Transcripts For CNNW Starting Point 20120103

kids to tell us why in a "starting point" exclusive. plus, get real. we have not found any skeletons in rick santorum's closets. a lot of sweater vests. like a lot. facebook twit irpicked up on his wardrobe. if you don't believe me, we're going to show you the music video of the sweater vest. not kidding. a very busy two hours. besides michele bachmann and family, newt gingrich and his two daughters joining us. senator rand paul pitching for his father, and members of occupy iowa will be occupying the diner right here. so "starting point" begins right now. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com a lot of heavy rockmusic this morning. good morning, everybody. you're looking at the waveland cafe. inside is where we are in iowa. the caucuses finally here, first ever the nation's caucuses. this is a horse race it's mitt romney leading by a nose. ron paul trying to mike it a photo finish. it's rick santorum surging from the rear and newt gingrich hedging his bets, admitting he may not be winning in iowa. michele bachmann says, put your money on the long shot and, perry, well, he is chasing santorum at this point. take a listen. >> in this thing with all of our passion and the strength and do everything we can to get this campaign on the right track to go across the nation, and to pick up other states and to get the ballots i need, the votes i need to become our nominee. >> who knows what's going to happen tomorrow night. i think i'll probably come in somewhere between first and fourth, but i have -- i honestly have no idea where we'll be on that list. but it's, to me, very exciting, a very exciting time. >> it liberty is the most important issue, the most important responsibility of government is to protect liberty. and not to be the policemen of the world and not to have a runaway welfare state. >> i think tomorrow night will issue a very different result than what people are seeing, because, again, still, 50% of the people register in the polls as undecided, in iowa. very strong suspicion we're going to see a lot of people coming out and voting for me. >> yeah, but undecideds not the word of the day. the word of the day is momentum and the candidate who has momentum going into tonight is rick santorum. a survey taken december 27th to 2es 30th had his 15% behind mitt romney and ron paul. then in a smaller two-day poll using just the two most recent days in that survey, he explodes. jumps to 21%, surging past ron paul. let's get right to jim acosta, who's in des moines, for quite a while. at the site of the rock the caucus event where santorum and ron paul will speak later today. jim, good morning. give me a sense of the feel. is it desperation among candidates? is it enthusiasm? is it confidence? what are you seeing? >> reporter: you know, i think it's excitement. you know, we were out chasing rick santorum around yesterday, and, you know, honestly, soledad, i felt i was beamed into a twilight zone universe. here we are with the international press and hundreds of iowans chasing rick santorum around. you know, this is a senator, former senator, who lost his re-election bid back in 2006 by 18 percentage points and now is on the verge of perhaps winning the iowa caucuses. it is kind of amazing to behold. at the same time, i think the big question that will be answered tonight, soledad, which republican be party are we looking at? the republican party of mitt romney? if he wins the iowa caucuses and then goes on to win the new hampshire primary, he's going to be very hard to stop. if not, if rick santorum or ron paul wins these iowa caucus, then, perhaps, it's a republican party who hasn't figured out who their standard bearer is. perhaps oun to stop mitt romney from winning this nomination. exciting and interesting to see what happens tonight. >> yes, we'll be watching closely as well. jim acosta, thank you. appreciate it. right to our panel. ron bownstein, senior political analy analyst, jamal simmons, dnc communications adviser. david fromme is with us and a cnn contributor, appreciate you join us. right to it. the tone is so interesting. like, i can't believe i'm chasing santorum, who did not even win his re-election bid. >> 1,000 votes in 2006. a big number. what feels even more -- rick perry. we got in the race, looked like he was the co-front-runner with mitt romney and here in the final days of the caucus attacking rick santorum, which is kind of a measure how far his star has fallen. someone has to win this caucus. >> what the surge is -- >> a last-minute standing element. >> did you see the science fiction movie, everyone on the planet die, one guy wakes up and he's the only guy on earth? that's rick santorum. he has a retail campaign, actually, but not on tv. no one saw him. all the other candidates died. when newt gingrich collapsed, that vote had to go somewhere. guess who, the only guy they didn't know? rick santorum. >> his supporters would say, working every county. they would say, here's a guy talking about blue collar jobs and connecting with people. not that everybody else in the campaign trail dropped dead and he's just the last guy. >> the message, blue collar jobs is important and one that's referred to little in this race. that's very powerful. his support is responding to the pro-life message much more. i think we would -- a lot of press would like santorum to do well, that would validate campaigning. he has been doing iowa the way you're supposed to. the way jimmy carter did it. >> old school. 99 counties. >> and because the alternative is that actually mitt romney can win even though he's campaigned here very little and simply used the overwhelming power of money to defeat and destroy newt gingrich and rick perry. if that turns out to be the story line i think a lot of people in the press will not be so happy. >> also, i'm going to, fake like you're gladys knight and we just joins they. s a s -- just joined the pips. >> we can't sing or dance. >> neither can i. i like that. go ahead. >> i think when you look at what rick santorum has been doing, opportunity means preparation. certainly true, this candidate is so much better than what he wa before. he's somebody who knows iowa. he knows a lot of people he's been talking to, been there so long. i went to see him yesterday for a little while and he is so much more compelling on the stump that i thought he would be. >> apartment calm. he's actually -- >> there have been two central namices in this race all wait through. mitt romney, solid, consolidating some of the more moderate secular pragmatic parts of the part and the more conservative wing of the party, overlapping circles of tea party supporter at evangelical christian whose have not settle and a candidate. that's where we've seen the bouncing around from bachmann to perry to cain to gingrich and now santorum. the process demands an alternative to romney. the question, if it is santorum here, does he have the capacity to the grow into a true national threat? the romney campaign, pretty dubious. >> that's really the translation, that's let's not attack him yet. we're not sure he can be a national candidate. >> for the budweiser candidate, the question you put on the survey is, who would you rather have a beer with? who's the populist guy? the working man's candidate? you said it. this guy's from pittsburgh. that's his home. he knows steel mills don't just build towns, they build families, and there isn't a candidate you know, mitt romney's campaign is a campaign for the american investor knop one's yet grabbed that slot for the american worker. hey, i don't blee washingteliev washingtonal going to solve our problem. i believe 300 million americans are going to solve our problems. i believe in you. if he goes to new hampshire and talks about the american worker, there's a place for rick santorum to go further than you think. >> move him out of the conservative social space and -- >> getting ready for the next state. and that is the mark on national security. he opened his rally, credit sized president obama for not dealing effectively with iran. not just an attack on president obama. the laying down of the attack on ron paul we'll hear moff you. >> speaking of the poll, go to non-electable poll pup like that, and ron paul has a dubious honor of leading the unelectedable poll at 29% and then michele bachmann at 28% and gingrich at 11%. mitt romney, one of those electable polls obviously. so ron paul, you know, is this where, really, he's going to reach his height and then die? >> ron paul running for president in the industry, i think he builds a newsletter, mailing list. he is going to -- because this is what he has been doing forever and will continue to do forever. it can be managed the way it becomes actually quite personally lucrative. the famous newsletters were about. a way of earning a living. he goes the distance, because he lives on the land in a way that a candidate like newt gingrich cannot do. >> he's got a built-in following of folks, libertarians who -- anyway, a lot of americans are libertarian more than conservative. philosophically. his is a pure boiled down essence of libertarianism. and you're thinking, rand paul, can't ignore the fact, rand paul spending time here, interesting to see if he shows up here -- >> ron paul and more about maybe what president rand paul? interesting theory. >> more about building a movement. >> it is but also -- you also are seeing, this is the kind of candidacy that has the rationale i think, dave was saying, for a lot of reasons to keep going long after it's clear you're not going to be the nominee. >> stick around all morning. i appreciate it. i know what you'll be doing tonight. we'll be together tonight. the caucus coverage for cnn. also we're going to talk about the occupy wall street movement as well. before i get to that, our special is called "america's choice 2012: coverage of the iowa caucuses." i'm sure we have a graphic, begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern right here in the cnn election center. also we'll get to christine romans with other stories making news for us this morning. hey, christine. good morning. >> good morning. nice to see you this morning, soledad. syria's news agency is reporting an armed terrorist group blew up a gas pipeline cutting off supplies to two power plants. anti-government activists claim the regime blew it up to distract international monitors from continuing their work in syria. in los angeles, an arrest in connection with that string of arson fires. police say 24-year-old harry burkhart is a pesuspected of mo than 50 fires. looking at an immigration dispute as a motive there. and mount rainier closed again to the public while authorities investigate the death of a park ranger and mother of two margaret anderson and the man suspected of killing her. the alleged gunman, benjamin colton barnes, he was found dead in that car apparently from exposure. u.s. markets back open today after being closed yet for the new year's holiday. stock futures for the dow, nasdaq and s&p, all up sharply pointing to a higher open right now to start off the new year, and soledad, for the year last year, the s&p 500 basically flat. after all of those ups and downs, it ended right where it started, soledad. back to you. >> christine, thanks. appreciate it. coming up on "starting point," the occupy wall street movement making its presence felt here in iowa. three members of the movement are going to occupy our space at the waveland cafe. what they have planned for today. also, senator rand paul live with us. he's going to discuss his father's chances of pulling off an upset in iowa. we'll ask him if the texas congressman is running for office or if it's really about building a movement that could help his son eventually in 2016. and michele bachmann will join us as well. she says she's banking on miracles. polling last, though, in iowa. she'll join us live along with four of her five kids. a "starting point" exclusive. we're back in a moment. stay with us. ski for a day. i want healthy skin for life. 