Been really troubling i think to democrats and all those in arizona, they have been relying on campaigns, ads, all the traditional ways we are learning about our candidates. But the fact that she did not debate is a Sticking Point in arizona and across Democratic Candidates. Host thank you, enough t we take you now to a forecasting of the result for the he is he has coauthored the bestselling book, and news junkies have no doubt seen him as a political analyst on nbc and abc news. We are proud to have a pro moderator, he is a long respected veteran of political reporting from washington and the white house. You may know him from his many reports and analysis from cnn and the nbc. One of the best. I turn it over to you, john. To add to your introduction, i think that more salvador dali. I may be going into a blue. I would like to start by giving each of our getting each of our panelists to respond to a court question. Im going to learn much as the members of the audience will learn. The court question is this, the core question is this, we are well aware of the historical ties of elections, and with close to no exceptions, the Midterm Elections, the president loses the. It becomes a magnet of discontent. Peace out with president clinton, they lost control of the senate and came back up for reelection. Same with barack obama. It was a baked into the expectations that this is going to be a be out bad Midterm Elections for democrats. What ive heard in the last year and a half, is that you cannot take the old rules and this environment, the polarization is extreme, january 6 created a new context, donald trump is a unique and Divisive Political figure who changes the balance of forces in the race. Rachel, to what extent do you think we will end up with a an election driven by historical patterns of versus conditions that are unique to this time. Thank you, john. When i worked in 2018, when i worked on in 2018 was bringing political analysis uptodate and view voter behavior and meaningful ways in not only what we think of midterm effects on Election Night of 2020 is when i began to think of the 2022 midterm as clearly we would have a messy and to the trump tenure. The status quo bias as john described, in my busk in my book i laid out extensively for folks, what the reference to draw on and determined political stimuli is. Some semblance of the electorate will blame the president , the party in power, for whatever is going on. It could be for what they did or pandemic inflation it doesnt matter. Winning the midterm back will be incredibly difficult. I should i will say we should expect to see Something Different than 2018, we had a standard midterm, the out party, was energized from negative partisanship to to vote. Instead, but we are going to see our two really engaged electorates, and the early voting data, the elections that have occurred since roe, a contained a contingent of democrats have been engaged by the overturning of roe. And candidates have focused on issues that dominate with being the out party such as gas prices. End inflation and so forth. We have voters behaving differently than they did 20 years ago, and we are going to contact conduct a midterm with things we have never had in the system. At the same time, i think we should expect to see some republican advantage, some seachange, the midterm effects and its just a question of how much speed democrats are able to lunch that, i would be blunt that, it becomes about management and trying to mitigate that law. I do not think that there is any disagreement on the unique contours of the moment that we are in, i think this will be the most consequential election that the country faces since 1860, if you look at all of the patterns of this. We are in that moment, there was never a time when a pollster asked about an issue, threats to democracy, that was never on a question to anyone, and thats top of mind of voters. The number one issue for democrats is threats to democracy followed by roe versus wade and threats to choice of followed by inflation. It is very difficult to describe this election and give odds and describe what will happen without saying i think, fundamentally, micro c is at risk in this election, i believe joe biden was correct. I wish that that speech was given many more times in a much stronger way, i know we will talk about that in a moment. There is no red wave or blue wave, this is not 2010 or 2018. This is 1994 this is not 1994, or 1982, none of those years. The threat to democracy, and not democrats have nominated normal candidates, i dont think that there would be any question of what happened here. They did not across the board. Thats where i think this election, i know there is the historical obviously, i am open i am fully aware of where that is but we are in a moment that i believe none of us have seen in our lifetime. Then i will give you one data point that i believe has been ignored by a lot of people. The data point is, among people that somewhat disapprove of the president , about 15 of the electorate that number is normally won by the out party by 30 points. Some what disapprove, not strongly, 95 vote for publicans. Normally, the in party loses it by 30 points. Joe biden, for the last two months, in the somewhat disapprove the democrats have been worstcase split that vote. Split the people that disapprove of the president. What that tells me, and this is what i think democrats could have done a better job of, and we will get data on this, what makes this election i think anybody who says this is what will happen on Election Night as fulling fooling you. I think this election will be decided by a few hundred thousand votes. Which way they will swing i cannot tell you, but there will be 120 million plus people voting in this election and the elections will be decided by a couple hundred thousand