Transcripts For CSPAN Future Of Lebanon 20140303

Asian area. That is an important part of it as well. Third, i come to a point that is often overlooked. Professor dobbins made an important point in his address and that is to keep focused on the economic aspects of the future of this relationship. Direct investment. These connection between Central Asian economies and south asian economies, the interest of American Companies and some of the important resources that are tore to work with afghans bring to world markets. The economic aspects of this, whether it is the new silk road, or whether it is promoting afghan businesses, i think it is something americans will be interested in being part of this relationship. Something i dont think that needs much detail is to keep ,ocused on counter extremism not just counterterrorism. Afghanistan is still a very important part of that area as well. The region, economic issues, counter extremism, all of these are part of our foundations for a future relationship. Ofin, i thank the organizers this for the opportunity. I look forward to the rest of the panel and your comments and questions. Thank you. Claire. I would like to start by thanking the organizers for all that they do and for this timely discussion. Ive been asked to focus my remarks on governance. I would like to draw a few lessons. Shortly after the tragedy of here, afew miles from few days after 9 11, a small group was convened. It was reflected that it was likely there would be an invasion, that the u. S. Would use military force. It was likely that the then existing incumbent government would collapse. The key question was going to be, how do afghan individuals and groups agree on the rules of the game by which they will govern that society . It seemed that was the right question to ask then and perhaps it is the right question to ask today. This question was put to task. We know it had many flaws. To the extent that it worked, i think it is because it constructed a process for building a consensus between afghans on this question. There were successes and failures along the way. I would like to highlight some of the successes in the spirit that we focus that afghan has far too much in the negatives and not enough on the real achievements that afghans have made. Part of this, and many would argue that in fact there was a political settlement. The settlement was on the rules of the game embedded in the constitution and the laws that fall under that constitution. That was a result of a very intense process of bringing together afghanistan citizens from around the country come to thisdelegates, second constitutional commission. Many were implemented on working in this room. While i think there is some legitimate debate about the changes that are needed, why and large it remains a document that most afghans believe is the right framework for how that country should be governed. In fact, many of the amendments people do seek are already in the constitution. It is a matter of implementation of the constitution. For example the constitution itself mandates the election of mayors at the city level. The second feature of the last decade that many reforms were completed. Not only that, afghanistan had a considerable basis of governance capability in place when i arrived in the early days of 2002. I was astonished to find, especially because ive been reading documents that there was nothing there and there was no capacity. Completely the reverse. With 240,000 Civil Servants in place across the country, yes, they had endured by then almost two decades of war. There are resource constraints and so on, but the capacity was there. Over the last decade a number of config a number of reforms completed. I dont think the issue is one of capacity or capability. The successes have been well documented, so i wont go in depth. There was currency reform, the health program, the building of the National Solidarity program. Governance is not something abstract, it is how resources are used for the public process. How is the Education System builds . Getting those policy frameworks right. I think there is a good news story here. It is all credits to the afghans. Sometimes International Organizations have helped, sometimes they have stood in the way. Overall, the story is one of success. Afghanistan has climbed higher than any country over the world on human on the Human Development index. It is a remarkable achievement. 80 of the country believes that their government is in control in their area, and the trust is extraordinarily high. When we look at what works, i think we can visit some of the attributes. It was evenhandedness in treatment of groups across the country, space for communities to be involved, private sector to be involved. Governance is not about building the state from the topdown only. It is just as much about creating a policy frameworks about the communities and private sector can be involved. There were successes and also many mistakes. We should be cognizant of those. Extent, theyome were in large measure that parts of the population began to lose trust in the process. From my perspective, that happened around 20042005. Historians will debate the reasons, but i suspect only one of those. Internally, certain segments of the population began to feel, right or wrong, that they had been treated unfairly. They began to look to other means to protect them selves or to realize their interest. Externally, some of the pledged not to interfere in the politics. They pledged to support afghanistans process. They began to turn to other avenues to protect their interest. I think you saw it unraveling in the trust between states and nations and people. What does this tell us for looking forward . I agree with our keynote speaker and the panelists that the enormous achievements, election. The that, i think that democracy is not just about elections, but about the days and years in between elections. It is not just about one liter, it is about a team of leaders. As we look at those countries around the world that have transitioned successfully from conflict and from difficult regimes to better governance, this has all been delivered by a group of leaders. Ive had the pleasure to interview some of them. Is about al say it great man, sometimes a great woman, but it has always been about a team of people who worked together across geographic boundaries, across ethnic or religious boundaries. I think one of the key questions is going to be, can there be and will there be an inclusive politics . Can there be a mandate that all groups can agree upon . Is a team that can deliver this . Can there be a National Discussion or dialogue that citizens agree on . There has been talk of the need for a national dialogue, but as my friends have pointed out, we are already having one every day. More with agree ambassador grossman and ambassador dobbins that the region is so important. If there is to be peace and stability, it is as much about regional politics, of countries committing to letting the afghans have a chance at building the future that they have so desperately worked for and need. The question of the rules of the , at the heart of the suspend to be the Foreign Policy of the next Afghan Administration towards its neighbors. Together, these elements, the internal consensus building and the regional process of are probably the keys to peace and stability. Perhaps we need an adjustment in the way that we conceptualize the way we conceive the Peace Process. It may not be that a good deal, that cutting of a deal that will lead to stability, it will be and carefulins processes of building consensus and trust between countries, between peoples and within the country that will deliver the enduring peace and stability. That it isy much also the rules of the game that governance of the economy will be so important. Understandably, taxpayers in the u. S. And europe are feeling maxed out on the contributions that they have made to the region. Enormous amounts of resources have been spent on the country. Many of them used well, not all of them used well. Going forward, those resources will be at a lower level. As soon as afghanistan can generate the resources, the revenue to underwrite its own stability, the better. On the short term, the bridge that will be needed from external commitments to sustain that. It is the question of what the ifc and the world bank