Transcripts For CSPAN National--Forum 20130729

Were still sort of young into this, but, you know, so far, were not seeing a lot of improvement in Republican Party numbers as of late july. We havent seen that quite yet. And so were sort of watching to see, do those problems just sort of Carry Forward . Now, one thing i have to say is that usually the dynamics of one election dont really Carry Forward into the next. Usually its about something different. But we have had times when its repeated and, you know, you could almost look at 2006, which was a great democratic year, and 2008, which was a great democratic year. They flowed into one another. But thats really, really, really unusual. I think you probably have to go back, with 32, 34, 36, to find another time where the flow just sort of continued on from one election to the next, but obviously it could happen. But the other one is that this is a traditional second term, Midterm Election. You know, we know historically that bad things typically happen to presidencies in their second term. You know, in some ways, its the freshness, the newness, the novelty of a brandnew president thats worn off, new ideas not so much, the energy, the focus, it just sort of starts unraveling. Sometimes the ateam has left the field, the team that actually elected that president. Theyve moved on to make money, and now the b or c team is sort of in there. But for a wide variety of reasons, they just tend to run out of gas when they get into their second term, doesnt matter whether their democrat or republican, but weve seen that historically over the last or in the postworld war ii era. The second thing that typically happens is stuff goes wrong. And you can have economic down turns, like eisenhower had in 1958. You could have scandals like watergate in the nixonford administration, and irancontra in the reagan misdemeanors, but that actually broke on election day. Monica lewinsky, obviously, is another. You can have unpopular wars, like vietnam for the Kennedy Johnson administration, or the iraq war for george w. Bush. So you could have economic down turns, you could have scandals, you could have unpopular wars, but those have a tendency to happen in the second term. The third thing is that you could also have sort of chickens coming home to roost, decisions, decisions that were made, dynamics that sort of were created in the first term, sometimes they kind of come back on a president and bite him on the rear end during that second term. And one of the things were obviously going to be watching very carefully is the Affordable Care act, a. K. A. , obamacare. We know that in 2009 and 2010, president obamas first two years in office when the Affordable Care act was pushed through, it became enormously polarizing, controversial, and was one of the, say, two leading reasons why democrats lost control of congress back in 2010, the house in 2010, that it was it was Affordable Care act and, you know, not a little bit of the economy sort of thrown in for good measure. Then in 2011 and 2012, to be honest, i dont think that many people changed their minds on the Affordable Care act during that twoyear period of time. The people that were going to hate it had already decided they hated it. The people that liked it still liked it. And roughly a quarter of American People that were undecided were still undecided. Now, the next question is, as we go into 2013 and 2014 and more parts of the law, realize that part of its been pushed back to january 2014, but as it starts to become implemented, do we see it become controversial again, yes or no . And thats something where, you know, what you ought to do maybe is, you know, do your own research and look at any impact on your own healthcare policies and, you know, have rates gone up or down or stayed the same and whats happened in terms of the copays, that sort of thing, and ask your friends and relatives and neighbors, and just sort of get a sense anecdotally of what people are saying about it, and youll have kind of a fair idea maybe of what starts happening there. So what ive done is started watching and weve got it on our website is sort of a little guide to looking at the political environment in terms of trying to look for some cues about, is this going to be a republican problem to continue, or is this going to be a second term problem occur yet again for another president or something entirely different . And what i would suggest you do is sort of watch some of the polling data. You know, number one, you watch the president s Approval Rating, because Midterm Elections do typically, they are, to a certain extent, a referendum on the incumbent president. Right now, the president is at a equilibrium point, where more or less his approval and disapproval numbers are about the same, in the mid to high 40s, so hes not an asset for democrats, but hes not a liability either, but watch those numbers. Hes been dropping since, say, midjanuary about, a point every three or four weeks, and does that level off at some point or keep going, whatever . You know, watch the overall job Approval Rating. The second thing is watch Public Attitudes towards the economy. One thing that happens is that when things are when the economy is perceived to be good or improving, people are a lot more forgiving than if they think its not doing so well or getting worse. And one of the things that really helped president clinton back in his second term through the whole monica affair today is her 40th birthday is that but whos counting . I completely lost my train of thought. [laughter] guess im wearing a blue shirt. But anyway, what why did i say that . The economy was doing really, really well, and as a result, i think people are a little bit more tolerant than if the economy was getting worse. And i noticed in my home state of louisiana that voters in louisiana were always more forgiving when oil prices were up and the state economy was good, and that when the oil prices were down, the states economy was down, they were less forgiving, and sometimes bought some of their politicians were not quite as funny when the state economy wasnt doing so well. So watch Consumer Confidence, conference board, university of michigan numbers, and theyre roughly right now basically at or very close to a sixyear high. Does it stay that high or improve . Again, public a little bit more forgiving given the tough times that we went through. On the other hand, if Consumer Confidence starts coming down, you know, its pretty clear what you ought to what conclusion you ought to draw from that. The third thing is the Affordable Care act, and one of the things im watching, and we have this little political environment guide, is watching the keyser Family Foundation tracking its almost monthly, where they ask questions on the Affordable Care act and favorable and