Transcripts For CNNW The Lead With Jake Tapper 20161107

A true outsider. Donald trump unveiling his closing ad over the weekend. Hillary clinton releasing hers just hours ago asking what kind of america do voters want . Is america dark and divisive or hopeful and inclusive . Our core values are being tested in this election, but everywhere i go, people are refusing to be defined by fear and division. There are almost too many events on the campaign trail to keep track of today. Trump bouncing among five states, florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, pennsylvania, and michigan for five separate events. The last one a late night rally this evening in grand rapids. Clinton is devoting three of her final four Campaign Stops to shoring up her blue wall in michigan and in pennsylvania. President obama, first lady obama, former president clinton behind her on one philadelphia stage this evening. Does her schedule indicate her campaign is worried they could cede the keystone state . Cnn will be on the trail for every single second of the final, final sprintlet. Lets go to david chalian. Trump reviewed his path to 270 electoral votes. Here is how he views the race. Were going to win michigan. You know what were going to win . Were going to win minnesota. Were going to win minnesota. Were leading big in ohio. Were leading in iowa. Were leading in New Hampshire where im going in a little while. Were leading in North Carolina. New polls seem to be coming out every hour. David, give us a little reality check. Trump mentioned michigan, minnesota, iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina. First off, all those states would not be enough. He would still need to win florida, but put that aside, where does he stand in those six states. Lets first remind you where our National Poll of polls is right now, jake. 46 to 42 , a fourpoint edge for Hillary Clinton averaging all those National Polls that came out today. But youre right, lets look at some of the states he mentioned. Michigan, just to show you the latest polling out of michigan, a fourpoint lead for Hillary Clinton. 42 to 38 . He also mentioned New Hampshire. Lets take a look at the latest poll in New Hampshire. In fact, we have a poll of polls because a lot of New Hampshire polls came out. Jake, look at this. 44 for clinton. 41 for trump. A threepoint edge for Hillary Clinton in our poll of polls. Lets get that out of there. Lets take a look in North Carolina. Hed also mentioned North Carolina. Lets look at our poll of polls here. 45 to 43 . A slight clinton edge. Now, he could be cherry picking his polls as to which ones he says that he is taking a look at, but hes not leading in all of these states as he says, jake. Interesting. Now, clintons last stops are in North Carolina, michigan, and pennsylvania. Does she need to win all of those states . She doesnt, jake, but lets look at the path to 270 for Hillary Clinton because as you noted, is she so concerned about those cracks in the blue wall . Look what happens if, indeed, her blue wall crumbles. Lets say Hillary Clinton does, indeed, lose michigan and lose pennsylvania for a moment. This is our battleground map. Theyre feeling pretty good about nevada, so im going to give Hillary Clinton nevada for the purpose of this exercise. And lets say that she even loses North Carolina. Im going to give that to donald trump. If Hillary Clinton wins florida and wins New Hampshire, shes at 271 electoral votes and is president of the United States. So this wall can crack for her. Pennsylvania, michigan to trump. If that happened, two of the states that theyre both in today, she just needs to make sure that florida and nevada and New Hampshire come her way. She can even afford to lose North Carolina in this scenario. Interesting. David chalian, thank you so much. Hillary clinton is about to speak at her second stop of the day in michigan as she revisits three states she hopes will form a firewall against the trump train. Cnn senior washington correspondent jeff zeleny is live in the great city of philadelphia where Hillary Clinton will speak this evening. Jeff, what is the Campaign Strategy here . Michigan and pennsylvania were once considered safe for clinton. Reporter they were, indeed, jake, and they have voted d ed democratic for the last six president ial elections but a top aide told me its an insurance policy. Its the best place to block donald trump so that is what is happening in the final 24 hours of this campaign. Theyre simply trying to block donald trump. Now, if you catch them in an honest moment, jake, they also are not quite sure about michigan in particular because it certainly was a state that Bernie Sanders did very well in the primary campaign. It certainly is more of a state where this populist argument is alive and well here. So the idea that the president went to michigan and secretary clinton went to michigan, is in michigan, that is a sign that they are slightly more concerned about that. But added together those are 36 electoral votes. If they win them, its hard for donald trump to get his path to 270. Jeff, in these events that shes holding, how much is she focusing on donald trump versus how much is she talking about herself and what she would want to do for voters . Jake, she is turning the corner certainly more day by day and were definitely hearing it today in pittsburgh and as her speeches come along trying to give a more forwardlooking argument here, not trying to take down and disqualify donald trump as much. Of course, thats thrown in. Theyre still trying to draw this distinction here. You can almost feel a shift in their closing message, certainly in their advertising, but also in what she is