called enabling environment. Theres not a shortage of money. They are enormously wealthy. They are regional investors. They would like to put money in, but can they trust in the rules of the game and the rules of law to do that. Minerals are not going to be a magic bullet, but oil and Gas Resources that are being discovered recently are quite immense. Inis not inconceivable that 1015 years, they can more than underwrite the cost of sustaining said sustaining stability. In conclusion, lets move from thinking of quick fixes and magic bullets to understanding that peace and stability and governance were at the heart of peace and stability. It is the many small wins that will deliver this for afghans. The question is can the politics deliver something that the middle 90 of afghans who order and law and want that feature and want that future can realize it. You very much, andrew. It is a great pleasure to be here. I want to join you and others in thanking u. S. Ip and others in sponsoring this. It is humbling to sit up here with the three people who i used to work for. Through mysuffer being part of their teams. When i first went to afghanistan ,n 2002 to be deputy chief ambassador dobbins told me afghanistan would be something very different to anything else ive ever done. He was 100 right. It continues to be so. He also told me it would be different from what anybody else thought. That was rationed as well t was precedent as well cient as well. I met so Many Americans who had served in afghanistan. Some believed when what theyre doing and some didnt, but they all believe in their country. They have all done a great job of which their nation should be very proud. That is where i would like to start. I would like to speak on the Afghan Security forces, but i would like to start off a little more broadly. People talked about the fact that recent polling shows that two thirds of the American People think that going into afghanistan was a mistake. Interestingly enough, two thirds of the Afghan People think that the u. S. Effort to help them has been a great success. That is something the American People should be proud of. It is something that has been lost in all the frothing about and president karzai saying this and back and forth. The fundamental successes have been laid out here. I want to stress particularly from the military side, that the building of the afghan army, police and intelligence agencies has been a tremendous success. An area in the world were building an institution is a huge challenge, making any progress is a huge challenge, even if things are going well, even if there is peace. Even if there are sufficient resources, even if there is Cooperation Among regional countries, such a task would be hard. When andrew was in kabul in 2002 and alex thier as well, i was on the other side of the debate. It is interesting that 12 years in manyre we are taking ways the same view, that we have made a lot of progress. The progress has been worth the investment that we have made and it is a very serious statement to make. It means it is worth the cost of thousands of american lives. To sit up here and say that is not seeing something very important that i think is missed by the dialogue and the discourse to the American People. Of thelomatic editor bbc, john simpson, has been covering afghanistan for over 30 years. I went back to f you went back to afghanistan and did a story. What he found was 180 degrees different from what people in washington and london think is the case. In fact, afghanistan is succeeding. Afghans believe they are succeeding. Ambassador grossman mentioned that as i was in afghanistan two months ago in september and met scores of afghan young people under the age of 30, brilliant people who were preparing to live the rest of their lives in their country. They were universal in giving thanks to the United States and our International Partners. They recognized how lucky they are, the benefits of gotten from the sacrifices, and they are prepared to fight, whether in the military and theyre fighting for their country, or whether they are in civil. Ociety building businesses they are ready to sacrifice. Many of these people could be somewhere besides afghanistan. They are there because of the sacrifices and the effort, and what the United States and our allies and partners have put into that. Topics i wanted to address was our security agreement. The me take a moment to pay tribute to those who have worked on that area we have one of them here, several of them in fact. I went to single out ambassador hakimi. He led the negotiations. They are very collegial, professional, and have resulted seesat i believe everyone as an agreement that is both and that best interest of the Afghan People in government and the people of the United States. Ambassador,k you, and i would like everyone to give them a round of applause. Thank you. [applause] i also want to mention m bassett i would also want to mention American Ambassador jim warlick. ,fghanistan faces challenges and all of us are aware of those challenges. The odds are very much in favor of success with the bsa in place. Will it be in place echo the afghan president ial candidates, a number of them i spoke to in kabul are in favor of starting ae bsa. I think it is certainty that it will be signed. Whether or not karzai signs it is irrelevant. We need to make sure we plan effectively for him not signing it and moving forward. I truly hope that any of the ambassador dobbins mentioned that might occur if there is delay are mitigated effectively by the great planning capacity that our military and state department have. I dont believe theres is any need for any particular cost as long as we keep our eye on the , as is the topic of this panel. In turning to this cop to , is topic of Afghan Security have visited afghanistan 20 or 30 times and lived there for a couple of years. When andrew, alex and i were working on afghanistan in the earlier decade, the afghan did a tremendous job. We turned over lead security responsibility to the Afghan Security forces. Many people outside of predicted that would not be successful. But the f that the afghans would lose significant territory in the districts would be overrun, some capitals might be threatened. None of that happened. The taliban did not gain any ground during the last 12 months. In fact they lost ground in some areas. No District Centers were lost, no provincial capitals were threatened. The taliban do maintain the power to inflict serious damage on the Afghan People, and they have continued to do so. Taliban attacks have killed hundreds of thousands of afghan citizens, primarily noncombatants. We have also targeted officials, including some of the female Police Officers that you saw in the video earlier. They have targeted foreigners, they have targeted afghan officials throughout the country. That is going to continue as long as the taliban continue, until there is a Peace Agreement as ambassador grossman repeated. However, in order for the country to stay in one piece and move forward with elections the way they are, in order for the economy to prosper, despite predictions it was going to crash, the basic security efforts that the Afghan Army Police and intelligence agencies are going to Carry Forward needs to be successful. All the indications are that it will. Unfortunately, because of the ability of the taliban to inflict violence, there will be many casualties. The afghan police, particularly, but also the army have suffered high casualties and continues to do so. Nevertheless, in a story that is rarely understood or told here, afghans continue to flock to those services, even though the danger is high. The people in afghanistan are willing to sign up to be in the police, the army and intelligence services, to serve their country. The difference they dont do so because they think afghanistan is going to fail, they do so because they think it will succeed. They do not do it because of the money they are paid, and it is essential that they are paid, it is because afghanistan is their home and they want to protect it. The fact that we in the United States, particularly we in the u. S. Military have helped build institutions that have allowed the country and the people of the country to move forward with what they want, which in many cases is exactly what we in the United States and our partners want for the future