unfavorable attitudes. And most recently, these are off the top of my head, but Something Like 37 , 38 favorable and roughly 45 unfavorable, with about 23 undecided, Something Like that. Watch those numbers and see if they start changing. The favorability numbers, do they go up or down . Just sort of watch for any major changes there, and that can give you a hint about where things may be going. The next thing is the favorable or unfavorable ratings of the two parties. I confess, i look at a lot of polling data and have for many, many years, this is not something ive particularly paid a lot of attention to in the past, but im really starting to. Because for republicans to take advantage of democratic problems, they really need to get their numbers get their favorable Party Numbers up, and the numbers are down, and that simply hasnt happened. Theres the brand damage that youve heard so much about over the last couple of years. It is still very, very real, and republicans need to do something to address those problems with minority, women, younger and selfdescribed moderate voters. So far that hasnt happened yet. At the same time, if the same problems that typically happen, if they start reoccurring, then you can expect the democratic partys favorable numbers to start coming down and unfavorable numbers coming up. You know, a good characterization right now is the republicans, the American People are not real happy with democrats. In fact, democrats have fairly lousy numbers. Its just that the Republican Party has worse numbers. And so watch those. And then finally, watch the generic congressional ballot test, where they ask if they were held today, would you vote for the democratic candidate for congress or some pollsters will ask, which party would you rather see control . It doesnt make any difference. One thing you need to know about that question is that it typically has, for some bizarre reason, and ive never heard a good explanation for it, but it typically has about a two or threepoint tilt in favor of democrats when you compare what it ends up being with the National Popular vote for the house of representatives. Dont know why, but it sort of does. Now, for that reason, a lot of people, a lot of analysts dont like to look at the generic ballot test. For me, you know, i could use my Louisiana Public School Arithmetic and subtract two or three from almost any number. So for me, i can do that and kind of figure out where it is. Now, the generic doesnt tell you how many seats one party is going to gain or lose or anything like that, but it does tell you sort of roughly which way the wind is blowing, and this is lightly, or is it moderately or is it heavily, which way is it going . So its a useful indicator there. And so i would suggest you sort of watch those kind of metrics to get an idea as we get into this fall and as we get into the the Election Year officially starts, watch those things to kind of figure out for yourself, is it scenario a or b or is it something completely different . And i dont want to dismiss one other possibility. What if its kind of all the above . What if voters are growing, the novelty has worn off of president obamas freshness, and, you know, theyre not really you know, kind of hit the mute button, not listening to him that much anymore, but at the same time, what if republicans havent fixed their problem . You just sort of have a muddle of both scenarios. And right now, if i had to actually pick one, i think thats actually the one that i would pick right now. Now, in terms of the house of representatives, lets just talk about the end game, in terms of the house of representatives, its pretty, pretty, patriot unlikely, and i think most people in this room would agree, pretty unlike that will republicans will lose their majority in the house. The democrats need a 17seat net gain, which isnt a huge number, but when you sort of look at where the Congressional District boundaries are drawn and sort of the landscape, its hard to see how either party could pick up double digits, particularly 17 seats. 93 of all republicans in the house of representatives are sitting in districts that mitt romney carried. 96 of all districts that democrats hold are in districts that president obama carried. And so, to a large extent, the house has kind of sorted it out, and republicans were very fortunate that they had that terrific 2010 election, the election preceding the Congressional District boundaries, and so they were able to, in a lot of states with governors and legislatures, draw boundaries that were better than theyve seen in a very, very long time. And not to be partisan about it, but democrats had done that plenty of times in previous decades, and this time where they had a chance to, for example, illinois. But the thing about it is, because of where these lines are drawn, its really, really, really hard for either party to get a major switch, and particularly for democrats to do it. Another factor to keep in mind and this is actually in my office to the races National Journal daily column from this morning keep in mind, Midterm Election turnout dynamics typically are a little different from president ial Election Years, and particularly when you look at the groups where democrats have done so, so well in recent years in president ial elections like young people, like women, like particularly unmarried women, the minority voters have a tendency to overperform some in president ial years, but then underperform in midterm Election Years. And yesterday, stan greenberg, democratic pollster, works with the democracy corps, and paige gardner, whose womens voices, women vote, they released some surveys that showed exactly that, that among all voters, democrats were ahead by one point on the generic ballot test, but among likely voters, as i remember, they were down two points. And looked at specifically unmarried women. Thats a key group that democrats are focusing on enormously, because the gap between democrats and republicans on unmarried women, you know, its close to like 30 points or something. Its an enormous gap, and thats where democrats really have their work cut out for them in terms of boosting up turnout with some of these groups that helped them so much in 2008 and 2010, or 2008 and 2012, and obviously didnt help them in 2010. Some of you may be wondering, well, the previous Midterm Elections, democrats did very well in 2006, which is absolutely true, but that was really more of an election. It wasnt about turnout dynamics changing so much as independent voters, because of the war in iraq, swinging very strongly away from president bush in favor of democrats. That really wasnt a turnout dynamic situation. The senate is obviously where the action is going to be, where democrats are, everybody here knows, overexposed. You know, if you just looked at the