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>> oh, i mean, the socioeconomic gap has become so large, we're all part of the 99%. everybody in this room here. it's our moral obligation to say, no, we need to take that money back and take those jobs back. we need to take our homes back. to make it fair, to make a fair and equal society. >> is it all about money and homes and jobs? marty, i was reading your story. you went from having no any posthigh school education to getting two bachelors degree, then your master's degree, then your ph.d i thought, this is the face of the american dream, that you -- why are you protesting? you sort of lived it? >> yes, i did go from poverty to middle class but i also have five grandchildren that i want them to have that chance as well. so i've been very fortunate and i feel very blessed, but i also know a lot of my friends and family -- >> you're worried. >> -- that aren't doing at well, and i want my grandchildren to have that same opportunity. >> dutch, you worked getting people mortgages and then declared bankruptcy yourself. what did that experience teach you about the economic crisis that this country is in right now? >> the american dream is becoming a dream of the past. like marty said. it's becoming further and further out of reach for the average iowan. >> why are you protesting here in iowa? when people think about the caucuses, almost think about the most grass roots democratic process there can be. people come together with neighbors, talk about issues. this, to me, seems almost the last place you'd want to occupy. why here? >> that's what the occupy movement is all about. we are the grass roots moovemen. they're so partisan, by the time we have the opportunity to vote for any politician, they're already bought and paid for. republican, democrat, two sides ever the same worthless coin. >> so you see -- we've heard a lot about has you're going on the republican side. what are you going to be doing on the democratic side to protest? >> we'll be there, too. we're definitely non-partisan. >> i've been arrested twice. i was -- the democratic party once at the iowa democratic party headquarters, i occupied obama's office for two days. obama's headquarters two days and arrested at the democratic national committee -- >> what's the goal with that? arrested here, but what's, the end goal, to be able to say, and we accomplished -- what? >> reshaped political and economic discourse that is currently being conducted. >> conversation? >> absolutely. starting about real issues. >> if we had the candidates all sitting right here, you've been trying to break into their campaign, brought them here. so what would you say to them? what is the conversation that you feel they're not speaking to? >> first of all, they're just not speaking to us, period. we invited them to come speak with us. that's what the caucuses are all about. candidates come to talk with us. so we would assume they would have wanted to talk to us, but they didn't. so we came to them. >> will you disrupt the caucuses? >> no. that is not at all our agenda. >> it appears that you will disrupt the caucuses? >> we're trying to get used to that idea that people are scared of us. >> what's going to happen tonight, in a word? just watching what happens? watching the turn out? >> the movement moves where it wants to move. it's very fluid. >> appreciate you coming up. have a cup of coffee and stick around with us this morning. straight ahead on "starting point," michele bachmann joining us, as well as her family. minnesota congresswoman, polling last in iowa but predicting a miracle, she says. bringing four of her five kids in a "starting point" exclusive. that's straight ahead. then it's time to get real. what is up whip the public's op session of rick santorum's xw sweaters? the sweater vest making a comeback. and then talk to ron paul's son senator rand paul, talking about his father's showing in iowa. "starting point" is back in just a minute. stay with us. welcome back, everybody. it is time now for a segment we call "get real." i highlight a segment that seems crazy to me. the public obsession with rick santorum's sweater vest. yes, rick santorum, just like my 7-year-old twin sons he does love the sweater vest. in navy, gray and a tan color. a twitter feed about his vests which is at fearricksvests. and rick santorum's facebook page. if that isn't enough, a music video, i kid you not, it's on youtube. take a look. ♪ ♪ >> pretty catchy. huh? santorum told the "times" his sweaters started getting interest, attention, a few weeks ago when we wore one to a forum in des moines and the other candidates were wearing suits, so he stuck out. really? let's focus on the issue, people. still to come on "starting point" this morning -- kentucky senator rand paul just walked into the dine are wearing, i should point out, the sweater vest. he's going to talk about his father's chances of winning the white house and maybe even rand paul's political future. plus, michele bachmann will join us with four of her five kids. we'll ask why she's so optimistic about the outcome today tonight. you look at the polls it is not a good story for her. a "starting point" exclusive. we'll be back in just a minute. stay with us. only from visine. just one drop instantly soothes and revives tired, overworked eyes. and comforts them for up to ten hours. visine® tired eye relief. try now and save $3. forty years ago, he wasn't looking for financial advice. back then he had something more important to do. he wasn't focused on his future. but fortunately, somebody else was. at usaa we provide retirement planning for our military, veterans and their families. now more than ever, it's important to get financial advice from people who share your military values. for our free usaa retirement guide, call 877-242-usaa. and more. if you replace 3 tablespoons of sugar a day with splenda®, you'll save 100 calories a day. that could help you lose up to 10 pounds in a year. and now get even more with splenda® essentials, the only line of sweeteners with a small boost of fiber, or antioxidants, or b vitamins in every packet. just another reason why you get more... when you sweeten with splenda®. ♪ were back, everybody. i'm soledad o'brien. this is our new show call the "starting point." we're at waveland cafe in iowa. ahead, joined by congressman rand paul, ron paul's son. he might be doing the best job connecting with the youngest of voters. we'll talk about that. i had a chance to witness that firsthand. what happened at a packed rally when rand says one of a number of packed rallies yesterday. we'll talk about whether it's a movement or an industry as well. also ahead, we've got a look at what's happening in the markets and other stories, too. christine romans joins us with top stories. christine, good morning. >> good morning, soledad, in iowa. iran delivers a stern warning to the united states. the country's army chief says iran will take action if a u.s. ship returns to its post to the persian gulf located right near the coast of iran. the ship left its post during iran's navy exercises. iran says it will not repeat this warning. police in england discovered a woman's body on the queen's estate. they're invest getting a murder. police say the body had been on the estate for quite some time and looking into missing person reports and cold cases. vacation over. president obama now back in washington after a holiday in hawaii. the first family landed just a few minutes ago this morning at andrews air force base. president obama is scheduled to speak to supporters in iowa tonight through a video teleconference. u.s. markets back open today after closed yesterday for the new year's holiday. stock futch e for the dow, nasdaq and the s&p 500 up sharply. pointing to a higher open right now to start off the new year after a flat year for the s&p 500 last year. a quick check of the weather right now and how it might affect your travel today. dmold iowa, cold in atlanta. cold on the east coast. rob marciano joins us now. good morning, rob. >> a hint, christine what to pack if you're traveling today. cold air across the south and east. you think bermuda shorts to places like florida? 