Ronald reagan and bresnev were going to get us into a thermal nuclear war. The name is obviously taken from the bible the book of isiah, appropriate here on palm sunday. They shall beat their swords into plow shares and spears into hooks and make wars no more. Were dedicated to reducing nuclear threats. We are going to be fighting an increase in the military budget. We dont think we theed more weapons taking away from our other pressing security and domestic needs. To invest more in the mass movement. Historic, unprecedented civic involvement that has occurred just over the last 100 days or so in our nation. We raise money from generous people and give it to the the best people with the smartest ideas. So if you have money or need money, please call me after the show. Host and the website is plow shares. Org for more information. Guest spelled the english way. Host thank you for that. Ere were we raise money from R International incidents. North korea as well as syria. First lets talk about north korea more missile tests. Guest north korea is ramping up its program. Ive been tracking this program fom 35 years ive been here in washington doing Nuclear Policy all that time. Weve never seen a period like this. Theyve always been playing with it. Theyve always been making some advances but theyve done more tests in the last couple of years than theyve done probably in the history of the program. If they are not stopped, they will get what they dont have now. A long range Ballistic Missile and icbm that can hit at least the west coast of the United States and not just an atomic bomb to put on it but probably an hbomb, a Thermo Nuclear bomb, 10, 20, 30 times more powerful. Thats where theyre going. I expect we might see another nuclear test relatively soon. Weve seen their test sites. E of our grantees, a group called 38 north does satellite surveillance. Theres a lot of activity. April 15 is the birthday, the anniversary of the founder of north korea. So thats a time when they normally do Something Like this. So you could see a new test this month. Thats one of the reasons u. S. Navy ships are steaming towards the Korean Peninsula at least to be prepared. Host that latest news says a u. S. Navy strike group led by the uss carl vinson aircraft carkier was making its way toward the Korean Peninsula unday to maintain readiness. Guest you never know for sure but i would say this is a reassurance move. This is what you want our allies, japan, and south korea but also the the region as a whole to know that we are weve got their back. We have a military force that is formidible. A Navy AircraftCarrier Strike force has a lot of destructive power in its ships, in its plains, any case anything prove oktive should happen we would be able to take care of them. So its mainly for reassurance. It also is an implied threat particularly after the strike on syria theres some that are thinking that donald trump wants to be unpredictable. Wants to have the threat that he would take military option against north korea even after something thats relatively benign, not directly threatening. Like another missile test, like a Nuclear Weapon test. Host we are talking with joseph, president of plow shares fund. Is plow share or plow shares . Got it right the first time. Republicans can call the umbers on republicans and democrats, and independents can call the the numbers on their screen. Lets turn to syria for a moment after the air strike there. Whats your reaction both to the chemical attack and the the guest the the chemical attack is horrendous and deserves the strongest possible interaction reaction. Im somewhat disappointed that its only the United States not our nato allies. Its exactly this kind of situation where a military strike does have some justification to try to stop this horrific attack. Fortunately we got almost all weapons out of syria already. As bad as this was, 140 people killed, saddam rather, sher had enough chemical weapons, about 1300 tons of nerve gas and mustard gas, enough to kill every man, woman, and child in the middle east. Fortunately, the deal that the obama and secretary kerry struck got all of that out. It doesnt look like we got it all or they may have made some new ones and its terrible. But it could have been so much worse. So were lucky that we had that deal. What does the strike do . Unfortunately, not too much. It isnt really very militarily effective. Over the last two or three years since 2014 u. S. Forces and our Coalition Forces have conducted almost 20,000 air strikes against in iraq and syria. About half in syria. Its cost us almost 12 billion. So compared to that amount of ordinance, that amount of military operations, president trumps strike is a pin prick it hardly matters. As you can see the syrian planes are flying again from that air strip. Theyre bombing again the town that was hit with the chemical strike. So a lot depends on what happens next. Wheres the strategy . What flows from this or was it st a oneoff that got some favorable press for a couple of days host one of our u. S. Alice, russia is accused of complicity in favorable press for a syria war thats the fropt page of the sunday times in the u. K. The bbc reports that russia is to blame for every syrian death in the last weeks chemical weapons attack in syria. Defense secretary sir michael fallin has claimed. Guest thats i think tue. The person who guise the gun and gives it to the killer. The killer shoots somebody. And you say i didnt do it. Well, they were there at the air base. We dont know exactly but somewhere between a dozen to 100 russian personnel. They were assisting in this. The munitions that they used. The planes that they use. Russian supplied. Russias been giving them logistical support. Thats just in the immediate act over the the last several years russias moved big into syria. Assad was teetering, he was on the verge of collapse. The russians came in and propped him up and done almost all the been responsible for