Lameduck as well. Charlie cook is the founder of the Cook Political Report which is well known as the bible for what is happening around election world. Mike allen is a cofounder of axios. Casey hunt is an anchor at cnn worldwide. And National Affairs analyst as well. Theres which chief political answer at fox news, and also the anchor on the brett bear special report. And Michael Kelly on is the Congressional Correspondent for cbs. Ok. So, how come all of you got it wrong . [laughter] i mean, everybody said it would be a red wave, and all of us were expecting a red wave. What happened . I never used that word. You called it a tsunami. No, that was 1994. The thing is we expected democrats would have a challenging night. That everything seemed to be stacked against them. The house was gone and the senate, gosh, they would be lucky if they kept the losses down to one. Things obviously changed. Most of us, i dont think we ever used the word wave. Someone said it was going to be a wave. I dont know, who was it . But clearly the economy and the inflation meant less than we thought it would. Abortion and dobbs met more. I do think the candidate quality and former President Trump and maga becoming toxic. Here is the statistic. Republicans won the National Popular vote tuesday by 4. 9 percentage point. That is four points more than bidens popular vote margin was in 2020. Now, they did not get the votes in the right places. They were more republican votes cast the democratic votes . Yes. But just in the wrong places, not where they needed them. Ok, mike, what went wrong . Did you guys get it wrong or right . Before we plunge in, thanking the team for the great event. A quick shout out to my colleague sophia, one of the great rising star journalists here and who has great coverage of the cycle. It is a 5050 country. Between the 40s, we are not a this way, that way kind of countries. That was reflected in the polls. Moderation nation. What is your take . The way did i do my job, on like charlie, i dont spend time looking across the map at every race and sorting them into categories. I am not a paul stir. What i do is i talk to campaigns and operatives and candidates, lawmakers, about what they are seeing and how they are making their decisions. And the reality is much of the instrument much of the information and one of the things i look for, are republicans and democrats telling the same thing or different things. You have to sort through who is telling you the truth and who is not. Much of the best data gathering right now is being done by private organizations, many of which are partisan, some of which are not. They are daily tracking polls. When i am on tv trying to describe what is going on i said this is what i am hearing from people trying to get candidates elected. The reality was in the summer democrats felt really good and republicans were pretty stressed out except for a handful of guys in the senate like Mitch Mcconnell who were more steady the whole time. And at the end republicans felt extremely good about where they were going to be and democrats were really nervous. You had people saying things like we dont have a message on the economy, why have we not been able to get it together on this. So i think the information that campaigns were using to make decisions about what to do in the final days and weeks was reflecting a broad and deep assumption it would be a red wave. If you look at the polling there are people today arguing, the polls got it right this time, so the media, why did you get it wrong . That is a valid question, but one of the things we have seen, and the polling was wrong in 2016 and 2020, donald trump was on the ballot both of those times and a lot of people who work in polling will say that they have thought a lot about why did we not capture what happens when donald trump is on the ballot. What is going on that we screwed this up . They have tried to correct for it. The reality is he was not on the about this time. That is the other thing about political coverage i try to be acutely aware of and that is why i try to never say things like therell definitely be a red wave on television. I think casey is onto something. Publicly and privately people were telling us on both sides of the aisle that this is what they were seeing and feeling. On inflation, republicans had a big advantage in every poll about handling inflation. On immigration, on crime. And the spread was really big on handling that. 17 points for republicans. People on the democratic side said wow, this is going to be bad, and they were bracing themselves. The problem is the pundit class said the threat to democracy closed by President Biden is really misplaced, it is horrible. And the focus on abortion by democrats is misplaced, it is so summer. Well, it was not. And the threat to democracy actually enveloped donald trump. So he was not on the ballot, and yet he was. An early voting, the machinery of the Democratic Party to get the early vote and get people to the polls before election day was so superior to republicans that i do not think we fully appreciated it until the actual raw vote comes in. Tonight, Maricopa County comes in in about 10 minutes, and we should see some more races start to develop. We cant call these things because some of them are down to 80, 90 votes. Its amazing. I would argue though, to the contrary, i do not think that the media got it wrong. Our job as journalists is to tell both sides. To caseys point, talking to both sides, they were giving us different takes. I can tell you talking to Newt Gingrich a couple weeks prior to the election, he said he thought republicans would get 15 to 70 seats. You had gop conference chair police to phonic the day of the election posting a picture literally of a red wave. So i would