These trials were not held by what we consider to be modern law. Has not been in place and no one has a defense the were no lawyers. Tonight, author stacy schiff talks about her book the witches, on the salem witch trials. Part with theting accusations is that wealthy merchants were accused as witches, sea captains were accused as witches homeless fiveyearold girls were accused to be witches. This is not an incident where all the victims are female. We have five male victims, including on minister. We didnt burn them, we hang to them. Hanged them. There is so much myth, i thought it was important to dispel. A signature feature of the coverage of book fairs and festivals from across the country, with Nonfiction Author talks, interviews, viewer callin segments. Coming up they will be live from the miami book fair. Authors include representative john lewis discussing his book march. I live callin with author peggy noonan. Joins us tor discuss her book, the story. Book,d koppel on his lights out. Surviving the aftermath. Speak with the authors life. Pj o rourke takes your calls on his book. Then an author talks but her book, fracture. Tv. Us on cspan2s book be sure to follow and tweet us your questions. A review of the turkish election november first. About the growing authoritarian state and efforts to combat isis and syria. He looked at president obamas trip to turkey for the g 20 summit. This is about 90 minutes. Let me start with a couple of comments about the report, and why we decided that the task force that i cochair with to write the report, then make a few comments about what it might say about turkeys prospects postelection. Ago, we did a report which looked at the ideological origins of Turkish Foreign policy. This was in the context of the Foreign Policy that had begun whor then foreign minister said turkey should have no problems with its neighbors. That policy had morphed into a cy more sectarian that was my initial injunction to avoid problems with neighbors. It appeared to be driving more authoritarian behavior in turkey. Us that soseemed to much of Turkish Foreignpolicy behavior could not really be explained without reference to what was going on domestically in turkish society. Write thisrtook to report. Recommended committed to everybody that it is quite illuminating. The week before the election in turkey with some distinguished. Ommentators, Michael Reynolds in the former economist correspondent in turkey who both agreed that this paper has a lot to tell people. Who know a lot about turkey. Some of what we see in turkeys current political circumstance. The media immediate changes we see going on in education policy etc. The paper serves as a useful backdrop to the election. As was mentioned a minute ago, i dont think many observers saw this result coming. It gained about 5 million votes. It went from 40 of the share of the vote to about 49. 4 . Tradition of free and Fair Elections. Its hard to imagine 5 million votes were stolen in the election. It would be hard to characterize it as a Fair Election. Over 200 offices of the Kurdish Party in turkey. Theve in mind demonstrations by thuggish partyts supporting the against Mainstream Media outlets and days before the election, and the arrest of journalists are hardly the kind of environment in which a fair environment can take place. That is not to mention the high level of violence in the high as wealmost as used to see in the 1980s which makes it very difficult to imagine a Fair Election being held in the southeast. Where a large number of the kurdish voters reside. What do we that, find ourselves facing . Although this victory was not foreseen by others, and must save been 30 to 40 polle taken, and not one protected this outcome. The highest i saw it was 47 for akp. That was an outlier. Would it tells you is, even with this very large victory, the Prime Minister and the president have received 49 of the vote. That indicates that turkey remains a deeply divided society. Requires, in my view, we wouldurkey forward like to see it be the kind of partneric, pluralistic for the United States that we need it to be in the middle east. That the government would governinghe task of in a spirit of both reconciliation of political differences, emphasis on peaceful reconciliation, and a concern for pluralism. He has an extremely authoritarian view on democracy. His view is that having won, he won, and his opponents lost, and now he gets to govern in whatever way that he sees fit. That is likely to carry turkey into the direction of greater polarization, increased violence, and perhaps worst. Unless that trend is arrested. I hope i am wrong, i would be delighted to be proven wrong, but i am afraid that given what we have seen, it is hard to imagine him approaching this in any other way. I hope then to make it clear the freedom we attach to the rule of the, to a fair regard rule of law, to the fair regard for other opinions, and for a spirit of tolerance to the a guiding e,rce to be a guiding forc rather than efforts to eliminate criticism, crackdown in the media, paint opponents with a very broad brush as terrorists and supporters of terrorists. That is what i hope will see from the u. S. Government. Though am not sanguine about that, either. Dr. Cornell . Thank you, and thank you ambassador for your comments. Point inke my starting a retrospective of where turkey is today compared to the promise that the akp stood for and represented about 15 years ago. The idea ofe akp membership in the eu embraced democracy, and promised to break the semiauthoritarian system that existed. Especially when there is a quest for the moderate muslims throughout the world, what could be better than what the akp,s to be. What the see today is that the turkey that they have developed, which they call the new turkey project is very far from what they were saying then. What western observers and turkish liberals believed when they provided significant support, and endorsement. The ambassador went into some of the details before enduring this election period. I would add that one 100 people are more are killed by suicide bombers in the capital of the city, we see the Police Responding by shooting tear gas and Water Cannons at the dead and injured and hindering First Responders from coming to the scene. This is very different than what we expected. What were seeing with this new is these twin proceses, chronologically. The deepening of authoritarianism, and a process of accelerated islamization. I think my colleague will speak more about