24 windchill in florida. and tallahassee, feels like 7 in atlanta and 14, windchill factor in birmingham. rebound somewhat, by far the coldest air of the season. freeze warnings in effect for the entire mainland of florida with the exception of miami. if you're traveling out of new york, problems because of the wind. other than that, not too shabby. at least a little better as compared to yesterday. midsection of the country is decent including iowa, albeit chilly. forecast high temperatures today in iowa, soledad, in the low to mid-30s, which actually is above average. so, good weather for the caucuses tonight. back to you. yeah, good weather, but cold weather for the caucuses tonight. thanks, rob. appreciate it. a taste, my own taste, of the republican race here yesterday in des moines when i headed to a ron paul rally held in my hotel. i saw him talk to a diverse crowd. introduced by his son, rand paul. young people, old people, conservative people. people who said they were moderate, people who said they were independents. you got a sense it was more about a philosophy than necessarily asking people to vote for him. i want to take a listen to what he said yesterday. >> liberty is the most important issue, the most important responsibility of government is to protect liberty. and not to be the policemen of the world and not to have a runaway welfare state. >> that was just one example where everybody in the crowd, a big crowd, broke into applause. the meg seem message seems to g on. behind in the polls, just behind mitt romney at 22%. the question, can he pull of a a win in the caucus in iowa. myself to have you, rand paul. good morning. >> good morning. >> i wondered, politico has a little on this. is it a movement as they describe? is it a philosophy, is it as other people said, an industry? is it about -- actually about you and your dreams eventually to maybe have a presidential bid and it's not really about your father? >> i can say, it's not about me, but i can say it is a unique perspective. these are people who are economically conservative but also want a reasonable foreign policy. they're worried about nominating a republican who would be reckless with nuclear weapons, who wouldn't show restraint, who wouldn't understand that congress should vote to declare war. so it's a new combination. these are people who say, well, yes, i'm economically conservative but i want a more moderate or a more reasonable foreign policy, and it brings the young people by the droves. >> it's about a movement? >> i think it's both. i mean, it's about a chance to really win. i mean, we're bringing in so many independents voters as well as republican voters, that ron paul has a real chance of winning here. >> yeah, but when you talk to the young people and there were tons at the rally i went to, they would burst into applause, at least a dozen times. especially, get the government oust your lives. i looked around. how many of these students are on pell grants? how many older people on social security, all governments in your lives. isn't that a contradiction? >> what they see is even the kids who are on student grants realize they have all of these loans to pay back, and there's no jobs out there. why are there no jobs? because we have such a massive debt that is dragging the country down. ron paul is one of the few who would actually cut spending. not the rate of increase in spending. he would cut $1 trillion in spending and balance the budget in three years. the young people believe him, because he's not always politically correct. he's somebody who tells it as he sees it. he doesn't pull any punches and young people, i think, are cynical of it's news, cynical of everything they see. everything is reality tv. they see ron paul and see something genuine. >> she to the left of michele bachmann. he wants to legal item marijuana. >> all of those things are ridiculous. >> those are positions, social conservatives take. >> yes and no. my dad believes in tradition marriage, between a man and woman. >> social conservatives want your dood say the federal government should stand up for that and he's taken the libertarian point. >> and/or the constitutional position. the ninth and tenth amendment, if it's not written in the constitution, the federal government doesn't have the power to do do. those rights and powers are left to the people and states respectively. all he's doing is acknowledging the ninth and tenth amendment. don't social conservatives want him to say, actually we want to stop abortion? we want to stop gay marriage? >> some do. some don't. i'm very conservative and ran in a very conservative state and i believe in traditional marriage but said, look, i don't want my guns registered in washington and i don't want my marriage registered in washington. they accepted that. >> when you look at the non-electable poll, in an electability poll, he's at the top. a really bad poll to be leading. explain that. >> you want to be at the top of the poll of people voting. the people voting today in iowa, he's at the top of the poll. that's tremendous. hoop would you vote for? more independence would vote for ron paul than any other republican. independents are important. look at democrat. more democrats will vote for ron paul than any other republican candidate. he is doing tremendous in the polls. i see nothing but positive coming out of this, and if we win here today, it's going to be huge. some people may squawk about it, but the thing is, there are enough republicans who also believe we want someone reasonable in charge of our nuclear weapons. we don't want someone who's reckless and who wants to bon eve bomb every country in the world. we want someone who believes in some restraint. >> a question, sensitive topic. this whole newsletter thing back in the '80s and '90s. disavowed then, says he wasn't involved in them. a racist consent. order restored in l.a. when it came times for blacks to pick up their welfare checks three day after the righting began. another one, i missed the closet, homosexuals, the rest of society, social pressure forced them to hide those activities. >> i've known my dad a long time. been to his first political speech, probably to thousands of his speeches, i've never seen or heard him say anything publicly or privately that would allow me to think he would not judge a person on consent of their character. >> my question is about -- let me -- >> i don't think that's consistent with who he is. he said he didn't write these. to bring it up to 20 years and again and again and again is not to listen to him. people need to listen to his speeches and listen to what he talks about. >> why i bring it up. to me, doesn't it raise a leadership question? for 20 years, you have these newsletters going out that he said he knew that the newsletters existed. he didn't write the content. doesn't that make you question the leadership ability of someone who had this going on and really did nothing about it? >> what i look at the republican field, one of the most important things to me is, who we elect as commander in chief will be in charge of our nuclear weapons. i think ron paul would be wise, restrained and a lot of people in the republican field scare me because of their willingness to go to war. my dad served in the military but is reluctant to go to war. president obama said this also and he carelessly took us to war in libya without a koncongressil vote. that type of judgment i think is unparalleled and separates him from the field. >> what will you be doing tonight? >> celebrating. >> where are you put your efforts and time in? >> doing television interviews this morning. radio interviews and we'll be here in des moines at our headquarters. >> nice to chat with you. appreciate your time. >> thank you. we're going to take a short break and we are back in just a moment to continue our conversations with our exclusive michele bachmann and her family. they've all arrived and squeezed their way into the diner. we're back in just a moment. stay with us. 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[ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup. life with crohn's disease is a daily game of "what ifs." what if my stomach pain and cramps end our night before it even starts? what if i eat the wrong thing? what if... what if i can't make it through dinner and a movie? what if i suddenly have to go? what if... but what if the most important question is the one you're not asking? what if the underlying cause of your crohn's symptoms is damaging inflammation? for help getting the answers you need visit knowcrohns.com/tv and use the interactive discussion guide to speak with your gastroenterologist. were back, everybody. we're at the waveland cafe this morning and it was not exactly the picture that congresswoman bachmann wanted to represent the day representative steve king came tout to support the cafe. kind of empty. no crowds. a scene that was in stark contrast to what bachmann saw days ago in other letther 11-das tour. she's polls coming in last. bachmann is banking on the 41% who say they could be swayed to change their vote. the question, does she have the organization, does she have the momentum to pull caucusgoers to her side? joining me this morning is the candidate herself, michele bachmann, and is this your first tv interview as a family? honored. second day of my show. first tv interview. very good. introduce me, everybody, in your family. ages and briefly what they do. >> my husband is marcus, of 33 years. >> he's not here. >> missing one kid, too. >> right. our oldest son is lucas. he's a physician. and harrison is 24. he's a teacher. and elisea is just finishing college, two weeks left to go. caroline is also in college, first year. our other daughter sophia couldn't leave college. had to go back. this is -- >> skipping out our school. >> 23 foster children that are grown and launched. >> when you meet people on the campaign trail, what do you say to convince them to vote for your mom? what's your compelling arguments? >> where mom stands on the issues. like here in iowa, a lot of people are the conservative types, and also how she's done in the debates. a lot of people have liked the fact she hasn't backed down on a lot of the issues. been willing to take it to the other candidates. >> sarah palin was on fox news yesterday and this is what she said about you. she said, as for michele bachmann, schae a l bachmann, she has a lot to offer but i don't think it's her time this go-round. is that new to you? >> candidates have gone up and down but only one election so far and i'm the only candidate that won that. a state-wide race. >> straw poll. you came in first. >> straw poll. >> gave a tremendous energy to i don't campaign. >> it did. >> what happened? really after that the polling started to drop? >> ask that of any of the candidates. the candidates have been up, the candidates have been down. it's very fluid. five days and two days from now the numbers are going to be completely different than the ones on the screen. this is the early chapters of the whole 2012 race. there's a long way to go. i have a lot of staying power. i have the competency, the background, i'm a tax lawyer, successful businesswoman. >> how well do you have to do today to have momentum going forward? right now -- >> we're going to do just fine. >> you're number two on that. >> do just fine today. we've bought or plane tickets to south carolina. we're moving forward because i intend to beat barack obama and be the next president of the united states. >> you have taken a lot of flak for some of your very strong social issues, where you stand on them, and i want to talk about some of them. your stance on homosexuality and read a lot of what you said. you said, at educators conference of 2004, gays live a very sad life in that it's part of -- a quote. you've taken a lot of flak for that. >> it's a bizarre thing to bring up. today is the election. what people recognize is that the most important issue that people will be looking at is, who is the best person to deal with the economy? probably someone who's create the a business from scratch. i came from a family where's i was poor poverty. >> you don't want to discuss social issues but want to talk about the economy. i don't think it's a bizarre question. i think it's a fair question. >> it's a gotcha question coming way out of the past. i stand very strong for marriage between one man and one woman. i believe in protecting human life from conception to death. i believe in the family, religious liberty and for people to practice their faith freely. that's important. it's also important we get rid of obamacare. obamacare is socialized medicine is wildly unpopular. of all of the candidates in the race i'm the one who led 40,000 americans to object to obamacare, and i'm the one who mean what's i said. i say what i mean. i'm very consistent. people know that they can count on me. i won't be shifting my positions over the years. >> how come evangelicals seem to give their momentum to rick santorum now? you have a lot of pastors who support you. going to the poll. rick santorum has sort of the momentum in this and you don't. why not? >> if you're looking just at the shift of the last five day, that's one thing. i have over 200 pastors that have come out to endorse me. they're very influential in their communities, in their congregations and i think we're going to see a real surprise at the polls tonight with a depth of support that people didn't recognize that was there. >> all right. i want to talk about this evangelical choice poll on the other side of this commercial break. we'll talk where your ranking in that poll. a quick break and back in a moment. more with the candidates and the family. michele bachmann's got her family with us here. back in a moment. releases armiesology of snowmen masseuse who cuddle up with your soreness and give out polar bear hugs. technology. [ male announcer ] new bengay cold therapy. the same technology used by physical therapists. go to bengay.com for a $3 coupon. can you enjoy vegetables with sauce the same technology used by physical therapists. and still reach your weight loss goals? you can with green giant frozen vegetables. over twenty delicious varieties have sixty calories or less per serving and are now weight watchers-endorsed. try green giant frozen vegetables with sauce. and we are back with more now with minnesota congresswoman michele bachmann and in their first tv interview, four out of her five children. her daughter sophie had to stay in school so she is not here. we have lucas over here and we have harrison, we have caroline and elisa and her husband marcus has joined us. i love doing a show in the cafe. people come on by. they jump in. let me ask a question of the kids. what has been the hardest thing about having a mom who wants to be president of the united states? >> i think we know her, grew up in sporting events, and you see the mom you see on tv and the caricature and things and it's almost two different people. >> people pick on your mom, and they do every candidate frankly, does it make you angry? >> you get used to it after a while and then you realize it isn't so because you know the real individual versus the people they project to be. >> you are very quiet. what would you say people don't know about your mom? >> i think they don't know exactly what we know. she is normal. she is an everyday mom. talking earlier, she is home for thanksgiving, she is home for christmas. one of the first text messages i got was from my mom, happy new year. i think if a lot of people knew that about her, they would change their view of her and understand that she is normal. she's exactly kind of that mom that you have at home, and that's who she really is. >> but my mom is a little crazy, so it's not the mom itch at home. maybe other people's moms they have at home. >> we aren't going to tell your mom you said that. >> she would completely agree. i want to talk about this, this least electable candidate poll. i want to throw that up on the screen because ron paul comes in the top of that at 29%. but you are right behind him at 28%, as i said, and another poll showed where the evangelicals are putting their support and this is a poll that is also a problem for you. you have rick santorum at the top of that poll at 22% and i would have guessed you'd be either there or right below him and you're not. you're down at the bottom, 12%. explain that? >> well, again, there's only been one election and i was the one that was chosen in that election. and the polls go up and down and the sample sizes are pretty small. i think that tonight is going to be the poll for about 12 hours away, and i think the people will speak and it will be profound. >> what makes you think the miracle, as you've called it, is going to happen for you? >> in the last two weeks we saw thousands of people as we traversed iowa flip and go my way. they made the decision to go with me because they saw that when it comes down to it, i'm the one true core conservative who hasn't flipped, who stood up on issue after issue and i've accomplished something in my life. they want a real person. >> our reporters, marcus, have said that at some of these events of the last few days, the numbers are dwindling, that the crowds are small. that's how people go in and they gauge how it's going, right? it's huge. it's packed. the media is here. 00 oh, it only has a couple can of people, it's not going well. >> i think they've been tremendous. >> crowded? jammed? the opposite of what reporters tell us? >> we had 200 people, 250 people. the one you're talk iing about a stop that steve king chose and it's in a town of 500 people in the middle of the day when nobody is there. that is not reflective of everything. >> i buy that. what has to happen in south carolina? you have your tickets. you're flying coach into south carolina. >> we are. >> what has to happen there to make you a viable candidate moving forward? >> we're going to go and make our case to the people of south carolina. i think the values that i hold are very much in line with the values of the people in south carolina and they want someone who will be decisive as a president and lead, and that's what i've done and that's what i will do. >> what will you be doing as a family this evening? >> this evening? >> yeah. >> probably chasing all over, i imagine. i don't know. what do you think? >> i think we'll have some great food, and we have great friends and other family that will be here. >> you're going to hang out together to watch the results coming in? has this been a fun experience for you, 99 counties on a bus, 7,000 miles? >> i think it's fun seeing everyone and them being so positive. i think for us it's more motivation for us seeing the people out there and they're excited to see us. they're excited for what mom has to say. it makes the experience, at least for me, all the more fun. >> south carolina and the bus. it's nice to chat with you. i appreciate michele bachmann joining us with her family and her husband marcus with us as well. still ahead, we talk to newt gingrich about his chances in iowa and his plans for new hampshire and south carolina. we'll talk to the republican candidate. and two of his supporters, his daughters who are with him as well. stay with us. improve the health of your skin with aveeno daily moisturizing lotion. the natural oatmeal formula improves skin's health in one day, with significant improvement in 2 weeks. i found a moisturizer for life. 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[ female announcer ] the travelocity guarantee. from the price to the room to the trip you'll never roam alone. welcome back to our new show "starting point." we are coming to you live from the wave land cafe in des moines, iowa. it's fun to do a show in a cafe, and it's a little crazy, too, especially when candidates keep coming in and out. our "starting point" is decision day. we're hours away from the first real votes of the presidential race. rate now one thing is for sure, pretty much anything can happen. take a look at the latest "des moines register" poll. it says that close to half of all caucusgoers could change their minds. we'll speak to newt gingrich and his daughters who are joining us here, about where he thinks he'll place in iowa, how he thinks that will affect his strategy for new hampshire and south carolina. and i'll bet you didn't know this was in the middle of the middle of midwestern america. iowa's first majority hispanic town. how are they feeling this election season? ignored? and then the big reveal on rick santorum. he's put all his chips in witio and maybe for good reason. we'll show you where santorum's support is coming from this morning. got a packed hour ahead for you from iowa as the 2012 presidential race officially gets under way. iowa's governor will join to us remind us why we're all here. "starting point" begins right now. from the wave land cafe, we begin with a candidate who you might say has been a little bit all over the map here in iowa. newt gingrich has certainly had his ups and downs in the republican race. he was the gop front-runner with a 13-point lead on mitt romney. then came the attack ads hitting gingrich on everything from his personal life to freddie mac to his ads with nancy pelosi. his numbers plummeted and now he's sitting in the back of the pack. a come-from-behind victory isn't out of the question. take a listen. >> i don't think i'm going to win. i think if you look at the numbers, i think that volume of negativity has done enough damage. but on the other hand, if the "des moines register" was right and it's 41%, who knows what's going to happen? >> newt gingrich joins us from davenport, iowa, this morning. his daughters are right here with me. jackie cushman and