argue it was not necessarily the media. Certainly many pundits, analysts might have been protect projecting that, but journalists were not. We were reporting what we were being told. Speaker pelosi remained very bullish up until the final minutes. Up until now, really, still bullish on democrats chances of holding the majority. Kevin mccarthy was one who, in the times i have spoken to him, never tipped his hand on how many seats he thought he could get. He always said we just need five. Leader mcconnell was very clear that this was going to be very close. So i think in terms of listening to the leaders, they were pretty clear on where they thought this would end up. I think in talking to a lot of strategists certainly before the election there were a lot of republican strategists who were very giddy and thought that this wave was coming and that is why now i think you are seeing a bit of a reckoning in terms of what went wrong, why they did not get that many seats. Rick scott was someone who projected they thought they would get 52plus seats in the senate, so now there is a push to put bash push back the leadership election. Now you have kind of a come to jesus moment for republicans but also democrats. So we have a consensus that journalists and the media people did a good job . [laughter] we were reflecting strategists. How many people voted in the last president ial election, and in this election . 159 million in 2020, and how many voted in this election . It was like 130 million, maybe. 129 million. Im talking about tomorrow, you said yesterday. 130 Million People voted in this election. How many voted in the last president ial election . 159 million . So who was the biggest winner out of the election . Ummm. The thing is, we dont know yet. Chuck schumer, right . You dont have an answer yet who you think is the biggest winner . Who is biggest loser . President trump. The guy that recruited dr. Oz. The guy that recruited Herschel Walker. The guy that went along with so, the biggest loser is trump, in your view, and the biggest winner is . I think the Republican Party, ultimately, because i think the odds of him becoming president again are getting less and less and less over the last year. So mike who is the biggest, winner in this election . Chuck schumer at the moment. But the house has not yet been called. But going into this, casey is r ight. Democrats were not particularly super optimistic. Now you have Chuck Schumer back the biggest winner we were saying donald trump was unquestionably damaged by what happened. I will say anyone that says to you in the same sentence as donald trump, this time it is different, be cautious. But there is no question he was damaged by this. Biggest winner, biggest loser . I think ron desantis is the biggest winner. He won florida by 1. 5 million votes. His performance there was astonishing. And it potentially changes the calculus for him in terms of what is on the table. And he overcame being sanctimonious . I think that might have helped him a little bit. Biggest loser . Look, i do not think it is necessarily wrong to say trump was the biggest loser. I am tempted to say rick scott, although they will have my head for saying that, because he was involved in recruiting a lot of the senate and its who just did not perform candidates who just did not perform. I think desantis comes out of this with a lot of steam behind him, and a lot of republicans shifting loyalties, i think. And in that sense he is a big winner, and he wins different counties like miamidade county, which is not been won by a republican since jeb bush. The biggest loser individually was probably doug mastriano, the candidate for governor in pennsylvania, really had no chance. But in essence, it is the people who pushed those candidates, and there it was back to donald trump. Biggest winner, biggest loser . What i will say is i do think the American People and the American Voters were the biggest winners in terms of the level of turnout we saw in this midterm. As someone who spent a lot of time and the ground in georgia we saw a record turnout on that state on par with president ial levels. So i think that says something for the state of our democracy. But i also think the American People and voters may be losers in this because government is so closely divided and so it begs the question what actually will get done. People voted because they want to see something happen, but realistically with margins so tight. Nobody has mentioned as a big winner, the president of the united states. He was not considered a big winner by any of you . Nobody . I dont think it was about him. The fact is there are two republican parties and one did fine and wondered really, really badly. So, the legacy, conventional establishment wing of the party, their candidates did reasonably well. It is the exotics. [laughter] i am stealing that from you. It is exotic and potentially problematic but my wife doesnt want me to say wacko anymore. The Runoff Election in georgia may not be as consequential as we thought a couple days ago, but who is going to win that . Just tell us now. The thing is, had President Trump acted like a 10yearold instead of a fouryearold after the november 2020 election, republicans would have held onto both seats, as they had won 20 consecutive years of Georgia Senate races. But trash in your governor, trashing your secretary of state, telling Republican Voters that your votes were not counted, it tanked their two candidates, which is why Mitch Mcconnell has not spoken to the guy since. So who is going to win that runoff . I dont think the turnout is going to look the way it did two years ago, and i think that is a challenge for democrats. There is one thing about the runoff that is really interesting. It is not controlling the