numbers, out say, wow, this is not just this is not a question of whether democrats are going to lose senate seats, but how many are they going to lose. Now, theres one problem with making that statement, and that is that most of us made that statement two years ago. And that, you know, through most of the 2012 election cycle, it really did look like republicans would pick up two, three, four u. S. Senate seats in that election. We have to have two mindsets. The cards are dealt by the previous election. In the senate, because of his sixyear terms, we have to look back to say what happened six years earlier . In 2012 we were operating off a base of 2006, a terrific year for democrats with the war and president bushs Midterm Election and all the arguments we ever talked about. So they had a great election in 2006. There were overexposed in 2012. They probably should have lost seats. A couple of people decided it would be really good idea to swallow hand grenades after pulling the pins. Bad breaks here and there. We went from a situation where everyone thought republicans would pick up threefour seats to a net loss. That is why i am a little reticent about saying even though the dynamics are very similar, 2008 was a great year for democrats, therefore 2014 they are overexposed. By all rights democrats are enormously over exposed. A lot of this will be contingent upon can republicans fix their problems, both in terms of macro problems on the one side, and as well as problems like are they getting good people to run . Are those people winning their primaries . And what kind of campaigns they run, that sort of thing. Republicans have been snake bit in the senate for the past two elections. Even though 2010 was a terrific year for the Republican Party and they did pick up a good number of senate races in 2006, of the seven senate races that were tossups going into election day into a dozen 10, republicans lost five out of seven. In 2012 they lost eight out of 10. And so theres sort of a monkey that republicans have to get off their back where theyve been losing the close races. Some of it is brand damage. Bit of it is technology. We can talk about that later if you like. The republicans have you know if the republicans get their act together, they ought to be able bunch of seats in this election. Now, as of today, the epublicans need a net gain of five seats to get a majority in the senate. The real number is six. They borrowed a seat in new jersey that theyre going to lose in october in that special election that theyre hardly contesting. So the big number is going to be republicans that will need. And surely there are six opportunities out there. Are three democratic open seats that look more likely than not to go to republican hands. But its the fourth, fifth, sixth seats that republicans to really worry about. Mark bag get in arkansas, rk pryor in Mary Landrieu in louisiana, to laeszer extent, kay hagen in the carolina would be seventh that they would be looking at. Can they tip over . Can republicans tip those over in addition to, you know, in south dakota and in West Virginia and whats other one im thinking of . Republican montana. Montana, yes, where bachus is retiring. And Brian Sweitzer not running. So you have three republican democraticheld seats that looks like its probably going to go to republican side. The key is fourth, fifth, and sixth and thats assuming on to e republicans hang all of the wrong seats. Seats only one republican up in a democratic not counting new jersey, in a democratic leaning state. Susan collins in maine. For s she doesnt run reelection or bumped off in a primary, i dont think those are going to happen. Fine. The only one were looking at is Saxby Chambliss is retiring. Thats where later the daughter is running. Five or six republicans are side. G on the other the question is whether nun is unning, whether nuns candidacy, it really sort of republicans if nominate how to i say this . An exotic or potentially problematic nominee. Thats the term i used with my not trying to convince me to use the word whacko anymore. If they nominate a sort of chromosamal alignment they hold on to the seat. Little in shifting a the south. Virginia has become a state. Iably mid atlantic its not behaving like a Southern State anymore. Classic swing state. North carolina is sort of working its way through the transition. Its not as far along as is. Inia but it is getting less and less every day. Rn state georgias way back. But its sort of moving the same the rest rection and of the deep south just isnt moving at all. Georgia is sort of not there yet. Actually texas is its own world. Talking about texas or florida. Yet. Orgia is not there but if republicans nominate someone who cant reach out to suburbs but do well with moderate suburban voters, particularly the voters that are parts of the country that have moved in to georgia in thatast 30, 40 years, then would be one that they could potentially lose as well. Thats really the only republican seat that i Pay Attention to at all. Thats sort of where we are right now. Its sort of were raising lots not coming one a lot of answers. But its certainly in the cycle. Thats what keeps this thing keeps this thing interesting is of the different permentations of what can happen. O why dont we sort of open it up now to questions, comments, accusationings. Microphones here, here, and over there. Just raise your hand in a nonthreatening way and a its way to ill make you. Theres one right here. Do you have one there . Okay. Start off here and well come over here next. Thanks very much. Pacific gas electric. You just went through the races watching and you didnt mention kentucky at all. O given theres a lot of swirl on that, a lot of speculation. Ust curious why youre not mentioning it at all. A, its early in the morning nd my 5hour energy hasnt completely kicked in. I should have i should have mentioned that. I apologize. A hink you come up with legitimate decent democratic candidate against mitch kentucky and you get 47 . 