kathy gingrich. not easy names. nice to have you ladies. i want to start with your dad. newt, you said yesterday i'm not going to win and it caused a lot of uproar among your supporters who said, hey, we're supposed to be caucusing for you. why did you say it and are you back tracking from that now and why? >> what i said was i was asked a question about the impact of the negative ads. if you notice i went on to say there's 41% who are undecided. it's very possible to win. we've talked -- we had 18,000 people in a telephone conference call yesterday afternoon. we reached 89,000 iowans in conference calls. we have more today. we have precinct leaders from all over the state believe those who walk in having a discussion and a substantial number are going to switch. and i've been told again and again in the last 24 hours people who say once you point out that i'm the one person who can debate barack obama and offset his billion-dollar campaign and one person who has created jobs and economic growth in washington twice, once with reagan and once as speaker, and that the difference between me and rand paul on nuclear weapons, those three things seem to be moving substantial votes our way. we are picking up a substantial number of new voters. >> so you have a good point. i hear you, this is a race that's been up and down, up and down, and everybody has been a front-runner for a minute and a half. i'm not going to win and now it sounds like you're back tracking from that. do you regret -- >> i'm not back tracking. i regret saying it the way i said it. what i said was very clear. mitt romney in particular has spent millions of dollars on negative ads and, as you pointed out, i was 13 points ahead. then they came in with this tsunami of negativity and it frankly suppressed me. we have for a week been coming back up. the polls show we have for a week been coming back up. people are discounting all the distortions and all the lies in those ads. so it's now becoming a much closer race and, frankly, with 41% undecided, i think it's very possible nobody knows who is going to win tonight and we're going to go out and campaign all day ending the day atwat waterl with probably 6,000 people. i think there will be a very big turnout tonight and a lot of people are going to walk in still trying to decide what's the right thing for america and what's the right thing they want to do as iowans to start the process. i think we could win. we were, after all, up by 13 points. and i think there are probably four of us in a position to win this come late tonight. >> okay. so i'm going to turn to your daughters who are sitting right next to me. i have kathy and jackie with me. one of you is a marketing executive and your job is to market your dad. who is that? that's you, kathy. how hard has that been? how challenging is it to market newt gingrich? >> soledad, that's a great question, and actually it's been a pleasure. it's been a lot of fun. i wouldn't say hard because we have a great product, if you will, if you look at an individual with the ideas and the credibility that he has. and it's also been fun because we have a team of people who continue to believe in him. and believing in anyone who is in the business, you believe in your product. >> he's been in the game a long time, which means there's a lot of tv commercials. some he says he's regretted doing, sitting down with nancy pelosi. that makes your job challenging. it's not just negative ads but some are around things that actu actually happened. >> i wouldn't say that necessarily makes it any more difficult because the reality is particularly in this instance you say you made a mistake and you move on to the next project that's on the horizon and the actual discussion point that you want to make at that point. >> jackie, how hard has it been, and we just talked to michele bachmann's family, and for the family, i have to tell you, i'd never run for office. for a family, it would be really, really hard to have your family members attacked and to have your personal dirty laundry -- your dad's marriages, divorces, all of that, the investigations, they're all a m matter of public record now, they have them aired by the public. how challenging has that been? >> soledad, we sat down. dad asked us, should i run? what do you think? both kathy and i said it's your decision. if you want to run, we'll support you. we knew what this would be like. >> you knew the negative ads? >> absolutely. at the began running for congress when i was 7 years old. it was a much smaller scale. we were in a small town where everybody knew everybody. it was similar in terms of the impact. the thing i'd like to say to people, if you have questions, if you see these ads, go to newt.org. for instance the nancy pelosi couch issue, he did sit on the couch with her but he's against cap and trade. you really have to look into the real facts regarding these particular ads and they can all be found at newt.org. >> i want to ask you a question, mr. gingrich, and the question for me is what people have criticized about your campaign is organization, that you didn't even bring in anybody, even have a staff office, for example, until just a couple weeks ago. is that really to blame to some degree, maybe not 100%, but to some degree for the slide in the polls and not just the negative and attack ads? >> no. we've built an organization -- >> why not? >> we built an organization in the modern era. we used the internet. we have offices all over the state. we have well over 1,000 people representing us in the precincts tonight, and we keep adding several hundred people a day. we use telephone town hall teleconferences in a way that has been extraordinarily effective. the 89,000 iowans have participated in telephone town conferences in the last couple of weeks. we've had a very effective campaign here. we have a great campaign in new hampshire, in south carolina. we just announced every single county chairman in florida. so i think that's all coming together pretty rapidly. if we had not had an avalanche of romney attack ads, if we had not had a complete distortion of my record, i suspect i'd still be running first. i'm not complaining. >> so what do you do about that going forward? i would guess -- >> well, i think you take them head on. i think you take them head on. i'm running an experiment here in being positive. we've been positive all the way through. every ad we've run has been positive. we've stayed positive and i think that had thousands of iowans come up and say thank you for running a positive campaign. people here trangly are sick of six, seven, eight attack ads an hour. when you spend $3.5 million, $4 million in a state this size on attack ads, it is really, i think, an embarrassment. >> so you said it's an ex pae t experiment and i get a failed experiment, going negative as well. >> we don't know that. >> will you change your strategy going forward? >> we don't know it's failed. we'll see tonight. the number of people in the last three days who have thanked me for being positive has been remarkable. the number of people coming to our meeting, going to places on sunday where we expected 50 people and we had 150 to 250 people showing up. >> so let's say it turns out that -- okay, so let's say it turns out that you do not do well tonight. let's just guess. you've said several times now, it could go either way. forget it, you're going for attack ads and it's going to get nasty and you're going to move off this promise of nonattack? >> no. >> what's the strategy change as you head to south carolina? >> well, first of all, let me pose to you, what if it works tonight and then you have a whole generation of consultants who are unemployed because it turns out that nasty -- >> but i don't answer questions. that's a valid question, but i'm asking the questions here, sir. >> okay. all right. look, the most i would ever do is go to a straight contrast and contrast romney's moderate massachusetts record with my conservative record, but i'm not going to go to the kind of attack ads they've been running. i think it disserves the american people to run ads that are dishonest and i think it's sad he had to stoop to that level. >> okay. i want to get a final question to your daughters. and i want to start with a clip of your dad talking about your grandmother and he started to tear up and i want to play that for everybody because people wrote about it and talked about it the next day. let's play that. >> brain science comes in directly from dealing with the real problems of real people in my family. and so it's not a theory. it's, in fact, my mother. >> when we said we were going to run that, both of you said, oh. your dad doesn't strike me as a guy who cries. what was it like to see that you? of course it was played on tv. what did you think? >> i think it was hard. we have to remember part of why he's not seen as a man who shows a lot of emotion is because he comes from a family where his father was a career army officer. his father served in the infantry for 27 years. he comes from a family that has a life of service to this country. he's not used to showing a lot of emotion. we were in the front row and kathy was happeneding him a kleenex to wipe his tears. she is much more thoughtful than i am. it explains to people how passionate he is about things and why he's driven for certain policy decisions because of his love for people. >> i want to thank you for coming in on behalf of your dad, kathy and jackie joining us this morning and also newt gingrich who was joining us from davenport this morning. thank you very much. appreciate it. ahead, you can join me tonight as the country's first real votes start coming in. the candidates have their first true test. a special live america's choice iowa caucus at 7:00 p.m. eastern in the cnn election center. we hope you'll join us for that. i want to get to a check with christine romans and the other stories making news. good morning there, soledad. thanks. we're learning more about a potential motive for an alleged arson spree in los angeles. police arrested 24-year-old henry burkhart in connection with more than 50 fires. they say an immigration dispute involving the suspect's mother may have led to those attacks. the taliban in afghanistan striking a political deal. they have reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to establish an office in the persian gulf nation of qatar. and the first real blast of winter, folks, hitting the great lakes, head iing south, heading east. freeze warnings are