senate. Chuck schumer will be sent to majority leader. However, if it is 5050, there is a sharing agreement, where the committees would be split, they would not have subpoena power, the democrats, which is the current deal now with Vice President harris breaking the tie. So for republicans there is a little on the line. It is just tough to put on a bumper sticker, we dont want subpoena power for the democrats. So there will be a little bit lack of maybe fire in the turnout. I am interested that charlie thinks this will make it harder for the democrats. I respect him very much. My initial reporting and cents was that it might be a little tougher if Herschel Walker it was going to be the senator it would be because he got 50 on election day, and there were clearly a lot of people who just could not stomach voting for him who voted for brian kemp. Are they going to bother showing up in four weeks when the senate is not on the line . It seems to me that is a harder argument to make, whereas there have been more positive reasons for democrats to show up for rough l warnock. For raphael warnock. Who will be the next speaker of the house . Mike, the next speaker of the house, will that be Kevin Mccarthy for short . It will. Hes having to fight for it anyway he certainly did not expect to. And will nancy pelosi state as the democratic leader . Mike, you must know . Im going to give that went to casey. I think it remains to be seen. In talking to a lot of tough democrats, they have made clear, even those who know and work with Speaker Pelosi very closely, even they are not sure. And i think it is because the speaker does not really tip her hand, and they know that. And so as she has made clear, she will make her decision after the election. And i think for the most part we are going to have to take her at her word. I will say in talking to some people who have worked closely with her in the past and other sources, i think the sense is what we saw her do over this past two years kind of cements her legacy, whether that was going to taiwan and getting a lot of major legislation passed on a bipartisan basis which is something leader schumer has also talked about. So i do think there are some signals that she has done things to kind of shore up her legacy. But on the same token she has been a very powerful and dynamic speaker and i think if she leaves it will be on her own term. Anyone have the view that she will leave right away, or finish the term . I am dodging, but a quick interjection. One of the Great Washington quotes of all time, Speaker Pelosi said the speaker has a lot of power. I will always have influence. If you know her, you can appreciate that. I think she is setting the table to leave. I think Hakeem Jeffries is positioning himself. Democrats in her caucus expect her to step down, and it is a plan in place she will likely be replaced by home . Hakeem jeffries. That would not be happening if it was not ok with her. That said, if theres a perception she is being pushed out, forget it. Akeem jeffries from new york is the democratic leader. What about the other people who work in the current house leadership, are they going to step aside or be challenged by younger people . We have to see exactly how it plays out. But the deal on the table at the moment is Hakeem Jeffries is able to step into the top job with an agreement with jim clyburn, the number three, to avoid splitting votes inside the congressional black caucus. Steny hoyer is still very interested in sticking around but i think there is a lot of interest in making sure there is a women in leadership so Kathleen Clark is likely to step up and run for the number two job. If clyburn wishes to stay as number three, he will be there. Tomorrow night there is supposed to be an announcement at maralago. Really . [laughter] not that you have any special insight, but do you have any views on whether President Trump is going to announce he is going to run again, or is he just going to retire and build his library . [laughter] i would take the over that he is probably owing to jump in. Although i think there are a lot of voices inside the party that are trying to at least delay that. But i think he is probably going to get in the race. I did not think he was going to for some time. But this lead up to suggest that he is. That said, the party is split and you are starting to see a lot of different dynamics. We have talked a lot about polls. There are new poles and swing states that suggest his support is diminishing. Some people were surprised that the New York Post seemed to have turned on donald trump recently. Can you tell us anything about that . Take the fifth. Is this cspan . Any insight you can give us . I will just say this. There is no internal memo from above. That is not how it happens. But i think if you read the wall street journal and the New York Post, their editorial speaks for itself. Ok. Mike, let me ask you this. This administration has gone longer than any i can recall without a cabinet officer quitting or having a scandal or something. Is anybody going to leave in the second two years of the Biden Administration . We are about to see some big changes. That is the big advantage, the big consequence of Democrats Holding the senate. It gives President Biden much more flexibility in making moves in his cabinet. He will know he can get new cabinet members confirmed. A great piece of boarding by our axios colleague is that one figure that the Biden Administration is looking to bring in is someone close to wall street, someone close to business. They want to improve their ties to business. The quote we have from the west wing was getting a 360 view of business conditions. That is one change i would look for sooner rather than later. Some people have said the secretary