47 , 48 . You get that. Is do you get on 3 . Next 2 or and thats a very, very hard 2 or 3 . It is that mcconnell ecause mcconnell is a very polarizing figure, he probably generic orms a republican because hes got such sharp elbows. And what what democrats are is that primes can reach in and grab some of those moderate, moderately in the tive women louisville suburbs in the around ti suburbs lexington can reach in and sort of go after some of these voters uncomfortableeyre a little bit with guns. Little bit e a uncomfortable with abortion whatever the issues are. They can kind of peel some off, just a couple of percentages off mcconnell and beat him. And so i think this is going to race but its one that if i were grimes, i would low to keep a relatively profile early on, get my lined up, nal ducks raise my money, get fully up to because federal issues shes got a shes got to know equivalent of the a president ial campaign on the other side. Misstep, real or imagined, theyre going to pounce on and just beat the daylights out of her. So i think shes got to do this in a very measured way. So im not expecting to hear some out of this race for a while to go. But its certainly we fully expect it to be a top tier race. For not using get i leave a t all that race out. Yes, sir . Im in the american physical society, im a physicist. I look at misstep, real or imagined, theyre going to pounce on and just beat the daylights out of her. So i think shes got to do this numbers. You and i have a lot in common. My grade in basic physics in college. You should have taken one of my courses. About the issue of turnout. The polling doesnt reflect some the issues of the Trayvon Martin trial or i should say zimmerman trial. I wonder whether in fact were oing to see a mobilization on minorities who are very upset with this. Same issues of the as women on restrictions of abortion. Ut its not going affect the house, it could affect a number of senate races. Have any views on that . Occurredk if this case in september or october of next possibility ofhe that really ratcheting up minority turnout would be numb very, very high. But issues tend to have shelf lives. And energy and focus tend to have shelf lived. Nd in politics, 15 months is a really, really long period of time. And so obviously i think youre going to have groups on the democratic side that are going try to kind of bottle capture that energy and keep it going. A very, very, very hard thing to do. And, you know, think about the scene inrse of Jurassic Park where youre getting chased by the dinosaur in the Rearview Mirror and it says, you know, bjects may be closer than they appear. Its kind of the opposite of that. That the longer the longer election is, the further away it is, the less likely to be relevant. The more likely Something Else will be relevant. So thats why im a little i theres a tendency that we all naturally have to look at happening to us right into d project that well the future. And so i would say is whats in the news in september . October . N the news in whats in the news the first november, thatof would be more relevant. Learly clearly that an event like that can really can really change thingings. The other thing i might change, though, is that the when we talk about the difference and en Midterm Election president ial election turnout, among arent as wide between say africanamericans, between midterm and election term. Itss not quite as wide as some groups. Thats one of the reasons why greenberg and womens voices, groups are ng focusing on unmarried women. Its enormous. These are people a lot of these politics ot follow avidly. Its a good group its an rats in that Efficient Group if they can move the numbers quickly if they could volt. A group voting in easonably high numbers and africanamerican turnout doesnt trail white turnout by that much harder to ss a lot move these numbers forward. And im sure you know of some technical term if i dont. So its certainly the case. Good morning. Patty ritchie with target. Discuss the trauma becoming the wyoming race . Sorry . Yeah. I think im going to stop answering questions from this right over here. You know, there are a lot of why incumbents draw challenges. Sometimes somebody is old and touch with the state. Sometimes theyve gotten either liberal rvative or too or too moderate in id logically their state. Ith sometimes they might have that. Als, Something Like i cant really find any of those enzi. Mike and it would be uncharitable to this is just about personal ambition. To be mind is open persuaded that thats not the case. Sometimes silence is golden, you know . Whos next . I guess over here is next. Charlie richard hall from amway. I had the pressure to go back to day. Port the other uhoh. I tried to engage everyone i landrieu about mary and no one wanted to talk politics at all. Thosere you hearing about races down there . Part of the issue. He reference to the hometown, by the way. Is that he problem shreveport about what it is. Not known particularly in shreveport. All. Race isnt engaged at so louisiana hasnt turned the corner and focused i think on the senate race. This is going to be a race that big landrieu, you know, one side of going to be shes taking over the Senate Energy committee and, you know, lot of influence in a state thats historically had a lot. Late hasnt had as much. Senator e other hand, landrieu has been the beneficiary of having really opponents or really, really good years for democrats. So shes never had a tough opponent in a tough year. Going to really, really test her. Think this this is, i believe, the toughest opponent had. And at worst, for republicans it be a level Playing Field in louisiana, at worst. I think this is going to be the toughest had yet. Shes i mean certainly its tougher woody jenkins. Daught darrow. An suzy as as tough a year republicans as 2008 was. It was. Ad a year as but you get the general idea. Know the outcome of just three states, that would be one of the three i would want to do. Along with alaska and arkansas. I go to four, id go to kentucky, maybe next. But it would be a good race. Shes going have to run i think has ter campaign than she in the past because she has a tougher opponent. But louisiana is a tough a for a federal candidate to win statewide now. It really, it really is. Had a wondering why you race with the governor election or the senate, North Carolina ng i think i specifically mentioned it, but i dont put it right at the i sort of put it at three democratic seats that leaning republican. And then there are three more, alaska, arkansas, louisiana, that i think are top tier. Back a little bit find and find and North Carolina. Tom, the speaker, i ran into him know, this is the first time to kind of run on the big stage. And sometimes state house speakers, state Senate President s, sometimes they really good statewide candidates and sometimes not so good. Know, we have to sort of let that race develop. But, you know, hes not in know, what does the legislature. What is the image of the legislature going to be like. So i think that race simply hasnt developed yet. We know that the first three are hotly o be very contested. May now, North Carolina very well get there. Its sort of not there yet. Clearly one , its i am watching. But, you know, you have to kind cant prior titz all of them as top races. You have to make some delineationings. So i put three three ahead of that in terms of the really hot races. Certainly one that were going be watching. Know, i dont think hagen is terribly well defined in the state. True. K thats i guess its good news and bad news for her. He good news is shes not defined in a pejorative way. Shes