rate and labor shortages in certain sectors. good afternoon. before i go into the details of today's meeting, i would like to underscore for the american people that we understand the hardship high inflation is causing and that we are strongly committed to bring inflation back down to our 2% goal. over the course of the year we have taken forceful actions they stance on voluntary policy with covered a lot of ground in the full effect of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. even so them or at work today. price stability is the responsibility of the federal reserve serves as a bedrock of our economy. without price stability in the economy doesn't work for anyone in particular without price stability will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. today the fomc raised our policy info rate by one half of a percentage point permit continued to anticipate ongoing increases will be appropriate in order to obtain a sense of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation at 2% over time. in addition, we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size and our balance sheet. restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. i will have more to say about today's monetary policy actions after briefly reviewing economic developments. the u.s. economy has slowed significantly from lester's rapid pace. although real gdp rose at a pace of 2.9% last quarter, it is roughly unchanged for the first three quarters of this year. recent indicators point to modest growth of spending and production this quarter. growth in our consumer spending slowed from lester's rapid place real disposable income in tighter financial conditions. activity in the housing sector has weakened significantly larger reflecting higher mortgage rates. higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment. as shown or simmering economic projections projections and median projection for real gdp growth stands at just 0.5% this year end next. well below the median estimate of normal growth rate. labor market remains extremely tight with the unemployment rate near a 50 year low. job vacancies are still very high in wage growth elevated. job gains have been robust with employment rising by an average of 272,000 jobs per month over the last month. other job vacancies have billable other highs, the pace of job gains have slowed from earlier in the year, the labor market continues to be out of balance with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. they labor force participation rate has very little change since the beginning of the year. participants expect supply and demand conditions any labor markets to come into better balance over time. easing upward pressure on wages and prices. the median projection for the unemployment rate lies 4.6% at the end of next year. inflation remains well above our long-term goal of 2%. of the 12 months and in october total pca prices rose 6% excluding the volatile food and energy categories, for pca prices rose 5% in november the 12 month change in the cpi was 7.1% the change in the core cpi was 6%. inflation data received so far for october and november show a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases. but it will take substantially more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path. price pressures remain evident across a broad range of goods and services. russia's war against ukraine has boosted prices for energy and food has contributed to upward pressure on inflation. that median projection for a total pca inflation is 5.6% the share and falls to 3.1% next year. 2.5% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025. participants consented to risk inflation is weighted to the outside. despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation appeared to be well anchored as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses and forecasters as well as measures from financial markets. but that is not grounds for complacency. the longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance of higher inflation will become entrenched. the fed's monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate maximum employment and stable prices for the american people. my colleagues and i are acutely aware high inflation poses significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power. especially for those least able to make essentials like food, housing, transportation. we are highly attentive to the risks high inflation poses on both sides of our mandate over strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% objective. note today's music many raise by a half a percentage point for bringing target range an a quarter to 4.5%. we are continually processes significantly reduce the size of our balance sheet. with today's actually raise interest rates by four and a quarter percentage points this year. we continue to anticipate ongoing increases in the target ratings will be appropriate in order to obtain a substance of monetary policy to return inflation to percent over time. over the course of their financial conditions have tightened significantly responsible policy actions for and fluctuate in response to many factors. it is important that over time they reflect the policy restraint we are putting in place to return inflation at 2%. we are seeing the effects on demand in the most interest sensitive sectors of the economy such as housing. it will take time however for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized. especially on inflation. the curative tightening in the legs of which inflation the committee decided to raise interest rates by 50 basis points today a step down from the 75 basis point pace seen over the previous four meetings. of course 50 basis points still starkly large increase and we still have some ways to go. i shared an sep that the appropriate level level of fetter funds rate at the end of next year. half a percentage point higher than projected in september. the median projection is 4.1 at the end of 2024.3.1% at the end of 2025. spell above the estimate of run value. of course these projections do not represent a committee decision or plan. and no witness with any certainty where the economy will be a year or more from now. our decisions will depend the totality of incoming data and the outlook for activities and inflation. we will continue to make our decisions meeting invite meeting and communicate our thinking as clearly as possible. moderate demand