of afghanistan. It is a great tribute to those afghans, but also those who have supported it. With that, i will close and turn it over to the next speaker. Thank you, david heard alex . Thank you. First of all, i want to start out again by thanking the organizers for this event. The Common Thread that runs ,hrough the images up there institutions and individuals have demonstrated an incredible amount of devotion to what we are here assembled to talk about today. That is incredibly important, not only for afghanistan, but for the United States, that we have institutions that carry these burdens. I also want to say how honored i am to be sitting up here with everybody. I have served in one way or another with everybody here. In fact, when i first went to pakistan in 1993, i was given the name Andrew Wilder to look up as one of the few people who really knew what was going on at the time. Although there are more people now who know what is going on, andrew remains about the best. I am more confused than ever. I also want to acknowledge the incredible work of who have been stalwarts for their nation. You sit here not only representing yourselves, but the incredible work and partnership that we have had with the Afghan Government. It is great to see you. I also want to acknowledge three folks here. Steve hadley, congratulations on taking over the board chairmanship. I know that those of us who have worked here and love and our product is institution are thrilled that you have stepped up to do that. Jim dobbins is someone who has forht us all now, going on at least 15 years, for how we need to think about peace and security and that u. S. Involvement. The fact that you have stepped back into this role , there could not be a better person and a better perspective. I want to acknowledge bill taylor, who i saw walking in. Bill is also i met bill first in afghanistan in 2002. He remains to be one of the best examples of a diplomat and a boss that i have ever had. When i traveled to afghanistan ago,he first time 21 years i would come to witness what i believe is one of the greatest foreignpolicy mistakes that our country has ever made. That was the abandonment of hanistan and the gradual or sometimes not gradual destruction to afghanistan, its communities, its infrastructure, its relationships with its neighbors, that we are still climbing out of today. Have come over my career, watched conflict unfold slowly, and development unfold slowly. Conflict is much more efficient. It costs a lot less to perpetrate. Decades of understanding that were built up between communities in afghanistan, for example in the 50 years , wereing soviet invasion undermined severely and rapidly by a few massacres that we are still talking about today. S that took grid years to build, by cutting down a few lines and knocking down poles paradoxically, conflict imposes a far greater cost. If we had not seen the lost 30 years of development in afghanistan, imagine where we would be today. Gross domestic product today stands at 20 billion. The incredible story we have heard over and over again this morning is that it rose fourfold just in the last nine years, which is an incredible change. That is 15 billion a year of economic activity. When you multiply that over decades and you think about the greaterhey are far far than any amount of investment that we have made on the civilian side. Conflict costs much less to perpetrate, and it has a far far greater cost to our own society and to afghanistan. Greater than those numbers, though, are the lost generations of afghans who have not had the basicunity to enjoy the tenets of Human Dignity peace and security, sufficient food, access to education, access to health care. Afghanistan, i am told, a decade ago, a was excepted from the ways of globalization. It has brought hundreds of millions of people from extreme poverty and into the Global Economy that has brought them to enjoy greater rights and the opportunities that democracy affords. Jobrrent job my current as a head of policy planning and learning for usaid causes me to look across countries to see what is working and what is not working. Repeat a few of the things that you have already heard varied i think they are so fundamentally important. When we look at the losses that afghanistan have suffered over this. Of time, the first question that occurs to us is can we actually do something about it . Can the instruments we have as United States government, as an International Community, as an Afghan Government, can we change some of these conditions . Can we write some of these t some of can we righ these wrongs . The astonishing fact that we have come to learn in the last few years is that not only were we able to move the needle in afghanistan corrective leg, we have been able to fundamentally change a lot of the basic conditions in that country. Ambassador dobbins spoke about the fact, which i still find phenomenal, that the Human Development report last year found that afghanistan has made more crop has made more progress than any country on earth in the last decade dated granted, that is going from some of the lowest baselines, but that progress was not inevitable. I, and many of you have heard this, i love the story about what happened in Public Health in afghanistan. It is remarkable in a few ways. Afghans did not have access to health care in 2002. Six percent of afghans could walk within an hour to basic health care. We are not talking about the mayo clinic, we are talking about doctors and nurses who, with minimal training for things that are literally pennies perch your, make the difference between life and death for mother and child a mother in childbirth, or a child under the age of five. By changing that rate of access 60 ,six percent to over and by making a decision to invest through Afghan Government institutions, not that reading parallel systems, but working together with the Afghan Government to create a Health Network that could reach over 60 of its people in a country where it is hard to reach people , the change has been phenomenal. Afghanistans Life Expectancy went from 45 years to over 60 years in less than a decade. That sort of progress is almost unprecedented, but it is also explainable because of the steps that we took to choose basic services over Expensive Services , to choose going through the Afghan Government rather than setting up their little systems. To choose focusing on mothers and children where life could be saved. That impact will resonate throughout afghanistan for years to come. A similar story in education. We made a decision to focus on basic education, a decision that was often criticized because you need to focus on longterm education as well. But the fact that there were only 900,000 afghans, almost all boys in school in 2002, at 8 million children today, 40 of them are girls, literacy rates fore 2005 have risen 50 both boys and girls. These are longterm development investments. They are not things that change the economy overnight, they are not things that change the political system overnight. Invest inchosen to term,things over the long we have an afghanistan today in 2014 that is fundamentally changed. The last story that i want to tell on that note is about revenue. I think it is so important. The Afghan Government needs to be able to pay for itself increasingly, and the services that it delivers over time. It cant do it today. Since 2004, Afghan Government revenue correction has gone up 1000 . Afghanistan last year surpassed the 2 billion mark in terms of revenues raised, so it means that they are raising more of their own revenues than the United States government is supplying in assistance, which is a fantastic watershed for them to have passed through. All of the stories, however, are not just about those particular games gains, which i think is about the development of afghan institutions. We can and must and will continue to support afghanistan through this transitional process. It will be increasingly afghans and afghan revenues and afghan institutions that will carry this burden. There is no greater example of this at the moment in my opinion than looking at afghanistans electoral traditions. If you have followed the elections since the first one, there electoral institution, some of the great things that ambassador dobbins laid out complaints and where they are and how may people registered for the