with new technology, new commitment, that thats where the future is. The same thing is true in terms of renewable energy. Solar is now the cheapest form of Energy Generation in the world. Thats why its outpaced and now its significant outpacing fossils in terms of electricity production at a global level and why were seeing the big uptake in the United States with respect to the percentage of new production coming on board in the United States. But theres things happening i think as a set across the board, agriculture, building sector, on transition to the overall sales from the pandemic and never slowed down a little bit in terms of what people are doing in terms of even in their own homes to transition from, for example, from gas burning furnaces to heat pumps. But as a percentage of new installations heat pumps are going up. And if think you were juicing across the board this Movement Towards clean energy, and if think that is being led by a policy environment where the government has enabled private sector investment. And the private sector is responding with tremendous energy. One sign of trouble is specifically on off shore wind so with inflation its increased the prices you had company such as shell pulling out of projects marthas vineyard, off of new england. Economics had been your friend to this point particularly on wind but in this case thats not the case, and i want to do think that is a shortterm setbacks . I do. And to think theyre still developing and breaking ground, kind of as we speak. The federal government has done a much better job i think of increasing the pace of permitting in that context. We just permitted the largest when project in the u. S. Off the coast of virginia. That project is on track and a think will be built. We will see the first production off cape cod soon. True the hear offshore wind has been severe because they are dependent on upfront environment as well as taking a little bit of effort and supply chain going in the u. S. And in europe so there is a premium in the u. S. But is the inflation debate, they have the and they are still a strong commitment Going Forward with offerings and those will come in. There is both the federal on both the west coast and east coast and a Big Companies are committed so it will work out. I spent a lot of time in my job on the u. S. Relationship with china and the National Security perspective and flashpoints will and u. S. And china relations. The lunch area is in the world is u. S. And china working together Climate Change will hear from cozy makers cooperation and i wonder if that is something you share, is it warplanes. During her tenure member of 2014 now that in i give credit to secretary for speaking, going back and back and the result of meeting maybe six weeks ago resulted Movement Forward with the commitment for all Greenhouse Gases is an important step china participating whats going on now around methane reduction so thats good news but we are in a different place than before and during my tenure with obama. It is more on edge and we are in a period of real competition and through the operation and not into technological cooperation, semiconductors technologies. The chinese control too much from the security perspective and upstream technologies and upstream solar supply chain around the development what we are trying to do is push toward reassuring and working with our allies to reduce our dependency on china for those critic technologies. I promise, god, i do have one more question. Its almost, i think it is too strong a word in there is an aspect of talking about u. S. Relations but also environmental policies. The election next year which could happen that would eradicate change in the u. S. Approach for this, publicly stated the Science Behind Climate Change. What does it mean for this country, the largest in the world approaching this issue and any commitment today will last beyond the next 11 months, what does it do . They try to reverse the action by a Bipartisan Group so i think in particular this movement from state and local governments, private sectors and universities and nonprofits and etc. Ive met with a lot of them, they have rebranded when i was in dubai and there is tremendous leadership at the state and local level at the business level and they are will pushing forward. What i say about the inflation reduction act, it was maybe the Affordable Care act and would like to believe history would repeat itself but is supposed to be durable because the ten years of support for this Energy Transition built in is resulting in all activity around the country, jobs being created, 210,000 jobs created just sent the bill passed and that is more every month and all across the country. North, south, east to west, people focus on what is happening in california and georgia and michigan and new york and maine, all across the country. That is very hard so i am confident policies are here to stay because the crisis is here to be dealt with and will organize for a long time to come. Do we have a question for the audience . If you could make it brief, keep on scuttling. , is the largest producer, are they doing anything to move away . They are still building and what our diplomacy has done in discussions have emphasized they need to stop building coal and start with the old quote. Their answer is they can manage a massive buildup of renewables they are building in china but they have to stop building coal and they havent stopped yet but if you Power Electric vehicles using coalfired power, having accomplished much yet, just the other side of the question youre asking but i think the pressure i think is most subject to from the rest of the world and particular most Vulnerable Countries we started off with, people bearing the brunt of extreme weather, food and Water Systems of etc. I think the push toward having a change of behavior in china and the United States is an important choice but less of a Global Community that i think is likely to change. Who will say this part of the conversation. Thanks so much. [applause] thank you so much. Ladies and gentlemen, we now have for you a very special treat, we are proud to welcome catherine tie, United States trade representative and what a complicated job at a public it time for free trade among things both the left and right and politics in the United States make it difficult to negotiate trade and feels, shes doing