not define in a positive way. Shes not well defined. Something that shes got to do before tillus ahead of momentum. Mika hanson with hrp. Louisiana, you had mentioned this would be the first time that Mary Landrieu and have a tough opponent tough year. Considering how the legislature bobby jindal ly has been faring in the state, do you think that could help lift case . N this i not really. Numbers are als not particularly good right now. I think thats absolutely true. Think i saw some that they were around same as president obamas in the state or maybe a touch lower. I dont think that the inor or the legislature mean, i mentioned the legislature in connection with North Carolina because tom is the speaker of the North Carolina house. I just dont think that the senate race will be the other byway or the governor of the state legislature. Its a federal race. Its going to be more sort of washington oriented. Be a ow, there may epublican Congress Versus a democratic president or a Republican House versus a democratic senate. Just dont think that thats going to be connected in any way. So if landrieu gets reelected, be nt think its going to because of the governor or the legislature. I dont think theyre that connected. They could be. Morning, scottie greenwood. Thank you for all of this. Thank you for the hospitality and hosting it. Back to georgia, maybe a quick could. If you i think your analysis is that relevant is nunn is somebody op nominated exotic and i wanted to ask if you consider michelle nunn, that shes a generational change, not a politician. Shes been ceo of the largest ervice organization in the world, iconic family name, etc. Layer in that the democrats have not won in for the last couple of cycles, they try to get the unregisterled africanamerican women and allried hat, do you think nunns candidacy can be relevant or is it all about the crazies on the other side. I dont think georgia is yet really oint where a strong democrat could make the difference. Virginia is there, north is maybe there. Look at the numbers in georgia, for example. Where in the blue jersey is there a liability in georgia still. Not as much as it used to be a while back, but it still is a liability. And i think this being a fresh face, a new person, all that. Think that changes the color. Think what you have to have for her, again, 6, 8, 10, 12 may well ow, this very well be different. But right now, i think she does need to have a an opponent who, you know, a fairly middle of the road person independent, just kind of looks at it and says, i cant go there. So i dont think were quite there yet. Ll those things that may well help her, the republicans, if more ate is still a lot republican than not, i dont think that alone really gets her there. Its its just take a look president ial and its kind of a its a pretty good big sample poll of sort of country is neither side really competed hard in it. A reflectionort of of where was the state right then. And then its on the blue, ioning from red to its still very much on the red side and would take a while to get to blue. Texas. Nd of like texas just isnt there yet. Good morning. The american surety growers. Skipped over social media. You mentioned it earlier. Into that going to come play . And how has that tracked all of the tweets and the twitters and i think only birds do because im old. How does that track and how does that come into play . Youre asking someone who 60 later this year. Youre asking the wrong person. And i was looking at that hinking, god, i hope that its mjcharliecook is a twit. Probably is now. Person. Im the wrong theres probably people who could speak more eloquently and expertly than i. Thats out there. Innovation isnt new. Can remember back when before, the old of you remember kind of fax machines that you put it under a piece of paper, a lip, that it would spin around. Things , all of these have revolutionized politics in different ways. Social media is the same way. But and so all of these are enovations that are really, really important. But i dont think it changes i dont think social media changes anybodys values. I dont think it changes their olitical orientation in any way. What it does is just speed up processing of information getting information out to eople who maybe in some cases they dont read news. They dont listen to they news. Watch cable they dont read they dont watch television news. Its getting information to kind of crevasses that sometimes normally news doesnt go to. Think mething i republicans, you know, the expand it from social media to technology. Need to ns really do kind of catch up. Terms of the whole idea for technology and software and social media is a part of it. But if you think about it, the 2004 reelection Bush Campaign was absolutely state of the art it was data that ining, microtargeting, to the extent that in 2004, republicans with right there at the cutting edge. Ut for all intents and purposes, the next eight years ere pretty much lost on the party. Ican and during that time, remember n 2004, you know, the the republicans didnt have it alone. You had the Dean Campaign and the kerry campaign. They were also doing technology and social media and these sorts of things. But they kept developing them obama and intoth 2012. So id say on the broader technology side, this is republicans need really, really work on. Contributing editor of the report wrote a piece recently where she was pointing on the democratic side, a while the Obama Campaign developed a lot, these people have gone out to the sector. Youve got private sector initiatives going on, developing datang Edge Technology and ases while she was drawing the republican side. Almost like the fiveyear stalin lan where it sort of centralized and not in the private sector and maybe not as as it needs to be whereas democrats are and that epublicans might be well advised to sort of revisit a little how theyre approaching not having it in something thats sort of a oneoff of the rnc. Dominion. Mckay with the case because its not constructive of the future. O you expect it to be the case this time or do the candidates involved kind of throw that theory out . No, i think that the i new jersey governors race will be of absolutely no telling of anything. At all. Governors race is i think unusually i think it it is going to be an interesting test. Mean, lets just start off a h say, okay, virginias swing state. Nd we know that virginia has a history of voting of electing party rs of the opposite from that from whoevers whichever side is in the white house. A tendency. Ts you know, its obviously not in concrete. But we know thats out there. Itss an interesting test thats out there. What you have is two candidates that are of, by, and their respective bases. In a swing state where independent and moderate voters getting more and more fielded , neither