In prison. This is nearly one hour and a half. Good morning everyone and welcome to United States institute of peace. We are thrilled to offer this forth in our series of panels on russians and enzo. I would be remiss if i did note that this may be a very sad day. Reportedly Alexei Navalny was killed last night in russian prison. This obviously affects not only those who cared deeply about him, but also the name of our topic today. I just want to introduce the ceo of Radio Free Europe and the cofounder of american purpose magazine. Thank you. Good morning everybody. Its nice to see all of you and those joining virtually. I am the publisher and cofounder of american purpose. And now that twotime former president and ceo of Radio Free Europe, radio free liberty, and on the federal board overseeing u. S. International media. My very brief framing remarks. This marks 10 years, if i count correctly, the russian invasion and annexation of crimea. Two years since the fullscale russian invasion of ukraine. I dont have to tell you what a year, because we have this year, important elections in the world, in europe. In germany, in the fall, in three important states where the afd is surging. And, of course,s in the United States of america where so much is at stake and in play. And then, as you have just heard from our host reports today that Mister Navalny and i may put it this way in Vladimir Putins clutches is dead. Its easy to say, but i think its fair to say that we are at one of those large moments where there is a great deal of solidity and dynamism and uncertainty i think, more than at any time i can recall in my professional life. We have a great panel today, this forth in the series. In washington, i think we often scoff at the vision thing. We belittle it and we minimize it. But in my view, first comes vision and then comes strategy and tactics and tasks. But you have to have some sense. An aspiration of where you want to go in this life, individuals, nations as an international community. And maryam, that is what your panels about. It is your panel not predicting the future or or exaggerating our influence actually, but it is trying to assess probabilities of scenarios and where we do have influence because we do have a vision of a better russia. With a more decent, Accountable Government which will provide a better life for russians and certainly far more peace and security for ukrainians and for the entire region. I will say one last ring in my introduction, because you in encourage me to, in this theater and in this larger play at hand, Vladimir Putin seems to be on the hostagetaking spree. First was mr. Navalny. The other was vladimir karamurza. And now they are number of americans, we got out brittney griner, the basketball star in a swap for a russian arms dealer. Ok. But there are others. Notably paul wheeldon, the ex marine imprisoned since 2018 paul whelan. Evan gershkovich, the wall street journal reporter, he will mark one year in march. And my colleague, she went back to the Russian Federation last summer on a private trip to visit her frail and elderly mother, thinking that in this society where mothers are cherished, that she would be safe. But according to Vladimir Putin, others are not apparently so cherished and safe. There she said since, with multiple charges piling up. Please keep all of them in your thoughts and prayers, and if i may make this special plea to you, we are hoping will get the same designation that has been awarded to paul and evan. That is, the determination by the u. S. State department as wrongfully detained. It increases resources and increases the probability that she and others will come out in a prisoner swap. We want all of them out. An application of the fullest energy and all diplomatic resources. Its my view that the United States is doing a good job, but it is not the right and full job until people are home with their families, and they arent yet. Thank you for the domain make that special plea. This is a fantastic panel, the fourth in the series. Thanks to the u. S. Institute of peace, thanks to this u. S. Institute of current World Affairs, and really, thanks to greg feiffer. Greg pfeiffer is a journalist. He is a book author, an analyst. He has worked for radio europe for liberty. He leads the institute of current World Affairs. But there is a committee, a coalition. It always takes one person, i will say, to conceive of things and drive them and make them happen. So it is my pleasure to introduce to you, greg, who played that role and made this happen principally. He will introduce the distinguished panel. Thanks all of you for being here today. Greg. [applause] jeff, thank you so much. And also to sid, and everyone at american purpose of this truly shocking day. The kremlins killing of Alexei Navalny is meant to fan hopelessness amongst its critics and a sense of inevitability about the longevity of putins paranoid stalinist regime among russians at home. Our panelists will talk about that, i hope, today. But first, i want to say that we are very happy to have jeff g back here in person in washington after having been acting president of Radio Free Europe, in addition to all the important writing and discussions his book is putting on, he is still committed to Radio Free Europe and not the least, campaigning to release a hostage in a russian prison. And also, big thanks to the u. S. Institute of peace and to mary, to elizabeth june, heather, ambassador bill taylor. Thank you so much for putting on this series with us and posting us so well here. Also, thanks to everybody joining us online. This conversation is the most challenging of all of our series of four talks because of concerns very big unknowns, even though what comes after Vladimir Putin or putinism, if his regime is maintained by a successors, is already one of the biggest questions about russia for the past almost quartercentury since putins sweeping into power ended a decade of postsoviet western ideal reform. Looking to history is crucial. Putin is very much the product of traditional political russian pressure, having resurrected the kind of authoritarian regime that existed not only during 70 years of soviet rule, but also centuries of czarism. But the reasons for putins success and his longevity exist very much in the present day. Among them are some of the determinants of russian character and russian culture. The countrys vast geography, its