saying, jake, trying to close on a slightly more upbeat note in a campaign that has been anything but. Jake . All right. Jeff zeleny, thanks. Cnn senior Political Correspondent Brianna Keilar is live with the Clinton Campaign in allendale where clinton is about to take the stage. Brianna, tell us what youve been noticing as you have been talking to campaign officials. Reporter well, we are now on her second of four events, and i think talking to them, jake, one of the things weve noticed is just how spent they are, one. But, two, that they are quietly optimistic kind of cautiously optimistic about the prospects tomorrow, and its really largely in part because they put in a lot of the ground game, the work, that they now are relying on what has really been a behemoth of a get out the vote operation a finely tuned machine that the Clinton Campaign has put together. But certainly this is something where, you know, as jeff was speaking to, Hillary Clinton has been trying to pivot to a more positive message certainly, and she has a couple positive ads out now here in the close, but its just been such a nasty, Brutal Campaign that its also been difficult to do that, and really one of her lines that has gotten especially we noticed at the last stop in pittsburgh thats gotten so much applause and response is when she talks about donald trump being temperamentally and experientially unfit. Thats something her crowds are certainly eating up and we expect they will hear it in the grand rapids area when she takes the stage. Thank you so much. Joining me is christina shocky, Deputy Communications director for the Clinton Campaign. Thank you for joining us. Great to be here, jake. The last time michigan or pennsylvania went republican in a president ial race was 1988. Why is Hillary Clinton, do you think, having such a hard time seal sealing the deal in those two traditionally blue states . As you said in your reporting, as jeff noted, this was a state she lost in the primary, so shes taking it very, very seriously. We understand the makeup of the state, it might more benefit trump in this election but were not taking it for granted. We built a great ground game in michigan and as you said, weve got president obama there, hillary is there today as is chelsea clinton. Were fighting really hard for every vote and as you know, jake, its a game day state. There isnt as much early voting. It all comes down to tomorrow and were out there working to get every vote we can to bring that state home. But kristina, like three weeks ago your campaign was talking about going into a arizona, going into missouri, going into georgia, and now it seems like youre playing defense in pennsylvania and michigan. You know, it doesnt feel that way to us. You know, the way we worked the schedule for hillary was very strategic. We focused on the early states, places like arizona where people are voting early. Michigan is not that state. People are voting on election day. We really wanted her and our other amazing surrogates to spend the time there closer to election day when it was actually more valuable to have her in the state. So it was really strategic how we spent the time. We feel confident about michigan. We built a great team there, and we really feel like were going to win it, but we also like states like that where we can make trump play defense. At a Campaign Rally in ames, iowa, over the weekend, a student who was introduced Bernie Sanders said that Hillary Clinton is trapped in the world of elite. He said theres no point in voting for the lesser of two evils referring to Hillary Clinton. He had to be taken off stage by a Clinton Campaign official of iowa. Are you worried about millennials who supported sanders and are reluctant to support clinton . They see her as part of the problem. You know, we actually are not worried about that, jake. We are so pleased with the support that senator sanders has given to hillary throughout this campaign. Hes really been one of our champions out there on the trail, and i think one of the interesting stories thats going to come out of tomorrow is the hillary coalition, the broad and Diverse Coalition that came together to elect the first woman president of the United States we hope. Were not taking anything for granted but we hope tomorrow, and we think millennials will be a really important part of that. You know, one of the underreported things about 2008 and 2012 was that president obama actually lost White Millennials. He won millennials overall because its such a diverse generation. We actually think hillary has a real shot at winning White Millennials tomorrow and winning millennials in an overwhelming number thats going to make up her coalition of africanamericans, latinos, suburban moms, College Educated voters and millennials that will put her over the top. Clinton said today she has some work to do to bring the country together if she wins. If she wins, how is she going to reach out to the Trump Supporters . How is she going to reach out to the White Working Class voters who do not support her, some of whom she said were in a basket of deplorables. Whats the plan there . Well, you know, jake, throughout hillarys life shes always made it clear shes willing to work with anybody who wants to make progress for americas families. Thats something shes done as a first lady, as a senator, as secretary of state, and every major accomplishment of her life from getting Childrens Health insurance to getting Health Insurance and coverage for National Guard members to improving our foster care system, shes done it with people across the aisle, people who challenged her and havent always been her biggest fans, she will always reach out and do the work with