Transcripts For CSPAN Soner Cagaptay Discusses The New Sultan 20170418

Good afternoon and welcome to the washington institute. I am the executive director. Im delighted to welcome all of you to this special event. Before i begin, if i can please ask everyone to take your iphones or samsungs or whatever and turn them on silent because we are broadcasting ve on cspan1. Please watch your language, speaking clear towns so people tones so people around the world can hear us. You are free to tweak as much as you like. Todaysager to get discussion out far and wide. It is not often that one can time the publication of a new propit for viciously iously to an international event. It is not often that one can time a referendum to a faraway country perfectly with the release of a new book. We have today this confluence of events. Turkey the referendum in. Although the results and process were provocative and remain controversial and subject to great debate, and im sure we will hear more about that, the result seems to be to elevate the existing president of turkey one more elevated position that one might be able to call the new sultan. Therisingly enough, that is title of this new book by the director of the washington department. Turkish we know that turkey is a country of soner as the title new book suggests. The question is how long a crisis . Crisis abroad, at home, hitting worse, or Getting Better . Some clarityn be about the direction of turkish leadership. Talk about these questions i am theghted to invite to letter my colleague soner cagaptay. We have an outstanding array of turkish expertise on the panel, and as i look around the audience, a remarkable array of turkish parties within these four walls expertise within these four walls. I am delighted to welcome the founding erector of the middle east Institutes Center for turkish studies and adjunct professor at George Washington university. Then we will turn to a Public Policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson centers middle east program, veteran journalist, 15 years a turkish correspondent. We are delighted to have this panel, which brings such indepth knowledge of the current political situation and the likely direction of politics of turkey, and special interest to this audience, the director of the u. S. Turkish relationship in this new era. We have already seen the first sign of the direction of the relationship with President Trumps outreach to the newly reempowered president erdogan yesterday. The oing to call to podium i colleague soner. He is the author of several books on turkish domestic and Foreign Policy. I think one of soners greatest claims to fame is that there is a generation of American Foreign Service Officers who have gone on to serve america abroad in turkey who have passed through soners tender mercies as an instructor. I think we are all better served for that. Americas representatives in turkey have had the benefit of soners insight and wisdom. That is one of the things we try to do here at the institute, not just opine in books and television, but to do what we can to improve the quality of American Foreignpolicy by teaching american diplomats feared i am delighted to have soner. The podium is yours. Soner thank you. I am pleased to see so many of my friends and colleagues around town. It is a great day for me. I want to thank the rest of the panelists. They are two of the topnotch experts in town on turkish politics. There was an excellent oped in the New York Times this morning. She is a frequent commentator on various issues. I am pleased both are with me today. Thankingto start by for timing thean referendum to overlap the launch of my book. I could not have done it without them. This is obviously a critical time in turkish history. I want to tell you first about my book, the new sultan. I decided to write it in june. Originally, it was decided i would write it over a year, and publish it in the summer. As i was writing the book, my editor reached out to me and asked me to pull up the deadline. I wrote it between august and christmas and december, about four months. Andas edited and copyedited designed and printed in the last three months. There you go. Very proud of the book. I want to thank a number of people to whom i owe gratitude for getting this work together. First of all, my boss rob sutcliffe. Thank you, rob. This institute in my colleagues. This is a great place to work. It is one of the best places to work and probably the best celestial incubator. I have enjoyed my tenure here. I feel lucky to be surrounded by so many smart people and my colleagues as well as our research assistance. I have been blessed in the last decade and a half by an Impressive Group of interns and research assistants, some of whom are in his room. I seek meredith and jim. Would you get up for a second . I think you deserve a round of the posterior [applause] applause. Of [applause] we went through every sentence together. I would tell her sentence, and she would finish it. I cannot have done this without you. This book toted the loving memory of my mother. I was born into a workingclass family in turkey and went to yale for my phd. I want to turn to my book, why i wrote it and what it is about. I will go to my colleagues, and we will hopefully have a good discussion. I followed turkish policas a student for nearly two decades. In the last 15 years, i have been at the institute writing on turkey. You will find traces of our discussion in this book. In many ways, it follows my previous book, the rise of turkey. This was done by looking at turkeys Economic Growth under president erdogan and his justice and development party. Turkey has witnessed tremendous Economic Growth in the last decade, and after having been transformed economically, his task was to transform turkey politically. I think he wants to make turkey a great power. I said the path to that goes through becoming an advanced economy. Become an advanced economy and it has to become a hub for google. It has to become an open society and for democracy. The hope was to get to that advanced economy, the credit society, a new liberal order that would provide freedom for the two halves of turkey, which is freedom of religion and freedom from religion for the secular half. This new constitution would have to provide for broad liberties for all citizens. I concluded that relieved of its perennial secular religious tensions and the burden of the kurdish problem, turkey would of aand avoid the trap middle income economy and become a great power. I dont think erdogan read my book. I wrote this one, the crisis of turkey. Let me tell you what i think the crisis is. It is the story of erdogans power consolidation. I argue in the conclusion that he has become as unassailable