terrible climate, its terrible winter. Things that reinforce the importance of the collective , rather than the individual, in the imagination of the society for which survival has always been challenging. So, what are the conditions that will help determine what comes next both inside russia and globally . Its crucial that we think about them now for our sake as well as for russias. What are the main challenges facing institutional reform, including decolonization, interpreting of history and identity, and the interests of russias many minorities . How can the United States and other western countries play constructive rules in the stem around, what Lessons Learned from the 1990s . I am absolutely delighted that we have some of the leading russian exile voices here to discuss these questions, and i think another way to describe them simply is leading global intellectuals. Sergei guriev, joining us online from paris, i think, is provost and professor of economics at Sciences Po Paris university. Later this year, he will be the next dean of London Business school. He previously ran the new Economic School in moscow. He has served as the chief economist of the European Bank for reconstruction and development, and he is coauthor of the book spin dictators, the changing face of tyranny in the 21st century. Which is an absolute must read. He is also a central hub of the russian intelligentsia in exile. Natalia arno, here with us in washington, is a wellknown advocate of democracy and human rights who is founder and president of the free russia foundation. A fantastic, Dynamic Organization that provides all kinds of help that is very crucial and nurturing to Civil Society actors, future leaders, and many other exiles persecuted by the russian and belarussian governments. Free russia is also a leading voice here in washington and generally to western policymakers, advocating effective russia and eurasia strategies. Joining us from berlin, i think he is in berlin where he is based, is mikhail zygar, a leading independent journalist who worked for newsweek russia before becoming Founding Editor in chief of the tv news channel dozhd. He is the author of the acclaimed all the kremlins men, and most recently, the excellent new book war and punishment, putin and president zelenskyys path to russias invasion of ukraine. Although the british version that i read had a different subtitle. Mikhail won the International PressFreedom Award in 2014, and he had a fabulous piece just yesterday in the New York Times about how the kremlin may feel that even completely sham elections are too much of a risk for putin. Also joining us here in washington is jorgan Andrews State Department fellow here at , a us ip. He was previously Deputy Assistant secretary of state in the bureau of international narcotics, where he oversaw Justice Sector assistance programs across europe and asia, hes also served on the National Security council and abroad, including in russia and kazakhstan. Here at the u. S. Institute of peace, jorgan has overseen an impressive big expert project considering the potential for future political change in russia. And we are honored to have have as moderator, miriam lansbury, Miriam Lanskoy senior , director for russia and eurasia at the National Endowment for democracy. She is a political analyst and an expert in democracy promotion and postovalov eurasia. She cowrote the chechen struggle, independence won and lost, with former chechen foreign minister. So our panelists will talk for about 50 minutes, followed by a q a with the audience. Here in the room, please raise your hand if you have a question during that time. For those joining on zoom, please type your questions into the q a box and we will read them to the panelists. And with that, we will hand over to you, miriam. Ok. Good morning, everyone. Its a difficult and sad day. We learned that most likely, navalny passed away, and i think correctly characterized as killed by this regime. And i think, although the lawyers representing him and his team are looking for confirmation and for facts before we can be absolutely certain, most likely, it probably is true and i think we do have to start with thinking about what this means for russia, for russias democratic movement, and for the future. Let me start by saying that, of course, i am very, very sad for navalny, for his family, and consider this a real tragedy for everybody that knew him. At the same time, even though i am very sad, i feel more deeply that it must do tomorrow, more than i have been doing yesterday. And that is how modern dom martyrdom works. It is the most powerful narrative in human history. I would like to point out to you that Pontius Pilate did not destroy christianity, hardly. And that many, many in russia today i suspect, are feeling the way i do, that the people who are in jail demand from us more on the path of defining russias future. So why dont i stop there. That is my first reaction. What i would suggest to our panelists is perhaps we start with going around and getting your reactions to just use, then on the second time around, we will get more into scenarios and questions about different paths of Russian Development in the future. Sergei, why dont we start with you. Thank you very much, miriam. The panel is about postputin russia. The future of russia. In the last conversation with alexei before hes going back to russia in january of 2021, we had this conversation with him in december of 2020, it is still on the youtube channel, of the tv channel that mikhail was at some point the funding chief. And also on my youtube channel. We talked exactly about these issues. This conversation is something that i really recommend to watch because the clearly communicates what alexei was standing for. I still dont know and i still hope that this tragic news is not confirmed, but i would just say that alexei had a very clear vision for russia. His post putin russia is and will be the vision of a european, democratic, peaceful country, inclusive. A civil nationstate, not an empire, a country where everybody would have an opportunity to prosper. And this is something that was very, very clear. I highly, highly recommend reading this transcript of this interview over watching this interview, its a very clear message which i certainly support. And i guess that is where i would like to end my introductory remarks. On this day, i just cant say, listen