Captioning sponsored by Comedy Central jon welcome to the daily show. My name is jon stewart. Man nwe have a good show for you tonight. Last night eye dont know if you knew this we had an election and tonight on this program, the winner of that election, the president of the u. S. A. , the United States of arithmetic, nate silver will be joining us cheers and applause it was a big night last night. The big news, of course, president barack obama not just reelected but seemingly given fresh batteries. We remain more than a collection of red states and blue states. Ry are and forever will be the United States of america. And together, with your help, and gods grace, we will continue our journey forward. laughter . Jon so thats all it took for to you get back in the groove was the fact that you never have to run for president again . laughter thats all it took . cheers and applause of course, on the other side, governor mitt romney broke the bad news to his supporters before reluctantly being asked to pose for his familys yearly christmas card. laughter . That is a goodlooking bunch. Its like they the people that came in the frames. Across the nation, the people spoke, legalizing gay marriage in maine and maryland. Legalizing marijuana in washington state, and colorado cheers and applause gay marriage. Nothing. laughter . Marijuana. Bat bleep crazy. They also legal ides dancing in that town in footloose. I probably should have looked that up. Wisconsin elected Tammy Baldwin the first openly lesbian senator. Sorry, Lindsay Graham. Yeah. You missed the Lindsay Graham joke. It was a pretty good one. laughter . Perhaps the best news was in florida. After months of republican governor rick scott attempting to suppress democratic voter turnout, and attempting to decrease voter discomfort and my favorite introducing a 10page novelette state ballot to people who couldnt handle a bleep onepage ballot. Florida remains too close to call. What is the good news, you say . The election was decide without them. applause cheers for once, floridas cluster bleep is irrelevant. Its like hearing good news, america. The tumor on your dong is benign. laughter . Its a joke about. Come on. Were tired for the most part, the news naeks acquitted themselves nicely with little of the early called controversy and malfunctions of years past, except b. M. N. , bull bleep mountain news, who were caught flat foot bide a historic storm did spite all the evidence just days before, they never saw coming. I think mitt romney is going to win the election. It just is a momentum. I think that mitt romney will win. Were going to win by a landslide. Theyre sciewd. You can go through all the scientific gobbledegook you like. I dont believe them. Jon this was the historic election between scientific gobbledegook, or as we call it, arithmetic. laughter and belief, belief wawns going down out a fight which led to what im about to show you. Now, laughter my friend, eventually some day i will die, as will you, and everyone you know and love. But this segment from fox news election coverage taken at the precise moment their internal Research Squad announced ohio and the presidency would be awarded to president obama, i believe this foot annual, uplike us, will live forever. Do you believe ohio has been settled . No, i dont and look if if we are calling this on the basis of 47 of the vote being in and when 77 is in secretary of state said the i got the director of the Ohio Campaign for romney on the other end of the line refreshing the page every few seconds. Jon go on. Its going to be a republican victory. This is a historic republican county. Ther target is 64. Theyre at 59 with basically, the early vote counted. Its going to continue to edge up. Big swatches of butler county, delaware county, and warren county, all of which are republican counties which have big chunks of the vote out. Is this just math you do as a republican to make yourself feel better or is this real . Jon did you catch that did did you catch that right . There . That the the moment. Did you record it and tivo it. You can play it back wards and forward all day. I just want to get it straight, karl, very quickly are you lying to yourself or to the millions of viewers cause youre liein by the way, mact you do as a republican to make yourself feel better is a much better slogan for fox than the one they have now. cheers and applause but you know delicious. Like when Truman Burbank first suspected the world hed been living in was not what it seemed, discovery would take a voyage. Karl rove said that we should figure out what the deal is with this decision desk. The decision desk is in a different place. Megyn, i will escort you down the steps here. Megyn is going to go to the decision desk and interview them about the decision on ohio. Jon this was 10 tha that then that megyn kelly, in pursuit of something called facts, left the holodeck and entered the world of dunder mifflin. What were saying is the amount of raw vote thats in these counties thats out there still waiting to come in is so large, no matter what the hand full of republican precincts that are still out there, its just not going to make it. 100 certainty. 99. 