as was ataturk was. He is the most powerful turk. Half of turkey loves him, and the other half loaths him. That is the crisis in which turkey finds itself. Wants tohat erdogan shape turkey in his own image in a way that ataturk did. Model. Ollowing ataturk turkey as a of modern state and shaped it in his own image, including education policy, as a secular, western society. Erdogan wants to use the ataturk model, but he also wants to emulate and replace him. He does not share ataturks values, just methods. That is topdown social engineering. He wants to use state power to shape turkey in his own image. A country that would therefore rdogansn hee image islamic, conservative. Erdogan has a problem. Ataturk was a military general. Erdogan has a democratic mandate. He had one until this sunday. There is widespread consensus that the election process was not there. There is emerging consensus that there were irregularities. We dont know the scale of them. That is the problem. Erdogan as suggested to move forward. He has declared himself an executive style present. President. He has assessed a mandate in question for half of the country that does not support him. Alleviate thenot tension but exacerbates it. Turkey is split in the middle between proand anti erdogan camps. It is unlikely that he will be able to impose his vision on the entire Turkish Society. There are many experts on turkey in this room. I see many of my friends and former students from the state department. It is a very complicated country with him a launch of political, at the, religious, and social groups. In sundays referendum. A near majority is not a majority. We have a map of turkey. If we can pull it up a second. There you go. As you can see on the map, overwhelming number of turkish provinces along the coast and northwest representing an overwhelming percentage of turkeys gp voted against them. He lost his home city. That is where he started his political career. In 1994 he became mayor. That is where he provided good governance. It is why the turks decided to make them Prime Minister later on. He has lost that. He has lost support in key cities of the country, and as well as losing the kurdish areas, he has lost istanbul, including his own neighborhood. I argue in my book that turkey is simply too large demographically, too big economically, and too complicated politically for one person to control it in its entirety. Despite his efforts to create a ,rony class of capitalists controlling a large part of turkeys economic wealth, it is too liberal, democratic and secular with european values. Let me look at trajectories that are highlighted in my book. I see three trajectories moving forward. I will include looking at postreferendum Foreign Policy which merits discussion as well. The first trajectory is the current state of affairs, crisis. A deeply polarized society in which half of the country, the conservative wing, islamist, nationalist, three groups believe turkey is heaven. The other half is a loose coalition of opposition, socialists, leftist, democrats, liberal muslims who believe turkey is hell. This is the best case Going Forward, a permanent state of crisis turkey is stuck under. So long as turkey is generally democratic, he cannot continue to govern the way he wants. There is a chance you might become more autocratic Going Forward. There is a chance he might even end democracy going for. That is the second trajectory. The third is societal polarization coupled with attacks from the right, far right by isis and far left by ppk. Argue could even catapult turkey into an unfortunate and unwanted civil conflict. I want to turn and look at erdogans Foreign Policy challenges. I spend a lot of time in the book talking about how russia is the nemesis that keeps coming despite the fact that the russians are friendly toward erdogan. They are deploying troops and setting up a base. Policy also works withpg, but only where there is isis. Regime. The assad russia is in syria to hurt turkey. Erdogan isean coming to the was above the western world . He is not. We saw this in the runup to the referendum. That is going to continue. That has a lot to do with his next steps. He has become an executive style present. There are elections coming up. He has to win those elections for the parliament in his party. Voters of the nationalist action party, which is a smaller faction in the turkish parliament, about 10 , voted for erdogan indy referendum. Some of them voted against him. It is splitting. The split is happening where voters in central and northeastern anatolia are slipping for erdogan. Voters in the coastal provinces are slipping against erdogan. Apkseans he can solidify popularity. This is an ultranationalist party. Mhps supportat strengthens apk. When that happens, apk has a super majority in the parliament. I think that is his goal Going Forward. That means ultranationalist on foreignpolicy issues. I anticipate major problems in ties with europe. He has suggested bringing back capital punishment. That would mean turkey is kicked out of the council of europe. Turkish citizens will not have access to that, and that changes the political dynamics of the country. He controls the courts. I anticipate a hard nationalist foreignpolicy line toward u. S. Cooperation with ypg. That is in line with his hardline policy on the kurds in general to make sure that mhp ers who have fled for flipped for him become reliable apk voters. That is enough doom and gloom. I dont want to tell you all about the fourth trajectory. I will you to buy the book. He has made turkey wealthy. This is a middleclass society. That is where he deserves credit. Turkey has grown. The citizens look better off than they did before. Erdogan came to power, mortality rate in infant mortality rate in turkey was comparable to prewar syria. Growth hast this grown the middleclass space, and theyre making middleclass demands. It is the wealthy voters that have voted against him in the referendum. I dont want to get carried away with the case for liberal turkey because the opposition that is against erdogan is divided. Pro as large as the erdogan camp. It includes seculars and conservatives, center right, and centerleft. Sometimes the gap between them is as wide as the gap between them and erdogan. The opposition lacks a charismatic leader. Conservative islamists have their own ataturk. The real ataturk is dead. That is the challenge for the other half of turkey. Until the day that a man or woman emerges that could make the case for a liberal turkey that would have a constitution that would provide freedom of religion and freedom from religion simultaneously, that would provide broad liberties for all, individual liberties including the kurds, until that moment comes, irene deeply