to what alexei has said. Also, watch his words in the film, navalny, where he is actually asked this question, what happens if they kill you . He says, if they kill me, they will kill me because they are afraid. Because they know we are strong. And you should continue doing more exactly because you know that we are stronger than them. So we should continue this fight. I will stop here. I guess later on we will have more specific questions to discuss. Moderator thank you. Mikhail . Panelists miriam, i think one of the most important questions for this morning is not about postputin close russia, but about postnavalnys russia and how the navalnys death can affect us, what influence it will give to russian society, to the russian state, to the russian you rocker see. There are two opposite versions. The first answer is that everything is going to change. Because for a lot of people in russia and also outside russia, navalny, for many years, has been the symbol of the future. He was, for many, a hero. Considered to be the future president of russia. A lot of people have lived with that knowledge, that he is the path, the person who has the vision. He has always been the most prominent visionary about russias postputin future. It was very clear and very straightforward. He has always been ready to make mistakes, if previously he said something wrong. Another answer that i should speak about as a pragmatic journalist, a pragmatic russia watcher who has seen a lot of changes, this answer would be that, nothing change. All emotions aside, but Alexei Navalny was imprisoned for so many years. He was not particularly visible by a majority of russians in the country. He was not the actor of life outside russia, so probably, the theory might have been that, actually, its going to be the same, nothing will change. But as a historian, i know that this answer is wrong. The usual answer, that hypothesis, that great leaders go and they dont leave a trace, or just that great newsmakers can disappear and nothing will happen, in navalnys case, this answer is clearly wrong. Because he is going to be, starting on this day, he is going to become much more than what he was. If we accept the fact that he is dead, that means that his story is fully written. And he has become the pure and genuine example of russian messiah. It sounds weird, i am sorry for those strange words, but in contemporary russian history, we have never had that example of a person who was so idealistic and who was so devoted to his cause, to his righteous cause, who could show us that ideal, moral example. That was one of the reasons for a lot of russians to become very cynical. We have been discussing the mortal disease of russia today for many years. Russians today are cynical. They do not believe in democracy, in freedom of speech, in fair elections. They think everything is propaganda. They think every politician is the same. So now, they have a chance to stop believing that. Now they have a chance to see that not everyone is equally cynical. Not everyone now there is a way for Many Russians to think twice. So i guess post navalnys russia will be very different from the way we lived yesterday. Sorry for my emotional words. Panelist natalia . Panelist 12 festival first of all, i would urge everybody not to talk about Alexei Navalny in the past tense. We still dont know what happened. Navalnys lawyers are enrolled to the prison colony. What the russian authorities did happened on friday. Very possible that the lawyers will be allowed to enter the prison on the on monday, and russian authorities, whatever they did, will have a lot of time to hide any crimes they did. Also, we shouldnt, if confirmed, we shouldnt say the kremlin the kremlin is pushing the narrative that navalny has died in prison, speaking about blood clots and things like that, which is very ridiculous. In that case, it would be clear that the kremlin regime and Vladimir Putin personally assassinated Alexei Navalny. I will never be able to talk, in any case, of him in the past tense. I cant do that. For me he is the most alive person. Alexei navalny is the russian Opposition Leader who developed this vision of the beautiful russia of the future. He is a hero. He is a symbol of russian resistance. A coverage of russian people. A courage of russian people. Here is dont die. He was motivated, as miriam said, to do more. I feel very outraged, angry. But i know that when me or anybody in my people or in our communities will exhausted, feel nervous breakdown, burnouts, whatever, we always remember people like boris nemtsov, neckandneck navalny like Alexei Navalny, and i just hope that all of us do a lot to change the situation inside russia, because we do need a postputin of as soon as possible. It is too murderous. Too atrocious. The beautiful russia of the future that Alexei Navalny believed in is really something we do need. It is very possible. We do deserve it. The world will be better. This may be but it is also what gives us motivation and courage. Alexei said it himself in the interview and in many other interviews, that if it ever happens, it means putin feels that him and people like him, it means the regime is not strong at all. If it is scared of people who are in jail very far north. And also we should think about the other political prisoners. They are not safe, of them. I am immediately thinking about vladimir karamurza, evan gershkovich, and many others. We cant sit still. We should act and act more and double our efforts. Thank you. Panelist thank you. Panelist where you very hard to add to what they said. But i would say that this solemn news today, if it turns out to be true, it is really a reminder of just, as has been said, how fearful, how insecure, how brittle an authoritarian regime is and becomes. It further demonstrates the moral and the political bankruptcy of putin in the system that he has created. It also reminds us that it is important to stay connected to our faith. That resumes like this who are this insecure, this weak, this fearful, already carry within themselves the seeds of their own destruction. And the analogy i like to use is a Pressure Cooker. Regimes like this in their growing insecurity feel the need to close off every little escape valve that lets pressure out of the that lets pressure out of the system. As they do that, the pressure builds and builds inside the Pressure Cooker. This leads them to be