the authoritarian elements of the system. I would say it is very often noted that the turkey that existed before the akp was not ideal. That is a fair point on that note that is a fair point. On that note, it is the nature of authoritarianism that may defer. It was built before not on institutions, but persons. It was rather predictable. There was a structure. To a considerable degree it was built on laws. But it agree with them, was enshrined in the constitution with the National Security council, the courts, the antiterror laws, and everything. That makes it much more volatile and unstable. Even with 317 seats in the parliament, president erdogan is not in a position to achieve the system he said is already de facto in existence in turkey. It is different than what the constitutional system of turkey has mandated. This deinstitutionalization of power may be the most dangerous facet of what is going on today. In the study, we go into some detail about, what for a long time was a dog that did not bark, the process that many secularists were crying wolf about that did not seem to happen. Especially after the 2011. Lections there has been a mass reversal of the secularizing reforms in the late 1990s, after the military intervention of 1997. Rebuilding of a directly Religious School system, run very much under the supervision of the foundation that runs the erdogan family. In this process we see the transformation of regular we see a system that tries to push them into the schools from the regular school system. The second is the role of the state directorate of religious affairs. It existed control religion. And it was built for controlling religion. It is being used to propagate islaminstream form of that is the majority in turkey. Population. Of the states yoular actually have a director of religious affairs that only promotes one form of religion in islam. And has grown tremendously in size but also in the public profile. 512 on one 800 1800fatwa line that you can call. They are all issues that they have weighed in on. That doesnt carry any legal but has a Strong Influence over society. There has been a massive expansion under the akp whereas they used to be available only for children over the age of 12, any kind of limitation of age for the facilities in which they can be held, the training of teachers for these courses that have been more or less dismantled which has changed the situation. Finally, i think that it is to have a chairman was a neutral, nonpolitical person, or now we clearly see how the leadership is overly supportive of the policies of the government. Increasingso an staffing of the organization belonging to people by the religious orders. There are many other facets of islamization, the attitude to the role of women. There is also the increasing role of crony capitalism seeking to move ownership of the economy from the old elite to the new islamic elite. And especially with regatta syria, but also places like libya or they were found to be supportive of jihadi groups. In trying to understand why this is happening, very often we find that blame is being put on the western alienation or turkey. It are they alienated turkey or the war in the u. S. Or alternatively we see versions that focus on the role of erdogan as a person. But has basically been more and more unstable. If only it wasnt erdogan running turkey, but somebody else from the adp. There is senior people in the party, if only it was somebody else rather than erdogan, we would not have this problem. In other words, all of these explanations assume that the problem is not that our fundamental analysis was wrong, but something went wrong along the way. See is that this is basically fundamentally wrong. That all of these excellent nations under estimate and ignore the ideological baggage which is very consistent with what you are seeing being played out in turkey presently. Turkish islamism, is much more radical than generally accepted. It is true and it is an important point that the tradition and turkey which is part of this movement has refrained it from being violent. It has always had a respect for the state and an attitude not take up arms for the state. But we see that the ideas are profoundly radical. The three routes to this movement, one of these at the order which especially from the early 19th century onward brought alien inspiration much more orthodox than the traditional policy islam into the turkish mainstream from arab lands through kurdish lands, and we should not look at the order lookingditional inward spiritual system. It is a very spirituallybased order that is extremely political. That is the first route, ideologically and intellectually. The other is that turkish and , who werehinkers highly inspired by the european ideologies of the 1930s, particularly the fascist ideologies, and were passionate opponents of democracy and passionate opponents of the west and very strong antisemites. The third element of the Global Muslim Brotherhood movement were very influential from that i can 60s onward. To give you an example of how this comes together, the grand old man of turkish islamism, who died several years ago published, posthumously, a book of memoirs which roughly myslates to mein kampf, struggle. It is not available , the that we might think of making it available. The most important part is it showed the antisemitic conspiracy thinking is not marginal at the french, it is believe of the islamic system in turkey. The 30 pages front and center of this book is called those who rule the world. It talks a great deal how the Zionist Movement controls the freemasons and founded the u. N. , the nato and the european union, and the council on Foreign Relations to rule the world. Needed theey downfall of the Ottoman Empire for the downfall of greater israel, and in principle, you come away with the understanding that not only is everything jewish bad, but everything bad in the world is jewish. This is a cornerstone of his ideology and has entirely colored the movement in turkey. Was born oute akp of a breach away from this Islamist Movement. The way we find it is that the akp ever did leave islam is a islam is him islamism intellectually. Find among the politicians, did not occur when the akp was created. Akp whiched the removed him from power. When the akp came in at was really only to get rid of him and the old guard which was a block in the process of their political ambitions. After the party was closed down by the courts. In the paper, we discussed in great detail how