most of the massive killing over the last couple of years. It was horrendous before that. It has gotten a lot worse as the russians entered in this way. And the iranians as well. More ground troops. But the iranians bear blame here as well. Host we are talking to joseph, of plow shares fund about this situation in syria with the chemical keapses attack there as well as the Nuclear Activity in north korea. Ronald from fate vist, north carolina. Good morning. Caller good morning. My question is, ok, everybody those cruise missiles that were sent into syria. Do they know how much those cost . And the the airport is still running. We need to have a good Foreign Policy if we are going to be doing Something Like that, i would think. We need the next time we send a missile strike we need to the take out the the airport instead of the airport is open right now. Thats my biggest thing. If they shoot off another chemical then what . Guest thats exactly right. As far as this particular strike, 59 tomahawk from Navy Cruisers and destroyers cost about the 50 million to do this strike. Thats for the ordinance. It doesnt really count the operations. Some people say perhaps as much as 80 million total. The pentagon has contingencies for everything. Ive worked with the military for many, many years. I used to be on the House Armed ServicesCommittee Staff over in congress. I have tremendous appreciation for their skill, for their ability. The plan with precision. They presented the president with a series of options, three major options which show that the according to reports and he picked the lightest one, the one with the least possibility of killing russian or escalating the conflict. He chose not to crater the runway. We have weapons that could have craterd that runway, be a more powerful strike, might have required some air delivery. But we even have tomahawks that are capable of cratering the runway. Why. T know i think its a bad image to see the planes taking off again. And there doesnt appear to be a plan for what next. This is the big criticism. President trump doesnt have a Foreign Policy. He has a series of impulses. He doesnt have a strategic vision. He has a collection of ideas of actions that he wants to take for various reasons. Well have to see. What happens over the the next week or so could be the most important week yet in this still young presidency. Host in a statement on syria, israeli Prime Minister said he hopes u. S. Strike on syria will resonate not only in damascus. He said guest this is the school of thought that only military strikes show resolve. Patient diplomacy isnt resolved. Wisdom isnt resolved. Getting agreement. No. You have to drop bombs on people. And its spurred by the fascination of our media who love to watch things blow up. So this strike was very popular with politicians, very popular with journalists. Very popular with the public. People watched this thing. This is gripping tv. This is mustsee tv. Peoples ratings go up. So theres a washington establishment g pulse to support this. Then you have people like who want to take it to something else. Thai dont really care about syria. What they care about is iran. So you already see people writing op eds who want to take to something else. Thai dont lets go to war with iran. Lets show iran our resolve. That is idiotic. That is idiotic. You cannot apply this strike against a relatively weak and relatively defenseless syria to north korea and iran. Why . North korea and iran shoot back. You hit them, theyre going to hit back. There is no oneoff strike with those guys. You hit them, youre starting a war youd better be ready for it. Host does the strike in syria as any detriment yl preventative to iran or north korea . Does that make them think twice . I would say yes. Theres a little hesitation not because of resolve but because of unpredictability. Kind of that nixon mad man theory. Theyre thinking this guy actually could do this. For example, during the iraq war in 2003, the 2003 invasion, i was completely against that. I was at the endowment i would about saying, no, he doesnt have wmd. You dont need to go to war to get the wmd. And i was convinced up until the last moment that president bush wouldnt do this because it was so stupid. But just because something is stupid doesnt mean president s wont do it. So you do have to be worried that there will be some kind of calculation or miscalculation in korea that could lead to the president ordering a strike of some kind. Conventional, maybe. Some of his advisers are urging. Even nuclear. So yes the risk calculations go up treppedsly and that does into north or korea and iranian calculations. Host lee from minnesota. Caller good morning. I would like to inform the American People that first of attack r assad is not with chemical weapons or nothing. Bash shar assad attacked isis weapon depot. Isis produced chemical weapons. And isis gets all those ingredients from turkish chemical factories. All isis fighters, subhumans i like to call them, when they get injured on the battlefield, they go to turkey hospitals, they get the Top Health Care by turkish government,. And they get financed from saudi arabia. Qatar and turkey. Ow, this is the proxy war. First, we had to handle what is going on in there. You know what is going on . The big gas and oil pipeline going from qatar to the mediterranean. So some country, i dont know who maybe u. S. Or some other people they want to destabilize the middle east including northern iraq. Now theyre building other countries called kyrgyzstan. , syria, iran against turkey against. But we are destabilizing in the middle east. Host lets give joe a chance to respond. Guest we are definitely destabilizing the middle east. Ever since the iraq invasion of 2003, the middle east has been more or less rapidly falling apart. We went in and just started knocking things over, knocking down longstanding governments in afghanistan and iraq. They thought now is the time, spring rises up