fearful that any release of pressure, however small, could cause the whole system to blow, that the lid would blow off the pot. This is my regimes like this tend to look very strong until they are not. It is a cliche. The Pressure Cooker looks stable until the lid blows. Part of the challenge here, since none of us can predict when or exactly how the lid will blow, we try to envision different ways change could come politically in a system like putins. It was my privilege a year ago to lead an exercise. We had close to 2000 very experienced russia hand from across a wide spectrum, some from Civil Society, academia, think tanks, and current and former government officials in the National Security and Foreign Policy realm. Probably hundreds of years of experience in the group working on russia. There strong recommendation was to not get sucked into specific scenarios of how political change might happen or who might succeed putin. There are endless rabbit holes. Instead they encouraged policymakers to think about the type of regime that would be produced if and when political change, is. We know political change will come, we dont know when. Putins lifespan will end whenever it ends. This group was emphatic we are not about regime change. Putting the u. S. Finger on the scale, trying to pick a winner in russias internal political dynamics is almost certainly counterproductive and not likely to succeed. There were lots of things that group felt we could be prepared for. They grouped the scenarios into three buckets. One was we will get a regime thats aggressive, not unlike the putin regime, perhaps even more so. Second is we will get a regime that either genuinely or falsely appears to be liberalizing. The third bucket is the chaos bucket, that there will be strife or a contestation of power inside russia for some period of time. There overwhelming recommendation was, just to summarize a lot of material, there overwhelming recommendation was dont be afraid of the chaos pocket. Thats times that sometimes things do need to follow part to build something new. They were very reluctant to get sucked into personalities and individuals and particular modes of transition to avoid some of the mistakes they felt were made in the 1990s. There is a lot more to unpack, but those are the three major pieces, and there are lots of other takeaways we would be happy to discuss further. From a perspective of people who follow russia closely here in washington, those are some of our thoughts. If todays news unfortunately turns out to be true, the kind of black swan event that could release a little pressure in the russian regime could very well be upon us, could still be years away. I look forward to todays discussion, and thank you, miriam and others, for allowing me to join you. Moderator you have given us an ideal way of segueing to the question of scenarios. I like very much how you phrase this, what the experts you have consulted with to write the paper, they seem to be of the opinion that you cant get to a positive scenario perhaps without chaos. Perhaps chaos is a step towards it. And maybe thats the question i would like to ask the others. We tend to Group Different kinds of scenarios as the present continues indefinitely. In my personal opinion, thats the least likely. We are in a historical pivot point where unexpected things are happening all the time and russia is changing very rapidly. There are many scenarios of destabilization, be it some kind of popular revolt, private armies, a technocratic coup. I would like to push, if i may, panelists to tell me how do you think about them . How should we think about potential destabilizing scenarios . What might be positive ones . Would you always consider them to be negative . In a situation where the present seems to be dragging russia further into totalitarianism, how do we think about the possibility of some kind of protest . Other kinds of possible scenarios in the future. Often we are very scared of them because we have a story about the Russian Revolution. We have a story about the 1990s. And we consider chaos to be extremely harmful. Why dont we go around and talk about future scenarios and how to approach or how to judge the possibility of different kinds of instability in the future . Why dont we start with you, sergei . I think by definition, black swans are impossible to predict. We can identify trends that can bring destabilization. The pressure we talked about is indeed mounting for different events. We know that other people have learned from the school that it is dangerous to rebel against put end. Against putin. That has been clear to many people before and now even more clear. We do see that putin bets everything he has on victory in ukraine. It will be very hard for him. If ukraine gets to win this war, that depends to a great extent on ukraines allies. Too many of them, i think the change of the regime will come when putin is gone, either because he is a mortal human or because people around understand he is too weak. Even though there are risks involved in standing up against him were conspiring against him or see that he is dragging them down. At some point he will go and that will destabilize the regime. For me as a scholar, this regime is based on putins rapport with some russian people, on his narrative that he brought stability and prosperity in the first decade of his rule. Nobody else around him can base their legitimacy on that. The people around him dont trust each other. That helps them to protect himself from the coup in the palace. Once he is gone, the whole system wonte. Regimes like this have succeeded by the role of the people around them who can choose a weak successor and run the country together. Eventually unless they succeed in building a very grassroots level, north korean level repressive regime, eventually they will have to start negotiations and that will involve internal liberalization and also bargaining to remove certain sanctions in exchange for getting out of ukraine on whatever calendar. I think there is an opening once put end is gone. Before that we shouldnt really hope for the change. To push putin out either, physically that is not something i can predict. I am not an expert on putins health. Russians will protest. Now we see protests from the family, but there will be more protests related to the economy. Eventually this will make put an end a liability more than an asset