worried about turkeys future. While liberal turkey remains a distant dream, it is possible given the Economic Transformation turkey has gone on under erdogan. I think it is next to him that i will write my next book. [applause] good afternoon, everyone. , congratulations. He makes us look lazy. My boss loves you. Aside from that, i really enjoyed reading your book. When i picked up the book, the first thing that came to my mind was, which sultan . After the this point, referendum, we can live with sue lemond amended since, who was magnificent, who was a reformer. This book does a great job of opening a window into erdogans psyche and through telling his personal narratives, a narrative of victimhood, which resonates very well among his constituency and beyond. It is showing us the interaction between the founding ideology and the reactions to it. That is why i enjoyed reading the chapters on kurdish nationalism and islamism. I think turkey lives in a postcapitalist and postislamist era. Endwould expect this era to with liberal values. S a radical authoritarian ideology. Really embracing liberal values. The opposite is happening. Book,er mentions, in the there is a growing middle class in turkey. They are demanding middleclass values. This is striking because at a time when there is a growing middle class in turkey, they are not really demanding middleclass values. Instead there is a growing authoritarianism. I think there is something inherently authoritarian in turkish political culture. Some might blame me for being an essentialist. That liesthat is at the heart of the issue here. I believe the origin of turkeys political culture is the loss of the statist ideology. The state occupies a particular place in the turkish psyche. Rebuilding society. Everything has been done through state. Even the bourgeois was created by the state itself. That is why we have a middleclass, a businessclass that is not really standing up against erdogans policies in the 21st century. Many are aligning with the government. Bourgeoisie from the 19th century, the rebuilding of the booth was he by the state itself bourgeoisie was by the state itself. I think that explains the state of turkish democracy at the moment. The people who are supporting erdogan. Going back to the islam versus secular debate, i think the people who voted on sunday in favor of the referendum, the 50 were not voting for it for islamism. Those opposed to it were not entirely camelist either. The 50 that voted yes on sunday, they do not mind authoritarianism. Course, this is a very dark picture. Where do we go from here . Aboutbit optimistic sundays results. The resultant sunday gives me hope. Electro politics will play a role. We do not know what his strategy will be Going Forward. I believe despite his victory he has lost ground within his own constituency. He lost all major cities, including istanbul. He launched his political career interest. He has not lost political career in istanbul. That fact is very telling. Base, i dontrban think they are 100 happy with his authoritarian tendencies. In the runup to the referendum, he played to the nationalists. His main strategy was galvanizing the nationalist vote. I think that strategy did not pay off. He could not mobilize the nationalist space as much as he wanted to. Votesd, he increased his in the kurdish region compared to november elections. Which is surprising. Right now it is very blue. It is difficult very fluid. It is difficult to be sure about the numbers. We are hearing hundreds of thousands of people, the ruling party, they increased their boats around 400,000, which is almost 1 . Did a lot ofan that. Speech, the one on the day of the referendum, he said we increased our votes in the kurdish region. If he really wants to return to favor, i think that is good news. Instead of aligning with the nationalists, he may have to recalibrate his strategy and work with the kurds. That could mean, and i know my friends and colleagues here may disagree with me, he might go back to the negotiations, resume the peace talks with the kurds. Play instead of aligning with the nationalists, aligning with the kurds, that would be good news domestically. The turkish economy has been hit hard by terrorist attacks. I think the economic downturn is going to impact is proper popularity as well. That would make some room to maneuver in syria. That would remove some of the tension in the turkishu. S. Relations. I would like to be optimistic. On the other hand, knowing he is up yesterday, there was a panel, one of my colleagues mentioned that we have always known him as a pragmatic leader. Long,eeded power for so he hasecome the state himself. That was the point i was trying to make, ideologies captured him. Now he is not the pragmatic leader that we always thought he was. Instead, he will be more ideological, have those reflexes which might prevent him working with the kurdish nationalists. So it is difficult to make predictions when it comes to turkey. It might be easier now that we. Ave a president ial system when it comes to its what his nextay move is going to be. 1 , same margin, gives me hope. I would like to end there. Thank you. [applause] i think i am too short. Trust me you are not. [laughter] think you very much for hosting me. I would like to return the compliment. I have been following you for around 20 years. [laughter] she was 10 years old. [laughter] thank you. Here is what i would like to say about your book. If i were a journalist and my editor told me to cover that i never set foot in turkey before, did not know what was going on, this would be a godsend. This is great. It brings you up to speed, it is , it is aritten fantastic bk. Ve timely obviously, rses Critical Issues in turkey, and above all, the issue of polarization, which of course is a huge challenge for Turkish Society. Everything that needed to be said has been said already, but i would like to add a few of my thoughts. In terms of yesterdays result, i think that it was and turkish, this was have it. Probably the least bad result we could have had, given that we assumed our to one would win this referendum. Muchajority he has is not of the majority. In turnt it means that he cant bask in the glory of this huge popular mandate that he was handed by the adoring turkish people. On the other hand, he has the responsibility of power. He did win and now he has this they be in his lap. Wearable things go from here . This doesnt kick in until november 3, 2019, technically. Between now and then, what will happen i am sure it weighs he loston his mind istanbul, which suggests that his Grassroots Organization were not working hard. I think thats as soon as he gets invited to lead the party he will set about doing a own shake up within his party. In