but the forces of dictatership come and clamp down. The American People are tired of 14, 15 years of war there. They dont want us to go back. But the region is really in chaos because of what we did in 2003. A lot of the columns you see even today robert kagen blamed it all on obama. Obama came in and tried to fix this mess, couldnt do it. Couldnt fix it fast enough. I think were in for a couple of decades of tumlt and chaos in the middle east. This idea that the chemical weapons came from isis, this is what the russians say. This is what syria says. We dont have chemicals weapons. This is the definition of fake news. It is not a news broadcast that you di ace gree with. Its something that is made thi chemical weapons came from up with without a shred of evidence to support it. There is no evidence to support what you just said. Its syria that has the chemical weapons that knows how to make sarin. Its possible we got the weapons out but they were able to remake it in a basement in a small office undetected. Theres no evidence that isis has this kind of capability. If they have it why havent they used it somethe obble people weve seen using this is the southeastern air force. So im afraid this is a syrian effort. I think he thought he got the green light. Remember a week ago rex tillerson, secretary of state, and others in the white house said that we didnt care if assad stayed or not. That wasnt our business. It was up to the syrian people. I think assad thought he had the green light. He has been losing a little last few in the weeks, particularly in that rebel controlled area so he wanted to panic those people show them he could do whatever he wanted. He got cocky, arrogant. And this time it came back to bite him. Host your organization partnered with two members of congress. Democrat congressman ted lieu and edward marky. Congressman lieu of california and senator markey of massachusetts. Filed the redistricting first use of Nuclear Weapons act of 2017. Tell us what that is. Guest restricting the the first use. Most people by now have come to understand that the only person in the United States who can authorize the use of a Nuclear Weapon is the president. Once the president makes that decision he can give the order and within four minutes the missiles will be flying and they cannot be recalled. There is no tom cruise who is going to come in and hack the Guidance System and redirect it. Doesnt happen. They go, theyre designed to go. The decision process is designed to be decisive and rapid. So he doesnt have to consult with congress, he doesnt have. They go, to consult with his cabinet. Theres nobody who can overrule him. So you just saw the president the of the United States make a very impulsive decision, make a 180 degree turn on one of his core Foreign Policy issues, do not bomb syria. Then hes bombing syria. This president can also decide to use a Nuclear Weapon in less time should he have that authority. Should any president have that authority. This is what ted lieu, an air force veteran says. This is what ed marky a longtime legislator says. Lets restore the congressional role. If the president wants to use a Nuclear Weapon first, were not under attack, its his choy to go first, he should bring that decision to congress. Congress and congress alone has the Constitutional Authority to declare war. If you ah gree with this, please go to the our website and sign our petition. Were trying to get half a million signatures to present to congress and have a confrns when they come back from recess. The press conference to publicize the bill. Host bob from tennessee. Good morning. Caller i appreciate you taking my call. First of all trumps not going to tell you exactly what he is going to do. Because thats a dumb strategy. And the u. N. s another big problem because like you dont go tell the other team were going to have ten run plays. Theyll prepare for it. But anyway, guest thats an interesting part of his policy and a key part of his strategy, surprise. And to create new facts on the ground. Widen the operating space. Yes. Ost marjorie from new york. Caller good morning. Im so happy that you took my call. Alassad trump and are both owned by putin. Needed fell through he cover. I believe needed cover. I believe that putin is giving him this cover. I dont think it has anything to do about what a big guy he is. And hes taking on people because of what happened. I believe that it is putin that is propping him up. Thank you so much. Guest thats absolutely true. Syria is very important to russia which is why theyre so angry now at this strike. This is their only overseas military facility. Its a warm water port that they get on the syrian coastline. This is one of their few allies, when you think of russia. Its really isolated in the world. Belarus and syria. So yes putins hand is it. Itely behind if russia would just cooperate in forging a diplomaic solution, which is the only way this war is going to end, theres no military solution to this civil war. If putin would cooperate we could resolve the syria problem in a matter of months. A cease fire, humanitarian corridors for assistance, safe zones for people. All this could be done if russia would cooperate. Host joseph, president of plow shares fund. A former Senior Vice President of National Security and International Policy at the center for american progress. And formerly director for nonproliferation at the the Carnegie Endowment foR International peace. Lets go back to north korea for a moment. The bbc put out some map that demonstrate the Nuclear Capability there just how far they can reach. What do we know about north koreas Nuclear Capability and can it reach the United States . Guest we have very good Intelligence Service this is this country. We knew in syria the airfield where the Chemical Attacks had taken pleas. We knew the plane that had delivered the bomb. So dont underestimate what we know. We know that north korea has made enough material for