comes into better alignment with supply. the overarching fork focus back down toward 2% goal to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. reducing inflation is largely to require a sustained period of growth in some softening of labor market conditions. were storing price stability essential set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the long run. this article records caution strongly against prematurely listening policy. we will stay the course until the job is done. to conclude, lender's interactions businesses across the country. something that is in-service or public mission. the fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment with price stability goals, thank you i look forward to your questions. works seem to say thank you for taking my question. that market conditions reflecting the policy you put in place. since he november the tenure has declined by 60 basis points. mortgage rates have come down for it high yield have come in for the economy has accelerated the stock market is up 6%. is this a listing of financial conditions a problem for the fed in this effort and fighting inflation? and if so do you need to do something about that and how we do something about that? thank you. >> as i mentioned it is important overall financial conditions continue to reflect the pulitzer center putting in place and bring inflation under 2%. we think the financial conditions have tightened significantly in the past year. but our policy actions work their financial conditions and those in turn affect economic activity for market inflation. what we controls or policy moves in communications that we make. financial both anticipate and react to our actions. i would add our focus is on short-term moves but on persistent moves and many, many things move financial conditions over time. i would say it is our judgment today we are not a sufficiently restricted policy stance yet which is why we say we would expect ongoing hikes would be appropriate. and i would point you to the sep again our current estimate of what that peak level will be. as you will have seen , people filled out this time. in 17 of those 19 write down a peak rate of 5% or more. that is our best assessment today we think the rate will be. you will also know it each subsequent sep during the course of this year we have actually increased our estimate of what that peak rate will be. and today the sep where published again overwhelmingly participants believe that inflation risks are to the upside. i cannot tell you confidently we will not live up our estimate again at the next sep. do not know what we will do will depend on future data. the best estimate of what the peak rate will be based on what we know. obviously inflation data comes in worse that can move down if inflation data or software. exegete it happy "new york times" print thinking take your question. the sep like you mentioned some of it in make another three-quarter percentage points of rate increases in 2023. i wonder if you would perceive that big and 25 points increments, just how easy this playing out going forward? i wonder what you are looking at as you determine when to stop. click so, as i've been saying it has been the course of this year as meat lifted often get into the course of the year was somehow strong inflation was and how persistent. it's very important to move quickly. the speed, the pace was the most important thing. i think now were coming to the end of the year end we have raised four and 25 basis points this year and we are into restricted territory, it is now not so important how fast we go. it's far more important was the ultimate level. the most important question is no longer the speed. that applies to february as well. i think will make the family decision based on incoming data and or receive financial conditions where received the economy. that will be the key thing pray for that decision ultimately that question of how high to raise rates is one that we make with our progress where financial conditions are in making whether the policies are strict an effort today we have an assessment we are not as restrictive stance and we have laid out our own individual assessments of what we would need to do to get there. and a certain point will get to that point. the question will be how long we stay there? the strong view on the committee is willing to stay there until we are really confident inflation is coming down. we think that we sometimes it why do we say that? you can break inflation down into three buckets. they versus goods inflation. we see it now as we have been expecting really for a year end a half supply conditions would get better and ultimately supply chains get fixed and demand settles down and goes back to services a little bit we see goods inflation coming out. we are now starting to see that in the report and the last one. then he got a housing services wing of the story there's housing services inflation has been very, very hyper and will continue to go up actually says it rents expire and have to be renewed for the going to be renewed into a rate works higher than the original leases were signed. the rate for new leases is coming down for it but still our way through the backlog, that inflation will come down sometime next year. the next piece which is something like 35% of the index the core inflation index is non- housing related core services. that's really a function of the labor market. the biggest cost by far in that sector is labor. a very strong labor market we have not seen much softening or job is very high wages are very high. vacancies are quite elevated and there is an imbalance between supply and demand. that part of it which is the biggest part will likely take a substantial period to get down. goods inflation is turn pretty quickly after not turning it all it now seems to be turning. but there is an expectation the services inflation will not move down so quickly. we'll have to stay at it we may have to raise rates higher to get to where we want to go. that is really while writing down the higher rates in expecting they will have to remain high for a time. >> howard steiner, thank you for taking the question. you describe gdp growth in the steps as a moderate or modest i believe. yet it is really approaching a half a percentage point is not much. you described labor market the unemployment rate is some softening where it's clearly a full point rise as wellin excess of what is