this process every branding was very technical in nature. And it is important to note that eu andself, embraced the embraced the issue of applying to the european courts for redress against the closure of the parties. In his book in 2014, there is nothing there. Nothing about the eu or democracy, as if that never happened to the hardcore ideology of the 1960s. In principle, what youre left with a conclusion is the rebranding never went to the core issue. It never went to the core issue that the Islamist Movement in turkey and the people who are today, remain decisionmakers in the a key pay akp. They have a delusional conspiratorial worldview based on the jewish conspiracy. There is a linear link between the return to the hardcourt islamist ideas and values that were part of the islamist andment in the 1960s 1970s. By looking at the june election, we found out that erdogan was everywhere, in rallies and on posters. The defeat of the akp in june was the idea of saying no to a president ial system and authoritarian system built on one man. What you find in the november election is to dont find erdogan in rallies and posters, the akp try to present itself as a party and not the vehicle for one single individual ambition. That is one of the reasons why they were successful in the election. People voted for the party and stability, but not the person of everyone. That does not change the fact that erdogan will try to push the system. With a view to the conclusions of our study, much more importantly, whether or not he succeeds and having constitutional backing for a system, he will have at least four more years deep in his itact on turkey and make irreversibly a more middle eastern country and more polarized than it was when he took power. Alfred whitehead said that the tradition of western philosophy consisted of footnotes to plato. Its one of the reasons i decided to study it. But in the same way, what i have to say will mostly consist of footnotes to their excellent presentations. Read about turkey today without seeing the word authoritarian pop up and it is hard to ignore what has been happening in turkey without coming to the conclusion that there is a departure from democracy. Something beginning with the protests in the last a of may that were met with a blue Police Response followed by the nevada 17th investigations into corruption. And the way the prosecutors who brought those charges were dealt with. Theas become clear that them Prime Minister, and now president erdogan, called the shots in turkey. The purpose of this paper was to examine the nature of authoritarianism more deeply, and ask, where does this come from, what is the nature, what is the structure . How is it being implement it . Implemented . And why does it matter . The argument we made in the paper is all of the trends we are seeing today is not the result of something that miraculously happened in 2013, or even some earlier day. It is not the result of a break that erdogan had, or purely personal ambitions and not party wide objectives. As he laid out, we really traced their ideology back to the old tradition which is the authoritarian ideology. They were all authoritarian structure with him being there strong leader. Therefore it is not surprising that that is what we are seeing is the partyand that is the inheritor of that tradition. There is a question of how has this come about . The argument we put forward is that the democratic moment that 2000 three,002, when the akp is elected, which from turkishns intellectuals and western leaders about how this is a Democratic Party that is actually going to solve the deficit turkey has had, is really actually be entree in some lace to the authoritarianism we see today. In order for the akp to stay in forced erdogan from still his predecessors being fresh in peoples mind, and akps mind, that that they could stay in power without being meddled with. The First Step Towards that was clearing the underbrush, the threats to their rule, which was military. Which is what we see in 2006, 2007, 2008, with the sledgehammer case. Of plotting and terrorism with the military. And then you see basically the akp completely swing the pendulum and other way, becoming the mirror image. First they were the outsiders, trying to clear away the established institutions of the state that might oppose them, and suddenly they become the institutions of the state trying to clear away the social and economic institutions that might oppose them. Thisyou see in turkey authoritarianism in two levels. One is the institutionalization, and you can also color the personalization of powers, s hands, that separation of powers, rule of law that is meant to shield the use of power. You see tinkering over time, first in the 2010 constitutional referendum and then and last two years with the laws that govern the body that controls addresses and prosecutors are appointed. Judges and prosecutors are appointed. Allowingked the cards erdogan to dictate the judges. Rule of law and separations of powers are voting. The regulatory body that leads to invasions of Media Freedom that ambassador edelman mentioned. The second level of authoritarianism used he is the elimination is sources of opposition, the closing and of the closing in of the open society. As we saw in the lead up to the elections, the imprisonment of journalists, some of this being done through the government, through legal means, but a lot of it doing through extra legally, with mobs showing up at newspapers, sometimes led by , but not in any sort of official capacity, and ransacking the offices. You also see and economics here, phere, a crony capitalism emerging, where meansment contracts are of enriching supporters of the government, as well as the party through kickbacks enriching itself, and pushing out from the economy and access to wealth, to access to being able to own media companies. You really see a systematic authoritarianism on multiple levels, not just in the government but also and the economy. The question of why this matters has been hinted at, its about polarization and stability. Turkey has multiple crosscutting cleavages. We talk about the akp in opposition as the socially conservative or pious versus secularists. But it is much more than that. You have sunnis, turks versus the current, all of these are in play. Worse than that, what you see between june and november election is they have hardened in a way that appears difficult to reverse at this point. Going into the june election, there is a lot of optimism, specifically