anybody who wants to make progress, and we would see her do that as president too. All right. Kristina, im going to cut it off there is we can listen in to your candidate in allendale, michigan. Hillary clinton just took the stage. Thanks for joining us. Lets listen in to Hillary Clinton in michigan. It is great to be back in the western michigan. Thank you. [ cheers and applause ] are there any lakers here . Oh, my gosh, i am so thrilled to be here. I want to thank the president of this great university, tom hess, the faculty, the staff, the students. I want to thank brandon dillon, the chair of the Michigan Democratic party, and i especially really want to thank you for sending Debbie Stabenow to the United States senate. Now, i have also the great personal experience and privilege of having worked with debbie, gotten to know her, become a friend of hers, and i am so excited im so excited at the possibility that ill be able to work with her again, but i want you to know this, and i really, really hope youll tell folks because there is no more dedicated, Effective Member of the United States senate than Debbie Stabenow. [ cheers and applause ] she fights for she fights for all of you every day, but she does it with that smile that never leaves her face, and she brings people together who are on opposite sides of issues because she just keeps talking, and dont we need more of that in washington where people actually talk and listen to each other . So its wonderful to be with all of you and to be introduced by debbie. Are you ready to vote tomorrow, michigan . Are you ready to help get your friends to vote tomorrow . Well, that is clearly the right answer because we have a really important election tomorrow. Now, the choice in this election could not be clearer, and i know that for many people youve gone back and forth, youve thought about what to do, and i really respect that, but let me say this, let me say this, this election is basically between division and unity in our country. Its between strong and steady leadership or a loose cannon who could put everything at risk. It is between an economy that works for everyone or one that is even more stacked for those at the top, and i want each and every one of you to be thinking through about all the issues you care about because although my name and my opponents name will be on the ballot, those issues and those values are on the ballot as well, and as you think about what you care about and what you want your future to look like, you have to recognize this is a consequential election. You kn you know, i have been privileged to know a lot of our president s over the past decades and people who ran for president. I was privileged to know as a College Student gerald ford. [ cheers and applause ] in fact, i had an internship with the House Republican Conference Committee which he headed after my junior year in college. So when i say ive gotten to know a lot of our president s and people who have run for president , it goes back a ways, and here is what i want you to understand. I didnt agree with everything they did or said. Even the democrats, we had differences in politics and policies and sometimes on principle, but i never doubted, i never doubted that they were fit to serve as our president and commander in chief. Thats why, thats why this election is so different, and its why so the many republicans have spoken out to endorse me and support me and who have taken very courageous stands against the nominee of their own par party. Because they believe that we must put country ahead of party when it comes to this election. You know, i was at kent state in ohio last week, and i was introduced by a gentleman by the name of bruce blair, and mr. Blair had served in the air force. He was a young officer assigned to be what was called a launch officer. That meant he served his time every day sitting in a bunker where the controls for launching Nuclear Weapons were housed, and his job, imagine the responsibility, a young air force officer in his 20s waiting to hear whether or not an order is given for him to launch Nuclear Weapons. And bruce playblair explained t there is no appeal from a president s order to do that. The joint chiefs of our military forces cant say no, dont do it. Theres no veto from congress or anyone else, and the time between the order being given and the actual launch is four minutes. So after watching this election, mr. Blair began contacting others who had served in this incredibly responsible position to share his concerns about what he was hearing and seeing, and several dozen of them id never met him before several dozen of them wrote a letter explaining why they could never support donald trump to be our commander in chief and [ cheers and applause ] the awesome responsibility that is housed in one person is something i want you to think about between now and the time you vote because i will pledge to you that i will exercise the greatest care and responsibility in all of the powers invested in the office of the presidency. [ cheers and applause ] i also drve. Were going to dip out of secretary clinton trying to rally voters in allendale, michigan, in that crucial state. President obama too is speaking in key states throughout the day, including michigan as well as New Hampshire and pennsylvania later this evening. Lets talk now from durham, New Hampshire, where the president is about to take the stage with white house Communications Director jen socki. Thanks for joining us. Hi, jake. My pleasure. Its a rowdy crowd here. What does it say about the state of the race that the Clinton Campaign thought michigan and pennsylvania are where the president s support is most necessary the day