95 . Jon so youre saying theres a chance. laughter applause last night, tragically, there was an avalanche on bull bleep mountain, ladies and gentlemen, with the blame for it if to their own willful blindness . Their a supper of misinformation gruel they themselves cooked up and had to at some deep level of cognition know contained far more than of the f. D. A. Allowance of bull bleep . The white establishment is now the minority. I just cannot believe, though, that the majority of americans would believe that incurring more debt is good for our economy, for our childrens future, for job creators. Its not a traditional america anymore, and there are 50 of the voting public who want stuff. I cannot believe that the majority of americans would believe that its okay not to follow the constitution and not have a budget. Who is going to give them things . President obama. People feel that they are entitled to things. laughter . booing . Jon holy bleep balls. What an incredible story to tell yourselves. We would have won if it werent for the moral failings of the the none real america. Its white people judo. Fox lost because last night minorities who feel entitled to things, came and took the country away from the selfsufficiency, white medicare retirees and upper class taxavoidance experts, or as theyre also known your audience. Well be right back. cheers and applause b ,x jon welcome back. Last night brought a big storm to bleep mountain of which the citizens were unrepaired having relied on their internal forecast. Theyre professionals and after the initial panic over the number decide the party of person responsibility did what is itt does best figure out why it wasnt their fault. Subject number one, the media. The Mainstream Media favors obama. The numbers from the exit polling seemed to mirror or parrot the liberal media. When you have the National Media working compulse eiffel your behalf it is very difficult to break thiew the noise to the reality. Jon sure, and even though the Pew Research Center found the media was being about equally negative tow beating candidates in the runup to election day, that story itself was reported in. The media. laughter and dont think god is getting off the hook in this election. I do think that the storm threw a Monkey Wrench in mitt romneys momentum because it disrupted the story line. One photo op walking over a 2 xes about 4 and all of a sudden hes handle a storm. Jon if only president bush could have been so luck tow have a massive hurricane on his watch hes oh, right. Still the question remains how could a network as in touch with the common man fail to see what was coming . Dick, what happened . What changed . What. Your model compared to the reality . Well, im burr ed in a mudslide. Jon hey, i got news for you, buddy. That aint mud. laughter applause but dont blame dick. Blame the demographics. This is the new america. This isnt your fathers america. We are now in a turnout mod theyll is totally different than weve ever had. Blacks are now 13 of the vote, not 11. Latinos are 10, not 8. The previous numbers were the 04 model and i thought things would return to that. They didnt. Jon i thought the minorities who vote nod 2008 would have disappeared by now laughter i thought maybe they would return to their home planets or reach their expiration date, and dissolve into whatever minorities are made of. Something. But turns out they still exist in human form. laughter . But the real problem here wasnt the voters inexplicable decision to be less white. It was the ruthless obama smear machine. The Obama Campaign running a very aggressive early effort to characterize mitt romney as a corporate raider and his time at bain capital. That he was a vulture, vampire, vulture capitalist. Jon it was so unfair i mean, where did that stuff come from anyway . Theres a real difference between venture capitalism and vulture capitalism. Pretty hard to justify rich people figuring out clever legal ways to loot a company. Do you really believe this Company Wants to elect a wall street financier. There was a steel mill that bain swept in, took that company over. Bain sometimes behaved in behavior where they looted a couple and left behind 1700 unemployed people. Jon damn you, obama thats coming frommed in your own house. And even the rights beloved super pac designed to do to obama what obama did to romney backfired. Remember aidle son, las vegas billionaire . Said hes give up to 100 million to help romney defeat the socialist obama . Why did he have to give so much money . Because he gave so much to gingrich in the primaries to defeat vulture capitalist romney, the halfhour bain attack ad was produced and distributed by romney sugar daddy sheldon aidle son. It wasnt murder. It was auto erotica asphyxiation. The highlight of foxs total melted down for me and there were a lot of highlights. Im a bit of a connoisseur was to see where they ultimately landed. The place they could go to in their own minds to rationalize the utter destruction of bull bleep mountain. It was almost four years of division and class warfare. We need to hope and pray that the president understands now that, that policy is divisive, and that policy is destructive to the future of the United States. Lets hope a lesson has been learned, and he surprises with us some moderation. Hope is