for the people around him. They are scared of being poisoned. At some point, as jorgan said, the Pressure Cooker cannot function as before. These are big trends. The pressure is mounting and we can identify we cannot identify a specific moment when the system cannot function as before. Moderator mikhail . Thank you so much. As a person who once wrote the book called the empire must die about the Russian Revolution of 1917, i love comparing russia today to 100 years ago. For now those comparisons do not work. The revolution that happened a hundred years ago wont happen again, due to a lot of different reasons. Professor guriev said the russian economy is not doing great, but still it is not catastrophic enough to cause the revolution on the scale of 1917. We remember Vladimir Lenin was describing the situation, saying the russian working class has nothing to lose except for their chains. That was the very important condition for the revolution. We see that in russia today. The majority of people still have a lot to lose. Overall the standards of living are much higher than they used to be 20 years ago or ever in russian history. When it comes to the bureaucracy , regional authorities, when it comes to the people who run the security apparatus, it makes it even more important. They have a lot to lose. In a way, for me that is the group that their real chaotic scenario is not possible. At least if i had to speak about the perspective for russia, yesterday before the news we received this morning, i would be definitely saying i do not believe in a chaotic scenario. Because of that kind of stability in the russian bureaucracy, because of that kind of interdependence of russian bureaucracy it seems to be very unified and enjoying the way of life they have. They still didnt lose a lot at the beginning of the fullscale aggression. They still are not suffering because of sanctions. They still are really thankful for president putin, for the way of life they have. It has provided that moral atmosphere within russian bureaucracy, within Russian Security services. The most probable scenario is probably it is not the shortest scenario. If the second act, putin is gone and the people who surround his regime are trying to deal with it, trying to organize a junta, a system of balances. That could be the beginning of a very long process of transformation. The regime is going to survive and be slowly transformed after his death, but his death is obviously the major condition for any changes in future russia. I dont think any kind of revolution or popular protest, or at least yesterday i was sure any popular protest is not able to change the situation. Moderator natalia, do you want to say a bit about scenarios . It is difficult to predict, talking about russia. In december of 202012, i had to flee russia on a 48 hour notice. I thought i would be back in a year. It seemed like the situation was going to change. It was unimaginable, the fullscale invasion of ukraine. It was hard to sink think it could last that long. Now we dont need a crystal ball. The upcoming president ial elections, we understand putin will win in a landslide and strengthen his power over russia. That will be an endorsement of the war with ukraine. At the same time, we understand this decision the same as miriam, i dont believe it will be the same. Put in bama putin, i dont believe russian elites, or i dont believe the Russian Military would stop being an actor. I dont think a united russia will play some role in this vertical of power. Also i understand the relative skepticism about good scenarios in russia. We cant afford not to believe in a good scenario, to fight for it, to have the vision to build roadmaps how to get there. We dont have this luxury to do that. We have to fight every second of our life for that. From history we know that all the regimes will fall. We should be very prepared. It was a mistake not to be ready for changes after the collapse of the soviet union. We have to relax now improving to act now improving things for the future. Like Freedom House and many other organizations, we know how they understand the situation inside russia, how they understand, how to counter propaganda, many other things. They are agents of change. They are the scenarios implemented by prodemocracy russians. Let me stop working in ukraine, searching for civilian hostages for children, working with ukrainians to return them. Documented war crimes, doing many other things like saying what is sanctioned by the regime, what is not. Our action now is much more important. There are so many probabilities. When put in bama dies, and he will eventually, win putinism wont die. It will be the beginning of a war within our society which has been defined by propaganda for so many years. We cannot afford to raise time to waste time. Our group of russia experts identified the war in ukraine as crucial to the future of putins regime, acknowledging that putinism may survive long after. They concluded that the sooner and the more overwhelming russia experiences a defeat in ukraine, the more likely russia is to get a two euro to get a true opportunity for significant change. There overwhelming recommendation to policymakers was support ukraine as much as possible, as soon as possible, because thats what gives russia the greatest hope for positive change, along the lines of what natalia was saying. I think thats a very correct comment and point. I would note a couple of things. One is my concern right now about political prisoners. Especially certain ones, but another one is also suffering because of his health. They need to do a trade. Put in bama indicated in his interview that he is looking to do a trade. I know German Authorities arrested a russian tourist recently and perhaps that is one area. Of course, support for ukraine is an essential part of looking for a in russia itself. Should we open up to questions . I could keep going asking questions but we may have some in the room. The microphone is coming around, so please wait for the microphone. Moderator there were several hands. Thank you all for speaking today. Do you think what happened with the death of navalny, will that convince the republicans in congress to give more aid to ukraine . Do you think it may also help lead to the downfall of trump . Moderator who wants to take that . [laughter] i would say there are a number of things going on right now. In addition