before the election . That seems to be i wouldnt say necessarily the word desperate but michigan and pennsylvania are pretty blue states generally. Well, jake, michigan, pennsylvania, New Hampshire are three states that the president won twice, both times he ran for election. Theyre also states that dont have early vote, which means that tomorrow is game day for voters in all of these states and the president is going to remind people whats at stake, that tomorrow they need to get up early, put warm coats on, get out to the polls. Thats why it was pivotal he came to these three states the day before the election. Let me ask you a more philosophical question, jen. Were nearing the end of the obama presidency, and its quite obvious that White Working Class voters seem to feel abandoned in large numbers by washington, d. C. In any way do you see the fact that so many of them and a constituency that used to be a democratic constituency years ago, the fact that they have turned away and they are looking towards donald trump, is that in any way a failure of president obama and the Democratic Party . Well, i think, jake, were going to wait until the Election Results come in tomorrow to see how everything shakes out. Theres no question that this country has been through a brutal election, one thats been kind of shaded by dark and gloomy predictions of where the country is going and were going to need to do a lot of work. The president is going to need to do a lot of work to bring the country together but the fact is the president did better in 2012 and 2008 with White Working Class voters than people thought he would. He he also still appeals to White Working Class voters today. We need to take a close look at who we are as a country once this election is sofover and fie out how we come together in the weeks and months ahead and thats going to be a big journey for everyone. President obama appeared on real time with bill maher over the weekend. I want you to take a listen to this from a different part of the same show. Take a listen. I know liberals made a big mistake because we attacked your boy, bush, like he was the end of the world and he wasnt and mitt romney we attacked that way. I gave obama a million dollars. Mitt romney wouldnt have changed my life that much or yours no. Or john mccain. They were honorable men who we disagreed with and we should have kept it that way. So we cried wolf and that was wrong. But this is real. Yeah. This is going to be way different. Jen, in any way do you agree with bill maher that democrats in some way paved the way for donald trump by painting previous republican nominees as scary extremists when they were not . I dont think the blame belongs on democrats, no. I think theres going to be a lot of postanalysis of how we got to this point, how Republican Voters nominated donald trump, and kind of what the outcome of this election will be. Its going to be a good marking point for republicans to take a look at who they are. Democrats to take a look at how we can Work Together and work across party lines, but i think one of the things that i have been reflecting on over the past couple of weeks and many people have is the letter that president bush wrote to president clinton when they transitioned power, and that is i think something people should take a look at because its a good model for what needs to happen in periods of time postelection after things have been hard fought, after there have been blood, sweat, and tears, but its a time for the country to come together, and thats what were going to hopefully be looking at in the weeks and months ahead. And president obama will write a similar letter no matter who wins tomorrow . I think president obama has long reflected on, hes talked publicly about his place in history and the fact that passing on the presidency is like a passing of a baton. We all know he hopes thats Hillary Clinton and hes working his heart out to make sure thats the case, but he absolutely believes in the peaceful transition of power, and he certainly will abide by that. Im going to take that as a yes. Jen psaki, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Thanks, great to be here. President obama will be taking the stage in New Hampshire. The there are just four electoral votes up for grabs in New Hampshire. Well go there live right after this very quick break. Stay with us. Bp engineers use underwater robots, so they can keep watch over operations below the sea, even from thousands of feet above. Because safety is never being satisfied. And always working to be better. With another new flavor you never saw coming. Because safety is never being satisfied. Grilled, glazed korean bbq shrimp. And try as much as you want of flavors like new parmesan peppercorn shrimp. Just come in before it ends. Teachers, firefighters and nurss support prop 51. Prop 51 repairs older schools and removes dangerous lead paint and pipes ensuring classrooms are safe for all students. For safe schools vote yes on 51. Teachers, nurses and firefightes support prop 51. Prop 51 will upgrade libraries, science labs, and Classroom Technology and relieve School Overcrowding creating more opportunity. And better learning for students help students succeed vote yes on 51. A. Welcome back to the lead. Were waiting for president obama in New Hampshire where he will try to rally voters to go vote for Hillary Clinton, his former secretary of state. We will go there live to the Granite State as soon as mr. Obama hits the stage, but first donald trump says disenfranchised workers across the rust belt and the country, for that matter, are, quote, just one day away from the change they have been waiting for their entire lives. Thats his