doing so, probably generating resh batch of disgruntled adding to this big pile that already exists. To work thating well for him necessarily. Depending on where those disgruntled does are channeled, whether they can coalesce around a leader. The mhp leader leaps to mind. It is too early to say. I think its probably too wildly optimistic to expect the forces aligned against him to unite. We are looking at a person who goes berserk when she sees the kurdish flag raised. A very difficult. Heres the thing. For the First Time Since the 1980 coup, the legitimacy of turkish democracy globally has not been questioned in this way. Its a big change. The way this referendum has been Friendly International president press is about fraud, irregularities. The osc reports god knows ive followed a lot of osc press conferences when i was living in armenia. Bad. Elections were really yet whats they said yesterday, i was taken aback. I have never heard them sound this harsh before. Imagining the president are to the president feels grateful to trump, im puzzled why President Trump would give him that, being that he knows of desperate he was for that stamp of legitimacy. You would have thought that the United States would have leveraged that. So what happens next . Thin wethe majority is cant talk about stable situations. My colleagues described why this means he will continue to instrumental eyes Foreign Policy, which is ill for the u. S. , turkish relationship, and the u. S. The relationship. It also means that to deflect attention away from always big question marks about the legitimacy of the election, why he lost istanbul, he may embark on some crazy adventures. He may decide that its time tax lobby out in northern syria. Kurdistan. Into iraqi we simply dont know. Really, despite all the adversity, with all my colleagues, the most articulate journalist who could have put mostrd the case effectively against this thousands jail of kurdish politicians and jail, the fact that the government hogged the airwaves, despite adversity in short that we should have this result, is extraordinary and points to the strength of civil society. Turkishso it shows that society is maturing. In the old days people would sit back, fold their arms, and say, the army will come to the rescue. Thats not a given anymore. It falls upon individuals to fight the fight. Thats good news. This is by no means over. Turkish democracy remains very much a work in progress. To some extent, the arab springs was triggered by turkey by our to 1 erdogan challenging the army. Then came full circle, now he is more like them. Then you have this results with people pushing back. Think people will contue to watch turkey. Im proud of my country and im proud of this book. Thank you. Thank you so much. [applause] excellent. Three fascinating and insightful presentations, which gives us a lot to talk about. I can pick up really with an intriguing comment that you made in your remark and ask you all about the direction of u. S. Turkish relations. Do have this outreach from President Trump ogan to president erdogan, President Trump to president erdogan, do expect turkey to be a more complete partner with the United States, and what the white house is trying to do in syria and iraq . Or do you expect more maverick as we gofrom erdogan ahead . The mefford might be President Trump. Im under the impression that he might not have consulted the state department or an ambassador before he decided to make that phone call. The President Trump perhaps act on impulse, that is what just happened. I do not know. The case remains, for as long as the United States top priority is to defeat isis in syria particularly, the tensions will remain. The premier partner of choice to. O that remains the ypg yesterday we heard the fourth phone call. President erdogan railing against countries that work with terrorists. That will main a point of discussion. I think the whole case is something we all need to watch. I find it very interesting that former mayor giuliani is now in the mix. Lobbying a guess on turkeys behalf. He may dispute the word lobbying. Hit can you give two sentences about what this is . The case has to do with this turkish iranian gold trader who was basically busting u. S. Purchasingn iran by gold with rain and money, then selling the gold and money back. Roughly thats how it works. He sold to iran, got busted, and is sitting in a jail in new york somewhere. Most recently, the deputy general manager of one of largest stateowned banks was arrested in new york in connection with this case. President erdogan has raised this case several times. Present weve heard he did so with president obama, trump, secretary tillerson. He would have to ask him why. But of course, member that this in thisn implicated huge Corruption Case that erupted in november the 23rd 13fecember december. The president and his family were linked to allegations of corruption. His rock washington turkish. Ourts a man arrested in connection with the case was freed, but then got arrested in this country. Thank you. U. S. Turkish relations in the new era. Much will to bonds , first one isn pyd u. S. Connections. The second one of course is the extradition. Elected, thes turkish progovernment media was quite happy thinking that now this would be a reset to turkeyu. S. Relations. Under the obama administration, he wanted to work with it was obvious that they would not. Ntervene in the Legal Process they were hopeful that things would be different. I think thats what lies at the heart of what turkeyu. S. Relations will look like Going Forward. The first question is what is going to happen to u. S. P. A. D. Corporation and how will that affect relations. It depends on how turkey decides to deal with the kurdish question. Movessident erdogan forward with the kurdish Peace Process he might have a more pragmatic approach in syria. Back help. On the extradition will its difficult. Turkey has been trying to make. His case first is the Legal Process. The was court has to put aside decide, that will take years. A problem will remain in turkey turkeyu. S. Relations. Thank you. Im surrounded by two of the smartest people in town so i do not have much to add. Thate i do, realize dedicating my book to my mother overly emotional because i wanted to see who would inherit twomile gratitude for help with the book. The the years of have privilege of working with an Amazing Group of researchers. Many people and through help. Bring them fruits and yogurt in the morning. When i need a paper i going to ask them. Tyler, thank you so much. He helped me write my previous book. One of the things i like more than writing is teaching. Thats not true, i like yoga more. [applause] [laughter] over the years of acquired myeral students, until