around the possibility the Kurdish Party might cross the 10 threshold for the first time and this would be a significant step forward for turkish society, and a way to moderate the akps power. Theres also a sense of possibility, change, imminent or at least possible. Among a lot of members of the opposition, that sense of hope really evaporated by the time the november election came around because it seemed apparent that president erdogan were willing to take the country destabilize of war, the country in order for them to be able to make the argument that it could bring stability back. Matters, reason this erdogans antics in washington are seen as strategies. Turkey has had four election in the last few years. Its easy to say they are shutting down youtube and twitter because they need to do this before the election, but after the election, dont worry everything will come back, hes just cracking down on the kurds because hes doing this to gain votes, but action after the election, dont worry, it will change. First all, we have not seen that, multiple times we have heard this happens. There is a circular logic here, where we say we should not worry about his authoritarian tendencies, because as soon as he gets what he wants, he will need to resort to them, but why does he want to use it . It is to create this authoritarian system that hes not shy of talking about. We are effectively trying to persuade ourselves that the authoritarianism will go away bee he has the power to authoritarian freel, which seems circular. Really paying attention to the important to understand where the country will be going in the future. Thank you. Mr. Tsereteli thank you. I guess much of what there is to say about the election and the outlook has already been said, so i will do my best to make it interesting. For me, i have to say, i think erdogan was somewhat on a losing he was even though always coming in first in the elections, i think his akp did worse than expected in the local in the in 2014, president ial election, he got just under 52 against ies. Ntially nobodys i would not say they were political heavyweights, but he was essentially unknown at the time of the president ial election. Majority in june. I would have to say, to me, this election was, to erdogan, somewhat recovering the midas touch in politics he has had previously. Guts to roll the dice, maybe he didnt have much choice because he was frightened of not having a majority. But nobody expected a success, and he did succeed. Im not suren alluded tolaise who this, i guess he showed a little more flexibility than i expect ed. Surveys showed after the last histion, that both presence, is very shrill campaigning for akp, and his emphasis on a president ial system, which remains not very popular in turkey, that those two elements actually hurt akp in june. What did he do . Tend to thinkwe of him as such an egotist that he would not be able to do this, but he kept himself out of the campaign in november. And you didnt hear much. About the president ial system. He showed, surprising tactical flexibility. A lot of negative things have been said about the polls in turkey, for a good reason. It is actually a great cartoon, as somebody sent me. , iave to share with you think it will mean something for those of you familiar with turkish politics. It shows the leaders of the three losing party sitting around, and grumbling about how howible the polls were, they missed entirely. In the are saying, how can the pollsters stay there . They should resign. [laughter] the allusion to the fact that Turkish Party leaders virtually never resign. Think,s one poll that i i think he had something think they doy, i market research, they are the only ones who have done something close to exit polling in turkey, polls right after the elections. 8 had over 20 of an hp voters saying if they had known how the election would turn out that they would have voted for akp. Goodk, i dont know how it is, i can vouch for it, im not here to advertise for it, polls must seven showing something similar. The progovernment tapirs were all saying the solution is a new election papers were all sing the solution is a new election. He obviously believes the kind of results that came out of that poll. That already created the base of voters for akp. Which he built on to his victory in november. He knew there was already a significant chunk of voters who were unhappy with a hung parliament, and were going to vote for him for the sake of the majority. See, like many commentators have said, this was a vote for stability. It is only in turkish at this whot, but for those of you have a rudimentary knowledge of turkish, its pretty easy to read. Even i could read it. Had some very interesting things in it, but i think although the vote was for stability, i think what the turks are going to reap is a great deal of instability. I will take off a lot of things that have already been said. Clear that erdogan sees this though to as an affirmation of his policy. He willwe can expect continue to push the president ial system that has already been indications from that is alonghat the line. Hes 13 votes sort of parliament passhaving enough votes to a constitutional amendment that could be brought up for a referendum. Past some of the cooperation between akp and the mhp, i would not be shocked to see who called the extra votes from an hp mhp. , should he get to a referendum, roughly 70 of turks the election, once a campaign for a referendum were involved, who knows what would happen, because akp has many levers and erdogan is very influential. We will see a continuation in the system of the war on the pkk. Pkk is what i think is a blender for the turkish cause, temporaryhat it is ceasefire is over its temporary ceasefires over. We are likely to see a crackdown on the universities. Passed new regulations shortly before the election that gives Higher Education console the right to take over universities. It is the worst era i can remember. In just the recent things, just highlight, i know they have been the policey, storming the building and just taking the tv stations off the air, and the newspapers were taken over. The next day, they flipped 180 degrees editorially. Or 360 degrees, as Prime Minister davutoglu would say. Right. Kovsky i think there are some disturbing things. I dont remember anything like this. There have been nearly 300 cases of journalists and others who ,ave been indicted, arrested find for insulting the president. Cases on the such books, i do remember senior