election, these elections are being run by entirely thist time around. That is a great sign. Afghanistan does remain among one of the poorest countries in the world. I think what everybody is trying to understand is what comes next. Of ourf all, as many colleagues have said up here, i cant emphasize the fundamental importance of a peaceful and Successful Transition this year. All Development Progress in afghanistan fundamentally rests upon the success of this second, while there are many uncertainties facing afghanistan, there are a few things that we know. First of all, afghanistan has fundamentally changed. When you look at its use, its education, access to information, mobile phones, a thee of democracy, women in economy, women in the political arena, i believe firmly, having watched afghanistan so intensively over the last 20 years that those are all genies that will be hard to put back into the bottle. Somebody said on this panel, i think it was ambassador grossman, i believe that afghans will fight for what they have theyd this decade, because have to. Ultimately, it is their lives, not ours, that hang in the balance. I think the transition in many says represents the afghan truly taking responsibility for many of these things. But i think you will see is that there are millions of afghans, many of whom were not alive, most of whom were in fact were they see a different future for themselves, for their region. And for their changed that ias believe we know has been proven by the statistics that i and out is we know that we and the afghan overnment and institutions can this sfully deliver in environment. There are concerns about whether our assistance is still going to accountable going forward, whether we will be able to track the dollars and measure results have impact. But i think that has already demonstrated. So much of the work we do today s directly through afghan institutions. Most of our international artners rely mostly on afghans for their staffing. When we talk about the great griculture problems we have that is not americans planting working for afghans international and local organizations, working with farmers and Afghan Government to make the changes happen. Deliver e been able to Critical Evidence of success that can Carry Forward. And l thing we know no one more than jim dobbins is us knowing this rapid withdrawal of american be one in this time will f the most critical factors in afghanistans failure. Maintain stan do not some strong degree of through onal support this transitional period, the ncrease in likelihood that afghanistan will become more tragedy, more conflict, more unstable, goes up dramatically. So, that leads me to my final amazingly i is that hink in afghanistan and the incredible work that has been done to put in a strategic with rship agreement afghanistan and the united the b. S. A. Egotiate and incredible display of nternational commitment demonstrated in chicago and istanbul in the summer of 2012 when the entire world after a decade of incredible investment and said in afghanistan and we to ng it keep going keep going because this investment is making a it is that nd important to the world. We can not lose sight of the taking the long view that we often get that wrong. Make that nt longterm commitment once the cameras turn away. Wait for an election and then look elsewhere. Back it 1991 and its when america had one of most amazing Foreign Policy cold war and he entering the postcold war wo d world. Instead of seizing that success and building on it, not responsible solely for anything in that period, but act. Iled to and that action has cost us dearly. Us dearly. All of so, i believe that the investments that we have planned building e afghanistans economy and its capacity ing of its people and continue to its own a path for selfsustain ability is a that now pportunity more than ever we have to recommit to. Thank you. Applause] thank you. In re trying to pack a lot today so we dont have much time for question and answer. About 15 minutes where we can take questions from the audience. Microphones that can be handed out if you identify yourself. To keep youra plea questions and comments short so hat we have time for as many people to ask questions as possible. So please identify yourself. Theill start there close to microphone. Is the nk afghanistan only democracy where there are which are l parties so crucial for any democracy. They were appen when. Elping afghanistan why didnt they help them to have Political Parties . We will take three or four uestions and come back to the panel. In the very back. Global witness. About the cut n in humanitarian and Afghan National Security Forces aid. I know there is a lot of aid moved around between accounts ut what impact do you think that will have in practical terms and messaging . In the front. Alex, i appreciated your comments on development. I wonder if you could follow the importance of development in afghanistan in erms of regional context and security considerations. We have time for one more in back there. All have great insight. The question is for the panel to respond. Peace your input on building in afghanistan and how and on ssist the off peace talks . Do people favor them and what is he role of the u. S. In the peace talks and how they can continue their involvement in the talks. I think why dont we come back to the panel. Political parties, peace talks, cuts in assistance and the development question. Alex, we will start with you. I think there are three major going to boost afghanistan in terms of terms ent generation, in of income, and regional developme development. Is agriculture. Griculture is enormously important to averages and the greatest generator of employment. Fundamental in afghanistan which has been traditionally one food insecure countries in the world. But afghanistans agriculture so untapped. His is one reason why us aid has invested so heavily in it. Is also he potential about trade and export. Regionali think of the of lopment context afghanistan as a trading partner for the region and a place where the region can trade with each other is fundamentally important. Advances ineen huge this in terms of infrastructure but also customs revenue. About Afghan Government revenue it is customs which has been the Fastest Growing sector for the Afghan Government. The region that afghanistan is in is one of the most economically frustrated in the world. The great dream of trade between central asia and eventually through and up into is growing butnd remains stalled. To open up those trade pathways will be, i fundamentally transformative for afghanistan and the region. I wanted to g that say, which is not related to the regional thing but so one thing u is blgs aid getting afghan women in the economy. That is half of the people of have not been t economic actors. Omen have Great Potential in afghanistan particularly also in terms of the agricultural diversifying the agricultural economy. Greatest me of the Growth Potential that afghanistan will see is by economic meaningful opportunities for women in afghanistan. David. Say a couple of words about the cuts in assistant, civilian. Nd those cuts and people here use and risk. Cost let me put a face on that. The cuts in assistance mean more will die and particularly more afghans. I was in afghanistan a short and i visited a hospital and saw a 2yearold whose, same age as my grandson, her foot blown off by an i. E. D. Despairing were about her future because the future of a handicapped person afghanistan is difficult. There will be more childrens feet blown to much and more policemen and soldiers child abuse of the cuts in assistance. Our assistance less effectively that makes the bility of the people we are assisting more susceptible to death and injury and more people side as alex n pointed out were able to deliver assistance more effectively. The achievements in public ealth alex talked about are tremendous going from 6 to 60 of eople within an hour healthcare is a tremendous accomplishment. To continue that needs the resources that the u. S. And other countries have pledged to afghanistan. That bring our ability to carry out the pledges into serious question bring our ability to support their Security Forces to effective are leading to real pain, suffering and death right now. One comment on the question assistance, i think it is both the question of the eality of what