former students are in the room, they both review the books. Thank you all of you, i appreciated. My thanks go to a whole bunch of other people. Im grateful to all of you. I want to turn to your question in u. S. Turkish relations. I think this is now a subset, turkish Foreign Policy especially regarding what is a subset of domestic president erdogan pullout domestic political agenda. I will go to the depths of whites linked to Foreign Policy. Hes gone after various groups, demonizing, brutalizing them physically, cracking down on lot rallies, locking them up, shutting them up in the media. Starting in the last decade, i story i look in my book with secularists and the military, the kurds were added to the list. It went on and on. You have these groups demonized by erdogan, physically brutalized by the police, locked up in jail. The media. N the makeup now half of turkey. Thats what we saw on sunday. We cant continue to demonize further groups. His policy think of going after going up the internal enemies has run his first. Now he has external enemies. Fuel instrument allies Foreign Policy even further. Theres little to muster cost of bashing the netherlands for germany. Of gettingme benefit mic voters to support his party. I think we will see the face, regarding the kurdish issue, u. S. Cooperation with ypg and the kurdish Peace Process as well. He will be unfriendly on three counts. That will harm his relationship with the United States. At this stage it is almost a given that washington is goi mainly ypg support with ypg. Things might change. Turkey delivers to the table magically 12,000 welltrained reliable troops, i think washington would love to do rocket with turkey. Its not happening. In the next year it will be increasing i think that puts u. S. And turkey on a collision part course. Want another comment on the election outcome. Turkey has had this is not something i foresaw when i wrote the book, the idea that erdogan democratic mandate would one day be questioned he has one of something that came out with the book is that the election that took place on sunday were not only not fair but increasingly the size of irregularities drove it down, whether these elections for free and fair. If thats not the case of be ashamed. Turkey has had free and fair since 1950. Policy withs. Turkey on the mark for that Going Forward. Turkey is not a country that used to having unfair elections. It would grudgingly gives our seal of approval to one more for unfair election. Andections are unfair unfree, theyre not free and fair, that doesnt happen. Historians, political scientists in the room, please help me. Its a crucial time in that sense. Very good. Thank you all very much. Turkish in the room, those who lack turkish wisdom can help get some from our panel. Questions from the audience. Analyst on the map the. Otes are less than 24 million its a just low Voter Participation rate. I think that is a mistake. Turkey has 6 million registered voters, there were one million ballots that were not validated. The 48 million point 5 the 40. 5 million ballots that were counted. Million votes. 7 the opposition is going to question 37 of ballots to be recounted. President Erdogan Erdogan said i became president. On the far right. Speaking about Foreign Policy, how do you see the relationship between the soap ringleader and the Supreme Leader into her run t ehran . There seems to be competition. Theres always been competition for centuries between turkey and iran. They were on the opposing fronts in syria, yet they kept working. Ogether may be pursuing a pragmatic approach. I dont expect that to change. Iran is dependent on iranian energy. How think, the matter agements isyria would have failed. I dont think that it will come to a breaking point in turkey iranian relations. That said and i agree completely that turkey has been effective even before erdogan and compartmentalizing their relationship, which is complex increasing do you hear and much more sunni secretary and tone in erdogans rhetoric which bit ofing quite a annoyance in tehran which is. Een has been expressed a lot will be determined by positions of the Trump Administration taken on iran, whether it decides to be much more aggressive them the obama administration, and whether resetting its relationship with the United States by fighting with it. Relations with the Supreme Leader intel ron tehran. Let me ask about jerusalem. There has been this pragmatic trade relationship that has been sustained even while the politics has been rather sour between them. How do you think this relationship will evolve in the new era . To take gone its also another compartmentalize relationship for the economic part will grow. Thats driven by necessity. Economy,s a growing with the exception of korea its the only one that has no nuclear, natural gas, or oil. Its dependent on energy imports. Itsget against recorders of gas and oil from russia and iran. February the russians are undermining him. Others come terminal, iranians are not are extremely unhappy with turkish policy in syria. Analysts are suggesting thats a warning sign Going Forward. What that rivalry with iran want to buyesnt gas and oil for them Going Forward. He wants to buy he is going fromy kurdish Oil Kurdistan and israeli gas. I think that is his ultimate goal. He has an interest in there theres a lot of gas turkey the closest large market the political to well to do such a deal. Politically, their relationship will always be undermined, turkish things with hamas. On, to what extent israelis are able to tolerate a strong economic relationship with turkey, from which they also benefit. Turkish ties who hamas as well. Very good, thank you. Yes. You seem to be sitting in the sending orders of optimism. [laughter] for all three of you but especially the first two, im curious what you see as the basis for optimism, given that you have consolidated power now and the presidency, a fractured and weak opposition, a significant crackdown on journalists and civil society. What are the remaining letters within the country will enable people to take . Elector politics. What we saw on sunday institutional changes will kick in until 2019. Elections are increasingly unfair. Elections still do matter. Thats why we have seen i do not know if you are following i remember seeing pictures of everyone and his close advisers looking quite sad. Note that they have taken stronghold like his temple. Theres recalibration of strategy and also the status goal is not sustainable. Their support he has been receiving. That loose coalition that he has a fracture it. Hehas to make sure that carries at this out, that you dont have bombs exploding in major cities. Cas will hurt him elect horribly. Thats why i think he has to change courts. We