her best, she spent at aipac doing a great job for the country with many meetings and to interview her, we have david weston, thank you so much. [applause] thank you very much for doing this. Everybody wants to hear from you im looking forward to this. So i. Thinking about your job, you hold a multiplayer job, you cover the globe literally but also a lot of gymnastics. Folks think trade is economics which it is but also covers geopolitics which is what this is about to come acclimate in the role of Workers Alliance to let me ask you one specific question touched on the globe that is data and pto you change the policy i think 30 years plus favoring when it comes to dataflow across the flow, why did you do that let me engage with the way you set up, is so important to set up when you say United States trade representative and abroad, i think people would say you have Something Like this. When you say u. S. Trade representative, i try to do as much as i do want trouble, you get blank book, what is the u. S. Trade representative . I think its an important part of the conversation because we sit at the intersection, one is your problem Foreign Policy and if you are right, you have to do trade with other countries and economies so we are part of the Foreign Policy but at the same time, trade is economic and the decisions you make in your Economic Policy impacts your domestic policy so we are equally part of the domestic ignore lessee and we sit at the intersection it is uncomfortable because these two forces are often pulling you in different directions, not always opposite directions so your points more what we do internationally has to be connected to what we are doing and talking about what our calendars are and your question about the wto, the public narrative and this is my opportunity to explain, this is a walkie crowd, we did that for wto will was not to change the position but to withdraw our attributions, withdraw indicated support for three or four proposals the ongoing wto negotiations, the ecommerce agreement. It is not a full wto negotiation, it is a subset of about 90, a significant portion of the wto. What we did was we look at what our positions are and except whether or not they are still lined with domestic conversations, domestic Regulatory Environment for these issues and get us it is ecommerce, it is a negotiation over Digital Economy because it is so much of the economy, everything we do in the economy now touches on technology and data. As we are looking we saw yes, yes, yes, for most of the proposal, we are still where we have been in a couple of the proposed formal concept kill really significant with data, data flows, data storage, data localization and also source code. These three areas what i saw was it is that they we are having at home the conversation around technology and Technological Advancement and data and regulation of the Digital Economy shifted significant since putting the proposals forward in 2019. As a result we needed to withdraw attributions to create to come up with new positions and a new orientation for engaging with the other 90 countries negotiated with. Just so i understand, is it a matter of domestic questions of regulation . Was a question of international doing . Its own position on bookings talking about dataflow or is it combination . I think there are two aspects. Let me take the first one terms of connection but we are doing internationally in terms of trade and economic about negotiations and what is going on at home. Will i remember it was my senior year of college december between junior and senior year the World Wide Web was rolled out for the world and i remember coming back to the question was, briefly your mouth . You pass over texted of it highlighted, it means you can click on it. Cost my senior year of college so a lot has changed in a short amount of time. We in the United States dont have a very robust regulatory system for the technology and economy environment. We are struggling every day because in the last almost 30 years so much has changed in the rules we put in place and we dont have rules for a lot of it is starting to come home to roost we are starting to feel like the applications of regulatory system that started in the 90s and hasnt evolved very far, it creates disconnect with the implications of this advancement so i will give you a specific example that may resonate with a lot of people, be unveiling of chatgpt in the spring i think was a wakeup moment that theres a lot of innovation going on in our economy, that is great but holy jesus had the opportunity to participate a. I. Time they were getting coming up with hilariously funny outcomes where you have a. I. Write a joke in the joke that came out was almost never funny or funny because it was so unfunny. Five years ago in 2019, 2018 we are thinking a lot of potential, innovation but we dont have to be worried because it is still very rudimentary. For a bit of time to put confidence blowing everybodys mind. Not just to massive amounts of data for access powerful computing processes. You married those two up and push the innovation and acknowledgment. Who does access to data very small number almost all if not all and data flows some localization in these negotiations the question we have to answer of authority between the private sector and in the government and regulatory authority. Who gets to decide or control clearly stated strict, where it needs to be and when access is required in those issues are consequential not just for trade and economic but our entire society and these issues need if we are going to need, the trade rules of the time when there is no consensus Million Committee massive malpractice will in getting a of all of the other conversations we need to make as a country. Can be too lower behind or ahead. You said almost all. It is going very fast. Some important affairs and armscontrol over a. I. Does that make sense to you . Safe on the Foreign Policy team which i am, the National Security issue you think of it as a band secretary alston and secretary clinton are like the lead singer and lead bassist. [laughter] may be a backup singer or dancer. We are absolutely a part of the team but im not i dont think i should be driving back security. This is very much approved today. I am thinking about how we can democratize Economic Opportunity at home in america and how we can do that with our partners how