up as far now south as florida. u.s. markets back open today after being closed yesterday for the new year's holiday and it's not cold and frigid in stocks because the dow, the nasdaq and s&p 500 are all up sharply pointing to a higher open to start off the new year. soledad, back to you. >> all right, christine, thank you very much. still to come on "starting point" candidates crisscrossing iowa. it's been going on for months in search of votes. why hasn't a single one of them been to west liberty, iowa? it's the only city in iowa predominantly hispanic? after tonight everyone is packing their bags for new hampshire. does iowa even matter? we'll ask the republican governor of the state. and then later this hour, the reveal. all the news outlets are telling you about rick santorum's surprising surge and the reveal will go behind the headlines. find out how he's doing it. this was the gulf's best tourism season in years. all because so many people wanted to visit us... in louisiana. they came to see us in florida... nice try, they came to hang out with us in alabama... once folks heard mississippi had the welcome sign out, they couldn't wait to get here. this year was great but next year's gonna be even better. and anyone who knows the gulf knows that winter is primetime fun time. the sun's out and the water's beautiful. you can go deep sea fishing for amberjack, grouper and mackerel. our golf courses are open. our bed and breakfast have special rates. and migrating waterfowl from all over make this a bird watcher's paradise. so if you missed it earlier this year, come on down. if you've already been here come on back... to mississippi... florida... louisiana... alabama. the gulf's america's get-a-way spot no matter where you go. so come on down and help make 2012 an even better year for tourism on the gulf. brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. you'd do that for me? really? yeah, i'd like that. who are you talking to? uh, it's jake from state farm. sounds like a really good deal. jake from state farm at three in the morning. who is this? it's jake from state farm. what are you wearing, jake from state farm? [ jake ] uh... khakis. she sounds hideous. well she's a guy, so... [ male announcer ] another reason more people stay with state farm. get to a better state. ♪ welcome back, everybody. we are down to the wire in iowa today. over the last year we've seen candidates crisscrossing the state, you know, doing the candidate thing, shaking hands, making speeches, kissing babies. they visited over 150 towns in the state. you can see if we show you the map there all those dots on the map. that's where they have visited. there's one town they haven't and that's west liberty. what's particularly special about west liberty? well, it is the first ma jrt hispanic town in iowa. more than 50% of the latino population there registered voters. latino culture, west liberty, very strong. it boasts the state's first dual language program in schools. kids can learn hatch the day in ink lish and the other half in spanish. why have the candidates not stopped in to seep the folks in west liberty is this rate to our guest this morning, a new u.s. citizen, jose, running for city council now. a candidate for the iowa state house of representatives is also the former editor of the west liberty index newspaper. sue hanson is a superintendent of the west liberty community school district and ef lynn cardines enrolled her kids in that same dual language program. nice to have you all with us this morning. appreciate it. you saw that map. >> yes. >> with the orange dots. which meant candidates have been all over the state but they have not been to west liberty. why not and does it anow you that they have not been there? >> i do feel a little bit us from traited with the fact candidates haven't been to west liberty. i think that they don't realize that we have a say. that we are going to be out in the polls voting. i think they think the population is too small, only 5% hispanic in the state of iowa. >> so why bother? is that your take on it? >> yes. >> if you're not looking at maps and look at population, you look at increase, right, trends, it tells a very different story. so if you look at the population in west -- in iowa back in 2000, it was 2.8% of the population. then the number you're talking about now in 2010 has grown to 5%. that's almost doubling the population in a relatively small time. jose, is that part of the reason you're running for office, that there was this hispanic boom, as little as it might seem, here in iowa? >> definitely. what i intend to do is start a trend, to get representation at the local level, the state level, and at the federal level. we have to get organized, get the ball out and start participating. >> when they polled the folks and talked to the folks in west liberty, you get an accommodating attitude toward immigrants in that particular town. sarah, you've been a journalist before you started to work as a representative. was west liberty always like this? >> as far as? >> having accommodating attitudes. >> since i've been there, i moved to west liberty in 2006. the newspaper, just for instance, had little representation of the hispanic community. i tried to move to change that. i published the first bilingual special section in the state. and i think people have definitely become more accommodating with the growth of the dual language program, it's definitely become -- people are more accepting, more tolerant, and i think it's definitely moved towards that and especially now with the majority/minority it's definitely -- >> we're going to talk about that school's program because it's become a model not only in west liberty but really across the country as well. we're going to take a short break. we'll come back with our guests representing west liberty this morning. the majority/minority up to. [ female announcer ] splenda® no calorie sweetener is sweet... and more. if you replace 3 tablespoons of sugar a day with splenda®, you'll save 100 calories a day. that could help you lose up to 10 pounds in a year. and now get even more with splenda® essentials, the only line of sweeteners with a small boost of fiber, or antioxidants, or b vitamins in every packet. just another reason why you get more... when you sweeten with splenda®. ♪ welcome back, everybody. we're talking about the latino vote here in the state of iowa. often people point out the state is very, very, very white, but the town of west liberty is majority hispanic yet none of the gop candidates have even campaigned there. let's bring back our guest this morning. jose is running for city council in west liberty. sara is a candidate for the house of representatives, and former editor of the newspaper, steve hanson is student of the west liberty community school district and ef lyvelyn is a r s resident. let's talk about this program where you do this dual language program. half the day the kids learn in spanish, half in english. was that difficult to get that started? was there push back? >> well, i wasn't around 14 years ago when it started. this is now the 14th year of the program and a very successful program. just this past spring we graduated the first class of seniors who went all the way through kindergarten to 12th grade, and from the stories i've heard in the beginning, of course, whenever you start something new, people have their doubts. but there are no more doubts today. 51% of our students in prekindergarten through fifth grade participate in the program. then when it gets to middle school the percentages drop a little bit as students choose electives to 33% and continues through high school. >> some people predicted that when you start catering for the language thing there would be white flight. actually we've seen the opposite of that, that people have come in. evelyn, for example, you moved from chicago to be part of this school, right? >> yes. and initially i was -- my son started in 1998 and he was part of the first graduating class. i remember late '90s, early 2000s there was an article titled white flight. and, for me, that was very frustrating because the resistance there was to the program. now we're having people, not only hispanics, we have caucasian people moving into town because they want their children to benefit from the program. they don't want to continue in society. they see the benefits of knowing a second language and with this program the children learn spanish, but later on it's easier for them to pick up a third or a fourth language. >> so what will you be doing this evening since the candidates have kind of ignored you? do you go and caucus? what will you do? >> i'm going to caucus for president obama and i intend to be part of his campaign in iowa. i'm going to go for the local legislature. and i think this is the beginning of an organizing effort in eastern iowa to get the spanish vote out. >> do you see a change in four years from now, in another four years from now, steve, do you see the candidates will be not only visiting west liberty but paying more attention to the latino vote in the state? >> well, i think so because i think more of the candidates will be latino in four years and eight years from now. the students that a school district such as west liberty are producing are going on to university and becoming leaders, and they want to come back home and they want to take responsibility. >> i appreciate the conversation, jose and sara and steve and ef lynn, thank you for talking to us. grab some coffee. stick around and watch the rest of our show. >> all right. well, ahead this morning, it is the first chance for voters to weigh in and the first chance for candidates, too, to figure out where they are and whether they're going to stick around to see what happens tomorrow. iowa's governor will join us straight ahead to tell us why the iowa caucuses matter. and then the reveal on rick santorum. no one has more momentum. some very influential evangelicals. we'll break it down for you. tylenol:nyquil. what are you doing? nyquil (stuffy): just reading your label. wait! you relieve nasal congestion? tylenol: sure. don't you? tylenol (another bottle): hmmm...no... nyquil (stuffy): dude! anncr vo: tylenol cold multi-symptom nighttime relieves nasal congestion... nyquil cold & flu doesn't. 