Closing Argument and hes hammering it home today in florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, pennsylvania, and in michigan. Sara murray is in manchester, New Hampshire, where trump and mike pence will try to rally supporters in a few hours. Our cnn poll of polls in New Hampshire shows donald trump trailing Hillary Clinton by three points. Is that where the trump team feels the race is right now, just a few points behind her there . Reporter no. They feel like its an even closer race than that. Honestly, jake, talking to some political operatives in New Hampshire, they feel the same way, that this could be a dead even race, maybe a onepoint race. Donald trump has an affinity for this state. Its the state that delivered him his first victory as a president ial candidate in the primaries here in New Hampshire. The Trump Campaign never really felt like this was a state where he was as far behind as some of the public polls suggested. And certainly in the wake of the original comey letter and the obamacare increases they began to see republicans coming home. The question is whether he has broadened his base of support far enough beyond this primary electorate to be able to clinch a general election victory. Interesting. And sara, trump closing out the final day of the trail with a rally in grand rapids, michigan. Is he in michigan because pennsylvania might be out of reach and they need a state that size . Reporter theyre in michigan because they need to flip a state, jake. They have seen the same early voting numbers that we have seen which suggest a spike in latino voters in places like nevada and places like florida, and they realize no matter what donald trump says publicly, privately this does not bode particularly well for them. Thats why you have seen them touching down in as many of these midwestern states as possible. Its why hes having his closing rally in michigan. Its why he even made this trip to minnesota yesterday to just sort of put a toe in the water and say, hey, maybe there are enough working class white voters here we could try to flip this as well. Theyre very aware they have narrow paths to victory and they might have to come up to a new route to 270. All the public polls also show him trailing in michigan. It will be a steep climb for him there, jake. All right. Minnesota, a state that hasnt gone republican in a president ial race since the nixon landslide of 1972. Sara murray, thank you so much. Be sure to tune into cnn tomorrow for all day election coverage. We are just minutes away from president obamas Second Campaign stop of the day. We will bring that to you live right after this quick message. Stay with us. 3, 2, 1 [whispered rocket] we asked people to write down the things they love to do most on these balloons. Travel with my daughter. Roller derby. Now give up half of em. Do i have to . This is a tough financial choice we could face when we retire. But, if we start saving even just 1 more of our annual income. We could keep doing all the things we love. Prudential. Bring your challenges. Welcome back to the lead. President obama about to hit the stage any minute in New Hampshire. Well go there live as soon as he does. Lets focus in on three important battleground states, michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire. My Political Panel will join me, Mary Katharine ham, ker stin powers, Gloria Borger and david axelrod. 50 of floridians have already voted and more have voted early or absentee than all of the voters in florida in the year 2000. Here is the brokedown of how people have voted. 40 democrat, 38 republican, 22 no party. Donald trump needs florida. Theres no path to the presidency without florida. He needs florida, he personally wants florida because he spends a lot of time there. Republicans feel like theyre doing fairly well in the early voting stuff. Its a little hard because we dont have 2008s exact early vote numbers, so its sort of apples and oranges, but the spike in the latino vote looks troubling for donald trump if were assume theyre mostly not voting for donald trump which i assume. Thats going to be hard to claw back. What do you make of it all in florida . I think its maybe closer than democrats would like in the early vote because even if youre up, democrats get more votes in the early vote, so that means more people will be showing up on game day to vote, but, again, theres a huge latino vote and weve heard a lot about people saying the latino vote is being undercounted. In that situation it could make up the difference. Its just neck and neck. I dont think we know whats going to happen there. When you have more than a 100 increase in one segment of the voting population, you have to pay attention, and i was talking to a republican earlier today who said we are paying a lot of attention to this. This is very troubling, and i think democrats now believe that they can win that state by two to three points. Again, we dont know. Its early voting but the surge in latino voting is going to be a big story coming out of this campaign. One of the things that is interesting i should say about the results in florida in the early vote is this fairly significant increase in people with no Party Affiliation who have turned out which, first of all, makes it harder to group out, but that group is disproportionately nonwhite and hispanic. So the suspicion is that a lot of new voters came in, registered, and are even though they didnt name a Party Affiliation, arent there to vote for donald trump. Democrats are pretty confident about florida. David, let me ask you speaking of confidence, what are they doing in michigan . I think its a precautionary measure because michigan a lot of these