to the news about navalny, there is also a statement about new threats from russia from in our congress. There is clearly a conversation going on in the house. Surely these two things are perhaps related. I dont know if anyone wants to say more about u. S. Politics on these issues. Yes, support for ukraine is key for russias future also. Thank you, miriam, and thanks to the panelists for a terrific discussion on this very sad and depressing day. I have a question for all the panelists, or anyone who feels free to address it. Mikhail, you have written compellingly about the formation of the russian imperial creation myth. You have written about it in a very nuanced way but others have recently written about this too. Often the conclusion is, russians have been doing these kinds of things for hundreds of years so thats why they will continue to do it. At the same time, sergei, you have looked at the globalization of authoritarianism and external factors affecting them and you have written about what you call a modernization cocktail. Mikhail, sergei, and anyone else, can you say a few words about both these things . Looking inward later russian history and also external conditions. Specifically, have your opinions changed since both of you published your recent books . And especially perhaps now with todays news. Thank you. Russia is not the only player in this world. When you say russia has been doing that for centuries, thats true. Russia has been doing that for three centuries. Just recently i was preparing my new project about the history of colonization of different parts. I realized that we have silently passed three centuries that started in 1722. So yes, russian experience as an empire is three centuries. Its not the only country in the world that had to struggle with this experience. Who posed a threat to its neighbors, to other people, to the people of russia as well. That was the key issue, how can we overcome it, how can we get rid of that imperial curse. What should we do with our mentality how we should change the perception of our history to get rid of the imperialist approach to russia . When i say we, i mean the russian people. In my recent book, war and punishment, i finished it with the presumption that the beginning of the fullscale invasion of ukraine changes everything. That brutal point is a symbol of that all previous perception is not going to work anymore, that more and more russians understand that the idea of russian greatness, russian superiority, the idea of the unique people, is really brutal and murderous. After these were crimes in ukraine, its not going to be possible to spread that imperial disease. And i still believe that. Even more, i was expecting very different reactions from the russian audience. I expected that i would face a lot of hatred because i was trying to debunk in a very painful way started and i will o that again and again. Rewriting russian history. I now am trying to eliminate traditional imperial narratives and write another narrative of the russian history. The reaction i encountered is different from what i was expecting. I see a lot of people who thought differently before the beginning of this conversation, before the full scale english, before reading my book, they are getting involved in conversation. Sometimes it takes time, but i do not see that hatred from both sides. We all know that sometimes russian liberals are can also be russian imperialists. Still, occasionally, i think that we have started that very dramatic work. It is inevitable, it will be long, i see some positive sides. While i am working. Did you want to comment on that . Yes, i am glad to talk about globalization and the effect of globalization on the nature of dictatorships. It is that the summation of the regime from the repression and hereto being based on information and life, this is something that is linked probably to what we call a modernization. New technology, this benefit is in part of the global economy, democratic societies and democratic leaders. We talked about how it is hard to be growing if you are not having people in charge of education who are more critical than people who can only read and write. Workers telling me those. Today, if you are successful in guiding like singapore, you need to be educated if you like. This creates incentives to work on the old model of dictatorships and have a role based on lies and fear. Some leaders decide to go back to the old century model, in the book, they talk about how that was the case where there was a difficult 21st century and populations, the successor has charisma, nor a lack of understanding. They went back in time and used force. That happens. Some of those indicators no longer can throw money. This is what happened in russia as well. The second edition of this book which we sent to bring and we considered what happened and putin going away, exactly because he was facing the problem, people liked the facts. Do your question, it is also does that mean that it is the case . What putin has done going back in time, opening him up to the model of fear which has started to do before the war in 2021 in our first edition, we were talking about things that may be happening. After february 20 fourth, 2022 down all of the media. The announcement that the censorship and put people in jail for years. That information also undermined the russian economy. I think that eventually, there is a big mistake because it supported the Life Expectancy of putins regime lessened the Life Expectancy of putins regime. The benefits that people have mentioned for the elites and russian people at large. I think the modernization, the globalization increases incentives. Some leaders besides them go back in time because they lacked capacity to continue functioning as dictators or for some reason they make mistakes. In the case of putin, i think it is both. The effectiveness of the russian in a social media and for the leaders. It really impacts more people than tv shows, weekly shows. To a point, exactly of the day they were coming back to moscow, on thursday to go live again. That is the most effective tool. He was trying to come back on thursday to go live because it was an effective tool against putins propaganda. Social media is also a mistake, we can make it, to the encouragement of the ukrainians. It has been censored. Still, the work has done well with expectations. He also has his own