money can buy and it is the question of the that was commitment sent to the afghans. Afghan ssed what the have scanned we are asking the an enormous sume burden for the sovereignty of their own country. He question is whether their partners will continue to send the messages of commitment and confidence. The Economic Cooperation the endorsed it and created a new office to follow this up. Is incredibly important initiative. Urope after world war ii found a way for the countries within europe to cooperate with each other. Ut the heart was cooperation between france and germany and one of the questions for the south asia reason is to thistheir equivalent and one is trade and transportation that alex from ned getting goods china to europe. But there are others and one other to highlight is the of energy and power. Uring meetings at davos regional political and Business Leaders came together and what they got excited about was when that some of the Central Asian republics that are at two to six india and ometer but pakistan is 13 to 16 and that is for trade. Portunity and there are others that are eing discovered but in that searcher Regional Cooperation is what would help create the and tives for peace stability. Very much. U let me see if i can dress the process of the peace such as it is. I talked about this a little bit before the session. I would make four points. One, it is really important to said about id intervention to start and fighting here the taliban who continue to attack and attack and attack. Said, mostly noncombatants but terrible National Afghanistan Security Forces and kill and maim american and international firsts. This is an enemy out there fighting and i think that any of a Peace Process has to begin with the question hether they are interested in doing some kind of arrangement and making reconciliation work afghanistan. Ple of secondly, i think it is worth i can out loud that understand, everyone should nderstand, why afghans and especially afghanistan women or entrepreneurs worry about the paes process because they worry performance decisions to have a econciliation process which might chip away some of the important progress made the last years. 13 that is why it is extremely beortant it seems to me this a conversation among afghan was about what they want in terms of reconciliation. Can put a parentheses here said and claire noted, it is extremely important that make their progress inside of this increasingly important economy. One of the natural barriers in a going backwards reconciliation process is to have powerful women who have economic interests in afghanistan so they can speak for themselves about what their will be like. Fourth point to keep coming back to the point ack of what is the role for the International Community here and states, arly the united that is a clear one and that is to open the door, make it afghans to talk to other afghans about the plight averages. Reconciliation is not about the United States or International Arrangement ing an for the afghanistan people but afghans making arrangements that they wish to see. Since you have to make your own decision but it strikes me as is a conflict that isnt going to end militarily. There will be some political end this and reconciliation is important. I said in my intervention be in favor,son to reconciliation is the reason to in favor of american and International Forces in fghanistan afterjanuary 1, 2015 because the taliban is watching what we are going to do. Arrive at t going to this voluntarily. There has to be some effort made terrorist group. It is the question of the end conditions. You have to make sure there is a break with al qaeda. Hat there is an ending of this violence against the Afghan People and also there is a supports then that kinds of governance and our itutional effort friends were talking about and women. Ly the role of there is a role of this and huge questions but it is important voices to say so much of what we said on this is an afghanistan responsibility that we have the privilege to support. Me tackle the political question. Democracy will function fell you have to get olitical parties stronger and upgrading more effectively in erms of disaggregating and organizing interests to make parliament function. I think the original sin from my goes back to 2004 when the Voting System that was to go too much into the weeds but the single n vote one of the irst publications was highly critical about choosing that precisely because it works against the interests of works in parties and the interests of independent candidates. It was a deliberate choice if you want to keep the executive and g and powerful weak ineffective the single nontransferable system is a doing effective way of this. I think that is more widely recognized now but the dilemma get elected they are the ones in power and have n incentive to preserve that system which is why now it is a recognized problem it is reverse. To but i think it is an area where there does need to be more raising and Political Parties need to get more organized and improve their own efforts to get that ystem changed in future election husband. Unfortunately, we have run out of time. That we dont have more time for this session. We are going to have a coffee break. But i just wanted to end again y thanking everyone in our panel. I also wanted to recognize ambassador ambassadors who were abably afghanistan in washington over the years at a very critical time in afghanistans history. Panelists. Thank you. Is not polyanish ut lets have a balanced assessment of what has been achieved and know the threats manufacturing forward because if you only focus on the and have a narrative of defeat i think that fuels the isntment that we should give up that fuels the sentiment that we should leave. Price when a heavy we did that 20 years ago. Lets in the repeat that mistake. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2014] on the next washington josh rogen looks at the latest updates in ukraine, syria and other international stories. Followed by the wall street Journal Health care policy report reporter. About the impact of the healthcare law on small insurance that offer to employees. Hen the brookings institutions discuss efforts by the Obama Administration to create manufacturing hubs around the country. Washington journal live with your calls, tweets and facebook a. M. Eastern on cspan. The ficials from around country gather monday for the conference in washington, d. C. Include the h. U. D. Secretary and former utah overnor and 2012 president ial candidate John Huntsman and you live coverage beginning 1 30 p. M. Eastern on cspan 3. Tim kane on syria live in lebanon. There is two hours. I want to call this meeting subcommittee to order and welcome all here especially our expert witnesses who we will here testimony from. Of aenate is in the middle vote on a veterans bill that will take time but i want to folks being e of here. We will proceed to a first panel a second panel with questions and this is a very important topic. I just returned from a trip in lebanon with angus king of maine. We went together because we serve together on committees. Fortune Relations Committee and he is on the intelligence committee. E took a trip where we spent time in israel, palestine, lebanon and egypt. We were ays i think probably most excited about the trip to lebanon because neither there. Ad been we have strong feelings about the situation there but we felt needed to ground those feelings and thoughts with some reality check. Of that trip i do feel very strongly that the hearing is apt. The syrian conflict about which put so much time in foreign elations and Armed Services is for syria but in the american ress and telling of the story about syrian effects lebanon is often an overlooked neighbor about spect to stories the syrian crisis. Lebanon has been extremely welcoming syrian refuse and it has paid the highest price in terms of stability and security of the country. Lebanon deserves our attention and continued investment and partnership partnership, and if we do that the right way it will be good and good for y regional and tkpwhrobl security. 