Cyclically terms. This requires someone to make the calculation of what the appropriate adjustment is. Right . This is not an observed variable. This is a calculated variable. And it is a group of economy mists that are going to be making this judgment as to what the structural deficit for any country in the euro is. Is it conceivable that serious consequences could hinge on the accuracy of this calculation when in fact economists differ widely on how it should be done. There was an interesting article a month ago on the range of calculations for these kinds of adjustments that are done on behalf of the oced and the range is fairly large. Its not conceivable to me that a large fine or a serious consequences would be delivered on the basis of a technical argument like this. Its going to be more lit call and resolved in a political way. And so thats why i think we need to i think this is an argument for a much more decentralized system of fiscal enforcement which has to come with this no bailout clause. Thank you. David . So professor argument about what political message is or is not being sent. Im reminded, i covered the french, dush, spanish referendums on the constitution and i remember when the irish voted note and the french voted no and the dutch voted no, all people said none of them have read the constitution so why should we listen to that theyve said. It didnt really mean that the constitution wasnt the right solution. So that came out and turn it into a new form and called it something else. And that was fine. But at some point if you insist there are no messages being sent of any sort, if you insist the dutch werent saying we want to put our foot on the break in terms of european immigration or we are now uneasy about globalization and all manner of liberal things and europe has become a proxy for those, or if you ignore the fact that in frans europe is an avatar for, you know, free Market Economics in a european context, you can keep ignoring all of those things as long as you like haen make a perfectly technically accurate argument. And it is true in this most recent european elections, a lot of it was not about the Work Programs of the large parties in the European Parliament. Im the first to admit that the European Parliament has no mandate for what it says it has a mandate for. The point im making is at some point you hit the wall. What is the wall . Is the wall the National Front winning the elections in france . That doesnt matter. Because it wont have a direct effect. It wont be the national mvps will control the votes but it will have an incorrect effect every time theres a fork in the road where National Government o or the big parties, there will be endless forks in the road. Shall we do the populous easy thing, shall we do the open thing, shall we do the closed thing. One of her first demands was to scrap the negotiations. Is it in her pow tore scrap the negotiations . No it shes only the woman who runs the party who won the french election. But i bet it makes it harder for france to agree to stuff. I bet it doesnt help. I bet its really unhelpful when american says to europe putin has done this, we need to do some serious tough sanctions now because the western world needs to alie itself against russia. Does it matter that so many of these far right parties have basically more sympathetic to russia than america . I bet it matters in terms of whether europe goes along with those tough sanctions or doesnt. When britain comes through and says, high are the concessions that we would like. Plenty of conservative members of parliament who dont like their prime minister, they think if they had a much tougher, more antieuropean, more antiimmigration line, their seats will be safer next year at the general election. That will dramatically impact David Camerons room for maneuver. It will harden the list of thing they ask for if we get to that point. It will make britain much less realistic about what is possible and the other parties will make it more difficult for National Government to let britain have what it wants. It makes it that much more likely, much harder for britain to stay in. On all of these marginal calls, you know, thats how politics work. Politics is like the weather. Theres a freezing gale out there and that makes todays people put on an overcoat and scarf and hunker down. Its at that level that it makes a difference. You can ignore it, you can give me lots of clever reasons to ignore it, but at some point, you know, its going to catch up with you. Youre going to hit the wall. And we may have hit the wall right now. But you cant keep ignoring this stuff saying it doesnt mean anything. Jeremy are we finishing up now with the break for 15 minutes or are we running until 10 45 . Unfortunately we dont have time for more questions. But there will be plenty of time to address those questions i think in the next session which is on the role of the european world. Id like to thank our panelists. [ applause ] well reconvene here in ten to 15 minutes. I would like to ask the panelists for the next panel to meet over here so you can sort of discuss as the next panel in advance. Thank you very much. Peter dixon, the ceo of second front systems, offered suggestions on how to formulate a Cyber Security strategy today. This is about 10 minutes. This is a verse from kipling. It echoes and some of my bitter memories. Comradesll friends and who were cut down in their prime a jug ofg more than modified fertilizer, a battery pack, two boards connected by a nail. Good morning. I am a marine combat veteran and i am 31 years old and spend the better part of my life my last decade at war against this nations enemies and are foes. Etric ph my life was forever changed on 9 11 when terrorists armed with nothing more than cutters box cutters took planes out of the blue sky. Up myself, i ended commissioning into the marine corps, took a sniper platoon and ancestry infantry platoon to bore in afghanistan, served on the border between a rock and syria and iraq and executed special projects of the pentagon. For this nation, what made us so vulnerable on that fateful september day was the same exact thing that i saw on the battlefield in both afghanistan and iraq. A technical transformation occurred in this country and swept through our private sector wayspended the traditional we communicated and collaborated and even thought. The technical transformation largely swept by the u. S. Government. Noticed that men in florida were learning how to fly planes, but did not care too much on learning how to land them, that went up the chain of attention,s given and went nowhere else. Likewise, when we invaded afghanistan, and then iraq, we were engaged against asymmetric enemies who bypassed her strengths and targeted her our strengths and targeted our weaknesses and the improvised explosive devices that used them stated our forces on the ground. To their enduring credit, the u. S. Military and Intelligence Community transformed themselves in the face of this new threat. Groups like the joint improvised explosive device defeat to maketion stood up drastic changes in the way the lifesaving technology was procured and delivered to the battlefield. Organizations like the joint special Operations Command transformed themselves into a. Etwork bestofbreed technologies were sourced from places like the and big datay process and transformed how