we can do the same thing at home, in terms of treating data as a National Security controlled substance. I understand why that has relevance but i think we also have to understand the criticality of the data to start a regular economic vibrancy. Youve taken us to a version of the indo pacific, President Biden went to asia, you are pretty close to the lead singer on it. Give us a sense where that stands. There were expectations, some people didnt feel like we did. Is that an accurate perception and if so, why didnt we make it . Some people did express this point but let me say what we did. The Economic Framework is an Economic Engagement framework and program for our partnership with our friends in the indo pacific. It has four pillars. We are very much applying lessons we have learned from the past 7 or 8 years. Trade is a pillar. In addition to trade we had a pillar on supply chain and infrastructure, climate financing and the last one on anticorruption. I think of it as good government. We feel that is more comprehensive Economic Engagement than trade negotiations. s designed to be responsive to what all 14 countries in the indo pacific groundwork are grappling with today and those are economically with respect to our resilience, sustainability and with respect to the inclusivity of economic outcomes we are having at home and to gather. Each one of those pieces. On trade, within the trade pillar it is not a traditional freetrade agreement. There are things we did that we are not doing in the trade pillar. Paris negotiations. We are not doing them because right now in terms of aggressive tariff, we cant do a Tariff Program that will serve the purpose of resilience. More resilient supply chain but everything we have in the trade pillar had to answer yes to one or more of the following questions. Does this topic, this tweet of rules promote more resilience, more sustainability or inclusivity . We have been working hard to work out ten issue areas in the trade pillar. Weve made significant progress to achieving consensus in 5. 5 of them. Regardless what we were planning to do, we had a full 24 negotiation agenda and we are committed to continuing with it and partners told us that we are continuing to negotiate on it. Part of democracy is politics. Do we expect Real Progress in the Economic Framework an Election Year because there are real domestic consequences. I would say this. The lessons we learned from the past 7 years on trade mean we cant ever ignore the political consequences. In terms of looking at next year it will be a particularly Political Year but the issue of trade is inherently political. To your point, when you are a part of the domestic Economic Policy team, how what you do impacts americans at the Kitchen Table is always relevant. I think from my perspective next year for us we will be sensitive to the scale but not the nature of the year. Everything we are doing we stand 100 behind what we brought to how we scoped and designed the negotiation. Lets talk about how you invest your capital. You are responsible for trade agreements. New trade agreements expanding current trade agreements or enforcing existing trade agreements. How do you allocate your time and resources to those three . This is how you do it. You spend one hundred of your time negotiating and one hundred of your time enforcing and 100 of your time expanding. I will take it as a segue to talking about our enforcement agenda. We do a lot of things. We are responsible for trade policy. In terms of trade enforcement, in order for our trade agreement and trade arrangement, we have to hold our partners accountable for the promises they have made to us and our stakeholders and their stakeholders too. We need to take the enforcement agenda extremely seriously, high priority. A couple things i want to highlight. One with respect to the us mca which is the renewed nafta. That got a lot of headlines. It is a very very interesting articulation of the basis for modern new us trade policy. One of the most important aspects of the us mca, it has much stronger labor and environmental standards, stronger Enforcement Mechanisms and a labor specific enforcement mechanism we call the Rapid Response mechanism. To Work Together to reach and pierce the veil of state to state interaction to focus on specific facilities in mexico that are not respecting mexicos laws on labor justice or the mcas rule and weve activated this mechanism, the Current County 16 times, 14 times at the behest of petitioners, twice on our own initiative and in every one of those cases weve seen through to the end we have a real benefit for workers in mexico. Democracy and democratization of Economic Opportunity. To advocate working conditions, i think it is not an accident that right now 90 of the cases we have brought were in the auto sector. One specific example. Early on in the first year one of the first three cases was related to a gm facility in mexico. As a result of our work in partnership with the Mexican Government the workers at the facility were able to win a new vote for the union. They voted in a truly independent union to represent them. They voted on a collective Bargaining Agreement negotiated for them that they saw before they voted to approve it and they won better benefits, they won the first wage increase they had in years with 10 wage increase and it went up 10 . These are real whens. The most significant part of this is what we are doing is relevant to everybody who is interested in trade. We flipped the narrative on its head. For the first time ever, we are offering workers a mechanism for their own advocacy and empowerment through a trade agreement. Without the trade agreement they wouldnt have this mechanism. This is one of the cornerstone of the Worker Center trade policy which is to drive the trade policy more americans feel will tap their interests. On the other hand we are doing a lot for our farmers as we always had, and without leading that agreement i will say weve taken seriously our corn producers concerns around the mexican decree, we initiated settlement cases and are litigating it out right now. On the subject of expanding existing agreements, your counterpart in taiwan said you can get a freetrade agreement, expand that and raise geopolitical Foreign Policy issues. Are you open to that . The negotiation we are having with taiwan every trade negotiation has an element that is