industrial states, midwestern industrial states, will be closer, i think, than they were in 2012. I think the problem for donald trump is this isnt horseshoes. You actually have to win. You cant just come close, and what i think the purpose of being in michigan is to try and make sure that it stays close in her favor and part of it has to do with turnout in detroit, which is a concern, and some of these areas with the africanamerican populations there is a real interest in hitting the turnout hard because you dont have the first africanamerican president on the ballot this time. And you dont have early voting. So you really dont have as good a gauge as you might have in some of these other states, so i think theyre trying to play protectively here and do the same thing in pennsylvania as they are in michigan. I just think i feel like a little too much is being made of the michigan thing actually. Youre very skeptical. Yeah, because i do think, look, they dont have early voting. You need to turn people out. This is a linchpin. They obviously cant afford to lose there. They have theyre trying to get to 270, you know, and then anything after that is gravy. This is how they get to 270. Theyre going to states, pennsylvania, again they dont have early voting. Theyre going to states and turning out their voters. I dont think it means theyre in fear of losing michigan and pennsylvania to donald trump. I think his message was a threat to the Clinton Campaign in those rust belt states and somewhere like michigan where it is day of, theyre hoping for this surge. I think, frankly, if it had been coupled with normal tv spending a and normal get out the vote that a regular conventional campaign would have had, he might have had a better shot, but i think this close its really a stretch. Also how about a normal candidacy because right. Part of the problem is in these suburban areas particularly among women and College Educated women, you dont have the typical republican vote, and that is hampering him in all of these states. One of the things thats interesting obviously, kirsten, is in North Carolina. I want you to take a look. The raleigh news and Observer Says that the North Carolina Republican Party put out a memo saying the Obama Coalition is crumbling and pointing to a drop in tirnout along africanAmerican Voters. In some way the Republican Party there is celebrating fewer voters turning out. Yeah. But also a lot of democrats are saying, you know, this was planned. You know, republicans and those who control have limited the number of early voting sites, et cetera. Right. Yeah, well, i mean, it remains to be seen but they have done sort of overt Voter Suppression effort there. We dont know if thats the reason were seeing lower numbers or not but its certainly conceivable. Hillary clinton is underperforming barack obama in North Carolina right now. I heard the Clinton Campaign talking about how the latino vote was going to really come out for them, which im sure they will but thats a very small percentage of North Carolina. Let me jump in with the North Carolina numbers. Actually overall as a north carolinian. The hours and number of sites for early voting were up. They were compressed into the last week and fewer in the first week. Thats part of the dropoff. The actual numbers are up. The number of hours and sites is up over a shorter period of time. A little tar heel reality check there. Thank you so much. Were going to take a quick break. Were still waiting for president obama to come. Stay with us. Well be right back. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare . Thats a good thing, but it doesnt cover everything. Only about 80 of your part b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. So consider an aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. Like all standardized Medicare Supplement insurance plans, they pick up some of what medicare doesnt pay and could save you in outofpocket medical costs. Call today to request a free decision guide to help you better understand what medicare is all about and which aarp Medicare Supplement plan works best for you. With these types of plans, youll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. Plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. Theres a range of plans to choose from, too, and they all travel with you anywhere in the country. Join the millions who have already enrolled in the only Medicare Supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an Organization Serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations. And provided by unitedhealthcare insurance company, which has over 30 years of experience behind it. Call today. Remember, Medicare Supplement insurance helps cover some of what medicare doesnt pay. Expenses that could really add up. These kinds of plans could save you in outofpocket medical costs. Youll be able to choose any doctor who accepts medicare patients. And there are virtually no referrals needed. So dont wait. With all the good years ahead, look for the experience and commitment to go the distance with you. Call now to request your free decision guide. This easytounderstand guide will answer some of your questions and help you find the aarp Medicare Supplement plan thats right for you. Welcome back. Were expecting president obama to come out on stage in New Hampshire any moment. He is vouching for Hillary Clinton on the final day of campaigning in this very, very, very long election. Were back with our Political Panel. Lets talk about the other thing going on in New Hampshire, which is a very Competitive Senate race between incumbent republican senator kelly ayotte and the governor, Maggie Hassan. How do you think the senate races