we found and destroyed our adversaries. As this nation washes its hands of over a decade of bloody war, we find ourselves all too eager to dismantle those same innovative organizations that laid such a Critical Role in bringing us back from the brink laid such a Critical Role in bringing us back from the brink. The problem is there is a new crop of threats. A new crop of adversary threats and while we have those of us who paid a heavy price to learn lessons in counterinsurgency, what we have struggled to retain those against those who believe that america will never again be involved in a dirty ground war, these new threats are gaining ground. The american system is underwritten by our security and our International Security guarantees. There are three revisionist nations that seek to roll back these guarantees, push back our frontiers, and carveout regions of dominance. These nations china, russia, and iran, using every lever under the power, military, intelligence, economics, criminal, media, and a new form of hybrid warfare. For these nations, the most promising weapon and arsenals is cyber. For them, they see it as the arrow in their quiver which can strike at americas achilles heel. I do believe in the possibility of a cyber 9 11. I also believe in threats and Cyber Threats that are deeply tied to the geopolitical world in which we live. And a see that in russia modernized russia that swept across the Crimean Peninsula with the military tactical radios, new uniforms, a conspicuous lack of drunkenness. They executed strategic surprise and the integrated tactical Cyber Operations with every. Lement of their advance we can also see that on the strategic stage where if russia takes a page from the iranians books and as they continue to carve out a sphere of dominance and what they term the new around, if our sanctions ever rise to match our rhetoric, they will hit back at us and they will hit back with Cyber Capabilities through the same type of hybrid adversaries on the military side, we see it with the green men operating in ukraine. Just like iran has hezbollah. Those three nations all have hybrid paramilitary groups to do much the same thing, operating with the benefit of both decentralized decisionmaking and deniability for the state, but with access to sophisticated cyber stay like capabilities. Capabilities. What is scary about the russians theirre hackers hackers are the same guys that cut their teeth in criminal syndicates. If they are given the nod by the it will be much more effective and much more lethal to the future of our american banks and financial institutions. As cyber transforms, our marines and soldiers must learn how to bring Cyber Operations and to everything that they do, suppressing their own electronic and cyber signature while raising the enemies. That is going to need three things. The same adversaries that are hitting our private sector today are the asymmetrical adversaries that will be hitting our government tomorrow. In the government, we cloak ourselves with clearances and need to know, but it is us that should be knocking down the door of the private sector, taking their Lessons Learned and looking to adapt their technology. Especially when they are spending 50 times of what we are. On small longer rely schools that take years to produce cyber warriors. For this next generation of digital natives, and i may be on i am considered a kid here, but im considered an old man in silicon valley. They cannot understand why facebook has better facial Recognition Software that many of us have access to in National Security or where we are all still carrying blackberries, or why powerpoint is our primary means of communication. I am seeing a few smiles here. That theot amusing is dod acquisition cycle is 105 months long. What they cannot understand is not that Edward Snowden and manning betrayed this country, there they were able to but that they were able to. Organizations that were so effective in confronting the last asymmetric threats are the same organizations that are hungry to confront these rising threats. Rather than dismantle them, we should be safeguarding and replicating them. All of this is possible. Is achievable if all of us who had our lives transformed by the horror of 9 11, if we commit ourselves renewed to never returning to business as usual. We may crave peace after all of war, our this asymmetric adversaries are whether that next fertilizer or inbox clutter on a plane or whether be a bundle of malicious code in the wrong place at the right time. Thank you. [applause] a form on the u. S. Battle against al qaeda in afghanistan. Then q a with George Miller journal. The Senate Homeland security and Governmental Affairs committee will hold a hearing on u. S. Border security. Officials will testify. We will have that live at 3 30 p. M. Eastern on cspan 3. For over 35 years, cspan brings Public Affairs events from washington directly to you, putting you in the room at congressional hearings and white house events. In offering complete gaveltogavel coverage of the u. S. House. Cspan, created by the cable tv industry 35 years ago and brought to you as a Public Service by your local cable or satellite provider. Like this on facebook and follow us on twitter. President s presence in a guest and winds down, some intelligence assessments have warned that al qaeda and other terrorist groups are beginning to resurface. This is an hour and a half. I am a Senior Analyst and ive been working on al qaeda for the past five years. I am hoping this will be a very interesting discussion. Mary just joined us here at aei after being a professor and she is publishing a sequel to her book, which will focus on al qaedas grand strategy. Also just reported published a report called getting it right. E is a senior fellow his work is available through also at selected wisdom blog. I will be moderating their discussion and ive asked them to keep their answers short. Looking forward to what will be a lively discussion on al qaeda. Let me asking a basic question. What is al qaeda . Thank you for having me here. Run and write a lot of crazy stuff over the years and let me publish and i appreciate that. I will start off with some of my jihadis online. This is a very difficult position we are and then it is not just as strong to figure out who was an al qaeda. Al qaeda is trying to figure out who was in al qaeda. You see a person on the coast of i am not authorized to speak about that. The ironic thing if you give someone an oath of loyalty that you have to keep following them even if hes wrong. Laden . Bin what is going on a no credit right now. The funniest thing about our discussion is that al qaeda might be the second most today. Nt Jihadist Group in the past three weeks, cells have been disrupted in saudi arabia. You had the Jewish Museum shooter. Does not look like he was commanded by them. Ago, you haveays reports from germany that they disrupted a cell. None of this was commanded or let by al qaeda central. When we are talking about is al qaeda winning . Lets say we wanted to know about the state of major league baseball. I would say how are the cardinals doing . The centerls, while of the baseball universe, are one of only 26 teams. That is only 26 teams if you count the astros and the blue jays, which we should probably get rid of. They were the ones leading, they called themselves the vanguard and they led