2013 senator king and i in separate congressional jordan. Sited turkey and when we were in turkey and ordan we saw, experienced, visited refugee camps and talked bout the strain of the Syrian Refugees on u. S. Partners but it as important to go back to lebanon to have the discussions and what we saw was challenging. He population of lebanon is a little over four million and there is nearly a million, by millionounts american a yrian refugees in lebanon from syria on top of refugees from palestine. Wrapping your head around the gentlemen refuse population refuse jae refugee population 25 american 80 million refugees coming to the United States that with be 25 of our population. Imagine how many challenges that would pose and hat size of refugee population poses many significant indicts for lebanese civil society. King and i set up this visit a couple of months but fewity of time the r fewity of timing government of lebanon was able to form after many months of gridlock. Many of you know the challenge of forming a government among with cabinet ions ministries in a suffer ratio to parliamentary approval is very difficult. We had a chance to be the first meetessional delegation to with the new Prime Minister and president after the formation of government. We offer congratulations on the tprpl makes and we discussed relativelyf them the prompt path for president ial keep that nd need to path on time and need for a minister nd strong steel source statement the that establishes key priorities for this government in this phase. Atiation with rm president ial elections and on a d by parliament twothirds vote, carrying out of residential elections with parliamentary elections to follow should help in some of the challenges that result from the Syrian Refugees. Ut that will not be at all sufficient. There must be much more work done by International Partners if uding the United States we care about the stability of lebanon. During our time there we met not only with elected officials but any n. G. O. s administering aid to Syrian Refugees. We met with members of ministers and cabinet in the newly formed government talk about rator to refugee issues. What we found was again and even if we would ask questions about lebanese a short issues within time the aepnswer would end up the syrian syria and challenge, not only the refugees oming in but how the decision of the hezbollah organization to articipate so actively and visibly in the Syrian Civil War as increased violence largely sunni shia violence in lebanon. It was a challenging trip. One morning we were leaving the American Embassy to go have a eeting with president suleiman and a bomb went off in downtown beirut where we were. Ou could hear it and see the smoke. This was an everyday event to sadly. We assumed our meeting with the canceled. With be if it were hear a bomb going exploding aorcycles bomb that killed many in part of a meeting ar where the president with say i have my hands full i dont want to have president suleiman wanted us to see the challenge that he was dealing with. So, the meeting continued. In the midst of the meeting he interrupted with phone calls it try to talk to the iranian ambassador, this was near an mbing iranian cultural center. Ing to see thereak normality and. Visitors the challenge that much pose for the everyday life those caught in the crossfire random nce occurring in which is. On the question of syria i think that u. S. E diplomatic energy notwithstanding we are not happy path that the situation taking. A is the United States is the largest rovider to refuse japanese and it is through the u. N. And distributed through worthy n. G. O. s. The largest provider the humanitarian aid and involved in around the eventual destruction of chemical engaged in efforts at the u. N. Security it find a path forward. Deeply engaged we are not happy with the process or progress. So, that continues to pose challenges that could be of nature for lebanon. Eeks to go i called for a resolution after meeting with victims of sill war in syria to provide more aggressive insertion of humanitarian aid nto syria, not just the provision of aid to refugees outside the country but the inside syria. Adopted a st week resolution overcoming russias propensity to veto with the of china humanitarian aid resolutions. There was a little breakthrough but whether it is r not will be determined by whether aid is delivered in a more significant way. If we are to try to tackle the and be a good partner and ally in lebanon we need to delivery of aid in syria, provision of aid for a refugees and find path to ceasefire in the civil war. During our visit to lebanon we the opportunity to visit forces and explore the ways u. S. Is working with forces. Ed we found out a haoigh degree of satisfaction with that. Many armed forces leaders had done training in the united with u. S. Military leaders. I would say throughout the the n probably in lebanon degree of satisfaction in the military relationship was highest. The the armed forces has a significant challenge because in ome critical areas the armed forces are weaker than the hezbollah militia. Tore is an unusual situation contemplate from an american standpoint where it would not be imaginable that a militia of the United States with be more forces. L than the armed that challenges the concept you have about the strength of armed firsts. Every day in numbers ways the American Military leadership lebanon g with the necessa knees armed lebanese arpldz increase capacity. E found a haoigh degree of satisfaction and we want to make sure we continue this. Because it is not just the al qaeda and but other extremist groups we worry about. They must not be able to a base of operation in lebanon. We want to ensure u. S. Policies remain strong. We. Like the plight in lebanon is an told story of the Syrian Civil War. Introduce the first panel the other reason to have lebanese American Population is such a strong part of america. Ne reason you do hearings like there is not only to cast a part of the world where a story hasnt been told honor american tradition and heritage is such that they have connection in often and they are deeply engaged in lebanon. Lebanese american contribution whether the foundation of st. Judes which is a spectacular story is something that is notable. When we have significant our population chunks of our population that care about their own homes that reason for the United States to be focused as well. Both because of the critical of lebanon in the middle east and because of this strong in nese American Population this country we decided to hold this hearing and focus on ways continue states can to be partner but find strategies and ways it be better partners. Panels with us. T Ranking Member i expect will be here when the vote on the done. Ans bill is when he arrives i will ask if he as opening comments and i may interrupt the testimony. The first panel is two folks i will introduce them both and ask each statements. Ning Larry Silverman is acting deputy state forsecretary of near eastern affairs. Prepping me l in kaine. Ator Vice President badens special advisor for europe and russia. To ocused on issues related the middle east in the first of is career serving in jordan, syria and washington as special adviso advisor. We are also pleased to be joined today by Major General mike plehn the principal director in the office of secretary of defense for policy. He helps execute defense policy, strategy for ity 15 middle east nations. We are happy to have him with us. I would like to ask mr. Silverman first to offer your testimony. Accept your written testimony into the testimony. Try to summarize within five then we will get if question and answer after plehn. L thank you for inviting me to testify on the situation in policy toward that very important country and volatile region. The hearing comes at an important moment. Public discussion of lebanon as say in the United States is often focused primarily on the refugee the syrian flows into that country. That crisis that you witnessed recent d during your visit to lebanon represents an urgent imperative need. Lebanon faces broader issues. The United States is helping lebanon respond to the lebanons because future affects important u. S. Nterests in the region which are obvious by the geographical nature of the location and neighborhood. The syrian conflict threatens lebanon to establi establishes lasting stability. Formation of a government by the Prime Minister ater 10 months of gridlock is welcome new element for the lebanon necessary people and opportunity for the united to work d lebanon together to achieve shared goals. The