Pretty simple directions. Does the right, this question goes to the left. I have an excuse. Are you all enjoying cpac so far . [applause] is anybody a wee bit tired . No . This is good. Thats right. We all have our liquid courage. I am glad to have this panel today. Everyone here is someone i had a special relationship with. Married to someone we call the affectionate general] she is the Vice President of the foundation. I always get titles wrong. She is like the righthand person to william lapierre. Toph, it is a real honor have you. Suzy paige and i grew up together in the same town. She went to one high school and i went to the other. Fromth traveled to wichita time to time and i want you do know, susan, i do not know if they are her but my family loves you and are happy that you are here. Lets clap for her. Come on, come on. [applause] and rick is more left wing than i am but he knows the plight will be the audience will be polite and respectful. This will help liven up the conversation because i kind of want to know what the heck the democrats will do. Byron, you are someone i have talked to several times. Come on, come on. [applause] have a very i special relationship because we go to the same stylist. He has beautiful hair and i want mine to be like that, too. Be withally cool to mike pence. I am injuring not. Withring the question realignment. There is a lot of realignment going on right now. If you like politics, 2016 would have been the year you chose to cover politics because there is so much change on the right and the left. I want to start with ralph who has been covering politics for a long time. Have you ever seen a year like in 2016 . I have never seen a year like this. I dont think i ever predicted the outcome of president ial elections. This one was unbelievable. I thought he was a joke, he couldnt be serious. When he started to run i didnt think he could win anything. I realized everything i had learned over 50 years in journalism out the window, i didnt understand what was going on but it was fun. Yet, it was fun. Trump made it fun. And, trump said a lot of the things that many of us thought consciously or thought unconsciously. In so some of us, some of us found ourselves cheering. He said the most absurd things. Why he won. Ably ok. That is why i am cheering so much. Susan, there is a lot of realignment. I think there is a lot of realignment going on with both parties. Do you agree with that . I do. I think this is an election we will be seen with the benefit of more perspective as they are realigning the election. With the president s speech, describing a Republican Party in different terms than we had heard described before, as the party of the working man. You know, the party of the rest belt. Including three states for nearly a quarter century had been part of the blue wall. Michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin. Unexpectedly went for President Trump in november. [applause] i think there is some buddy here from michigan. You also see some of the repercussions. Theyre trying to figure where the Democratic Party fits in a world where they were going to be more coastal and have more trouble in the midwest. And obviously, the south is been pretty republican for some time. What is going on with the election for the dnc chair and generally and the democratic already. I mean, i am kind of injuring it. It is a popcorn moment for me. You talk about the election. All of the conversation was about the dysfunction that is going to exist in the Republican Party. Every now and then i would pop up and say we are not talking about it. But let me tell you what is happening in the Democratic Party. It is worse. It is worse. It did not really come to light until the republicans won the election. The factionalism and is stunning. The voting has begun for who will be the next chairman. Are there superdelegates . [applause] [laughter] ] ross talking hold on a second. Of course it is rigged. Dont anybody quotes that. We dont know what is going to happen. Keith will probably be the chairman. They like that. It is not a good sign. You can have strange things happening. Byron well, you know, trump won the republican nomination by challenging or blowing up some republican orthodoxy in key areas, trade being one of them, entitlements being another. I went to a bunch of rallies where they said we are not going to touch your social security. Foreign entanglements, his criticism of george w. Bush was brutal. It was brutal. Byron he also exploded a republican divisions that exist on immigration. Doing all that he won. So it told you that a lot of people who vote republican are not as orthodox as perhaps some people in washington insist. Susan mentioned the blue wall. I mean i was a big believer in , the blue wall. It was the idea that if you look at the states that had voted for president , democrat in the last six elections, that was 242 electoral votes. We all thought the democrats started out with 242 electoral votes. So we all thought that it democrats started out with 200 42 electoral votes, the atlanta get 28 and they would win. Nd trump blew it up michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania. He just punched through that blue