army which is cut off and demoralized. That was a mistake, again, we need to give more weapons to ukraine and more money to ukraine during this war if you want russia to be democratic and peaceful, if you want to kick out putin, ukraine aid should win. I think this is something which has nothing to do with the book. This is something which we see a war of this entry going on in europe today. These other wars which are not only won in the information battle, these are wars that are also being fought, cold wars that are being fought on the battlefield and ukraine is doing this and only the United States can help. Quick question and then we will collect some questions. On this question of pressure, with an imperial identity, in many ways it is like russia still in 19th century european colonial empire power. Somehow russia did not get the memo in the 20th century that empires are no longer advisable or desirable or sustainable or comfortable. Our group identified that russian idea, a great power with the right to influence on its neighbors as the greatest impediment for progress. Until that idea is surrendered, and russian braces a different future for itself, embraces a different for itself; we must protect ourselves, our freedom and our partners. Why do we not collect a few more questions . Hopefully. Maybe do 1, 2, three, and four . Thank you, what do you expect would be the current administrations response to now many to the murder . What there be any physical act like for example we know that President Biden limited the range of the missiles provided by the United States to avoid escalation, do you think the murder escalated things . I worked at an ngo in russia and to fight corruption and work for them for five years to think what he is thinking right now, about a response, is there a chance to flood the Information Space in russia . With all of the great work that he did over the history of his foundation. I was analytical, extremely technical and sort of making the case abound putins systemic corruption. The strategic fashion strategically, technically, is there a moment, i do not know whether we in the west has done enough to make the case around just how corrupt putin and his people are, whether there are limitations on the technically, whether there are risks to it, i am sure you all have use of this. We raising this question at this point, thank you. Thank you. Can we take two more . Thank you. I am in the asia center here, i am looking at russia from a different perspective than what we have been discussing this morning. I think that the decision to invade ukraine has created some other significant pressures that will affect russias future from the east, particularly the alliance with china, china is in the process of repopulating siberia. Them and economically. Millions of chinese have moved into siberia, they are taking part parts of siberia. That is a longterm chinese ambition, particularly with xi jinping. This is being ignored because he is dependent on the relationship with china. The other big thing he is doing that could affect internally is using the asian minorities and other minorities in the country as cannon fodder in the war in ukraine and how will that affect internal stability in the future . Well other parts of russia start to peel off will other parts of russia start to peel off towards asia . These are Global Trends i think we should not be ignoring as we look at the post putin period because he has sown the seeds of a lot of russias potential future destruction. Thank you, i am a democratic individual in the european policy analysis. Thank you about changes in russia and the recent reports of the russia security in europe and thank you because it is important. What do you mean by ukraine . The narrative changed from one that we have to lament and now it is ukraine is Still Standing or this is already in victory. My second question is do you think the strategy of the United States which allow ukraine to not be defeated but never allowed ukraine to actually win the war, how should it be changed . We have a lot of questions. What is the start . Our history, it is important for us in russia to understand that we have at this point because we did not analyze our history well enough after the collapse of the soviet union, we did not condemn the crimes of the regime and we did not think of all of this. When i was in school, my ethnicity, we were involuntarily joined into the empire and we did not discuss all of that. It is a huge country, has 11 time zones. All of this is important to move forward, at the same time, it is important not to become hostage of our history, that is what putin has done, rewritten our history. The mentality and the behavior of many people is impacted by their experience, but who is next to them in the environments, it is important for us, to find good things, to find new heroes and new concepts and to build on that. To make our history not like others, discuss the soviet leaders and putin and all of them, remember about the people. Right now, is in history, not only all of these on the putin side but also we should remember about those inside of russia and in exile and the prisoners. The execution of the centers and all of that, that is part of the history but i think also very important. About flooding the space, i think it is also about the russians to talk to russians and give the truthful information on what is happening. This is difficult because of all of the restrictions and report sanctions, and the targets and more targeting and things like that. At the same time russia is the second country in the world to install ibms, a lot of things are happening in social media. A lot of oldschool methods like printing out and passing mailboxes and things like that. Things are happening. I think minorities, it is true that it is proportional, it is not only ethnical republics, it was more those who have been conscripted to the war our from are from the poorest regions of russia. It was deliberate strategy and policy to take all of the money and distribute it between the nations. The biggest demand is the forest assimilation, the dictatorship has never happen in the United States, the democrat is asian of russia, it is rather than anything else. Democratization of russia, it is rather than anything else. The russian minorities, majorities, it is still 70 of territories. It is difficult to think about all of this