side a candidate that was sort of madetoorder to go after swing voters. So, to me, the voters between two 40 yardlines, they are absolutely up for grabs. Youre republican and you wanted to go after between the im not ine voters, sure you would have nominated cuccinelli. If you were a democrat and you go for the voters between the two 40s, im not a formerwould nominate Democratic National chairman. So i think in a in a really way, this is a great jump Ball Situation where side has a natural claim on the other. Just sort of how people feel about national the two in about parties may steer may steer ome of those moderate independents one direction or the other. Keep in mind that four years obama had just ad just taken office, just taken office. Nominee the democratic just won the nomination. And within a month and there was a pole or two that showed him ahead of cdonald of bob mcdonald. A poll or two. Suddenly, deeds started just dropping. Picking up. Rted deeds must have been did i Say Something wrong . Did i not shower this morning . Just happened . I just started dropping like a stone. The reason was president obamas numbers had started dropping at that point. Party had just just almost overnight lost the omentum they had in 2008, a state that had gone democratic in 2008. Nd suddenly it started transitioning right out from under deeds and you saw that ational dynamic really, really kick in there. Id love to think now whos going win the race, not because it will tell us where the country is going in 2014, but itss probably the indicator we have this year of you know, itss sort of thats gest sample poll going to be out there this year way ing voters and which theyre really going. Great. K its going to be did i tell you who i thought was going to win . No. Think a lot of voters in virginia still dont know a whole lot about either candidate. Its going to be particularly Northern Virginia voters. Think its going to be maybe the last month or so when this thing engages. Theres a good chance we wont all the way up. Grant moreham of thornton. Good to see you, charlie. You spoke about technology and races. Act on the can you address the changes that ollsters are having to deal with with making sure their accurate and how that evolution could impact the predictability of races as we move to this next election. Thats another terrific question. Give an answer hats like pre2012 answer and then let me give an affectedby answer. Because of the rise of telemarketing through the and the last 0s voicemail voicemail, caller i. D. , all these things. Im not even including at phones. Int cell the effectiveness of market polling and political has gone down. And the Response Rates how make alls do you have to before you get one completion . Nd at one point, it was up in the 30s and now, you know, its in the 10 range where you have make, you know, 10 calls to get one fully completed cases. Ew in a lot of and so what we had happening. Nd, again, this is before cell phones get into the mix. What we already had happening very, very best pollsters in the business. Democrat, republican, independent. The best pollsters could not do themselvesob as they were able to do 10, 20, 30 years ago. Hard they er how tried, it wasnt it wasnt as it used to be. And then you introduce cell phones. The better pollsters were taking that into account phones and g cell their samples, i noticed that were reenberg poll we talking about yesterday. 50 of the sample was made up of their cell ed on phones, which, by the way, is expensive to do. And so theyre having to do that ecause increasingly, how many people in this room do not have a landline . Raise your hand . Pretty goodsized number. So certain technologies like calling, not allowed to call cell phones. So you kind of get into that. So then you got into 2012. I mean so all of these were 2012. Ems going into and then in 2012, you had sort of a unique problem. That one of the hings that happens as the esponse rate goes down that pollsters have to weight the umbers, adjust the numbers statistically to make sure they sample. Representative we know that the electorate is female, for52 , 53 example. Theres certain things that you can pretty much count on thingings. Some race but there are things that you can count on. You have to wait to make up for because the Response Rates are so low. A growing provision in the 2012 what is electorate going to look like. Speaking ou generally ad was you had republican pollsters say 2008, when you had inority turnout jumped up so much, when you had young people jump up so much, you had some dynamics. Al turnout but that was the result of first minority nominee for the u. S. Presidency, excitement, the energy that was around barack obama, all of that. And so you had republican assuming thatwere 2008 was a oneshot deal. 2012 turnout dynamic closer to aomething normal president ial turnout. On the other hand, democratic pollsters were saying no, we have a new normal. The country is changing. It is becoming more diverse. Young people really are energized and theyre going to turn out yet again. And this and this and that. So what we started seeing in the 2012 between the two gap between rowing were epublican pollsters getting and believed and what emocratic pollsters were getting and believed. So part of what i was doing was ort of emailing and talking back and forth to pollsters on both sides, just sort of off of the record, what are you seeing . Kind of margins were you seeing . That sort of thing. N a lot of these cases, these are people ive known for 20, 30 years. And i knew they may be right, wrong, but i know theyre not lying to me. Which is not always the case with pollsters. In some cases you know, and there was an honesttogod of opinion between the two sides. And you had to kind of reconcile be right and to who was going to be wrong here. You had e same time, independent pollsters who had had screening questions, to tions that were designed ascertain who is and who isnt likely to vote. Example, historically, asking people how much interest o you have in the upcoming election . Historically, thats been a good question to determine who is and isnt likely to vote. Ell, apparently in 2012, it didnt work. A lot of the traditional uestions that had usually worked didnt work in 2012. Of so you had this sort philosophical difference of what the electorate was going to look to , that was going affectweighting and quotas and hand, you had legitimate people who didnt have the thumb on the scale in direction that were relied traditionally reliable yardsticks that just werent right. You have some results that were, all over the map. And were now beginning to see a nontraditionalof polling. Both the obama and the romney campaigns. Yes, they were doing a certain amount of live interview polling. But they were also going into and dropping 10,000 robo alls