historically been related with recession. why would this be considered a recessionary? click something with the projection is. i don't think you qualify as a recession you've got positive growth. expectations and sep are as you said. we've got growth in a modest level which is to say about a half a percentage points. that's a positive growth at slow growth that's well below trend or is not a boom it's going to growth. in that condition labor market conditions are softening a little bit, employment does go up a little bit. i would say many analysts believe the natural rate of unemployment is actually elevated at this moment. it's not clear rules forecasts are above the rate we could never identify its location precision for that 4.7% is still strong labor market. the reports we get from the field are that companies are very reluctant to lay people off. other than the tech companies which is a story unto itself. generally compass to hold onto the workers that habit has been very, very hard to hire. you've got all these vacancies out there far in excess of the employed people that does not sound like a labor market were a lot of people will need to be put out of work. their general store to labor market can come back into balance of relatively modest increases in unemployment. none of that is guaranteed. that is with the forecasters reflect. thank you, nick of the wall street journal. chairman powell i went to follow bongino's question. the decision to step down the prices seems to be socializing our last meeting largely before the past to cpi report showed inflation decelerating and to committees forecasts this year. you just don't talk throughout making decisions meeting by meeting and be mindful of the leg policies. is that mean of all things equal he would feel more comfortable probing for the terminal rate is by moving 25 basis point increments including your next meeting? send updated judgment on what size rake height to make out the last meeting. what you said is probably right. having move so quickly and seen so much restraint that is still the pipeline we think the appropriate thing to do now is move to a slower pace. that will allow us to feel our way. get to that level we think a better balance the risks that we face. that is the idea, it makes a lot of sense to me. particularly if you consider how far we've come. again i cannot tie with the actual size of that will be. it will defend underwriting of factors including income data and present could save the economy in the state of financial conditions. the report did commit last week. she think it was change next note, obviously no. is just a matter of practice sep reflects any data comes out during the beer. participants no they can make changes to sep during the meeting. wellin advance of the press conference we are not running around. such is never the case that sep's jet reflect an important event they didn't care enough was in the meeting. >> rachel? tight charles powell, thank you for taking our questions. i was a wonderful but they projection for the employment rate. as the fed raised unemployment because the model suggests a higher actual rate would automatically choir because higher employment rate? reducing signs of labor market is not quite as strong as we think it is now? to some of the strength of labor market. labor marsh it is very strong. it's just that by now we had expected, we continually were expected to faster progress on inflation the rehab ultimately. and that is why the peak rate for this year goes up between this meat in the september meeting producing the fact he made less progress than expected on inflation. that is why that goes up. that is what unemployment goes up. we have to tighten policy more. and so it did not go up by much than the median but that is the idea. slower progress on inflation. tighter policy probably higher rates held longer just to get to restriction that you need to get inflation down to 2%. >> how much of that can be caused by layoffs versus changes to the labor force population? >> it's very hard to say. you can look at history. history would say in a situation like this the decline since the appointment would be more meaningful than what you see written down there. why is that the case? first is a huge overhang of vacancies. meaning vacancies and come down a fair amount for their hearing from many companies we do not want to lay people off. they will keep people because it's been so hard just like we have a structural labor shortage out there. therefore million fewer people or in the workforce available to work and there is for demand. the fact there is a strong labor market means that companies will hold onto workers. i means it may take longer but it also means the cost unemployment may be less. again were going to find out empirically a reasonable popular outcome. ug heard many labor economists believe that it is. so we will see though. >> thank you, kobe smith with the financial times. how should we interpret the higher core inflation forecast for 23 and sep? does that not then suggested policy rate currently forecasted for next year should actually be higher than 5.1 median estimate penciled in? >> i think that's one of the recent and went up is that cork even stronger this year, came in stronger this year. what you see is our best estimate as of today really. for how high we need to raise rates. i want to do tighten policy to create restrictive policy to slow economic activity and soften the labor market and bring inflation down through those channels. that is the best estimate we make today. and as i mentioned it will make another estimate for the next sep in between meetings we do the same thing we do not publish it. >> hi, victoria guido with politico. i want to make sure i understand specifically what's been on sep. we all expect rates to go higher but you're pessimistic about what inflations were to look like next year. i'm just wondering given were given some inflation is that primarily because of wage growth you expect wage growth to be a headwind? >> are going into next year with higher inflation that we thought. we are actually living down -- at the level we are moving down is a very large drop inflation from where inflation is running out well more than 1% change of inflation. but the drop off point at the beginning of the year is higher. we are moving down by a large chunk. i don't think the policies have anything less affected is just starting from a higher level