votes. That is the reality that we are in. I want to turn to somebody who ive known for a long time, charlie who would never lie to an audience, which is why he is the closer. I put that question to you and your colleague, and this is when was saying no, throughout the world throw out the rules. Amy said gravity, at the end of the day gravity will prevent the Democratic Candidates from running far from joe biden. That ultimately will weigh down democrats as we get to november. Is that what we are seeing right now . Charlie i think that amy and i are on the same page that fundamentals matter. We have seen every indication that it would be a classic Midterm Election and august and september did not. Starting in october it looks like every classic midterm that we have seen. Personally, while i acknowledge that none of us can be certain of anything anymore, i feel virtually certain that the house is gone. I think its fairly likely but democrats lose control of the senate and i very deliberately choose the phrase democrats lose two republicans win. I do not think the republicans will prevail because they have better candidates or their policy ideas or what they are saying, doing or have done, i think we have seen and epic misreading by President Biden and the democrats about what the 2020 election was about and didnt epic misreading of the economy and 2021. I think that democrats we are a very amazingly evenly divided country, i look at the last six president ial elections and four of them have each had margins that were less than the population of my hometown of shreveport, louisiana which is only 180,000. The thing is, when you have an evenly, narrowly divided country when you win the presidency by 26,000 126,000 votes in two set two states. When you hold onto the house and you hold on to the house by 32,000 votes total, you dont have a mandate to do squat. Now we are in an era, and republicans were like this in 2006 teen and democrats in no when is too small. They look at polling data like russia tests they read into it what they like more shack test rorsach tests t i believe it was a miscalculation. Joe biden won the election because he was in Bernie Sanders and he wasnt donald trump. An agenda that they say is historic and transformational, they just wanted things to be normal again, they werent looking for fdr to paraphrase congresswoman spanberger. To press you on that point, is that your way of saying that President Joe Biden shouldve come into office and done nothing and past budgets and said ok, we are going to calm down and not try to press priorities. When you have a divided country there is not a single message from the electorate, or the the party that elected and nominated joe biden, wanted certain things done. Are you sick they shouldve stepped away from those things . To me, 126,000 votes out of 120 million cast is a rounding error. Im not talking about a mandate im just saying you start with a Coronavirus Relief package, that is may be one fourth of the size that that they did and then you go with infrastructure and you tell people to shut up sit down, if you were designing a bill to get note republican support it would not look like build back better. There was no more change for democrats after 20 then there was for democrats after six. 16. I would like to press you on the notion of the epic miscalculation. If this happens with each new president , that would suggest that there are forces beyond the president and his chief of staff and political analyst that stuff the outcome. Is that also to say that clinton screwed it up, obama screwed it up, reagan screwed it up, they all screwed it up . I think the opposition cases none of them were as weak as republicans were coming into this one. We have never had an out party that looked as unappetizing as the republicans have. They were going to win because of who they are not. Not because of who or what they are are who where they have stood. As ive said, politically, it was misreading the election and economically, how could you have been more wrong about the economy . Seriously . Inflation would not be a problem . It would be transitory . And you would blow the howl out of hell out of a that before the president took office. I will say my heart and this part in this, and im a huge fan. I dont think that there is anything that joe biden could have done to have change the outcome from a policy stem put. Joe bidens numbers fundamentally started turning down as global inflation fundamentally turning down, if the weight that afghanistan was covered to and we look at nonmembers the numbers. And then global inflation hits, france faces it, germany faces it, job approval today is 45 percent. About exactly on average every president , not george w. Bush who had 9 11, every president who faced a midterm. I will say from a communication standpoint i think that that dynamics regardless of what joe biden had done in the presidency or not he wouldve been at a 45, third 43 43 approval rating. I agree with them about 20 million about 2020, though i would argue was a 7 million margin. But i get the Electoral College number in this. To me, i think the problem fundamentally was communications. Not the policy he pushed. The communications. Not in 2020 one, but for the last six months. Rachel, let me invite you in here and add another element to this question. With charlies formulation, there is no chance that you would do anything, for example on Climate Change. Which is part of what they did as the Inflation Reduction Act that ended up with bill back at her. Do you agree with as a matter of political strategy and make yourself healthier and 2022, they have set they shouldve set aside priorities like that to appeal to a broader portion of the electorate . I think you need to unmute. Somebody always does that. [laughter] im glad it was me. I