wall. Antidestroyed this democratic idea. And they believed with the Obama Coalition that democrats are going to be elected from now on. Forever never because of demography. That idea is gone now. I kind of like it. There you go. I was out taken the train from washington to new york to be there on election day. We were filled with campaign operatives. Clinton campaign operatives. You dont know what is going to happen. You never know what is going to happen on election day. All the chatter and everything, not good from my perspective. I felt good the day before and started getting a pit in my stomach. In the like, i just did not know. Let me ask each of you. You guys are such experts. Im not setting you up. I am not going to ask you what your predictions were going into election day, but at what point in this process did you realize it was going to be President Trump . Was it early that morning or the next morning or somewhat worked earlier . Ralph, what about you . Ralph i dont want to go any further than this room. This is really inside the information. I had written to prepare to run on page one and analysis of the election. And the lead was why donald trump lost. Thats how good i am at this. That does not mean i was not for him. But i agreed with everyone else. There is that blue block that you cant make a significant dent in, certainly if your name is trump. I like these absurd things. You say some of the absurd things. Its not going further than this room. Right . Actually i think ralph was channeling and helping trump. Before trump decided to do this. You can see some of these things. There was a realignment. That is my next question. I was going to get them through answering this question. The realignment is the Republican Party is no longer the party of adam smith and free markets. Once there was a religious tenant that conservatives meant free markets unimpeded. Thank you. Ralph so, i just, and then and tries to change it. He talks about fair trade, free trade, and gets nowhere. Then somebody else comes and talks about America First and does not get anywhere. Into then donald trump somehow manages to win an election running on things that republicans historically opposed. And a Republican Congress theingly is not beating him in whichf every member of that congress has run. There is a lot of time on the clock. How about you leading up to the election . Susan Election Nights are humbling things for people who cover politics. It doesnt matter what the polls show you, it shows what the polls actually do. I have covered several Election Nights where i think it is a surprise. I think this last Election Night was a surprise. I did the analysis for a series. The first deadline was 6 30 or so. That one did not predict who was going to win. That was one for the ages. Susan believe me. It is one. Polls, theyt the tell us what people are thinking. The analysis became friendlier to the prospects that donald trump is going to be the next president. By the last deadline we had donald trump being elected president. They are actually going to do this thing that we said he could not do. Rick . Rick i was covering the election and young son, ohio. Youngstown is my hometown. That to me is the center. The belt buckle. Rick. Rick so i am doing a Radio Program so i am watching the returns. Sitting with the mayor of young some. Sid the number came up for Mahoning County and donald trump was at. And the maronite, who both grew up there and know that Mahoning County is never gone republican that any of us could remember, we just looked at each other with our mouse open and that is when i realized that donald trump was going to be the next president. Onso, i was in new york Election Night and heading toward the trump event which was at the hilton on 6th avenue. Wellconnectedry republican. Into they were depressed about the exit polls, because the exit polls from florida did not look good. If you dont win florida, you dont win. It is a very early night and the idea even when trump seemed to be a little but of head was there was going to be this big group of voters in broward who would come through for Hillary Clinton. Said there had been this kind of debate before election day be among some republicans that they wanted trump to do better than make romney. I mean, rodney had gotten 212 electoral votes and somebody nevertrump republicans were going to say trump was going to lead the party to a devastating catastrophic historic defeat so if he could do better than romney they could say well he did better than your boy. So i get to the trump event. It is early in the evening and i run into Jeff Sessions and sessions is very circumspect. He is cautious and doesnt seem optimistic. He says, the and good thing is trump showed the appeal of this message. Even if he doesnt win it will have done a lot. The New York Times had this meter. Of trump chances. And it started at a 2 chance. Yes. So, later in the evening things are better. I ran into Jeff Sessions again and he said, somebody said trump has a 59 chance. I said it is bigger than that. It goes to 89. In session goes, sessions is looking at it. 89 . The lord is in the saying. The mood shift was unbelievable. Mercy who is a big news junkie, she is