into ohio and waiting and saying, okay, i know theyre not getting cell phones. Know, you know. But we can weight around that and correct for that. When they were coming up with based onlytical models something that was based on omething other than live traditional telephone interviewing. What is polling today is changing. Tss live interviews, itss robo polling, and increasingly, polling which ive always been very dismissive of because i never thought you a real representative sample online, but theres some new things that are getting going in and ple, giving people who agreed to be in a in a in a ample, a give them a computer. In exchange for them responding for 5,000 to his 6,000 people around the country so they can draw on those kinds of interviews. All kinds of things are happening but its happening the old traditional working polling isnt as well as it used to. So polling has always been an based on a science. Nd now its beginning to be event and f a mixed less scientifically rigorous because sed to be youre sealing sort of multiple being of polling basically kind of thrown in a cuisinart and blended together numbers which, a lot of subjectivity goes into that. Itss tough. So were in sort of a new world. A a previous life i worked as pollster. It doesnt look like it did back in 1980. Over here . Charlie, thank you. Wondered if you could lay out plan of the next president ial race. Sorry. I want to write off the whole side over here. There should be a disclaimer the rack si rate for prognostications three years in advance is zero. Okay . Pretend that my view is anymore likely to be accurate than anyone elses. I you know, maybe its a easier to look at both sides each side separately. Its a group of questions. Letss think about it. Do a little to decision tree. Hillary clinton . Yes or no . You know,onvention then hillarythe clinton, if yes, maam, then likely to be no. Hillary clinton if no, then biden is more likely to be yes. Absolutely. But there. Then you get into all of these others. In the conventional wisdom in washington seems to be hat she is absolutely going to run. And that politics itss a and the decision politics say she should run. I dont know if shes going to run or not. With the i would agree conventional wisdom that if this decision, olitical the odds are probably very, very high that shed run. I think its going to be a personal and political decision. Nd the personal side is does she feel like running . Does she feel up to it . Personally think she feels a terrific secretary of state. Knows, i would travel 38 times around the world if she the four years and miles and 118, 119 days on the road and all that. But that job really did take its toll on her. The last couple of months that secretary of state, those were fitzically healthwise. Those appear to be very, very months. Does she feel up to it . Yes or no . Know, does she look around and, again, i cant i have no inside information whatsoever. Know, i shes probably maybe shes sitting thinking, you know, she lost her mom a couple of years you nd i think people when lose your remaining parent, you ave a greater sense of mortality than you used to. She had a couple of people she the senate that have had devastating strokes. And distressingly early ages. Oes she you know, does that impact on sort of the Health Consequences . You know . Nd, boy, you know, whens chelsea going to have a kid, come on, come on. All of these thingings, i mean i a nk its going to be political and personal decision. I would put it closer to 50 50. Maybe its 60 40. Maybe itss 40 60. Neighborhood of whether she runs or not. But i would argue the personal really a does she want to do this . Yes or no. Politics would argue strongly for her to do it. Biden biden, i think desperately wants to run. Think realistically, if hillary was running, my guess is odds are he wouldnt. You never know. But, you know, once the has made a arty shift from the baby boom generation to the what is that, generation x . Millennial . Thank you, millennial is after that. X is right. Whats immediately after baby boom . Its x, right . Has moved ectorate with obama or the democratic moved with obama to generation x, maybe they might hillary, but would they go back for joe . I dont know. And if Hillary Clinton doesnt i refused to believe that ere ever going to see an open contest for a president ial nomination with an allmale field. O if hillary doesnt run, you know, do you see kristen hillenbrand. You see amy cloveture. Litz beth warren. Who else might you see out there. And then i think there will be a in both g argument parties for someone whos not in washington for a governor. And so you might say martin a alley and andrew cuomo, John Hickenlooper out there or a sweitzer from montana. You know, you can see someone that says ive never worked in washington. Not a part of that cesspool in washington. You see that out there. Of permentations of where it may go. Of questions kinds up front. Then of the Republican Party, its a question of sort of how can you cut up the righttoright . In the sense that, you know, i one would exactly measure this. Ted cruz, rand paul, rick marco scott walker, christie. U know, chris while i think Chris Christie would be a very, very formidable im al election candidate, not sure how a Chris Christie nomination. Lican anymore than lets say on the democratic side, could a mark democratic nomination . I think that would be very hard. Christie would have a hard time winning a republican nomination. Maybe hell decide to do it. Who i think will be a very strong candidate but i personally dont thin hes going to run. Hed like to run, but i dont think hell run for personal decisions. Enter into all of these things, you know, so thats a very, very long way of saying the hell knows . Fun to ill be a lot of watch. Who have i left out . Like ive left out a whole bunch of people. I dont have my cheat sheet in front of me. [ inaudible ] harkin . I think harkin is retiring. You know, john you know, john thune . What was the story his wife read change and said no, youre not running. I have no idea if thats true or not. But thats actually kind of funny. The old adage that senators nominations, you know . Up until 2008, the last time or elections the al last u. S. Senator to win the presidency was john kennedy. You got to 2008 and, you know, you had two u. S. Senators. That changed . So if i were a party, and just of not controlling for anything else, i would rather a e a governor, i think, as nominee. Someone whos not perceived to e a part of washington and not a part of congress. Now, you know, does that mean that any governor could win . Obviously not. Questions . Sted all oh, wait, theres some twitter questions. Hopefully you pulled out all of the pejorative ones. Michelle are we supposed to read names . To. F youd like asked, gop diggles still in