did not have a direct line to joe biden, if i had, i would have told him that you might want to make the inaugural speech a little different than you plan to because you ran that speech under the assumption that we will have a normally functioning country with a normally functioning opposition party. If you tell people you are going to do all of the stuff you will need to do some of it. I do think they strategically screwed up by not making whats happening in america crystal clear. None of this is normal. When you stand on the stage after an armed insurrection and do the same political stuff with political spin, that normalizes the abnormal. Anything that normalizes what the Republican Party does on a deviating daytoday basis is poor strategy. You referred to the secret deal with mansion that saved the beast of this progressive dispirited base. At the end of the day, he could do everything or nothing. It is not what you do, it is what people think that you do. And our system operates on the assumption that millions of people will walk into the ballot box, and make an informed choice as to whether they want to live under and autocracy or democracy. Most people do not watch news, read local news, it doesnt pop up on their algorithm. They dont know the things that we know. It will come to status quo bias. Gas is high, inflation, going with that. But its going to come down to, what kind of strategic answer democrats bring to the problem of eight dishonest and very aggressive opposition party. This mulling through and hoping that if we we hope that things will just essay normal approach, i believe it was broadly defined by the electorate. You are voting on whether your child will live in a Free Democratic america. I think we did that later on. I think that we have seen the effect, it could be critical to a 2024 election. Given that, making clear to america as best we can without the assistance of Media Coverage that on their ballots is autocracy versus democracy and what that means to them on a personal level and what it would be like to live under an economy made by one party or to own a business, that is how they did it in nazi germany, they got the Business Community to join the cult the revolution and then they took over the board room. As charlie pointed out, they dont look great to the house. As for the floors of democracy. At the same time, but we should be looking at one week from this election cycle, and im convinced without roping repealed this year or next year, we should look at forecast like charlie. Charlie cook. They have a strong strategic operation on the right, it is better than arms across the board. I think ultimately its about excepting that the system is always exploitable, there will always be a immigrants that gets in and kills a girl or whatever. It comes to us accepting that we need to play hardball the way they play it. The characterization of inflation, are inflation shot up before comparable countries dead. Long before the russian invasion of ukraine. Our inflation shut up shot up , on the back of two previous rounds of stimulus and inflation shot up long before the war with the war in ukraine. Before i disagree with the idea that the president was a victim of global circumstance, no. It shot up long before these other countries had their inflation go out. Let me just say, charlie knows there is no, not an ounce of economic down to Economic Data that says stimulus leads to read it i dont want to argue joe bidens economic policies. All i am saying, my bottom line is that joe bidens bottom approval number today is the same as any president s except for george w. Bush in a midterm. Again, you are getting to my point. If the issue is that they are bad communicators in every president and sup with a disapproval rating, it deems to be that you are saying each of those president s had a bad communications system, rather than this is a force embedded in our politics in the way that politics works over and over again with respect to the institutions. I want to go to something that you said, i wouldve argued but for the last four years that the weight of the midterm always comes into play. This is different. We have not seen this is a different year because there is a large segment of voters that believe there is a threat to democracy in america, today, a large segment of voters believe that. I agree with rachel that the did namic of this race, the can the dynamic of this race, if you understood where we are in this country, the president , every person in this country should have drawn a line and make this entire campaign about that. If the normal standard of the midterm falls in the play, they have no chance. If they argued about inflation, or the economy, they had no chance. The chance they have is the consequence of the consequential election we have today. I think the democrats will do better than normal, i think they will win races that they normally would lose but for the republicans being bananas in this time. I dont think its going to be a red wave, it may be a red trickle in the course of this. My problem with their communications is not sending the line setting the line and spending the 4 billion that they have spent to say that this is the dynamic of the election and this is what matters. I want to move to a different topic. I suspect you disagree, charlie . Just about all of it. Lets talk about specific races. The house races are somewhat more influenced by the election in a broad sense. You have a bunch that are very close, which is why people say, toss, may be republicans favored a little bit but we dont know the outcome. When you think about pennsylvania, nevada, georgia, arizona, may be on the fringes ohio and north carolina, do you see these dominoes falling in the same direction . Is there going to be something more idiosyncratic about the result . Historically, the dominoes tend to fall in a clear direction. In fact, in the last four elections that we have had, republicans have one the lion share of the tossup senate races in all four. And in the house in three out of four and in 2000 20, for example when the blue wave became the dead sea in the last week or two, you had every single tossup race in the country went republican. Every single one of them. I think that a lot of the rhetoric that had taken place during the democratic president ial primaries came back to haunt them. In the summer of 2020. Whether it is a defund the police or Green New Deal or whatever, it is a foundation of the lack of diversity that both of our parties have, but i think that the leaders are so obsessed with reaching the bases that they dont know what undecideds look like or pure independence look like. I think that while there are a bunch of close ones, arizona, New Hampshire maybe even colorado on the democratic side. At the end of the day i think nevada, ohio, pennsylvania, i think whoever wins the three of the four will be the majority in the house in and in the senate, and that i i believe will be republicans. I think the pollsters privately worry about that. Rachel i think to ask you about a specific race, what do you question i hear from acquaintances who maybe dont work in politics. How in the hell is Herschel Walker and a position to win a United States senate race given the way he has performed on the trail, the set of issues and controversies and scandals that have trailed him, running against a respectable democratic opponent, i dont know how you qualitatively assess him, but what does it say about our politics and how is it that Herschel Walker may be the next senator from georgia . I would like to explain this to folks, in american politics because we have a pretty bad and starved civic culture, most people form their political opinions on a party heuristic. Mostly voters who are professed independence lien toward democrats or republicans and then 95 of the time they lien toward they lien toward that party. Research every year on the elections has shown that ticket voting has increased dramatically, its not true that we have two parties with homogenous ideology, they are hetero jenness in ideology, but the spectrum the modal spectrum on the left is still moderate. Those are still important points to keep in mind when you think about behavior. Because we look at the Alabama Special Senate rely between roy moore and doug jones. That was the democrat who won that special election, when we look at the polls, we see that 90 of republicans still voted for roy moore after very credible allegations of serial child molestation. Do you i believe do i believe that the majority of rightleaning independence and republicans will vote for Herschel Walker . I do. We see layton partisans who are now getting to me a which we see latent partisans who are now getting an injection of funds. Our polling structure is very challenged. It is never designed to tell us who will win a tied race. They have a statistical marginal error of two or three points, so it is impossible for them to tell us that. One thing i would say to certainty is, i am equally certain that the democrats will not only hold their house seats but peek them up pick them up. And i use nothing but imperial data to make those assumptions, and thats not what happened, they lost 14 seats in the house in 2020, thats why they are in so much danger of losing the house now. Its not 20 seats, it is five. There is room for people to go into Election Night understanding that the results of the house will take days to know, and it was an extremely hard lift for democrats to hold the house without margin. If they only one the senate, it would have to be all three governors, if you want free and Fair Elections in 2020, i would be through the roof. We have shored up some of these campaigns. There are campaigns that are running aggressive, hyperbolic, branding operations. I would never bet against it. Matthew dowd should be able to tell you this, the Republican Party has perfected the art of voter manipulation and turnout. We dont have a system close to met ching that two matching that. It is about how much reform can we push in two years, if we can keep a red wave to a red trickle, we will be talking stridently about how strong of a performance democrats gave. Max Rachel Rachel referred to the difficulty to get good samples in polling, and compensating for problems not always successfully. Lets talk about a different structure, the structure of election administration. After the 2020 election after 20 after january 6, the attempts to jigger the election at state and local level, when do you think we will receive the results of this election and how confident are you that it will fairly reflect the will of the voters . I will take a second question first, i am very confident that the election results, and we have them will be a fair and accurate representation of what the people of the state wanted i am very confident of that, 99. 