of treasury might be stepping down after the election. Any insights on that . No . When secretary yellen moves on, pup a couple possibilities to replace her. But that is one that people are watching. And one more immediate than that, brian deese, they have said he is going. That is a big Japanese Center of the west wing that will be open. On the republican side in the senate it has been said that somebody might challenge mcconnell to be the leader of the republicans in the senate. Does anyone have the votes to beat him . No. No, i dont. Will there be even a vote, or is it just press speculation . I do not think it is press speculation. Again, my previous comments apply. To the extent you are hearing about it in the press, it is because the press are hearing about it from people who are discontented about what is going on. I think that there was a very real divide between rick scott, the chairman of the National Republican senatorial committee, Anna Mcconnell in terms and mcconnell in terms of how things were handled. They are very upset about the way mcconnells team in their vi ew, they think he hurt the candidates and that he directed money away from those campaigns. And instead sent it to his own. Mcconnell would be quick to point to all the ways in which they were correct about all the problems these candidates had. Scott refused to intervene until the primaries. That is not how mcconnell does business. That risk is extremely real. The perception is scott was doing it for his own political benefit, it backfired, all those candidates lost. Whoever the republican leader is will be the minority leader. That is not good for any of them. They are all pissed off about it, but the reality is there is no obvious answer for anyone other than mcconnell to step into that role. And mcconnells allies are very silently in his corner solidly in his corner. Is joe biden going to run for reelection, yes or no . I dont think either will be the nominee, trunk or biden, for their party. That is not yes or no, but [laughter] today, yes. I expect him to run. No. Yes. Wow, were split. So, if he runs for reelection, will he keep his current Vice President , yes or no . Yes. 100 . If he runs, yes. If he runs, yes. Lets suppose he says i am not running, age, whatever reason. Who would you say are the leading two or three candidates to get the nomination for the democrats . I think you could look at probably 12, 15 people, half of them ran last time, and a good chunk of the others are current or former governors. So a big, big list. But you will get worn, klobuchar warren, klobuchar, buttigieg, and then some governors. If he did not run, would he endorse anybody before the convention . No. Who are candidates to be likely if he does not run . Vice president harris. I certainly think harris is likely to run. I would be surprised if she was ever the nominee. But charlie is correct, the field is wide open and a total mess, and it is a huge reason why if biden is able to run for president again, he will. Gavin newsom, you could go through a whole list. There is a cast of thousands. Jared polis in colorado. Josh shapiro is an up and comer in pennsylvania. You have a lot of newcomers and i think there is hunger in both parties to find younger blood. The republicans, if trump is not the nominee, republicans have a number of others. Lets suppose trump decides tomorrow night to say i am not running, i just dont want to run, i want to focus on other things. Who do you think are likely to be the leading candidates on the republican side, other than desantis . You stole the santos. To me, he has reverse engineered the trump appeal amazingly well. But they will be five, six, eight other people along the way, and some will be from the never trump side, the larry hogantype folks. Some will be cruz. I dont know whether nikki haley gets in or not. There is a lot of support in the Republican Party for larry hogan to be the nominee . Oh, no, i dont think he could win the nomination, but i think that people run for president for a lot of different reasons. And having a good chance of winning is just one. I would also add, lets not forget former Vice President mike pence, who was out with a book tomorrow. He has made clear he is laying the groundwork and trying to put that distance between himself and the former president. Again, you have other members of the Trump Administration like pompeo, who appears to be angling potentially. What about liz cheney. Does anybody think she will run . I do. I should say, if trump is a very real if there is a very real possibility trump will be the nominee, i think liz cheney will run. As what . As a republican. I think the thinking is if she would run as an independent, it would hurt the democrats. Vice president pence will be on special report tomorrow at 6 00 p. M. [laughter] just wanted to point that out. We think republicans have the advantage with a candidate, and the democrats dont have anyone who has been in private equity. Is that a big problem for the democrats . Are you endorsing, here . Ok, so. [laughter] what major piece of legislation, if any, can we expect out of the next two years of congress . We are going to be lucky if the government stays open the whole time. Really . Yes. There was a lot of talk when the red wave was upon us, that there was going to be an impeachment of joe biden by the republicans in the house. Anybody think that is still a possibility . No. Well, will some knucklehead introduce articles of impeachment . Of course. What about the investigation, supposedly, and subpoenas of hunter biden . Is that still likely . Yes. Not if democrats get subpoena power. And it will be titfortat and there will be a standoff. Now we are getting closer to your bumper sticker. House republicans have made clear if they take