somewhere around 20 fuke clear weapons. Its not clear how many of those it manufactured. Its not absolutely certain whether theyve gotten them small enough to be able to put on the nose cone of a missile. But we believe thats true. We know that they do not have a long range missile. They dont have something that can hit the United States. Which is good. Because we would have no way to stop it despite our interceptors that we deployed. Our interceptors are completely ineffective against that threat. What they do have is short range missiles, scuds and no dongs and others that can hit south korea that can hit japan. So right now as opposed to ten years ago south korea and japan are under risk of a Nuclear Armed missile from north korea. This is an extremely serious situation. And their arsenal is growing. We estimate if this continues, certainly within the the next five to ten years they might have 100 Nuclear Weapons and long range missiles that can hit the United States fundamentally altering the calculus in the region. Host alfred from the bronx. Quiveragetsdz good morning. Guest good morning. Borning in the bronx. Caller i know yo. I mean, i know. I believe this was the first mistake of president trump. I voted for him. I vote democrat normally but this time i voted for him. I am unhappy for one thing because in syria with the dictater is only the dictater who has to save borning in the syrians for years. Only safe haven for christians in syria. President trump is much better to create a safe haven for christians rather than attack and they remove him. Because he is going to remove assad we know who is going to come in. People, theyre going to start attacking christians just like they do in egypt, libya, in other countries. Guest this is a very people, t to start attacking good point. President obama gets a bum rap for socalled hesitation. What it was is thinking out the problem. He didnt want to make what he called the fallsy of the last move thinking that you make a move and then the game is over. No. The game is not over. The other side gets many moves. So you do Something Like a bombing attack, where does that go . What happens when it pruste to be ineffective . Do you ratchet it up . Where does that end . How do you solve this problem . One of the things they concluded is just what you say. There are worse things in syria than assad. There are worse things in syria than assad. If you knock off assad you a power vacuum. Who fils that vacuum . Its not the u. S. Hch backed rebels. Its almost certainly isis and other extremist groups that sweep a power vacuum. Who fils that in and establish base. And this time take over the military apparatus that assad leaves behind. Is that what you want . How do you prevent that from happening . So you can see this is a much more complicated picture unless youre willing to put in hundreds of thousands of u. S. Ground troops. There is no quick and easily solution. Certainly not militarily to ending the syrian civil war. Host michael on the democratic line from new york. Caller good morning. I have a couple of good points as far as i heard the gentleman say that the strategy about not letting the enemy know or the adversary know what youre doing. K . Thats ok and all. But you have to plan this stuff out. And the way its going about, we have a president thats a kneejerk decisionmaker and that was mentioned in the election when he was thats ok and all. But you have to plan this stuff for office. The other candidate, hillary, she wasnt this knee jerk person that she had a plan. You needed a plan to go after Foreign Policy. And to control things like this. Now we have to put an Aircraft Carrier as a security measure. I think mr. Trump is making knee jerk decisions and its very important that we focus on this nuclear threat. Because all you have to do is go on line and google the information on nag sackie and like you said youre talking bout a 40 megaton bomb that is catastrophic. Guest so youre seeing a lot of concern about this. Even as relatively broad support in the washington establishment is real, there really is kind of an establishment mindset. Ben rhodes used to call it the blob. This is generally in favor of military action. We live in a town where people like to see president s take military action. Even though its generally favorable to this the concern is then what happens next. And the concern is the way the decision was made. How abruptly the president changed his mind. About what oncern this sets for the future. The president feels this worked is he going to do it again and will it involve nuclear. This is the answer about what this se thats happened over the last several decades. We have very Large Nuclear bombs. Gigantic. 20, 30, 50 times more than heir sheema. We also have Small Nuclear bombs and theres a group of people who are pushing the use of newer, smaller Nuclear Weapons so that we wont be delf deterred from using them. For example, we have a bomb that could have been dropped on that airfield, not 59 cruise missiles. One cruise missile. That could have taken out the air field. There would be no craters except one that would just eliminate that airfield but it would be relatively contained. Its a very neat kind of solution, very dramatic kind of solution. And you see people proposing things like that. My fear is that that kind of proposals bubbles up maybe bannon, captures s like that. The attention of the president and he does something that we will regret for decades to come. Thank you for joining bannon, the us this morning. Guest thank you. Host coming up, author and Ronald Reagan biographer to discuss his latest book which examines president reagans political ascendancy after losing the republican nomination for president in 1976. Then later on Migration Policy Institute randy will be here to talk about the sharp drop in Border Apprehensions at the u. S. Mexico border and the effects of the trump administrations immigration policies so far. Well be right back