9 of the people who are in place today, which could be different on november 9, are competent and want to do the job and do it well. The second depends on the jurisdiction, the state and jurisdiction that is involved. A place like New Hampshire will have it fairly quickly and fairly certainly very fast. They do it well and fast. You have a republican governor and secretary of state, both believe in elections and democracy in that way. It is a state that we will know fairly quickly, directionally, where the selection is headed. I think thats where this election is headed. I think that that will indicate what is going to happen in a United States senate race. But in a place like california we probably wont know for at least a week. Arizona could take four days in the course of this. I do not think we will know who won the United States senate, we may have ideas about it. Who won the United States senate and who won the United States house for at least 48 to 72 hours after election date. We might have a good indication of what seats who need to be called are headed but we will not know with certainty until about two or three days after election day. I want to put out another question to charlie, and then we will go to questions from our audience. Charlie, half you talked about the threat to democracy so democrats should elevate that as a core issue in the campaign. I have heard many them accredits make the opposite the opposite argument. Saying that they should talk about inflation. Do you think, personally, that the threat to democracy has been exaggerated, overhyped, or do you think there is a genuine question depending on the outcome of the election verbally go the next couple of years, do you think there is a genuine question as to whether our democracy is preserved. Ask my wife calls me a pathological optimist. But i have real concerns. I think theres a feeler fair amount of hyperbole on both sides. When you have the highest turnout since 1914, we have had the highest president ial turnout and 120 years, there were not many votes suppressed, and it might not been for a lack of trying but i think confidence in our institutions and our elections is eroded. It is being eroded more by what republicans are saying doing then what from pop then what democrats are, but when you have Stacey Abrams going for over a year saying that it was the Voter Suppression that undermines confidence. But i dont know, how many republicans who are saying that they are not sure that joe biden won the election, how many of them actually believe that and how much of it is the path of least resistance, because i think in a lot of situations as a republican, if you said, i disagree with everything that President Biden has done or that joe biden has done as they probably would make probably they would say, i believe that he won fair and square. That would be basically saying i dont when to win a republican primary gun and i dont want republicans to turn out in the general election. Its not excusing their behavior but, in terms of the people that would be in a secretary of state job, or an ag jobs or certain other positions, i am worried about that. But, i think the democrats any time democrats talk about anything other than the economy and inflation, they are basically sending the message, i dont get what is scaring the hell out of most of you. I think a lot more people are scared of the economy than they are about threats to democracy. You know that questions show threats to democracy are so high, they usually accept two or three of the biggest problems. Not the single most. It is not up there. It is not up there with the economy and inflation. Just isnt. I invite you to return to the screen and begin helping us parse some audience questions. Im not trying to hide. Im always mugging. Good. That was a terrific and sobering conversation that ive heard from you so far but we have heard a few questions on the board, i want to start with cans of ascii ken sebaski. The question i have is the Democratic Party does, Republican Party that, but it strikes me that one of them is a party and the other is a fragmented fraction to group that has a hard time speaking with a single voice and has a hard time mobilizing with a single voice, which by definition makes it difficult to compete with the other party that is a very good at that. Very good at understanding what them one message needs to be and aligning and mobilizing their troops to be that way and i say that sitting here in alabama being a big small blue dot in a red ocean and wondering what the heck. The Democratic Party is its own worst enemy. Rachel, why dont you take that . Unmute. Ken, you are not wrong. I knew that on Election Night 2020, that we needed to fix major Communications Issues that will be difficult to do because we are taking paths to centralize them and it would be best to do it through a super pac where you didnt need to answer to the needs of this bureaucracy. It has been difficult to affect those changes. Theres been more ground work on the side. Some of the establishment side has been making chances changes as well. I only want to save and make sure that people understand that this is a problem with the party is aware of, work is being done there is much work to do and if we hadnt next at least some of the problems we would be in a much worst position. When we look at where we are doing well, it is with candidates who are running aggressive, random oriented, strong band brand fasteners brand ambassadors, and painting what change will look like under this definition of the Republican Party. Those messages will have the best resonance. I would like to build empirical analysis to show where we need progress on this tree and how much of the gap we closed. How much of the reform messaging made a difference and where we still have room to grow. Again, thats three midwestern governorships that are critical that will give us time to make critical changes. I realize that i am part of the war in the church house metaphor. I disagree with the premise that the Republican Party has moved further to the right than the depalma then the Democratic Party has moved to the left. Davids is not show that. Republicans have also data does not show that. Republicans have gone to a cult of personality and then on this jack in authoritarianism, on a straight left right basis, i think the democrats have moved further to the left than republicans to the right. But republicans have moved in other directions as well that are fairly bizarre. Dont you think, charlie, that the specter of violence that has been raised by events, not just january 