the majority, they intend to launch a number of investigations not just into hunter biden, but they want to look at everything from the origins of covid. I think you prepared to see dr. Fauci come before congress multiple times before multiple panels. They have made clear that thats something they would like to. Do they would like to get into the issue of the border and immigration thats another area where you will see more investigations and kind of the general fleecing of america in the sense of, you know, for instance Government Agencies that may overspend and digging into these g. A. O. Reports, you know, that 16 muffins at conferences which used to be a big story way back when. I think you will see republicans do a Broad Spectrum of investigations and not just focus i was going to add on the border, i think you could expect to see secretary ma your cass being brought before multiple committees according to some sources. The lame duck conference is going to do something. Dont you think samesex marriage has a chance . I mean, yes. I do think the lame duck session is a potentially different i mean, theres going to be a lot of pressure to do things in a short amount of time. Theres going to be a question on the gay marriage question. There are some major healthcare initiatives that im sure many of you who deal with healthcare stuff are interested to see what will happen before the power changes hands. The the other thing is i mean, my big question is whether theyre going the try to raise the debt ceiling. Charlie, did the Oprah Winfrey endorsement of fetterman make a big difference or not . I dont think that made a big difference. No, i dont think so. But if you were senator wornach, who would be the one surrogate . Wood. I i think i would do obama. Michelle obama which obama . Michelle. If you could get both, yeah. Yeah. I would argue when former president obama was down there campaigning on senator war nnachs behalf, there was a lot of energy in the room. I was in the room. And that type of driving the turnout driving the base, that ultimately is what somebody like senator wornach needs to win this runoff. On the trip side with Herschel Walker, one thing i have found intriguing for all the talk and alliance that he has built between himself and the former president , the former president hasnt stepped in once. Its questionable whether he will come down for this runoff. It races questions with the former president s announcement tomorrow as we expect does that help or hurt do you think Herschel Walker asked trump to come and he said im busy . What happened . Every time i ask his campaign about it, i get crickets. Well, we havent talked to them. They havent talked to us. Lets suppose you were running the campaign. Who would this surrogate be . Ron desantis. Ron desantis . 100 . I think ryan brian kemp. He overperformed hertial walk e. I mean, quite frankly, he carried the state. And so i think and we have still not seen the two of them on the campaign trail together. In fact, the night before the election, they held events like literally a couple of miles apart in the same town and neither made a cameo at each others appearances. I think if Herschel Walker wants to win this the governor said he will endorse walker. He was a Football Player to remind them you wouldnt want a Football Player campaign for Herschel Walker . Hes got his issues. They had a drop between november of 2020 and january 5, 2020. Democrats only dropped 100,000. Those are as awful a circumstance for republicans as you could find is given trump attacking everyone. Would you want a debate in this runoff or not . I think warnock does. I dont know. He may be open because the Atlanta Press club is sponsoring this debate next week. I think its doubtful that he appears because he didnt show up for the first one. But i think there are a lot of voters throughout that would like to see them side by side again because i dont think they got enough out of one debate. I dont know that the debate question really matters all that much. I think if youre Herschel Walkers campaign, the last thing you want and my understanding put out behind the scenes they tried very, very hard to keep trump out of georgia. They would like it to stay that way. But if hes announcing for president , mike allen is down there covering it. And ron desantis wants to go to georgia to campaign for hertial walker, good luck keeping him out of that next. If donald trump called you tomorrow and said, write me a paragraph on why i should be the no, maam see in what would you say if you were making the case for him . Im not in that business. You wouldnt be able to do that. I know you dont do that. What do you think is his best case. Lets not suppose youre writing it somebody else is writing it. What is the best case why he should be the nominee . I think hes going to argue that he speaks for a lot of america that others dont. And he will argue that he had the best administration in the history of the universe. [laughter] ok. And when do you think that President Biden will make his decision about whether hes going to run or not run . I always thought that he would that President Biden was most likely to run if trump was running. And they thought he would stay in and least likely to run if trump was not rung. But, you know, i had kind of thought that trump former President Trump would sort of jack his party around for four or five months. So if it does actually happen tomorrow, ill be a surprised person. I think and i would add, i think anita dunn cleared up that the president would either make that decision at tend to the year or early next year. I know we recently sat down with cedric richman. He used to be a Senior Adviser for the president who said he too thinks its more likely some time next year. I