checking twitter and everything else. She was following the New York Times, but they are not going to get it right. She said though you dont get it, if the New York Times says it is there that means it is really good. We were in trump tower hanging out with these folks. We were going to the trump celebration. For some reason there was construction going on. And a guy goes hes going to do it, and he did it without the party and he is going to do it. My invitation was apparently lost. I was not invited. I dont know what happened. Matt schlapp i dont know, we can work. We go to the celebration, and i somehow get stuck in with the donors, which is fine with me, but i am up with the donors at the trump celebration. And i will be honest with you, i have been working republican policy for 20 years. Oftentimes i know a lot of the donors. You know what . I knew one donor. A very brave guy, because a lot of the institutional donors did not jump on board. These were donors who i had never met before. And i started to talk to them as the evening went on. It was awesome. To punctuate the whole evening, when the network news finally said he was over the top, a woman, who was not caucasian, came running out of the kitchen with her kitchen outfit on, and she said, in her thick accent, he did it, he did it, he did it. [applause] matt schlapp so that was beautiful, because i am married to somebody obviously whose parents came to this country, it was such a beautiful thing. It doesnt always get covered, which was a lot of regular joes and janes, they looked at this election and felt like their voice was heard. This goes back to you, ralph, of realignment. Is this a permanent change in what makes us the coalition of voters who can elect republicans to the white house, or is this a temporary trump phenomenon driven by a rather unique and spectacular individual and really doesnt have Lasting Impact on this coalition . Ralph hallow there is no way to answer that question, matt, with precision at this point with the first 100 days. The next, the midterm elections next year, there are 33 senate seats up, 23 are democrat. Traditionally the party that owns the white house loses at least four seats. I suspect that if things go the way they are going, that wont happen, and the republicans will hold what they have or maybe add to it. But it all depends on what trump is able to do. So far what the president has been able to do hasnt required much from congress. In fact, almost nothing. He is added by fiat. Matt schlapp it is the easy part. I am not saying it is not significant, but it is not the hardest, heaviest lifting, so we dont know what will happen. What we do know is the following. This party, no longer, at least for the next few months, maybe four years, is no longer committed to the religious belief in the adam smith trade, and this is truly important, because it means that the party, the Republican Party, has a real chance to appeal to working men and women in a way that never happened before, including with reagan. Because working men and women got left out when free trade, or you can used to say, full or pat buchanan used to say, full baloney, prevailed. It helped Lower Consumer prices, but it hurt a lot of americans. And it made america no longer a nation of manufacturing. And so, this has already changed. How long it lasts will determine matt schlapp jump in here, panel. I mean, is this permanent realignment . Susan page there is not a permanent alignment in american politics. American politics are constantly shifting. I know that people in this audience are very enthusiastic about the fact that these three blue wall states went for donald trump, but they went for donald trump with a combined total of 107,000 votes. That said, i do think we are seeing the two parties realign in new ways. If the Democrat Party is a party of the kochs, millennials, racial diversity, a lot of women, a high proportion of collegeeducated voters, that is not what the Democratic Party was, you know, the past decades ago. And the Republican Party is increasingly a party of rural and suburban areas, white, more male than female. I mean, we are seeing, and it has got real strength in some of these industrial midwestern states that historically were democratic. Different definitions of these two parties. Matt schlapp let me just jump on to this for one anecdote that i got. I want you and byron to talk about this as well. I was shocked in these green rooms before you go on tv, you learn so much interesting stuff. Because most of us are not like donald trump. We say the most interesting stuff before the camera goes on. He does the opposite. In the agreement it is just and then the camera goes on, he says very interesting things. One of the things i heard from a democrat which was so blatant, which is they said, why are you guys, why are you supporting the iran deal, doing so much to introduce real panic with your jewish supporters . They are like, they are not part of our coalition anymore. We dont worry about them. If you change even what we assume is the blocks of these coalitions rick i have seen this movie before. We will move to the left, we will lose a lot of elections, then we will come back to the senate. I have