lebanese people deserve a that responds to their needs and protects their interests as it works to gain a of confidence from parliament and begins to exercise power it is in one the better than predecessor. Nearly all political factions re represented in the careful balance. March 14 faction is in the government. Confidence the cabinet ministerial a pills statement. How we work with this government its policy and action. The next hurdle is the end of suleimans term on may 25. President ial elections should be time, freely and and wuithout foreign interference. We hope it will ensure there is vacancy. Ential i think you already know jamaiunique security problems, stockpile beyond control, need for all groups to be disarmed. Existing ow that political and sectarian differences have been intense fiduciary by the war in syria. Hezbollah entered that war agreement of others. Is on behalf of hezbollah dragging the lebanese people into a war. Of acting posture inside the state when it is vacant but step being outside arms and to use violence when it wishes is extremists and fighting the assad regime have lebanonthe fight inside with terrorist attacks that have killed and injured scores. Amidst this the Lebanese Forces ave acted to maintained security. Hree days ago two lebanese soldiers were killed in a suicide bombing. The l. A. F. Has had counterterrorism successes capturing some high profile terrorists including a for an Al Qaeda Affiliated groups responsible bombings. L suicide these incidents highlight the danger from hezbollah support for the assad regime and extremists ent whether from lebanon, islamic abdullah raq and brigades. The critical material and to the we provide l. A. F. And internal security builds their capacity it conduct against extremists, terrorists and criminal organizations. Colleague will offer details. We are trying to increase our financing to ry modernize it and build capabilities particularly to its borders with syria. Strong to maintain the partnership we have built with the l. A. F. We appreciate congress for its continued support of state and enhance rograms that Lebanon Security and economic development. Mr. Chairman, you saw that said that lebanon hosts more other refugees than any area, nearly 940,000 or more. Lebanese t a Single Community not effect the. The United States is trying to elp them deal with the burden providing over 340 million in assist. We urge other countries to meet they have made. There has been a very damaging spillover through the Tourism Sector to investment and trade. Theworld bank has estimated crisis will cut g. D. P. Growth by 2. 9 . Most promising economic sector would be possible substantial reserves of offshore gas and oil deposits. E hope they will be explored and contracted and state department is engaging with to have nd Israel Solutions to the maritime boundary dispute. Secretary general of the u. N. President suleiman launched an international lebanon. Group for we look to this group not to be one off in september but an active vehicle to provide the stability. Promote secretary kerry will attend the anybo gathering of this group. The United States is also committed to ensuring an end to era of impunity for political assassinations. We support the special tribunal for lebanon trials ton one manage bring it justice those responsible for assassinating and ormer Prime Minister dozens of others. Too longer ited accountability and justice. Unfortunately Political Violence plagues lebanon. In december the former finance minister and ambassador to the assassinated. Was r. Chairman, lebanon has faced challenges since its independence. He accord in 1989 helped end civil war. U. N. Security Council Resolution 1701 helped structure a eturn to stability then they established the principle all parties and factions should sustained from regional conflicts. To be implemented. That declaration needs to be all parties. Y has t the problems lebanon friends and United States is an person friend and will continue. With the people of lebanon now. It is in our National Interests stable lebanon able to defend its interests. Thank you. Forward to your questions. Thank you. Plehn. L thank you for the opportunity to speak today and hank you for your help in drug attention it Lebanon Security challenges especially those due conflict. Rian the impact on lebanon from the conflict in syria has become as you know. Acute. You have described the impact. It also is attracting foreign across the region and around the world. Those foreign fighters are hardened and e beginning experience that can have destabilizing effects in years to come. Of great concern and you entioned it Islamic State of raq has exploited the greg growing vacuum it carve out territory and train fire attacks. Nts and plan both isio and others have established a presence in to increase eek their cooperation with sunni this. Ist groups operating as you noted during your recent the sunni terrorist attacks in lebanon are on the rise. Since 2014, seven attacks legislation been Population Centers have been died and d 10 have american 120 wounded. The lebanon necessary armed a variety of ken build measures to maintain tability and counter the destabilizing effects. Tempo reased operational of Lebanese Armed forces deployments over the past few reflects their commitments to lebanons security. The last willingness to exercise its role as the sole legitimate Defense Force in lebanon has a target as well. Just last weekend seconds bird killed personnel were when a suicide bomber detonateed l. A. F. Check an point. Ur continued engagement and assistance it lebanon and Lebanese Armed forces is all the this time of in increased challenges it lebanons stability. The ntioned previously lebanese have disagreed upon a new government. Us with an s opportunity to increase our engagements with their overnment as a whole and lebanon necessary armed forces in particular. Year 2014 we have provided approximately 71 fortune military financing thanks to the u. S. 8. 7 million in 2013. L year both strengthen the Armed Forces Support the d mission to defend their borders and efend the sovereignty implement u. N. Security Council Resolutions. The United States has allocated nearly 1 billion to support the lebanon necessary forces in internal Security Forces making us their partner it security cooperation. Recently in december of 2013 suleiman announced saudi arabia will grant lebanon purchase defense items from the french. In concert with international artners such as the french and in line with international spr group for lebanon mr. Silverman fully spr e strengthening the Lebanese Armed forces and will continue to work ensure our s to assistance is complementary and sed effectively to meet these growing challenges. I would tell you that our International Military education nd Training Program with lebanon is our fourth largest in the world and builds strong ties the u. S. And lebanon by bringing lebanon necessary officers tots United States. 2013 lebanon received money 67 r a program that allowed lebanon necessary military students to attend classes here. 1985 this program has brought more than 1,000 lebanese united students to the states for education and training. Imilarly our section 1206 assistance has enable d to monitor and secure their borders against trithreats and illicit transfer of goods. 