think thats the timetable were working with for a decision. As we were leading into this election, there were a lot of democrat who is were very vocal suddenly that they didnt want president bide on the run and there were editorials and Public People saying dont run, President Biden. And now post this election, there are people coming out saying he should run for reelection. So its interesting how this election will play not only in the Republican Party but in the Democratic Party as well. Lets suppose ron desantis is going to announce hes running and do you expect hes the odds on favorite other than trump to get it . Is there any other republican that has gotten the visibility leaving trump aside that desantis has . Not the availability but there are other republicans who want to get in the field. Mike pompeo has been to iowa and New Hampshire more than any other kent. Glen youngkin the virginia government who has expressed some interest in bouncing around to other parts of the country. Political graveyard were build the people that were frontrunners at this point. I remember president phil graham. How about tim pawlenty. Every nominating contest ive covered, its been like that. And my my knowledge does not go back as far as yours, charlie. But that, you know, you dont there is actually or historically has been danger in peeking too soon. People who were having this kind of a conversation at this point some time back in early, not even i guess it would be early 2014, 2015, i covered trump at all kinds of state events starting in 2013, i covered him in iowa. And nobody believed me when i said i swear to god this man is going to run for president. I was last was left out on the regular and thats where we end up, right . You kicked jeb bush was the frontrunner for a year, right . Its its just it doesnt i think its impossible to know. Mike, a lot of a fair number of House Democratic members retired and they didnt run for reelection. Had they run or most of them run, you think they would have held on to those seats because they expect add red wave and not got out early . Is that a problem for the democrats . Yes. Charlie knows it race by race but this close, absolutely. They anticipate add horrible year and and bailed out. And one thing that was remark able how few incumbents at h level lost in this election. So yeah, think a lot of them i think a lot of them any chance that the house will go democratic knowing what we now know . Any chance . Any is a big word. Do you think the republican majority will be how many seats . 222, 221. 221, 222. There are a couple of races are about 80 votes. The red wave did hit florida. And it also thats trickled into new york because there were a lot of house seats based on that zeldin run for governor that did change hands. But if you look at florida, thats about as red wavy as you can get which is where the plus 4. 9, you know, theres a lot of big the head of the House DemocraticCongressional Committee lose his seat . Patrick maloney. , no given mccarthy is going to develop a real appreciation for nancy pelosi and her skills because hes going to have his hands full and he wont be responsible for governing. And its still going to be hard for him with that kind of margin. Some people would say the republicans didnt handle well the attack on Speaker Pelosis husband. Do you think that had any impact at all or no impact on the election . Any of you . I think it had some impact in galvanizing democrats and reminding them of why it was that all of these other arguments should be considered salient this year. You know, i think there were as brett said a lot of questions about President Bidens decision to close on the democracy question. I think the attack on pelosis into that because its about political violence, january 6. How do we conduct this business, what does it mean to do democracy at the ballot box and not be other means. I do think it played into it. Im not sitting here and telling you it made the difference. But it was part of a list of things that fall into that category. I i think if it made a difference were with independents. Both sides were at 100 going before that even happened. I see. Do you think that the independence broke more for the democrats or the independents . Were talking about the pure independents, the one that is dont lean either way, four and one and two in the other. But democrats led in both. And thats unheard of. Except for 2002. Thats right. When we were look at inflation and crime and the independents were overwhelmingly going to republicans but on the abortion and threat to democracy they were overwhelmingly going to democrats. When people are polling, how do the polsters get people on the phone . Because most people dont have land lines that theyre answering any more. Getting them on their cell phones and what kind of person actually spends 30 minute minutes giving an answer to somebody . Theres good reason why private equity firms invest on polling firms. Its gotten very, very expensive. How do they actually do this . Do they get cell phone numbers . In a previous life, i worked with a polling firm and you get 20, 25 completions out of 100 calls. Now, youre lucky if you got one. I mean, just keep doing it. Theyre looking for alternative ways through text, everything. But this year actually they were pretty good. They really were. And theyre pretty good. So you would say the polsters going to change their technique . They have changed. Theyve changed a lot. There are still un undecided voters and occasionally the undecided decide. And they usually dont break down the middle. They go one way or the other. And thats what i think throw as lot of people off. The polls werent necessarily wrong. They just identified undecided. There were reports of people waiting five hours