6, but the statements and behaviors of republican candidates, isnt that a profound change . I dont think that violence is liberal or conservative. It is horrifying. It is absolutely unacceptable but it is the conservative party that is raising the can there is raising the specter of violence, not the Democratic Party. I think that the temperature you quoted amy walter, she was meeting with the republican strategy just strategist in 2020, they went through polling data in key states. At one point she asked him, whats the likelihood of surviving this . People want to know who is going to make my life normal again. That is what people were looking for in that election, and then after that election i was talking to a house member, fairly moderate, and i asked him, what do you think the voters were saying, and he said, dont being and an asshole or a socialist. If you one by an fdr landslide, it would be warranted but when you go with an aggressive genda agenda like that you are going to move the numbers the other way. Joe biden has a 45 strong disapprove. We are talking about for someone who is not an offensive guy in any way for him to have a 45 strong disapprove in the nbc poll, something needed to create that got him there. I know that charlie wants to be the skunk and i i dont hate to be one, i am a guy who worked for george w. Bush and arnold schwarzenegger, it is patently false to say that the center of the country is not where the democrats are on almost every single issue. If you look at the center of the country, do they want an increase in minimum wage, gun reform, health care for all, do they want roe v. Wade, do they want all of these work done on Climate Change . In every single issue if you ask where the center of the country is its where the democrats are. You have outliers that go like you would, at the center of the partyware nancy pelosi puts the line in the sand in the house, is much more aligned to do the center of the country than republicans are. Republicans are opposed to roe v. Wade, or post any gun reform, opposed to increasing the minimum wage. When we say that, yes, the democrats have moved to laughed but that country has moved the left. Gay marriage. Almost every single issue, weve moved laughed. The center is better aligned to where the democrats are then where the republican are on every single issue. I think we need to leave room for audience questions. Lacks shirt. Im going to ask patricia to call on more questions. Chuck, asked, what do you think that the impact is of the january 6 committee hearings, if any . Substantively, i think it had a huge impact. Ed is absolutely necessary in the moment we are in to hold people accountable. Subsidence will subsidence will he it is good for our country. In the moment. It helped democrats combined with a lot of other things in the summer, combined with the Supreme Court decision and a number of other things that raised the standard for democrats where they were behind and then by the end of the summer they were up by two or three. I dont know how that was, but for today, because nobody is talking about it because it is not on the air, liz cheney is talking about it but it is not on the air, its not in the conversation, democrats are making a full throated argument tying this together. Substantively, i think it is important, but it doesnt have an impact on the election. Patricia . From david williams, he wants to know, about the Ohio Senate Race. Let me get through three quick data points that jim ryan can win in ohio. One, largest number of registered female voters second only to kansas. Republicans, and lets remember, the original antitrumper, john kasich, there are a lot of republicans in ohio who are prepared to vote for tim ryan. What do you guys think . I thought for a long time that the Ohio Senate Race shouldve been in the taza category, in my mind, it is. Tossup category, in my mind it is. I think it is unreal the poor Financial Support that tim ryan has received. If he just barely wins, there will be questions asked about why did so much money going to places that loss by wider margins. I said i suspect that will happen. I think he is the most outstanding candidate of either party in the country. And he went . Can he win . Ohio, is a state like iowa, every four years it has become more hostile. He is very in a shared ground, running in that ilk. The question is can you bring another one in . I dont know. I know that ohio has maintained competitiveness is why i am not willing to join charlie on the train because he is absolutely right that you can pick up any tickle science forecasting book you can pick up any science forecasting book and it will show that it is not good. But i think that partisanship has changed things. I think that there is a potential, we just dont know what is happening in the electorate very well with the new registrants, the new turnout. I dont know who tim ryan is targeting. In the tactical operation i think that matters, in pennsylvania we are seeing strong returns from the federman fetterman youth vote. They are also talking about a contest that could come down to either think that the fact that its been contented of it as evidence that republicans blue what their Real Advantage was, the midterm effect, when they dismantled roe v. Wade in august. I i agree parliamentary in the house and senate. I think having a candidate with a metabolism problem which is a nice way of saying lazy and another candidate that is extremely aggressive, sometimes on the margins that can make a bit of a difference. I realize democrats spring in ohio because it is a six or eight points republican than a country as a whole. Ryan has hung in there as he has suggests that republicans hit the panic button earlier because they knew their guy wasnt under performer. I think its going to be extremely close. I wouldnt