trouble with young white e female and voters. Would it matter in a Midterm Election . The answer to that is it depends i mean, first of all, ts not that in a Midterm Election, all voters are old, conservative nd were liberal. Youre obviously going to have are younger, moderate. Emale and but how many are there going to be. Keep in mind in the house, how to be in here going the lets call it four, five a ate states that make difference in terms of the u. S. Senate. Happen . At so i dont think, you know, yes, republicans to the extent that problems in 2004, those problems just because the nature turnout might be somewhat diminished by a different level a different turnout makeup of 2014. But that doesnt mean that those at any stretch. Midterm elections of amber thomas . Emember Midterm Elections are referendum referenda on incumbent president s. Will obama hurt democrats in 2014 . Look at the polls for, you know . As i pointed out earlier, right hes at an equilibrium point with Approval Rating and in sort of ratings range. , 47 so, you you know, we dont know yet. F i had to bet or will his approval numbers be higher or lower than say 47 . They might be i think id pick the lower side than the upper side. But one thing you have to keep ismind about president obama if use he has such president obama were a stock at the stock market. Would have a you high floor and a low ceiling that hes got a bedrock base of that are going to approve of the job hes doing no matter what. Same time, you have an equally strong level of level of opposition. O his numbers dont typically fluctuate dont typically break out of the certain trading range thats out there. Numbers have not been george w. As say bushs were during tough times. They didnt go to the high point where is bush was in tough times or for previous president s. Kind of job at Approval Ratings that president obama had in october, november year, that would give us a clue. But you have to remember, where arethe key the key races more senate than house. Arethe key the ones that most relevant are alaska, louisiana, north those are entucky, the ones that matter. The are ones not on sunnier side for obama but the shadier side. He lower side of whatever the national Approval Rating is. We have to keep that in mind as well. One more question. One more burning question . Right here. Microphone person . Hang on one more second. A im danny ritchie, im college student, actually. My question is as far as i know, still pending. Florida ting cases in and texas remaking the system. If one of the maps was to get overturned plarply in florida, would you suspect that has any effect on the rates of the house . I i wish i had david wassermann, our house editor here to throw a lifeline to. I not sure first of all, dont know. I dont know which way it would go. Think i remembered david saying that there are only a couple of places that it would probably likely change. I dont really know. Things,he big scheme of 17seat difference. And, you know, thats not going materially changed much by courts overturning maps and in in texas or anywhere else. So i would say it would not ikely have a Significant National impact. And i kind of doubt if it would have that much more than a seat or two either. Ut when i started the newsletter in 1984, one of the things i realized very quickly im not a lawyer. Im very careful on redistricting and all sorts of lawsuits. Thats not where my area of expertise goes. Lane. To stay in my i dont think it would make that much. I wanted to thank united marty ogies and greg and and all of the terrific people at United Technologies for gettogether and National Journal. Covering this. Well have several more of these through this year and next year. Thank you all for coming. Weve got an exciting year whoa, hang on a second. Im told oh when in doubt, the directionings as a reminder, we would love to hear your thoughts and feedback on the event. Encourage you to fill out the event surveys that were placed on your seat. Completed e your surveys to any member of the in aingsal journal team, thank you again. We go. Thank you. [ applause ] on wednesday, orrin hatch of inh up bake the 11th senator u. S. History to cast 13,000 vote unless the senate. The list is robert byrd of West Virginia with more than 18,600. Strom thurmond of South Carolina with over 16,300. Active senator with more votes than senator hatch is vermont. Leahy of on reaching the milestone, Senate Leaders took a moment to mark the occasion. Now, mr. President , on calling orrin hatch. Orrinxt vote cast will be vote. S 13,000th 13,000 a tremendous accomplishment. The state of utah, the constituents and the united country. Nator in our hes this most Senior Member now his seventh term in the United States senate. Before running for the senate, enator hatch received a brigham s degree from young university, and was in private practice for a number of years. Hes a Ranking Member in the finance committee today as we he made a great reputation or himself and chair of the judiciary committee. And we worked together with him as relatives for many years. He served on the health committee, the joint committee on taxation. Eally had a Significant Impact on the United States senate. Hes the member of the board of directors. Hes done amazing thingings his whole career. Number one accomplishment for me, mr. President , is not how times or terms hes served his e senate, but accomplishment for his wonderful family. His wife, elaine, has been a helpmate for him for these many decades. Grandchildren, six children, and now 10 great grandchildren. Although we disagree on hes a person i have Great Respect for. Im so grateful to him over the for always expressing concern about me personally. And his kindness and concern for my family. Congratulations. [ applause ] mr. President. Senior senator for utah will quantity of for the his votes, but for the quality of his work. A man of extraordinary character were happy to have this intermission here to another ate him on yet accomplishment. And a long and outstanding career in the United States senate. [ applause ] taking a look at capitol returns tuesday at noon eastern. On the agenda, a bill to Fund Transportation and housing year, and a ipartisan bill to discuss the doubling of student Loan Interest rates. The latest version of that bill last proved by the Senate Wednesday by a vote of 8118. The Senate Returns monday at resume work on their version of the bill to Fund Department of ransportation and housing and urban development. Heyll start with the nomination of james comy of the fbi. Also on tap for the week, three national o the nominations board. You can watch the house on cspan, the senate on cspan 2. Jack doyle, what is the pop history dig . Well, this is a website. Ts really its the history of pop eurolar culture. Itss a collection of stories, hther, on the