seen this movie in my lifetime. What is happening with Republican Party is fascinating to me. I listened to steve bannon. On your panel. When he said economic nationalism, i just went, wow, and i will post it as a question. I will post it as a question. While you may agree with that approach, i appreciate that, are you still the party of reagan if you are going in that direction . I am not answering it, but it is an interesting and intriguing question to think about, because i dont see that as ronald reagan. Well, there was a movement called the reformacons whose basic premise was if reagan was president long ago, trying to update his core values, the things that were so important to people, to fit our current conditions. Trumps success or failure is going to have a huge determination on how much the Republican Party changes, but the fact that he won doing it was already changed. There was this debate and conversation among many republicans, never in public, about after trump loses, what is the posttrump sentiment going to be . There would be some republicans if trump has sort of seized as their nomination, he goes on to lose it in a landslide, and will go, that was close. We can go back to being just what we were before. Then there were other republicans he said, look what happened in the primaries. Can i ask you a question . Ranks yes. Would any of the other 15 have one . You mean the presidency . I personally do not believe that. I mean, Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate. Was the onlytrump one that could of one . Yes. Applause] we have one who wouldve won, joe biden. You think joe biden wouldve one . Say that joe biden shouldve won, i say if you add up the numbers he could have one. I exnfler the candidates around, you know, i remember spending a couple days watching ted cruz. To mason city. This was in ted cruzs face and which he was, nobody would have bible then ted cruz. He was going to carry a huge bible around. He would quote scripture. And it was just and i saw the ballroom,t the trumps group. And he got an even bigger group of the then ted cruz did by carrying a big bible around. You dont have to be evangelical to get the support of evangelicals. Obviously, they had elected Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee and the last two caucuses. But what they were telling me was that they felt they were under attack in the larger cakebaking,its, all of this. They felt donald trump could support them and protect them and their efforts. Let me ask you a question. The of us believe that democratic process was not as open as it should be. Do you think the democrats actually harmed themselves by whatever they did, donald trump rigging it, would Bernie Sanders had been a better candidate . Democratic nominee . Susan page i think all of the democrats not aligned with Hillary Clinton should agree that the system should have been more open. There were younger upcoming democrats who say, i should have run, maybe somebody other than Martin Omalley could have done a better job in challenging people there. I think it is hard, hard to rerun an election, but with everything we know now, if you knew trump was going to be the republican nominee, i think Bernie Sanders is a better counterpart. Because he they have some overlap appeal. I cant tell you how many people i talk to in iowa and New Hampshire who were trying to decide between Bernie Sanders and donald trump. It is true. Susan page i guess i think if you are going to nominate, republicans are going to nominate donald trump, Bernie Sanders is a greater match against him. Joe biden, he mightve lost, but it would have been a different kind of race. I think joe biden wouldve been a formidable candidate against trump in places like youngstown. Matt schlapp when we would go to these debates, you guys remember all the republican debates all over the country, and i would always be in an uber car and asking the uber driver who they supported. And it was interesting how many times, susan, they said, i cant decide between Bernie Sanders or trump. And for the first couple of times, i was just like, what, what are you talking about . And then i realized this was a real theme that gets back to the forgotten man and woman. I asked if they would vote, and they said, sir, i cant vote. I am going to be driving my uber car. This also tells a lot of the sanderstrump people actually dont get, you dont get the full amplification in the primaries. Susan page you know, the first time i was at a rally and someone told me i am trying to decide between Bernie Sanders and donald trump, i thought it was extraordinary. I wrote a tweet saying this. I am at this rally and and then by the 16th time i decided it was no longer remarkable. Tweetable. Matt it wasnt news. Rick what would have happened to Bernie Sanders was twofold. He would hillary did not pull enough voters from certain democratic constituencies, Bernie Sanders really would have had that problem. The other problem, we are being honest with each other, Bernie Sanders program didnt work. There were nice ideas, but if you actually put [applause] matt i think ungar is just playing up to the crowd. Rick perhaps the biggest reason that Hillary Clinton lost was that