2006 the u. S. Provided american 100 million in section 1206 to assist. The desire ing on reform. Titutional d. O. D. Instituteed a Defense Institution Reform Initiative with the l. A. F. This complements u. S. Government efforts supporting Lebanese Security sectorreform. D. O. D. Instituteed a Defense Institution reform performance. There ing, i would say are positive relationships with and tends support to lebanon and armed forces is more important than ever and i thank distinguished er members of your subcommittee for not only calling this hearing interest and support for lebanon. Thank you. Just cant help but comment acronym happy u. S. Phrase could use the l. A. F. With a straight face. Gave me a med forces hat with l. A. F. On it. Lebanon for to either or both of you a lot of hat we heard we went was the warning that lebanon is approaching a breaking point and hat would be described differently by different people. Is that kind of language locker accurate . Alarmist or accurate . Use that only because lebanon has been through o much, more than maybe arguably think other country. But this is a very serious facing n and lebanon is very serious threats. The ce threats even before syrian war to its independence and sovereignty and security. There were political assassinations before the syrian conflict, for example. Has his conflict exacerbated this. Lebanese are fond of using that translates this saturation. That they are saturated. In other words, even though you give more money the International Community can but as a society ed with this. But were appreciative that they out and accepting these people. But i would say there are real. Isks and threats that is why it is so important that the International Community the responsible voices in lebanon that are very threats to out stability. General, any thoughts on that question . Yes, sir. I would say that lebanon has proven to be amazingly resilient the stresses that they have been put under. Certainly from what has been syria as well. I think that a key component of hat esill kwrepbs on resilience with the Lebanese Armed forces is the engagement United States and lebanon necessary armed forces. Hey have shown very Good Progress in counterterrorism fronts as well. We spent time with the new talking about the fortunateliation of the government and system and steps of months xt couple are a little unusual and i opinions. R we are ending the near of a secure president ial lternatively and the expectation is there will be president ial elections by late play. If there is a successful election the newly formed Prime Minister and government with dissolve after three months. Gather they would dissolve with the feeling they had done how job and depending on the president ial election goes that is some chance that cabinet and Prime Minister could be the nucleus of the next the new t working with president. Am i reading this the right way . Mr. Chairman. One other comment on the first general to echo what plehn said this is a tough be much and could worse if we didnt have the institution of Lebanese Armed internal forces assisted by us. Unique i think you can argue this is a unique situation. The government has to try to Reach Agreement on a ministerial statement. If not it goes on being a care it is not able to make real policy. Some of the economic decisions get lost if the government doesnt for example pass decrees issue tenders with the tkpgoes exploration. That have not s been taken up by caretaker governments. They need a fully empowered government to do that. If we say, it may be that can take the spirit that reached compromise to reach a government, if that extends to election we would ave Center Government and hopefully it would be easier to form given we have gone through overnment fully empowered and vote of confidence and president ial election. Sugar coating that it gets down it a complicated process in which a of equities have to be taken into account and one day theres government, the next day there wont be and we hought we might have a ministerial statement yesterday and we are waiting. I hope they can Reach Agreement on that. Build on what spirit we have had in reaching government. N of a my understanding, the selection of the president is than away might think. The selection by parliament twothirds vote. It is not automatic you get a president. Vote for we were in dialogue with local leaders and one possibility they iticated is in the past when was difficult to find a candidate who can reach the wouldirds threshold there be a temporary adjustment in the constitution to allow the sitting president to have a period. It might be a year or two years. With president suleiman and he didnt suggest anything past a sixyear term. Based on what you know now what prospect byk is the may there could be the candidates who could come out a might be able to develop twothirds support in a parliament for the selection of new president . You are exactly right. A percentage on the possibility that this will happen. Very much in our we believe it is important to do he elections which are parliamentary, not popular, on time and according to the constitution. They have gotten it around before extension of the president. Intent is to truly elect a president and there are means, whether as you work it out and bring it as more by the ber Stamp Parliament or a genuine debate parliament. We dont know what will happen. Atis very difficult to guess this point. I would say the odds increase of president but a who knows. And to add to the complexity, hen we would have another government and it would have to orm itself you have and we are looking at parliamentary elections later this year because there parliament will go in november. Ss just based on the previous man indidatmandate. They ted elections and wanted it but they were not able to organize parliamentary elections so it is more than that. So this is a very eventful lebanon. Year for claiming zbollah support for assad in syria and going all in how has that politically ollah inside lebanon . I know theres been controversy to dothat decision by les that. By hezbollah. Sunni engendered active violence spiked largely attributed to hezbollahs to go into syria. Talk about hezbollahs political upport in lebanon and how the decision it focus on syria ffected their political support. Which, e is not a war to in which the people of lebanon wanted or want to be involved. There is in effect hezbollah doctoring the people of this hezbollah dragging people of lebanon into a foreign war. Here have been political costs for les in this. In this. Hezbollah there is a lot of concern across political spectrum regarding witnessed e that you directly and that has plague d late. On of even more so than throughout its political life. There have been political costs. And we will have to see. That is why elections are important. We will have to see knew man itself. You cant automatically translate it but there is lebanese the part of people they are not getting anything out of there. As a matter of fact, everything that is flowing from is negative for them and goes well beyond the refugee situation. Condemned the violence from sunni extremists as well as shia extremists. Lebanon is paying a heavy price. Deserve it people stop paying that price. In your testimony and my pening comments i talked about the syria effect on lebanon hich was a main subject of virtually every conversation we had. I want to ask the question about one other significant dynamic, u. S. Discussions with the iran us one nation with over the Nuclear Program and a prospect that a resolution of challenge and unitedhement between the states and others could a rapprochement with between te skepticism iran and west and saudi arabia open the door to greater in lebanon or would there be a converse concern that em pwebolded iran might furthe tensions in the country. Lebanese talk to people, a lot of them with tell you they would like to believe, it believe, if we are able to reach a nuclear deal will have a t it positive effect, not the negative effect. To think theres a possibility here. Regional actions are we have condemned them. Obviously to be a ajor supporter of the assad regime among other acts sponsoring terrorism. It is not part of the p5 plus one talks. What you say is true and that it will induce iran to a phmore responsible behavior in the region. Came to the geneva conference and the issue came up to potentially attending, could iran part of a be solution . Theoretically yes. We were asking it to do what everybody else that attended the being conference was asked which was accept the communique. Ran chose not to do and exempted itself, excepted itself from that process. Have that ly it will more, if were able to reach an that ent, it will have positive effect. That is up to iran but i think in lebanon the lebanese a change in o see iranian policy toward lebanon syria. Ria et me ask questions about refugee refugees. Picked up in dialogue was the changing efinition of this refugee challenge. The dimension from numbers is significant and sizeable. You assume that the refugee problem is a short lived problem way, once it one somebody has lived in the country a year and two years and , i think theres about 330,000 young people in School System and syrian children of school age. Goes on, the ge tphaoneed and strategy for deal gentlemgee issues start to change. Emergency aid of Water Bottles what do you do to develop better water systems