are going to go . Im knot going to make you do a scorecard, but do you think the democrats need to pick up five seats to have a clear majority. So when we started this campaign, the conventional wisdom was that republicans were going to lose control of the senate. There was no way they were going to keep it. They had so many people up in blue states, and they were going to lose, and that is not the case now. The people who are running the Republican Senate Campaign Committee have done a terrific job of localizing their races and allowing their candidates to do whatever they have to do to either distance themselves from donald trump if that is the case or hug donald trump if they need to, and i think that the candidates sometimes have been inartful about it, but they have run their own get out the vote operation over at the Republican Senatorial committee and i think that its actually miraculous for them in their work that we are now talking about the fact that, you know what . The senate might not change hands. Theres only one republican that i know everyone is confident is going to lose his seat, and that is your senator, mark kirk in illinois. But even ron johnson from wisconsin who looked vulnerable, it seems to be neck and neck. Its much closer than people assumed it would be. On the other side people that you evan bayh was a lock and theres a strong sense he may not win. Being a establishment anything is not necessarily good this year. But in nevada, which is the one seat that democrats were worried about, it now looks like democrats will retain harry reids seat. Illinois, wisconsin, theres a lot of talk on both sides, pennsylvania may turn democrat, pat toomeys seat. This New Hampshire race becomes very consequential because democrats need four if Hillary Clinton wins to control the senate and people are watching this intently because its been a close race throughout. And donald trump has dragged down, you know, kelly ayotte in New Hampshire and i think even if you look at pennsylvania, toomey has had to distance himself i dont think toomey said who hes voting for. And i think he said hes going to be a check on donald trump or Something Like that. Youre putting these people in a very awkward position in a place like pennsylvania where there are Trump Supporters who arent going to like the fact hes doing that and kelly ayotte has had to do this back and forth of trying to figure out how to be close to him, not be close to him, and finally repudiating him so it could be consequential. Theres the Indiana Jones scene where the boulder is coming up behind him. The Senatorial Committee saw the boulder earlier than others did and they instructed the Senate Candidates who it turns out are quite good candidates to make teir way in the best way they could. Probably the strongest democratic newcomer this year is candor in missouri, young secretary of state running against senator blunt, a veteran of washington, and even though donald trump is doing well in missouri, both sides think that that could be at turned seat. Why . Because blunt is a pillar of the washington establishment. His whole family are lobbyists, which has been made a lot of in that race. Again, its a bad time to be part of the washington establishment. And good news for the Senate Candidates in somewhere like pennsylvania and New Hampshire that theres all this talk about it being close because that keeps people interested, keeps them getting out there. If they lose too much on the trump thing, theyre a wash but the question is with turnout. When youre trying to turn out voters say in a state like florida and many people who were voting for marco rubio, for example, are not going to be voting for donald trump. So when youre republicans and youre trying to turn out the vote, sometimes the Senate Campaign committee has to go separate ways from the Republican National committee because they may be trying to turn out different voters, and its kind of like a sophies choice there. What do we do . The flip is true too though. There are people who are voting for donald trump who may not be voting for the Senate Candidates. The reason the nevada race turned was because joe heck, the republican candidate there, took a strong stand against donald trump after that tape came out, and there was a rebellion among trump voters in northern nevada, and that has been jeopardizing him in that race. You know, its interesting, American Voters used to split their tickets a lot more than they do. They dont do it now. I think Ron Brownstein told me one out of tep does it. I wonder if we will see more ticket splitting because of the trump effect both trump voters who dont vote for the republican senator because they dont think hes been sufficiently supportive of donald trump and vice versa, people who like marco rubio but dont like donald trump. I think we will. I think we will. Of course, its only anecdotal but there are plenty of people who are saying the way theyre going to deal with the trump phenomenon is just to go in and dont vote for the top and vote republican all the way down or vote for hillary and vote republican all the way down. To davids point, trump is on the stump reminding people how he beat rubio in florida. Did he do that . Hes always talking about the primary. The tricky thing is for the Republican Party as an entity, who do you turn out . Do you turn out voters who are going to support your embattled Senate Candidates . Even if theyre not for donald trump . Do you turn out trump voters . This is one of the organizational headaches the republicans have. And thats why the Senate Campaign is often operating separately because last summer the head of the Republican Senate Campaign Committee sent out