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[ female announcer ] only from aveeno. can you enjoy vegetables with sauce i found a moisturizer for life. and still reach your weight loss goals? you can with green giant frozen vegetables. over twenty delicious varieties have sixty calories or less per serving and are now weight watchers-endorsed. try green giant frozen vegetables with sauce. welcome back to "starting point." i'm soledad o'brien. ahead in our next half hour, a boost for the winner, a wake-up call probably for the rest of the field. iowa's governor will talk to us about why iowa matters and what could happen tonight and then the reveal, something to think about. the evangelical forces behind rick santorum's surge. he's practically lived in witio during this race. we'll show you why. first, though, let's check in with christine romans. she has a look at the other sto stories making headlines this morning. i hope you're alternating between caffeinated and decaf there at the wave land cafe. in the news this morning fighting words from iran. the country says it will take action if the u.s. ship comes back to its post in the persian gulf right near the coast of iran. the ship left that post during iran's navy exercises. iran now says it will not repeat this warning to the united states. the iraq war vet suspected of killing a mt. rain iier park ranger has been found dead. 24-year-old benjamin barnes is believed to have died from cold weather exposure. barnes was on the run from s.w.a.t. teams, suspected of gunning down park ranger and mother of two, margaret anderson. vacation over. president obama thousand back in washington after that holiday in hawaii. the first family arrived to the white house just this morning. president obama is scheduled to speak to supporters in iowa tonight through a video teleconference. all right. u.s. markets back open today after being closed yesterday for the new year's holiday. stock futures for the dow, the nasdaq, the s&p 500, they're all up sharply this morning point to go a higher open to start off the new year. 0 okay. let's get a quick check of the weather and how that might impact your travel. meteorologist rob marciano joins us now. i get the verdict is to pack a sweat sweater. >> it may be a shock to the system coming back from hawaii to the northeast. cold air. lake effect snow pour down to the southeast. not quite as intense as yesterday but we will see about 5 or 10 inches on top of the 10 to 20 that some areas saw yesterday. all that cold air driving south. 8 degrees with the windchill in atlanta. 12 in birmingham. 30 degrees in jacksonville. hard freeze is expected through deep south florida overnight tonight. 29 degrees for the high temperature in new york city. it will be 38 degrees in atlanta. if you are traveling through new york, that's your problem spot because of wind. elsewhere, soledad, not too shabby in the center part of the country including iowa looks nice albeit cold. >> nice is always relative, isn't it, when you're talking cold. all right, rob. thank you very much. appreciate that. of course tonight it will be the first real test for the republican candidates, the first time voters actually start on the path to choosing who they would like too much the person to face off against president barack obama winning iowa. clearly the first step in a very long process. the state's governor, though, tells this first in the nation caucus really matters. terry branstad, it's nice to have you. appreciate you joining us in the diner this morning. i'm going to be in clive tonight. describe what i'm going to see. chaos? big numbers? small numbers? what do you think? >> i think you're going to see a record turnout for the republican caucus in iowa. >> 150,000 people? >> well, over 120,000. i'm estimating 130,000. the most is 118,400. so i think there's a lot of are. iowa launched obama. i think iowans want to sink obama. they're not happy. they feel the country is going in the wrong direction. the national debt has gone up more than a trillion each year he's been president. we need to invest, take the risk to create jobs and revitalized the private sector economy in this country. we in iowa just feel that we're going the wrong direction and we need a new leader. >> what's your prediction for tonight? everyone is talking about santorum's momentum. is he the person who has launched this evening? >> it's done the right thing. he went to alm 99 counties. he's methodically worked very hard. he spent more time and met more people in iowa and he's made a good impression. he got the endorsement of our young secretary of state, matt schultz, the youngest secretary of state in the state's history. i think he has a good chance. however, i also think romney has come on strong at the end and obviously ron paul has a strong organization here as well. >> that's a great political answer. i daresay everybody -- >> well, if you look at the iowa poll, ann seltzer does the iowa poll, she has probably been the most accurate predictor of outcomes in the country. so i really believe the poll says this is going to be a very close race. it comes to turnout and the undecideds, who is the most persuasive? >> so when newt gingrich tells me, yeah, i could win it, anything could happen. >> it's possible. it's definitely possible. >> everybody is deciding, literally, now, tonight. >> well, because i'm the governor and i want to be a good host, and i think the iowa caucuses are important. we want everybody to feel welcome. we want it to be a fair contest, and we want iowa to really whittle the field and help begin the process of choosing a new leader for the united states. >> i had a couple people from occupy iowa and occupy des moines on the set a little bit earlier today and they told me that they have no plans to really try to disrupt the caucusing. are you worried still? >> that's good. >> i know you moved the vote count. >> they've done a good job of providing security and making sure that people get an opportunity to participate, and i'm glad to hear that. i think they've been trying to disrupt candidates' events. i think that's unfortunate. everybody ought to be entitled to hear the candidates and make their own decision and not be disrupted. i'm glad to hear they don't intend to disrupt the caucus. i live -- my wife and i have a log home in boone county. boone is rural precinct number four. >> and everybody leaves your state and heads to new hampshire. >> this is a battleground state. we intend to do all we can to help elect a republican president this election. >> governor branstad, thank you for talking to us this morning. right back to our panel, candy crowley, the chief political correspondent, and host of "state of the union." notice how smoothly i'm talking and sliding into my medicare here. thank you very much. i appreciate that. paul begala is joining us as well, and also former speechwriter for president george bush, george w. bush, and alex is joining us again. so let's talk about what the governor just said. basically he said anybody could win it. newt gingrich told that same thing to me this morning. do you think that's realistic, the bottom tier of this could have a big showing? >> i think there will be various definitions of win as there always are coming out of iowa. i think if you see a lot of bunch up around third place that fifth will become the new third. that we will see 11%, 12%, 13% in there. more people coming out of iowa with a ticket. we don't know what the turnout will be. the weather is going to be okay. nobody has to jump over a snow bank. it's mild in iowa terms. i don't think anybody can win it. i think you have to look at the poll and see basically the first three. >> spent the morning talking me out of the polls. who pays attention to polls? >> why bother to ask people what they're going to do and then believe them? polls don't matter. all the front-runners are telling you they will end up third. then you look at the people -- >> setting expectations. >> that's what happens on election day. they are all clustered, things to look forward to today. romney, the intensity of romney's voters, they're the establishment voters. they vote out of habit not passion. are they going to come out today? the other candidates, santorum, they are passionate voters. they're the old huckabee voters. are they going to come out? you can bet they probably will. santorum has more head room. >> do you think he's the lead story, the surge of santorum? >> the way the governor described it reminded me of the end of my some's little league trophy where they gave a trophy to every single kid. each is excellent in his own way. he's gone to the most possible campaign. he's expected to win in new hampshire. if ron paul wins, then we have the freakout because he is so unacceptable to the rest of the party, so embarrassing to this state. if santorum wins, then iowa is a blank page for new hampshire. >> so newt gingrich said at one point i'm not going to win it and then, of course, people who have to kau can cuss him tonight talk about freakouts. and then he backed away. >> think before i speak. think before i speak. >> talk to me about newt gingrich. he said it's the negative ads that have really hurt. look at that eye roll. that was the most dramatic of the morning. >> newt gingrich complaining about negative ads is like shamu complaining about water. the it's what he does. that's the millieu in which he exists. there are few people out-of-his family, who are very charming, love newt gingrich. so for him to be complaining, by the way, those ads have been accurate. he did do an ad with nancy pelosi. he did receive a fine from the ethics committee. >> it's only going to get worse. if hes to survive to go and become the national candidate it only gets uglier and more negative. >> somebody is going to have to win this thing sooner or later they'd like to do it. let me disagree on one thing about the passion coming out. i think and paul and i talked about it yesterday, i think there is passion for mitt romney and the passion is who can win this thing? and i think that's what is motivating, that's where the passion is for mitt romney. >> we will know tonight, won't we, as we start because there is that big number of people who say they're willing to change their minds. i want to thank you for sticking around. we'll see you tonight, too, on cnn. our american people segment straight ahead. folks will be thinking about the big vote tonight and of course rick santorum gets a hefty endorsement from a big family here in iowa. coming up i'll reveal who it is. 