important. Jon yes, let this are sounding victory we barack obama be a lesson to the president if you dont moderate your positions, you may not win jon my guest tonight is the founder the New York Times political blog, please welcome back to the program, mr. Nate silver. cheers and applause nice to see you again. Thank you, jon. Jon so, obviously, i think with the Election Results last night, do you want to offer an apology . laughter we missed the north Dakota Senate race. Jon yes, you did laughter you said that republican rick burt would win. He lost. He lost. Jon you better get out of the bbuddy. Last night, here is honestly how i felt i didnt know obama would win, romney would win, the country would survive either. What i was really concerned about last night was that if your prediction model had been wrong, that it would have been a defeat for arithmetic laughter and that they would have seized upon that to, like, i think then gravity would be up for grabs. Sure. Jon is that how you viewed it, to some extent, dispassionately for math . It would have been bad, i think, because for some reason, 538 that came invested with this symbolic power and symbolic power isnt particularly rational, but it became a symbol for people who wh who were believing, lets look at the polls and do impeerical research. Jon you were the chickfilla when i went to the Democratic Convention in charlotte. There was a chickfilla stephen its so good. Its pretty good. I think you can sample in the other side of stuff, right, and try and come away more informed from it. But what was surprising to me is that before the election you had people who were not just predicting romney will eke it out in ohio. Its republican leaning, et cetera. They were saying wed have a romney landslide in the swings states. And to come to that conclusion means i think youre a little bit out of touch with reality. And you better be right. We get a test. We get a test and its the good thing about making a prediction or forecast youre called on your can i say bleep on tv . Jon not on this show you cant. On this program i believe you can only say bleep . laughter . I believe. If im correct. But that is what so struck me is i am not particularly versed in statistics, but as i read your blog, it was being used as a totem for the left because it was so positive for obama but the underpinnings of it were these polls statistically would not all have the same margin of error in the same distribution. Right. Jon if it were not statistically provable it was moving in that protection. Yeah, unless there were some bias in the polls. If anything the polls were a little low on some states for obama. And that some of the them underestimated the number of minorities that might turn out, for example, as well. But the polls are a pretty good track record. Like in north dakota, theyre not perfect, necessarily. But thats stephen i dont know how you go outside after that north dakota thing. laughter . Do you think let me ask you this about the Electoral College. Is there any way to determine how elections would be changed by a switch from the Electoral College to the popular vote . I know strategically things would change a little bit, but do you think outcomes would be demonstrably different . I think a little bit, maybe. Ironically it almost plays to democrats benefit where you build a constituent and cobble together the 51 majority instead of having one big group where you have a lot of depth. Romney will win south dakota and tennessee and alabama and state like that, by 20 or 25 points. Whereas there are all these states where democrats won by one or two or three or four our five points and it looks like they may have a bit of an advantage right now. If i were a g. O. P. Strategist, i would be terrified by florida, even though its not officially called yet. The fact that the noncubanhispanic population is growing so much there and votes democratic like other states. That would horrify me that florida might be a true purple state going forward. Jon what i have seen from that side is a justification that this was nothing of their own doing. This was a moral failing of their opponents, that there are now more people in this country who are morally weak and lazy, and thats why they lost, having nothing to do with them. You laugh, but im tell you, all day long on b. M. M. , it is a constant refrain of, well, now weve learned. Most of this country doesnt want to work for anything. Its nothat complicated. They did win 48 the vote. And may be you moderate a little bit on immigration and gay marriage and the fiscal conservative stuff will always sell to a certain odd yins. Its hard for democrats to win three terms in a row. They should be able to get their act together. Well see. Four years is a long time. Weve had, obviously, shifts back and forth, in the prior four years. I do think if you look at how Jeb Bush Stephen are you so reasonable. Dont you want to stand up and go, i am nate silver bow down to me cheers and applause i am nate silver lord and god of the allegorrism cheers and applause i want you to come back in six months and lets just talk baseball. Absolutely. Jon that would be awesome. Thank you, jon. Jon nate silver
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