at the end of 2022. i believe the meeting is 3.5%. that is a pretty significant drop in inflation. in orders coming from? it is coming from a good sector clearly. by the middle of next year we should be able to see lower inflation from the housing services sector. in the big question how much will you see from the largest the 55% of the index which is the non- housing services sector? that is where we believe you need to see a better balancing of supply and demand labor market. it's something we do not want wage increases for strong wage increases in with him to be a level 2% inflation. right now if you factor in productivity estimates, standard productivity estimates, wages are running well above with what would be consistent with 2% inflation. thanks. greg teicher powell. some of your cards been pretty explicit they cannot imagine rick attempting to 2023. that certainly not employed by the scc. some have some easing back from the exterior. what is your view of the likelihood of any rate cuts next year? what circumstances might make them plausible? >> our focus right now is really moving our policy stance that is restrictive enough to have inflation or 2% goal on time. and we think will have to maintain a restrictive extensive for some time. historical appearance question strongly and spiritually listing policy. i guess i would say it this way probably would not see his considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way. that is a test it would articulate. you are correct there are no rate cuts for 2023. >> steve matthews of bluebird. let me ask you about china the last few weeks china has abandoned covid policy and reopening pretty strongly. i'm wondering is your see that as disinflation or because you're seeing supply chains improve? or inflation or because it obviously brings more demand globally and has a global outlook for growth in commodities prices. once you are right to bring those two things will offset each other. we will push down on commodity christ prices pretty good interest supply chain ultimately. i can push inflation up in the west. it is very hard to say how this too will offset each other. does not seem likely actually the overall net effect would be material on this. but your point faces are very challenging situation and reopening. we've seen waves of covid all around the world can interact economic activity. china's very critical manufacturing place for manufacturing and exporting. it's very important. china faces a reopening. they backed away from the common restriction policies or could be very significant increases in covid and we will just have to see is a very risky. hugs chris with the associated press ray thank you for taking my question. shows inflation: clean all the categories it lay out for it are you starting to see are you confident or sink real in getting inflation under control? >> the data we have received so far for october and november we. >> excuse me, from bloomberg radio and television for the slope of a disconnect between the optimistic view just expressed about the economy and the changes you have made. i am wondering if you are reacting to the fact the markets have listened financial conditions? or if you feel the fed may be a little bit behind inflation? the reason disinflation is transitory or not. this affects a soft landing if you're projecting half a% growth for this year. >> i think i got your question. one thing is to say i think our policies are getting into a pretty good place right now. we are restrictive and were getting close to that level of sufficiently think sufficiently. we laid out similar best estimates are to get there. it boils down to holland with this process is going to take? the inflation points there very welcome. i think we are realistic about the broader project. that is the point i would make. we see goods prices coming down verbally understand what will happen with housing services. but the biggest story will will be the rest of it and there's not much progress there. that's going to take some time but my view of my colleagues view as this will take time for we have to level for a sustained period. the monthly reports are very welcome. course there very welcome. maybe we need to be honest with ourselves inflation, inflation is three times or 2% targets. now it is going to say progress but let's understand we have a long ways to go to get back to price stability. >> the soft landing is the longer q kuester. >> i wouldn't say that i don't say that. i would say this, we need to keep rates higher and keep them there for longer inflation moves up higher and higher. i think that narrows the runway. but lower inflation ratings of the persistent time could certainly make it more possible. i don't think anyone knows when that were going to have a recession or not. whether we do with the squishy people in or not. it's not knowable and certainly lower inflation reports where they were to increase the likelihood desperately put it this way and returned her choice to price stability was significantly less of an increase in unemployment than would be expected given the historical record. >> hi german powell. you weren't americans of pain earlier this should the fed heights breaks. now expect injuries rates higher than you thought we first raise that how would you describe that to americans of the projections unemployment find themselves on the 1.6 million americans out of jobs. >> the largest amount of pain, the worst pain would come from a failure to raise rates high enough allowing inflation to become entrenched in the economy so that the ultimate cost of getting it out of the economy would be very high in terms of employment. with very high unemployment for extended periods of time. the kind of thing to happen when inflation really got a live control in the fed did not respond aggressively or soon enough and prior episode 50 years ago. that is really the pain failed to act what were doing now is raising interest rates for people some people higher interest rates on mortgages and the kind of thing. there will be softening in labor market conditions. i wish there were a completely painless way to store price stability. there isn't. this is the best we can do. i do think though markets are pretty confident and it seems to meet we will get inflation under control and i believe we will. we are certainly highly committed to doing that. cute mr. tripp chair, great term with foxbusiness. you've reiterated to david% inflation