baked into it that they are trying to be responsive to the data and feedback we are getting from the world economy. There are so many changes going on simultaneously come our smartest economists, even my colleague janet yellen who is a legend in macroeconomics, no one can explain what happened or what is going to happen next. From a trade policy perspective, what weve been disappointed in trying to do is let us bring the trade program to each one of our partners that is tailored to that partner, tailored to their interests, tailored to the challenges and dynamics we are navigating in the Global Economy. What that meant is we are negotiating agreements and the First Agreement we have with taiwan covers five issue areas, regulatory practices and i have to look at that, a core group of 5 disciplines, we signed that agreement. Congress in a fit of enthusiasm, to show their support for what we are doing at on basis of that support negotiating another set of disciplines, making excellent progress and continue to look at those agreements to have an arrangement with the taiwan economy that is fit for the times. Times are challenging and this is one of the accomplishments we are committed to. You dont rule out a free trade agreement. What do you mean by freetrade agreement . The traditional approach to a comprehensive liberalizing aggressively liberalizing agreement, we are not doing that with anybody and it is insensitive to the Global Economy right now to push on with that program which may have been fit for the 80s 90s showing its age in 2,000two thousand ten. It is 2023. We need new policies. There is innovation all around us. Lets renegotiate those agreements. Ai isnt a thing we talked about. In all these ways we have not experienced the pandemic. As much as we embrace americans and in our economy, embracing trade policy. If by fda, innovating trade agreements, aggressively, but in new ways, what we used to do, then know. You said trade has a role in that, what specifically can you do. I want to be more pointed than that. Why dont we have a carbon adjustment tax . We heard from President Biden about that and the proposal didnt go forward. Why dont we just do that . Trade has to be part of the solution. Why arent we there yet . You are telling the wrong person. That question needs to go to the u. S. Congress. Who writes the tax policy . Dont get me wrong, we each have our respective roles prescribed by the founding documents, the u. S. Constitution with respect to tax policy. That is the jurisdiction of the United States congress. We have to, we have to have that congressional, legislative revenue outlook and consensus or at least the basis, before i can do anything appreciably meaningful in trade to. Thats true for climate and also digital. Is the Biden Administration pressing actively for carbon adjustment tax . Are repressing aggressively . To get them if john podesta is still in the building you should ask them to come back and ask him that question. The original question, what are we doing with respect to trade . The most important thing we have been doing, another of our innovative trade initiatives has been the negotiation of a global arrangement with europe so we ve had section 232 global tariffs. The Biden Administration has perfected it with respect to global overcapacity and Global Market distortions. That is a fact we have to contend with. We have to be a steel producer including for National Security reasons, we shouldnt be taking that on our loan. The distortions are happening to our partners too. We joined forces with the europeans to say lets figure out how we can normalize trade but Work Together to defend our economies against unfair trade and unfair production and create incentives for cleaner trade and cleaner production. The europeans put forward and are rolling out a carbon adjustment mechanism that covers five or six sectors that include ceiling that. Will that is what we are working towards. We give ourselves two years. We will need more time. We are committed in the Biden Administration on behalf of the United States to work on the issue with europe because it is so important and it is foundational he important to create a template for what we might do. Host one more question on africa. It is important overall and i know it is important to you. Where are we right now . So i think that next week will be thehe one year anniversy of President Bidens African Leaders summit, which we host last year in december. At the conclusion of that summit, President Biden gave an instruction to all of us in his administration, which is build partnerships with africa, with the continent come with the countries, with the region. And each one of us was encouraged to go to africa early often. Ive been to the continent twice this year. One trip in july went to kenya. Were negotiating another one of our innovative trade arrangements with kenya. The other one was last month to johannesburg when south africa hosted the trade program that we have with subsaharan africa. These engagements and these exercises that ive been involved in our to pursue and enhanced, robust, new approach to a u. S. Africa Economic Partnership that helps us harness and develop the potential of africa to be the economic engine that drives growth in the specs. Of globalization. But in order to do that were going to needod to figure how to do it differently. Were going to need to develop develop models are more effective and more successful for both sides of the equation. And a very, very excited about what were doing. Madam ambassador, inc. Is a much for your time. Great to have you here. Ambassador katherine tai, he was a trade. [applause] cspan is your unfiltered view of government. We are funded by the Television Companies and more including comcast. Are you think this is just beginning to center . Its way more than that. Comcast is partnering with 1000 committed centers to create wifi enabled a lift zones substance from lowincome families can get the tools they need to be ready for anything. Comcastupports cspan is a Public Service along with these other Television Providers giving you a front row seat to democracy. Today what cspans 2024 campaign trail a weekly round up of cspans Campaign Coverage providing a onestop shop to discover where the candidates are traveling across the country and what theyre saying to voters. 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