officials in turkey filing libel suits, including the president any years ago its almost full proof way of getting people to shut up. The crackdown will continue. I want to emphasize one point with this election. In december 2013, a Corruption Case was opened against many akp associated people, followed by a series of leaks, of recordings, that seem to implicate erdogan himself. Turkishsubsequent political history, think we can say until november 1, has probably been about the avoid thoseying to charges coming to him. That isple would argue why he insisted on becoming president , because its harder to get to a president. Its a three quarters vote for impeachment, otherwise hes basically beyond the law. Someone are you guys like he anted to what he needed majority government, because even a coalition government, it might have been difficult not to favor of pursuing corruption charges. Now hes insulated from the charges and i think that story is pretty much over. I think there will be tough times ahead. Couple things about the United States. Is there some Silver Lining . Im trying to be objective. Perhaps. From the u. S. Point of view, the fact that we have been using the agreement with what was an interim government but wasnt akp dominated government. July perhaps this chp had been part of the government, i dont think there had been any would have been any interruption, but chp has its own cut about syria and the United States, maybe there would have been some complications. Another will not. Now there will not. Fight a war, winning the war tends to dominate all aspect of policy, and that is understandable. I think that will be the dominant element. Policy, but i would echo what ambassador edelman said, it is extremely important that we continue to focus on the freedom on the, and particularly repression of freedom of expression. In turkey. Department, i would have to say despite strategic needs in turkey, has made important payments statements. We will have to keep that up front. I think the first test of how we are going to balance that, the important test will come this weekend. President obama will be in turkey for the g 20 summit. At the previous g 20 summit, he seemed to try to evade Prime Minister erdogan, which is home he once had a close relationship, but since 2013, has not. Its difficult to evade your host. It will be difficult to see how the president balances appreciation for the fact that we are able to use turkish bases isil withght against a very deep concern about the lack of freedom and declining freedom in turkey. I will leave it at that. Mr. Tsereteli thank you. John. Ben hannah i will try to quick, because i know we have time. Underscore what allen said, as much as i dont like it, i think it is really this election really did erdogans mastery over turkish policy. Never thought that the election would be the dagger to the heart, the and to the absolute ingn over turkish politics, the aftermath of what happened november 1, i think we have to say was that most a stumble. He remains a giant. His ability to manipulate,ntimidate, threaten, persuade inspire, to demagogue the turkish public, to serve his own political and, i think is without parallel in the turkish system. I think its an amazing five , this resounding overwhelming victory by the akp although moreule, at earthquake because it was so unexpected and and predict it, xcept perhaps for president erdogan. He took advantage of the two policemen in july, seized on the prof occasion and the Peace Process declared dead, and watched more or less fullscale conflict in turkey southeast and as my colleague has said, it was he who decided he was going to double down on crushing all forms of dissent inside of turkey, particularly in the media. Oft really astounding cases repression of the media, as well as political opponents, particularly within the turkish dominated kurdish dominated party. This was a systematic strategy, by erdogan of manufactured chaos. To essentially scared the turkish people into reason visiting the results of june 7 and returning the akp to monopoly power. If they didnt, basically it was as much a threat as a promise that things could get much worse. Their onlyfelt option was they strong akp government. It was a miraculous result, when you think about what he did, the he had toas clearly, whip up some level of National Hysteria and went back National Photos he got to back the akp, at the same time he needed to vote, that hads taken so many voters away from him. Seats and i to 40 assume most of them went to akp. They lost more than a million voters who were overwhelmingly kurdish voters. Just think about what he did. He won over millions of antikurdish rightwing thosealists, and one over close to a million conservative cup polish those. That is quite an extraordinary feat to be able to read that needle. But he did. Think it underscores his mastery of turkish politics. What does it mean from here . I agree with my colleagues. It is bad news. Will see this as a mandate to continue doing what hes doing, that the policy worked, that whenever a narrow window of opportunity existed on june 7, to begin dialing back the trajectory towards authoritarianism in turkey, erdogan made sure he would slam it shut. My guess is over the next four years until the voters go to the polls, he will make sure it is nailed shut, and democracy and human rights and pluralism, and freedom of the press, are all going to suffer tremendously. I think he will push this notion presidency,al whether the turkish people want it or not, i think he will figure out a way to get it. If it means dominating not just 70 of the media in turkey as he morenow, dominating 90 or or 100 , think that is what he will do. 13 otherds parliamentarians outside the akp to be a will to go to a constitutional referendum on an executive presidency, i think with political winds at his back , with all the powers of the states and his command, including the coercive powers but all the incentives the states can potentially provide to these parliamentarians, i think 13 seats is not a high hurdle or a big obstacle for him to work on over the course of the next year in order to get the referendum. The Peace Process with the , but, again, im not sure the fact is that pushing the Peace Process, he will look back and say, that cost me votes. I think the election underscores rightwing nationalists constituency is his ability to consolidate power. I think that is the lesson he will take, that reaching out to hurt me. , that in fact over the last