she did not recreate the Obama Coalition, black and other minority voters did not turn out in the numbers they had for president obama twice. And actually, i remember going to a Bernie Sanders rally at the fox theater in atlanta. And he was in a southern swing trying to appeal to black voters. Well, the crowd was overwhelmingly white, but he really packed the place. When he walked out, they stood up, and they remain standing for one hour and 14 minutes that he spoke. They stood the whole time. There werent that many black voters, and i felt i could speak to every single one of them there, which i did. They were all young, and they all told me, they kept trying to convince their parents to vote for bernie. Matt schlapp wow. Rick ungar and they said, i just cant do it. They are with clinton. They wont leave clinton, and is because of bill. They dont like her that much, it is because of bill, and they wont change. I think Bernie Sanders would have had a very hard time getting those voters and might have done worse with the constituencies which are absolutely vital to the democratic victory. Susan a totally different dynamic. I mean, and elections do not follow the path we think they are going to follow as evidenced of last year. That would have been a fun election to cover. Matt schlapp ralph, so we had this trump victory, the first 30 days. You offered what i have said about it. I cant imagine a president who knows that you, all of you are important to him succeeding, doing a better job of letting him know how much he respects you. It has been a great 30 days, he is filling his promises, but it is 30 days. Ralph, what is the one or two things that he just must turn around in the economy and society in order to be able to go to the american people, you know, three years from now and say, look, i have done what i said i would do, and we are on the right path . What is that we are talking about a lot of issues, but what is that one thing . Ralph i dont know the one thing. He has a lot on the table. He has got to show that there is something being done with the wall. There is a huge difference he there is a huge constituency out there were the wall. It is a huge symbolism. It is really important. [applause] ralph he has also got to show, and i think he is doing this, that he is serious about it. As you put it, brian, protecting evangelical rights. His wife gave a, some public speech last week, opened it with the lords prayer. Matt schlapp in melbourne. Ralph hallow it is really the trump shows family, the president , his wife, actually believes that religion does belong in the public square. Hugely important. Remember he talks [applause] ralph this man actually won a Record Number of evangelicals on november 8, Record Number, outdoing george w. Bush, who then held the record and who was a true evangelical. Trump never claimed he is an evangelical. They think he is an evangelical, but they do believe him, and they believe he has the power to carry out what he promised. I cant think of almost everything that he put in the top of his must do list is going to happen. Once people begin to think that trump isnt magical, he doesnt have all the power they think he has, then problems will begin to arise, i think. Matt rick, your last statement was fascinating. Because i agree with that, and the one thing trump isnt doing is sending legislation to congress. And it is because, at that moment in time, people figure out, he doesnt have all the power. Rick important point, i dont know if that is the case, but well find out shortly. It may simply be he doesnt have the wherewithal how do i put this . He doesnt have assembled the people matt schlapp he had the transition team, and every president , go back as far as you want in the first 30 days of their administration, yes, there were executive orders, but there was legislation. He has been in the executive action phase of his presidency, and i think it is ok with republicans, because a lot of them are angry at obama for using it so much, and they want to see their guy using it. Did obama remember there was a congress . You get that obamacare thing [applause] [laughter] he not only said more legislation, he had things passed. Good 30 days. It is amazing what you can do with that in the house. Matt what is one thing he has got to get . Susan i respectfully disagree. I think he has to do [laughter] matt i can respect you. Thank you, susan. Susan page i dont think you he needs to check off a lot of boxes. He needs to make people like the economy is working better for them. Matt schlapp yeah. Susan page i think that is the definition of the forgotten man and woman, that is why he won pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin. When i talk to voters in rallies, they said he is a businessman, he can help the economy in a way the politicians cant. I think that is the fundamental test for President Trump. Matt schlapp awesome. What a great panel. [applause] matt lets thank ralph, susan, and rick and byron for being here with us today. Thank you all very much. [applause] [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2016] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. 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