or nor vote. Seems like a long time to wait. But you heard any stories about people waiting longer than that . Sort that fairly typical in this election . People waiting four or five hours to vote . I think more times did it in three minutes. Most people do not have to walk through glass or hot coles to vote. They make it quite easy. But its heinous how long its taken to get these votes count. Florida did it in four hours. This arizona situation is unbelievable. And california is weeks if fedex can track a package around the world to my house, we should as a country be able to count votes in one night. Why you think so few losers didnt yell fraud or im going to wait for a couple of weeks to see more counting . They seem to be conceding relatively quickly in most cases system that a surprise for you . Its a happy surprise. I think i think we were prepared for some more people to challenge. But its it doesnt seem to be happening. However, again, were waiting on arizona and a couple of california race. But thats the most positive thing to come out out of this election. It really is what do you think people are thinking oversea that is the u. S. Has their democracy slightly more organized than before . Or what do you think theyre thinking about this election . Any of you . I think it will take years before we get credibility back. Years. So today, if you were advising President Biden, would you advise him to send up a lot of legislation now or just say its not going pass very much in the Republican House and just get the appropriation bills done and thats about it . Look for something you can get some agreement with. I think it will be interesting to see whether or not the part can come together. Republicans have made clear that they want to tackle it in some kind of way. You know, originally, if they got the majority, but i mean, clearly this was one of the defining issues of the election, you know, according to our exit poll, i think it was Something Like especial 710 voters expressed that the economy and the inflation was one of their stop concerns. So how do they get at that issue and can they get at it in a meaningful way . We saw obviously the Inflation Reduction Act passed. We saw there was talk about trying to, you know, ease the gas tax whether or not that kind of talk will come back again, i dont know. But to me that seems like a good starting point for both parties if they want to try to deliver on some of these concerns. Republicans have said in the house, they were going pass legislation to get rid of the 85,000 i. R. S. Agents. Is that likely to pass at this point . Or can they get this through . It might pass the house. Its not going to pass the senate. I think its 87,000. [laughter] would the republicans take advantage of their majority if they have the majority of the house pass legislation that they know cannot pass in the senate . Yes, thats called a messengering bills. Democrats have been doing it for years. In the previous congress, senator manchin and the senate have enormous amount of power. Now, if the democrats lets suppose they win in georgia, is manchin going to be able to have that kind of power or will that have faded . If they can win that seat in georgia, it will be the best thing that has happened to manchin because he can vote against every nominee. He can vote against every piece of legislation. Lit make it easier for democrats to change legislation somebody else to beat joe manchin. Kristen cinema becomes their bare problem or the person that she will love. Shes clearly enjoying the time time in the spotlight that she has. Manchin is facing a very, very difficult relax fight in 2024. Thats a really difficult flies be. That makes that race more interesting. If its 50 50, the recruit. Of christensen cinema will be front and center for Mitch Mcconnell. Whos the biggest fresh face in the Democratic Party that has emerged from this election . A fresh face, you know, can really get a lot of National Attention . Demic side maxwell frost. Hes the first gen z member of congress. 25. Was this activist for march for our lives. Talk about a fresh face. I think you know, he was just in high school a couple of years ago. So it doesnt get much fresher than that. But he does bring a lot of energy, i think to the position that he will be replacing congresswoman value demings who wasnt successful for va al demings who wasnt successful for her senate run. I think hes one to watch. How about katie brits in alabama . Katie brits is great she was chief of staff for senator shelby. Now senator from alabama. Josh shapiro for me was the candidate that really encompasses a really good race for governor of pennsylvania what about wes moore. In maryland, yeah. Fresh face and a lot of should say he should run for president or Something Like that at some point . Sure, i mean, i think hes going october pie a space thats a little different from josh shapiro. Shapiro took some interesting positions in the race including on issues on School Choice and education and covid that i i think sort of give him a profile for a general election thats a little bit different than a wesmoore. But i see him as snap the people are watching throughout. I also think i am interested to see how fetterman continues to recover from his stroke because i think if that health event had not happened, hi would be someone who is very, very talked about as a very forward face for the party that obviously considered his challenges has really receded. But if he does make a full recovery Dave Mccormick has been the republican nominee in pennsylvania, you think he would have won that seat . Absolutely. Agree. I do. But connor lam would have beat dr. Oz. If he wouldnt use the word coup detat would that be a big difference . Or talk about the steelers on a bye