five months, increased tensions, conflict, violence with the kurds, that got me. That is the path to go. Maybe not fullscale war, the cost of that politically and economically, that could be not a place he wants to go. But the thought of lowlevel pensions, continued simmering guess is that is what we are likely to see, a syriauation of the room a continuation of. In syria, we will see. Senses this added to the being able to play the nationalist card, of seeing kurdish aspirations, as a thread , even a mortal threat to turkeys territorial integrity. I think that could spill over onto the syrian front, and particularly the kurdish question inside of syria. I think the fact that increasingly, it looks like u. S. Strategy is growingly dependent on the Syrian Kurdish movement, is closely, which aligned with the pkk inside of turkey, the u. S. Is really ypg as annto the integral way to fight isis on the ground and being able to put pressure on the capital in ra qqa, which must be one of the main lines of our operations. As secretary carter has recently said, clearly, that is a major problem for them, even perhaps a redline. The notion of a budding u. S. White pg military alliance on g military yp alliance on the border is something they said they cannot tolerate. Up to now, we have seen isolated incidents of auxiliary, airstrikes by turkey, ypgs positions across the border, but i think that is something to watch. No doubt, hopefully this weekend and early next week, when the president does talk to erdogan, my guess is trying to reach better understandings about where we are headed on syria is going to be very important creating what we will do or not do with the ypg. Them as the tip of the spear in fighting isis, what else is the answer . Two office is going to do it wealth is going to do it . Else is going to do it . Its not a serious alternative to what we are trying to do on the ground against isis. Now there is a question of what skin is turkey willing to put in the game. There has been subtle hints, notsosubtle, maybe they are prepared to get serious if they have a coalition they can work with. Are they prepared to do that . Put boots on the ground and zones . Say sounds safe we will see. Its a question worth pursuing. I dont think it will be an easy discussion. There are potential landmines between us and the turks over syria. Im not sure this election makes it easier to resolve. Believe me, there are a lot of, dought there are turks fighting. If there are u. S. Weapons that the end of being used against Turkish Security forces, that will be a real diplomatic crisis between the United States and turkey. There are a lot of things moving that could point us in that kind of direction. I think that is something we will very much want to head off. I would finally say that, stepping back into the larger i dontfor me, is that know how to the window was, but there was a window open after june 7 in which turkey may have had a chance to put the brakes on the juggernaut of erdogan hurtling towards a more authoritarian future for turkey. I think we probably will look back in retrospect to see the election on november 1 as a real point for the country where it did have a chance to go and perhaps two different directions, and there may have been off ramp for them off of this superhighway of erdogans towards some form of putinism with a nasty islamist tilt. I think they thought about it, they thought about it a second time, may have changed their mind and then didnt take the and now its in their Rearview Mirror and they may have ended up in the express lane to some form of turkish putinism. Getting back to that exit from this very bad trajectory, i think is going to be very very is going, and erdogan to make it very difficult, if not impossible, to have that exit ramp in 2019. That will be a singular strategic purpose of his to make sure he doesnt have to go through that kind of experience he went through ever again. On that cheery note. Mr. Tsereteli thank you. [laughter] thank you to all for a very substantive discussion. Theink we would like to use time we have left for questions from the audience. Here. A professor i would like to hear more about countervailing forces. Courts,entioned, the the media have been mentioned, very little about the military as a potential countervailing force, the Business Community, the opposition political parties. Democracy doesnt just happen because people are nice to each other. Its because there is some kind of force that works against you. Mr. Tsereteli if you could please keep answers short so we can have more questions. Who wants to start . Alan makovsky i think there are countervailing forces but i dont think they are powerful enough. You mentioned the military, everyone in turkey, i wonder why they always speculate what the militarys thinking. Oncenk it is clear erdogan the military on his side. In the military is an opaque institution, but i think as much as we can see into it, they strongly support the idea of going after the pkk. They see the pkk as a greater isis, they see ypg and pkk as more or less the same. I think they feel this way its not evenaybe completely clear who is driving the policy more, but i think erdogan and the military are probably more or less in lockstep. On this. I think there are other issues where they can put the brakes on, and they have put the brakes on, but i dont think its about domestic politics. They Foreign Policy where are involved. There was a rumor about two months ago that turkey was about to send land forces into syria turkey. Gly oppose andrding to all reports, that is all we have to go by, the military said we are not going to do it. I think the military never lost total power in turkey, im not sure, i may be in the minority on this. Obviously with all the officers that were arrested, they were hurt badly, they lost their ability to affect domestic politics. But they have in certain ways retains their autonomy. When it comes to the use of them, they are decisive. In oure not going to system, the military might say, mr. President , this is a difficult operation and im not sure we can do it. But the guys still salute. I dont think in turkey the military has ever been like that. Even at its lowest moment. Hashe way, the military resisted in other ways. The military educational system is still intact. They control their own educational system. Effort, it was publicly announced by the government, they want graduates of the schools, these statesponsored parochial was mentioned, to be eligible for