a memo which we all read and which at the time was criticized, but it was about how we run with donald trump at the top of the ticket and how if you need to distance yourself, distance yourself. You know whats interesting, the Republican National committee, everyone talks about how the Trump Campaign doesnt really have any serious get out the vote effort, no serious ground game, but the Republican National committee does, and they have been building this based on the 2008 obama model trying to match what you guys were able to build in 2008 that was so impressive, and right now as david points out, in some cases theyre going to have to choose because there are voters out there that well, they are choosing. That they know that are out there that have not yet gone to the polls, and they have figured out which ones are rubio voters and which ones are rubio but not trump voters. Theyre going to have to pick. Here is another thing about this, you build a model like when we were building a model in the Obama Campaign in 2012, it was built to create a profile of the voter who was going to vote for barack obama, not necessarily the partisan voter, but the voter who was going to vote for barack obama. If you build a party model, youre building a model to brngk out republicans, people disposed to vote republican but not necessarily the model of the republican who is going to vote for donald trump. So there are all kinds of complications here because of this kind of shotgun wedding of donald trump and regular republicans. Let me ask you quick because we havent talk abouted the North Carolina race between richard burr and the democrat ross. How is that looking . Well, i think they dont feel great about it in North Carolina. Burr is has a bit of an establishment reputation. I know plenty of republicans in North Carolina are not super enthused about him. Also not super enthused about trump and its going to be a really, really tight race. So im not sure how that one is going to fall honestly. To the point about the rnc have the data and the predictor models for this stuff. You may notice the Trump Campaign doesnt always listen to the rnc so i think thats a real issue as they try to figure out who to turn out and who not. Thats why Senate Candidates are on their own. They just have to distance themselves when they have to and they have their own set of analytics. Theyre getting out their voters. Its a tough thing to try to negotiate, tough path. Kirsten, senator ayotte not a trump supporter in particular, asked at the debate do you think donald trump is a role model. Said yes. Unfortunate timing. A few days later the tape comes back, had to walk it back. Even before that she were struggling, she was saying like im voting for him but im not endorsing him. Its difficult for people like kelly ayotte who is a politician and a Public Servant in her own right to figure out how to zede with this guy. Jild argue you should probably stick to your principles but im not a politician. But, you know, look if youre a republican and you rely on, you know, white educated women voters, youre going to have to make a decision here because theyre not voting for donald trump. But you go to manchester and some other parts of New Hampshire where you have nonCollege Educated white voters who are committed to trump, you also dont want to slight them. Can i just ayotte is different. Im sorry to interrupt. Speaking of New Hampshire, lets go to president obama who is taking the stage in durham, New Hampshire. There are only four electoral votes in the state of New Hampshire, but those four could mean the difference between president Hillary Clinton and president donald trump. Lets listen in. Hello, New Hampshire oh, it is good to be back in durham and its a good day to be a wildcat every day is a good day to be a wildcat. Can everybody please give it up for our outstanding Public Servants, your senator Jeanne Shaheen representative Annie Mcclain custer, and two women you can send to join them in washington, your governor and next United States senator Maggie Hassan and your next congresswoman, Carol Shay Porter your next governor, collin van orston. And give it up for two great friends of mine, former congresswoman Gabby Giffords and her husband and former astronaut, mark kelly i have got to say because this is i think going to be my last big event, yeah i mean, we got one in philly but, you know, michelle is talking there is i wont get any attention, so i want to take some time just to thank some very special people who have put everything theyve got into this campaign, not just here in New Hampshire but across america, and that is all the grassroots organizers who worked so hard every single day. They dont get a lot of attention. Some of them, some of them started on my first campaign. They picked up the phones. They hit the streets. They just live and breathe the hard work of change. I could not be prouder of them. Theyre the best organizers on the planet, and i could not be more proud of you so thank you, organizers, for the great work you do. I love you back. I do. So one more day, New Hampshire, one more day. One more day and you okay. I cant hear you, but i appreciate you. Obama obama i want to welcome our viewers in the United States and around the world. I am wolf blitzer in the situation room. Were listening to president barack obama as he stumps for Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire on this, the eve of the president ial election. Lets listen in to the president. So we get one more day, and we can choose the politics of blame and divisiveness and resentment or choose a politics that says were stronger together. Tomorrow, tomorrow you can choose whether we continue t