have seen that before. Is very pragmatic. My short answer is, elector i amics is the reason why up to lightly more up to what optimistic. I agree with electoral the electoral point. I would give number snippets for my book because it wanted by it. [laughter] i argue in my book, one of the reasons is we cant ship societies anymore like they did in turkey. That is why president erdogan has to give up. Work. L not you cannot ship a society top down in your own image as a leader, especially if that society is 97 literacy literate. Literacy is increasing at percent every year. We become the first large muslim attainy society to universal literacy. In a society completely literate, 80 urban, largely middleclass, it will be so hard for this guy to shape the whole country in his own image. Not sustainable. He can cry try but it wont work. Hopefully it will be democratic. That they will oppose him that way, that will bounce it out. Despite optimism the fact that erdogan controls a large part of the media people say 90 , it is probably more theres a media blackout in ther options referendum. Resources devoted to the propresident Erdogan Campaign far outweigh resources to the other option. He only got 51 . Despite all that, if that maybe not even that. That tells me that you have to haveaith in turkey, it is a great countr yohave millions and millions of people despite the fact that information and their access to equal campaigning was limited, he still cannot voted in march numbers. Its a ground for optimism. I am betting on turkeys diversity. That it is demographically too large, politically to complicated for one person to shape in their own image, that time has passed. I would like to think that they have certain model that erdogan president erdogan is emulating. Its not sustainable. I faith in electoral politics Going Forward. The question is whether we have a center right option. Turkey is mainly a rightwing country. Some parties do 30 of the votes. Its hard for me to see a single Leftwing Party get amounts it will have to come from the center right. , thehappens to mhp National Faction that we talked mhps voterr the base is basically into parts of turkey. One is coastal and urban turkey. In north east and central turkey, the parties electorate completely, or maybe for the most part many places of voted against them. Whether will go next is. Mportant president ergans is not an islamist party. The question is whether you have a center right option which can theresople together this project trajectory for turkey Going Forward. Thats my case for the turkish do want to come in on this . Very good. In the front. Thank you. I will definitely buy and read the book. He robbed me of my main question i was going to ask about israel. Ill ask my backup. Turkey is not negotiating with russia. I was wondering if this is a tactic to get a better nato system, what do you think . You can put this in a more general context about where you think the future of turkishnato relations will go in this new era. Its hard to answer that question. Without knowing what the future of nato itself is. Setting that aside, these negotiations with russia on the think theres posturing involved. Turkey is keeping its options open. The United States was aligning with interests in syria in particular. We wouldnt be hearing so much about the as 400s anymore. Just looking at the situation on the ground in syria that russias behavior, despite this legend love fest between president erdogan and put in after president erdogan apologized to him, what you are seeing on the ground is russia acting against turkish interests, when turkey tries to make a move on russia sent with regime forces. Some people say they stopped uniforms. In any case russian moving to protect them cover during the sale of the western flick. Not allowing turkey to really act the way it would like to inside syria. They want to go after turkey the any sign ofshow shifting back to regime change, especially when you saw the enthusiasm displayed by president erdogan, when the. Ruise missiles hit the russian response to that as well. Then we have this siness of to israel, whatever you like to call it. Cant remember its latest game. The pressure on turkey to move against it live is right isre on the turkish idlib right there on the turkish border. Theres tension on for ashtray. Trade. Turkey was eagerly expecting the russians to call back to turkey. Russia canceled them. There is tension on that front. This indicates that contrary to what we have been seeing in the progovernment media, neither side trusted each other. Putin doesnt trust erdogan. Anyone was quite optimistic. He thought he could change calculations in syria which obviously couldnt. I dont think it is as smooth as projected by government circles in turkey. Russia, president erdogan thinks he is a friend in moscow. He is wrong. Big mistake. The way the shakes of the middle east the main concern among syria, everything else, is the success of political islam, of sunni political islam, which is one reason why i think he is friendly with egypt. Its not as clear about his stance in libya. Whether you first is picking secular politics, an entity doesnt matter what their nature politicale brotherhood alternative. For him his success in turkey is the success of a political response in rsi and abroad in the middle east. Unacceptable. He was everything he can to undermine him. Isported opposition which linked with ypg and the pkk. He will have stronger ties with them Going Forward because that is a chip for putin against erdogan and outside, which is also what there is no regression they are surrounded by , assad version, and turkey. If you are there with the us regime you are fighting turkey. Thats a their position. Ultimate goal,s which is why i think he will be mistaken to think that putin is a friend Going Forward. As another reason for why he is adversarial to everyones experiment in turkey. 