week. [laughter] ok, today, you would expect no major legislation actually to go through in the next two years other than the appropriation bills and the debt limit . Theres nothing the democrats can get through the house, probably. And republicans cant get anything through the senate. Again, thats what makes the lame duck conversation so critical. Theres the count act, that was a big bipartisan effort right before the election just to insure that what happened on january 6th doesnt happen again in terms of defining the role of congress an defining the role of the Vice President more clear limb and again, i think we have to watch the samesex marriage bill. We know that leader has a vote on it later this week i dont know when the final vote could be. Thats another bipartisan effort that we have seen from the senate. So if anything, maybe theyre going at a lame duck. I would say with margins so tight that if you had a compromised bill on any big issue, you could swing, you know, 10 votes and move legislation. So if you go around the edges on immigration. If you have some economic bill that you could get, you know 10 democrats, vote with republicans, or vice versa. Theyre going to go through the lame duck. Do you think something is going to get done other than the lame duck . Think theyve got the vote on the republican side. I would say no, the senators who are involved would like to get that we havent mechanicer mentioned that much and ukraine funding too. Thats another big priority. For a while, the democrats emphasized the abortion issue too much. But maybe that didnt hurt them. Do you think that helped or hurt them, the abortion issue. Autonomy and inflation more or less. But i think just having lousy republican candidates and in a couple of key house gubernatorial races made more difference than that. But the abortion issue. This is something im fascinated by this because weve gotten so used to covering it and thinking about it in a roe vs. Wade caught contact. Theyre not breakable. It sets the Political Landscape for activists on the right who are the most sys tent and motivated activists but also like mobilizers of voters, right . If you leak at the numbers in terms of voters, this time vs. The last Midterm Election has literally flipped on its head. 75 democrats said abortions mobilized them i think thats the thing that a lot o republicans are trying to figure out because they went from being the people who could very easily car caricature democrats by saying they dont support any re instructions. The public will support a certain number of restrictions at a certain point. But because the way the elite or the opinion was written. And given what some of these states are doing in determines of no exceptions but i think thats going to change. I think youre going to see more an murder republicans saying theres no longer the umbrella of row senior wade. And now, theyre going to come back and there will be exceptions for rape and incest and that will set the political table. When yo interview a member of congress, what percentage of the time do you think theyre telling you the truth . 100 . 90 . 80 . Definitely, right around 50. [laughter] what about you . What percentage is it . It depends on the person. It depends on the person. The toughest part is trying to figure out who is telling you the truth more than 50 of the time. Of all the people that you have covered, whos the most impressive political figure youve ever interviewed . Anybody you say this president should be president . Or this person is too good to be president . Senator obama. Senator obama. You knew he was going places . Really . And charlie, whos the most impressive political figure why didnt you ask least . Wow. I may have to work on that. Its a long list or short list. Every time i start to come up with somebody, i think of exceptions or dependent enough when you were about to talk to them. I think this person may be present some day. One of them went to jail. You know, but there are 75 members of the house who live in their offenses because they cant afford another house in washington. If they raise their salary, maybe they could afford it. Is there any chance that congressman will change their salaries . I think its a good question. I think whats interesting is there whole Unionization Movement that weve seen in congress or this you know, over the past year or so because its just the rankandfile staff. Theyre having to work multiple jobs. They, you know, have been under a lot of stress because of what happened with january 6th and covid still. I think that was a big step forward to increase the base pay to 45,000 a year. Possibly, i dont know that its so john zeiger had a great every member of congress should put how much they want to make. Their salary would be on the ballot next to their name, and let Voters Decide on a free market approach. You all probably know the 27th amendment to the u. S. Constitution is the madison amendment. It was in the original bill of rights that went out to the states, it had 12 amendments in the constitution. The states ratify 10. One of those original 12 which was not ratified which was the one that said members of congress cannot pass cannot get the Salary Increase until after the next election. The theory was if members of Congress Want to increase their salary they should face the voters before that goes into effect. There was voted down by the states. Why was that . They thought members of congress should never get a Salary Increase and that is why they voted it down. Now we have the 27th amendment. I would like to thank our panel for an interesting conversation. [applause] we have a very heavy prize or award. Thank you. Very heavy. Wow, thank you, david. Thank you for having me. Ok, thank you all, thank you all. [applause]