target. but if there's ever a point we reevaluate that target may be increase your inflation target if it is stickier than even you think it is? >> changing our inflation goal is something we are not thinking about. it's not something you're going to think about. we are 2% inflation goal we will use our tools to get back to 2%. i think this is a time to be thinking there may be a corner considering that we are going to consider that under any circumstances. we're going to keep her inflation target at 2% were going to search will inflation back to 2%. i think it german powell. as you monitor wage growth in unemployment data i wonder if you're playing close enough attention to a sector income levels. have you factored to risk calculations essentially given the case your coverage of 2020? >> i would go back to the labor market that we had in 2018 , 20. looks like wage increases for the people of the lowest income of the spectrum were the largest. the gaps between racial groups and gender groups were at their smallest in recorded history. and all of that because of tight labor market but ate tight labor market had inflation pricing a tick below 2% is what adds potential. so that seems like something that would be really good for the economy in the country if we can get back to that. and so that is what all of us what to do. we went to get back to a long expansion of where the labor market can remain strong over an extended period of time. that is a really good thing for workers in the economy and would love to get back to that. that is what our goal is. in the near term we have to use arch tools to have a price stability lifting but that medium and longer-term. if you think about the country went there difficult time. i think? we can think can happen here. really set up our economy for several decades of prosperity. for the benefit of the economy and the people in it over very, very long period of time. so when it is lost for whatever reason it has to be restored in as quickly as possible. which is what we are doing. [inaudible] marks we do we absolutely do. it is our regular practice to talk about unemployment rates by different groups including racial groups and that sort of thing, we do. we keep our eye on that. >> hi, nancy with marketplace. what would you do if the economy slows so much we enter a recession who before we say strong consistent signs that inflation is slowing. in other words stagflation. >> i do not want to get into too many hypotheticals. it is hard to deal with hypotheticals. so let me just say that we have to use our tools to supply maximum. i've made it for the labor market is very, very strong. near a 15 year low you are at or above maximum employment. in 50 year low unemployment. you can see really high wages nominal wages are high. it's very wrong. where we are missing is on the inflation side. we are missing by a lot of the inflation side. that means me too focus on getting inflation under control and that is what we will do. think as the economy heals two goals come into play. but right now clearly the focus has to be on getting inflation down. >> good. >> think it german powell. you spoke a little bit ago you sent it looks like we have a structural labor shortage in the economy. could you expand on that and talk a little bit more about that? in really are you talking about getting congress action on increasing illegal immigration things like that? thank you. >> what i meant by that the structural labor shortage if you look at where we are now is i mentioned, if you just look at demand for labor you can look at vacancies up less people are actually working pretty physically supply of labor, are you looking for a job or have a job and you are more than 4 million people short. despite very high wages and incredibly tight labor market we do not see participation living up which is contrary to what we saw. the upshot is the labor market is up three half million people at least smaller than it should have been based on pre-pandemic, just assume population and aging of the population labor force should be three and half million more than it is. there are lots of easy ways to get some bigger numbers than that he can go back a few more years. why is that? part of it is accelerated retirement. people dropped out and are not coming back at a higher rate than expected. part of it is plus half a million people died from covid. part of it as migration has been lower part of it not our job to prescribe things. i think if you ask businesses pretty much everyone you talk to their not enough people. i tried to identify that only stopped short and telling congress what to do print they gave us a job and we need to do that job. >> jennifer? >> think you chair powell. with yahoo finance. using your expected growth of half a percent last year. given the process of raising rates and getting inflation back under control. have you had discussions within the community and addressed how long and/or how deep of a recession you be willing to accept? >> in note. we make our forecast and publish them quarterly. those are forecast for slow growth for a softening labor market unemployment goes up but not a great deal. you see inflation coming to any seat rates going up to see inflation coming down. of course we don't talk about this kind of a recession that kind of a recession. we make the forecast for the staff runs you will see this it runs alternative simulations of all different kinds at every meeting and we look at those two. that is just upside and downside scenarios that is responsible practice that can carry on for many decades. we have not asked ourselves that question. coach jean young with market news. i wanted to ask about the sep again. inflation starts to decline materially, that would seem to make the real rate gradually more restrictive or is that something that is built into projections and models? is it something you would like to see? >> we do know that. that's something we not only see but as i mentioned i would not see the committee cutting rates until we are confident inflation is moving down in a sustained way. that would be my test. i do not see us as having a really clear and precise understanding of what the neutral rate is and what neutral rates are. so it mechanically happened by that it will really be a test cutting rates i think in the event it will be a question of who we feel confident that inflation is coming down in a sustained way? thank you very much.