20 russia is 20 muslim. The majority of russian muslims like turks. They were expelled by the sars. What happens in turkey resonates strongly inside russia then what happens it was in egypt or model is his goal, i dont see have it will work. Think russia will be the main adversary as the polarization areinues and scenarios legitimate book include of course the russians are and have tried to undermine turkeys civility. Very good. Tha you andongratulations , i enjoy the panel. There is something you didnt mention, or i didnt pick up for many of you. Maybe its because you consider the issue not relevant to the outcome of the referendum. Ill give opportunity to help me get better educated. It is what happened in the coup, the third two. Whatever you want to call it, whatever happened, what has been the impact of that since that was all we were reading about what turkey, was the postcoup roundup. Beenhas the consequences on this referendum, and the situation with turkey Going Forward . It almost sounds like the two , since noneeparate of you broke the coup into your discussions as to where things are going today. Think the failed coup almost handed him the victory that he captured on sunday. Im sorry forgot to mention that. It played a huge role because once again, that victimhood merit narrative that he talks about his book once again that was in play. Because of that failed coup he could be able to recreate the narrative. Of enemieshe victim not just up there but also within the state. I think it an important role. Supporters, the number in the runup to the referendum, listening to scholars in turkey who are talking about whether he alienated thousands of people , lots of failed coup votes. On sunday that is. Think i can answer a question, the question comes how much how much electoral support the israelis had. Were they a real political block . What we hear is the whole debate going on critical of the mostlyent they are within the grand movement. Jail,f them, those not in managed to flee the country. Therest just will not see difference. The share the same base, similar ideologies. Thats why they did not translate into loss of votes for erdogan on sunday. Anything else on the impact of the coup . I dont think any of us knows what happened. Who actually participated, who planned it. That remains a big history. A significant number of doing tests were involved. This was a coalition between them and various other officers in the armory. We dont know because the government has said we dont know. The parliamentary inquiry that was supposed to be conducted on this has been very opaque. Media has been muzzled and is unable to do its job. Know what ist going on inside the army itself as a result of this coup. I think that is the more important question, what impact has this had on the army, and what does this portend for its future, in terms of the ability to intervene again . And, what its role will be overall and turkish political most importantly, who the army people arend of joining the army, what is the new ideology . There are suggestions that its different to the kamalas army of yours. It is much more conservative, muchious, new inductees moaned the role of erdogan this is just speculation. You. , thank yes, sir. I have a couple quick questions. We heard about resuming this process. , do youat happened think its an opportunity for resuming the Peace Process with the htp . , they wereestion shortened to get a profile 18 article to be change of the constitution. It got support from mhp. Whats the difference between dish islamic rule, and the ,amalas to get to that deal the draft of the constitution . When we just take two questions. All right. Thank you. For nonturkish aficionados, this was the pete Peace Process between the government and kurds in the south. Second question on the relationship between the islamists and the hard cite nationalist secularists, what you was struck. The second one. Heresome flimsy contrarian , first of all we need to be thinkabout which kurds to president erdogan would be talking to if indeed he feels this new magna minute t or is compelled because he is a little choice. Hes artie talking about the Death Penalty, the fact that he is lashing out within the ypg, just hours practically of the result being announced, i dont think that suggests that he is ready to resume peace talks. Thats how i probably find it. , think its bad news especially between now and the this system kicks in and he has new parliamentary elections were he hopes to draw the htp and mhp. That some people have an absolute majority in parliament. The chp will end up looking pretty much like, i guess, the opposition does in russia. I dont think hes ready on the contrary i was sitting in creating his is own kurdish moment club torah. This will be a mix of pious kurds. We know that resulted for him and the selection. They might explain a part of the bond, though somewhat argue that a like a rarity irregularities, and the fact that the kurds were prevented from campaigning effectively and monitoring effectively as well, he will create all these cities and towns that would throughpeople patronage, create some kind of a vase for himself. Back tthink he will go the pkk or the htp on the schedule on completely erdogan agrees to do everything he tells them to do which again is not very likely, because if he were to do so he would lose all credibily th t kurdish people. His own followers among the kurdish people. See aikely to reconciliation there. I want to add one thing. When he talks about the Death Penalty, and think hes referring to you cant apply it retroactively. When hes talking about severing ties with europe, tells the osc to mind their own business . Thats not my point though. Thatint is you think just because he talked about Death Penalty, he cannot ssibly be talking about returning to the kurdish peace forces. What i am saying is that maybe thats not relevant because maybe he is not referring to upper challan spent to be dennis. When he talks about Death Penalty is. I made my point. I am more optimistic, especially if you look at the htp has lost ground. The kurds dont have many options. If you look at places, border , one town in particular is an htp stronghold, theyve been the only party there. The fact that in such a context where erdogan has been referring to this ultranationalist if he could capture those votes in those terms at the expense of the htp, but tells me the kurds also think they are the only dish acps village person who can broker a peace deal. Theres such demand. Thinking back about going back. Thats presuming that the election was free and fair in the southeast. What imnt thats saying. Else the results of the no,rendum, a simple yes or said it would be voting for him. Its apples and oranges. To be carefuld and we need much more information of what actually happened before we draw firm conclusions about voting. Atterns among the kurds i can also chime in, great discussion. Im enjoying it. [laughter] what happened is a mystery in the kurdish area. Turks love to vote, we know that. 85 turnout trout was much higher in areas for the. Eferendum failed, 90 weber expelled it is up 90. This pretty impressive for democracy. Was lower in areas in the national average. ,t was 80, in some provinces the only area where erdogan made significant gains. They do not explain games of 20 in some provinces. Overall air to ones vote compared to akp vote in the last election, or in the president ial election if you compare whichever one you take, mainly stagnated across the country and dropped in certain provinces. An instant bullet dropped