be flabbergasted if tim ryan one. I would add to what charlie and rachel said. The interesting thing is, i know we were talking about this, mike dewine is going to win by 18 points. That means even if tim ryan was to lose, which i actually think the odds of him winning is 5050. The race is at play. Even if he will lose, he is going to split, 16 of voters in ohio will split their ticket. Youve got a similar ticket dynamic in pennsylvania, not as large but you have a substantial margin in the pennsylvania governors race. And in New Hampshire. Sununu. I would love to see every party awarded on the senate side , for example the ability to do political mulligan one month before an election switch out your weakest candidate because i do think republicans would get rid of Herschel Walker in a heartbeat and the democrats would get rid of John Fetterman in heartbeat. I never thought because of his health issues, i thought John Fetterman was a terrible candidate. In pennsylvania i dont know whos going to win. The better candidates in each candidate came second each party came second in the primaries. That is speaking of what is happening in the parties come of their becoming ideological. Ok. Were going to get you right now. We will go to a brief and go to christine. One more question after that. Thank you, christine. Hello, thank you. I read several articles that republicans are making inroads with younger black and latino men. Im starting to worry about shrinking democratic populace who actually votes in both midterms, not registered voters would likely voters. Have you read the same thing or heard the same thing . Does it give you cause for concern for democrats in the future especially for states like georgia or nevada, and of course texas, everybody kept her beating predicting texas would balloon. It never happened. Rachel . I want to make it clear. What the republicans are doing within the latino voter file is return on investment. Its best in the voter pool that is not getting contact. Thats being tragically under invested in. You start hitting them with, hey, democrats are mouth breathing socialists that will groom your male children and turn them into girls. Its going to be effective. They bought a ton of spanish radio and got smart. Its an easier party to come in and shake things up. The idea of spending money in a critical race in florida, hunting latinos was a pretty radical idea. [laughter] yet someone in the Republican Party was like, hey, if we have this divide on education, republicans have made gains in the noncollege educated whites in the midwest and other places, with brenda busting, brand busting, stuff that will not get them to vote for democrats. They started to pull that resource and methodology into targeting latinos. It was a brilliant strategy. They have built four years of infrastructure. The democrats are beginning to build some furious permanent latino outreach. I would expect we will see increased gains for them. It will be because republicans built innovated this latino contact operation, we have no match for as of today. 20 or 30 years ago, people started writing that democrats are having a problem with white men. We started hearing the democrats had a problem with working class whites. And more recently with workingclass latinos and africanamericans. And with africanamerican and latino men. At some point, theres a pattern. The pushing of the cultural agenda and certain issue agenda, its obviously not resonating with certain segments of the electorate. While democrats were doing a lot better with suburban voters and women, they were bleeding it out on the others. Now, we find that they bleeding support of suburban women as well. That tells you what kind of jam the democrats are in. I feel the urge to doubt. The Republican Party tried to overthrow the government. Theres something more that has to occur between the voter and the occurrence. Im arguing, to make clear at least, im arguing, it is a communication deployment. If you are telling heres the thing, i hear democrats say this all the time, weve left the workingclass behind. In terms of culture, yes. Assuming the workingclass which i think is a wrong assumption is socially conservative christians. Cultures need some segment leave some segment of the population behind. Its an exploitable aspect. What democrats are doing within that voter file is trying to argue the facts. Its no true there is no crt. What they dont realize is they have to match hyperbolic propaganda, motive, grievance politics into that voter. Pilot the same time when we think about erosion. Its true. All of these groups have eroded. The reason the line is education, my friends, is because the people who dont have strong educational backgrounds to inoculate themselves from propaganda are the ones that are going to be most susceptible to the effects of it. Wire democrats because they are the end party are the opposite. Thats what their challenges always been the cycle, can they disrupt the midterm . Getting them to accept it was coming took me a year and the sacrifice of the state of virginia. It was they didnt win because they were fantastic people they won because it was republican. Lets go to one or two more questions. For all of the problems mentioned of the republicans won the popular vote in the last 30 years. All of the problems the democrats have, the problem democrats have is the distribution of their voters in the structural political system that exists today in america. It is a problem. Overwhelmingly, when you hold the National Popular vote, the democrats are heavily favored, even with all of their losses among demographic groups. Thats true in president ial races. We have one more from christina. Can you be very brief, please . Hi, yes, i was wondering if the panelists could talk about the republicans in virginia. We see her