acceptance into military academies. So theys a big fight, would be eligible for regular universities. Wonmilitary said no, they that battle. It is not 100 to nothing. But when it comes to domestic i dont really see it. The big Business Community may be does not like erdogan so much, but theres a lot of tigers, whoolian are very much supportive of him. I would sayztal what countervailing forces there are are not looking to democratic means. If they didnt want to be. If they even want to be. If they would want to be it would not be democratically. The big businesses alan theyoned, a lot of them, are deciding to leave turkey rather than continue to move live under the system or they feel like he will be suppressed or liberties will be forsaken. Among the kurds, one of the stories that has not been discussed if they radicalization happening within kurdish youth. Some of these towns, where there is lots of fighting between Security Forces and kurdish youth, they were not fighters are members of the pkk who had been trained. That had local youth been radicalized by what is medical and taking up is him to defend the cities. Thats not a democratic process. One place we might be able to leader, there is the the otherf the hdp, charismatic persona who might be able to rival erdogan. But i would say hes very much limited by the politics of his party, even though it aspires to be a national party. He is perceived as a danger to erdogan, and eight danger to the pkk. One of the things i heard a lot when i was in turkey recently want thaty people leader to be dead, that if he were to be assassinated, i would not be able to tell who is a suspect. Mr. Tsereteli thank you. Thank you. Director of the institute of turkish studies at georgetown. I would like to thank the panel. Andproviding consistent accurate assessment of what is happening in turkey. Thank you for maintaining that position. It is a true resource in this town. One rumor in the g 20, it is suggested they might actually sees the newspaper in the immediate aftermath. Thats something to watch out for. My question is directed at john hannah. I was the ambassadors still here. From the perspective of decisionmakers in the room who be advising the president , it is nice, we are talking about off,ans has the brakes this is a dangerous regime, but is there any good advice that the president should not be doing business with these guys . Where we doing business with . Has the United States and europe over a barrel on a lot of things. He has managed to pull a lot of levers in domestic politics, and managed the unthinkable. Will he be able to do this at the International Level . For anyone say this is not acceptable . I think its a good question. You are sitting next to one of who knows a lot. I would say no, i think it is not. I think it is a sobering reality that even hit the Obama Administration about what they are dealing with in turkey, which took a very long time for people in this town to realize. I wish they had had this study or we have had the study back in 2002, 2003 to understand what we were dealing with. I think there was an awful lot of Wishful Thinking about where erdogan and the akp were likely to take turkey. Brewing that, that we had not been able to act earlier and develop strategies to do it we could to put turkishs in support of democracy and freedom of the press, and all the things we care about. At the end of the day, these are vital for having a serious, stable partner in a nato country. Lan is right, especially the context we are dealing with today in the middle east, where there seems to be something of a regional meltdown underway, in which this president has launched a war against the terrorist organization, in which we are getting some modicum of support now from the turkish government. I think he has manipulated that successfully. I have no doubt the decision after a year to grant us access to the basies was very much tied to his and at the service of his own domestic agenda with an to doward what he wanted on november 1, and what he wanted to do visavis the pkk, and by some of the u. S. Acquiesce. In the same way, i have no doubt that what happened all of a sudden after several years of this conflict, this rush of people out of turkey into europe, creating this crisis on europes doorstep, was no accident. I do believe there was probably some level of manipulation there, that erdogan does have his hands on the cap, such as speak with regard to the refugee crisis, and very much understands and is late using this as leverage with his dealings with europe and the United States. If they want to have any hope of solving this crisis, not to mention the broader crisis in syria, as difficult as a part theturkey has been, hopes of getting a settlement without turkey involved are slim to none. If that requires you to lower your voice and luckily for the moment regarding basically the dismantlement of the turkish democracy and turkish rule of law, so be it. Inse guys are out of Office Another 50 months anyway, it will be somebody elses problem to build 15 months anyway, it will be out of their hands anyway. I think it is unfortunate, because i think it will come back to bite us at some point. Alan makovsky we need turkey for the war against isis, as long as we feel that, its probably not going to change. I did want to qualify little bit that idea, the comments made at the in ministration is not saying anything. Ithink they have actually, have been surprised, to be honest, with some of the strong statements if you go back and look at state Department Press briefings. They have been very tough on turkey, on freedom of expression. Also, following the election, we did not, the u. S. Government did not congratulate akp. It was very unusual in a landslide like this. We said we are waiting for the official vote, which always comes out in 10 days after the election. Speculate nt wont speculate on the result. We are the only ones in the world who not speculate on what. He results were those of clear message we were very unhappy about the human rights situation, the fact that the campaign had taken place under a situation of great restrictions on the opposition. Just to be fair to the u. S. Government on that question. This has been an excellent panel. Im a retired Foreign Service officer. I want to ask ambassador edelman a question, but hes gone, so i will pitch this to the whole panel. He mentioned turkey is a society with many cleavages. If you set aside the religion and recall that the akp came to power on the promise of