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[ female announcer ] only from aveeno. welcome back, everybody. you've heard from the candidates. lord, have we heard from the candidates. the and we've heard from the pup ditz a lot. now to actual iowans thinking about what they're going to do this evening. our first guest is troy murphy. soledad. nice to meet you. thank you for talking to us. tell me, are you republican, democrat, where do you stand? >> i'm a republican and i am going to caucus. >> where are you going to caucus? >> in west des moines. and not only is it important to go to the caucus to pick the candidate but there's also a platform agendas that need to be decided on tonight as well. people who sit around and complain about the government and what our officials are doing and they don't participate, that's part of the problem. >> tonight's their chance in addition to sort of making the first vote for the republican nominee potentially, you also are creating all these other conversations about the platform, et cetera? >> exactly. and that goes for both republ republicans and democrats. >> so who are you leaning towards or do you know who you're going to vote for? >> i'm pretty certain i'm going for mitt romney. >> why pretty certain? there have been 13 debates. what more does someone need to tell you to say, yes, this ises my guy. >> if i could put it together for one candidate, we would have a super candidate. >> so you're disappointed a little bit in the candidates? >> i wouldn't say disappointed. some of them have some very good ideas. i think ron paul is way out there. i'm retired military. >> that's interesting. most people who are active military support him fund-raising wise. those retired not so much. >> i just retired in june of 2011. and so my friends deployed, my brother deployed, just came back in august, and so our friends who deployed, they say the same thing that i do. that ron paul is out there a little bit. >> who could you be talked into if it ends up you are sort of, kind of for mitt romney, who would be your second choice? who could someone convincingly talk you out of mitt romney for? >> my second choice, if i had to have a second choice, would be rick santorum. newt gingrich, you know, in 1996 with the ethics committee -- >> that was a big problem for you? >> oh, yeah. i've heard him speak on tv and he thinks this issue coming up and this campaign and mitt romney's pac, the american people aren't that stupid. they remember what happened. i remember it on social networking sites before it came up as far as commercials go. >> well, i thank you. i'll let you get back to your coffee. to the next guest at the counter. stacy and ryan. i'll crouch because there's no real place for me to sit. tell mae, have you decided -- politically, where are you. >> politically i'm a republican. i'm a tea party republican and actually i'm a candidate for the iowa state house and they just decided, i mean, last night at about 8:30. >> really? what was the thing that pushed you over last night at 8:30? >> well, there's so much going on in the last couple of days. there are so many mailers and political rhetoric. >> who are you going to support? >> bachmann actually because after all the politics i've been hit with, i went back to where i started which was look iing at e candidate's bare record. how they're going to govern is shown in that record and her record is clean. >> okay. we're going to take a short break. we are right back with more right after this. are those great-tasting little o's made from carefully selected oats that can help lower cholesterol. is it a superhero? kinda. ♪ you tell us what you want to pay, and we give you a range of coverages to choose from. who is she? that's flobot. she's this new robot we're trying out, mostly for, like, small stuff. wow! look at her go! she's pretty good. she's pretty good. hey, flobot, great job. oops. [ powers down ] uh-oh, flobot is broken. the "name your price" tool, only from progressive. call or click today. time now for the reveal. a little inside information that might change the conventional way you're looking at a news story. today the surge by presidential candidate rick santorum. since the summer he's basically lived in iowa visiting every county, shaking hands, kissing babies. this weekend's "des moines register" poll shows a surprising surge into third place. the more interesting part of that poll, though, is the last two days of it, which showed santorum was surging into second place, so what is the power behind santorum's rise? it must be a big political and newspaper endorsement or something like that, right? here is the reveal. not one major politician or newspaper has gotten behind rick santorum. the only politician who has endorsed him is matt schultz. we spoke to him yesterday on our program, in fact. our cnn political insider poll conducted this past weekend had every candidate being selected to win except rick santorum. that's the opposite of candidates like mitt romney who received big political endorsements from politicians and newspapers alike, names like chris christi and nikki haley and president george h.w. bush. so where is santorum's power coming from? from the people, people like the duggar family, the family with all those many, many, many children. they support santorum because of his christian values and his business. since they endorsed san are tore up yesterday, a lot of votes in one family, and at least for santorum, they come with instant name recognition and that has helped give his campaign a boost. after the break, what we learned on "starting point" today. forty years ago, he wasn't looking for financial advice. back then he had something more important to do. he wasn't focused on his future. but fortunately, somebody else was. at usaa we provide retirement planning for our military, veterans and their families. now more than ever, it's important to get financial advice from people who share your military values. for our free usaa retirement guide, call 877-242-usaa. i want healthy skin for life. 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[ female announcer ] aveeno daily moisturizing lotion. and for healthy, beautiful hair, try nourish plus haircare. only from aveeno. welcome back, everybody. end point now, what is the big takeaway? what does it all mean? paul begala, what does it mean, everyone is going to head for the polls tomorrow morning we'll be crunching all the numbers? >> it's the head and the heart and a lot of primaries are this way. the heart of iowa conservatives seems to be with rick santorum. on social issues. it's not where the kcountry is. the country wants to focus on jobs. that's probably where their heads are. i think that's why we have this muddle. they can't really decide. do they want someone who will focus on the economy, mitt r romney, or somebody who is going to be really strong on the social issues like rick santo m santorum? >> is that indecision going to prove to be a problem for the republican party down the road? if you lack that passion for the gay, doesn't that correlate, or woman, doesn't that correlate eventually to lower numbers, et cetera, et cetera? >> well, the numbers have been low. gone to events here that turnouts have been relatively small. mitt romney's final rally. it looked big but was hemmed in by boxes. republican races tend to sort out relatively quickly and i wonder if this will be to revert to type. if romney wins here, if he wins in hnew hampshire, the money -- >> it's done? >> the money disappears for the others except for ron paul who has his own special base of support and the party converges on some of the actions. >> what's the takeaway for today? >> i think that's the big story that mitt romney may win this thing early. by the time we get to florida, he may be the perfect candidate to run against barack obama because he's hard to love here in iowa. romney and obama would be more about obama and a referendum on him. the other thing i've learned this week watching iowa, this is the land of the living dead. you can't can kill a candidate anymore in the race. guys who were dead a week ago come back. guys who were dead -- seriously, you put a stake through their heart -- >> why is that? >> they get media coverage. the lapped nd of the internet. >> when i was interviewing some people, the candidates, they counter like i really just want the composite candidate, a little of this, a little of that. that doesn't exist. >> and they can't have a composite candidate and that's why tonight you just either look and say either he doesn't match my views but i think he can win or he matches my views and, therefore, the hard thing again. this is either the beginning of the end of the republican contest if mitt romney wins. if he doesn't, i think you're still -- if it's ron paul, i think people immediately negate iowa and so, well, that doesn't matter. we move to new hampshire. game on. >> a ron paul win here might converge the party on mitt romney faster even than romney win. >> how about a santorum great showing? a lot of people predicted the headline tomorrow will be the momentum of rick santorum. so what happens then? mitt romney starts with the ads? >> i can tell you if you're in the romney camp, it wouldn't be bad news because you think that rick perry and newt gingrich, two guys who could have beaten you are now out of the picture. again, unless they rise from the coffin again. you think this is a good hand of cards going forward. >> the headline is mike huckabee wins the iowa caucuses. >> republicans want a candidate that's equal to our fears, who fear we're losing this country. this country is in a huge decline and we're going to become something less than we've been. they want somebody. there isn't such a guy out there this time. >> i'm in the race for the long haul, is that just not true? >> it's certainly not true for perry or gingrich if they don't do well because they need to finance themselves, and the financing -- >> michele bachmann? >> perry's financing has stopped and gingrich hasn't been that great. there are other candidates, if you are a minor candidate and you play your cards right, this could be a powerful income source. this could be a revenue generator. and that's the way the paul family approaches presidential politics. it is an income source. they will be in to the end. >> perry could be having back problems some time early next week and i think retire from the race. >> candidates are always definitely in the race until they get out. >> who is running against romney? it always comes town to the ultimate nominee and some alternative and they battle it out. we

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