trying to portray herself as a moderate, but she has been throwing bones to the maga crowd. She was one of the handful of republicans in the Virginia Senate to vote for an election audit. Can you talk about feeding moderates and maga . What about people like alyssa frock and what about people like these . Thats a pretty tough fight to win. As we have said over the course of the conversation, in the house, candidate quality, issues matters less than otherwise. Theyve been in the middle. That is the democrat d1 district. Shes got a challenge and if democrats are having a bad night i would look at whether the race gets more competitive. The thing about these wave years, i dont think this is going to be a tsunami by any stretch, they go bigger than what you expect. , john and matt remember in 1994 it was pretty dubious that republicans would get to 40, certainly not 52 what they did. Republicans getting 63 seats in 2010. These things tend to get bigger not smaller. That was before we had some of the polling concerns about whether polls are not capturing certain kinds of voters that are not predisposed to go towards democrats. Can ask another question . Charlie, if on Election Night and 9 15, lets say she has won by three points. Would you reassess completely this . I would not reassess completely based on one single race. What would it tell you . You do a shopping basket, 10, 12 races two or three in new york state, at least one in new jersey may be all three in virginia. You put together a basket of them. In deal individual races can be idiosyncratic. You put 10 races and you can sort of see a pattern. I would not pick one. I simply will not do it. I guess, would that be encouraging for democrats . Sure. If you knew she was going to win by two or three points that would be encouraging. What i would want to look at at least 10 others before i johnny conclusions. Before i draw any conclusions. If we were to see that to win that race, we would see the democrats are in position to hold the house and it would make me feel that there is confidence of that. In 201890 was gonna hit my 40 seat forecast off of virginia. One of them was five and that was the spanberger district. That one, was a clear sign we would end up with 40 seats, even though the vote count took a couple of weeks. You have one more . I think you answered it with the last one about what the range might be. Does anyone have anything matthew or any of you even john, if you think this is going to be a trickle wave . I am just going to say, i normally have a pretty good idea of what will happen in a pretty good sense of it. I have no idea. If we woke up two days after election day in the democrats kept the senate and the house was basically dead even i would not be surprised at all. In this case. I know we are in a moment, the data is not clear one way or another like it was in 2018, like it was in 2010, 94. The date is not clear. I will not be surprised with whatever results happen and get prepared for three or four races that everyone is like i did not see that coming. Charlie can i just a followup on this point. You have said that you would not be surprised if tim ryan wins the race in ohio. If he does win the race. Does that tell you something about the election or would you see that as an idiosyncratic result reflecting his quality as a candidate . I just dont believe and looking at any one race i dont think that is good policy i would not do that. It would make me feel better about democrats than if you lost by five but no, i think you look at a basket. I personally think its going to be north of 20 but probably not north of 40. And probably one or two for republicans in the senate. There is a lot of uncertainty. My fear based on what is happened in the last four elections is that it would be more dangerous to understand war republicans are coming from than understating it. I think theyre in a position where we dont know what is going to happen as was pointed out we dont have a clear signal and we did had clear signals and those other cycles including 2020 which told us unequivocally that democrats were going to do well in the house and possibly expand the majority. They have lost 14 seats. We suspect that was because they unilaterally disarmed during the pandemic and did know in person fieldwork because they were denying the reality of the virus. We think that we have uncovered a pretty significant evidence of a fieldeffect but we have no idea of what caused that. We know that there is nothing in the data no forecast noah not a crystal ball anywhere that that republicans would gain 14 house seats. Farm Holding Onto Something other than the if im Holding Onto Something for this election cycle im holding onto that that this is uncharted territory and we did not see the house result coming at all last cycle. I want to thank our panelists for a smart and spirited discussion, apologize to the audience for the fact that im sitting in a room with a lot of windows and the sun is going down. I apologize for my background music. Thank you so much. Everyone stayed with us, thank you all for joining us and for your questions. That was excellent. Thank you so much. Thank you. It was spirited. I want to let everyone know the common good index, our first index survey has weve got our numbers and they are alarming. We gain divisions across a number of indices and looks at the causes of divisions. Party politics are a big part of the problem and we also look at possible solutions. Join us on november for a celebration of the american spirit award the Capitol Hill Police officers, liz cheney pbs documentary filmmaker and a number of other really extraordinary people. Weve got a wonderful lineup for the rest of the season. Hope to see you again. Thank you charlie i appreciate it so much. 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