versus anything else, the republic has 30 . Only six national republics where ethnicity is the majority the region. There is a divide, the republic was divided into five parts, now three regions of the russian state and it will be more like colonization should happen, our values, our mentality rather than it is a process. Also, it is good and all nations should have the rights to joy but only after democracy in russia is a good idea, ukraines victory, we understand the border of 1991, the internationally recognized border. The influence is nothing. Mind your own business. Ukraine, of course, joining nato, it can be civilized and normal neighbors. This is the victory of ukraine. Just to pick up another question, as a follow i do not speak for the u. S. Government will represent the government, i would not presume to predict their reaction to todays events if it proves to be true. What i will say is that this news would add to the already massive pile of evidence that the putin regime is engaged in an endless stream of illegal, horrific, immoral, dangerous, destabilizing behaviors. In ukraine and elsewhere. This adds to the case that our job number one should be to help ukraine and to deter, contain, and mitigate russias unhelpful and unconstructive destructive behaviors throughout the international scene. On the question of communicating and saturating messaging into pressure, putins ability to control the modes by which people can communicate with russians, he spends a lot of time and resources on preventing those kinds of communications. Without a doubt it is hard. A lot of folks are backing their brains to figure out how do we communicate to russians and how do we communicate his vision to russians, citizens that there is a potential future in which they can be independent, secure, and prosperous and they do not need to fear us or anyone else. The tools are limited, it is difficult. That is why in some ways and both messages also often are better from other russians. And so, there are a lot of communications with the Russian Community in exile about how they communicate with their friends and families and colleagues back in russia. Im not an expert but i know a lot of folks spend their time to build bridges and establish that communication. However we may feel about the regime, getting those messages, hopeful messages to the russian people, it should be and is part of the goal here. Did you want to comment on any of those questions . I would say a couple of words and what we could do in ukraine and what it means. The question is that today, the narrative has changed. We call this a change with the russian exiles and would like to say that all russian opposition and organizations have spoken on the victory of ukraine and why and why we need to protect ukraine and all opposition and politicians, a year ago they had the open letter from prison on the first day of the full scale invasion, russian citizens had her very clearly. Russia should come back to 1991 with help from ukraine, russia should send more criminals to russian tribunals. Two oh tribunals. International tribunals. They also signed thanks and we agreed on what ukraine means. Is it possible this year . It is not possible without massive support to honor Alexei Navalnys call from prison. I want to say this, i agree with him that it is very important for russia and the future of russia. , it is a top priority. The issue that comes to my mind is after all of those questions, we need to remember that there are russian people who do not support putin and wheat not to equalize that and we want to remember that there are a lot of people inside of russia who believe in the democratic future of russia. We now see that the videos that have been from russia, a lot of it is expectations. Being organized for Alexei Navalny. The news is not confirmed, but people are emotional and they are paying tributes and bringing flowers. It must be very dangerous for them politically. We must remember that we, we, the west, we have allies in russia and people are important, these people are the future of russia and yes it is important to think about them. It is important to think of how we can help them. It is we do not need to flood russia with any kind of information because there are a lot of very high quality Russian Media. They are watched in russia. They have an audience. Very easy steps, for an example at the beginning of a fullscale invasion, on youtube, there have been sanctioned Russian Media, all Russian Media. Any independent Russian Media cannot monetize their work. That is a problem. That is a wellknown problem for everyone who is dealing with Russian Media and russian independent media and it seems like it is impossible to solve the problem. We do not need to impose something, we should just think of helping those russians who already were. Thank you. Thank you, our time has ended, i want to redouble the point made about flooding Russian Media. Alexei navalnys films, the film about the mansion had 100 million views. Or more than that. The film that 250 million. We do not need to flood. I would just add another film that was made a few weeks ago has over one million of those points, looking precisely at the question of russias colonialization of siberia. There are russians making excellent material and the best thing for us to be doing is supporting them. Supporting their work. On the question of ukraine, i think people are clear ukraine is like the 1991 borders, im grateful to all of our panelists, thank you. It is a difficult time and difficult questions that we are considering. Thank you to the audience and to u. S. Ip and also, greg, i am sorry, you will make some comments . Thank you so much. And all of our panelists, absolutely terrific discussion on this difficult day. Thank you. Thank you to all of you who came here and to everybody online, apologies, we could not get to questions online. Thank you to the u. S. Institute of peace and to american purpose for joining the institute of current World Affairs for this panel series. Just before we go i would like to say that the video of this talk will be available on the Institute Website and also on the usa p and american purpose site and we have videos from the three previous discussions including on russian scholars in exile and on the political opposition. I will look forward to continuing these important conversations. Thank you. [applause] [inaudible]