economic betterment and good governance, and the economy has been slowing. What is the longterm or nearterm implications of this, for erdogan and the akp . Do we have i think for a long time, we have classified turkey as the most at risk emerging economy together with brazil. You have seen over a long time, tensions within the turkish wasrnment where erdogan more interested in populist moods, did not like the independence of the central banks, wanted to lower interest rates. There was a resistance from the professionals, people in the government. It seems to me that the more erdogan capitalizes on this position of power, thats not good news for the management of the economy. Right now with the consolidation of power, the crony capitalist type of economy building, it is really gone off the rails compared to where it was. I dont see that changing. If anything, its likely to get worse, which means the conditions for real economic downturn in turkey are certainly there. There needs to be a trigger of some form, internal or external trigger. Another election lost could have been that trigger. They spread that propaganda, which was, also helped with the victory. The question is, what would happen if there was an economic downturn . Many people say, the only way we is byt rid of erdogan economic crisis. I dont think it would work that way. I think that would haste in the process of authoritarian systems and he would push back very aggressively. Hello. Im a Senior Research fellow for a nonprofit called stability institute. A couple of you have touched upon this time a i wanted to go from the eyes of the voters in turkey. Tried to understand why they ave the party and erdogan resounding majority. Part of it was stability. But was it all because they remember the good times between 2007 when things were going well . The turkish economy was relatively growing. What was the reason . For that they vote party and propel it to the majority . Director misztal there is an assumption that there is an assumption democracy matters. Acolleague of ours spoke while ago, after the terrible tragedy in turkey, he noticed the akp swept the local election there. He actually went there, not done 100 floors doors, and they said that they all voted for the akp. They said, i have a mortgage on , and ie, on my car have credit card debt. U. S. Redit card debts are three 2008 crisis. Those kind of levels. People really are very fearful of this. If you look at sociological in a recent interview, what is the composition of the electorate . He said, middle class is maybe 20 . And then you have the lower middle class, 40 of the vote. You can do the math of what is their priority. Pocketbook issues will understandably have a much higher level of priority than abstract issues of even president ial systems versus freedom of the courts, and so on. I think that is the reason. Mr. Tsereteli maybe just one last question. Hello, im a recent graduate. My question is how are the refugees affecting turkey socially and economically, and he you believe European Countries specifically, germany, will send more aid to turkey to help with the refugee crisis to prevent more refugees from going into western europe . Director misztal let me say one say one thing. Ny the easiest thing for europe to do is write a check. Director misztal i think to europe hase said, very much made a bargain that they were going to look the other way on turkeys democratic violations, in exchange for turkey doing more to keep the refugees in turkey. Cost, has at tremendous an estimated 8 billion in the next last four years. With some social cost, mostly sunni syrians coming in. There is a cost. But i think it is one the europeans are willing to bear get are going to try to turkey to keep bearing. Mr. Tsereteli i think that brings us to the end of this interesting discussion. Turkey is important for u. S. Strategic interests and the nerd. Neighborhood of turkey as well. Turkey was an Economic Growth engine for neighboring countries for years. The caucasus and central asia, there is an impact there as well. We will be watching this. Hopefully we will have a chance to bring you all back to discuss it happens in the next couple of years. With that, i would like to thank the audience for being here and participating. We will see you all next week for the next forum, on november 18. Thank you. [applause] all persons having business before the honorable, the Supreme Court of the United States to admonish to draw near and get their attention. My fellow americans. Our country faces a grave danger. We had faced the possibility that of midnight tonight, the shutdown. Taking two actions tonight. First, i am directing the secretary of commerce to take possession of steel mills and continue operating. In 1952, the United States was involved in a military andlict with north korea, at home a dispute between the Steel Industry and union had come to a head. The korean war was a hot war. They needed steel for munitions, tanks, jeeps, all of those things you needed in the Second World War as well. If this still industry went on, it was going to be a real problem, it was basic to the things the army and navy needs to fight a war. To avoid a destruction of Steel Production, crucial to the military, president truman seized control of the mills. As a result, a pending strike was called off and Steel Production continued. However, the steel companies, led by the youngstown sheet and tube company in ohio, disagreed with the action and took the lawsuit all the way to the Supreme Court. We will examine how the court ruled in the case of youngstown, Company Versus sawyer, and the impact on president ial powers. Joining our discussion, michael gerhardt, professor at the university of North Carolina law school. And william howell, Political Science professor at the university of chicago. Congressionathat is coming up oe cases monday at nine at 1 p. M. Eastern, on cspan, cspan3 and cspan radio. For background, order your copy of the companion book, available for 8. 95 plus shipping at the span. Org landmark cases. Next, q and a with an author about salem witches. Then last nights democratic president ial candidate debate. After that, white house honors ceremony for a retired army this week on q a, stacy schiff a discuss her about book, the witches the fame of which trials and events leading up to them. Brian stacy schiff, author of the witches, why do people want to read about it . It, thee go to fascination with the supernatural. Partly because it seems so supernatural. Biza