little bit. Other places of truck across the board. Its a mystery. If there irregularities they will be there. This is my nonposter view of a secular this as observer of turkish politics. I would love to see if theres anything that would happen. Carry pkks decision to thatar to the citys caused a lot of unhappiness among ordinary kurds. The were very upset that pkk did that to them. In that sense, if you had a free and fair election, i still think you would see the htp vote go down. I agree with that. Plastic a couple more questions then we will bring this to a close. Im sorry, we will just run out of time on this. Congratulations to the panel. I wanted to go back to a. Cenario also his remark about erdogans strategy. Strategy hadd, his the effect of creating half the countrys enemies. Now that hes run on a domestic enemies, he has to turn towards foreign enemies. It also seems like he has nothing but foreign enemies. He handlesering how the situation in which he has no external friends. Forwhat that would mean three or four original scenarios. Ok. Think you very much and again, congratulations. Ask about, strangely enough, islam, which we have not heard all that much from any of you about the specifically religious islamic aspect of either erdogans Program Going voters, his appeal to what effect that has on Foreign Policy. Conclusion from what you have been saying is, after 15 years, erdogan and the akp have not managed to further islamized Turkish Society and politics. Is that the congressional correct conclusion . And what else can you say about what specific aspects of islamic issues might come up in the future . Implications of having no friends. Islam and turkey. Lastly just for the record, is this the last election erdogan wins . Or do you expect him to win again when he comes up for election in 2019 . We will market in the history books. [laughter] of that the last question on islam. Think he islamized society, but he hasnt even tried to islamized the state. Thats why especially if you look at ive always argued that turkish islam is different n the middle eastern islamism in other parts of the region. Think again it has something to do with that tradition that i talked about. , hek when he came to power became part of democracy and socialize culture. He didnt even tried to islamized state institutions. The is limited islamism in turkey for instance doesnt really make reference to causes that sharia. Thats really something about the turkishislamist psyche. Think theres no threat there. Thats why when we say the onesm is not aired islamism, but its authoritarian is him. His whole project has revolved around raising pious generations, turning the Turkish Society into a more religious society. He has managed that. But of course we need a political scientist to do more research on this phenomenon. The rise of religiosity. Maybe turkey is not an exception in that regard. Courseas erdogan of to a certain extent yes because change transforms the whole education system, transformed major dynamics in society. But when it comes to creating a sharia type states, i dont think he has done mh. Before he came to power he was likecal of institutions the director of foreign religious affairs, because he that the on it has been a tool to not only suppress , and he promoted getting rid of that institution. He came to power and now its a bigger democracy with a bigger budget. I think that points to his state instinct. He became a democrat in that regard. Think he does instrument allies informed instrument alize islam, especially where Police Cadets in training chant islamic slogans. Others do the same. When the coup was unfolding, he rallied people around religion. Making thethe imams call for jihad essentially. Lot of instrumental ization of islam more than his predecessors. I would point to the fact that groups like to put a new shirt, isis, have established Networks Inside turkey and seem to have recruited it with great ease. Thats something that obviously needs to be watched. Final were just before we conclude. Agree, if turkeys neighbors for luxembourg, the netherlands, and belgium, i would not be worried about islamization. Turkey has strong middleclass educated people connected to the world. [laughter] how about canada and spain . Thats not the case. Isis is a neighbor. It has been for a while. Next storyihadist that makes this dangerous for turkey and turks. Turkey could become a recruiting pool for jihadist ideology. Theres a chapter in my book i wont tell you more about it. You have to buy it. [laughter] i want to take the other question just before finishing, on foreign enemies. Becausethat polarization politics 112 ruin another round of elections, he will have to win the next election. Otherwise you will have to do with the french he will be a president and his parliament will promote another party. The system is not setup to function like that. It is setup set up to have majority controlled by the president and parliament. Or it will collapse. To get there he has to win elections. Hatever the elections are, foreign enemies this is only we Going Forward. Its easy to unify. Thats for the question about mhp agreements comes in. Theyre different parties but akps base and mhps base in certain areas overlaps significantly in turkey. Looking at the map, the areas of central and northeastern turkey, where support was strong, that is where the base was significantly more conservative than oth areas. That is why the deal work. This will be the biggest game Going Forward, consolidating the nationalist agenda with a strongman image, meaning problems with europe, problems with the United States, and in the shortterm significant problems on the kurdish account. Before he finished, i was extremely delighted to see some many friends and colleagues here today. Thank you all for coming. This is a great afternoon for me today. A real labor of love. Thank you for having dealt with my crazy work hours and it has been a wonderful project, so im happy to launch this book with you. Finally, i want to thank the buyer family for their work, their generosity makes my work happen, if they are out there watching me, hello. Thank you for coming. Otherwise we will be doing more events in the book. Great, thank you. Thank you very much for joining us today. [applause] mr. Satloff thank you, that was excellent. [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2017] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] yesterday President Trump in a previously scheduled call with a turkish president , erdogan, is reported to have offered congratulations on the reformation referendum. They really sustain a regarding the referendum vote in turkey, reading in part that the creeping authoritarianism in turkey continues, all that value